STUDY ON DAMAGE AND LOSS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY IN GUJARAT Contract Number GSDMA DM DLA C 05 04 by scj97663

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									           STUDY ON DAMAGE AND
       LOSS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
                     IN
                  GUJARAT
                    Contract Number: GSDMA/DM/DLA/C-05/04




                           INCEPTION REPORT
S UBMITTED   TO :   G UJARAT S TATE D ISASTER M ANAGEMENT A UTHORITY
                              February 2004


                        ASIAN DISASTER PREPAREDNESS CENTER
                               BANGKOK, THAILAND
                                                                  Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                                                         TABLE OF CONTENTS


Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... 2
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... 3
List of Tables............................................................................................................................. 3
List of Annex ............................................................................................................................ 3
Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... 4
Inception Report ..................................................................................................................... 5
   1.      Background: Disaster Damages and Losses .............................................................................. 5
        1.1 Damages and Losses in Gujarat: A Preliminary Analysis .......................................................... 5
        1.2 The need for a Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology ................................................. 7
        1.3 Damage and Loss Assessment Methodologies and their use in other contexts .................. 8
   2.      Objectives of the Assignment ...................................................................................................... 9
   3.      Scope of Work in the Assignment .............................................................................................. 11
        3.1 Basic assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 11
        3.2 Scope of the DALA methodology ............................................................................................... 11
        3.3 Conceptual framework of the DALA methodology ................................................................ 13
          3.3.1 Direct damages ......................................................................................................................14
          3.3.2 Indirect losses ...........................................................................................................................14
          3.3.3 Macroeconomic effects .......................................................................................................15
        3.4 Study Outputs................................................................................................................................... 15
        3.5 Expected Developmental Outcomes resulting from Study .................................................... 16
   4.      Activities and Output Delivery Schedule .................................................................................. 17
        4.1 Institutional Mechanism for Damage and Loss Assessments .................................................. 17
          4.1.1 Review of the existing damage and loss assessment mechanism ...............................17
          4.1.2 Proposal for improved damage and loss assessment mechanism ..............................18
          4.1.3 Identification and involvement with counterpart agencies ..........................................18
          4.1.4 Capacity building program design .....................................................................................18
        4.2 Damage Assessment Methodology ............................................................................................ 19
          4.2.1 Analysis of existing mechanisms and formats ...................................................................19
          4.2.2 Initial Assessment of damaged building and infrastructure for safety/usability .........20
          4.2.3 Valuation criteria for varying extent of damage and recommended actions .........20
          4.2.4 Damage assessment methodology ....................................................................................21
        4.3 Loss Assessment Methodology ..................................................................................................... 22
          4.3.1 Analysis of existing mechanisms and formats ...................................................................23
          4.3.2 Methodology Development for Loss Assessment .............................................................25
        4.4 Capacity Building for Damage and Loss Assessment .............................................................. 26
          4.4.1 Training Strategy ......................................................................................................................26
          4.4.2 Training Courses ......................................................................................................................27
        4.5 Final report of the study ................................................................................................................. 28
   5.      Deployment of Expertise by the Consultants ........................................................................... 29
Annex..................................................................................................................................... 33


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                                                            Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology




                                                       LIST OF FIGURES


Figure 1: Activity Chart ............................................................................................................ 10
Figure 2: Activities versus Outputs/Deliverables .................................................................. 28




                                                         LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Summary of damage and losses caused by selected, recent major disasters in
    the State of Gujarat ........................................................................................................... 6
Table 2: Social and Economic Sectors having had damage and losses as revealed in
    the State of Gujarat‟s Relief Memoranda to Government of India over the last 10
    years ................................................................................................................................... 12
Table 3: List of sectors and public and leading private institutions – at the State
    Government and District levels – to be included in the analysis and assessment of
    indirect losses .................................................................................................................... 24
Table 4: International and national experts and consultants for the study ..................... 29




                                                         LIST OF ANNEX


Annex 1: Scope of Services .................................................................................................... 33
Annex 2: Proceedings of Negotiation Meeting ................................................................... 38
Annex 3: List of documents collected .................................................................................. 40




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                                      Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                                     ABBREVIATIONS


ADPC: Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Thailand
CEPT: Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology, Ahmedbad, India
D: Direct Damages
DA: Damage Assessment
DaLA: Damage and Loss Assessment Study
ECLAC: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
ECLAC methodology: Methodology for estimating                 the    socio-economic      and
environmental effects of disasters developed by ECLAC
ESCAP: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
GEERP: Gujarat Emergency Earthquake Reconstruction Project
GSDMA: Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority
HAZUS: Hazards United States
L: Indirect Losses
LA: Loss Assessment
UNDP: United Nations Development Program
UN: United Nations




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                                        Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology




                                     INCEPTION REPORT

1. B AC K GR OU ND : D I SA S TER D A M AG ES   A ND   L OS SE S
Disasters, whether of natural or man-made origin, are an issue of development. The
combination of the occurrence of an increasing number of natural hazards and the
establishment and growth of human settlements under inadequate conditions, has
produced increased risks for damage and losses to society and the economy, and
therefore disaster risks must be managed as an integral part of the development
process.

The number of disasters and the amount of damage and losses they inflict have been
increasing since 1950 in the entire world, to a figure close to US$ 540 billion by the end
of the twentieth Century. The costs of destroyed or damaged physical infrastructure
and the losses of production arising from disasters are so high in many disaster-prone
countries that living conditions deteriorate considerably and economic growth is
impaired significantly, conditions that are aggravated with the successive occurrence
of events.

The degree and nature of development has a bearing on the type and amount of
damage and losses caused by disasters. It has been found that in industrialized
countries direct damages to infrastructure are very high due to the concentration of
investment and capital, medium and long-term consequences are limited due to the
relatively large size and dynamism of the economies, and losses of human lives are
minimal due to the availability of early warning systems. In developing countries, on the
other hand, direct damages to infrastructure may be relatively limited but indirect
losses significantly impair economic growth and negatively affect living conditions of
large populations that already have low living standards.

Studies conducted in the Central American countries – located in a very disaster-prone
region – show that, in the past thirty years, damages and losses caused by disasters of
every kind reach to slightly more that US$ 850 million per year, which figure is equivalent
to about 2.1% of the combined gross domestic product of the countries. Thus, these
countries´ economic growth and living conditions, instead of improving over time,
have been set back due to the occurrence of disasters. Realizing the seriousness of the
matter, their governments have adopted a pro-active strategy and program of
disaster damage and loss reduction – instead of continuing with a passive strategy of
only reacting to emergencies – that is already producing encouraging results.


1.1 Damages and Losses in Gujarat: A Preliminary Analysis

The State of Gujarat is similarly located in a geographical area of relatively high
proneness to disasters. According to records kept by the State Revenue Department,
droughts have occurred at an average of 3 per decade, the most notable examples
of which occurred in the years 1985-1988, 1992-1993, 1995-1996, and most recently in
1999-2001 and 2002-2003; tropical cyclones have also occurred very frequently and
with varying intensity, especially during the years 1982, 1996, 1998 and 1999; floods due
to heavy rains also took place in 1997 and very recently in 2003; and in 2001 there
occurred the infamous earthquake that took many thousands of lives.

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                                            Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


While damage and loss estimates are far from complete, it is interesting to note that
existing records show that for the major events alone in the five year period 1997-2001,
a total of Rupees 29,400 Crore have been lost as damage to physical assets and
production losses. In addition, it is worth noting that droughts have affected extensive
areas of the territory and that up to 13,148 villages and 19.2 million persons were
directly affected by the event of 2000-2001. Furthermore, the earthquake of 2001
caused 18,600 deaths, injured more than 160,000 persons, and directly affected about
15.8 million people in some 7,900 villages (See Table 1).


Table 1: Summary of damage and losses caused by selected, recent major disasters in
                              the State of Gujarat
Type of disaster       Affected population                           Crore, Rs
 and individual                                      Estimated damage        Relief assistance
     event                                               and losses1             provided
Drought
1999-2000                         9,449 villages                        …                       586

2000-2001                        13,148 villages                     7,970                     1974
                            19.2 million people
2002-2003                                    N.A.                    3,408                      895
Floods
1997                                         N.A.                      664                        82

1998                                 24 deaths                         275                      N.A.
                               95,000 affected
2003                                      N.A.                         431                      239
Cyclones
1998                                1,167 deaths                     2,100                      611
                                    9,000 injured
                            4.6 million affected
                                   2,938 villages
1999                                          N.A.                      95                      N.A.
Earthquake
2001                            18,600 deaths                       14,455                      N.A.
                               160,000 injured
                          15.8 million affected
                                  7,900 villages
Total                                                              29,398
Source: Memoranda to the Government of India on different disasters, prepared by the Revenue
Department, Government of Gujarat, various years, during the period 1997 to 2003


There is then a clear pattern of intense damage and losses affecting a significant
number of people, their living conditions and the economy. Single drought events
have affected up to 72 per cent of the villages and to 38 per cent of the State‟s
population. The damage and losses estimates – despite their incompleteness – are in
themselves very high but it is more important to note that their average represents up
to 5.4 per cent of the State‟s gross domestic product for the five-year period in which
they occurred2.

1  Estimates made and given do not include all public and private sector damages to assets nor all
corresponding future losses of production and revenue or increased expenditures arising from the disaster.
2 This figure is more than twice as large as that for Central America, as previously mentioned.

