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Malaria_indicators.xls - The University of Liverpool

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Malaria_indicators.xls - The University of Liverpool Powered By Docstoc
					This spreadsheet simulates the entire process and how the five rates change with time.
The user can alter the following to those though appropriate to their own clinical setting, and to convince themselves that the conclu

The parameters to be altered are in the left hand column and explanatory text is above and/or to the right of these values

The process is driven by the spread of drug resistance alleles, so a population genetic basis so is on a timescale of malaria 'genera
i.e. the time for a malaria parasite to complete its lifecycle e.g. from sporozoite inoculated into in Person A to sporozoite subsequen
Note that the only effect of this is to stretch or shrink the timescale along the X axis
            5 enter no. of malaria generations per year (suggested default is 5)

Spread of resistance is governed by two parameters: starting frequency and rate of spread per generation
     0.001 enter starting frequency of resistance
        1.1 enter rate of spread per parasite generation: 1.05 is 5% increase per generation, 1.2 is 20% increase per generation, a

         0.7 enter the probability that an infection with the 'resistant' allele will survive drug therapy: 0.1 is 10%, 0.5 is 50% etc
         0.5 the probability that a clone will be detected by molecular analyses at the time of treatment. If not detected, recrudescen

Clinical failure rate is the probability that IF someone has symptomatic malaria, then this rate is the probability that he/she will not be
NOTE clinical failure rate assumes that symptoms are caused by one 'pathogenic' clone and symptoms will persist unless this clone
i.e. clinical success does not require all clones to be cleared

Parasitological failure rates are the probability that at least one of the clones in an individual will survive treatment. Obviously more
(a methodological point: for simplicity I have assumed each person has the same number of clones and ignored distribution of clone
           3 enter number of clones per person

Direct mortality
         2.5   This is the number of symptomatic infections per year; it is required to get mortality rates per year. Default is 2.5 from K
         0.2   The proportion of symptomatic cases that are treated inappropriately… this gives baseline mortality irrespective of dru
       0.005   chance (per episode of symptomatic malaria) of dying if the episode is treated inappropriately
       0.005   chance (per episode of symptomatic malaria) of dying if the episode is treated appropriately with drug, but treatment fa
               (it is assumed chance of dying is negligible if treated and drug sensitive)

Indirect mortality rates.
       0.005   the probability (per episode of symptomatic malaria) of indirect mortality if the episode is treated inappropriately
       0.005   the probability (per episode of symptomatic malaria) of indirect mortality if the episode is treated appropriately, but fail
           3   enter number of consecutive malaria infections that a person must fail
        0.01   enter probability of dying if fail this number of consecutive infections

All cause mortality
        0.01 This is a basal, constant level of mortality excluding malaria deaths. All cause mortality is obtined by adding direct- and

Perceived efficacy
        0.33 enter proportion of fevers that are actually caused by malaria
         0.8 enter probability that a treatment failure is recognised (rather than recrudescing much later and being regarded as a se


