Marketing Research on Customer Preference for Hul by rsc12924

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									                           RESEARCH



                    TWO-WHEELER INDUSTRY                                                                                                  Sector View - Positive


                    FMCG Model At A Discount                                                                                                                                  12 October 2010

                    The Indian two-wheeler industry has undergone a complete
                    makeover over the last two decades with entry of Japanese
                    manufacturers. The geared scooters, which used to dominate
                    the industry, have been totally replaced by fuel efficient and                                   Two-Wheelers Industry Growth
                    stylish motorcycles. In the last couple of years the industry
                                                                                                                        2-w heeler Sales (mn units)                                                         Grow th %
                    seems to be entering a maturing phase with rationality in players'
                                                                                                       10.0                                                                                                                30
                    behaviour and improvement in profitability. This evolvement of
                    the two-wheeler industry is on the line of FMCG industry. Two-                      7.5                                                                                                                20
                    wheelers has attained a status of essentials due to the need for                            .
                    personal mobility and inadequate public transportation system                       5.0                                                                                                                10
                    in the country. Despite an overall household penetration level of
                    45%, the industry continues to grow in double digits due to                         2.5                                                                                                                0
                    demand from under penetrated rural markets and shortening
                                                                                                        0.0                                                                                                                (10)
                    replacement cycle. Indian two-wheeler industry has lots of




                                                                                                                                                                                                             H1FY11
                                                                                                                                                    FY01
                                                                                                                                                              FY03

                                                                                                                                                                      FY05
                                                                                                                                                                                  FY07

                                                                                                                                                                                               FY09
                                                                                                                    FY1995

                                                                                                                                FY1997
                                                                                                                                         FY1999
                    similarity to FMCG business and despite that they trade at a
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW




                    significant discount to the companies in FMCG industry.
                    Branding is the key: Branding plays a major role in product
                    differentiation in an industry where there are marginal differences                                                           Valuation Gap
                    in the products based on technology and features.                                   32
                    Low capex requirement: Two-wheeler industry like FMCG, is
                    low on capex requirement and due to this, companies have                            24
                    impressive cash accruals which they are using to reward the
                    shareholders through dividends.                                                     16
                    Negative working capital: Vendors are important part of the
                                                                                                            8
                    business and besides raw materials they also provide working
                    capital to the business. Due to this, two-wheeler industry works                        0




                                                                                                                                                                                               HERO HONDA
                    on negative working capital like their counterparts in FMCG
                                                                                                                                    HUL

                                                                                                                                                  ITC



                                                                                                                                                                     DABUR
                                                                                                                       NESTLE




                                                                                                                                                           COLGATE



                                                                                                                                                                                  BAJAJ AUTO



                                                                                                                                                                                                               TVS MOTOR
                    sector.
                    High return ratios: Low capex requirement, negative working
                    capital coupled with high dividend payout provide high return on
                    equity for the two-wheeler industry.
                    Wide differential in valuations: Despite a lot of similarities in
                    the business model, there is a wide gap in valuations of two-
                    wheeler companies as compared to FMCG industry. While
                    FMCG companies have been trading at a multiple of 22-23x one                       Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA
                    year forward P/E ratio, two-wheeler stocks are trading in the                      vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in
                    range of 15-16x one year forward P/E ratio. We believe that this                   Tel: +91-22-6618 6388

                    differential will gradually narrow down with two-wheeler industry                  Nikhil Deshpande
                    moving up on the valuation matrix. Our top picks in the sector                     nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
                    are Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto.                                                     Tel: +91-22-6618 6339


                    Sector Summary
                     KEY FINANCIALS
                                           CMP        Mkt Cap    Net sales (Rs mn)         EPS (Rs)                               P/E (x)                              TP
                        Company                                                                                                                                                                         Rating
                                           (Rs)      (USD mn)    FY11E     FY12E      FY11E      FY12E               FY11E                        FY12E               (Rs)
                    Bajaj Auto             1,522       9,879    161,510 188,161          88.8     103.0                  17.1                     14.8               1,854                                  BUY
                    Hero Honda             1,874       8,393    176,083 197,714         113.6      128.1                 16.5                     14.6               2,305                                  BUY
                    TVS Motor                 75         797      61,670    69,633        4.5         5.3                16.6                     14.1                       85                        HOLD

                                 PINC Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Bloomberg PINV <GO>
                   RESEARCH




                                   FMCG model at a discount
Two-wheeler business               The Indian two-wheeler sector is fast changing its DNA and is emerging as more of marketing
evolving as a brand play…          play with companies selling products based on brand equity. The dividing lines between
                                   competitors based on technology are dissolving swiftly with a brand-based theme evolving
                                   across the sector. This theme has been well demonstrated by HH through the positioning
                                   of its Splendor and Passion brands. Splendor is the largest selling motorcycle in India and
                                   this brand has been built over the past 14 years. The brand has almost managed to
                                   dissociate itself from HH. Borrowing from the Splendor experience, BJAUT is creating two
                                   separate brands, Pulsar and Discover. Both have been positioned independently, targeting
                                   specific customer segments.

                                   The two-wheeler population in India is currently estimated at ~100mn units. This presents
                                   a large replacement market especially in a scenario of a shortening replacement cycle.
                                   Despite a large two-wheeler population, there is an ample scope for growth in the industry
                                   due to lack of an efficient public transportation system in the country. Even in cities with a
                                   good public transportation system, two-wheelers continue to retain their importance for
                                   last mile connectivity. Rural India is another opportunity for the industry, where the penetration
                                   levels are quite low, indicating further scope for growth.

                                   2-wheeler business - Evolving as a FMCG play

                                   Over the past few years, the Indian two-wheeler business has evolved along the lines of an
                                   FMCG business. There are a number of similarities between the two businesses.
Capex requirement reduced                  Low capex requirement: Similar to FMCG, the two-wheeler industry has adopted
for two-wheeler industry…                  an asset-light model with a significant portion of value addition happening at the vendor's
                                           end. This has led to low capex requirement for two-wheeler manufacturers and greater
                                           reliance on component suppliers. Over the past five years, BJAUT and HH have invested
                                           only 2.45% and 3.18% of their top line, respectively, in capex. During the same period,
                                           net sales for the companies grew at a CAGR of 14.9% and 16.3% respectively. In
                                           comparison, Maruti Suzuki in the passenger car segment recorded an average capex
                                           of 7.5% of net sales over the past four years.

                                     Capex as Percentage of Sales (5 years avg.)
                                           12


                                           9


                                           6
                                     (%)




                                           3


                                           0
                                                                                                                           HONDA
                                                              HUL




                                                                        ITC




                                                                                             DABUR
                                                   NESTLE




                                                                                  COLGATE




                                                                                                                                         MOTOR
                                                                                                     BAJAJ
                                                                                                             AUTO


                                                                                                                    HERO




                                                                                                                                   TVS




                                   Source: Company, PINC Research




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                      2
                   RESEARCH




Working capital negative due                Negative working capital cycle: With a distribution model in place and a strong supply
to credit provided by                       chain, two-wheeler OEMs have been able to maintain a negative working capital cycle
vendors…                                    akin to FMCG players. Average working capital for BJAUT and HH over the past five years
                                            has been at net payables of 25 days and 11 days respectively. Net working capital for
                                            Nestle, Hindustan Uniliver, and Colgate is above 50 days payable.

