Skynet by pengtt


									Space Systems Forecast


Outlook                                                                          10 Year Unit Production Forecast
                                                                                                    2004 - 2013
   EADS-Astrium, as prime contractor for Skynet 5, is responsible                   Units
    for the design and construction of two Skynet spacecraft as well as
    the implementation of ground segment upgrades
   Upgrades to ground system are expected to double the bandwidth               1

    available from Skynet 4s
   The U.K., France and Italy win the NATO Satcom Post 2000                     0
                                                                                     2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    military communications contract with their bid of bundled                        0    0    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0
    services from Skynet 5, Syracuse III and Sicral

Description. Skynets are military communications              Application.  The Skynet satellite communications
satellites used by the United Kingdom Ministry of             network links U.K. defense forces around the world by
Defence.                                                      way of SHF and UHF receiver payloads.
Sponsor. United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MoD).            Price Range. Approximately $734 million was paid for
                                                              the six Skynet 4 spacecraft. Skynet 5 satellites are
Status. Operational. Four Skynet 4s are in service. The
                                                              expected to cost approximately $280 million each. The
Skynet 5 satellite system is scheduled to begin oper-
                                                              contract value for the delivery of the entire Skynet 5
ations in 2007.
                                                              satellite communications service will be more than $4.2
Total Produced. Twelve: 10 Skynets and two NATO 4             billion.
(Skynet) satellites.

EADS Astrium,, Gunnels Wood Road, Stevenage, SG1 2AS United Kingdom, Tel: 44 1438 31 34 51,
  Fax: 44 1438 77 36 37 (Satellite Bus)
EADS Astrium, Subdivision HQ,, BP 1, 37, Avenue Louis Breguet, Velizy-Villacoublay, F-78146
  France, Tel: 33 1 34 88 3, Fax: 33 1 34 88 4, Prime (AOCS)
Paradigm Secure Communications, Gunnels Wood Road, Stevenage, Hertfordshire, SG1 2AS United Kingdom, Prime
EMS Technologies, Inc,,         660 Engineering Drive,     Norcross,   GA     30091 United States,
  Tel: 1 (770) 263-9200, Ext: 4326, Fax: 1 (770) 447-4397, Email: (UHF Antennas; Low Noise Amplifiers)
Com Dev Ltd, 155 Sheldon Drive, Cambridge, N1R 7H6 Ontario, Canada (Core Payload Electronics)
EADS Astrium, Anchorage Road, Portsmouth, PO3 5PU Hants, United Kingdom, Tel: 44 0705 664966, Fax: 44 0705 690455
  (Communications Payload)
Vega Group plc, 2 Falcon Way, Shire Park, Welwyn Garden City, AL7 1TW United Kingdom,                              Tel: 44 1707 391999,
  Fax: 44 1707 393909, Email:, RDT+E (Technical Support)
RT Logic, 1042 Elkton Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80907 United States, Tel: 1 (719) 598-2807 (Satellite Baseband Systems;
  S-Band Modem Systems)

                                                                                                                     September 2004
Skynet, Page 2                                                                                 Space Systems Forecast

                                                Technical Data
Design Features. Skynet spacecraft borrow many of the             transponders has been increased to 50 W each, serving
features of the three-axis-stabilized British Aerospace           one channel of 25 kHz. The antenna is the Earth cover
OTS and ECS commercial communications satellite                   helical model. The system is also equipped with a
designs (Matra Marconi Space acquired British                     steerable high power spot and an SHF transmit and
Aerospace Space Systems in 1994). The satellite                   receive antenna.
features a four-channel SHF transponder that uses four
                                                                  As an enhanced version of the three Skynet 4, Stage 1
different antenna coverage patterns to provide spot
                                                                  satellites and the two similar NATO 4 spacecraft, the
beam European coverage, narrow beam European
                                                                  modified communications payload incorporates steer-
coverage, hemisphere coverage, and wide Earth
                                                                  able antennas for SHF spot beam communications. It
                                                                  also provides increased power and a superior
The Skynet 4 communications payload is provided with              anti-jamming capability while, at UHF, a fully tunable
tunable UHF. The power of each of the two UHF                     system offers increased flexibility.
                                                          Metric                               U.S.
    Height:                                               2.1 m                                6.9 ft
    Length:                                               1.9 m                                6.2 ft
    Width:                                                1.4 m                                4.6 ft
    Width with Solar Array Span:                          16 m                                 52.5 ft