generations time (years) allele freq true clinical failure rate apparent clinical failure
          0            0       0.001                     0.0007                  0.00035
          1          0.2      0.0011             0.000769923               0.000384962
          2          0.4    0.00121              0.000846822               0.000423411
          3          0.6 0.001331                0.000931392               0.000465696
          4          0.8 0.001463                0.001024395               0.000512197
          5            1    0.00161              0.001126669               0.000563335
          6          1.2    0.00177              0.001239137               0.000619568
          7          1.4 0.001947                0.001362809               0.000681405
 8    1.6   0.002141   0.001498798   0.000749399
 9    1.8   0.002355   0.001648325   0.000824163
10      2    0.00259   0.001812731   0.000906365
11    2.2   0.002848   0.001993488   0.000996744
12    2.4   0.003132   0.002192212   0.001096106
13    2.6   0.003444   0.002410678   0.001205339
14    2.8   0.003787   0.002650833   0.001325417
15      3   0.004164   0.002914813   0.001457406
16    3.2   0.004579   0.003204959    0.00160248
17    3.4   0.005034   0.003523842   0.001761921
18    3.6   0.005535   0.003874276   0.001937138
19    3.8   0.006085   0.004259346   0.002129673
20      4   0.006689   0.004682431   0.002341216
21    4.2   0.007353   0.005147231   0.002573616
22    4.4   0.008083   0.005657794   0.002828897
23    4.6   0.008884   0.006218547   0.003109274
24    4.8   0.009763   0.006834331   0.003417165
25      5   0.010729   0.007510431   0.003755216
26    5.2   0.011789    0.00825262    0.00412631
27    5.4   0.012953   0.009067192   0.004533596
28    5.6    0.01423   0.009961009   0.004980504
29    5.8   0.015631    0.01094154    0.00547077
30      6   0.017167   0.012016911   0.006008455
31    6.2   0.018851   0.013195948   0.006597974
32    6.4   0.020697   0.014488231   0.007244115
33    6.6    0.02272   0.015904136   0.007952068
34    6.8   0.024936   0.017454892   0.008727446
35      7   0.027361   0.019152623   0.009576312
36    7.2   0.030015   0.021010399     0.0105052
37    7.4   0.032918   0.023042278   0.011521139
38    7.6    0.03609   0.025263345   0.012631672
39    7.8   0.039557   0.027689746   0.013844873
40      8   0.043341    0.03033871   0.015169355
41    8.2   0.047469   0.033228565   0.016614283
42    8.4    0.05197   0.036378734   0.018189367
43    8.6   0.056871   0.039809718   0.019904859
44    8.8   0.062204   0.043543056   0.021771528
45      9   0.068002   0.047601261    0.02380063
46    9.2   0.074297   0.052007725   0.026003863
47    9.4   0.081124   0.056786592   0.028393296
48    9.6   0.088518   0.061962587   0.030981294
49    9.8   0.096515   0.067560811   0.033780406
50    10    0.105152   0.073606476   0.036803238
51   10.2   0.114464   0.080124597   0.040062299
52   10.4   0.124485   0.087139624   0.043569812
53   10.6    0.13525   0.094675023   0.047337512
54   10.8    0.14679   0.102752793   0.051376397
55    11    0.159133   0.111392939    0.05569647
56   11.2   0.172304   0.120612887   0.060306443
57   11.4   0.186324   0.130426867   0.065213433
58   11.6   0.201208   0.140845267   0.070422633
59   11.8   0.216963   0.151873975   0.075936987
60    12    0.233591   0.163513732   0.081756866
61   12.2   0.251085    0.17575952    0.08787976
62   12.4   0.269429   0.188600009   0.094300004
63   12.6   0.288596   0.202017091   0.101008546
 64   12.8   0.308551   0.215985547   0.107992774
 65    13    0.329247   0.230472845   0.115236422
 66   13.2   0.350627   0.245439122   0.122719561
 67   13.4   0.372625   0.260837363   0.130418682
 68   13.6   0.395163   0.276613784   0.138306892
 69   13.8   0.418155   0.292708422   0.146354211
 70    14    0.441508   0.309055939   0.154527969
 71   14.2   0.465124   0.325586608   0.162793304
 72   14.4   0.488896   0.342227457   0.171113729
 73   14.6   0.512719   0.358903539    0.17945177
 74   14.8   0.536485   0.375539269   0.187769634
 75    15    0.560085   0.392059789   0.196029894
 76   15.2   0.583418    0.40839231   0.204196155
 77   15.4   0.606382   0.424467369   0.212233684
 78   15.6   0.628886   0.440219961   0.220109981
 79   15.8   0.650844   0.455590523   0.227795261
 80    16     0.67218    0.47052571   0.235262855
 81   16.2   0.692827   0.484978984   0.242489492
 82   16.4    0.71273   0.498910977   0.249455488
 83   16.6   0.731842   0.512289656   0.256144828
 84   16.8   0.750129   0.525090289   0.262545145
 85    17    0.767565   0.537295245   0.268647622
 86   17.2   0.784134   0.548893635   0.274446817
 87   17.4    0.79983    0.55988085   0.279940425
 88   17.6   0.814654   0.570258002   0.285129001
 89   17.8   0.828616   0.580031303   0.290015652
 90    18    0.841731   0.589211424   0.294605712
 91   18.2   0.854018    0.59781283   0.298906415
 92   18.4   0.865504   0.605853144   0.302926572
 93   18.6   0.876218   0.613352522   0.306676261
 94   18.8    0.88619    0.62033308    0.31016654
 95    19    0.895455   0.626818365   0.313409182
 96   19.2   0.904047   0.632832877   0.316416438
 97   19.4   0.912002   0.638401657   0.319200828
 98   19.6   0.919357   0.643549917   0.321774959
 99   19.8   0.926147   0.648302741   0.324151371
100    20    0.932407   0.652684821   0.326342411
101   20.2   0.938172   0.656720255   0.328360127
102   20.4   0.943475   0.660432377   0.330216189
103   20.6   0.948348   0.663843639   0.331921819
104   20.8   0.952822    0.66697551   0.333487755
105    21    0.956926   0.669848419    0.33492421
106   21.2   0.960688   0.672481716   0.336240858
107   21.4   0.964134   0.674893653   0.337446827
108   21.6   0.967288   0.677101386   0.338550693
109   21.8   0.970173   0.679120987   0.339560494
110    22    0.972811   0.680967472   0.340483736
111   22.2   0.975221   0.682654828   0.341327414
112   22.4   0.977423   0.684196062   0.342098031
113   22.6   0.979433   0.685603235   0.342801617
114   22.8   0.981268   0.686887515   0.343443758
115    23    0.982942   0.688059225   0.344029612
116   23.2   0.984468    0.68912789   0.344563945
117   23.4    0.98586   0.690102288   0.345051144
118   23.6   0.987129   0.690990499    0.34549525
119   23.8   0.988286    0.69179995   0.345899975
120    24    0.989339   0.692537462   0.346268731
121   24.2   0.990299   0.693209293   0.346604647
122   24.4   0.991173   0.693821181   0.346910591
123   24.6   0.991969   0.694378381   0.347189191
124   24.8   0.992694   0.694885703   0.347442852
125    25    0.993354   0.695347549   0.347673775
126   25.2   0.993954   0.695767942   0.347883971
127   25.4   0.994501   0.696150559    0.34807528
128   25.6   0.994998   0.696498758   0.348249379
129   25.8   0.995451   0.696815605   0.348407802
130    26    0.995863   0.697103897   0.348551949
131   26.2   0.996237   0.697366189   0.348683094
132   26.4   0.996578   0.697604807   0.348802404
133   26.6   0.996888   0.697821874   0.348910937
134   26.8    0.99717   0.698019325   0.349009663
135    27    0.997427   0.698198923   0.349099462
136   27.2    0.99766   0.698362275   0.349181137
137   27.4   0.997873   0.698510842   0.349255421
138   27.6   0.998066   0.698645958   0.349322979
139   27.8   0.998241   0.698768836   0.349384418
140    28    0.998401   0.698880581   0.349440291
141   28.2   0.998546   0.698982199   0.349491099
142   28.4   0.998678   0.699074604   0.349537302
143   28.6   0.998798    0.69915863   0.349579315
144   28.8   0.998907   0.699235034   0.349617517
145    29    0.999006   0.699304507   0.349652254
146   29.2   0.999097   0.699367677   0.349683838
147   29.4   0.999179   0.699425114   0.349712557
148   29.6   0.999253   0.699477337   0.349738669
149   29.8   0.999321    0.69952482    0.34976241
150    30    0.999383   0.699567991   0.349783996
151   30.2   0.999439   0.699607243   0.349803621
152   30.4    0.99949    0.69964293   0.349821465
153   30.6   0.999536   0.699675376   0.349837688
154   30.8   0.999578   0.699704874   0.349852437
155    31    0.999617   0.699731694   0.349865847
156   31.2   0.999652   0.699756077   0.349878038
157   31.4   0.999683   0.699778245   0.349889122
158   31.6   0.999712   0.699798398   0.349899199
159   31.8   0.999738   0.699816721    0.34990836
160    32    0.999762   0.699833379   0.349916689
161   32.2   0.999784   0.699848523   0.349924261
162   32.4   0.999803   0.699862291   0.349931145
163   32.6   0.999821   0.699874808   0.349937404
164   32.8   0.999837   0.699886187   0.349943093
165    33    0.999852   0.699896532   0.349948266
166   33.2   0.999866   0.699905937   0.349952968
167   33.4   0.999878   0.699914487   0.349957244
168   33.6   0.999889    0.69992226    0.34996113
169   33.8   0.999899   0.699929327   0.349964663
170    34    0.999908   0.699935751   0.349967875
171   34.2   0.999917   0.699941591   0.349970796
172   34.4   0.999924   0.699946901    0.34997345
173   34.6   0.999931   0.699951728   0.349975864
174   34.8   0.999937   0.699956116   0.349978058
175    35    0.999943   0.699960105   0.349980052
176   35.2   0.999948   0.699963732   0.349981866
177   35.4   0.999953   0.699967029   0.349983514
178   35.6   0.999957   0.699970026   0.349985013
179   35.8   0.999961   0.699972751   0.349986375
180    36    0.999965   0.699975228   0.349987614
181   36.2   0.999968    0.69997748    0.34998874
182   36.4   0.999971   0.699979527   0.349989763
183   36.6   0.999973   0.699981388   0.349990694
184   36.8   0.999976    0.69998308    0.34999154
185    37    0.999978   0.699984618   0.349992309
186   37.2    0.99998   0.699986017   0.349993008
187   37.4   0.999982   0.699987288   0.349993644
188   37.6   0.999983   0.699988443   0.349994222
189   37.8   0.999985   0.699989494   0.349994747
190    38    0.999986   0.699990449   0.349995225
191   38.2   0.999988   0.699991317   0.349995659
192   38.4   0.999989   0.699992107   0.349996053
193   38.6    0.99999   0.699992824   0.349996412
194   38.8   0.999991   0.699993477   0.349996738
195    39    0.999992    0.69999407   0.349997035
196   39.2   0.999992   0.699994609   0.349997304
197   39.4   0.999993   0.699995099   0.349997549
198   39.6   0.999994   0.699995544   0.349997772
199   39.8   0.999994   0.699995949   0.349997975
200    40    0.999995   0.699996318   0.349998159
201   40.2   0.999995   0.699996652   0.349998326
202   40.4   0.999996   0.699996957   0.349998478
203   40.6   0.999996   0.699997233   0.349998617
204   40.8   0.999996   0.699997485   0.349998742
205    41    0.999997   0.699997714   0.349998857
206   41.2   0.999997   0.699997921   0.349998961
207   41.4   0.999997    0.69999811   0.349999055
208   41.6   0.999998   0.699998282   0.349999141
209   41.8   0.999998   0.699998438   0.349999219
210    42    0.999998    0.69999858    0.34999929
211   42.2   0.999998   0.699998709   0.349999355
212   42.4   0.999998   0.699998827   0.349999413
213   42.6   0.999998   0.699998933   0.349999467
214   42.8   0.999999    0.69999903   0.349999515
215    43    0.999999   0.699999118   0.349999559
216   43.2   0.999999   0.699999199   0.349999599
217   43.4   0.999999   0.699999271   0.349999636
218   43.6   0.999999   0.699999338   0.349999669
219   43.8   0.999999   0.699999398   0.349999699
220    44    0.999999   0.699999453   0.349999726
221   44.2   0.999999   0.699999502   0.349999751
222   44.4   0.999999   0.699999548   0.349999774
223   44.6   0.999999   0.699999589   0.349999794
224   44.8   0.999999   0.699999626   0.349999813
225    45           1    0.69999966    0.34999983
226   45.2          1   0.699999691   0.349999846
227   45.4          1   0.699999719    0.34999986
228   45.6          1   0.699999745   0.349999872
229   45.8          1   0.699999768   0.349999884
230    46           1   0.699999789   0.349999894