                                     Net Working Capital (5 years avg.)
                                             60



                                             30
                                     Days




                                              0




                                                                                                                                       HONDA
                                                              HUL




                                                                        ITC




                                                                                                        DABUR
                                                    NESTLE




                                                                                        COLGATE




                                                                                                                 BAJAJ




                                                                                                                                                     MOTOR
                                                                                                                         AUTO


                                                                                                                                HERO




                                                                                                                                               TVS
                                            (30)



                                            (60)

                                    Source: Company, PINC Research

                                            Zero debt and strong cash accruals from operations: Most of the FMCG and two-
                                            wheeler companies have zero debt and strong cash flow accruals from the business,
                                            which enable them to reward shareholders through high dividend payout. Over the
                                            years, two-wheeler companies have created a huge amount of cash reserves on their
                                            balance sheets.

High dividend payout                        High and consistent dividend payout: Two-wheeler companies have consistently
maximising shareholders                     maintained a high dividend payout ratio, in line with the FMCG companies.
return…                                     Consequently, these companies have been able to maintain a high return on equity
                                            (RoE). Multinational FMCG players such as Nestle, Hindustan Unilever and Colgate
                                            have been able to maintain superior RoE of ~100% due to a high payout ratio of more
                                            than 70% over the past five years. Companies such as Dabur and Marico, which are
                                            in an aggressive expansion phase, have moderate dividend payouts of ~50% and
                                            delivered RoE of ~50%. In the two-wheelers sector, BJAUT and HH, with a payout
                                            ratio of ~45%, have sustained RoE at 40-60%.

                                     Dividend Payout Ratio and ROE (5 years Avg.)
                                                                              Div idend Pay out Ratio           ROE
                                            120


                                             90


                                             60
                                     (%)




                                             30


                                              0
                                                                                                                                       HONDA
                                                               HUL



                                                                         ITC




                                                                                                        DABUR
                                                     NESTLE




                                                                                         COLGATE




                                                                                                                                                     MOTOR
                                                                                                                 BAJAJ
                                                                                                                         AUTO


                                                                                                                                HERO




                                                                                                                                               TVS




                                   Source: Company, PINC Research
vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                  3
                   RESEARCH




Two-wheeler growth in-line                 Similarity in growth rates: FMCG has a matured business model with steady growth
with FMCG…                                 rates given the essential nature of the products. Similarly, two-wheelers in the Indian
                                           markets have emerged as a crucial product since they offer a quicker mode of
                                           transportation. Over the past five years, comparing sales growth of major FMCG
                                           companies with that of two-wheeler players indicates that growth in both industries
                                           are in a similar range although FMCG rates are steadier.

                                     Net Sales Growth
                                                             NESTLE                HUL                             ITC                          COLGATE
                                                             DABUR                 BAJAJ AUTO                      HERO HONDA                   TVS MOTOR
                                           40


                                           25
                                     (%)




                                           10


                                            (5)


                                           (20)
                                                   FY04               FY05         FY06             FY07             FY08             FY09            FY10

                                    Source: Company, PINC Research

                                           Wide gap in valuations: Despite similar business models, growth rates, and returns,
                                           valuations of the two-wheeler sector have always been at a steep discount to those of
                                           the FMCG sector. While the FMCG sector trades at 22-23x one-year forward earnings,
                                           the two-wheeler sector has traded at ~15-16x one-year forward earnings. We believe
                                           that given the consistency in the two-wheeler business, the sector appears set for a
                                           re-rating, leading to higher valuations.

                                     P/E Ratio
                                            32


                                            24


                                            16
                                     (x)




                                              8


                                              0
                                                                                                                                              HONDA
                                                                  HUL




                                                                             ITC




                                                                                                           DABUR
                                                    NESTLE




                                                                                          COLGATE




                                                                                                                                                            MOTOR
                                                                                                                       BAJAJ
                                                                                                                               AUTO


                                                                                                                                       HERO




                                                                                                                                                      TVS




                                   Source: Bloomberg Estimate, PINC Research




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                         4
                   RESEARCH




                                   Trends in the Indian two-wheeler industry

                                   Volumes - Robust growth across segments
Two-wheeler industry back on       Following a brief pause during FY07-09, the Indian two-wheeler industry has made a strong
growth track post                  comeback during the past 18 months with growth of more than 25%. Besides domestic
disappointment during
FY08-09…                           demand, exports have been a significant contributor to the growth of the Indian two-wheeler
                                   industry. The past five years have been eventful with significant changes in customer
                                   preference and industry macro trends. Some of these major trends include the following:

                                         Scooters have made a strong comeback with growth outperforming overall two-wheeler
                                         sector growth

                                         In motorcycles, the economy segment has taken a back-seat, giving way to executive
                                         and premium segments.

                                         Reliance of the two-wheelers industry on financing has seen a significant dip.

                                         Indian companies have been able to expand their global footprint, taking on competition
                                         from Japan and China.

                                         Strong demand and capacity constraints are helping the industry avert undercutting,
                                         engendering high profitability.

                                   Motorcycles retain their dominance, but scooters make a strong comeback
Scooters outperforming             The Indian two-wheeler industry was dominated by scooters until late-1990s. In mid-1980s,
industry growth…                   Japanese two-wheeler companies entered the Indian market with fuel-efficient motorcycles,
                                   which changed the face of the industry. By the turn of the century, motorcycles overtook
                                   scooters and now constitute more than 80% of two-wheeler composition. However, over
                                   the past five years, scooters have made a strong comeback as a second vehicle with a
                                   strong customer base in teenage and female groups. The product itself has undergone a
                                   complete makeover with geared scooters giving way to non-geared ones.


                                     2-Wheeler Market Composition
                                                       Mopeds            Scooters           Motorcy cles          Scooter Contribution % (RHS)
                                       100%                                                                                                         60


                                        75%                                                                                                         45


                                        50%                                                                                                         30


                                        25%                                                                                                         15


                                         0%                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                           H1FY11
                                              FY1993



                                                       FY1995



                                                                FY1997



                                                                            FY1999



                                                                                     FY01



                                                                                                  FY03



                                                                                                           FY05



                                                                                                                      FY07



                                                                                                                                 FY09




                                    Source: SIAM




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                              5
                   RESEARCH




Entry of new players in            Scooter - Emulating the Activa
scooter segment stimulating
demand…                            The scooter segment has seen strong traction with increasing options for customers. In
                                   H1FY11, scooter sales have grown at an incredible 44.4% compared with 25.9% for two
                                   wheelers. HMSI, the market leader, has been facing severe production constraints and the
                                   waiting period for its flagship product Activa has reached six months.

                                   The revival of the segment was solely led by Activa following the era of BJAUT's geared
                                   scooters. However, lately, competitors have had a good run in the light of Activa's production
                                   constraints. Products benefiting the most have been TVSL's newly launched Wego and
                                   M&M's Rodeo and Duro. In H1FY11, M&M has been able to garner 7.3% market share.
                                   While TVSL has been able to maintain market share at 21%, HMSI's share declined
                                   645bps to 45.2%.