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                                          Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


Furthermore, the damage and losses estimated for the 2001 earthquake alone
represent 13 per cent of the previous year‟s State gross domestic product. This explains
the fact that growth rates of the State‟s economy in recent years have been limited in
comparison to previous periods when no disasters of the same magnitude occurred.
Natural Disasters are also a causal factor for the wide ranges in the rates of
development for the State that have occurred in the past. In addition, the comparison
indirectly shows a silent deterioration of living standards of the affected population –
especially so in the case of the poorest population strata, instead of the improvement
that the State‟s efforts could have produced. Finally, the State‟s fiscal budget must
have accumulated enormous amounts of deficit due to the increased outlays for relief,
reconstruction and recovery, and to decreased revenues due to lower taxation on low
production.


1.2 The need for a Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology

The above preliminary conclusions, together with the extremely high and visible impact
of the earthquake in 2001, point out to the need to undertake risk management
activities in the State of Gujarat in order to reduce damage and losses to more
acceptable levels, thus ensuring improving living conditions to the population and
sustainable economic growth. State authorities are already convinced of this need
and, with the financial support of the World Bank, the Gujarat State Disaster
Management Authority (GSDMA) has initiated a number of technical cooperation
projects to strengthen the functions of the disaster management institutions in the state
to take charge of this endeavor.

The methodology, providing for Damage and Losses Assessment is an essential tool in
the decision making process of defining and assigning priorities for reconstruction plans
and programs3. This tool should be as comprehensive as possible, encompassing all
possible damage to physical assets and economic losses. It should provide a uniform
procedure and baseline for assessing damages to all potentially affected sectors,
including those of the private sector. It should also provide the means to estimate the
resulting losses of all social and productive sectors, lifeline services and the
environment. Ideally, it should also enable to ascertain the effects of disasters at
different geographical and political levels and on specific population groups,
especially the most vulnerable ones. This will result in improved capacity of the state to
demonstrate the negative impacts of disasters on the economy and development of
the State, and to argue the case for undertaking risk reduction strategies for mitigating
further damages and losses (i.e. to advocate disaster-resilient development).

The existing framework and methods used by the State Revenue Department can
provide inputs to such comprehensive type of assessment. While it serves – opportunely
and efficiently – its intended purpose of obtaining a first appraisal of damages in the
public sector and agricultural production losses in the private sector, for the purpose of
defining assistance to the most affected people, it lacks the required coverage and
consistency of data for disaster risk management. The Revenue Department‟s work
and methodology for „relief needs‟ assessment is to be commended, reinforced and
continued, but it should be supplemented with methodologies and procedures for

3Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, (Four Volumes),
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago and Mexico City, 2 nd
Edition, 2003.
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                                          Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


comprehensive damage and loss assessment to encompass the entire society and
economy of the State.


1.3 Damage and Loss Assessment Methodologies and their use in other contexts

There exist in other areas of the world such comprehensive methodologies for damage
and loss assessment that have proven effective as tools for risk management. One
such case is that of the methodology developed – and used for the past thirty years –
by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
(ECLAC), which is able to provide detailed assessments of direct damages to physical
assets of all affected sectors, including the privately owned ones, and the
corresponding economic losses arising from such damages4.

It has been used extensively in the Latin America and Caribbean region for defining
both reconstruction and risk management requirements. Its use has provided the basis
for affected countries to obtain adequate financial resources from the international
community for the purpose of reconstruction. In addition, it has provided the
quantitative basis for the recent adoption of a strategic framework for disaster
reduction and mitigation in Central America. Use can be made advantageously of this
and other similar tools for a speedy adaptation to the specific conditions of the State
of Gujarat. In fact, the assessment of damages and reconstruction needs in the 2001
earthquake in Gujarat, undertaken by the World Bank and the Asian Development
Bank, made use of the ECLAC methodology for loss assessment purposes.

In a workshop on „Reconstruction Needs Analysis, Planning and Implementation‟
organized in August 2002 in Bangkok by the World Bank Disaster Management Faculty,
Provention Consortium and ADPC, the ECLAC methodology for assessing losses was
disseminated widely to an Asian audience, during which it was decided that the
methodology be promoted in Asia and used in various local context. This year, in
addition to the DaLA project of GSDMA, two other projects are being implemented
using the ECLAC methodology. UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP), under its project with UNDP for Socio-Economic Assessment of Disasters
will introduce the ECLAC methodology into the region and adapt it to the Asia-Pacific
context, as required. Separately, under an initiative of the World Bank Institute, training
on use of ECLAC methodology for estimating socio-economic and environmental
effects of disasters, is to be conducted in the Philippines. The Gujarat DaLA study will
also harmonize with these projects and thus contribute to the larger objective of
bringing and adapting the ECLAC methodology to the region.




4Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, (Four Volumes),
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago and Mexico City, 2 nd
Edition, 2003.
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                                               Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology



2. O B J EC T IV ES   OF TH E   A SSI G N ME N T

The scope of this technical cooperation project, described in this Inception Report, is
the development of a comprehensive system of damage and loss assessment for the
State of Gujarat.

Overall Objective of the Study: The over-all objective of the assignment will be to assist
the authorities in State of Gujarat in the setting up of a comprehensive disaster
damage and loss assessment system, through the improvement and expansion of
existing mechanisms, and to provide initial steps towards its implementation through
capacity building.

Three specific objectives of the assignment are as follows:
       Following the occurrence of disaster, to devise a methodology for the
        systematic and consistent assessment and collection of data on the damage
        caused to physical structures, infrastructure, the environment and social and
        economic systems from which an accurate assessment of financial losses can
        be determined;
       To develop a methodology for the assessment of financial losses derived from
        damage identified;
       To develop an integrated post-disaster reporting format covering damage and
        loss assessment (i.e. for rapid, interim and detailed reports) along with a
        comprehensive training package targeted to building the capacity of key,
        identified experts and officials from the State.

The above objectives will be met through the following key activities (see Figure
below):
Activity 1: Institutional Mechanisms and Training Needs for Damage and Loss
Assessment

    Review existing procedures for damage and loss assessment in the State of Gujarat, in both
    their technical and substantive content particularly in the institutional framework in which
    they are undertaken at the present time, to determine suitability to adaptation and
    improvement;

    To standardize and suggest improvements to the institutional mechanism for disaster
    damage and loss assessment in the State of Gujarat, in which the following levels of
    government participate: State Government, District administration, Urban local bodies,
    Panchayat institutions, Indian Government entities located in Gujarat, private sector
    leaders and individual professionals and experts.

Activity 2: Improving Methodology for Damage Assessment

    To improve and expand the existing methodology for the systematic, consistent and
    comprehensive assessment, and for the required collection of data, of physical destruction
    and damages caused by disasters to infrastructure and the social, economic and
    environmental systems, from which an accurate assessment of financial losses can be
    undertaken at a later stage;
Activity 3: Developing Methodology for Loss Assessment


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                                           Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


    To develop a methodology for the evaluation of monetary losses to economic flows arising
    from the direct damages caused by disasters in the social, economic and environment
    sectors, based on the assessment of direct damages described above

Activity 4: Capacity Building for Damage and Loss Assessment

    To develop a training curriculum for assessment of damage and losses following disasters
    using methodologies developed under Activities 2 and 3 and a strategy for regular delivery
    of training to the recipients as identified based on Activity 1.

Based on the above 4 activities, an integrated post-disaster reporting format to describe
damage and loss assessments – to be used in rapid, initial, interim and final reports – together
with a comprehensive training package for building the capacity of key experts and officials
from the State in the utilization of the methodology and formats will be produced.


                                       Figure 1: Activity Chart


             Activity 1: Institutional Mechanisms and Training Needs for
             Damage and Loss Assessment
                 Review of existing institutional mechanism for DaLA
                 Proposal for improved damage and loss assessment system
                 Capacity Building Program Design


             Activity 2: Improving Methodology for Damage Assessment
                 Assessment of damaged building and infrastructure safety
                 Valuation criteria for different types of damage assessment
                 Developing a damage assessment methodology


             Activity 3: Developing Methodology for Loss Assessment
                 Analysis of existing mechanisms and formats
                 Developing a methodology for Loss Assessment




              Activity 4:    Capacity    Building   for   Damage      and       Loss
              Assessment
                 Training strategy
                 Training courses




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                                                  Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology



3. S C O PE       OF   W OR K   IN THE   A S SI G NM E NT

3.1 Basic assumptions

There are four basic assumptions involved in the assignment.

      First, that the damage and loss assessments will be used in the State of Gujarat
       for both ascertaining the total extent of effects of disasters and to determine the
       financial requirements for rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery, the costs
       of relief.

      Second, that the standards of safety against which damaged physical assets will
       be assessed to determine their continued use will have to be determined at the
       early stages of the development of damage assessment methodology.

      Third, that the methodology that is to be devised will have to be used in
       conducting of rapid, interim and final assessments and in the preparation of
       their respective reports, for which only the degree of precision of estimates will
       vary.

      And, finally, that the methodology will have to be able to ascertain damage
       and losses at different geographical levels and sectors, such as State, District,
       Taluka or even village levels.

This methodology is a tool for determining rehabilitation and reconstruction needs as
described on page 5, and NOT aimed at defining relief/humanitarian assistance
needs. An entirely separate, simpler and much quicker methodology is required for
assessing and costing relief needs during the humanitarian assistance stage; this
methodology is not proposed to be addressed in the course of this study.



3.2 Scope of the DALA methodology

The methodology to be prepared by the consultants under the assignment shall
include provisions for estimating damage and losses caused by the main types of
hazards that affect the State of Gujarat and is primarily focused on drought, floods,
cyclones and earthquakes.