231   46.2          1   0.699999808   0.349999904
232   46.4   1   0.699999826   0.349999913
233   46.6   1   0.699999841   0.349999921
234   46.8   1   0.699999856   0.349999928
235    47    1   0.699999869   0.349999934
236   47.2   1   0.699999881    0.34999994
237   47.4   1   0.699999892   0.349999946
238   47.6   1   0.699999902   0.349999951
239   47.8   1   0.699999911   0.349999955
240    48    1   0.699999919   0.349999959
241   48.2   1   0.699999926   0.349999963
242   48.4   1   0.699999933   0.349999966
243   48.6   1   0.699999939   0.349999969
244   48.8   1   0.699999944   0.349999972
245    49    1   0.699999949   0.349999975
246   49.2   1   0.699999954   0.349999977
247   49.4   1   0.699999958   0.349999979
248   49.6   1   0.699999962   0.349999981
249   49.8   1   0.699999965   0.349999983
250    50    1   0.699999969   0.349999984
251   50.2   1   0.699999971   0.349999986
252   50.4   1   0.699999974   0.349999987
253   50.6   1   0.699999976   0.349999988
254   50.8   1   0.699999979   0.349999989
255    51    1   0.699999981    0.34999999
256   51.2   1   0.699999982   0.349999991
257   51.4   1   0.699999984   0.349999992
258   51.6   1   0.699999985   0.349999993
259   51.8   1   0.699999987   0.349999993
260    52    1   0.699999988   0.349999994
261   52.2   1   0.699999989   0.349999995
262   52.4   1    0.69999999   0.349999995
263   52.6   1   0.699999991   0.349999995
264   52.8   1   0.699999992   0.349999996
265    53    1   0.699999992   0.349999996
266   53.2   1   0.699999993   0.349999997
267   53.4   1   0.699999994   0.349999997
268   53.6   1   0.699999994   0.349999997
269   53.8   1   0.699999995   0.349999997
270    54    1   0.699999995   0.349999998
271   54.2   1   0.699999996   0.349999998
272   54.4   1   0.699999996   0.349999998
273   54.6   1   0.699999996   0.349999998
274   54.8   1   0.699999997   0.349999998
275    55    1   0.699999997   0.349999999
276   55.2   1   0.699999997   0.349999999
277   55.4   1   0.699999998   0.349999999
278   55.6   1   0.699999998   0.349999999
279   55.8   1   0.699999998   0.349999999
280    56    1   0.699999998   0.349999999
281   56.2   1   0.699999998   0.349999999
282   56.4   1   0.699999999   0.349999999
283   56.6   1   0.699999999   0.349999999
284   56.8   1   0.699999999   0.349999999
285    57    1   0.699999999   0.349999999
286   57.2   1   0.699999999   0.349999999
287   57.4   1   0.699999999          0.35
288   57.6   1   0.699999999   0.35
289   57.8   1   0.699999999   0.35
290    58    1   0.699999999   0.35
291   58.2   1   0.699999999   0.35
292   58.4   1   0.699999999   0.35
293   58.6   1   0.699999999   0.35
294   58.8   1           0.7   0.35
295    59    1           0.7   0.35
296   59.2   1           0.7   0.35
297   59.4   1           0.7   0.35
298   59.6   1           0.7   0.35
299   59.8   1           0.7   0.35
300    60    1           0.7   0.35
301   60.2   1           0.7   0.35
302   60.4   1           0.7   0.35
303   60.6   1           0.7   0.35
304   60.8   1           0.7   0.35
305    61    1           0.7   0.35
306   61.2   1           0.7   0.35
307   61.4   1           0.7   0.35
308   61.6   1           0.7   0.35
309   61.8   1           0.7   0.35
310    62    1           0.7   0.35
311   62.2   1           0.7   0.35
312   62.4   1           0.7   0.35
313   62.6   1           0.7   0.35
314   62.8   1           0.7   0.35
315    63    1           0.7   0.35
316   63.2   1           0.7   0.35
317   63.4   1           0.7   0.35
318   63.6   1           0.7   0.35
319   63.8   1           0.7   0.35
320    64    1           0.7   0.35
321   64.2   1           0.7   0.35
322   64.4   1           0.7   0.35
323   64.6   1           0.7   0.35
324   64.8   1           0.7   0.35
325    65    1           0.7   0.35
326   65.2   1           0.7   0.35
327   65.4   1           0.7   0.35
328   65.6   1           0.7   0.35
329   65.8   1           0.7   0.35
330    66    1           0.7   0.35
331   66.2   1           0.7   0.35
332   66.4   1           0.7   0.35
333   66.6   1           0.7   0.35
334   66.8   1           0.7   0.35
335    67    1           0.7   0.35
336   67.2   1           0.7   0.35
337   67.4   1           0.7   0.35
338   67.6   1           0.7   0.35
339   67.8   1           0.7   0.35
340    68    1           0.7   0.35
341   68.2   1           0.7   0.35
342   68.4   1           0.7   0.35
343   68.6   1           0.7   0.35
344   68.8   1   0.7   0.35
345    69    1   0.7   0.35
346   69.2   1   0.7   0.35
347   69.4   1   0.7   0.35
348   69.6   1   0.7   0.35
349   69.8   1   0.7   0.35
350    70    1   0.7   0.35
351   70.2   1   0.7   0.35
352   70.4   1   0.7   0.35
353   70.6   1   0.7   0.35
354   70.8   1   0.7   0.35
355    71    1   0.7   0.35
356   71.2   1   0.7   0.35
357   71.4   1   0.7   0.35
358   71.6   1   0.7   0.35
359   71.8   1   0.7   0.35
360    72    1   0.7   0.35
361   72.2   1   0.7   0.35
362   72.4   1   0.7   0.35
363   72.6   1   0.7   0.35
364   72.8   1   0.7   0.35
365    73    1   0.7   0.35
366   73.2   1   0.7   0.35
367   73.4   1   0.7   0.35
368   73.6   1   0.7   0.35
369   73.8   1   0.7   0.35
370    74    1   0.7   0.35
371   74.2   1   0.7   0.35
372   74.4   1   0.7   0.35
373   74.6   1   0.7   0.35
374   74.8   1   0.7   0.35
375    75    1   0.7   0.35
376   75.2   1   0.7   0.35
377   75.4   1   0.7   0.35
378   75.6   1   0.7   0.35
379   75.8   1   0.7   0.35
380    76    1   0.7   0.35
381   76.2   1   0.7   0.35
382   76.4   1   0.7   0.35
383   76.6   1   0.7   0.35
384   76.8   1   0.7   0.35
385    77    1   0.7   0.35
386   77.2   1   0.7   0.35
387   77.4   1   0.7   0.35
388   77.6   1   0.7   0.35
389   77.8   1   0.7   0.35
390    78    1   0.7   0.35
391   78.2   1   0.7   0.35
392   78.4   1   0.7   0.35
393   78.6   1   0.7   0.35
394   78.8   1   0.7   0.35
395    79    1   0.7   0.35
396   79.2   1   0.7   0.35
397   79.4   1   0.7   0.35
398   79.6   1   0.7   0.35
399   79.8   1   0.7   0.35
400    80    1   0.7   0.35
401   80.2   1   0.7   0.35
402   80.4   1   0.7   0.35
403   80.6   1   0.7   0.35
404   80.8   1   0.7   0.35
405    81    1   0.7   0.35
406   81.2   1   0.7   0.35
407   81.4   1   0.7   0.35
408   81.6   1   0.7   0.35
409   81.8   1   0.7   0.35
410    82    1   0.7   0.35
411   82.2   1   0.7   0.35
412   82.4   1   0.7   0.35
413   82.6   1   0.7   0.35
414   82.8   1   0.7   0.35
415    83    1   0.7   0.35
416   83.2   1   0.7   0.35
417   83.4   1   0.7   0.35
418   83.6   1   0.7   0.35
419   83.8   1   0.7   0.35
420    84    1   0.7   0.35
421   84.2   1   0.7   0.35
422   84.4   1   0.7   0.35
423   84.6   1   0.7   0.35
424   84.8   1   0.7   0.35
425    85    1   0.7   0.35
426   85.2   1   0.7   0.35
427   85.4   1   0.7   0.35
428   85.6   1   0.7   0.35
429   85.8   1   0.7   0.35
430    86    1   0.7   0.35
431   86.2   1   0.7   0.35
432   86.4   1   0.7   0.35
433   86.6   1   0.7   0.35
434   86.8   1   0.7   0.35
435    87    1   0.7   0.35
436   87.2   1   0.7   0.35
437   87.4   1   0.7   0.35
438   87.6   1   0.7   0.35
439   87.8   1   0.7   0.35
440    88    1   0.7   0.35
441   88.2   1   0.7   0.35
442   88.4   1   0.7   0.35
443   88.6   1   0.7   0.35
444   88.8   1   0.7   0.35
445    89    1   0.7   0.35
446   89.2   1   0.7   0.35
447   89.4   1   0.7   0.35
448   89.6   1   0.7   0.35
449   89.8   1   0.7   0.35
450    90    1   0.7   0.35
451   90.2   1   0.7   0.35
452   90.4   1   0.7   0.35
453   90.6   1   0.7   0.35
454   90.8   1   0.7   0.35
455    91    1   0.7   0.35
456    91.2   1   0.7   0.35
457    91.4   1   0.7   0.35
458    91.6   1   0.7   0.35
459    91.8   1   0.7   0.35
460     92    1   0.7   0.35
461    92.2   1   0.7   0.35
462    92.4   1   0.7   0.35
463    92.6   1   0.7   0.35
464    92.8   1   0.7   0.35
465     93    1   0.7   0.35
466    93.2   1   0.7   0.35
467    93.4   1   0.7   0.35
468    93.6   1   0.7   0.35
469    93.8   1   0.7   0.35
470     94    1   0.7   0.35
471    94.2   1   0.7   0.35
472    94.4   1   0.7   0.35
473    94.6   1   0.7   0.35
474    94.8   1   0.7   0.35
475     95    1   0.7   0.35
476    95.2   1   0.7   0.35
477    95.4   1   0.7   0.35
478    95.6   1   0.7   0.35
479    95.8   1   0.7   0.35
480     96    1   0.7   0.35
481    96.2   1   0.7   0.35
482    96.4   1   0.7   0.35
483    96.6   1   0.7   0.35
484    96.8   1   0.7   0.35
485     97    1   0.7   0.35
486    97.2   1   0.7   0.35
487    97.4   1   0.7   0.35
488    97.6   1   0.7   0.35
489    97.8   1   0.7   0.35
490     98    1   0.7   0.35
491    98.2   1   0.7   0.35
492    98.4   1   0.7   0.35
493    98.6   1   0.7   0.35
494    98.8   1   0.7   0.35
495     99    1   0.7   0.35
496    99.2   1   0.7   0.35
497    99.4   1   0.7   0.35
498    99.6   1   0.7   0.35
499    99.8   1   0.7   0.35
500    100    1   0.7   0.35
501   100.2   1   0.7   0.35
502   100.4   1   0.7   0.35
503   100.6   1   0.7   0.35
504   100.8   1   0.7   0.35
505    101    1   0.7   0.35
506   101.2   1   0.7   0.35
507   101.4   1   0.7   0.35
508   101.6   1   0.7   0.35
509   101.8   1   0.7   0.35
510    102    1   0.7   0.35
511   102.2   1   0.7   0.35
512   102.4   1   0.7   0.35
513   102.6   1   0.7   0.35
514   102.8   1   0.7   0.35
515    103    1   0.7   0.35
516   103.2   1   0.7   0.35
517   103.4   1   0.7   0.35
518   103.6   1   0.7   0.35
519   103.8   1   0.7   0.35
520    104    1   0.7   0.35
521   104.2   1   0.7   0.35
522   104.4   1   0.7   0.35
523   104.6   1   0.7   0.35
524   104.8   1   0.7   0.35
525    105    1   0.7   0.35
526   105.2   1   0.7   0.35
527   105.4   1   0.7   0.35
528   105.6   1   0.7   0.35
529   105.8   1   0.7   0.35
530    106    1   0.7   0.35
531   106.2   1   0.7   0.35
532   106.4   1   0.7   0.35
533   106.6   1   0.7   0.35
534   106.8   1   0.7   0.35
535    107    1   0.7   0.35
536   107.2   1   0.7   0.35
537   107.4   1   0.7   0.35
538   107.6   1   0.7   0.35
539   107.8   1   0.7   0.35
540    108    1   0.7   0.35
541   108.2   1   0.7   0.35
542   108.4   1   0.7   0.35
543   108.6   1   0.7   0.35
544   108.8   1   0.7   0.35
545    109    1   0.7   0.35
546   109.2   1   0.7   0.35
547   109.4   1   0.7   0.35
548   109.6   1   0.7   0.35
549   109.8   1   0.7   0.35
550    110    1   0.7   0.35
551   110.2   1   0.7   0.35
552   110.4   1   0.7   0.35
553   110.6   1   0.7   0.35
554   110.8   1   0.7   0.35
555    111    1   0.7   0.35
556   111.2   1   0.7   0.35
557   111.4   1   0.7   0.35
558   111.6   1   0.7   0.35
559   111.8   1   0.7   0.35
560    112    1   0.7   0.35
561   112.2   1   0.7   0.35
562   112.4   1   0.7   0.35
563   112.6   1   0.7   0.35
564   112.8   1   0.7   0.35
565    113    1   0.7   0.35
566   113.2   1   0.7   0.35
567   113.4   1   0.7   0.35
568   113.6   1   0.7   0.35
569   113.8   1   0.7   0.35
570    114    1   0.7   0.35
571   114.2   1   0.7   0.35
572   114.4   1   0.7   0.35
573   114.6   1   0.7   0.35
574   114.8   1   0.7   0.35
575    115    1   0.7   0.35
576   115.2   1   0.7   0.35
577   115.4   1   0.7   0.35
578   115.6   1   0.7   0.35
579   115.8   1   0.7   0.35
580    116    1   0.7   0.35
581   116.2   1   0.7   0.35
582   116.4   1   0.7   0.35
583   116.6   1   0.7   0.35
584   116.8   1   0.7   0.35
585    117    1   0.7   0.35
586   117.2   1   0.7   0.35
587   117.4   1   0.7   0.35
588   117.6   1   0.7   0.35
589   117.8   1   0.7   0.35
590    118    1   0.7   0.35
591   118.2   1   0.7   0.35
592   118.4   1   0.7   0.35
593   118.6   1   0.7   0.35
594   118.8   1   0.7   0.35
595    119    1   0.7   0.35
596   119.2   1   0.7   0.35
597   119.4   1   0.7   0.35
598   119.6   1   0.7   0.35
599   119.8   1   0.7   0.35
600    120    1   0.7   0.35
 ir own clinical setting, and to convince themselves that the conclusions are robust