                                     Scooter Sales Growth
                                                                                        Scooter Sales                    Grow th (RHS)
                                                      1,600                                                                                                   50



                                                      1,200                                                                                                   35
                                      (Units '000s)




                                                       800                                                                                                    20




                                                                                                                                                                   (%)
                                                       400                                                                                                    5



                                                            0                                                                                                 (10)
                                                                 FY02    FY03    FY04      FY05         FY06    FY07   FY08     FY09        FY10   H1FY11

                                    Source: SIAM



                                     Scooter Marketshare (%)
                                                                        HH          HMSI                 TVSM           Kinetic Motor/M&M            Others
                                                       80

                                                                                Bajaj Auto Dominance
                                                       60
                                      (%)




                                                       40


                                                       20


                                                        0
                                                                FY01    FY02    FY03      FY04     FY05         FY06   FY07    FY08      FY09      FY10     H1FY11

                                    Source: SIAM




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                              6
                   RESEARCH




BJAUT made a strong come           Motorcycle - BJAUT presses the accelerator
back with new branding
                                   With the economy turning a new leaf in H2FY10, motorcycle sales have seen strong
strategy…
                                   uptick. During H2FY10, motorcycle sales were up 38% to 3.8mn units. In H1FY11,
                                   motorcycle sales have grown by 22.5% with BJAUT being a major contributor with a 61%
                                   growth. Compared with BJAUT, market leader HH has seen a growth of 7.0%, and in the
                                   process, it ceded 776bps market share. BJAUT and HMSI have been beneficiaries of this
                                   loss of market share with both of them gaining 666bps and 167bps respectively.
                                   However, for BJAUT, this increase is basically covering the ground it lost after FY07; when
                                   its market share peaked at 31.8% with volumes of 2mn units while that of HH hit a low of
                                   48.1%. In FY08-09, BJAUT went through a rough patch, losing market share to HH even
                                   as the combined share remained constant at ~80% levels. For BJAUT, recovery started in
                                   H2FY10.
                                   In FY03, TVSL was looking to challenge BJAUT for the second spot with a product portfolio
                                   of Victor and Fiero. However, successive products failed to make much impact and, in the
                                   current year, the company was relegated to the fourth spot with HMSI moving up the
                                   ladder.

                                     Motorcycle Sales Growth
                                                                                          Motorcy cle Sales              Grow th (RHS)
                                                     8,000                                                                                                45



                                                     6,000                                                                                                30
                                     (Units '000s)




                                                     4,000                                                                                                15




                                                                                                                                                               (%)
                                                     2,000                                                                                                0



                                                          0                                                                                               (15)
                                                                FY02    FY03        FY04       FY05      FY06   FY07   FY08      FY09    FY10   H1FY11

                                    Source: SIAM



                                     Motorcycle Marketshare
                                                                              HH                      TVSM               BJAUT                  OTHERS
                                                     80



                                                     60
                                        (%)




                                                     40



                                                     20



                                                      0
                                                              FY01     FY02        FY03      FY04      FY05     FY06   FY07    FY08      FY09   FY10     H1FY11

                                    Source: SIAM


vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                          7
                   RESEARCH




Economy segment losing its         Market Share
charm due to low
profitability…                     Economy Segment - To be or not to be

                                   The economy or the entry level segment accounts for ~20% of domestic motorcycle volumes.
                                   However, leading manufacturers devote less effort to the segment owing to its low margins.
                                   In 2008, BJAUT took a stance to exit the segment and consequently the company's
                                   market share currently stands at ~23%, from the high 30% levels in 2008. TVSL too
                                   discontinued Max and currently has only a single product, i.e. Star, in the segment. The
                                   company plans to re-launch Max, especially for the rural segment. HH's model, CD Dawn,
                                   is the market leader in the segment; its market share has gone up to 50% benefiting from
                                   slack competitors.

                                     Economy Segment Market Share
                                                                                                 BJAUT                                                       HH                                               TVSL
                                            60


                                            45
                                      (%)




                                            30


                                            15


                                             0
                                                                   Oct-08


                                                                                     Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                               Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-09
                                                 Aug-08
                                                          Sep-08




                                                                                              Jan-09
                                                                                                       Feb-09


                                                                                                                         Apr-09
                                                                                                                Mar-09



                                                                                                                                           Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                             Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-10
                                                                            Nov-08




                                                                                                                                  May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-10
                                    Source: Crisil Research
                                   Executive Segment - Bajaj 'Discovering' growth

BJAUT posing serious               The executive segment, which accounts for two third of the motorcycle market, has been
challenge to HH’s                  a stronghold for HH. The company with two powerful brands, Splendor and Passion, has
stronghold…                        been a dominant player in the segment. With its much hyped XCD platform, BJAUT had
                                   aimed to challenge HH in the executive segment. However, after initial success, the product
                                   failed to retain interest. The other BJAUT brand in the segment Discover 135cc then enjoyed
                                   a limited share of ~5%. Inline with its two brand policy the company made Discover its
                                   flagship brand in the executive segment and translating into a slow death for XCD platform.
                                   Discover 100cc, launched in Aug-09, drove the company's market share over the 20%
                                   mark.

                                   HMSI is the third largest player in the segment with a 10% market share. The company
                                   has three products in the segment: Shine, Stunner and Twister. TVSL has marginal presence
                                   in the segment as Flame has failed to generate any significant interest.




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8
                   RESEARCH




                                     Executive Segment Market Share
                                                                                                                          BJAUT                                                   HH                                               HMSI
                                            100


                                            75




                                      (%)
                                            50


                                            25


                                             0

                                                                       Oct-08


                                                                                          Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-09
                                                     Aug-08
                                                              Sep-08




                                                                                                   Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                       Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-10
                                                                                                            Feb-09
                                                                                                                     Mar-09
                                                                                                                               Apr-09


                                                                                                                                                 Jun-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                          Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-10
                                                                                Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-09
                                                                                                                                        May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May-10
                                    Source: Crisil Research
                                   Premium Segment - Challenging the Pulsar

Product innovation remains         Since its launch in the 2001, Pulsar, the flagship brand of BJAUT, has maintained its
critical for premium               numero uno spot in the premium segment. The brand has a 50% market share in the
segment…                           segment. BJAUT through launch of facelifts and variants has been able to retain the product's
                                   aspiration levels. CBZ (HH), Apache (TVSL) and Unicorn (HMSI) have been major
                                   competitors for the brand over the years. HH continues to have a 20% market share while
                                   TVSL and HMSI each hold on to ~8-9%. Yamaha's FZ16 is the newest challenge to the
                                   Pulsar. After its launch in Oct'08, when it received good initial reviews, the FZ had managed
                                   to grab market share from Pulsar reducing it to 45% levels. BJAUT's latest gamble on the
                                   Pulsar brand was the launch of the 135cc variant. Initial scepticism of brand dilution passed
                                   away as the model pushed BJAUT's market share back above the 50% level.

                                     Premium Segment Market Share
                                                                                      BJAUT                                   HH                               TVSL                                       HMSI                                        OTHERS
                                            60


                                            45


                                            30
                                      (%)




                                            15


                                             0
                                                                             Oct-08


                                                                                               Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-09
                                                  Jul-08
                                                           Aug-08
                                                                    Sep-08




                                                                                                        Jan-09
                                                                                                                 Feb-09
                                                                                                                          Mar-09
                                                                                                                                   Apr-09


                                                                                                                                                     Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                              Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-10
                                                                                      Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-09
                                                                                                                                            May-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May-10




                                    Source: Crisil Research




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9
                   RESEARCH




                                   Financiers taking a cautious approach
Financing for the two-wheeler      Two-wheeler finance has seen various hurdles such as low ticket size, high operating
business remains low…              costs and higher delinquency. After a bitter experience in FY07-08, financiers have taken
                                   a more cautious approach this time around. Two-wheeler finance penetration had dipped
                                   to an all-time low of 15% for a brief period during FY09, from a high of 56% in FY08.
                                   Currently lenders have started coming back into the market but with a more rational
                                   approach. Financing levels have risen to 25% but continue to be low. The growth achieved
                                   in the past 12 months has been sans high financing penetration and hence is more
                                   sustainable.