Furthermore, the methodology will provide for the assessment of all damages of
physical assets and all losses in economic flows to the following sectors, both public
and private, which have been defined as being prone to the effects of disasters. The
following list is based on the events that have occurred in the last ten years and as
recorded in the Relief Memoranda prepared by the State of Gujarat Revenue
Department (See table 2):
              -        Housing
              -        Health
              -        Education
              -        Agriculture and forests
              -        Livestock
              -        Fisheries
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                                           Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


             -   Industry
             -   Water supply and storage
             -   Sewerage and storm water drainage networks
             -   Telecommunications
             -   Electricity
             -   Road transport
             -   Rail transport
             -   Ports and airports
             -   Fire and Police stations and other social amenities
             -   Irrigation dams and channels

In addition the following sectors are to be included due to the fact that the terms of
reference for the assignment so require it and/or because the ECLAC methodology
recommends its inclusion due to the very high probability of their sustaining significant
damage in cases of the type of disasters that affect the State of Gujarat:
             -   Trade and commerce
             -   Environment
The above listing is prepared based on several documents referred to during the
Inception mission as well as meetings held with different counterpart government
department. A list of documents referred and a list of contacts established is provided
as annex.


     Table 2: Social and Economic Sectors having had damage and losses as revealed in
    the State of Gujarat’s Relief Memoranda to Government of India over the last 10 years
                             Drought      Floods     Tropical       Storm      Earthquake
                                                     Cyclone5       Surge6
       Housing                               D            D               D          DL
       Health                                DL           DL              DL         DL
       Education                             DL           DL              DL         DL
       Agriculture                L          DL           DL              DL         D
       Livestock                 DL          DL           DL              DL         D
       Fisheries                                          DL              DL         D
       Industry                  L7          DL           DL              DL         DL
       Mining                                DL           DL                         DL
       Water Supply              L           DL           DL              DL         DL
       Electricity               L8          DL           DL              DL         DL
       Roads / bridges                       DL           DL              DL         DL
       Ports and airports                    DL           DL              DL         DL
       Irrigation Systems        L9          DL           DL              DL         DL
                                  D: Direct Damages; L: Indirect Losses

The above table is derived from Government of Gujarat Relief Memoranda and
identifies all sectors that suffer damage and losses from each type of disaster. It also
serves to indicate that disasters of geological origin (such as an earthquake) cause

5 A tropical cyclone brings about damages similar to floods, plus direct wind damage to structures.
6 Damage and losses located along coastal areas only.
7 Agro-based industry that will not have enough agricultural inputs.
8 Refers to electricity produced by hydropower plants; higher costs of generation in thermal power plants

or imports from other States.
9 Lack of sufficient water impedes or limits operation of systems.

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                                        Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


more direct damages than indirect losses, while the opposite trend is observed in
disasters of hydrometeorological origin (droughts and floods).
Conclusions from the above table:
     -   In droughts, all sectors suffer from indirect losses only, while livestock also has
         direct damages due to the death of cattle;
     -   In floods, all sectors suffer both direct damages and indirect losses, and only
         housing suffers from direct damages exclusively;
     -   In tropical cyclones and storm surges, the effects are very similar to the ones for
         floods;
     -   In earthquakes, nearly all sectors suffer both damage and losses, except those
         of agriculture; livestock and fisheries that only sustain direct damages (in other
         words there is no effect on their production).

3.3 Conceptual framework of the DALA methodology

The damage and loss assessment methodology to be developed is based on a
conceptual framework proposed circa 1975 by the United Nations, and developed
further by ECLAC since then. The methodology rests on the identification and
quantification of three types of effects: direct damages, indirect losses and macro-
economic effects.10

In its simplest terms, direct damages are the effects on assets; indirect losses are any
modifications to the flow for the production of goods and services; and macro-
economic effects are those on the performance of the main macro-economic
aggregates of the affected area as well as the effects on the living conditions of the
population.

Direct damages occur at the time of the disaster or within a short time from it, usually a
few hours only. Indirect losses, on the other hand, are changes in economic flows for
the production and provision of goods and services in the sectors affected by the
disaster; these occur over a period of several months and even years after the disaster
has struck, depending on the time required to achieve “normalization” of activities.
Macro-economic effects also occur during similar post-disaster periods.

During sudden disasters such as earthquakes or flash floods direct damages are
evident from the outset; and indirect losses occur afterward due to the damage to the
production sectors and to basic services or lifelines. In slowly evolving disasters, such as
a drought, losses of production occur over time – especially in the agriculture sector –
and very little, if any, direct damages result except when cattle die from lack of water
or food. Thus, in these cases, most losses will be indirect owing to the impact on
economic flows, and they will occur for at least as long as the causing phenomena
lasts.

During the initial rapid assessment after a disaster occurs, direct damages are self
evident to the appraiser and the evaluation can proceed in a relatively straightforward
manner at the time. The same cannot be said about a disaster‟s indirect losses, as they
will only become apparent after a certain time has elapsed and will only disappear

10 A more detailed description of this conceptual framework may be found in Section I of the ECLAC
Handbook, Op. Cit., Volume I.
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                                             Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


when “normalization” has been reached, usually months or even years after the
disaster struck, as mentioned earlier.

The first two types of effects – direct damages and indirect losses – can be added
together to obtain the total amount of effects, provided that it is indicated that the
result includes both assets and economic flows. The macro-economic effects,
however, represent an entirely different view of the assessment, since they describe –
on the one hand – the effects of the disaster on the functioning of the economy and
the resulting macroeconomic imbalances arising from the event, and – on the other
hand – the longer lasting effects on social well being and living conditions of the
affected population. Macro-economic effects may not be validly added to the direct
damages and indirect losses, since that would result in double accounting.



3.3.1 Direct damages

Direct damages (total or partial destruction) may be inflicted on immovable assets and
on stocks11, including final goods, goods in process, raw materials, and spare parts.
These effects occur right at the time of the actual disaster.

Main items to be evaluated in this category of effects include total or partial
destruction of physical infrastructure, buildings, installations, machinery, equipment,
means of transportation and storage, furniture, damage and loss of farmland, irrigation
works, reservoirs and the like. In the agricultural sector the destruction of crops or
plantations that are ready for harvesting or collection, and the loss of cattle stock must
be included as direct damage.

Public and privately owned property are subjected to direct damage, and both must
be evaluated and accounted for separately, since this information will be of use to
determine the amount of government and private sector‟s efforts in reconstruction.

When estimating direct damages, efforts are to be made to estimate the cost of
building or equipment components that are not produced locally in the affected
community or in the State, in order to be able to later on ascertain the effect on the
balance of trade and payments as part of the macroeconomic analysis.

In addition, the appraiser of direct damages must be able to determine or estimate –
to the best of his abilities – the period required for the reconstruction or repair of the
destroyed or damaged assets, since this information will be an input required by the
persons conducting the assessment of indirect losses and macroeconomic effects.



3.3.2 Indirect losses

This effect refers to the flows of goods and services – measured in current monetary
values – that will not be produced or rendered over a time span that begins after the


11 Owners of enterprises and entrepreneurs tend to count losses of realizable assets – such as destroyed
accounts receivable that will not be collected due to the disaster – as direct losses. This is to be avoided
since, from a macroeconomic point of view, such losses should not be included because if said collections
did take place they would represent an inter-sectorial transfer of revenue and including them would be
double accounting.
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                                            Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


disaster occurred, and that may extend throughout the entire rehabilitation and
reconstruction periods. While there are cases of disasters when these losses occur over
a few months only, there exist others in which these effects last over several years, as
required for the achievement of recovery.

Indirect losses result from the direct damage to production capacity and social and
economic infrastructure. They also include disaster-induced increases in current
expenditures and in costs for the provision of essential services or lifelines, as well as
diminished expected revenues in same, until normal operating conditions are restored.
These indirect losses will in turn be reflected in the analysis of macroeconomic effects.
Some examples of these indirect losses are those of future harvests due to floods or
droughts, losses in industrial production due to damage to factories or scarcity of raw
materials, and greater transport costs due to the need to utilize alternatives routes or
modes of transportation that imply longer or lower quality and more expensive options.



3.3.3 Macroeconomic effects

These effects reflect the way in which the disaster modifies expected performance of
the main economic variables of the affected area. Since they represent the
repercussions of direct damages and indirect losses, macroeconomic effects may not
be added to the total amount of effects. Instead, macroeconomic effects estimates
are a complementary manner to assess damage and losses from a different
perspective. Macroeconomic effects are usually estimated for a national economy as
a whole; however, they may be estimated for smaller political areas such as a State,
Province or municipality, provided that the necessary information is available.

The most important macroeconomic effects to measure are those that have a bearing
on the growth of the gross domestic product and of sectoral production, the current
account balance (of trade and external exchange), the indebtedness and monetary
reserves position, and on public finances and gross investment. The effects on price
increases and inflation, employment and family income, changes in sovereign debt
ratings, liquidity and domestic interest rates are also to be included.12

3.4 Study Outputs

There will be three distinct direct study outputs produced by the consultants, as follows
(see figures 1 and 2):

        The comprehensive disaster damage and loss assessment methodology will
         have been completed in handbook form, peer reviewed and tested (if
         possible);

        The disaster damage and loss assessment team of specialists for Gujarat State
         will have been identified and trained; and

        The training strategy and curriculum will have been developed and transferred
         to the Gujarat State authorities.



12In the case of the State of Gujarat, there are no statistics kept on the current account balance of trade
and external exchange, nor on indebtedness and monetary reserves or gross investment.
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                                       Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


3.5 Expected Developmental Outcomes resulting from Study

The study and its outputs will serve to advance three additional disaster management
related outcomes, as follows:

      Improved ability of Gujarat Government and local bodies

           -   To estimate rehabilitation and reconstruction financial requirements and
               to mobilize grants and loans for the same, and

           -   To recover costs incurred in providing relief assistance

      Improved ability for delivery of assistance to affected population based on
       scientifically-based damage and loss assessments;

      Improved capacity to demonstrate the negative impacts of disasters on the
       economy and development of the State, and to argue the case for undertaking
       damage mitigation and vulnerability reduction (i.e. to advocate disaster-resilient
       development).