   In-Orbit Mass:                                         700 kg                               2,297 lb

    Number of Channels:                                   4 SHF, 2 UHF, 1 EHF (45 GHz)
    Stabilization:                                        3-axis
    Power Supply:                                         1.2 kW
    Design Life:                                          7 years
         All weights approximate, based on ECS figures.

                                       Artist’s Impression of a Skynet 5 Satellite

September 2004
Space Systems Forecast                          Skynet, Page 3

                         Source: EADS Astrium

                                                September 2004
Skynet, Page 4                                                                             Space Systems Forecast

NATO 4. In 1987, NATO selected British Aerospace to        Skynet 4 Stage 2. The U.K. Ministry of Defence
build a pair of NATO 4 communications satellites to        procured three additional Skynet 4 Stage 2 satellites to
provide military and diplomatic links among member         replace the existing models as they retire. These
countries. The contract marked the first time a non-U.S.   satellites – designated 4D, 4E and 4F – are improved
company was selected to supply spacecraft for the          versions of the Skynet 4 models, primarily the
European defense organization. The value of the            communications payload. An enhanced payload, for
satellite contract was approximately $270 million.         example, features a steerable SHF spot beam antenna,
Working with BAE as prime subcontractor on the             more power (50 watts) and an anti-jam capability. In
NATO 4 project, Marconi Space Systems was                  addition, each will reportedly be interoperable with the
responsible for the communications payload.                French Syracuse military satellite system, allowing
                                                           users to access either satellite system with one set of
NATO 4s are nearly identical to the Skynet 4 satellites.
                                                           ground equipment. Design life is seven years.
The first NATO 4 satellite (NATO 4A) was launched
aboard a McDonnell Douglas Delta II 7925 booster in        Skynet 5. Operating in EHF, SHF and UHF, Skynet 5
1991. McDonnell Douglas (now part of Boeing                satellites will feature fully redundant systems,
Company) launched a second NATO 4 satellite on a           interoperability with United States communications
Delta booster in 1993.                                     systems, and the ability to serve fixed, mobile and
                                                           man-portable terminals.

                                               Program Review
Background. The first European Skynet milsatcom was        The MoD picked BAE in 1981 to provide two Skynet
built in the U.S. under the Initial Defense                4s, Skynet 4A and 4B. Skynet 4C was later ordered and
Communication Satellite Program (IDCSP). IDCSP             the MoD exercised options on an additional three. The
satellites provided narrowband services in the X-band      British Skynets use a command and control system built
from a spin-stabilized platform. In 1969, the U.S.         by Harris Corp’s Government Communications Systems
launched an augmented version of the IDCSP system          Division (Melbourne, Florida). The Harris system
for the United Kingdom, called Skynet. The cylindrical     receives satellite telemetry and transmits operational
422 kilogram satellite was 810 mm high and 1,370 mm        commands to keep the spacecraft in their orbital slots.
in diameter. A second satellite, Skynet -1B, followed a
                                                           Skynet 4 Stage 2. In 1989, Marconi Space Systems
year later.
                                                           outlined plans for two follow-on Skynet satellites to
During the 1970s, the U.S. replaced IDCSP with the         launch in the latter part of the 1990s as part of a study
more advanced Defense Satellite Communications             commissioned by the U.K. Ministry of Defence.
System (DSCS), which features a wider bandwidth and        Skynet 4D and 4E satellites follow in the footsteps of
more power. A similar evolution occurred in the U.K.,      the earlier Skynet 4 design but feature a number of
where the British government developed the Skynet 2        improvements, including better anti-jam capabilities.
satellites. These offered a more powerful payload but      The cost of the two-satellite program, including launch,
retained the narrow bandwidth operations. Skynet 2         was approximately $450 million. Matra Marconi Space
was the first European-built milsatcom, with some U.S.     confirmed receipt of an order for a third satellite in the
assistance on the payload. Its development marked the      procurement package in 1996.
turning point where national pride in its indigenously
                                                           Next-Generation Satellites.       While the Skynet 4
built systems turned European milsatcom efforts away
                                                           follow-on systems were being procured, the U.K. MoD
from interoperability with U.S. systems. (King, Hills,
The Challenge of Shared Military Communications, 2002)
                                                           began casting about for a replacement for the entire
                                                           Skynet 4 network. Three potential programs were
The Skynet 4 military communications satellites were       quickly identified as being viable options: Private
the first to be procured by the U.K. Ministry of Defence   Finance Initiative (PFI), Trimilsatcom and Skynet 5.
since the Skynet 2B spacecraft was launched in 1974
(Skynet 3 was canceled that same year). Since then, the    In 1998, the MoD considered turning to a privately
MoD has relied primarily on U.S. and NATO satellites       financed and operated constellation of communications
to communicate with its worldwide land and sea forces.     satellites that would serve commercial customers as
During the Falklands campaign, British forces resorted     well as supplying excess capacity to the MoD in times
to transmitting messages by way of the civilian Inmarsat   of crisis. Called the Private Finance Initiative (PFI), the
system.                                                    program would allow civilian operators access to choice