                                     Finance Penetration for Two Wheelers
                                                                   Finance Penetration (%)        LTV (%)
                                           80


                                           60
                                     (%)




                                           40


                                           20


                                           0
                                                    FY08E          FY09E               FY10E      FY11P            FY12P

                                   Source: Crisil, PINC Research


                                   Beyond Indian Shores

Indian companies are               BJAUT is a pioneer in taking the Indian two-wheeler industry beyond domestic markets.
extending their presence in        The company started exports with the SAARC countries and moved on to South East
global two-wheeler market…         Asia, Africa and Latin America. Currently, it exports one out of every three motorcycles it
                                   produces. In Africa, the company competed against the Japanese OEMs and Chinese
                                   manufacturers to create a space for itself. More than 50% of its exports are currently to
                                   Africa. Latin America is the next big opportunity, where the company is moving into bigger
                                   markets of Brazil and Argentina. It also has plans for Europe where it would develop products
                                   in association with KTM.

                                   Indonesia is the third largest market for two-wheelers. Both BJAUT and TVSL have
                                   established subsidiaries in the country and have major plans. BJAUT primarily markets its
                                   premium product Pulsar while TVSL has presence with Apache in the premium segment.
                                   TVSL has also launched a step-thru product, which is the preferred type of 2-wheeler in
                                   Indonesia.




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                   10
                   RESEARCH




                                     Two Wheeler Exports
                                                                       Ex ports (LHS)           Grow th % (RHS)               Contribution % (RHS)
                                                   1.2                                                                                                      80.0



                                                   0.9                                                                                                      60.0

                                                     U

                                     Units mn
                                                   0.6                                                                                                      40.0




                                                                                                                                                                   (%)
                                                   0.3                                                                                                      20.0



                                                   0.0                                                                                                      0.0
                                                         FY01   FY02    FY03     FY04    FY05     FY06    FY07       FY08      FY09    FY10 H1FY11

                                   Source: SIAM

                                   Pressed for Capacity
Capacity constraints               Due to high demand, the two-wheeler industry is facing severe capacity constraints. All
restricting undercutting in the    the major manufacturers are currently facing problems in meeting the demand as there
industry…
                                   has not been any major capex by the industry in last two years. The problem is aggravated
                                   further due to constraints being faced by leading auto component suppliers. The suppliers
                                   have been under severe financial strain in the last few years due to falling profitability and
                                   low utilisation levels. Liquidity crisis increased the problems for vendors further thus restricting
                                   investment in the business.

                                   The silver lining out of this scenario is the pricing discipline which is being maintained in
                                   the two-wheeler market. Due to paucity of capacity, there is no incentive for any player to
                                   undercut thus leading to higher profitability for the industry.

                                     Monthly Capacity and Production (6 months Avg.)
                                                                                  Capacity                        Production (YTD Av g)
                                                   500



                                                   375
                                     Units '000s




                                                   250



                                                   125



                                                     0
                                                                 HH                      BJAUT                         TVSL                          HMSI

                                    Source: SIAM, Company, PINC Research




vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in                                                                                                              11
Sector: Auto
BSE Sensex: 20,203
                                                                                                                                           RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                           BUY
                                                                 BAJAJ AUTO                                                                CMP Rs1,522
                                                                                                                                           TP Rs1,854

                  Rise of the Pheonix                                                                                                     12 October 2010
                                                                                                     Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA
                  After a tumultuous FY08-09, Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) appears to                          vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in
                  have got its act together. Its new brand strategy with Pulsar                      +91-22-6618 6388
                  and Discover is falling in place and the company seems to
                                                                                                     Nikhil Deshpande
                  have found its Midas touch. Three-wheelers and exports are
                                                                                                     nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
                  adding to its volume and helping it to maintain over 20%
                                                                                                     +91-22-6618 6339
                  margins.

                  Product portfolio revamp: Over the last ten years, BJAUT has                       VOLUMES                                   (Unit ‘000s)
                  metamorphosed under the new leadership. It shed its scooter image                                           FY10        FY11E       FY12E
                  to emerge as a motorcycle manufacturer. The transition hasn't been                  Dom estic
                  smooth, with hiccups on the way, as the company was hard pressed                    2-Wheelers              1,786        2,459       2,803
                  to roll out products that would challenge the market leader. Now it                 3-Wheelers                 176         198         222
                  seems to have 'Discovered' the recipe to challenge the leader.                      Total Dom estic         1,962        2,657       3,025
                                                                                                      Exports
                  New strategy tasting success: The company’s market share after                      2-Wheelers                 726       1,051       1,199
                  touching a high of 37% in FY07 witnessed a steep fall and halved to
 Company Update




                                                                                                      3-Wheelers                 165         223         249
                  18% over the next two years. During the period, the company decided                 Total Exports              891       1,274       1,448
                  to exit the low-margin entry segment while the much hyped XCD                       Total Sales             2,853        3,931       4,473
                  platform proved to be a damp squib. In FY10, the company migrated                   YoY Gr. (%)             29.9          37.8        13.8
                  to a new dual brand strategy: the commuter focused Discover and
                  the sports-imaged Pulsar. With multiple products under each brand,
                                                                                                     STOCK DATA
                  market share has recovered to 30% in September 2010.
                                                                                                      Market Cap                          Rs440.4bn
                  3-wheelers demand across markets: Strong replacement demand                         Book Value per share                Rs101.2
                  and abolition of permit system in states such as TamilNadu is helping               Eq Shares O/S (F.V. Rs10)           289.4mn
                  the industry to post strong growth. Export demand is robust too,                    Free Float                          50.4%
                  leaving the company struggling to meet demand.                                      Avg Traded Val. (6 mnts)            Rs882.6mn
                                                                                                      52 w eek High/Low                   Rs1611/684
                  Exports a hedge: The company exports one in three motorcycles                       Bloomberg Code                      BJAUT IN
                  and every other 3-wheeler it manufactures. In H1FY11, exports have                  Reuters Code                        BAJA.BO
                  grown at 56.7% to 0.6mn units and the company should comfortably
                  eclipse its target of 1mn for FY11. With the company looking at
                  expanding into newer markets, including Europe, in partnership with                PERFORMANCE (%)
                  KTM, exports should act as a cushion to any disturbance in domestic                                            1M          3M         12M
                  markets.                                                                            Absolute                    4.3       26.3        86.2
                                                                                                      Relative                (3.2)         14.0        67.5
                  Outlook: We expect the company to achieve volumes of 3.9mn
                  units in FY11 and 4.5mn units in FY12. The product mix has
                                                                                                     RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
                  substantially moved in favour of high-margin products such as Pulsar
                  and Discover. 3-wheelers too are expected to maintain robust                                          BJAUT                  BSE
                  performance. This would help the company maintain over 20%                          2,000
                  margins in FY11 and FY12. We expect the company to record
                                                                                                      1,600
                  earnings of Rs89 and Rs103 in FY11 and FY12 respectively.
                                                                                                      1,200
                  VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
                  The stock trades at 17.1x and 14.8x FY11E and FY12E earnings                          800

                  respectively. We maintain our 'BUY' rating with a target price of                     400
                  Rs1,854 discounting FY12E earnings 18x.                                                 Oct-09     Jan-10      Apr-10    Jul-10     Oct-10