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                                                 Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology



4. A C TI V IT IE S   AND   O U T P U T D EL IV ER Y S C H E DU L E

As indicated in the original terms of reference, the intended duration of the study is 9
months, beginning from 20 January 2004. The schedule and delivery of outputs for the
Study as presented in the original terms of reference has been slightly modified on the
basis of the initial discussions during the start up mission.

The main activities identified for the study are as follows:
        Institutional mechanisms for damage and loss assessment;
        Improving damage assessment methodology;
        Development of loss assessment methodology, and
        Capacity building of institutional mechanism

An inception visit of team members (Roberto Jovel, Loy Rego, Utpal Sharma and
Devanshu Pandit) has already been undertaken during 9-20 February and discussions
held with GSDMA and various concerned line agencies i.e. Revenue Department,
Roads and Buildings in the government and several other stakeholders.

The proposed schedule of activities and delivery of outputs for each component is
described heretofore.

4.1 Institutional Mechanism for Damage and Loss Assessments

This study component in fact will allow the review of the mechanism of damage and
loss assessments as it exists now in the State of Gujarat and the formulation of a
proposal for its strengthening and improvement, while identifying training needs of this
mechanism.


4.1.1 Review of the existing damage and loss assessment mechanism

The Consultants shall review the existing mechanism and methods for disaster
management in terms of assessment of building safety, damage assessment including
needs for repairs, retrofitting and reconstruction. It will be conducted for all potentially
affected sectors as described in the previous section of this inception report, and will
refer to the different levels and institutions of government – including State
Government, District and Panchayat – and to selected private sector institutions that
may undertake any disaster-related activities.

The review should provide a clear picture of the following:
-   Who does what and how in the subject of damage and loss assessment,
-   The strengths and weaknesses of the institutions and NGOs involved therein, and
-   Identify gaps in the process of damage and loss assessment.

In particular, the review will document with reference to the 2001 earthquake, the
stages in which assessments were done, scales of manpower deployed, formats used
and how rapid and large-scale training of these teams was done.

During the Inception mission of the consultants, in discussions with line departments, it
was confirmed that majority of assessment for physical infrastructure is made through
engineers of the State Roads and Buildings department. Also engineers of sectoral
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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


departments do independent sectoral assessment. It was confirmed that the engineers
are normally trained at the State Staff Training Institute, but detailed training for
Damage Assessment is often not adequately emphasized. A more detailed assessment
on the existing mechanism and current systems for training is required to understand
gaps and needs.



4.1.2 Proposal for improved damage and loss assessment mechanism

On the basis of the above, and of interviews with key informants from counterpart
Government departments and other organizations, a proposal for a revised
mechanism of damage and loss assessment will be prepared. This review will
document the different types of assessments normally undertaken after disasters occur,
the list of sectors to be evaluated for damage and losses after each type of disaster,
the departments responsible for the assessment and the assessors required therein. It
will address issues related to the baseline data that is required for each assessment, the
methodological tools and forms to be used in each type of assessment, and the
professional and technical specialists required to undertake each type of assessment,
including the requirements for engaging of outside expertise when deemed necessary.
Based on this review, specific training needs of personnel in the proposed institutional
mechanism will be defined.



4.1.3 Identification and involvement with counterpart agencies
While identifying existing mechanisms and proposing strengthened mechanisms and
improved methodologies, it is crucial to identify and involve counterpart staff from key
line departments. These agencies form an integral part of the enhanced mechanism
whose capacity is sought to be built through this assignment. As discussed at the
negotiation meeting in November 03 and in the Inception meeting in February 04, the
study would greatly benefit from full involvement of counterpart agencies. It is
therefore requested that at least one staff who is expected to be involved on a
continuing basis in DaLA be associated with the study team on a part-time basis (50%)
from the following 4 departments:
   1)   Relief Commissioner‟s office
   2)   Roads and Buildings, Chief Engineer‟s office
   3)   Department of Economics and Statistics
   4)   Planning Dept


4.1.4 Capacity building program design

A program of capacity building through training of key officials and personnel of the
public sector, and also representative of selected private sector entities, is to be
formulated. For it, surveys of existing target audiences for damage and loss assessment
training – engineers, planners, economists and other professionals and administrative
persons from State Government, District and Panchayat institutions as well as from




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                                          Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


academic circles and private enterprises13 – are to be carried out, and review of
current training facilities and current courses will be conducted.

Completion of this institutional diagnosis and proposal and the training needs analysis
will be achieved by the end of the third month of the study‟s lifespan; i.e. in Mid May
2004, for which a report will be submitted to GSDMA.



4.2 Damage Assessment Methodology
     The scope includes the development of accurate methodologies for damage
     assessment, to take into account the different hazards to which physical, social,
     economic and environmental assets of the state are exposed, the different
     categories of damage and variations in built-form in Gujarat.

The Damage Assessment Methodology activity will therefore involve the following:
     -   Development of damage assessment techniques, methodologies and formats
         amounting to best practice for the State of Gujarat;
     -   Establishing data collection requirements (potential/actual) and formats for
         damage assessment consistent with the needs of the State in reconstruction and
         the provision of assistance;
     -   Devise appropriate procedures and templates for damage assessment that will
         facilitate the implementation of both rapid responses and long-term
         reconstruction;
     -   Advise on the IT requirement for damage assessment and its integration with
         other IT components of the disaster management programme.

This methodology will be based on the analysis under Activity one and further
specifications of methodologies in use in the state and best practices worldwide. The
purpose of this activity will be:

The consultants will also provide a framework for 3 phases of damage assessment as
follows:
        Rapid
        Interim and
        Detailed

Scope of each kind of assessment, in terms of time frame of implementation, the
purposes, degree of accuracy and detail and usability and expertise required for each
type of assessment will be described.



4.2.1 Analysis of existing mechanisms and formats
A review will be made of existing mechanisms, structures and methods of damage
assessment in the State of Gujarat. In this regard, due consideration will be given to the

13 These should include inter alia professionals and technicians presently involved in the Revenue
Department‟s scheme for relief assessment as well as others that would be required to make damage and
loss assessments in other sectors and areas not presently covered.
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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


existing methodology used by the State Revenue Department for estimating needs for
relief and recovery or for mitigating damage as in the case of slow-onset hazards.
Reference will be made to formats/methodology described in the GRs, based on
which the Revenue department gets surveys and information on damage at local level
from local level engineers. Methodology used at the time of the 2001 earthquake and
during cyclones and droughts prior to that, over the past decade, will be studied. A
sample of some such assessment formats used in the 2001 earthquake are:
   Rapid Assessment of Damage to Buildings Affected by Kachchh Earthquake of 26th
    January 2001, prepared for Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council
    (BMTPC), TARU Leading Edge, April 2001
   Rapid Assessment of Damage to Buildings in Ahmedabad by Gujarat Earthquake,
    prepared by Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology, February 2001
Subsequent to the earthquake formats for assessing vulnerability / potential damage in
buildings lying under different seismic zones has also been developed, which will be
referred. These are:
   Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings in Various Seismic Zones in India by Dr. Anand S.
    Arya, Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Program, GoI-UNDP, November
    2003
   Rapid Visual Screening of Indian Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards, by Indian
    Institute of Technology, Bombay, Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction
    Program, GoI-UNDP, 2003


4.2.2 Initial Assessment of damaged building and infrastructure for safety/usability

Special emphasis will be made to the initial assessment of damaged buildings, both
public and private housing. The objective of such assessment shall be to provide
technical opinions regarding condition of buildings, whether the same are safe or
unsafe for occupancy. Criteria for assessing the safety of damaged buildings are to be
standardized on the basis of a review of existing experience in other locations and
countries, and also considering on the occupation of each damaged building.

While this subject should be applied to buildings of other affected sectors (such as
government service buildings of water supply, electricity, telecommunications, ports
and airports, etcetera, as well as others in the private domain) as well, the current study
will cover only formats for assessment of public and private housing and critical
physical assets such as hospitals and schools. The methodology of work for assessing
building safety in other sectors would be the same in scope, however, and only
specificities to the different structural designs would have to be added to transform it
at a later stage. The methodology will include a synthesis of international and national
experiences in damage assessment as listed partially under 4.2.1 and 4.2.4, highlighting
damage indicators to guide technical persons and community members in
determining safe occupancy, structural resilience, repair and retrofit requirements.



4.2.3 Valuation criteria for varying extent of damage and recommended actions

Taking into consideration that there exist different types and levels of requirements in
the evaluation of damages depending on their intended utilization, time frame, and

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                                         Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


accuracy, valuation criteria, damage categories and recommendations for repair,
retrofit or demolition are to be developed for attending to each case of evaluation in
the sectors likely to be affected. Valuation criteria for determining the present value of
depreciated assets, the replacement cost of destroyed assets, and their reconstruction
or rehabilitation under disaster mitigation schemes to eliminate or reduce damage
from future events, are to be determined. It is also recognized that Damage and
replacement cost estimates will need to be different for urban and rural areas.

The Consultants will plan to complete this activity by end May 2004, and the report on
this will be included with the overall report on Damage Assessment, to be submitted to
GSDMA in June 2004.