anatory text is above and/or to the right of these values

a population genetic basis so is on a timescale of malaria 'generations
m sporozoite inoculated into in Person A to sporozoite subsequently inoculated into person B



uency and rate of spread per generation

5% increase per generation, 1.2 is 20% increase per generation, and so on.

nt' allele will survive drug therapy: 0.1 is 10%, 0.5 is 50% etc
ular analyses at the time of treatment. If not detected, recrudescences will not be recognised. This is used to calculate 'apparent' clinical failure rates

matic malaria, then this rate is the probability that he/she will not be cured
one 'pathogenic' clone and symptoms will persist unless this clone is eradicated


 he clones in an individual will survive treatment. Obviously more clones means higher failure rates
n has the same number of clones and ignored distribution of clones per person)




r; it is required to get mortality rates per year. Default is 2.5 from Kilifi data on Lapdap trial
 inappropriately… this gives baseline mortality irrespective of drug effectiveness
g if the episode is treated inappropriately
g if the episode is treated appropriately with drug, but treatment fails due to drug resistance




 of indirect mortality if the episode is treated inappropriately
 of indirect mortality if the episode is treated appropriately, but fails due to resistance




malaria deaths. All cause mortality is obtined by adding direct- and indirect-malaria mortaility




d (rather than recrudescing much later and being regarded as a separate illness)


                        parasitological failure rate indirect mortality rate perceived efficacy direct mortality (yr)
                                       0.00209853                 0.00270328         0.9998152         0.002505115
                                     0.002307991                0.002704144        0.99979674          0.002505813
                                     0.002538316                0.002705094       0.999776439          0.002506581
                                     0.002791573                0.002706139       0.999754113          0.002507425
                                     0.003070037                0.002707288        0.99972956          0.002508354
                                     0.003376201                0.002708553       0.999702559          0.002509375
                                     0.003712805                0.002709943       0.999672868          0.002510498
                                     0.004082858                0.002711472       0.999640218          0.002511733
0.004489659   0.002713154   0.999604317   0.002513091
0.004936829   0.002715004   0.999564842   0.002514584
 0.00542834   0.002717038   0.999521439   0.002516225
0.005968549   0.002719276   0.999473719    0.00251803
0.006562229   0.002721736   0.999421256   0.002520014
0.007214615   0.002724441   0.999363581   0.002522196
0.007931437   0.002727417    0.99930018   0.002524594
0.008718974   0.002730688   0.999230489   0.002527229
0.009584096   0.002734286   0.999153891   0.002530127
0.010534317   0.002738241   0.999069706   0.002533311
0.011577855   0.002742591   0.998977191    0.00253681
0.012723689   0.002747372   0.998875533   0.002540654
0.013981621   0.002752629   0.998763838   0.002544879
0.015362349   0.002758409   0.998641131    0.00254952
0.016877532   0.002764762   0.998506342   0.002554617
0.018539872   0.002771745   0.998358303   0.002560216
0.020363188   0.002779421   0.998195737   0.002566365
0.022362498   0.002787857   0.998017246   0.002573115
0.024554105   0.002797128   0.997821308   0.002580526
 0.02695568   0.002807315   0.997606261   0.002588659
 0.02958635   0.002818508   0.997370294   0.002597583
0.032466778   0.002830805   0.997111433   0.002607373
0.035619249   0.002844313   0.996827536    0.00261811
0.039067743    0.00285915    0.99651627   0.002629882
0.042838007   0.002875442   0.996175107   0.002642784
0.046957607   0.002893332   0.995801308   0.002656921
0.051455974   0.002912971   0.995391909   0.002672403
0.056364426   0.002934527   0.994943708   0.002689353
0.061716161   0.002958181   0.994453255   0.002707901
0.067546228   0.002984133   0.993916839   0.002728187
0.073891449   0.003012598   0.993330477   0.002750361
0.080790302    0.00304381   0.992689907   0.002774585
0.088282743   0.003078026   0.991990581    0.00280103
0.096409972   0.003115522   0.991227659    0.00282988
 0.10521411   0.003156597   0.990396014   0.002861327
0.114737804   0.003201576   0.989490234   0.002895578
0.125023732    0.00325081   0.988504633   0.002932846
0.136114001   0.003304676   0.987433267   0.002973356
0.148049436    0.00336358   0.986269961   0.003017342
0.160868745    0.00342796    0.98500834   0.003065043
0.174607572   0.003498283   0.983641877   0.003116707
0.189297424   0.003575048   0.982163946   0.003172583
0.204964483   0.003658786    0.98056789   0.003232924
0.221628334   0.003750061   0.978847106   0.003297977
0.239300609    0.00384947   0.976995139   0.003367987
0.257983595   0.003957637   0.975005794   0.003443187
0.277668849   0.004075219   0.972873263   0.003523796
0.298335863   0.004202897   0.970592264   0.003610012
0.319950867   0.004341371   0.968158198   0.003702009
0.342465811   0.004491359   0.965567307   0.003799928
0.365817635   0.004653587    0.96281685   0.003903871
0.389927892   0.004828779   0.959905271   0.004013896
0.414702799   0.005017646   0.956832375   0.004130009
0.440033793   0.005220871   0.953599487   0.004252159
0.465798631   0.005439094   0.950209598   0.004380231
0.491863059   0.005672893   0.946667488   0.004514043
0.518083046   0.005922761   0.942979815   0.004653343
0.544307532   0.006189086   0.939155169   0.004797805
0.570381619   0.006472123   0.935204072    0.00494703
0.596150064   0.006771974   0.931138936   0.005100548
 0.62146095    0.00708856   0.926973961   0.005257821
0.646169341   0.007421601   0.922724977   0.005418251
0.670140751   0.007770597   0.918409232   0.005581187
0.693254248   0.008134816   0.914045136   0.005745931
0.715405028   0.008513284   0.909651951   0.005911757
 0.73650636   0.008904789   0.905249466   0.006077917
0.756490785   0.009307884   0.900857633   0.006243659
0.775310587    0.00972091   0.896496216   0.006408236
0.792937511   0.010142019    0.89218443   0.006570924
0.809361832   0.010569207   0.887940615   0.006731033
0.824590858   0.011000355    0.88378193   0.006887914
0.838647005   0.011433271   0.879724102   0.007040977
0.851565577    0.01186574   0.875781213    0.00718969
0.863392402   0.012295569   0.871965548   0.007333592
0.874181452   0.012720634   0.868287502   0.007472292
0.883992544   0.013138918   0.864755531   0.007605473
0.892889228   0.013548554   0.861376164   0.007732889
0.900936906   0.013947848   0.858154055   0.007854367
0.908201229   0.014335305    0.85509208     0.0079698
0.914746779   0.014709645   0.852191456   0.008079142
0.920636028   0.015069806   0.849451888   0.008182406
0.925928564   0.015414949   0.846871736   0.008279656
0.930680556   0.015744453   0.844448184   0.008370998
0.934944408   0.016057899   0.842177413   0.008456577
0.938768599   0.016355064    0.84005477   0.008536569
0.942197644   0.016635896   0.838074934   0.008611177
0.945272164     0.0169005   0.836232067    0.00868062
0.948029034   0.017149117   0.834519952   0.008745133
0.950501577   0.017382103    0.83293212   0.008804961
0.952719801   0.017599909   0.831461963   0.008860353
0.954710643   0.017803063   0.830102822   0.008911561
0.956498228   0.017992152   0.828848076   0.008958833
0.958104122   0.018167808   0.827691207   0.009002418
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0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
0.973   0.020146436   0.8152   0.009472942
This is used to calculate 'apparent' clinical failure rates