                               PINC Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Bloomberg PINV <GO>
                       RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                             Bajaj Auto
                                                                                                                                          Year Ended March (Figures in Rs mn)

 Income Statem ent               FY08        FY09          FY10     FY11E       FY12E        Cash Flow Statement                  FY08           FY09         FY10        FY11E       FY12E
 Net sales                      86,633      84,369 115,085 161,510 188,161                   Pre-tax profit                      11,685        10,258        24,644       35,693      40,817
 Growth (%)                       (6.8)           (2.6)     36.4      40.3        16.5       Depreciation                        (2,186)          818          918         1,502       1,826
 Operating profit                9,170       8,295        21,835    29,495      33,977       Total tax paid                      (3,928)        (3,889)      (7,506)      (9,775) (10,809)
 Other operating income          3,588       3,456         3,917     5,190       5,519       Chg in w orking capital             (2,445)          (555)       8,111       (7,150)       (205)
 EBITDA                         12,758      11,751        25,752    34,685      39,496       Other operating activ ities                (2)        (20)             (9)      -              -
 Growth (%)                      (12.5)           (7.9)    119.2      34.7        13.9       Cash flow from oper. (a)             3,125          6,612       26,158       20,270      31,629
 Depreciation                   (1,740)     (1,298)       (1,365)   (1,502)     (1,826)      Capital ex penditure                 1,983         (3,428)        (485)      (1,835)     (1,950)
 Other income                    1,404       1,389         1,399     2,580       3,217       Chg in inv estments                 58,150         (1,622) (17,237)          (3,200)     (2,500)
 EBIT                           12,423      11,842        25,786    35,763      40,887       Other inv esting activ ities    (44,075)              -            -            -              -
 Interest paid                     (52)       (210)          (60)      (70)           (70)   Cash flow from inv. (b)             16,058         (5,050) (17,722)          (5,035)     (4,450)
 PBT (before E/o items)         12,371      11,632        25,726    35,693      40,817       Free cash flow (a+b)                19,183          1,562        8,436       15,235      27,179
 Tax prov ision                 (4,126)     (3,693)       (7,608)   (9,994) (11,020)         Equity raised/(repaid)                435             -            -            -              -
 E/o Income / (loss)              (686)     (1,374)       (1,082)      -              -      Debt raised/(repaid)                (2,911)         2,357       (2,314)      (1,326)     (1,193)
 Net profit                      7,560       6,565        17,036    25,699      29,797       Chg in Minorities int.                 -              -            -            -              -
 Adjusted net profit             8,245       7,939        18,118    25,699      29,797       Div idend (incl. tax )              (4,735)        (3,386)      (3,724)      (6,749)     (7,618)
 Growth (%)                      (35.3)           (3.7)    128.2      41.8        15.9       Other financing activ ities            -           (1,833)       2,141          -              -
 Diluted EPS (Rs)                 28.5        27.4          62.6      88.8       103.0       Cash flow from fin. (c)             (7,211)        (2,862)      (3,897)      (8,074)     (8,811)
 Diluted EPS Growth (%)          (54.7)           (3.7)    128.2      41.8        15.9       Net chg in cash (a+b+c)             11,972         (1,300)       4,539        7,161      18,368



 Balance Sheet                   FY08        FY09          FY10     FY11E       FY12E        Key Ratios                           FY08           FY09         FY10        FY11E       FY12E
 Equity capital                  1,447       1,447         1,447     2,894       2,894       OPM (%)                               14.1           13.4         21.6         20.8        20.4
 Reserves & surplus             14,429      17,250        27,837    44,470      65,804       Net margin (%)                         9.5            9.4         15.7         15.9        15.8
 Shareholders' funds            15,876      16,864        29,283    47,364      68,698       Div idend y ield (%)                   0.7            0.7          1.3          1.5            1.6
 Preference Share Capital          -              -          -         -              -      Net debt/Equity (x )                   0.0            0.2         (0.1)        (0.2)       (0.4)
 Total Debt                     13,343      15,700        13,386    12,060      10,867       Net Working Capital (day s)            (15)               (8)      (39)         (14)           (14)
 Capital Employed               29,219      32,564        42,669    59,424      79,565       Asset turnov er (x )                   1.3            1.7          1.8          2.0            1.8
 Net fix ed assets              13,034      15,644        15,211    15,544      15,668       ROCE (%)                              23.9           36.5         65.4         67.4        57.0
 Cash & Cash Eq.                12,807      11,507        16,046    23,207      41,575       RoE (%)                               23.2           48.5         78.5         67.1        51.3
 Net other Current Assets       (2,836)     (2,492) (13,754)        (7,501)     (8,141)      EV/Net sales (x )                      5.1            5.3          3.8          2.7            2.2
 Inv estments                    6,325       7,947        25,184    28,384      30,884       EV/EBITDA (x )                        34.6           37.8         17.0         12.4        10.4
 Net Deferred Tax Assets          (110)           (42)       (17)     (209)       (420)      PER (x )                              53.4           55.5         24.3         17.1        14.8
 Total assets                   29,219      32,564        42,669    59,424      79,565       Price/Book (x )                       27.7           26.1         15.0          9.3            6.4



 P/E Band                                                                                    EV/EBIDTA

 2,000                                                                                       480,000
                                                                                                                                                                                       12X
                                                                                 18X
 1,500                                                                                       360,000                                                                                   10X
                                                                                 15X

                                                                                 12X                                                                                                    8X
 1,000                                                                                       240,000
                                                                                      9X                                                                                                6X

                                                                                      6X                                                                                                4X
   500                                                                                       120,000


     0                                                                                               0
     May -08           Dec-08            Jul-09            Mar-10            Oct-10                  May -08            Dec-08                Jul-09           Mar-10              Oct-10



vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in                      nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
Sector: Auto
BSE Sensex: 20,203
                                                                                                                                            RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                            BUY
                                                        HERO HONDA MOTORS                                                                   CMP Rs1,874
                                                                                                                                            TP Rs2,305

