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TECHNICAL GUIDE

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TECHNICAL GUIDE Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                                                                    Weekly Investment Guide

                                                                                                                                                  PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH
 As of: 7/22/2010
                                                         COL      COL       Outstanding    Market Cap                    Sales                       Sales Growth                  Net Profit
Ticker            Company Name                Price     Rating     FV       Shares (Mil)    (PhpMil)       2008      2009    2010F      2011F     2009 2010F 2011F       2008     2009 2010F 2011F
Banks and Financials                                                          9,873.38     505,012.84                                              13%     6%      8%
BDO      BANCO DE ORO                         47.00     HOLD      39.00       2,607.44     122,549.59     42,359    52,110    55,741    59,670     23%     7%      7%    2,182    4,789   6,276   7,151
 BPI     BANK OF PHILIPPINE ISLANDS           47.00     HOLD      46.00       3,247.12     152,614.73     33,297    34,966    36,544    38,607      5%     5%      6%    6,423    8,550   9,065   9,973
CHIB     CHINA BANKING CORP                  412.50     HOLD     467.50        107.26       44,244.63     12,405    13,410    14,940    16,198      8%    11%      8%    2,915    4,100   4,115   4,656
MBT      METROPOLITAN BANK & TRUST            57.00      BUY      77.50       1,911.39     108,949.00     41,714    43,715    47,557    52,133      5%     9%     10%    4,408    6,029   7,594   9,834
                                         c
RCB      RIZAL COMMERCIAL BANKING CORP        21.00               19.25        940.12       19,742.58     15,660    22,450    16,685    18,423     43%    -26%    10%    2,154    3,328   3,089   3,537
SECB     SECURITY BANK CORP                   67.00      BUY      78.00        418.63       28,048.30      8,916     9,454    10,135    11,349      6%     7%     12%    2,310    3,062   3,445   3,768
                                   c
UBP      UNION BANK OF PHILIPPINES            45.00               48.00        641.42       28,864.01      8,703    12,363    13,404    14,596     42%     8%      9%    3,019    3,409   3,864   4,660
Commercial and Industrial                                                    73,549.29     823,128.20                                              28%     43%     5%
 ABS     ABS-CBN BROADCASTING CORP            37.50     HOLD      43.00        779.58      29,234.37      22,307    24,948    29,266    29,005     12%    17%     -1%    1,383    1,702    2,582 2,085
  AP     ABOITIZ POWER CORP                   19.00     HOLD      18.50       7,358.60     139,813.48     12,243    23,174    55,280    52,972    89%     139%    -4%    4,334    5,659   18,859 17,439
COAT     CHEMREZ TECHNOLOGIES c               2.36                            1,321.89      3,119.66       3,794     4,898                         29%                     481     589
DMC      DMCI HOLDINGS INC                    19.50      BUY      20.00       2,655.49     51,782.13      21,158    29,711    43,060    46,568     40%    45%      8%    1,688    4,683    6,003 7,236
 EEI     EEI CORPORATION                      3.80       BUY      4.50        1,036.28      3,937.87       9,190     6,716     6,335     7,040    -27%    -6%     11%      506     560      583   620
 EDC     PNOC ENERGY DEV CORP                 4.60       BUY      7.00       18,750.00     86,250.00      20,527    22,067    27,642    25,311      8%    25%     -8%    1,308    3,323    8,577 6,758
FGEN     FIRST GEN CORPORATION                9.70       BUY      16.25       3,357.50     32,567.75      82,754    48,760    50,002    50,784    -41%     3%      2%      644    2,024    4,784 5,152