                                             Intermediate calculations
                      all-cause mortaility       y_d    y_si        y_mi        w
                             0.015208395      0.001003 0.001003 7.95E-05         0.199557
                             0.015209957      0.001003 0.001003 7.95E-05         0.199613
                             0.015211675      0.001003 0.001003 7.96E-05         0.199674
                             0.015213564      0.001004 0.001004 7.97E-05         0.199741
                             0.015215642      0.001004 0.001004 7.98E-05         0.199815
                             0.015217928      0.001005 0.001005 7.99E-05         0.199897
                             0.015220441      0.001005 0.001005         8E-05    0.199986
                             0.015223205      0.001005 0.001005 8.01E-05         0.200085
0.015226245   0.001006   0.001006   8.02E-05   0.200193
0.015229588   0.001007   0.001007   8.04E-05   0.200312
0.015233264   0.001007   0.001007   8.05E-05   0.200443
0.015237306   0.001008   0.001008   8.07E-05   0.200587
 0.01524175   0.001009   0.001009   8.09E-05   0.200745
0.015246637    0.00101    0.00101   8.11E-05   0.200919
 0.01525201   0.001011   0.001011   8.13E-05    0.20111
0.015257918   0.001012   0.001012   8.16E-05    0.20132
0.015264412   0.001013   0.001013   8.19E-05   0.201551
0.015271552   0.001014   0.001014   8.22E-05   0.201805
  0.0152794   0.001015   0.001015   8.25E-05   0.202084
0.015288027   0.001017   0.001017   8.29E-05    0.20239
0.015297508   0.001019   0.001019   8.33E-05   0.202727
0.015307928   0.001021   0.001021   8.38E-05   0.203097
0.015319379   0.001023   0.001023   8.43E-05   0.203504
0.015331962   0.001025   0.001025   8.48E-05    0.20395
0.015345786   0.001027   0.001027   8.54E-05    0.20444
0.015360972    0.00103    0.00103   8.61E-05   0.204978
0.015377654   0.001033   0.001033   8.69E-05   0.205569
0.015395974   0.001036   0.001036   8.77E-05   0.206217
0.015416091    0.00104    0.00104   8.86E-05   0.206929
0.015438178   0.001044   0.001044   8.96E-05   0.207709
0.015462423   0.001048   0.001048   9.07E-05   0.208565
0.015489031   0.001053   0.001053    9.2E-05   0.209504
0.015518226   0.001058   0.001058   9.33E-05   0.210533
0.015550252   0.001064   0.001064   9.48E-05    0.21166
0.015585374    0.00107    0.00107   9.65E-05   0.212894
 0.01562388   0.001077   0.001077   9.83E-05   0.214245
0.015666082   0.001084   0.001084     0.0001   0.215724
 0.01571232   0.001092   0.001092   0.000103   0.217342
0.015762959   0.001101   0.001101   0.000105    0.21911
0.015818395   0.001111   0.001111   0.000108   0.221041
0.015879056   0.001121   0.001121   0.000111    0.22315
0.015945401   0.001133   0.001133   0.000115    0.22545
0.016017924   0.001146   0.001146   0.000118   0.227957
0.016097154   0.001159   0.001159   0.000123   0.230689
0.016183656   0.001174   0.001174   0.000128    0.23366
0.016278032    0.00119    0.00119   0.000133   0.236891
0.016380922   0.001208   0.001208   0.000139   0.240398
0.016493003   0.001227   0.001227   0.000146   0.244202
 0.01661499   0.001248   0.001248   0.000153   0.248322
0.016747631    0.00127    0.00127   0.000162   0.252778
 0.01689171   0.001294   0.001294   0.000171   0.257591
0.017048038    0.00132    0.00132   0.000181   0.262779
0.017217457   0.001349   0.001349   0.000193   0.268363
0.017400824   0.001379   0.001379   0.000207   0.274361
0.017599015   0.001411   0.001411   0.000221   0.280791
0.017812909   0.001446   0.001446   0.000238   0.287669
 0.01804338   0.001482   0.001482   0.000257   0.295008
0.018291287   0.001522   0.001522   0.000278    0.30282
0.018557458   0.001563   0.001563   0.000301   0.311113
0.018842675   0.001607   0.001607   0.000327   0.319892
0.019147655   0.001654   0.001654   0.000357   0.329157
 0.01947303   0.001703   0.001703   0.000389   0.338905
0.019819325   0.001754   0.001754   0.000426   0.349126
0.020186936   0.001808   0.001808   0.000466   0.359806
0.020576105   0.001864   0.001864    0.00051   0.370924
0.020986891   0.001922   0.001922   0.000559   0.382456
0.021419153   0.001982   0.001982   0.000613    0.39437
0.021872522   0.002043   0.002043   0.000672   0.406627
0.022346381   0.002106   0.002106   0.000737   0.419185
0.022839852   0.002171   0.002171   0.000806   0.431996
0.023351784   0.002236   0.002236   0.000881   0.445009
0.023880747   0.002302   0.002302   0.000962   0.458167
0.024425041   0.002369   0.002369   0.001048   0.471413
0.024982706   0.002436   0.002436   0.001139   0.484687
0.025551542   0.002502   0.002502   0.001235   0.497929
0.026129146   0.002568   0.002568   0.001335    0.51108
0.026712943   0.002634   0.002634   0.001439    0.52408
 0.02730024   0.002698   0.002698   0.001547   0.536876
0.027888269   0.002761   0.002761   0.001658   0.549415
0.028474248   0.002822   0.002822   0.001772    0.56165
 0.02905543   0.002882   0.002882   0.001887   0.573538
0.029629161    0.00294    0.00294   0.002002   0.585043
0.030192926   0.002996   0.002996   0.002119   0.596133
0.030744391   0.003049   0.003049   0.002234   0.606783
0.031281443     0.0031     0.0031   0.002349   0.616972
0.031802215   0.003149   0.003149   0.002461   0.626687
0.032305105   0.003196   0.003196   0.002572   0.635919
0.032788787    0.00324    0.00324   0.002679   0.644665
0.033252212   0.003281   0.003281   0.002783   0.652925
0.033694605    0.00332    0.00332   0.002884   0.660705
0.034115451   0.003357   0.003357   0.002981   0.668012
0.034514476   0.003391   0.003391   0.003074   0.674859
0.034891633   0.003423   0.003423   0.003162   0.681259
0.035247072   0.003453   0.003453   0.003246   0.687229
 0.03558112   0.003481   0.003481   0.003325   0.692785
 0.03589425   0.003507   0.003507     0.0034   0.697947
0.036187064   0.003531   0.003531    0.00347   0.702735
0.036460262   0.003554   0.003554   0.003536   0.707168
0.036714624   0.003574   0.003574   0.003598   0.711266
0.036950986   0.003593   0.003593   0.003656   0.715049
0.037170225   0.003611   0.003611    0.00371   0.718537
0.037373243   0.003627   0.003627    0.00376   0.721749
0.037560948   0.003642   0.003642   0.003806   0.724704
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0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
0.039619378   0.0038   0.0038   0.004324   0.7562
              1

                       parasitological failure

                       allele frequency
            0.75
                       true clinical failure
Frequency




                       apparent clinical failure

                       perceived efficacy
             0.5



            0.25



              0
                   0         20                  40       60    80   100
                                                 Time (years)
                              5.0%

                                         all-cause mortaility
Mortaility (per child/year)



                              4.0%       indirect malaria mortality

                                         direct malaria mortality

                              3.0%


                              2.0%


                              1.0%


                              0.0%
                                     0     20                   40       60    80   100
                                                                Time (years)
      0.00001 initial frequency of resistance
           0.1 selective advantage of resistance e.g. 0.2 is a 20% advantage etc
             5 no. of malaria generations per year

the column 'prob 2' below is the probability that a person has 2 consecutive resistant infections
the column 'prob 3' below is the probability that a person has 3 consecutive resistant infections
prob 4 etc