4.2.4 Damage assessment methodology

The methodology for damage assessment to be developed will involve an analysis of
the applicability of several models to define the best and most appropriate one for
Gujarat context. A review will be made of existing mechanisms, structures and
methods of damage assessment in the State of Gujarat under 4.2.1. International and
national knowledge and scientific understanding of damage assessment techniques,
methodologies and formats will be reviewed for use in the Gujarat situation and
context. A partial listing of those methodologies follows:
    ATC-20-1, Field Manual: Post-earthquake Safety Evaluation of Buildings, by Applied
     Technology Council, California, 1989

    Damage Assessment Guide and Proformas for Detailed Scientific Assessment of
     Damage for Repair, Retrofitting, reconstruction needs and for estimating realistic
     loss, by Dr. Anand S. Arya, for Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, under the ADB
     Funded Technical Assistance to Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal, India, 2002

Parallel activities include the definition of an information baseline on the technical
characteristics and specifications of existing building assets in the potentially affected
sectors, and the preparation of a damage classification system for each type of
hazard. This will be followed by the definition of procedures for the surveying of specific
assets in each sector and the preparation of individual forms and technical guidelines
for their use in the field.
The consultants will explore the applicability for use of HAZUS methodology for damage
estimation in Gujarat. HAZUS is a risk assessment software program for analyzing
potential losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricane winds14. In HAZUS-MH, current
scientific and engineering knowledge is coupled with the latest Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) technology to produce estimates of hazard related damage
before, or after, a disaster occurs. HAZUS-MH takes into account various impacts of a
hazard event such as
     -   Physical damage: damage to residential and commercial buildings, schools,
         critical facilities, and infrastructure;
     -   Economic loss: lost jobs, business interruptions, repair and reconstruction costs;
         and


14http://www.fema.gov/hazus/ as on February 27, 2004
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                                      Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


   -   Social impacts: impacts to people, including requirements for shelters and
       medical aid.

The consultants will also highlight the IT/data requirements should this methodology be
found useful in the Gujarat context.

The Consultants will deliver to GSDMA, the report on Damage Assessment
methodology, on the dates mentioned earlier, containing the following components:

      Requirements of baseline information on buildings of sectors likely to be affected
       for each type of hazard;

      Damage classification system (that reflects the diversity of hazard impacts and
       provides recommendations for returning to original structural resilience)

      Forms for analysis of damage in individual buildings and sector accumulation;
       and

      Technical guidelines for their field application.



4.3 Loss Assessment Methodology

Following a detailed assessment of damage, expression of the same into financial
losses is critical to effective plan reconstruction, for which a well-developed,
comprehensive and systematic loss assessment methodology is required. A review of
existing mechanisms, structures and methods of loss assessment in Gujarat would have
been done under Activity 1. Following this, Loss Assessment methodology would
require:

      Developing loss assessment techniques, methodologies and formats amounting
       to best practice for the state of Gujarat;

      Establishing clear data collection requirements and formats for loss assessment
       consistent with the needs of the State in reconstruction and the provision of
       assistance;

      Devising appropriate procedures and templates for loss assessment that will
       facilitate the implementation of both rapid responses and long-term
       reconstruction;

      Advising on the IT requirement for loss assessment and its integration with other IT
       components of the disaster management programme, including damage
       assessment.

The methodology for loss assessment to be defined for the State of Gujarat is to be
based on the adaptation to local conditions of the UN-ECLAC Handbook. Due
consideration will be given to the existing procedures for relief assessments made by
Gujarat State authorities at the present time. In fact, in past instances of disasters of
hydro-meteorological origin – caused by natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding
and drought – the State of Gujarat has been able to make estimates of agricultural

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                                         Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


production and other output losses15. The institutional framework and technical
procedures used therein – as described in The Gujarat Relief Manual16 – would be
given full consideration. However, since disasters may affect other productive activities
and essential services, incorporation of the institutions that deal with them would be
required (See Table 3, where a listing of potentially affected sectors depending on
type of disaster is included).

The study recognizes the need of the State Government to have access to damage
and loss assessment data in different formats.    Consequently, the scope and
presentation of the methodology will:

        Be assembled in a way that it can provide damage information and loss figures
         according to the affected sector,

        Assist users to put values for requesting and assigning funding, to prioritize repair
         and rehabilitation and to achieve short, medium and long-term objectives;

        Be such that a trained cost professional can assign repair costs consistent with
         local conditions; these costs will be the direct costs of repair plus any
         depreciation of the asset consequent on the damage incurred;

        Be such that it can identify occasions when extra costs will accrue if the
         damage is not repaired immediately;

        Be such that the methodologies include the calculation and financial
         expression of indirect costs that may be intangible and consequently difficult to
         quantify. These indirect costs will include, for example, costs such as those
         incurred due to the loss of tourism, destruction of ancient monuments, cultural
         assets, environmental degradation, etc.


4.3.1 Analysis of existing mechanisms and formats
Meetings will be held with appropriate officials of the list of State Government
organizations and selected District level offices, shown in Table 3 in order to ascertain
the procedures that are being used at the present time for the assessment of disaster
losses.
Analyses of these procedures, where existing, will reveal where modifications and
improvements must be introduced to existing loss assessment schemes. For the cases of
agriculture, animal husbandry and irrigation, the System of Intelligence provided for in
the Gujarat Relief Manual is to be reviewed thoroughly in order to build upon it and to
possibly expand it to cover other sectors and activities. It is possible that some
institutions and sectors do not have any previous on-hand experience on loss
assessment, because they may not have required similar assessments in the past, and
this will be duly noted and taken into consideration.




15 Examples of this can be found in the Memoranda on Damages caused by droughts, floods and
cyclones as prepared by the Revenue Department of Gujarat and submitted to the Government of India
in order to obtain relief assistance.
16 Revenue Department, The Gujarat Relief Manual, Government of Gujarat, Government Printing Press,

1982 (and Reprinted in 1987).
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                                              Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


An examination of existing forms used for estimating losses following disasters is to be
undertaken together with the conceptual framework for loss assessment in each
specific sector. This is to be done at the District level where the basic data for
assessments is collected and at the State level where consolidation of information and
analysis are made.

The table below includes a list of institutions that the consultants will be in touch with
during the study, in order to develop, fine-tune and transfer the DALA methodology.
The first column of table 3 has been derived from the sectors identified under table 2.
The second column was prepared taking information from the Revenue Memoranda
and information from local information sources. This table will serve as the basis for the
work of the consultant team, in both the DA and LA activities, to define the
counterpart organization.


      Table 3: List of sectors and public and leading private institutions – at the State
     Government and District levels – to be included in the analysis and assessment of
                                       indirect losses17
    Sector or sub-sector                           Institutions involved in assessment
General loss assessment           Revenue Department, Relief Commissioner
Agriculture                       Ministry of Agriculture
                                  Directorate of Agriculture
                                  Directorate of Horticulture
                                  Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC)
                                  Warehousing Corporation of India
                                  Food Corporation of India (FCI)
                                  District Agricultural Officers, Local Authorities
Animal husbandry                  Ministry of Agriculture
                                  Directorate of Animal Husbandry
                                  National Dairy Development Board (NDDB)
                                  Local Authorities
Irrigation                        Ministry of Irrigation
                                  Ground Water Resources Development Corporation
                                  Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Limited
                                  Kalpasar Project
Industry                          Department of Industries and Mining
                                  Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation (GIDC)
                                  Gujarat Industrial Investment Corporation (GIIC)
                                  INDEX-b
                                  INDEX-c
                                  Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)
Commerce                          Ministry of Trade and Commerce
                                  Chamber of Commerce
                                  Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)
Housing and human                 Urban Development and Urban Housing Department (UDUH)


17It is to be noted that the project requires to deal with this entire list of sectors and institutions not only
because they are all subject to damage and losses caused by disasters, but also and foremostly because
only by considering them all can the true measure of disaster losses be ascertained and a comprehensive
and all-encompassing reconstruction and recovery strategy and programme can be designed.


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                                          Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


settlements                    Department of Rural Development
                               Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC)
                               Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA)
                               Other Local Authorities
Public buildings               Department of Roads and Buildings
                               Public Works Department (PWD)
                               Local Authorities
Education and culture          Department of Education
                               Directorate of Primary Education Program (DPEP)
                               Local Authorities
Health                         Department of Health
                               Department of Rural Development
Water supply                   Department of Water Resources
                               Gujarat Water Supply and Services Board
                               Ground Water Resources Development Corporation
                               Gujarat Water Infrastructure Limited
                               Sardar Sarovar and Narmada Nigam Limited
                               Other enterprises for water supply and Local Authorities
Electricity                    Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB)
                               Ahmedabad Electricity Company (AEC)
                               Gujarat Energy Research Institute (GERI)
Road transport                 Ministry of Surface Transport
                               Road and Buildings Department
                               Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation (GSRTC)
                               Local Authorities
Railroad transport             Department of Railways, GOI
Ports and airports             Port Authority/Airport Authority, GOI
Environment                    Department of Environment and Forests
Economic      statistics   and Department of Economics and Statistics
planning



4.3.2 Methodology Development for Loss Assessment
Based on the above, and taking into consideration the requirements of the loss
assessment methodology developed by UN-ECLAC as well as the specific physical,
geographical, social, cultural and economic conditions of the State of Gujarat, a
revised and improved methodology for loss assessments in each of the above listed
sectors, and for all types of disasters, will be developed.
In addition, a set of forms to be used in the collection and processing of data for the
estimation of losses in each individual sector is to be developed.
Special care will be taken by the Consultants in order to ensure that the forms and
procedures for loss assessment follow similar and consistent patterns for all potentially
affected sectors and activities, so that sectoral results may be validly added in order to
obtain total District and State losses.