September 2004
Space Systems Forecast                                                                             Skynet, Page 5

orbital slots currently consigned to the MoD for Skynet    board an Ariane 4. The spacecraft was launched along
satellites.                                                with Italy’s Sicral-1 military satellite, and carries an
                                                           experimental sensor, which measures nuclear radiation,
Trimilsatcom was envisioned as a Pan-European effort
                                                           for the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency
that would initially involve France, Germany and the
                                                           (DERA) of the U.K.
U.K., but with the possibility of other NATO nations
eventually signing on to a degree of involvement equal     Paradigm Named “Preferred Bidder” for U.K.
to their military communications needs. By jointly         Milsatcom Contract. In February 2002, the U.K. chose
developing this system, the European partners would        Paradigm, a subsidiary of Astrium (now EADS), as the
save money, compared to the costs of creating an           preferred bidder for the $2.8 billion (now $4.2 billion)
entirely new system alone. An initial Memorandum of        Skynet 5 military communications contract under a
Understanding was signed by the three nations in late      Private Finance Initiative. Paradigm took over the five
1997 to begin development of Trimilsatcom, with an         existing Skynet 4 birds (three U.K., two NATO) and
expected launch date of 2005.                              will add Astrium-built Skynet 5A in late 2006 and
                                                           Skynet 5B in late 2007; both will be based on the
In 1998, however, the U.K. MoD did an abrupt
                                                           Eurostar 3000 bus.
about-face and withdrew from Trimilsatcom in favor of
building its own system, designated Skynet 5. Aside        Design Requirements. Skynet 5 is to provide Ultra
from rumors of shortfalls in German funding for the        High Frequency (UHF) and Super High Frequency
project, the U.K. was concerned that the Trimilsatcom      (SHF) communication capabilities. Early in the design
system would not be ready in time to replace aging         phase, the Skynet 5 procurement boundary was adjusted
Skynet 4 satellites.                                       to include Maritime and Land terminals and remove the
                                                           EHF capability. The U.K. does not exactly require
The British Ministry of Defence awarded contracts in
                                                           processed EHF, although it does require interoperability
April 1999, each worth $48 million, to Matra Marconi
                                                           with U.S. Navy networks.
Space and Lockheed Martin to conduct Skynet 5 design
studies. The design phase studies focused on the           Later, the U.K. MoD began looking into integrating
procurement of Skynet 5 through a PFI. This approach       EHF service under a bilateral agreement with the U.S.
requires that the industry team selected finance the       in which Skynet 5 would participate in the Milstar
satellite construction program and develop communica-      follow-on program for the Advanced Extremely High
tions service catalogs, charging structures and billing    Frequency (AEHF) satellites. In 2004, the MoD
systems. Under this arrangement, the contractor would      announced that EHF capabilities would be pursued via a
be able to offer communications services to other          separate contract worth approximately EUR191 million,
military and commercial users.                             and that the down select for this contract would take
                                                           place in 2005. The U.S.-built Lockheed Martin AEHF
Astrium created a team around Paradigm Secure
                                                           satellites (see separate Advanced EHF report in this
Communications to address financing and communi-
                                                           Tab) are expected to win this competition.
cations service issues.  Team members included
Motorola, Logica, Cogent, TRW (now Northrop                EADS Takes Over. A Skynet 5 production contract was
Grumman) and System Engineering Assessment.                to be awarded in August 2002 to Astrium’s Paradigm
Lockheed Martin formed the Rosetta team, which             subsidiary, but was delayed. In early 2003, the EADS
included British Telecommunications   and British          mega-conglomerate acquired the remaining 25 percent
Aerospace.                                                 shares in Astrium from BAE Systems, and EADS-
                                                           Astrium became the proposed Skynet 5 prime
U.K. Approves PFI. In July 2001, England decided to
go ahead with the PFI, making Skynet 5 a commercial
endeavor. As part of the agreement, the U.K. will not      L-3 Storm to Supply Ground Systems. In May 2003,
fund any part of the program. Instead, it retains          Astrium awarded Storm Control Systems Ltd (L-3
guaranteed capacity use wherever and whenever it           Storm), a subsidiary of L-3 Communications, a $7.5
needs, but allows Skynet services to be marketed to        million-plus contract to supply satellite command and
other nations, which helps the manufacturer raise          control software for use in the Skynet 4 and Skynet 5
funding for the constellation. The PFI also helps the      Satellite Control Centres (SCC). The software is being
other leaseholders avoid the costs of designing,           developed using L-3 Storm’s integrated suite of
developing, constructing, and launching their own          products, InControl-NextGeneration™. The system will
systems. The final contractor will assume responsibility   support the launch and early orbit phase for Skynet 5,
for the Skynet 4 constellation.                            and the on-station operations for both Skynet 4 and
                                                           Skynet 5.
Skynet 4F Launched. In February 2001, Skynet 4F was
launched as part of a dedicated twin defense payload on