GMA7     GMA NETWORK INC                      5.90      HOLD      6.80        3,361.05     19,830.18      12,497    13,771    15,802    14,820     10%    15%     -6%    2,369    2,818    3,427 2,754
 ICT     INTL CONTAINER TERM SVCS             32.50      BUY      28.00       1,935.81     62,913.76      20,597    20,169    22,236    24,279     -2%    10%      9%    2,859    2,377    3,060 3,692
MER      MANILA ELECTRIC COMPANY             185.00     HOLD     186.00       1,127.27     208,545.14     30,127    27,758    38,838    43,962     -8%    40%     13%    2,800    6,005   14,477 17,370
 MPI     METRO PACIFIC INVESTMENTS            2.60      HOLD      3.30       20,128.65     52,334.49       5,041    16,108    19,071    22,328    220%    18%     17%      526    2,300    4,707 6,509
MWC      MANILA WATER COMPANY                 17.00      BUY      22.50       2,005.81     34,098.70       8,914    10,080    11,304    13,143     13%    12%     16%     2,788   3,186    3,514 4,295
PCOR     PETRON CORP                          6.50      HOLD      6.10        9,375.10     60,938.18      267,676   188,726   198,939   201,579   -29%     5%      1%    -3,920   4,377    6,181 6,108
 SCC     SEMIRARA MINING c                   106.00              102.05        356.25      37,762.50       8,490    14,650    16,252    25,521     73%    11%     57%      796    1,671    2,667 8,231
Conglomerates                                                                16,935.05     638,458.29                                              32%     6%     14%
 AC      AYALA CORPORATION                   325.00      BUY     371.50        486.02      157,957.12     64,053    60,944    65,194    71,617     -5%     7%     10%     8,108    7,766 8,590 9,358
 AEV     ABOITIZ EQUITY VENTURES INC c        22.00               23.08       5,521.87     121,481.18     29,834    69,185    69,579    92,402    132%     1%     33%     4,226   15,183 14,507 17,167
 AGI     ALLIANCE GLOBAL c                    5.40                6.30        9,719.73     52,486.53      27,296    32,890    34,481    36,713     20%     5%      6%     3,293    4,846 5,615 6,750
 FPH     FIRST PHILIPPINE HLDGS               55.50      BUY      80.00        596.41      33,100.67      78,565    57,760    60,421    62,102    -26%     5%      3%     1,192    1,675 3,887 5,187
 SM      SM INVESTMENTS CORP                 447.50     HOLD     351.50        611.02      273,432.79     123,889   147,499   159,286   176,611   19%      8%     11%    12,111   14,004 15,186 16,631
Consumer                                                                      5,398.81     299,918.87                                               5%     6%      3%
 JFC     JOLLIBEE FOODS CORPORATION           74.50     HOLD      65.00       1,033.28     76,979.58      43,892    48,056    54,183    58,681      9%    13%      8%    2,322     2,660 3,185    3,492
                             c
SMC      SAN MIGUEL CORP "A"                  67.00               82.00       1,454.34     97,441.05      260,037                                                        9,567    10,743 10,846
                             c
SMCB     SAN MIGUEL CORP "B"                  68.00                            840.83      57,176.56      260,037                                                        9,567    10,743 10,846
 URC     UNIVERSAL ROBINA CORPORATION         33.00      BUY      32.00       2,070.35     68,321.68      45,455    50,453    56,014    57,825    11%     11%     3%     3,342     4,139 6,622    6,285
Telecoms                                                                       319.15      566,648.66                                              1%      4%     2%
 GLO     GLOBE TELECOM INC                    880.00    SELL      800.00       132.35      116,466.68     62,894    62,443    62,466    64,504    -1%      0%     3%     11,276   12,569 11,564 11,992
 TEL     PHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL        2,410.00   HOLD     2,975.00      186.80      450,181.98     142,873   145,647   152,386   155,441    2%      5%     2%     38,151   41,138 40,958 41,818