It is to be noted that the above should enable the State of Gujarat to be able to arrive
at more comprehensive estimates of damage and losses following any type of disaster.
In turn, these improved estimates will be a valuable tool for ensuring more realistic and
opportune Government of India relief funding, as well as facilitating international
cooperation for reconstruction and recovery programs.
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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


The Consultants will prepare, and deliver to GSDMA at the end of August 2004, a report
describing the proposed methodology – including procedures and forms – for loss
assessment.



4.4 Capacity Building for Damage and Loss Assessment

Once the previous study components are completed, the actual phase of capacity
building for damage and loss assessment will be undertaken. Capacity Building entails
the following:

      Preparing training modules appropriate to the training needs identified for the
       compilation of accurate and comprehensive damage and loss assessment
       data and information that are consistent with the experience of the officials
       trained and the structures of the organisations and agencies, and to make
       recommendations on the type of training to be given, its frequency and
       duration, etc);

      Preparing training modules for those identified as being responsible for initial
       rapid assessments following disaster related to providing familiarity with
       information collection and reporting formats and the certifying of the safety of
       buildings for re-occupancy post-disaster;

      Developing a comprehensive training package, to include consideration of the
       institutionalisation of training within a recognized and appropriate training
       facility in Gujarat, and advise on the resources and staff required to facilitate
       such a package;

      Raising awareness for selected officials and personnel not directly involved in
       the implementation of damage and loss assessment but who have
       responsibilities for then implementation of overall disaster management, such as
       the staff of GSDMA;

      Implementing and evaluating pilot training courses in both initial post-disaster
       rapid damage and loss assessment practice and in the more comprehensive
       and accurate assessment of damage and loss consistent with the needs of
       longer-term rehabilitation and reconstruction involving key government officials
       and personnel likely to be involved in future assessment activity.


4.4.1 Training Strategy

A training strategy will be developed that includes the definition of target audiences,
for the transfer of the damage and loss assessment methodology to State, District and
Panchayat officials and to interested private sector representatives as well. The
curricula for two, non-simultaneous pilot training courses on damage and loss
assessments will be defined. The possible association with established training
institutions will be examined and defined, so that sustainability in the training can be
ensured beyond the life of this study. Our preliminary discussions identify the R&B
department‟s Engineering Staff Training Institute as one potential home of the training.



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                                      Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


4.4.2 Training Courses

Two pilot training courses, possibly divided into one on damage and the other one on
loss assessments, will be undertaken for the transfer of the methodology. State, District
and Panchayat officials and private sector representatives will be invited to attend.
Engineers, planners, economists, administrators and people from other disciplines are to
be included in the training. To the extent possible, the counterpart local institution will
be involved in training to ensure a greater sense of ownership in the transfer.

Once the two training courses are completed, analyses are to be made of their
performance in order to propose improvements on training strategy and curriculum for
utilization in future courses.

In addition to the above, an orientation seminar for key decision makers on the
potential use and benefits of the damage and loss assessment methodology is to be
conducted. Potential invitees to this seminar are to be selected in close consultation
with GSDMA.

The following products for this study component are to be prepared by the
Consultants:

      Proposed list of government officials – at State, District and Panchayat levels –
       and private sector representatives to participate in training courses for damage
       and loss assessment (Mid August 2004);

      Detailed curricula for damage and loss assessment courses (End August 2004);

      Two non-simultaneous training courses on damage and in loss assessment
       (September 2004);

      Orientation seminar for key decision makers to appraise them of the potential
       benefits and use of the damage and loss assessment methodology (End August
       2004); and

      Report on proposed strategy for future training courses in the damage and loss
       assessment methodology (October 2004).
These will be delivered, tied to the reports as indicated in Figure 2, particularly the
Composite Draft Final Report to be submitted in End September 2004.




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                                                 Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                             Figure 2: Activities versus Outputs/Deliverables

                            A Comprehensive system of damage and loss

      Activity 1:
                                                          of Gujarat.
                                 assessment for the State Activity 3:
                                   Activity 2:                                         Activity 4:
     Institutional                  Improving                Developing            Capacity Building
  Mechanisms and                 Methodology for           Methodology for         for Damage and
Systems for Damage                   Damage                Loss Assessment          Loss Assessment
and Loss Assessment                Assessment

Outputs:                       Outputs:                   Outputs:                Outputs:
 Review of current             Proformas for initial     Review of existing     Curriculum for
  systems                        assessment of              formats for:            courses
 Proposed system                building safety            - State government     Pilot delivery of
 Training Needs                Strategy for survey of       Relief                training
  Analysis                       damage in each               Memorandums          Transfer of ownership
                                 productive sector          - Requesting            to local training
                                Methodology for              international         institute
                                 damage estimation            assistance           Training strategy for
                                Proforma for sectoral     Development of Loss     disseminating
                                 damage assessment          Assessment              methodology
                                 survey                     methodology            Orientation seminar
                                Technical guidelines      Develop loss            for decision makers
                                 for use of formats         assessment formats     Report on potential
                                                            to be used by local     benefits and usages
                                                            bodies                  of revised
                                                                                    methodology

Reports:                       Reports:                   Reports:                Reports:
 Inception Report              Report on Damage          Report on Loss         Report on Training
  (End February „04)             Assessment                 Assessment              modules (End
 Report on institutional        Methodology for            Methodology (End        September ‟04)
  mechanisms and                 Gujarat (End June          August ‟04)            Final Report (End
  systems for DaLA (Mid          ‟04)                      Composite draft         October ‟04)
  May‟04)                                                   final report (End      Report on Pilot
                                                            September ‟04)          courses (End
                                                                                    November ‟04)




4.5 Final report of the study

At the end of the study, a final project performance report is to be prepared by the
Consultants and delivered to GSDMA by end November 2004. It should contain, in
addition, comments and suggestions for the actual implementation of the
comprehensive damage and loss assessment system in the State of Gujarat.




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                                                 Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology



5. D E PL OY ME N T   OF   E X PE R TI SE   B Y TH E   C O NSU L T A NT S

For the execution of the study, the Consultants will deploy a team of professional
experts and support staff that will direct and undertake study activities. They are
indicated in the following tables.


         Table 4: International and national experts and consultants for the study
Name and Position                     Tasks                          Professional Background
                                     Overall direction to the study
Mr. Roberto Jovel     Inception, involvement in all Developed ECLAC Methodology for
Team leader and       components, special emphasis estimating socio-economic and
engineering expert    on     social    sectors, industry, environmental effects of disasters
                      development of formats, delivery Civil Engineering Baccalaureate, 1957-61
                      of training, supervision of reports   Ground Water Hydrology, UN-FAO, 1962-
                                                            1963
                                                            Hydrology and Hydrometeorology, UN-
                                                            WMO, 1967-1968
                                                            Economic Development Analysis and
                                                            Planning, UN-ECLAC, 1971-72

Mr. Aloysius Rego,    Managerial supervision of experts BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical
Deputy team           and project management team, Engg.), 1981
leader and Disaster   lead person for communications Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,
management            with GSDMA, inputs to detailing India –1st Class.
expert                scope of the study for inception Post-graduate DIPLOMA IN INDUSTRIAL
                      report. As DM expert responsible SAFETY, 1984
                      for development of needs Central Labour Institute, Bombay, India
                      assessment formats, inputs into
                      DALA methodology, inputs into
                      institutional analysis and training
                      strategy
                               Institutional Mechanism and training needs
Mr. Roberto Jovel     Inception, involvement in all Developed ECLAC Methodology for
Team leader and       components, special emphasis estimating socio-economic and
engineering expert    on     social      sectors, industry, environmental effects of disasters
                      development of formats, delivery Civil Engineering Baccalaureate, 1957-61
                      of training, supervision of reports     Ground Water Hydrology, UN-FAO, 1962-
                                                              1963
                                                              Hydrology and Hydrometeorology, UN-
                                                              WMO, 1967-1968
                                                              Economic Development Analysis and
                                                              Planning, UN-ECLAC, 1971-72
Mr. Aloysius Rego     Managerial supervision of experts BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical
Deputy team           and project management team, Engg.), 1981
leader and Disaster   lead person for communications Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,
management            with GSDMA, inputs to detailing India –1st Class.
expert                scope of the study for inception Post-graduate DIPLOMA IN INDUSTRIAL
                      report. As DM expert responsible SAFETY, 1984
                      for development of needs Central Labour Institute, Bombay, India
                      assessment formats, inputs into
                      DALA methodology, inputs into
                      institutional analysis and training
                      strategy
Mr. Utpal Sharma      Damage                     assessment PG Diploma in Minimum Cost Housing,
Infrastructure        methodology for housing and School of Architecture, McGill University,
expert                other              built          form, Montreal, Canada (1987)
                      communications, transport and PG Diploma in Urban and Regional
                      other utilities, inputs to all reports  Planning, School of Planning, CEPT,

