Business valuation_dcf model_case Study - forecostudies by nyut545e2

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									                                        year                          2008                           2009
                                        semester                 1               2               1
EBIT                                                            -293,130          67,261        -80,867
(+) ammortization                                                 37,792          37,792         37,792
EBITDA                                                          -255,338         105,053        -43,075
(-) increase on working capital                                  -24,200        -169,000         -8,660
(=) cash flow from operations                                   -279,538         -63,947        -51,735
(-) investments
                                        A                       -300,000        -200,000
                                        B                        -40,000         -50,000        -10,000
                                        C                                                        -4,500
(=) operating cash flows                                        -619,538        -313,947        -66,235
(-) taxes

OCF-taxes                                                       -619,538        -313,947        -66,235


debt equity ratio                       D/E                      1.5
                                        debt                    60%
                                        equity                  40%
company rating                                                         BBB     spread             0.015

                    BETA ESTIMATON
                                                                                             companies
                                        Retail/Apparel/S
                                                hoe                0.98000                          23
                                        textile products           0.60000                          16
unlevered beta(Damodaram)               mean                       0.82410

taxes                                                              0.37250 Using diff.Beta

levered beta for the company                                       0.88450      1.60
risk free rate                                                     0.04579
equity risk premium                                                0.04500
operating return (Ro)                                              0.06629      0.08
debt return (Rd)                                                   0.06079
equity return(Re)                                                  0.08559      0.12
wacc                                                               0.05712      0.07

                      BETA ESTIMATION (COMPARABLES)
                                                                               Beta
                 Firm                    Capit.(Mld euro)   Beta levered
                                                                              Unlevere
Stefanel                                             81.3           0.7837        0.4037
Tod's                                                1.27           0.7836        0.4037
Geox                                                 3.05           0.8845        0.4556
Average                                             85.62           0.7873        0.4056


There is the possibility to underweighetd the operating
risk of this firm. Therefore we use the more feasible       Comparables        Beta(l)         Beta(u)
which is geox.                                              Geox                  0.8845         0.4556
2009                    2010                       2011                         2012
          2         1          2           1               2            1                2
        219,969    68,641     482,349    254,442           736,521    449,002          1,076,372
         37,792    37,792      37,792     37,792             37,792    37,792             37,792
        257,761   106,433     520,141    292,234           774,313    486,794          1,114,164
       -148,980    77,634    -187,788     99,907          -204,127    115,658           -252,999
        108,781   184,067     332,353    392,141           570,186    602,452            861,165



        -4,500     -4,500       -4,500    -4,500            -4,500     -4,500             -4,500
       104,281    179,567      327,853   387,641           565,686    597,952            856,665
                              -157,113                    -343,254                      -581,611

       104,281    179,567      170,740   387,641          222,432     597,952           275,054


                                                   levered                      unlevered
                            Enterprise
                            Value                   17,214,169.62               13,511,696.29




                            DEBT                    10,328,501.77


                            EQUITY                   6,885,667.85


                            PRICE                    2,065,700.35




       Beta(l)
        0.8845
total

    2,980,560
      377,920
    3,358,480
     -702,555
    2,655,925

      -500,000
      -100,000
       -36,000
     2,019,925
    -1,081,978




Tax Shield

 3,702,473.34
                                                           present
                                      time    flows     value of cash     time         flows
                                                          flows (ro)
                                      0.5    -619,538     -599,971         0.5        -619,538
                                       1     -313,947     -294,430          1         -313,947
                                      1.5     -66,235      -60,156         1.5         -66,235
                                       2      104,281       91,718          2         104,281
                                      2.5     179,567      152,947         2.5        179,567
                                       3      170,740      140,835          3         170,740
                                      3.5     387,641      309,648         3.5        387,641
                                       4      222,432      172,067          4         222,432
                                      4.5     597,952      447,950         4.5        597,952
                                       5      275,054      199,547          5         275,054
                                                             total
                                                           560,155




                                  Terminal value determination


                                  year                            2012
                                  semester                   1            2
EBIT                                                      449,002.00 1,076,372.00
(+) ammortization                                          37,792.00    37,792.00
EBITDA                                                    486,794.00 1,114,164.00
(-) increase on working capital                           115,658.00 -252,999.00
(=) cash flow from operations                             602,452.00 861,165.00
(-) investments
                                  A
                                  B
                                  C                        -4,500.00      -4,500.00
(=) operating cash flows                                  597,952.00     856,665.00
(-) taxes                                                               -581,611.00

OCF-taxes                                                 597,952.00    275,054.00




company growth rate                             0.015

inflation rate                                   0.02
   present
   value of
 cash flows
    (wacc)
     -602,567
     -296,983
      -60,940
       93,316
      156,284
      144,531
      319,149
      178,114
      465,700
      208,351
total
      604,956