Property                                                                     78,913.86     439,194.27                                              2%     13%     11%
 ALI     AYALA LAND INC                       15.25      BUY      15.75      12,963.00     197,685.75     30,617    28,074    31,779    36,900    -8%     13%     16%    4,812    4,039   4,648   5,393
 FLI     FILINVEST LAND INC                   0.96       BUY      1.26       24,249.76     23,279.77       3,508     3,675     4,152     4,729     5%     13%     14%    1,867    2,018   2,164   2,461
MEG      MEGAWORLD CORP                       1.56       BUY      1.80       25,637.78     39,994.94      13,978    14,791    17,791    16,318     6%     20%     -8%    3,771    3,751   3,862   4,053
 RLC     ROBINSONS LAND                       14.00      BUY      17.25       2,733.99     38,275.85      10,687    10,496    11,241    12,079    -2%      7%      7%    3,150    3,266   3,514   3,675
SMPH     SM PRIME HOLDINGS                    10.50      BUY      12.25      13,329.33     139,957.97     17,839    20,497    22,932    25,278    15%     12%     10%    6,412    7,023   7,632   8,110
Services                                                                      1,148.54      2,251.13                                               6%      0%      6%
 PAX     PAXYS, INC                           1.96      HOLD      2.20        1,148.54      2,251.13       3,412     3,633     3,635     3,840     6%      0%      6%     -384     245     244    348
Mining                                                                       4,916.06        52,847.59                                             2%      -2%    -7%
 PX      PHILEX MINING CORPORATION            10.75     SELL      6.90       4,916.06        52,847.59     9,048     9,208     9,062     8,438     2%      -2%    -7%    2,800    2,807   2,440   1,704
MARKET                                                                      191,054.13     3,327,459.84                                           11.7%   17.7%   6.4%

    *    Source: Bloomberg
   **    CFY = Current Fiscal Year
  ***    LFY = Last Fiscal Year
   c
         Consensus Forecast
 Net profit growth         Net profit margin       CFO      LTD/E                 EPS                       EPS Growth                   P/E (x)          PEG        P/BV     ROE Div Yield
2009 2010F 2011F          2009 2010F 2011F                  LFY***   2008     2009   2010F      2011F    2009 2010F 2011F       2009     2010F 2011F      CFY       LFY***   LFY*** LFY **    Value   Growth
  55%    16%        16%   19%     20%     22%                                                              56%    12%     17%   16.8     14.8    12.8               1.70      10%     3%
119%    31%        14%     9%     11%     12%     18,672    0.56     0.90     1.94     2.55     2.92      116%   31%     15%    24.23    18.43   16.10    0.21      1.70     7.1%    0.6%     1.65     2.70
  33%     6%        10%   24%     25%     26%      4,316    0.07     1.98     2.63     2.79     3.07      33%     6%      10%   17.87    16.85   15.31     0.54     2.26     12.6%   5.7%     1.95     1.90
  41%     0%        13%   31%     28%     29%      2,830    0.07     32.88    42.07    42.20    47.75     28%     0%      13%   9.81     9.77    8.64      0.35     1.28     13.5%   5.0%     1.95     0.00
  37%   26%         29%   14%     16%     19%     11,472    0.31     2.17     3.60     3.75     4.83      66%     4%      29%   15.83    15.20   11.80     0.24     1.50     7.5%    1.8%     1.65     1.90
  55%    -7%        15%   15%     19%     19%       185     0.61     3.34     3.06     3.30     3.80       -8%    8%      15%   6.86     6.37    5.52     (0.82)    0.69     10.9%   2.9%     0.90     0.00
  33%   13%          9%   32%     34%     33%     (6,340)   0.74     6.29     8.18     8.23     9.00      30%     1%       9%   8.19     8.14    7.44      0.27     1.58     16.5%   3.0%     1.15     1.90
