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					OMM




WMO


WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION
  CHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON
             NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION



      World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
                Geneva, Switzerland
OMM
                 Weather, water and climate-related
                             hazards
WMO




                                            Hot & cold spells     Droughts

        El Niño                  Tropical cyclones
                                                  River basin flooding

                                                  Heavy precipitations
                             Storm surges
                                                    (rain or snow)
                           Ice Storms        Storm (winds)
                   Dust storms   Wildland fires
           Hail&Lightning           & haze
                        Mud & landslides
      Flash floods
                   Avalanches
         Tornadoes
OMM
      Regional distribution of natural disasters
                     (1993-2002)
WMO




               Europe   Oceania
                                   Africa
                14%       3%
                                    21%



                                            Americas
                                              20%

                Asia
                42%
OMM
      Distribution of people killed
              (1993-2002)
WMO



                    High human
                    development
                         2%


                                    Medium
                                     human
                                  development
                                      32%
       Low human
      development
          66%
OMM
      Hydro-meteorological and geophysical
             disasters (1993-2002)
WMO


               1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected
               3- Number killed


       3

       2

       1

           0         20         40             60          80         100

               Hydrometeorological disasters        Geophysical disasters
OMM
       Evolution of natural disasters and their
                       impacts
WMO


  3000

  2500                               Nb of reported
                                     disasters
  2000
                                     Nb reported killed
                                     (thousands)
  1500
                                     Nb reported affected
  1000                               (millions)
                                     Damage (billions US$)
      500

        0
            1970s   1980s   1990s
OMM
      Climate change - Third IPCC assessment
                 report - impacts
WMO

  In 2100 half of the world population will be under
  water stress
  Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased
  desertification
  Tropical zones: Increased health risks
  High latitudes: permafrost decrease
  Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water
  intrusions
  Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars
  per year (Munich Re)
OMM

         Role of WMO in disaster management
WMO

                                Risk identification
         Response
                                Knowledge management

                                Risk management
Preparedness         Recovery   applications (agriculture,
                                water resources, etc)

        Mitigation              Preparedness and
                                emergency management
        Prevention
                                Governance support
OMM

                      Risk Identification

WMO



      Monitoring

      Early warnings for weather water or climate
      related disasters

      Adaptation measures

      Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis
OMM

      Risk Identification: monitoring (1)
WMO
OMM

      Risk Identification: monitoring (2)
WMO
OMM

      Risk Identification: monitoring (3)
WMO
OMM
      Risk Identification: monitoring (4)

WMO
OMM

         Risk Identification: monitoring (5)
WMO




      900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000
      floats are planned.
OMM

             Risk Identification: Early warnings (1)
WMO
                               120        96 h       72 h          48 h      24 h
                               h

   Ensemble Pred.                    EPS, Probabilities
        tools
       Global                                    Global models
       models
   Limited Area                                                           L.A. models
     models
  Nowcasting tools                                                        Nowcasting



    Warnings
    Activities

Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and
maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)
OMM

      Risk Identification: Early warnings (2)
WMO


                                          Strike probability
                                          (within 65 nm) of
                                         Typhoon Rusa over
                                         the next 120 hours.
                                         Starting time of the
                                            forecast is 27
                                           August 2002 12
                                                UTC.
                                           Full dots give the
                                          observed position
                                          over the period 27
                                              August to
                                          1 September 2002
           GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS
OMM
         Risk Identification: Early warnings (3)

WMO


      Observational data are needed for the study of
      climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-
      related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in
      advance if adequate climate predictions are
      available
      Regular assessments and authoritative statements on
      climate variability
      Climate alert system for early warnings on pending
      significant climate anomalies
OMM

          Risk Identification: Early warnings (4)

WMO


      WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is
      monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts
      governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies
      Regional Climate Outlook – important development for
      evaluation of seasonal forecasts
      Forums have become regular meetings in some regions,
      where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model
      outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for
      regional and local use
OMM

         Risk Identification: Adaptation measures

WMO

      Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the
      UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of
      reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity
      to weather events and climate change.
      Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate
      and disaster reduction communities to the
      implementation of measures as environmental planning,
      data and information pooling, improved observation
      systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical
      cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.
OMM
         Risk Identification: Vulnerability
                    assessment
WMO

 Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess
 different vulnerabilities.
 A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with
 flood disaster databases with the support of WMO
 through the World Climate Programme as part of the
 activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and
 Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact
 Assessment
OMM

         Risk Identification: Hazard analysis
WMO

  Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are
  needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk
  communication among policy makers and communities.
  Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation
  efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use
  and city planning.
  WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and
  managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue
  and Climate Database Management Projects.
OMM

           Knowledge Management (1)
WMO

 Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve
 smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still
 low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)
 Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact
 weather and in the full utilization of forecast information
  WMO’s World Weather Research Programme
  - support to cooperative international research projects
 and experiments (e.g. THORPEX)
 - translate research findings into policy and operational
 actions for high impact weather phenomena
OMM

                Knowledge Management (2)
WMO
 User education and awareness are essential:
      to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological
      topics
      to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the
      NMHSs are understood by the intended users
      to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and
      preparedness
      to enable emergency management authorities to make well-
      informed decisions
  WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this
 effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings
 OMM
            Risk Management Applications (1)

 WMO


   The WMO’s Technical Commission for Hydrology conducts
a project on “Risk Management”
   Aim to assist   NHSs in implementing risk management
   practices
   Scope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelines
   and best practice for use byNHSs on risk management
   Is a demonstration project which will initially focus on
   Africa and Asia
OMM

             Risk Management Applications (2)

WMO




      The Associated Programme on Flood Management
      Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management
      across sectors
          Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to
          mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop
          community approaches to flood
          management.
          Application of a set of guidelines and best practice
          for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities
          in flood management
OMM
              Risk Management Applications (3)

WMO




 WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme

      Provides guidance on the development of support systems
      for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning
      with the active participation of the Commission for
      Agricultural Meteorology.
OMM

      Preparedness and emergency management

WMO


 Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural
 hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning
 are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction
 Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective
 coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies,
 institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other
 players at local, national and international levels
 WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance
 partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities
 and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction
 activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning
OMM

                   Governance Support
WMO


  Legislation and adequate normative framework are
  essential to implement risk management.
  Political commitment is crucial to allocate the
  necessary resources.
  Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in
  national disaster management plans.
  WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural
  disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority
  action by the Governments.
OMM
          Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
                    Programme (1)
WMO

 Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003)

  Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in
  international disaster reduction activities concerning
  mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of
  meteorological or hydrological origin

  Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on
  Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all
  relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a
  crosscutting programme to enhance international
  cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural
  disaster activities
OMM
      Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
                Programme (2)
WMO


  To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to
  provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response
  to the requirements and needs of Members and
  international community concerning disaster
  reduction in light of related developments
   To encourage and assist Members in
  developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national
  disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully
  integrated manner, especially in coordination with
  national civil defence/disaster coordination offices
OMM
         Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
                   Programme (3)
WMO

      To ensure that activities and results of relevant
      WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of
      the WMO’s participation in the International
      Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
      To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of
      the leading international organizations dealing with
      disaster reduction, in particular through active
      participation in high-level global fora and related
      activities
OMM

               International Framework (1)
WMO



      Natural disasters affect all countries, but
      burden falls disproportionately on developing
      countries
      Support to natural disaster reduction is both
      an issue of sustainable development and a
      matter of environmental justice requiring
      international solidarity
OMM

                International Framework (2)

WMO

      ISDR succeeded IDNDR
      Several significant Declarations, Agendas and
      Conventions:
           Millennium Declaration
           UNFCCC (climate change)
           UNCCD (desertification)
           Freshwater Agenda
           World Summit on Sustainable Development
OMM
                  Conclusions (1)
          Need for an integrated approach
WMO


      National and regional levels
         Role of National Meteorological and
         Hydrological Services
         Cooperation across disciplines and agencies
         Links with academic community
      International level
         Between IGOs and NGOs concerned
         Capacity building and transfer of technology
         activities
OMM
                  Conclusions (2)
          Need for an integrated approach
WMO




      In multiple domains
         observations
         communications
         data processing (incl. NWP)
         …
      Accross disciplines

				
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