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Download - جامعة القاهرة‎

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 29

									NEW VISION OF ENGINEERING ECONOMY TEACHING

                MODULE 3 Evaluation Assignment

Cost Benefit Analysis of Sidi-Kerir Units 3&4 Power Station
                  "From the Investor Point of View"


      Submitted by

      Ahmed Galal El Deen Mohamed                     PG06
      Mohamed Samir Mahmoud El Attal                  PG21
      Mohamed Fathy Esmail                            UG73
NOMY TEACHING
Life time, years                                 20
Capacity, MW                                    684
Operating hours per year                        7008


          Investment Cost, $
Loan                                     315,000,000
Own                                      135,000,000
                                 Total   450,000,000


         Running cost, $/year

Operating and Maintenance                 $8,809,472
Fuel, natural gas                         24,638,446
Fuel,diesel (cold starting )                 126,567
Consumables                                  308,332


               Revenue
Electricity, "annual" $/year             123,192,230


                Factors
O&M factor, m                                   0.17
Consumable factor, c                           0.035
Fuel cost annual escalation (NG)                  1%
Fuel cost escalation factor (NG)                 1.01
Fuel cost annual escalation (diesel)              1%
Fuel cost escalation factor (diesel)             1.01
Electricity annual escalation                     5%
Electricity escalation factor                    1.05
Discount rate, i                                 10%
Discount factor                                  1.10
Inflation rate                                    4%
Inflation factor                                 1.04
Loan interest rate                                4%
Loan interest factor                             1.04
Selling price of electricity, $/KW            0.0257
Cost of fuel consumption, $/kw               0.00514
 The reference to all these data is Eng. Sayed
Elshenawy, Manager of Sidi-Kerir management
                  company.
          Costs
Loan, $                                  315,000,000
Own, $                                   135,000,000
O&M, $/year                                8,809,472
Fuel NG, $/year                           24,638,446
Fuel Diesel, $/year                          126,567
Consumable, $/year                           308,332

           Revenue
Electricity, "annual" $/year             123,192,230




Cumulative Cash Flow
         Base case

                                                                                                  Costs
Year\item                          Investment, Total Loan,             O&M                         Fuel, NG
                            0            450,000,000
                            1            495,000,000        23,178,251                   9,161,851    25,880,224
                            2            609,041,331        25,496,076                   9,528,325    27,184,587
                            3            738,895,803        28,045,684                   9,909,458    28,554,690
                            4            886,489,066        30,850,253                  10,305,836    29,993,847
                            5          1,053,969,162        33,935,278                  10,718,070    31,505,536
                            6          1,243,731,524        37,328,806                  11,146,792    33,093,416
                            7          1,458,446,743        41,061,686                  11,592,664    34,761,324
                            8          1,701,091,401        45,167,855                  12,056,371    36,513,294
                            9          1,974,982,309        49,684,640                  12,538,625    38,353,564
                           10          2,283,814,513        54,653,104                  13,040,170    40,286,584
                           11          2,631,703,503        60,118,415                  13,561,777    42,317,028
                           12          3,023,232,043        66,130,256                  14,104,248    44,449,806
                           13          3,463,502,175        72,743,282                  14,668,418    46,690,076
                           14          3,958,192,911        80,017,610                  15,255,155    49,043,256
                           15          4,513,624,277        88,019,371                  15,865,361    51,515,036
                           16          5,136,828,361        96,821,308                  16,499,976    54,111,394
                           17          5,835,628,158       106,503,439                  17,159,975    56,838,608
                           18          6,618,725,034       117,153,783                  17,846,374    59,703,274
                           19          7,495,795,761       128,869,161                  18,560,229    62,712,319
                           20          8,477,600,153       141,756,077                  19,302,638    65,873,020
Payback period                                      9
DCP                                                16



