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South Africa Tourism Report Q4 2010
Published on September 2010
Report Summary
Tourism Overview
Final official data for 2009 show a slowdown in growth in foreign tourist arrivals for the third consecutive year, with arrivals up by
3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) ' close to BMI's estimate of 3.8%. We continue to question the tourist status of most of the arrivals from
Zimbabwe, however, particularly since the increase in arrivals from that country in 2009 was roughly equivalent to the total net rise in
arrivals to South Africa. Data for January-April 2010 show foreign tourist arrivals rose by over 16% y-o-y. Growth in arrivals from
across Africa was strong, up by almost 21% y-o-y, but arrivals from Zimbabwe continue to dominate, increasing by 73% y-o-y to
220,000 visitors. Growth in arrivals from Europe was subdued at less than 2% y-o-y to about 8,000 visitors.
Hospitality
Preliminary data for the first half of 2010 paint a relatively poor picture for the hospitality sector. The total number of foreign and
domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments fell by 0.5% yo- y. However, the number of tourist room nights
increased by 15% y-o-y in June, clearly boosted by the World Cup.
2010 World Cup
South Africa hosted the 2010 football World Cup from June 11 to July 11. The tournament attracted more than 1.4mn foreign tourists,
a 25% increase compared with June-July 2009. This meant an additional 286,000 visitors, which was well below the 450,000
anticipated by FIFA at the beginning of the year. Most domestic and international observers, especially FIFA, regarded the first World
Cup in Africa as a success for the host nation. Although costs associated with the World Cup escalated in the years leading up to the
tournament, the government identified public transport as the key legacy project.
Forecast Scenario
We forecast that growth in tourist arrivals and tourism receipts in 2010 will pick up sharply due to South Africa hosting the World Cup
and economic recoveries in key source markets. Due to strong growth in arrivals in the early months of 2010, we have also pushed up
our growth forecast for tourist arrivals for the year as a whole to 15% y-o-y. However, further upward revisions to our exchange rate
forecasts this quarter mean that the strength of the rand against the US dollar and the euro over the long term will constrain the
tourism sector.
Sun International
During FY09/10, ending 30 June 2010, South Africa's leading hotel and casino company, Sun International, reported a 1% y-o-y
decrease in revenue to ZAR8.0bn and a 7% y-o-y decline in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
Gaming revenue was in line with the previous year at ZAR6.2bn, while revenue from rooms was down by 5% y-o-y to ZAR857mn.
Overall group occupancy was down by 5% y-o-y at 67% and there was a marginal y-o-y decline in the average room rate to ZAR898.
The fall in occupancy rates was due to weaker international, group and conventions demand at the Sun City, Table Bay and Zambian
hotels. Despite higher room rates, occupancy during the World Cup was also below expectations. Looking ahead, although the
company believes trading conditions are stabilising, it anticipates that demand within the gaming and hospitality sectors will remain
weak in the coming financial year. Some growth in revenue, however, is forecast, particularly from group operations in Chile and
Nigeria.
Comair
Comair, operator of British Airways (BA) in South Africa and the domestic low-cost carrier Kulula, will expand its African route
network from October 2010, with five return flights per week between Johannesburg and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. BA will operate
the new route.
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Table of Content
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Tourism SWOT . 7
South Africa Political SWOT 8
South Africa Economic SWOT ...... 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10
Arrivals .... 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2014 10
Accommodation ....... 12
Table: Hotels Data, 2006-2014... 12
Expenditure ...... 13
Table: Expenditure Data, 2006-2014 .. 13
Inbound Tourism ...... 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2006-2014 ... 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2006-2014 . 15
Outbound Tourism ... 17
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 ....... 17
The 'World Cup Effect' .... 18
Table: Key Tourism Source Markets That Participated In The 2010 World Cup . 19
Market Overview ' Travel ...... 21
Airports .... 21
Commercial Airlines 22
Special Focus: Jet Fuel Costs .. 24
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 25
Table: Oil Product Price Data & Forecasts, 2010 (US$/bbl) ...... 27
Table: Oil Product Price Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl) ..... 28
Car Rental 28
Market Overview ' Hospitality ...... 30
Accommodation Developments 30
Casinos .... 32
Table: Key Players In South Africa's Hotel & Gaming Industry . 33
Game Lodges ... 34
Regional Case Study: Accor .... 35
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2010 ..... 35
Business Environment Outlook .... 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ... 37
BMI's Security Ratings .... 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings .... 38
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ...... 39
South Africa's Security Ratings ....... 39
City Terrorism Ratings .... 40
Table: BMI's Africa City Terrorism Index .. 41
Middle East And Africa Security Overview ...... 43
Special Report: Crime ... 45
Currency Forecast . 47
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Table: BMI's South Africa Currency Forecast, 2010-2011 47
Global Assumptions ..... 49
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012 ...... 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014 ...... 50
Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 ... 51
Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 . 52
Company Profiles .. 53
South African Airways 53
Sun International 55
Southern Sun ....... 57
BMI Methodology .. 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 58
Tourism Industry . 58
Tourism Ratings ' Methodology . 59
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ...... 60
Table: Weighting Of Components ....... 61
City Terrorism Rating ...... 61
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology 63
Sources .... 63
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