'clear both clones' is the probality that a person still has the infection after treatment if he/she has two clones (which is one min
'clear 3 clones' is as above but for three clones

generation        time (years)allele freq prob 2     prob 3          prob 4         prob 5          clear both clones
              0             0    0.00001     1E-10           1E-15          1E-20           1E-25     1.99999E-05
              1           0.2     1.1E-05 1.2E-10        1.331E-15    1.46409E-20      1.6105E-25     2.19999E-05
              2           0.4 1.21E-05 1.5E-10        1.77155E-15     2.14357E-20     2.59372E-25     2.41998E-05
              3           0.6 1.33E-05 1.8E-10        2.35792E-15     3.13839E-20     4.17718E-25     2.66197E-05
              4           0.8 1.46E-05 2.1E-10        3.13838E-15     4.59489E-20     6.72734E-25     2.92816E-05
              5             1 1.61E-05 2.6E-10        4.17717E-15     6.72734E-20     1.08344E-24     3.22097E-05
              6           1.2 1.77E-05 3.1E-10        5.55979E-15     9.84943E-20     1.74487E-24     3.54306E-05
              7           1.4 1.95E-05 3.8E-10        7.40004E-15     1.44204E-19     2.81011E-24     3.89736E-05
              8           1.6 2.14E-05 4.6E-10        9.84939E-15     2.11128E-19     4.52567E-24     4.28708E-05
              9           1.8 2.36E-05 5.6E-10        1.31095E-14      3.0911E-19     7.28855E-24     4.71578E-05
             10             2 2.59E-05 6.7E-10        1.74486E-14     4.52564E-19     1.17381E-23     5.18733E-05
             11           2.2 2.85E-05 8.1E-10        2.32239E-14     6.62592E-19     1.89042E-23     5.70605E-05
             12           2.4 3.14E-05 9.8E-10        3.09107E-14     9.70089E-19     3.04449E-23     6.27662E-05
             13           2.6 3.45E-05 1.2E-09        4.11418E-14     1.42029E-18     4.90311E-23     6.90425E-05
             14           2.8     3.8E-05 1.4E-09     5.47591E-14     2.07942E-18     7.89637E-23     7.59464E-05
             15             3 4.18E-05 1.7E-09        7.28835E-14     3.04443E-18     1.27169E-22     8.35406E-05
             16           3.2 4.59E-05 2.1E-09        9.70068E-14     4.45727E-18     2.04803E-22      9.1894E-05
             17           3.4 5.05E-05 2.6E-09        1.29114E-13     6.52578E-18      3.2983E-22     0.000101083
             18           3.6 5.56E-05 3.1E-09        1.71848E-13      9.5542E-18     5.31181E-22      0.00011119
             19           3.8 6.12E-05 3.7E-09        2.28726E-13      1.3988E-17     8.55449E-22     0.000122308
             20             4 6.73E-05 4.5E-09        3.04429E-13     2.04793E-17     1.37767E-21     0.000134538
             21           4.2     7.4E-05 5.5E-09     4.05187E-13      2.9983E-17     2.21867E-21      0.00014799
             22           4.4 8.14E-05 6.6E-09        5.39292E-13     4.38967E-17     3.57306E-21     0.000162787
             23           4.6 8.95E-05       8E-09     7.1778E-13     6.42671E-17     5.75421E-21     0.000179064
             24           4.8 9.85E-05 9.7E-09         9.5534E-13     9.40901E-17     9.26681E-21     0.000196968
             25             5 0.000108 1.2E-08        1.27152E-12     1.37752E-16     1.49235E-20     0.000216661
             26           5.2 0.000119 1.4E-08        1.69234E-12     2.01674E-16     2.40332E-20     0.000238323
             27           5.4 0.000131 1.7E-08        2.25242E-12     2.95257E-16     3.87034E-20     0.000262151
             28           5.6 0.000144 2.1E-08        2.99786E-12     4.32263E-16     6.23282E-20      0.00028836
             29           5.8 0.000159 2.5E-08        3.98997E-12     6.32839E-16     1.00373E-19      0.00031719
             30             6 0.000174       3E-08     5.3104E-12     9.26481E-16     1.61639E-19        0.0003489
             31           6.2 0.000192 3.7E-08        7.06777E-12     1.35637E-15     2.60298E-19      0.00038378
             32           6.4 0.000211 4.5E-08        9.40667E-12      1.9857E-15     4.19173E-19     0.000422146
             33           6.6 0.000232 5.4E-08        1.25195E-11     2.90702E-15      6.7501E-19     0.000464346
             34           6.8 0.000255 6.5E-08        1.66623E-11     4.25578E-15     1.08698E-18     0.000510763
             35             7 0.000281 7.9E-08        2.21758E-11     6.23025E-15     1.75038E-18     0.000561818
             36           7.2 0.000309 9.6E-08        2.95135E-11     9.12068E-15      2.8186E-18     0.000617973
             37           7.4    0.00034 1.2E-07      3.92788E-11     1.33519E-14     4.53869E-18     0.000679739
38    7.6   0.000374   1.4E-07   5.22747E-11   1.95459E-14    7.30836E-18   0.000747675
39    7.8   0.000411   1.7E-07   6.95699E-11   2.86129E-14     1.1768E-17   0.000822396
40      8   0.000452     2E-07   9.25861E-11   4.18852E-14    1.89486E-17    0.00090458
41    8.2   0.000498   2.5E-07   1.23215E-10   6.13131E-14    3.05099E-17    0.00099497
42    8.4   0.000547     3E-07   1.63975E-10   8.97506E-14    4.91243E-17   0.001094386
43    8.6   0.000602   3.6E-07   2.18215E-10   1.31375E-13    7.90936E-17   0.001203726
44    8.8   0.000662   4.4E-07   2.90392E-10      1.923E-13   1.27343E-16   0.001323979
45      9   0.000728   5.3E-07   3.86435E-10   2.81472E-13    2.05019E-16   0.001456232
46    9.2   0.000801   6.4E-07   5.14232E-10   4.11983E-13    3.30065E-16    0.00160168
47    9.4   0.000881   7.8E-07   6.84279E-10   6.02991E-13    5.31359E-16   0.001761636
48    9.6   0.000969   9.4E-07   9.10534E-10   8.82528E-13    8.55383E-16   0.001937544
49    9.8   0.001066   1.1E-06   1.21157E-09   1.29161E-12    1.37693E-15   0.002130989
50     10   0.001173   1.4E-06   1.61208E-09   1.89024E-12    2.21639E-15   0.002343713
51   10.2    0.00129   1.7E-06   2.14493E-09    2.7662E-12    3.56742E-15   0.002577631
52   10.4   0.001418     2E-06   2.85379E-09    4.0479E-12    5.74166E-15   0.002834846
53   10.6    0.00156   2.4E-06   3.79678E-09   5.92317E-12    9.24045E-15   0.003117667
54   10.8   0.001716   2.9E-06   5.05115E-09   8.66671E-12    1.48702E-14   0.003428631
55     11   0.001887   3.6E-06   6.71963E-09   1.26802E-11    2.39281E-14   0.003770524
56   11.2   0.002075   4.3E-06   8.93876E-09   1.85511E-11    3.85001E-14   0.004146404
57   11.4   0.002282   5.2E-06   1.18901E-08   2.71381E-11    6.19406E-14   0.004559625
58   11.6    0.00251   6.3E-06   1.58149E-08   3.96967E-11    9.96421E-14   0.005013871
59   11.8    0.00276   7.6E-06   2.10338E-08   5.80616E-11    1.60273E-13   0.005513184
60     12   0.003036   9.2E-06   2.79728E-08   8.49142E-11    2.57766E-13   0.006061993
61   12.2   0.003338   1.1E-05   3.71979E-08   1.24172E-10    4.14505E-13   0.006665159
62   12.4   0.003671   1.3E-05   4.94608E-08   1.81558E-10    6.66451E-13   0.007328007
63   12.6   0.004036   1.6E-05   6.57599E-08   2.65429E-10    1.07136E-12   0.008056374
64   12.8   0.004438     2E-05   8.74205E-08   3.87987E-10    1.72196E-12   0.008856653
65     13    0.00488   2.4E-05   1.16202E-07   5.67045E-10    2.76708E-12   0.009735841
66   13.2   0.005365   2.9E-05   1.54439E-07   8.28592E-10    4.44556E-12   0.010701597
67   13.4   0.005899   3.5E-05   2.05227E-07   1.21054E-09    7.14044E-12   0.011762299
68   13.6   0.006485   4.2E-05   2.72675E-07   1.76818E-09    1.14659E-11   0.012927101
69   13.8   0.007128   5.1E-05   3.62225E-07   2.58209E-09    1.84062E-11   0.014206007
70     14   0.007836   6.1E-05   4.81092E-07   3.76967E-09    2.95379E-11   0.015609934
71   14.2   0.008612   7.4E-05    6.3883E-07   5.50191E-09    4.73851E-11   0.017150793
72   14.4   0.009466     9E-05    8.4809E-07   8.02766E-09    7.59865E-11   0.018841563
73   14.6   0.010402   0.00011   1.12561E-06   1.17089E-08    1.21799E-10   0.020696376
74   14.8   0.011431   0.00013   1.49352E-06   1.70719E-08    1.95142E-10   0.022730602
75     15   0.012559   0.00016   1.98107E-06   2.48809E-08    3.12488E-10   0.024960938
76   15.2   0.013798   0.00019    2.6269E-06   3.62458E-08    5.00117E-10   0.027405501
77   15.4   0.015157   0.00023   3.48197E-06   5.27755E-08     7.9991E-10   0.030083917
78   15.6   0.016647   0.00028   4.61349E-06    7.6802E-08    1.27854E-09   0.033017415
79   15.8   0.018282   0.00033   6.10999E-06      1.117E-07   2.04205E-09   0.036228918
80     16   0.020073    0.0004   8.08795E-06    1.6235E-07    3.25885E-09   0.039743127
81   16.2   0.022036   0.00049   1.07005E-05   2.35797E-07    5.19605E-09   0.043586604
82   16.4   0.024186   0.00058   1.41486E-05   3.42204E-07    8.27669E-09   0.047787835
83   16.6   0.026541    0.0007   1.86958E-05   4.96203E-07    1.31697E-08   0.052377297
84   16.8   0.029118   0.00085   2.46871E-05    7.1883E-07    2.09306E-08   0.057387485
85     17   0.031936   0.00102   3.25731E-05   1.04027E-06    3.32225E-08   0.062852937
86   17.2   0.035018   0.00123   4.29421E-05   1.50376E-06    5.26589E-08   0.068810211
87   17.4   0.038386   0.00147   5.65596E-05   2.17108E-06    8.33383E-08    0.07529784
88   17.6   0.042063   0.00177   7.44206E-05   3.13033E-06     1.3167E-07   0.082356231
89   17.8   0.046075   0.00212   9.78143E-05   4.50682E-06    2.07653E-07   0.090027521
 90     18    0.05045    0.00255    0.000128408   6.47821E-06   3.26827E-07   0.098355358
 91   18.2   0.055217    0.00305     0.00016835   9.29573E-06    5.1328E-07   0.107384619
 92   18.4   0.060405    0.00365    0.000220402   1.33134E-05   8.04194E-07   0.117161036
 93   18.6   0.066046    0.00436    0.000288103   1.90282E-05   1.25674E-06   0.127730729
 94   18.8   0.072174    0.00521    0.000375967   2.71352E-05   1.95846E-06   0.139139632
 95     19   0.078823    0.00621    0.000489731    3.8602E-05   3.04273E-06   0.151432799
 96   19.2   0.086027     0.0074    0.000636658   5.47699E-05   4.71169E-06   0.164653589
 97   19.4   0.093823     0.0088    0.000825893   7.74875E-05   7.27009E-06   0.178842721
 98   19.6   0.102246    0.01045    0.001068895    0.00010929   1.11744E-05    0.19403719
 99   19.8   0.111332    0.01239    0.001379937   0.000153631    1.7104E-05   0.210269066
100     20   0.121117    0.01467    0.001776692   0.000215187   2.60628E-05   0.227564163
101   20.2   0.131634    0.01733    0.002280893   0.000300243   3.95222E-05   0.245940616
102   20.4   0.142916    0.02043     0.00291907   0.000417182   5.96221E-05   0.265407387
103   20.6   0.154993    0.02402    0.003723352   0.000577092   8.94451E-05    0.28596273
104   20.8    0.16789    0.02819    0.004732311   0.000794507    0.00013339   0.307592686
105     21   0.181629    0.03299    0.005991821   0.001088291   0.000197666   0.330269648
106   21.2   0.196228    0.03851    0.007555879   0.001482677   0.000290943   0.353951077
107   21.4   0.211697    0.04482    0.009487339   0.002008442   0.000425181   0.378578459
108   21.6   0.228039       0.052   0.011858471   0.002704197   0.000616663   0.404076573
109   21.8    0.24525    0.06015    0.014751277   0.003617758   0.000887257   0.430353165
110     22   0.263318    0.06934    0.018257442   0.004807507   0.001265901   0.457299118
111   22.2   0.282218    0.07965    0.022477845   0.006343655   0.001790294   0.484789167
112   22.4   0.301919    0.09116    0.027521512   0.008309273   0.002508729   0.512683225
113   22.6   0.322378    0.10393    0.033503943   0.010800932   0.003481982   0.540828334
114   22.8   0.343541    0.11802    0.040544757   0.013928776   0.004785102   0.569061228
115     23   0.365344    0.13348    0.048764646   0.017815859   0.006508913   0.597211455
116   23.2   0.387713    0.15032    0.058281672   0.022596578   0.008760993   0.625104962
117   23.4   0.410566    0.16856    0.069207028    0.02841408   0.011665866   0.652568025
118   23.6   0.433812    0.18819     0.08164041   0.035416603   0.015364153   0.679431335
119   23.8   0.457353    0.20917    0.095665246   0.043752773   0.020010456   0.705534079
120     24   0.481086    0.23144    0.111344036   0.053566008   0.025769833   0.730727802
121   24.2   0.504904    0.25493    0.128714127   0.064988267    0.03281283   0.754879867
122   24.4      0.5287   0.27952    0.147784205   0.078133514   0.041309192   0.777876343
123   24.6   0.552366    0.30511    0.168531783   0.093091298   0.051420508   0.799624182
124   24.8   0.575798    0.33154    0.190901913   0.109920925    0.06329224   0.820052597
125     25   0.598894    0.35867    0.214807235   0.128646667   0.077045659   0.839113615
126   25.2   0.621558    0.38633    0.240129419   0.149254406   0.092770297   0.856781793
127   25.4   0.643704    0.41435    0.266721931   0.171689988   0.110517541   0.873053197
128   25.6   0.665252    0.44256    0.294413968   0.195859458   0.130295881   0.887943723
129   25.8   0.686132    0.47078    0.323015314   0.221631158    0.15206824   0.901486908
130     26   0.706285    0.49884    0.352321834   0.248839552    0.17575159   0.913731375
131   26.2   0.725661    0.52658    0.382121294   0.277290497   0.201218882    0.92473808
132   26.4   0.744222    0.55387    0.412199161   0.306767588   0.228303116   0.934577495
133   26.6   0.761939    0.58055    0.442344129   0.337039154   0.256803208   0.943326865
134   26.8   0.778793    0.60652    0.472353099   0.367865471   0.286491197   0.951067635
135     27   0.794776    0.63167    0.502035447    0.39900577   0.317120247   0.957883147
136   27.2   0.809886    0.65592    0.531216459   0.430224722   0.348432939   0.963856631
137   27.4   0.824129    0.67919    0.559739876   0.461298097   0.380169331   0.969069538
138   27.6    0.83752    0.70144    0.587469568   0.492017442    0.41207439   0.973600211
139   27.8   0.850076    0.72263    0.614290372    0.52219368   0.443904466   0.977522881
140     28   0.861822    0.74274    0.640108197   0.551659606   0.475432625   0.980906961
141   28.2   0.872786    0.76176    0.664849501   0.580271352   0.506452725   0.983816604
142   28.4   0.882998    0.77969   0.688460264   0.607908906   0.536782232   0.986310488
143   28.6   0.892491    0.79654   0.710904575   0.634475825   0.566263865   0.988441782
144   28.8      0.9013   0.81234    0.73216296   0.659898294   0.594766168   0.990258261
145     29    0.90946    0.82712   0.752230546   0.684123675   0.622183192   0.991802528
146   29.2   0.917008     0.8409   0.771115166   0.707118706   0.648433446   0.993112313
147   29.4   0.923979    0.85374    0.78883546   0.728867469   0.673458298   0.994220821
148   29.6   0.930409    0.86566   0.805419056   0.749369249   0.697219996   0.995157112
149   29.8   0.936333    0.87672   0.820900841   0.768636377   0.719699445   0.995946487
150     30   0.941784    0.88696   0.835321393    0.78669213    0.74089388    0.99661087
wo clones (which is one minus the probaility that they are both sensitive)


