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The Operational Impact of and Future Requirements for Satellite


  • pg 1
									  The Operational Impact of and Future
Requirements for Satellite Ocean Surface
Vector Winds in Tropical Cyclone Analysis

  Michael Brennan1, Richard Knabb1, Paul Chang2,
Joseph Sienkiewicz3, Zorana Jelenak2, Kevin Schrab4

         61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
                         6 March 2007                  1
        Impact of OSVW Data on TC Analysis
                  and Forecasting
• QuikSCAT data available in
  operational workstations at NHC
  since 2000
• Some information on TC
  intensity, especially for tropical
  storms, but not major hurricanes
    – Limited by instrument resolution
    – Interpretation complicated by
      rain contamination
• Improved detection/tracking of
  TC centers for analysis and
  model initialization
• Often only source of outer wind
  radii information for open ocean
  systems  affects
  watch/warning areas
                                Use of QuikSCAT at NHC                             2003-2006 NHC QuikSCAT Use

                            Percentage of NHC Tropical Cyclone Discussions Mentioning QuikSCAT
                                                                                                   Based on 2003–2006 Tropical
              25.0                                                          Wind Radii                Cyclone Discussions
                                                                               17%          22.0

              20.0                                                                          18.8
                                             16.7                               16.2
                                 15.5                                15.1

                                                               Center                                    Atlantic
                                                                     11.0                                E Pacific
              10.0                            9.0               21%                                                  Intensity

                     2000        2001       2002        2003        2004        2005        2006

Does not account for instances where QSCAT used                                                                           3
       but not explicitly mentioned in TCD
     NOAA OSVW Requirements
        5–7 June 2006 – NHC, Miami, FL

1. Summarize utility and impact of currently
   available satellite OSVW data in operational
   weather forecasting
2. Define NOAA’s operational OSVW requirements
3. Explore sensor/mission concepts using proven
   remote sensing technologies to meet these

         Who Else is Using OSVW?
                  Workshop Participants
   – TC analysis and forecasting
• NWS Ocean Prediction Center, NHC’s Tropical Analysis
  and Forecast Branch (TAFB), NWS coastal WFOs, DoD
   – Marine forecasts, warnings, and analyses
   – Identification of hurricane force extratropical cyclones at OPC
• NOAA/NESDIS – Develop retrieval algorithms, data
  processing, real time data distribution
• NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, FNMOC, ECMWF
   – Data assimilation for NWP modeling
• Academic and research communities
• Private sector marine forecasters, recreational mariners             5
        Operational Requirements
• All-weather retrievals
   – Accurate retrievals in rain

• Accuracy levied upon 10-m 1-
  min sustained wind
   – Speed: +/- 2 kt in 0–165 kt wind
                                         Helene 23 September 2006
   – Direction:
       • +/- 10° (2 σ) (10–165 kt)
       • +/- 20° (2 σ) (4–10 kt)

• Revisit time: 6 h (1–3 h goal)
   – Interval between measurements at
     particular point on ocean surface

        Operational Requirements
• Reduce time from measurement to
  product availability (product
  latency) to 45–60 min
    – 15 min goal
• 2.5 km x 2.5 km spacing between
  unique wind vector retrievals (1 km
• Retrievals within 2.5 km of coast (1
  km goal)
• Data delivered into operational
  workstations (N-AWIPS/AWIPS)
  and data assimilation systems
• Product

        Instrument Resolution Affects Ability to Measure Maximum Wind
                   (Max retrievable wind speed does not account for rain effects)
      User Requested                Definitely Achievable             Available Today!
   1km resolution                    2km resolution                     13km resolution
   Max wspd 137.8 kts                Max wspd 134.3 kts                 Max wspd 120.7 kts
   True Wind Field                   rms 2.14 kts                       Rms 5.71 kts

    25km resolution                   35km resolution                    70km resolution
    Max wspd 105.9 kts                Max wspd 106.1 kts                 Max wspd 91.0 kts
    rms 7.72 kts                      rms 8.88 kts                       rms 12.50 kts

                                                              Likely range
                                                              of NPOESS

Available Today!
           Current and Future OSVW Missions
97    98        99    00    01   02   03    04    05    06    07    08     09      10      11   12     13   14    15

                                            895 km                                                          1700 km

                      500 km

                                                                   India - OceanSat-2
                                                                                        China - HY-2

                     AMI/ERS-2                                           ASCAT/METOP – 3-satellite series
                                                                           2 x 550 km w/ 768-km nadir gap
                                                                                ~60% of QuikSCAT coverage
                                 1600 km