                                                               Ro

                                                          TV (unlevered)

                                                          19,035,745.60

                                                          discounted TV(u)

                                                          12,951,540.82

                OCF (n)      OCF (n+1)    OCF after tax
                1,525,374.00 1,555,881.48   976,315.63
    Wacc

TV(levered)

23,179,079.35

discounted TV(l)

16,609,214.11
Name           ITALY ZERO CURVE 10Y - ZERO YIELD                Growth Rate
Code           IT10Y00                                      Year        Growth %
CURRENCY       L                                            1996           2.1
     1/23/2007      4.249                                   1997           1.9
     1/24/2007     4.2704                                   1998           1.4
     1/25/2007     4.3124                                   1999           1.9
     1/26/2007      4.328                                   2000           3.6
     1/29/2007     4.3619                                   2001           1.8
     1/30/2007     4.3529                                   2002           0.5
     1/31/2007     4.3456                                   2003           0.3
      2/1/2007     4.3378                                   2004           1.2
      2/2/2007     4.3065                                   2005           0.1
      2/5/2007     4.2881                                   2006           1.9
      2/6/2007     4.2734                                   2007           1.9
      2/7/2007     4.2671                                2008 (estim.)      1
      2/8/2007     4.2838                                  Averag.         1.5
      2/9/2007      4.326
     2/12/2007     4.3381
     2/13/2007     4.3593
     2/14/2007     4.3273
     2/15/2007     4.2818                                   EV(l)          DEBT
     2/16/2007     4.2876          D/E             1.5   17,214,169.62   10,328,501.77
     2/19/2007     4.2948          DEBT            0.6
     2/20/2007     4.2778          EQUITY          0.4
     2/21/2007     4.2764
     2/22/2007     4.3191
     2/23/2007     4.2784
     2/26/2007     4.2278
     2/27/2007     4.2032                                   EV(l)          DEBT
     2/28/2007     4.2029                                12,372,191.62    7,423,314.97
      3/1/2007     4.2051
      3/2/2007      4.188
      3/5/2007     4.1741
      3/6/2007     4.1685
      3/7/2007     4.1674
      3/8/2007     4.1821
      3/9/2007     4.2106
     3/12/2007     4.1838
     3/13/2007     4.1639
     3/14/2007     4.1475
     3/15/2007     4.1806
     3/16/2007     4.1745
     3/19/2007     4.1944
     3/20/2007     4.1781
     3/21/2007     4.1955
     3/22/2007     4.2249
     3/23/2007     4.2737
     3/26/2007      4.273
     3/27/2007     4.2854
     3/28/2007     4.2964
     3/29/2007     4.3154
     3/30/2007     4.3209
      4/2/2007     4.3331
      4/3/2007     4.3566
      4/4/2007     4.3395
 4/5/2007   4.3622
 4/6/2007   4.3622
 4/9/2007   4.3622
4/10/2007   4.3953
4/11/2007   4.4121
4/12/2007   4.4599
4/13/2007   4.5131
4/16/2007   4.4874
4/17/2007   4.4512
4/18/2007   4.4249
4/19/2007   4.4672
4/20/2007   4.4742
4/23/2007    4.444
4/24/2007   4.4303
4/25/2007    4.459
4/26/2007   4.4895
4/27/2007    4.484
4/30/2007   4.4221
 5/1/2007    4.416
 5/2/2007   4.4796
 5/3/2007   4.4959
 5/4/2007   4.4665
 5/7/2007   4.4801
 5/8/2007    4.465
 5/9/2007   4.4771
5/10/2007    4.482
5/11/2007   4.4866
5/14/2007    4.537
5/15/2007   4.5649
5/16/2007   4.5662
5/17/2007   4.5811
5/18/2007   4.5792
5/21/2007   4.5887
5/22/2007   4.6052
5/23/2007   4.6345
5/24/2007   4.6237
5/25/2007   4.6576
5/28/2007   4.6505
5/29/2007   4.6641
5/30/2007   4.6627
5/31/2007   4.6851
 6/1/2007   4.7342
 6/4/2007   4.7239
 6/5/2007    4.761
 6/6/2007   4.7254