Senstivity analysis
    Loan Interest Rate

Loan Interest Rate                                2%
years\item                         R-C                  Gains                  Economic efficiency
                               0         -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                               1         -420,408,210           -404,238,663                   -90%
                               2         -385,006,450           -355,960,105                -79.10%
                      3          -343,164,236        -305,071,756                  -67.79%
                      4          -294,195,070        -251,479,179                  -55.88%
                      5          -237,352,145        -195,086,162                  -43.35%
                      6          -171,823,789        -135,794,837                  -30.18%
                      7           -96,728,628         -73,505,807                  -16.33%
                      8           -11,110,465          -8,118,308                   -1.80%
                      9            86,067,128          60,469,622                   13.44%
                     10           195,926,523         132,360,939                   29.41%
                     11           319,682,042         207,659,358                   46.15%
                     12           458,646,266         286,469,104                   63.66%
                     13           614,236,647         368,894,613                   81.98%
                     14           787,982,409         455,040,207                  101.12%
                     15           981,531,733         545,009,730                  121.11%
                     16         1,196,659,219         638,906,140                  141.98%
                     17         1,435,273,586         736,831,059                  163.74%
                     18         1,699,425,603         838,884,267                  186.42%
                     19         1,991,316,203         945,163,149                  210.04%
                     20         2,313,304,735       1,055,762,083                  234.61%

Loan Interest Rate                        3%
years\item                R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                      0          -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                      1          -422,316,792           -406,073,838                   -90%
                      2          -389,205,329           -359,842,205                -79.96%
                      3          -350,092,388           -311,230,858                -69.16%
                      4          -304,356,359           -260,165,091                -57.81%
                      5          -251,323,918           -206,569,940                -45.90%
                      6          -190,266,529           -150,370,401                -33.42%
                      7          -120,396,810            -91,491,681                -20.33%
                      8           -40,864,751            -29,859,474                 -6.64%
                      9            49,246,199             34,599,726                  7.69%
                     10           150,923,165            101,958,283                 22.66%
                     11           265,227,979            172,287,038                 38.29%
                     12           393,301,390            245,654,888                 54.59%
                     13           536,367,337            322,128,323                 71.58%
                     14           695,737,226            401,770,912                 89.28%
                     15           872,814,196            484,642,741               107.70%
                     16         1,069,097,309            570,799,794               126.84%
                     17         1,286,185,604            660,293,278               146.73%
                     18         1,525,781,954            753,168,879               167.37%
                     19         1,789,696,632            849,465,948               188.77%
                     20         2,079,850,495            949,216,616               210.94%

Loan Interest Rate                        5%
years\item                R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                     0           -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                     1           -426,420,259           -410,019,479                   -91%
                     2           -398,232,957           -368,188,755                -81.82%
                     3           -364,987,973           -324,472,979                -72.11%
                     4           -326,203,218           -278,839,878                -61.96%
                     5           -281,363,348           -231,260,163                -51.39%
                     6           -229,918,577           -181,707,991                -40.38%
                        7          -171,283,606           -130,161,463               -28.92%
                        8          -104,836,723            -76,603,167               -17.02%
                        9           -29,919,116            -21,020,774                -4.67%
                       10            54,165,558             36,592,310                 8.13%
                       11           148,151,274             96,236,243                21.39%
                       12           252,809,345            157,903,971                35.09%
                       13           368,947,650            221,580,398                49.24%
                       14           497,409,289            287,241,470                63.83%
                       15           639,070,556            354,853,194                78.86%
                       16           794,838,104            424,370,562                94.30%
                       17           965,645,158            495,736,389               110.16%
                       18         1,152,446,611            568,880,055               126.42%
                       19         1,356,212,817            643,716,139               143.05%
                       20         1,577,921,867            720,142,942               160.03%

Loan Interest Rate                          6%
years\item                  R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                        0          -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                        1          -428,606,979           -412,122,095                   -92%
                        2          -403,043,742           -372,636,596                -82.81%
                        3          -372,925,768           -331,529,650                -73.67%
                        4          -337,845,318           -288,791,593                -64.18%
                        5          -297,371,236           -244,417,479                -54.31%
                        6          -251,048,988           -198,407,662                -44.09%
                        7          -198,400,967           -150,768,429                -33.50%
                        8          -138,927,120           -101,512,686                -22.56%
                        9           -72,105,982            -50,660,707                -11.26%
                       10             2,603,833              1,759,056                  0.39%
                       11            85,761,587             55,709,091                 12.38%
                       12           177,941,720            111,141,873                 24.70%
                       13           279,730,397            167,998,827                 37.33%
                       14           391,721,158            226,209,208                 50.27%
                       15           514,509,545            285,688,887                 63.49%
                       16           648,686,518            346,339,035                 76.96%
                       17           794,830,492            408,044,709                 90.68%
                       18           953,497,764            470,673,310               104.59%
                       19         1,125,211,101            534,072,925               118.68%
                       20         1,310,446,196            598,070,537               132.90%