                                            • Planned foreign missions                       No CMIS on NPOESS C-1
     In orbit              Approved         • Unknown instrument designs                 A less capable CMIS-successor is
                                            • Research missions                         planned beginning with C-2 in 2016.
                                            • Questionable data availability (no                                       9
                                            agreements in place to share data)
      Next Generation Ocean Vector
         Wind Mission (XOVWM)
• Recommended to NOAA by National Academies’ Decadal
• XOVWM combines available technology and measurement
  heritage  represents order of magnitude advance in
  scientific and operational capability with moderate risk and
   – Ku-band scatterometer (high resolution)
   – C-band scatterometer (less sensitivity to rain)
   – Multi-frequency polarimetric radiometer (provide rain corrections)

• Meeting revisit time requirements (6 h) would require at
  least 2, and probably 3 satellites
       Key Recommendations
• Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The
  Way Ahead, February 2007
   – ―Due to the importance of OSVW data—for use by tropical cyclone
     forecasters and in tropical cyclone NWP systems—the JAG/TCR
     strongly endorses the development and acquisition of a capability to
     meet the OSVW observation requirements. This capability is
     absolutely critical to meeting the operational needs of the tropical
     cyclone forecast and warning centers…‖
• Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI),
  San José, Costa Rica, 21-30 November 2006
   – ―IWTC-VI recommends that the WMO Space Program strongly
     endorse the specific recommendations of the US National Oceanic and
     Atmospheric Administration Operational Satellite Ocean Surface
     Wind Vector Winds Requirements Workshop Report….‖
• Majority Report, NOAA Science Advisory Board Hurricane Intensity
  Research Working Group, 8 October 2006
   – ―Combining a broad range of atmospheric and oceanic observing
     techniques provides the best overall observing capacity. The current
     mix of satellites, manned aircraft, buoys, radar, etc, should be
     maintained as a critical component of the overall hurricane
     forecasting process.‖                                                  11
• Currently available operational OSVW data have led to
  significant improvements in TC analysis and forecasting
   – Advances in marine analyses, forecasts, and warnings from high
     seas to coastal waters
• NOAA has no plans to launch an operational OSVW mission
  to maintain current data quality after QuikSCAT
   – Cannot afford take step backward and lose improvements made!
• High-quality OSVW data critical to addressing hurricane
  intensity problem
   – Analysis tool for inner core structure for model input and validation of
     model output

• OSVW data from NPOESS MIS likely of limited
  utility for TC analysis
  – Based on experience with WindSat at NHC
  – Resolution not sufficient for TC analysis needs, maybe
    no wind direction?
• Future international research missions
  – Availability and quality of data unknown
• Place XOVWM on accelerated timetable
  – Minimize post-QuikSCAT gap in high-quality OSVW data
  – Some of cost could be defrayed by limiting the ocean
    vector winds capabilities of MIS
        Goals for Continued use of OSVW
               Data in Operations
• Short term
  – Push QuikSCAT capabilities to limits
  – Attempt to improve WindSat retrievals
  – Expedite data processing, distribution,
    and training for ASCAT

• Mid Term
  – Maintain operational availability of       ASCAT Coverage (courtesy
    QuikSCAT data through instrument life        COMET/EUMETSAT)
    span beyond FY09
  – FY09 – Study and design of XOVWM
    mission (sensor, satellite bus and
    ground system)

• Long Term
  – FY10–12 – procurement, integration,
    and testing of XOVWM
  – FY13 – XOVWM mission launch and
                                              QuikSCAT launch (courtesy   14
    Activity since NOAA Workshop
• July 2006
   – Attended NASA Ocean Vector Winds Science Team meeting
• August 2006
   – Workshop report finalized and distributed
• September 2006
   – Briefed the Technical Director for the Oceanographer of the Navy
• October 2006
   – Briefed NWS Director Johnson
   – Attended NPOESS Polar Max meeting
• November 2006
   – Briefed NOAA CFO and Program Analysis and Evaluation Director
• December 2006
   – Presentations given at AGU Fall Meeting and NOAA Hurricane
   – Interactions with NASA about next generation OSVW mission
• January 2007
   – Briefed Vice Admiral Lautenbacher
   – Presentation given at AMS Annual Meeting
• February 2007
   – Briefed NOAA Observing Systems Council
         Feedback from DoD
• DoD support for XOVWM would bolster efforts to
  move toward NOAA’s operational requirements
  and limit post-QuikSCAT data gap

• Reference IHC Action Item #2: ―Satellite Ocean
  Surface Vector Winds Operational Impacts and
  Requirements‖ – Thursday

• Informal meeting in the hall after this session


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