 6/7/2007   4.8153
 6/8/2007   4.8533
6/11/2007   4.8477
6/12/2007   4.8981
6/13/2007   4.9349
6/14/2007   4.9407
6/15/2007   4.9532
6/18/2007   4.9631
6/19/2007   4.9096
6/20/2007   4.9208
6/21/2007   4.9398
6/22/2007   4.9484
6/25/2007   4.9184
6/26/2007   4.8991
6/27/2007   4.8577
6/28/2007   4.8747
6/29/2007   4.8879
 7/2/2007   4.8213
 7/3/2007   4.8689
 7/4/2007   4.9179
 7/5/2007   4.9597
 7/6/2007   4.9871
 7/9/2007   4.9838
7/10/2007   4.9139
7/11/2007   4.9113
7/12/2007   4.9483
7/13/2007   4.9533
7/16/2007   4.9151
7/17/2007   4.9434
7/18/2007   4.8919
7/19/2007   4.8834
7/20/2007   4.7956
7/23/2007   4.8135
7/24/2007   4.7917
7/25/2007   4.7782
7/26/2007   4.7193
7/27/2007   4.7475
7/30/2007   4.7365
7/31/2007   4.7507
 8/1/2007   4.7568
 8/2/2007   4.7649
 8/3/2007   4.7217
 8/6/2007   4.7323
 8/7/2007    4.731
 8/8/2007   4.7903
 8/9/2007   4.7728
8/10/2007   4.7451
8/13/2007   4.7745
8/14/2007   4.7626
8/15/2007   4.7523
8/16/2007   4.7046
8/17/2007   4.7297
8/20/2007    4.717
8/21/2007    4.684
8/22/2007   4.7122
8/23/2007   4.6778
8/24/2007   4.6585
8/27/2007   4.6422
8/28/2007   4.6036
8/29/2007   4.6286
8/30/2007   4.6358
8/31/2007   4.6442
 9/3/2007   4.6744
 9/4/2007   4.6925
 9/5/2007      4.64
 9/6/2007    4.634
 9/7/2007   4.5465
 9/10/2007   4.4926
 9/11/2007   4.5135
 9/12/2007   4.5454
 9/13/2007    4.561
 9/14/2007   4.5654
 9/17/2007   4.5456
 9/18/2007   4.6091
 9/19/2007   4.6565
 9/20/2007   4.7021
 9/21/2007   4.7194
 9/24/2007   4.7489
 9/25/2007   4.7119
 9/26/2007      4.76
 9/27/2007   4.7454
 9/28/2007    4.705
 10/1/2007   4.6876
 10/2/2007   4.6838
 10/3/2007   4.6992
 10/4/2007   4.6519
 10/5/2007   4.6964
 10/8/2007   4.7017
 10/9/2007   4.6708
10/10/2007   4.6935
10/11/2007   4.7265
10/12/2007    4.763
10/15/2007   4.7654
10/16/2007   4.7847
10/17/2007   4.7441
10/18/2007   4.6946
10/19/2007   4.6033
10/22/2007   4.5795
10/23/2007   4.5824
10/24/2007   4.5361
10/25/2007   4.5577
10/26/2007   4.5653
10/29/2007   4.5683
10/30/2007   4.5809
10/31/2007   4.6271
 11/1/2007   4.6097
 11/2/2007   4.5926
 11/5/2007   4.5866
 11/6/2007   4.5803
 11/7/2007   4.5739
 11/8/2007   4.5551
 11/9/2007   4.5294
11/12/2007   4.5406
11/13/2007   4.5532
11/14/2007    4.572
11/15/2007   4.5614
11/16/2007   4.5691
11/19/2007   4.5346
11/20/2007   4.5527
11/21/2007   4.5325
11/22/2007   4.5236
11/23/2007   4.5313
11/26/2007   4.5473
11/27/2007     4.5596
11/28/2007     4.6083
11/29/2007     4.5756
11/30/2007     4.6189
 12/3/2007     4.5636
 12/4/2007     4.5346
 12/5/2007     4.5316
 12/6/2007     4.5494
 12/7/2007     4.6365
12/10/2007     4.6681
12/11/2007     4.6808
12/12/2007     4.7308
12/13/2007     4.7131
12/14/2007      4.749
12/17/2007        4.73
12/18/2007     4.7014
12/19/2007     4.7006
12/20/2007      4.681
12/21/2007     4.7447
12/24/2007     4.7396
12/25/2007     4.7396
12/26/2007     4.7396
12/27/2007     4.7898
12/28/2007     4.7436
12/31/2007     4.7438
  1/1/2008     4.7438
  1/2/2008     4.6143
  1/3/2008     4.5906
  1/4/2008     4.5476
  1/7/2008     4.5465
  1/8/2008     4.5831
  1/9/2008     4.5348
 1/10/2008      4.557
 1/11/2008     4.5458
 1/14/2008     4.4985
 1/15/2008     4.4665
 1/16/2008     4.4261
 1/17/2008     4.4257
 1/18/2008     4.4122
 1/21/2008     4.3774
 1/22/2008     4.4426
 1/23/2008     4.3676
             4.578531
                                    2.2
                                      3
                                    2.4
                                    2.8
                                    2.2
                                    1.9
                                    2.2
                                    1.7
                                    2.6
                             2.33333333




 EQUITY           EV(l)      Asked Price
6,885,667.85   17,214,169.62 2,065,700.35




 EQUITY           EV(l)      Asked Price
4,948,876.65   12,372,191.62 1,484,662.99

								
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