                                                                                                  September 2004
Skynet, Page 6                                                                              Space Systems Forecast

Recent Activity                                               5 spacecraft and the implementation of upgrades to the
Skynet 5 Deal Concluded. In October 2003, the U.K.            Skynet ground segments in the U.K.
MoD signed a contract with EADS subsidiary Paradigm
                                                              NATO SATCOM Post-2000. In May 2004, the NATO
Secure Communications for 15 years of satellite
                                                              C3 Agency completed the source selection for NATO
communication services and all related hardware.
                                                              SHF and UHF capability. The joint bid submitted by
Paradigm will also operate the MoD’s existing four
                                                              the U.K., Italy and France edged out the U.S. bid to
Skynet 4s, while also agreeing to add two new Skynet
                                                              supply these services between 2005 and 2019. The
5s. The deal, worth $4.2 billion, was financed by
                                                              proposal form the consortium was within the NATO
Paradigm through a two-tranche, 12.5-year loan with a
                                                              funding ceiling of EUR457 million.
consortium of 33 banks. EADS is taking a 20 percent
equity stake in financing the Skynet project.                 Skynet Software Critical Design Review. In April
                                                              2004, L-3 Storm Control Systems Ltd. completed the
Paradigm Awards Contract. Following the PFI signing
                                                              CDR for Skynet operating software. The software,
in October 2003, EADS Astrium was officially awarded
                                                              known as I4S, will operate the Satellite Control Center
a contract for the design and construction of two Skynet
                                                              (SCC) for Skynet 4 and Skynet 5 spacecraft.