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                                               Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                                                             Ahmedabad (1983)
                                                             Bachelor of Architecture, University of
                                                             Roorkee(1981)
                                                             Pre-University in Science, Cotton College,
                                                             Guwahati (1976)
Mr. Devanshu            Inputs           to         proposingPGDOM, PGDM DM, Masters of Business
Pandit                  improvements in mechanisms for       Administration 2001
Institutional systems   detailed assessment of damage        M E Civil Engineering 1994
for Damage              to physical and environmental        B E Civil Engineering 1989
Assessment              assets
                                              Damage Assessment
Prof. R. J. Shah        Development of comprehensive
Structural              damage                    assessment
engineering expert      methodology, with emphasis on
                        infrastructure         and       urban
                        construction; inputs to all reports
                        Inputs to developing formats for
                        assessment of structural safety for
                        use of damaged buildings
                        structural safety for financial
                        assistance
Mr. Utpal Sharma        Damage                    assessment PG Diploma in Minimum Cost Housing,
Infrastructure          methodology for housing and School of Architecture, McGill University,
expert                  other              built          form, Montreal, Canada (1987)
                        communications, transport and PG Diploma in Urban and Regional
                        other utilities, inputs to all reports  Planning, School of Planning, CEPT,
                                                                Ahmedabad (1983)
                                                                Bachelor of Architecture, University of
                                                                Roorkee(1981)
                                                                Pre-University in Science, Cotton College,
                                                                Guwahati (1976)
Mr. Devanshu            Inputs           to         proposing PGDOM, PGDM DM, Masters of Business
Pandit                  improvements in mechanisms for Administration 2001
Institutional systems   detailed assessment of damage M E Civil Engineering 1994
for Damage              to physical and environmental B E Civil Engineering 1989
Assessment              assets
Prof. Ravi Sinha,       Review of Damage Assessment Professor in IIT Mumbai, Civil Engineering,
Senior Expert on        formats and methodology                 with    specialization    in   Earthquake
Damage                                                          Engineering
Assessment
                                       Loss Assessment Methodology
Mr. Roberto Jovel       Inception, involvement in all Developed ECLAC Methodology for
Team leader and         components, special emphasis estimating socio-economic and
engineering expert      on     social    sectors, industry, environmental effects of disasters
                        development of formats, delivery Civil Engineering Baccalaureate, 1957-61
                        of training, supervision of reports   Ground Water Hydrology, UN-FAO, 1962-
                                                              1963
                                                              Hydrology and Hydrometeorology, UN-
                                                              WMO, 1967-1968
                                                              Economic Development Analysis and
                                                              Planning, UN-ECLAC, 1971-72
Mr. A.R. Subbiah,       Development of damage and M.Sc. (Bio Sciences) with Agriculture
Agro-economic           loss assessment in the agriculture Entomology, Madurai University, Madurai,
expert                  and          related         sectors; 1974
                        development and delivery of B.Sc. (Bio Sciences), Madurai University,
                        training      module      for    the Madurai 1972
                        agricultural sector, and inputs to Director,      Ministry    of  Environment,
                        relevant reports                      Government of India, 1999
Mr. Ricardo Zapata      Development of loss assessment Degree in International Relations (El
Marti Economic          methodology;        estimation    of Colegio de México, 1967-68), and
expert                  indirect losses for specific sectors Economics with a specialization in
                        (Industry, trade, tourism and Economic              Integration    (Universidad

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                                               Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                      others);       estimation      of         Católica del Perú, 1970-72)
                      macroeconomic             effects;        Chief Economist with ECLAC since 1987
                      delivery of training module on
                      loss assessments; and inputs to
                      relevant reports
Dr. S. S. Mehta       Inputs to existing mechanisms of
Expert on             loss assessment, orientation of
Economics in          loss assessment methodology to
Disasters and         Gujarat context
development
                                           Capacity Building
Mr. Merrick           Development and delivery of          Advanced Diploma in Public Safety –
Chatfield Training    training modules and pilot           Australian School of Emergency
expert                training courses; inputs to reports  Management 2003
                      related to training needs,           Graduate Certificate of Emergency
                      delivery and evaluation              Management (GCEM) – Swinburne
                                                           University, Melbourne, Australia 2002
                                                           Workplace Trainer Category 2 – Kangan
                                                           TAFE (training and further education)
                                                           Institute 1998
                                                           Associate Diploma of Emergency
                                                           Management - University of Tasmania 1995

                                                                Disaster Services Administration Certificate
                                                                – Australian Counter Disaster College 1980

Mr. Aloysius Rego,    Managerial supervision of experts         BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical
Deputy team           and project management team,              Engg.), 1981
leader and Disaster   lead person for communications            Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay,
management            with GSDMA, inputs to detailing           India –1st Class.
expert                scope of the study for inception          Post-graduate DIPLOMA IN INDUSTRIAL
                      report. As DM expert responsible          SAFETY, 1984
                      for development of needs                  Central Labour Institute, Bombay, India
                      assessment formats, inputs into
                      DALA methodology, inputs into
                      institutional analysis and training
                      strategy
Mr. Roberto Jovel     Inception, involvement in all             Developed ECLAC Methodology for
Team leader and       components, special emphasis              estimating socio-economic and
engineering expert    on     social   sectors, industry,        environmental effects of disasters
                      development of formats, delivery          Civil Engineering Baccalaureate, 1957-61
                      of training, supervision of reports       Ground Water Hydrology, UN-FAO, 1962-
                                                                1963
                                                                Hydrology and Hydrometeorology, UN-
                                                                WMO, 1967-1968
                                                                Economic Development Analysis and
                                                                Planning, UN-ECLAC, 1971-72
Prof. R. J. Shah      Development of comprehensive
Structural            damage                    assessment
engineering expert    methodology, with emphasis on
                      infrastructure         and       urban
                      construction; inputs to all reports
                      Inputs to developing formats for
                      assessment of structural safety for
                      use of damaged buildings
                      structural safety for financial
                      assistance
Mr. Utpal Sharma      Damage                    assessment      PG Diploma in Minimum Cost Housing,
Infrastructure        methodology for housing and               School of Architecture, McGill University,
expert                other              built          form,   Montreal, Canada (1987)
                      communications, transport and             PG Diploma in Urban and Regional
                      other utilities, inputs to all reports    Planning, School of Planning, CEPT,

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                                              Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                                                            Ahmedabad (1983)
                                                            Bachelor of Architecture, University of
                                                            Roorkee(1981)
                                                            Pre-University in Science, Cotton College,
                                                            Guwahati (1976)
Mr. Devanshu            Inputs          to        proposing PGDOM, PGDM DM, Masters of Business
Pandit                  improvements in mechanisms for      Administration 2001
Institutional systems   detailed assessment of damage       M E Civil Engineering 1994
for Damage              to physical and environmental       B E Civil Engineering 1989
Assessment              assets
Mr. A.R. Subbiah,       Development of damage and M.Sc. (Bio Sciences) with Agriculture
Agro-economic           loss assessment in the agriculture Entomology, Madurai University, Madurai,
expert                  and          related         sectors; 1974
                        development and delivery of B.Sc. (Bio Sciences), Madurai University,
                        training     module       for    the Madurai 1972
                        agricultural sector, and inputs to Director,     Ministry    of    Environment,
                        relevant reports                      Government of India, 1999
Mr. Ricardo Zapata      Development of loss assessment Degree in International Relations (El
Marti Economic          methodology;         estimation   of Colegio de México, 1967-68), and
expert                  indirect losses for specific sectors Economics with a specialization in
                        (Industry, trade, tourism and Economic             Integration      (Universidad
                        others);         estimation       of Católica del Perú, 1970-72)
                        macroeconomic                effects; Chief Economist with ECLAC since 1987
                        delivery of training module on
                        loss assessments; and inputs to
                        relevant reports
                                        Project Management Support
Mrs. Supriya Mehta      Coordination          of     experts;
Project Manager         preparation of reports; budget
                        and                communications
                        management
Project coordinator     Assistance to project experts in
                        information gathering, linking
                        with field offices
Mr. Ajay Kumar          Research support for damage
Katuri                  assessment methodology
Research Officer
Finance officer         Day to day project finances
Project officer         Support     to    team    leader,
                        consultants       and     project
                        manager,       in   coordination,
                        production of reports, organizing
                        workshops and training courses
Secretary               Office     administration    and
                        secretarial support at Gujarat
                        office




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                                           Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                                              ANNEX
                                     Annex 1: Scope of Services
                   Study on Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology

Immediately after a disaster, damage assessment will be carried out by teams of pre-
identified people who are given “fast track” training using prepared guidelines. The
information collected during this rapid assessment, including the certification of the
safety of existing structures for post-disaster occupancy, can then be quantified as
financial losses and provide guidance for the provision of post-disaster assistance. The
study will provide a methodology for conducting a rapid damage assessment and
preparing a report and for quantifying the information therein.               Similarly, a
methodology is required that extends to interim assessments and reports and final
assessments and reports.

The consultants will develop methodologies based upon up-to-date scientific
knowledge for the assessment of different types of damage in different sectors and the
quantification and expression of damage as financial losses, for each major hazard
that threatens Gujarat. The methodologies will co-ordinate closely with risk assessment
studies also being developed for the State. The damage and loss parameters
identified in risk assessments can provide the foundations for damage and loss
methodologies that will require the following:

       The preparation of damage and loss assessment models for both natural and
        human-made hazards, these hazards to include earthquakes, cyclones, floods,
        droughts, fires, industrial and transport processes and systems and civil strife;

       The recognition that the assessment of damage and the quantification of losses
        will need to be undertaken in respect of all categories, viz:



Physical Assets

BUILDINGS – private dwellings, public and community buildings, industrial premises -
affected by site, design, shape, materials used, construction techniques, level of
maintenance, proximity to other buildings, etc.

INFRASTRUCTURE – transport systems (roads, railways, bridges, airports, port facilities),
utilities (water, sewerage, electricity), and telecommunications;

CRITICAL FACILITIES – hospitals and dispensaries, emergency services, key transport and
communications facilities, essential services and utilities, high occupancy buildings,
dams, cultural heritage sites, etc.

AGRICULTURE – crops in the field and stored, livestock, land, farm implements and
buildings



Social Assets

Lives lost and people injured, livelihoods affected, the position of particularly
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                                      Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


vulnerable groups (single parent families, women, especially those pregnant or
lactating, the mentally and physically handicapped, children, the elderly, etc.), local
institutions, etc.

Poverty will be an issue to take account of in quantifying social losses (financial losses
for the poor may be low but real losses will be high).