Senstivity analysis
      Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate                              3%
years\item                  R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                       0           -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                       1           -423,980,790           -411,631,835                   -91%
                       2           -392,529,884           -369,997,063                -82.22%
                       3           -355,062,807           -324,932,766                -72.21%
                       4           -310,945,588           -276,271,128                -61.39%
                       5           -259,491,393           -223,839,555                -49.74%
                       6           -199,957,018           -167,460,854                -37.21%
                  7          -131,539,244        -106,953,443                  -23.77%
                  8           -53,371,076         -42,131,620                   -9.36%
                  9            35,482,142          27,194,107                    6.04%
                 10           136,026,696         101,216,637                   22.49%
                 11           249,344,552         180,131,810                   40.03%
                 12           376,597,439         264,137,867                   58.70%
                 13           519,030,954         353,434,824                   78.54%
                 14           677,978,629         448,223,743                   99.61%
                 15           854,865,916         548,705,902                  121.93%
                 16         1,051,214,040         655,081,836                  145.57%
                 17         1,268,643,625         767,550,257                  170.57%
                 18         1,508,878,038         886,306,823                  196.96%
                 19         1,773,746,331       1,011,542,748                  224.79%
                 20         2,065,185,672       1,143,443,234                  254.10%

Inflation Rate                        5%
years\item            R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                  0          -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                  1          -424,663,400           -404,441,333                   -90%
                  2          -394,710,987           -358,014,500                -79.56%
                  3          -359,709,647           -310,730,717                -69.05%
                  4          -319,196,977           -262,604,143                -58.36%
                  5          -272,680,275           -213,652,131                -47.48%
                  6          -219,635,652           -163,895,505                -36.42%
                  7          -159,507,280           -113,358,846                -25.19%
                  8           -91,706,845            -62,070,802                -13.79%
                  9           -15,613,219            -10,064,420                 -2.24%
                 10            69,427,564             42,622,502                  9.47%
                 11           164,101,996             95,947,038                 21.32%
                 12           269,128,347            149,860,734                 33.30%
                 13           385,255,421            204,309,175                 45.40%
                 14           513,260,710            259,231,536                 57.61%
                 15           653,947,830            314,560,088                 69.90%
                 16           808,143,140            370,219,684                 82.27%
                 17           976,691,364            426,127,207                 94.69%
                 18         1,160,450,089            482,190,981               107.15%
                 19         1,360,282,928            538,310,146               119.62%
                 20         1,577,051,149            594,373,992               132.08%

Inflation Rate                        6%
years\item            R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                  0          -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                  1          -425,004,704           -400,947,834                   -89%
                  2          -395,811,852           -352,271,139                -78.28%
                  3          -362,077,037           -304,006,862                -67.56%
                  4          -323,439,838           -256,194,646                -56.93%
                  5          -279,524,512           -208,876,976                -46.42%
                  6          -229,941,002           -162,099,333                -36.02%
                  7          -174,286,312           -115,910,352                -25.76%
                  8          -112,146,321            -70,361,989                -15.64%
                  9           -43,098,106            -25,509,703                 -5.67%
                 10            33,287,147             18,587,369                  4.13%
                        11            117,440,536            61,866,209                 13.75%
                        12            209,791,041           104,259,720                 23.17%
                        13            310,760,206           145,696,511                 32.38%
                        14            420,755,754           186,100,676                 41.36%
                        15            540,163,980           225,391,556                 50.09%
                        16            669,340,748           263,483,498                 58.55%
                        17            808,600,878           300,285,595                 66.73%
                        18            958,205,700           335,701,418                 74.60%
                        19          1,118,348,508           369,628,732                 82.14%
                        20          1,289,137,621           401,959,204                 89.32%