             clear 3 clones    clear 4 clones
                 2.99997E-05        4E-05
                 3.29996E-05      4.4E-05
                 3.62995E-05     4.84E-05
                 3.99293E-05     5.32E-05
                 4.39222E-05     5.86E-05
                 4.83142E-05     6.44E-05
                 5.31455E-05     7.09E-05
                 5.84598E-05     7.79E-05
                 6.43056E-05     8.57E-05
                 7.07358E-05     9.43E-05
                  7.7809E-05    0.000104
                 8.55895E-05    0.000114
                 9.41479E-05    0.000126
                0.000103562     0.000138
                0.000113917     0.000152
                0.000125308     0.000167
                0.000137838     0.000184
                  0.00015162    0.000202
                0.000166781     0.000222
                0.000183457     0.000245
                   0.0002018    0.000269
                0.000221977     0.000296
                0.000244171     0.000326
                0.000268584     0.000358
                0.000295437     0.000394
                0.000324974     0.000433
                0.000357464     0.000477
                0.000393201     0.000524
                0.000432509     0.000577
                0.000475747     0.000634
                0.000523305     0.000698
                0.000575615     0.000767
                0.000633152     0.000844
                0.000696438     0.000928
                0.000766046     0.001021
                0.000842608     0.001123
                0.000926817     0.001236
                0.001019435     0.001359
0.001121303   0.001495
0.001233341   0.001644
0.001356563   0.001808
0.001492084   0.001989
 0.00164113   0.002188
0.001805045   0.002406
 0.00198531   0.002646
0.002183552    0.00291
0.002401558   0.003201
 0.00264129    0.00352
0.002904908   0.003871
0.003194779   0.004257
0.003513508   0.004682
0.003863953   0.005149
0.004249253   0.005662
0.004672853   0.006226
0.005138536   0.006846
0.005650452   0.007527
0.006213154   0.008276
0.006831635   0.009098
0.007511372   0.010003
0.008258367   0.010996
0.009079195   0.012087
 0.00998106   0.013286
0.010971849   0.014602
0.012060189   0.016048
 0.01325552   0.017635
0.014568159   0.019377
0.016009373   0.021289
0.017591464   0.023386
 0.01932785   0.025687
0.021233151    0.02821
0.023323286   0.030976
0.025615567   0.034007
0.028128797   0.037328
0.030883379   0.040964
0.033901408   0.044945
0.037206783   0.049299
0.040825304    0.05406
0.044784763   0.059263
0.049115039   0.064945
0.053848164   0.071145
 0.05901839   0.077907
0.064662221   0.085273
0.070818428   0.093292
0.077528015   0.102011
0.084834158   0.111482
0.092782075   0.121755
0.101418843   0.132886
0.110793132   0.144926
0.120954855    0.15793
0.131954706    0.17195
0.143843596   0.187037
0.156671943   0.203238
 0.17048883   0.220595
0.185341001   0.239146
0.201271702   0.258919
0.218319349   0.279934
0.236516042   0.302196
0.255885923   0.325701
 0.27644341   0.350424
0.298191337   0.376325
 0.32111905   0.403343
0.345200524   0.431394
0.370392583   0.460374
0.396633323   0.490151
0.423840841   0.520572
0.451912406   0.551461
0.480724168   0.582621
0.510131566   0.613835
0.539970493   0.644875
0.570059326   0.675502
 0.60020184   0.705476
0.630190998   0.734558
0.659813526   0.762522
0.688855147   0.789161
0.717106249   0.814292
0.744367736   0.837761
0.770456744   0.859454
0.795211918   0.879291
0.818497921   0.897236
0.840208909    0.91329
0.860270768   0.927492
0.878641982   0.939916
0.895313128   0.950661
0.910305056    0.95985
0.923665938   0.967619
0.935467433   0.974116
0.945800242   0.979489
0.954769368   0.983885
0.962489377   0.987443
0.969079897   0.990295
0.974661592   0.992558
0.979352715   0.994336
0.983266347    0.99572
0.986508325   0.996788
0.989175837   0.997606
0.991356615   0.998226
0.993128636   0.998694
0.994560242   0.999043
0.995710559   0.999303
0.996630147   0.999495
 0.99736177   0.999635
0.997941246   0.999738
0.998398297   0.999813
0.998757386   0.999866
0.999038488   0.999905
0.999257802   0.999933
0.999428376   0.999953
0.999560662   0.999967
0.999662979   0.999977
0.999741924   0.999984
0.999802698   0.999989
                             1