  13%   13%         21%   28%     29%     32%      6,787    0.16     4.96     5.08     5.77     7.27        2%   14%      26%   8.86     7.80    6.19      3.72     0.89     10.9%   4.9%     1.65     1.95
  76%   114%         7%   16%     25%     25%                                                              50%   110%      7%   22.7     11.0    10.2               2.66      12%     2%
  23%   52%        -19%    7%      9%      7%      4,675    0.53     1.80      2.18     3.31     2.67     21%    52%     -19%   17.20    11.33   14.04     0.82     1.73     10.5%   3.0%     1.40     2.85
  31%   233%        -8%   24%     34%     33%      5,690    1.73     0.59      0.77     2.56     2.37     31%    232%     -7%   24.68    7.42    8.02      0.81     3.34     16.1%   1.1%     1.40     3.00
  23%                     12%                       356     0.00     0.34      0.45                       32%                   5.24                       0.16     0.89     16.8%   0.0%     1.50     1.70
177%    28%         21%   16%     14%     16%      9,440    0.73     0.64      1.76    2.26     2.73      175%   28%      21%   11.08    8.63    7.14      0.06     2.00     20.0%   2.6%     1.65     0.00
  11%    4%          6%    8%      9%      9%       243     0.15     0.49      0.54    0.56     0.60      10%     4%       6%   7.04     6.75    6.35      0.67     1.21     17.2%   2.6%     1.65     1.35
154%    158%       -21%   15%     31%     27%     10,064    1.06     0.07      0.18    0.46     0.36      157%   156%    -22%   25.56    10.00   12.78     0.16     2.90     11.0%   2.6%     1.65     2.70
214%    136%         8%    4%     10%     10%       163     1.51     0.64      0.60    1.31     1.41       -6%   118%      7%   16.17    7.40    6.90     (2.59)    0.66     5.5%    0.0%     0.75     1.50
  19%   22%        -20%   20%     22%     19%      2,836    0.00     0.49      0.58    0.71     0.57      19%    22%     -20%   10.17    8.31    10.35     0.54     1.94     25.9%   7.6%     1.95     0.00
 -17%   29%         21%   12%     14%     15%        96     0.91     1.44      1.44    1.74     2.17        0%   21%      25%   22.55    18.71   14.96   (201.99)   2.26     10.0%   1.2%     0.90     1.65
114%    141%        20%   22%     37%     40%     30,609    0.30     2.53      5.42    13.08    15.69     114%   141%     20%   34.13    14.14   11.79     0.30     3.73     9.8%    2.5%     1.65     2.55
338%    105%        38%   14%     25%     29%      9,540    0.82     0.10      0.11    0.21     0.29        9%   91%      38%   23.64    12.38   8.97      2.65     1.02     3.8%    0.0%     1.00     0.00
  14%   10%         22%   32%     31%     33%      5,530    1.20     1.13      1.31    1.45     1.77      16%    10%      22%   12.93    11.72   9.59      0.79     2.10     18.8%   3.9%     1.80     2.45
-212%   41%         -1%    2%      3%      3%      4,332    0.47     (0.42)    0.40    0.52     0.52     -195%   30%       0%   16.25    12.50   12.50    (0.08)    1.55     11.7%   0.0%     0.75     1.50
 110%   60%        209%   11%     16%     32%      4,146    0.85      2.44     5.41    8.13     23.10     122%   50%     184%   19.59    13.04   4.59      0.16     3.01     17.0%   5.7%     2.30     2.85
  61%    14%        13%   13%     13%     13%                                                              72%    13%     13%   16.9     15.2    13.6               1.88      11%     1%
  -4%   11%          9%   13%     13%     13%     14,356    0.54     15.22    15.58    17.23    18.77       2%   11%       9%   20.86    18.86   17.31    8.82      1.67     5.7%    1.2%     1.15     1.50
 259%    -4%        18%   22%     21%     19%     11,472    1.38     0.73     2.80     2.62     3.11      283%    -6%     19%   7.87     8.40    7.07     0.03      2.38     27.8%   1.2%     1.65     1.95
  47%   16%         20%   15%     16%     18%      3,710    0.34     0.38     0.49     0.57     0.69      28%    17%      21%   11.09    9.47    7.85     0.39      0.99     5.9%    0.0%     1.50     2.70
  41%   132.060%    33%    3%      6%      8%      4,620    1.71     2.02     2.84     6.59     8.79      41%    132%     33%   19.54    8.42    6.31     0.48      0.56     2.8%    3.6%     1.80     2.25