                  Will The Party End?                                                                                                      12 October 2010
                                                                                                      Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA
                  Hero Honda (HH) has been the most stable player in the 2-                           vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in
                  wheeler sector over the past two years with a stable product                        +91-22-6618 6388
                  profile. The company has been in the limelight recently
                                                                                                      Nikhil Deshpande
                  regarding a possible end to the JV with Honda. With no in-
                                                                                                      nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
                  house R&D, question marks are being raised over the                                 +91-22-6618 6339
                  company’s ability to maintain its leadership in case of a break-
                  up between the partners. However, we expect HH to overcome
                  these overhangs and maintain its numero uno position.
                  End of the road for the JV? The JV agreement with Honda, Japan
                                                                                                      VOLUMES                                    (Unit ‘000s)
                  is due to end in 2014. The media is abuzz with news and speculation
                                                                                                                                  FY10      FY11E      FY12E
                  on the possible end of the JV and different combinations following
                                                                                                        Motorcycles               4,386      4,956     5,452
                  such an event. We believe given the aspirations of Honda and its
                                                                                                        YoY Gr. (%)                22.4       13.0      10.0
                  experience in India through its wholly owned subsidiary will lead it                  Scooters                    214        257       288
                  to have an independent presence in India and hence this JV is unlikely                YoY Gr. (%)                54.9       20.0      12.0
 Company Update




                  to be renewed beyond 2014 when the current agreement ends.                            Total Sales               4,600      5,213     5,740
                                                                                                        YoY Gr. (%)                23.6       13.3      10.1
                  Concerns on technology: HH has no in-house R&D, which is a
                  major concern being raised. However, we do not expect this to be a
                  major hurdle as two-wheeler business is not technology intensive.                   STOCK DATA
                  Further we expect that Indian promoters will demand technology
                                                                                                      Market Cap                             Rs374.2bn
                  continuity for some years and this will give HH time to develop its in-             Book Value per share                   Rs173.5
                  house R&D capabilities.                                                             Eq Shares O/S (F.V. Rs2)               200mn
                  Opening of export frontiers: HH is currently restrained from                        Free Float                             47.8%
                                                                                                      Avg Traded Value (6 mnths)             Rs0.93bn
                  exporting due to the JV agreement and has access to only three
                                                                                                      52 w eek High/Low                      Rs2094/1452
                  overseas markets. Following the break-up we expect HH to emerge
                                                                                                      Bloomberg Code                         HH IN
                  as a strong player in the exports. Success of other Indian two-wheeler
                                                                                                      Reuters Code                           HROH.BO
                  manufacturers in the overseas market support this.
                  Robust performance even during the downturn: In the 2-wheeler
                                                                                                      PERFORMANCE (%)
                  pack, HH was the least affected during the downturn of FY08-09.
                                                                                                                                   1M         3M       12M
                  Lesser dependence on finance and a stable product range shielded
                                                                                                      Absolute                     8.2      (5.3)      14.9
                  HH from the meltdown in the 2-wheeler market. Following flat sales
                                                                                                      Relative                     0.7     (17.6)      (3.7)
                  in FY08, HH's volumes were up 11.5% in FY09 even as the industry
                  grew only 5%.
                  Outlook: We expect HH to achieve volumes of 5.2mn and 5.7mn                         RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
                  units in FY11 and FY12 respectively. We expect the company to
                                                                                                                          HH                   BSE
                  maintain margins of ~15.5% over FY11-12. We maintain our earning                     2,200
                  estimates for FY11 and FY12 at Rs113.8 and Rs128.1 respectively.
                                                                                                       1,950
                  VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
                                                                                                       1,700
                  The stock currently trades at 16.5xFY11E and 14.6xFY12E earnings.
                  We maintain 'BUY' on the stock with a target price of Rs2,305,                       1,450
                  discounting FY12E earnings 18x.                                                      1,200
                                                                                                           Oct-09     Jan-10      Apr-10     Jul-10    Oct-10


                                PINC Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Bloomberg PINV <GO>
                       RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                       Hero Honda Motors
                                                                                                                                     Year Ended March (Figures in Rs mn)

 Incom e Statement              FY08       FY09       FY10           FY11E      FY12E     Cash Flow Statem ent                FY08           FY09       FY10      FY11E         FY12E
 Net sales                  103,318      123,191    157,582      176,083       197,714    Pre-tax profit                     14,091         17,815     28,317     28,012        31,576
 Growth (%)                       4.4       19.2       27.9            11.7       12.3    Depreciation                        1,474          1,600      1,496      2,203         2,481
 Operating profit            13,537       17,037     26,682          26,479     29,916    Total tax paid                     (4,420)        (4,866)    (5,622)     (5,434)      (5,847)
 Other operating income          313        629        979            1,006      1,068    Chg in w orking capital             3,675          2,225      4,975      (7,204)        161
 EBITDA                      13,850       17,666     27,660          27,485     30,983    Other operating activ ities           -              -          -           -              -
 Growth (%)                      13.1       27.6       56.6            (0.6)      12.7    Cash flow from oper. (a)           14,820         16,774     29,166     17,578        28,371
 Depreciation                (1,615)      (1,807)    (1,915)         (2,203)    (2,481)   Capital ex penditure               (3,567)        (2,895)    (1,623)     (4,849) (11,300)
 Other income                   1,876      1,980      2,593           2,751      3,094    Chg in inv estments                   (59)          (263)       -           -              -
 EBIT                        14,111       17,840     28,338          28,032     31,596    Other inv esting activ ities          -              -          -           -              -
 Interest paid                    (20)       (25)       (21)            (20)       (20)   Cash flow from inv. (b)            (3,627)        (3,158)    (1,623)     (4,849) (11,300)
 PBT (before E/o items)      14,091       17,815     28,317          28,012     31,576    Free cash flow (a+b)               11,193         13,616     27,543     12,729        17,071
 Tax prov ision              (4,424)      (4,997)    (5,999)         (5,322)    (5,999)   Equity raised/(repaid)                -              -          -           -              -
 E/o Income / (loss)              -          -          -               -          -      Debt raised/(repaid)                 (332)          (535)      (125)       (333)        (150)
 Net profit                     9,667     12,818     22,318          22,690     25,576    Chg in Minorities int.                -              -          -           -              -
 Adjusted net profit            9,667     12,818     22,318          22,690     25,576    Div idend (incl. tax )             (3,972)        (4,439)    (4,973) (25,376)         (8,177)
 Growth (%)                      12.7       32.6       74.1             1.7       12.7    Other financing activ ities           (67)           -          -           -              -
 Diluted EPS (Rs)                48.4       64.2      111.8           113.6      128.1    Cash flow from fin. (c)            (4,370)        (4,974)    (5,097) (25,709)         (8,327)
 Diluted EPS Growth (%)          12.7       32.6       74.1             1.7       12.7    Net chg in cash (a+b+c)             6,823          8,642     22,446     (12,980)       8,744



 Balance Sheet                  FY08       FY09       FY10           FY11E      FY12E     Key Ratios                          FY08           FY09       FY10      FY11E         FY12E
 Equity capital                  399        399        399             399         399    EBITDA margin (%)                    13.4           14.3       17.4        15.5         15.6
 Reserves & surplus          29,463       37,608     34,251          48,763     66,162    Net margin (%)                        9.4           10.4       14.2        12.9         12.9
 Shareholders' funds         29,862       38,008     34,650          49,163     66,562    Div idend y ield (%)                  1.0            1.1        5.9         1.9            1.9
 Preference Share Capital         -          -          -               -          -      Net debt/Equity (x )                 (0.9)           (0.9)     (1.7)       (0.9)        (0.8)
 Total Debt                     1,320       785        660             327         177    Net Working Capital (day s)               (9)        (10)       (18)            (2)            (2)
 Capital Employed            31,182       38,792     35,311          49,490     66,739    Asset turnov er (x )                  2.2            2.2        2.2         2.1            2.2
 Net fix ed assets           15,648       16,943     17,069          19,715     28,534    ROCE (%)                             46.9           49.0       73.4        63.6         52.7
 Cash & Cash Eq.             26,885       35,527     57,973          44,993     53,736    RoE (%)                              35.4           37.8       61.4        54.1         44.2
 Net other Current Assets   (10,191)     (12,589)   (38,560)     (13,896)      (14,057)   EV/Net sales (x )                     3.4            2.8        2.0         1.9            1.6
 Inv estments                     94        357        357             357         357    EV/EBITDA (x )                       25.2           19.2       11.5        12.0         10.3
 Net Deferred Tax Assets     (1,254)      (1,444)    (1,528)         (1,679)    (1,831)   PER (x )                             38.7           29.2       16.8        16.5         14.6
 Total assets                31,182       38,792     35,311          49,490     66,739    Price/Book (x )                      12.5            9.8       10.8         7.6            5.6