                                              frequency of resistance or clinical failure rate
                                                  mortality rate (2 consecutive resistant clones)
                                              mortality rate (3 consecutive resistant clones)
                                              mortality rate (4 consecutive resistant clones)
                           0.75               mortality rate (5 consecutive resistant clones)
                                              parasitological resistnce (2 clones)
                                              parasitological resistance (3 clones)
                                              parasitological resistance (4 clones)"
Frequency or probability




                            0.5




                           0.25




                             0
                                  0   2   4   6          8       10       12       14      16       18   20   22   24   26   28   30
                                                                                  Time (years)
     0.00001 initial frequency of resistance
          0.1 selective advantage of resistance e.g. 0.2 is a 20% advantage etc
            5 no. of malaria generations per year

         0.33 proportion of antimalarial treatments used against real malaria infections
          0.5 probability that a treatment failure will recrudesce and be perceived as a failure




generation        time (years)     true clinical resistance perceived resistance
              0                0                      0.00001            0.00000165
              1              0.2                      1.1E-05              1.815E-06
              2              0.4                     1.21E-05            1.9965E-06
              3              0.6                    1.331E-05           2.19614E-06
              4              0.8                 1.46409E-05            2.41575E-06
              5                1                  1.6105E-05            2.65733E-06
              6              1.2                 1.77155E-05            2.92305E-06
              7              1.4                  1.9487E-05            3.21535E-06
              8              1.6                 2.14356E-05            3.53688E-06
              9              1.8                 2.35792E-05            3.89056E-06
             10                2                  2.5937E-05            4.27961E-06
             11              2.2                 2.85306E-05            4.70756E-06
             12              2.4                 3.13836E-05             5.1783E-06
             13              2.6                 3.45219E-05            5.69611E-06
             14              2.8                 3.79739E-05             6.2657E-06
             15                3                 4.17712E-05            6.89224E-06
             16              3.2                 4.59481E-05            7.58143E-06
             17              3.4                 5.05427E-05            8.33954E-06
             18              3.6                 5.55966E-05            9.17345E-06
             19              3.8                  6.1156E-05            1.00907E-05
             20                4                 6.72711E-05            1.10997E-05
             21              4.2                 7.39978E-05            1.22096E-05
             22              4.4                 8.13969E-05            1.34305E-05
             23              4.6                 8.95359E-05            1.47734E-05
             24              4.8                 9.84886E-05            1.62506E-05
             25                5                0.000108336             1.78755E-05
             26              5.2                0.000119169             1.96628E-05
             27              5.4                0.000131084             2.16289E-05
             28              5.6                0.000144191             2.37914E-05
             29              5.8                0.000158607             2.61702E-05
             30                6                0.000174465             2.87868E-05
             31              6.2                0.000191909             3.16649E-05
             32              6.4                0.000211095             3.48307E-05
             33              6.6                   0.0002322             3.8313E-05
             34              6.8                0.000255414             4.21433E-05
             35                7                0.000280948             4.63565E-05
             36              7.2                0.000309034             5.09907E-05
             37              7.4                0.000339927              5.6088E-05
38    7.6   0.000373907   6.16947E-05
39    7.8   0.000411283   6.78616E-05
40      8   0.000452392   7.46447E-05
41    8.2   0.000497609   8.21055E-05
42    8.4   0.000547343   9.03115E-05
43    8.6   0.000602044   9.93373E-05
44    8.8   0.000662209   0.000109264
45      9   0.000728381   0.000120183
46    9.2   0.000801161   0.000132192
47    9.4   0.000881206   0.000145399
48    9.6   0.000969242   0.000159925
49    9.8   0.001066063      0.0001759
50     10   0.001172544    0.00019347
51   10.2   0.001289647   0.000212792
52   10.4   0.001418429   0.000234041
53   10.6    0.00156005   0.000257408
54   10.8   0.001715788   0.000283105
55     11   0.001887043   0.000311362
56   11.2   0.002075355   0.000342434
57   11.4   0.002282417   0.000376599
58   11.6   0.002510086   0.000414164
59   11.8   0.002760402   0.000455466
60     12   0.003035604   0.000500875
61   12.2   0.003338151   0.000550795
62   12.4   0.003670741   0.000605672
63   12.6   0.004036333   0.000665995
64   12.8   0.004438175   0.000732299
65     13   0.004879827   0.000805171
66   13.2   0.005365191   0.000885257
67   13.4   0.005898546    0.00097326
68   13.6   0.006484575   0.001069955
69   13.8   0.007128411   0.001176188
70     14   0.007835666   0.001292885
71   14.2   0.008612484    0.00142106
72   14.4    0.00946558   0.001561821
73   14.6   0.010402292   0.001716378
74   14.8   0.011430631   0.001886054
75     15   0.012559338   0.002072291
76   15.2   0.013797942    0.00227666
77   15.4   0.015156823   0.002500876
78   15.6   0.016647273      0.0027468
79   15.8   0.018281567   0.003016459
80     16   0.020073027   0.003312049
81   16.2   0.022036097   0.003635956
82   16.4   0.024186409   0.003990757
83   16.6   0.026540857   0.004379241
84   16.8   0.029117662   0.004804414
85     17   0.031936437   0.005269512
86   17.2   0.035018244    0.00577801
87   17.4   0.038385649   0.006333632
88   17.6   0.042062753   0.006940354
89   17.8   0.046075224   0.007602412
 90     18   0.050450295   0.008324299
 91   18.2   0.055216754   0.009110764
 92   18.4   0.060404894   0.009966807
 93   18.6    0.06604643   0.010897661
 94   18.8   0.072174387   0.011908774
 95     19   0.078822926   0.013005783
 96   19.2   0.086027128   0.014194476
 97   19.4   0.093822711   0.015480747
 98   19.6   0.102245685   0.016870538
 99   19.8   0.111331933   0.018369769
100     20    0.12111671   0.019984257
101   20.2   0.131634073   0.021719622
102   20.4   0.142916216   0.023581176
103   20.6    0.15499274   0.025573802
104   20.8   0.167889843   0.027701824
105     21   0.181629453    0.02996886
106   21.2   0.196228314   0.032377672
107   21.4    0.21169705   0.034930013
108   21.6   0.228039232   0.037626473
109   21.8   0.245250482    0.04046633
110     22   0.263317652   0.043447413
111   22.2   0.282218116   0.046565989
112   22.4    0.30191922   0.049816671
113   22.6   0.322377933   0.053192359
114   22.8   0.343540731   0.056684221
115     23   0.365343758    0.06028172
116   23.2   0.387713272    0.06397269
117   23.4   0.410566395   0.067743455
118   23.6   0.433812165   0.071579007
119   23.8   0.457352858   0.075463222
120     24   0.481085558   0.079379117
121   24.2   0.504903916   0.083309146
122   24.4   0.528700035   0.087235506
123   24.6   0.552366424    0.09114046
124   24.8   0.575797923   0.095006657
125     25   0.598893549   0.098817436
126   25.2   0.621558185   0.102557101
127   25.4   0.643704051   0.106211168
128   25.6   0.665251921   0.109766567
129   25.8   0.686132047   0.113211788
130     26   0.706284788    0.11653699
131   26.2   0.725660939   0.119734055
132   26.4   0.744221766   0.122796591
133   26.6   0.761938799   0.125719902
134   26.8   0.778793389   0.128500909
135     27   0.794776091   0.131138055
136   27.2   0.809885905   0.133631174
137   27.4   0.824129416   0.135981354
138   27.6    0.83751988    0.13819078
139   27.8   0.850076289   0.140262588
140     28   0.861822436   0.142200702
141   28.2   0.872786022   0.144009694
142   28.4    0.88299781   0.145694639
143   28.6   0.892490845   0.147260989
144   28.8   0.901299752   0.148714459
145     29    0.90946011   0.150060918
146   29.2   0.917007909   0.151306305
147   29.4   0.923979087   0.152456549
148   29.6   0.930409137   0.153517508
149   29.8   0.936332792   0.154494911
150     30   0.941783769   0.155394322
              1


                       true clinical resistance
            0.75       perceived resistance
frequency




             0.5



            0.25



              0
                   0      5          10        15         20   25   30
                                           Time (years)

				
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posted:3/15/2011
language:English
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