    Month          Year         Major Development
    Nov            1974         Skynet 2B launched on Thorad Delta
    Dec            1988         Skynet 4B launched on Ariane 4
    Dec            1989         Skynet 4A launched on Titan III
    Aug            1990         Skynet 4C launched on Ariane 44LP
    Jan            1991         NATO 4A launched on Delta II
    Dec            1993         NATO 4B launched on Delta II
    Jan            1998         Skynet 4D launched on Delta II
    Feb            1999         Skynet 4E launched on Ariane 44L
    Feb            2001         Skynet 4F launched on Ariane 4
    Mid            2002         U.K. selects Paradigm as preferred bidder for Skynet 5 satellites
    Fall           2002         U.K. submits joint Skynet/Syracuse III/Sicral bid for NATO Satcom
    Jun            2003         Paradigm begins initial Skynet 4 operations
    May            2004         NATO announces Satcom Post-2000 contract award
    Late           2006         Scheduled launch of Skynet 5A
    Late           2007         Scheduled launch of Skynet 5B

                                             Forecast Rationale
The U.K. and EADS-Astrium signed the Skynet 5                 The fifteen-year contract also includes other service
military telecommunications contract in May 2004. The         protection measures built into it to ensure that the
agreement marks the first time a government has relied        program moves forward. These are inclusive even if the
solely on a private funding initiative for its secure         contractors encounter technical, managerial or
military satellite communications. Under the PFI,             scheduling problems. The MoD believes that the notion
Paradigm is free to offer the same levels of Skynet           of imposing penalties, provided for in the contract,
service and security to other governments and                 should be enough to ensure that contractors adhere to
organizations, such as NATO, pending approval from            schedules.
the U.K. government. As Paradigm gains more Skynet
                                                              A central issue of the contract is an upgrade to the
customers, the U.K. MoD will either pay less for its
                                                              MoD’s ground stations that the Ministry believes will
lease or directly receive a share in the profits from the
                                                              double the bandwidth capacity of the Skynet 4
new contracts. The contract also guarantees that the
                                                              spacecraft. The increased bandwidth may also be
MoD will have access to no less than 50 percent
                                                              enough to eliminate the eventual possibility of a third
capacity on the Skynet system. If Paradigm does not
                                                              Skynet 5 during the forecast period. The ground station
furnish the required capacity then the contract calls for a
                                                              upgrades have already begun and are on schedule to be
no-payment clause on behalf of the MoD.
                                                              completed by March 2005.

September 2004
Space Systems Forecast                                                                                              Skynet, Page 7

The spring of 2004 brought news of NATO’s selection                       conjunction with the nation’s existing Skynet 4s but will
of a winner for its Satcom Post-2000 secure military                      ultimately replace Skynets 4D and 4E, whose seven-
communications contract. As we anticipated, the U.K.                      year design lives expire in the next two years. Further
backed the Skynet 5 system on the proposal, in                            Skynet 5 production is not planned for the NATO
conjunction with foreign partners, and came away with                     Satcom Post-2000 requirements; if anything, the
the contract. The resulting bid was a bundled milsatcom                   Syracuse III and Sicral systems will procure additional
service offering from Skynet 5, France’s Syracuse III                     spacecraft to the tune of one per constellation. As such,
and Italy’s Sicral spacecraft. NATO currently uses the                    our forecast includes production of two Skynet
Skynet 4-type satellites for its milsatcom needs.                         spacecraft within the 10 year-outlook period.
The U.K.’s Skynet 5A is slated for launch in 2006,
followed by Skynet 5B in 2007. These will operate in

Ten-Year Outlook
                                             ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR PRODUCTION
                                                        High Confidence              Good Confidence         Speculative
                                                             Level                        Level
 Space System                            thru 03   04       05       06        07     08      09       10   11      12     13   04-13
 EUROSTAR-3000S (SKYNET 5)                    0    0         0        1         1      0       0       0    0        0     0       2
 SKYNET 4                                     6    0         0        0         0      0       0       0    0        0     0       0
Subtotal - ASTRIUM                            6    0         0        1         1      0       0       0    0        0     0       2

 NATO 4                                       2    0         0        0         0      0       0       0    0        0     0       0
Subtotal - BRITISH AEROSPACE SPACE SYS        2    0         0        0         0      0       0       0    0        0     0       0

Total Production                              8    0         0        1         1      0       0       0    0        0     0       2

                                                                                                                   September 2004

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