Senstivity analysis
Electricity price escalation rate

Escalation Rate                               3%
years\item                   R-C                    Gains                  Economic efficiency
                         0           -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                         1           -426,785,940           -410,371,096                   -91%
                         2           -401,452,023           -371,164,962                -82.48%
                         3           -373,985,097           -332,471,389                -73.88%
                         4           -344,394,384           -294,389,762                -65.42%
                         5           -312,716,123           -257,029,858                -57.12%
                         6           -279,018,921           -220,512,706                -49.00%
                         7           -243,409,894           -184,971,514                -41.10%
                         8           -206,041,713           -150,552,661                -33.46%
                         9           -167,120,669           -117,416,765                -26.09%
                        10           -126,915,896            -85,739,832                -19.05%
                        11            -85,769,891            -55,714,486                -12.38%
                        12            -44,110,514            -27,551,297                 -6.12%
                        13             -2,464,639             -1,480,198                 -0.33%
                        14             38,526,313             22,247,986                  4.94%
                        15             78,088,737             43,359,904                  9.64%
                        16            115,296,830             61,557,920                 13.68%
                        17            149,049,899             76,518,230                 17.00%
                        18            178,046,666             87,888,841                 19.53%
                        19            200,756,185             95,287,402                 21.17%
                        20            215,384,959             98,298,884                 21.84%

Escalation Rate                               4%
years\item                   R-C                    Gains                  Economic efficiency
                         0           -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                         1           -425,554,017           -409,186,555                   -91%
                         2           -397,546,829           -367,554,391                -81.68%
                         3           -365,730,355           -325,132,954                -72.25%
                         4           -329,850,623           -281,957,695                -62.66%
                         5           -289,649,360           -238,070,661                -52.90%
                         6           -244,865,976           -193,521,138                -43.00%
                         7           -195,239,988           -148,366,345                -32.97%
                         8           -140,513,974           -102,672,184                -22.82%
                         9            -80,437,118            -56,514,052                -12.56%
                        10            -14,769,451             -9,977,712                 -2.22%
                  11           56,713,118             36,839,760                  8.19%
                  12          134,212,863             83,828,958                 18.63%
                  13          217,903,251            130,867,046                 29.08%
                  14          307,920,774            177,816,574                 39.51%
                  15          404,355,411            224,524,206                 49.89%
                  16          507,239,543            270,819,339                 60.18%
                  17          616,535,103            316,512,627                 70.34%
                  18          732,118,720            361,394,388                 80.31%
                  19          853,764,572            405,232,886                 90.05%
                  20          981,124,660            447,772,488                 99.50%

Escalation Rate                        6%
years\item             R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                   0          -450,000,000        -450,000,000                     -100%
                   1          -423,090,173        -406,817,474                      -90%
                   2          -389,662,526        -360,264,910                   -80.06%
                   3          -348,908,210        -310,178,128                   -68.93%
                   4          -299,936,396        -256,386,888                   -56.97%
                   5          -241,766,901        -198,714,770                   -44.16%
                   6          -173,322,210        -136,979,060                   -30.44%
                   7           -93,418,851         -70,990,649                   -15.78%
                   8              -758,098            -553,935                    -0.12%
                   9           106,084,070          74,533,260                    16.56%
                  10           228,667,783         154,479,761                    34.33%
                  11           368,700,931         239,501,094                    53.22%
                  12           528,051,698         329,819,532                    73.29%
                  13           708,762,040         425,664,114                    94.59%
                  14           913,062,159         527,270,646                  117.17%
                  15         1,143,386,036         634,881,679                  141.08%
                  16         1,402,388,083         748,746,463                  166.39%
                  17         1,692,960,977         869,120,872                  193.14%
                  18         2,018,254,732         996,267,291                  221.39%
                  19         2,381,697,088       1,130,454,479                  251.21%
                  20         2,787,015,252       1,271,957,380                  282.66%