 P/E Band                                                                                 EV/EBIDTA

 2,800                                                                                    480,000

                                                                                                                                                                                14X
 2,100                                                                             18X    360,000                                                                               12X
                                                                                   15X
                                                                                                                                                                                 10X
 1,400                                                                             12X    240,000                                                                                 8X
                                                                                    9X
                                                                                                                                                                                  6X
   700                                                                              6X    120,000


     0                                                                                           0
         Oct-06        Oct-07            Oct-08             Oct-09             Oct-10             Oct-06            Oct-07                Oct-08         Oct-09             Oct-10



vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in             nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
Sector: Auto
BSE Sensex: 20,203
                                                                                                                                         RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                            HOLD
                                                                 TVS MOTOR                                                                  CMP Rs75
                                                                                                                                            TP Rs85

                                                                                                                                        12 October 2010
                  Riding On The Wego
                                                                                                     Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA
                  TVS Motors (TVSL) in FY08-09 was a pale shadow of its heydays                      vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in
                  of FY03-04. With the product portfolio in disarray, it was hit                     +91-22-6618 6388
                  hard by the downturn. FY10 was a year of consolidation and
                  the company expects to build on it in FY11. New launches in                        Nikhil Deshpande
                  the two-wheeler segment and ramp up in 3-wheelers are                              nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
                  expected to give it the much needed profitability boost.                           +91-22-6618 6339
                  Overcoming the Victor shadow: Within a year of its break-up
                  with Suzuki, Japan, TVSL launched the Victor. Positioned in the
                                                                                                     VOLUMES                                  (Unit ‘000s)
                  executive segment, Victor to date has been TVSL's most successful
                  model and the nearest challenger to HH's Splendor. Post Victor,                                              FY10     FY11E      FY12E
                  TVSL failed to repeat the performance with other products in the                    Motorcycles                492       640        704
                  segment. Apache and Star City in the premium and economy                            Scooters                   300       435        500
                  segments respectively have helped the company to hold on to 8%                      Mopeds                     565       635        667
                  market share. Although, the company is nearing its peak monthly                     2-Wheelers               1,357     1,710      1,871
                  performance of 65K motorcycles it has been unable to take its market                3-Wheelers                  13        29         34
                  share back in double digits.                                                        Total Dom estic          1,370     1,740      1,905
 Company Update




                  Wego leading the way: The company has been a consistent                             Exports                    167       237        275
                  performer in the scooter segment with a market share at 20% levels.                 Total Sales              1,537     1,976      2,180
                  However, success of the Activa and similar products (large scooters)                YoY Gr. (%)              15.2       28.6       10.3
                  from HH and Suzuki resulted in a market share declining to early
                  20% levels. TVSL has tried to plug this gap in its scooter portfolio
                                                                                                     STOCK DATA
                  by launching Wego in Jan'10. In H1FY11, scooters grew 41.5%,
                  managing to keep up with the industry growth rate.                                  Market Cap                        Rs35.5bn
                                                                                                      Book Value per share              Rs17.6
                  Mopeds moving out of South: Mopeds have traditionally been in
                                                                                                      Eq Shares O/S (F.V. Rs1)          475mn
                  demand only in the souther region. However in the recent past, moped
                                                                                                      Free Float                        39.6%
                  demand has started emerging from other markets too. In H1FY11,
                                                                                                      Avg Traded Val. (6 mnts)          Rs326.4mn
                  TVSL's moped volumes have grown at 23.7% to 341k units.
                                                                                                      52 w eek High/Low                 Rs80/26
                  3-wheeler business taking roots: TVSL has been a late entrant                       Bloomberg Code                    TVSL IN
                  into the 3-wheeler segment. The company started dispatches only                     Reuters Code                      TVSM.BO
                  in Apr'08. Having made a countrywide launch, the company is
                  consistently clocking volume of 2k in the domestic market and 1k in
                  the export market. We expect TVSL to achieve annual volumes of                     PERFORMANCE (%)
                  50k by FY12.
                                                                                                                                 1M        3M        12M
                  Indonesian operations: The Indonesian subsidiary has run rate of                    Absolute                 (2.7)      27.0      164.5
                  2,000 units per month. TVSL expects this to increase to 5,000 units                 Relative              (10.2)        14.7      145.8
                  during the current year with support from local financiers. At these
                  levels, this subsidiary is expected to achieve cash break-even.
                                                                                                     RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
                  Outlook: We expect the company to achieve volumes of 2mn units
                  in FY11 and 2.18mn units in FY12. The company is expanding
                                                                                                                        TVSL                BSE
                  capacity to 2.7mn units to cater to this demand. Margins are expected               80
                  to be maintained near the 7% mark, significantly lower compared
                  with peers. We expect the company to post earnings of Rs4.5 and                     60
                  Rs5.3 in FY11 and FY12 respectively.
                                                                                                      40
                  VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
                  The stock trades at 16.6x FY11E and 14.1x FY12E standalone                          20
                  earnings. We maintain a 'HOLD' rating on the stock with a price
                                                                                                       0
                  target of Rs85, discounting FY12E earnings at 16x.
                                                                                                       Oct-09      Jan-10      Apr-10    Jul-10    Oct-10


                               PINC Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Bloomberg PINV <GO>
                        RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                       TVS Motor
                                                                                                                                        Year Ended March (Figures in Rs mn)

 Incom e Statement               FY08        FY09         FY10       FY11E       FY12E      Cash Flow Statement                FY08            FY09        FY10      FY11E          FY12E
 Net sales                      32,195      36,709       43,631      61,670      69,633     Pre-tax profit                       354             311        899      2,681           3,145
 Growth (%)                      (16.5)       14.0         18.9        41.3        12.9     Depreciation                         886             949        840      1,151           1,224
 Operating profit                 440        1,211        2,094       3,683       4,130     Total tax paid                      (168)                30     (220)     (569)           (668)
 Other operating income           507          665         670         704          739     Chg in w orking capital            (1,014)          (412)       982        248             141
 EBITDA                           947        1,875        2,764       4,387       4,869     Other operating activ ities           -              -           -          -              -
 Growth (%)                      (48.8)       97.9         47.4        58.7        11.0     Cash flow from oper. (a)              57             878       2,502     3,510           3,842
 Depreciation                     (965)     (1,033)      (1,044)     (1,151)     (1,224)    Capital ex penditure               (1,287)          (883)       (304)    (1,230)          (850)
 Other income                     486          115         145         185          210     Chg in inv estments                 (258)         (1,273)       (460)       -              -
 EBIT                             468          957        1,865       3,421       3,855     Other inv esting activ ities          -              -           -          -              -
 Interest paid                    (115)       (646)        (754)       (740)       (710)    Cash flow from inv. (b)            (1,545)        (2,156)       (764)    (1,230)          (850)
 PBT (before E/o items)           354          311        1,111       2,681       3,145     Free cash flow (a+b)               (1,488)        (1,278)      1,737     2,281           2,992
 Tax prov ision                    (36)            (0)      (19)       (536)       (629)    Equity raised/(repaid)                -              -           -          -              -
 E/o Income / (loss)               -           -           (212)        -           -       Debt raised/(repaid)                 328           2,396        973       (633)         (1,300)
 Net profit                       318          311         880        2,145       2,516     Chg in Minorities int.                -              -           -          -              -
 Adjusted net profit              318          311        1,092       2,145       2,516     Div idend (incl. tax )                (42)          (195)       (389)     (301)           (333)
 Growth (%)                      (52.1)        (2.2)      251.3        96.5        17.3     Other financing activ ities           58            (426)       424        190             110
 Diluted EPS (Rs)                  0.7         0.7          2.3         4.5         5.3     Cash flow from fin. (c)              344           1,776       1,007      (744)         (1,523)
 Diluted EPS Growth (%)          (52.1)        (2.2)      251.3        96.5        17.3     Net chg in cash (a+b+c)            (1,144)           498       2,745     1,537           1,468