  16%     8%        10%    9%     10%      9%     23,185    0.95     17.46    22.92    24.85    27.22     31%     8%      10%   19.52    18.01   16.44    0.62      2.10     8.5%    1.8%     1.65     2.20
  16%    19%         1%    3%      4%      4%                                                             249%    29%      1%   20.2     16.0     8.3               1.96      9%      2%
  15%    20%        10%    6%      6%      6%      6,434    0.15      2.25     2.58     3.09     3.39     15%    20%      10%   28.83    24.08   21.96    1.96      4.55     16.3%   2.6%     1.15     0.00
  12%     1%                                      18,605    0.34      3.05     3.92     4.73              28%    21%            17.11    14.16            0.60      0.75     4.5%    1.6%              0.00
  12%     1%                                      18,605    0.34      3.05     3.92     4.73              28%    21%            17.37    14.38            0.61      0.76     4.5%    1.5%              0.00
  24%    60%       -5%     8%     12%     11%      5,412    0.34      0.17     1.89     3.02     2.87    1012%   60%     -5%    17.46    10.93   11.50    0.02      1.74     11.3%   2.8%     1.65     2.70
   9%    -2%        2%    27%     25%     25%                                                               8%    3%      3%     10.7    10.5    10.1               4.99      38%     10%
  11%    -8%        4%    20%     19%     19%     30,576    0.85      88.90    90.06    86.77    89.98      1%   -4%      4%     9.77    10.14   9.78     7.49      2.61     26.3%   13.9%    1.45     1.00
   8%     0%        2%    28%     27%     27%     69,808    0.91     199.10   219.20   228.80   235.30     10%    4%      3%    10.99    10.53   10.24    1.09      5.61     41.5%   9.0%     1.45     1.65
  -3%    11%       11%    25%     25%     24%                                                              -4%   10%     12%     31.0    27.4    24.1               2.84      10%     2%
 -16%    15%       16%    14%     15%     15%      4,410    0.33      0.37     0.31     0.36     0.42     -16%   16%     17%    49.19    42.36   36.31    (3.03)    3.79     6.8%    0.5%     0.90     1.65
   8%     7%       14%    55%     52%     52%       879     0.30      0.08     0.08     0.09     0.10       8%    7%     15%    11.71    10.91   9.50      1.48     0.59     5.2%    3.4%     1.30     1.55
  -1%     3%        5%    25%     22%     25%       311     0.33      0.18     0.16     0.15     0.16     -11%   -6%      7%     9.75    10.40   9.75     (0.88)    0.78     7.5%    1.2%     0.90     1.20
   4%     8%        5%    31%     31%     30%      5,383    0.59      1.15     1.19     1.28     1.34       3%    8%      5%    11.76    10.94   10.45     3.38     1.41     12.8%   3.4%     1.30     1.25
  10%     9%        6%    34%     33%     32%     10,597    0.68      0.48     0.53     0.57     0.61      10%    8%      7%    19.81    18.42   17.21     1.90     2.85     14.6%   2.4%     1.15     1.95
-164%     0%       43%     7%      7%      9%                                                            -162%    0%     43%     (6.4)    9.3     6.5               0.98      11%     0%
-164%     0%       43%     7%      7%      9%     1,488     0.25     (0.34)    0.21     0.21     0.30    -162%    0%     43%    -639%    9.33    6.53     0.04      0.98     10.5%   0.0%     1.50     0.90
 0%     -13%       -30%    30%     27%     20%                                                            0%     -13%    -30%   18.8     21.5    30.7               3.10      16%     0%
 0%     -13%       -30%    30%     27%     20%    2,138     0.00      0.57     0.57     0.50     0.35     0%     -13%    -30%   18.80    21.50   30.71   62.68      3.10     15.9%   0.0%     1.00     1.00
34.4%   40.7%      7.9%   19.1%   21.4%   21.5%                                                          52.3%   39.7%   8.3%   16.9     13.1    12.3               2.91      16%     4%

				
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