Escalation Rate                        7%
years\item             R-C                   Gains                  Economic efficiency
                   0          -450,000,000           -450,000,000                  -100%
                   1          -421,858,250           -405,632,933                   -90%
                   2          -385,683,417           -356,586,000                -79.24%
                   3          -340,339,328           -302,560,423                -67.24%
                   4          -284,558,094           -243,241,451                -54.05%
                   5          -216,926,287           -178,297,596                -39.62%
                   6          -135,869,748           -107,379,836                -23.86%
                   7           -39,636,907            -30,120,792                 -6.69%
                   8            73,719,529             53,866,138                 11.97%
                   9           206,362,669            144,987,674                 32.22%
                  10           360,693,483            243,671,593                 54.15%
                  11           539,374,974            350,367,698                 77.86%
                  12           745,358,680            465,548,832               103.46%
                  13           981,913,711            589,711,930               131.05%
                  14         1,252,658,569            723,379,111               160.75%
15   1,561,595,987     867,098,819   192.69%
16   1,913,151,076   1,021,447,001   226.99%
17   2,312,213,075   1,187,028,331   263.78%
18   2,764,181,030   1,364,477,488   303.22%
19   3,275,013,757   1,554,460,468   345.44%
20   3,851,284,476   1,757,675,961   390.59%
s                                                       Revenue
    Fuel, Diesel    Consumables Total cost          Electricity       R-C
                                      450,000,000                            -450,000,000
          132,946       320,665       553,673,937       129,351,842          -424,322,095
          139,647       333,491       671,723,457       278,106,460          -393,616,997
          146,685       346,831       805,899,151       448,527,512          -357,371,639
          154,078       360,704       958,153,784       643,121,189          -315,032,595
          161,844       375,132     1,130,665,022       864,661,280          -266,003,742
          170,000       390,138     1,325,860,676     1,116,216,779          -209,643,896
          178,568       405,743     1,546,446,729     1,401,182,297          -145,264,432
          187,568       421,973     1,795,438,462     1,723,311,558           -72,126,905
          197,022       438,852     2,076,195,012     2,086,754,296            10,559,284
          206,952       456,406     2,392,457,730     2,496,096,888           103,639,159
          217,382       474,662     2,748,392,767     2,956,407,097           208,014,331
          228,338       493,649     3,148,638,341     3,473,283,353           324,645,013
          239,846       513,395     3,598,357,192     4,052,909,012           454,551,820
          251,935       533,930     4,103,294,797     4,702,112,103           598,817,306
          264,632       555,288     4,669,843,965     5,428,431,113           758,587,148
          277,969       577,499     5,305,116,508     6,240,187,413           935,070,906
          291,979       600,599     6,017,022,758     7,146,565,003         1,129,542,245
          306,695       624,623     6,814,359,783     8,157,698,295         1,343,338,512
          322,152       649,608     7,706,909,230     9,284,768,755         1,577,859,525
          338,389       675,592     8,705,545,869    10,540,111,293         1,834,565,424
Gains            Economic efficiency    Years
   -450,000,000                 -100%       0
   -408,002,014                  -91%       1
   -363,921,040               -80.87%       2
   -317,702,086               -70.60%       3
   -269,291,182               -59.84%       4
   -218,635,686               -48.59%       5
   -165,684,616               -36.82%       6
   -110,389,029               -24.53%       7
    -52,702,423               -11.71%       8
       7,418,813                1.65%       9
      70,014,902               15.56%      10
    135,122,143                30.03%      11
    202,772,317                45.06%      12
    272,992,044                60.66%      13
    345,802,074                76.84%      14
    421,216,516                93.60%      15
    499,242,001              110.94%       16
    579,876,769              128.86%       17
    663,109,666              147.36%       18
    748,919,070              166.43%       19
    837,271,711              186.06%       20
Base case

Years\item               Investment     Loan         O&M           Fuel "NG+D" Consumables
                     0     -450,000,000
                     1                   -23,178,251    -9,161,851   -26,013,170   -320,665
                     2                   -23,178,251    -9,528,325   -27,324,234   -333,491
                     3                   -23,178,251    -9,909,458   -28,701,375   -346,831
                     4                   -23,178,251   -10,305,836   -30,147,925   -360,704
                     5                   -23,178,251   -10,718,070   -31,667,380   -375,132
                     6                   -23,178,251   -11,146,792   -33,263,416   -390,138
                     7                   -23,178,251   -11,592,664   -34,939,892   -405,743
                     8                   -23,178,251   -12,056,371   -36,700,863   -421,973
                     9                   -23,178,251   -12,538,625   -38,550,586   -438,852
                    10                   -23,178,251   -13,040,170   -40,493,536   -456,406
                    11                   -23,178,251   -13,561,777   -42,534,410   -474,662
                    12                   -23,178,251   -14,104,248   -44,678,144   -493,649
                    13                   -23,178,251   -14,668,418   -46,929,923   -513,395
                    14                   -23,178,251   -15,255,155   -49,295,191   -533,930
                    15                   -23,178,251   -15,865,361   -51,779,668   -555,288
                    16                   -23,178,251   -16,499,976   -54,389,364   -577,499
                    17                   -23,178,251   -17,159,975   -57,130,588   -600,599
                    18                   -23,178,251   -17,846,374   -60,009,969   -624,623
                    19                   -23,178,251   -18,560,229   -63,034,472   -649,608
                    20                   -23,178,251   -19,302,638   -66,211,409   -675,592
NPV                         451,626,993
IRR                                21%