 Balance Sheet                    FY08        FY09         FY10      FY11E        FY12E     Key Ratios                         FY08            FY09        FY10      FY11E          FY12E
 Equity capital                    238          238         238         475          475    EBITDA margin (%)                     2.9            5.0         6.2        7.0            6.9
 Reserves & surplus              7,978        7,864       8,416       9,990       12,172    Net margin (%)                        1.0            0.8         2.5        3.5            3.6
 Shareholders' funds             7,688        7,378       8,353      10,355       12,647    Div idend y ield (%)                  0.5            0.5         0.8        0.8            0.8
 Preference Share Capital              -           -         -              -           -   Net debt/Equity (x )                  0.8            1.1         0.7        0.4            0.1
 Total Debt                      6,663        9,060      10,033       9,400        8,100    Net Working Capital (day s)               (2)            (7)     (16)           (9)            (9)
 Capital Employed               14,352       16,438      18,386      19,755       20,747    Asset turnov er (x )                  1.5            1.6         1.7        2.1            2.1
 Net fix ed assets              10,431       10,364       9,828       9,906        9,533    ROCE (%)                              2.9            5.4         9.6      16.5            17.6
 Cash & Cash Eq.                   759        1,257       4,002       5,539        7,007    RoE (%)                               4.2            4.1        13.9      22.9            21.9
 Net other Current Assets        2,043        2,358       1,301       1,014          873    EV/Net sales (x )                     1.3            1.2         1.0        0.6            0.5
 Inv estments                    2,668        3,941       4,401       4,401        4,401    EV/EBITDA (x )                      43.7            23.1        15.0        9.0            7.5
 Net Deferred Tax Assets         (1,549)     (1,481)      (1,146)     (1,106)     (1,067)   PER (x )                           111.8           114.3        32.5      16.6            14.1
 Total assets                   14,352       16,438      18,386      19,755       20,747    Price/Book (x )                       4.6            4.8         4.3        3.4            2.8



 P/E Band                                                                                   EV/EBIDTA

 160                                                                                        80,000
                                                                                    30X
                                                                                                                                                                                      15X
 120                                                                                24X     60,000
                                                                                                                                                                                      12X

                                                                                    18X                                                                                                9X
  80                                                                                        40,000

                                                                                    12X                                                                                                6X
  40                                                                                        20,000
                                                                                     6X                                                                                                3X

   0                                                                                              0
       Oct-06          Oct-07              Oct-08           Oct-09              Oct-10             Oct-06             Oct-07                Oct-08          Oct-09                Oct-10



vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in                nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in
               RESEARCH


                                                     T E A M

EQUITY DESK
Sadanand Raje             Head - Institutional Sales           sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in        91-22-6618 6366
                          Technical Analyst

RESEARCH
Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA   Auto, Cement                         vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in   91-22-6618 6388
Nikhil Deshpande          Auto, Auto Ancillary, Cement         nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in     91-22-6618 6339
Vinod Nair                Construction, Power, Capital Goods   vinod.nair@pinc.co.in           91-22-6618 6379
Ankit Babel               Capital Goods                        ankit.b@pinc.co.in              91-22-6618 6551
Hitul Gutka               Power                                hitul.gutka@pinc.co.in          91-22-6618 6410
Subramaniam Yadav         Construction                         subramaniam.yadav@pinc.co.in    91-22-6618 6371
Madhura Joshi             Power                                madhura.joshi@pinc.co.in        91-22-6618 6395
Satish Mishra             Fertiliser, Engineering              satish.mishra@pinc.co.in        91-22-6618 6488
Rohit Kumar Anand         IT Services                          rohit.anand@pinc.co.in          91-22-6618 6372
Namrata Sharma            Media                                namrata.sharma@pinc.co.in       91-22-6618 6412
Karan Taurani             IT Services                          karan.taurani@pinc.co.in        91-22-6618 6382
Bikash Bhalotia           Metals, Mining                       bikash.bhalotia@pinc.co.in      91-22-6618 6387
Harleen Babber            Metals, Mining                       harleen.babber@pinc.co.in       91-22-6618 6389
Dipti Vijaywargi          Metals, Mining                       dipti.vijaywargi @pinc.co.in    91-22-6618 6393
Chirag Dagli              Pharma, FMCG, Fertiliser             chirag.dagli@pinc.co.in         91-22-6618 6462
Naveen Trivedi            Pharma, FMCG                         naveent@pinc.co.in              91-22-6618 6384

SALES
Anil Chaurasia            Equities                             anil.chaurasia@pinc.co.in       91-22-6618 6483
Rajeev Gupta              Equities                             rajeev.gupta@pinc.co.in         91-22-6618 6486
Shailesh Kadam            Derivatives                          shaileshk@pinc.co.in            91-22-6618 6349
Ganesh Gokhale            Derivatives                          ganeshg@pinc.co.in              91-22-6618 6347

DEALING
Mehul Desai               Head - Sales Trading                 mehul.desai@pinc.co.in          91-22-6618 6303
Naresh Panjnani           Co-Head - Sales Trading              naresh.panjnani@pinc.co.in      91-22-6618 6333
Amar Margaje                                                   amar.margaje@pinc.co.in         91-22-6618 6327
Ashok Savla                                                    ashok.savla@pinc.co.in          91-22-6618 6321
Raju Bhavsar                                                   rajub@pinc.co.in                91-22-6618 6322
Manoj Parmar                                                   manojp@pinc.co.in               91-22-6618 6326
Hasmukh D. Prajapati                                           hasmukhp@pinc.co.in             91-22-6618 6325
Sajjid Lala                                                    sajjid.lala@pinc.co.in          91-22-6618 6337
Chandani Bhatia                                                chandani.bhatia@pinc.co.in      91-22-6618 6324


DIRECTORS
Gaurang Gandhi                                                 gaurangg@pinc.co.in             91-22-6618 6400
Hemang Gandhi                                                  hemangg@pinc.co.in              91-22-6618 6400
Ketan Gandhi                                                   ketang@pinc.co.in               91-22-6618 6400


COMPLIANCE
Rakesh Bhatia             Head Compliance                      rakeshb@pinc.co.in              91-22-6618 6400
                                                                  Infinity.com
                                                                  Financial Securities Ltd
                          bright thinking                         SMALL WORLD, INFINITE OPPORTUNITIES




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