Senstivity analysis
 loan Interest Rate

Loan Interest Rate                 2%          3%            5%            6%
NPV                        481,918,912 467,147,247   435,388,039   418,463,690
IRR                               22%         21%         20.5%           20%

Senstivity analysis
   Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate                     3%          5%            6%            7%
NPV                        482,790,839 416,828,942   377,923,023   334,372,202
IRR                             21.3%       20.3%         19.7%           19%

Senstivity analysis
Electricity price escalation rate

Escalation rate                    3%          4%            6%            7%
NPV                        232,826,213 336,301,056   580,332,082   724,147,390
IRR                               17%         19%           23%           24%
Electricity            Total
                -450,000,000
  129,351,842     70,677,905
  135,819,434     75,455,133
  142,610,406     80,474,490
  149,740,926     85,748,210
  157,227,972     91,289,139
  165,089,371     97,110,774
  173,343,839    103,227,289
  182,011,031    109,653,574
  191,111,583    116,405,268
  200,667,162    123,498,799
  210,700,520    130,951,420
  221,235,546    138,781,254
  232,297,324    147,007,337
  243,912,190    155,649,662
  256,107,799    164,729,231
  268,913,189    174,268,100
  282,358,849    184,289,436
  296,476,791    194,817,574
  311,300,631    205,878,071
  326,865,662    217,497,772
                          Costs Vs Revenus
                                                                       1,000




                                                            Millions
            12
Billions




                                 Total cost   Revenu                    800
            10
                                                                        600
             8
                                                                        400

             6                                                          200

             4                                                            0

                                                                        -200
             2
                                                                        -400
             0
                  0   5            10           15     20               -600
                                   Years

                          Economic efficiency
      250%

      200%

      150%

      100%

           50%

            0%
                  0   5            10           15     20
           -50%

   -100%

   -150%
                                     Years
                Gains
1,000

 800

 600

 400

 200

   0
        0   5     10     15   20
 200

 400

 600
                 Years
            Impact of Loan Interest Rate on Economic Efficiency
                                 Figure 1.1
                                                                                                   22%
300%
                  2%           3%        5%           6%            Base case 4%                   22%
250%
                                                                                                   21%




                                                                                             IRR
200%                                                                                               21%
150%                                                                                               21%
                                                                                                   21%
100%
                                                                                                   21%
 50%
                                                                                                   20%
  0%                                                                                               20%
        0                5                10                   15                       20
-50%                                                                                               20%

-100%                                                                                              20%
                                                                                                         0%       1%
-150%
                                              Years


              Impact of inflation Rate on Economic Efficiency
                                  Figure 2.1
300%                                                                                         22%
                 3%       5%        6%         Base 4%                                       21%
250%
                                                                                             21%
200%                                                                                         21%
150%                                                                                         21%
100%                                                                                         21%
                                                                                             20%
 50%
                                                                                             20%
  0%
                                                                                             20%
 -50% 0                  5               10                  15                    20        20%
-100%                                                                                        20%
-150%                                                                                                0%
                                          Years


              Impact of electricity price escalation rate on Economic Efficiency                              Impact of electric
                                           Figure 3.1

500%                                                                                                30%
                3%        4%        6%         7%          Base case 5%
400%                                                                                                25%

300%                                                                                                20%
                                                                                             IRR




200%                                                                                                15%
                                  IRR
200%                                    15%
100%                                    10%
  0%
                                        5%
        0   5   10      15   20
-100%
                                        0%
-200%
                                              0%
                Years
      Impact of Loan interest rate on IRR
                  Figure 1.2




    1%      2%       3%        4%     5%        6%   7%
                     Interest rate


         Impact of inflation rate on IRR
                   Figure 2.2




          2%              4%               6%             8%
                     Inflation rate


Impact of electricity price escalation rate on IRR
                    Figure 3.2
1%   2%   3%   4%      5%   6%   7%   8%
          Escalation rate
Conclusion
Economic analysis results indicate that this investment is feasible as well as attractive if
the assumptions were valid and without being compared to other alternatives.
From the sensitivity analysis, is it seen that the most factor that has a great effect on the
project is the electricity price escalation rate, as it is the only factor from the factors that
we studied that turned the project to be very unattractive, at escalation rate of 3%
,which result in an economic efficiency of 22%.

								
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