Social losses will also be dependent on individual and group risk perceptions, which in
turn will be dependent on such things as the degree of public awareness present and
the frequency of the hazard. Poverty and marginal livelihoods will most likely
contribute to low perceptions of risk.



Economic Assets

DIRECT LOSS POTENTIAL – damage to and destruction of physical and social
infrastructure and its repair and replacement cost, crop damage and losses to the
means of production;

INDIRECT LOSS POTENTIAL – the impact of lost production and employment, vital
services and livelihoods;

SECONDARY EFFECTS – epidemics, inflation, income disparities, isolated communities,
etc.



Environmental Assets

National parks, forests, mountains and ecologically vulnerable locations, watersheds,
flora and fauna, rivers, coastlines, beaches, etc.

Loss estimation can benefit from scenario building based upon previous experiences.

       The recognition of the difference in scale, form and variation of the different
        habitats in Gujarat – the built environment of major towns and cities and smaller
        settlements, the peri-urban environment of less substantial structures and
        populations with cultural and livelihood contact with both rural and urban
        contexts, rural environments (farms, pasture, recreational land, salt works, etc.),
        coastal environments, industrial environments, etc.



Damage Assessment

The scope includes the development of accurate methodologies/models for damage
assessment, to take into account the different hazards to which Gujarat is exposed, the
different categories of damage and loss and variations in habitat in Gujarat, as
mentioned above. The details of the scope are as follows:

       To review existing systems, structures and methods of damage assessment in the
        State of Gujarat;


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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


      To apply the international and national knowledge and scientific understanding
       of damage assessment techniques, methodologies and formats to the Gujarat
       situation and context;

      To develop damage assessment techniques, methodologies and formats
       amounting to best practice for the State of Gujarat;

      To establish clear data collection requirements and formats for damage
       assessment consistent with the needs of the State in reconstruction and the
       provision of assistance;

      To devise appropriate procedures and templates for damage assessment that
       will facilitate the implementation of both rapid responses and long-term
       reconstruction;

      To advise on the IT requirement for damage assessment and its integration with
       other IT components of the disaster management programme.

Loss Assessment

Losses are usually expressed in financial terms. However, it is understood that with
some categories of indirect losses such quantification is difficult. Nevertheless, the
financial expression of damage and loss is crucial to effective reconstruction. The
details of the scope are as follows:

      To review existing systems, structures and methods of loss assessment in the State
       of Gujarat;

      To apply the national and international knowledge and scientific understanding
       of loss assessment techniques, methodologies and formats to the Gujarat
       situation and context;

      To develop loss assessment techniques, methodologies and formats amounting
       to best practice for the state of Gujarat;

      To establish clear data collection requirements and formats for loss assessment
       consistent with the needs of the State in reconstruction and the provision of
       assistance;

      To devise appropriate procedures and templates for loss assessment that will
       facilitate the implementation of both rapid responses and long-term
       reconstruction;

      To advise on the IT requirement for loss assessment and its integration with other
       IT components of the disaster management programme, including damage
       assessment.



While addressing the above, the study should take cognisance of the need of the
State Government to have access to damage and loss assessment data in different
formats. Consequently, the scope and presentation of the data should:

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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology




       Be assembled in such a way that it can provide damage information and loss
        figures according to sector, as well as over the general geographic and
        demographic spread of population;

       Be such that the authorities can use the data to provide assistance, to request
        and assign funding, to prioritise repair and rehabilitation and to achieve short-,
        medium- and long-term objectives;

       Be in formats that are valid for a considerable period of time and that enable
        cash expenditure planning to be undertaken, also over a considerable time
        period;

       Be such that a trained cost professional can assign repair costs consistent with
        local conditions; these costs will be the direct costs of repair plus any
        depreciation of the asset consequent on the damage incurred;

       Be such that it can identify occasions when extra costs will accrue if the
        damage is not repaired immediately;

       Be such that the methodologies include the calculation and financial
        expression of indirect costs that may be intangible and consequently difficult to
        quantify. These indirect costs will include, for example, costs such as those
        incurred due to the loss of tourism, destruction of ancient monuments, cultural
        assets, environmental degradation, etc.



Capacity Building

       To review the structures and work plans of existing organisations and agencies
        responsible for damage and loss assessment in the State and make
        recommendations on institutional mechanisms required for effective
        implementation of damage and loss assessment methodology;

       To conduct a training needs analysis for the organisations and agencies
        identified by assessing the training requirements necessary for effective
        implementation of damage and loss assessment programmes;

       To prepare training modules appropriate to satisfying the training needs
        identified for the compilation of accurate and comprehensive damage and loss
        assessment data and information that are consistent with the experience of the
        officials trained and the structures of the organisations and agencies, and to
        make recommendations on the type of training to be given, its frequency and
        duration, etc.);

       To prepare training modules for those identified as being responsible for initial
        rapid assessments following disaster related to providing familiarity with
        information collection and reporting formats and the certifying of the safety of
        buildings for re-occupancy post-disaster;

       To develop a comprehensive training package, to include consideration of the

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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


       institutionalisation of training within a recognised and appropriate training
       facility in Gujarat, and advise on the resources and staff required to facilitate
       such a package;

      To provide awareness raising for selected officials and personnel not directly
       involved in the implementation of damage and loss assessment but who have
       responsibilities for then implementation of overall disaster management, such as
       the staff of GSDMA;

      To implement and evaluate pilot training courses in both initial post-disaster
       rapid damage and loss assessment practice and in the more comprehensive
       and accurate assessment of damage and loss consistent with the needs of
       longer-term rehabilitation and reconstruction involving key government officials
       and personnel likely to be involved in future assessment activity.



The study should take account of other related disaster management activities
ongoing in the State and seek to co-ordinate with those responsible, especially the
staff of GSDMA and related governmental and non-governmental institutions.




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                                           Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                        Annex 2: Proceedings of Negotiation Meeting
                                     November 18, 2003 14.00 Hrs


             Name of the study: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


Negotiation meeting for above study was held at the office of the GSDMA. Dr. P. K.
Mishra, IAS, CEO chaired the meeting. The following were present at the meeting:
   From GSDMA:
      Mr. V. Thiruppugazh, Joint CEO
      Mr. Arvind Joshi, Director (Administration)
      Mr. T. P. Singh, Director (RESECO)
      Mr. H. D. Vala, CE (Procurement)
      Mr. S. M. Shah, COA & Dir (Finance)
      Mr. Manish A. Rege, PMC
      Mr. Darpan U. Jethi, Consultant


   From ADPC:
      Mr. A. J. Rego
      Prof. Utpal Sharma


Jt. CEO welcomed ADPC for negotiations. Discussions were held on technical proposal
of which following are the key issues deliberated:
      ADPC intimated that as Ms. Delica (earlier proposed as training expert) is now
       not working with ADPC as its Director of Training and Education and has been
       replaced by Mr. Merrick Chatfield, they wish to carry out the replacement on
       the study team too. GSDMA indicated that CV of Mr. Chatfield shall be
       evaluated by subject experts and their decision would be conveyed
       subsequently.
      ADPC opined that the objective of the study was to have a more professional
       approach to Damage and Loss Assessment in the State as well as build capacity
       of the government. Hence, it emphasized the importance of association of
       counterpart institutions and human resources from Gujarat who would be from
       among the eventual implementing departments and institutions. If suitable level
       of human resources could be made available as counterpart; then ADPC was
       willing to work to achieve the same objectives and outputs at a lower level of
       input resources from their team.
      ADPC also indicated that for better dissemination of study outputs as well as
       capacity building, it is necessary that GSDMA identifies some key persons as
       counterparts who would work as Assessors and Trainers at a future date. These
       counterpart officials would be expected to work with ADPC team for relevant
       number of days. This would ensure continuity of the work done.

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                                     Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


      During the discussions, the scope of work within the terms of reference was
       understood exhaustively and hence ADPC, with the renewed understanding of
       the TOR, indicated that they would be able to execute the study by putting
       20.25 key person month inputs without affecting the outputs, and hence arrived
       at a final cost of the study at USD.253,289/- (including taxes).
      GSDMA requested that ADPC shall look into HAZUS methodology apart from
       ECLAC methodology and map it to Gujarat requirements to ensure that the
       resultant methodology is more detailed and reliable. ADPC agreed to the same.
      GSDMA indicated that Mr. V. Suresh (proposed Structural Engineering Expert)
       was associated with GSDMA in advisory capacity and hence his working on the
       study would involve clash of interest. ADPC agreed to replace him suitably.
      ADPC requested that as its team involves international consultants it would be
       very difficult for them to mobilize immediately due to year-end holiday season.
       Hence it was decided mutually that commencement date for the study shall be
       January 20, 2004.


Jt.CEO thanked ADPC for attending the meeting and offered best wishes for the
commencement of the study.


Mr. V. Thiruppugazh                      Mr. A. J. Rego
Joint Chief Executive Officer            Co-Team Leader (DMS team)
GSDMA                                    Asian Disaster Preparedness Center




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                                       Inception Report: Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology


                             Annex 3: List of documents collected


General Background documents
-   Gujarat Emergency Earthquake Reconstruction Project, Project Implementation
    Plan Phase II, Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority, April 2002
-   Gujarat Earthquake Recovery Program: Assessment Report, Joint Report by the
    World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, March 2001

Background Documents for Damage Assessment
-   Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings in Various Seismic Zones in India by Dr. Anand S.
    Arya, Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Program, GoI-UNDP, November
    2003
-   Rapid Assessment of Damage to Buildings in Ahmedabad by Gujarat Earthquake,
    prepared by Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology, February 2001
-   Rapid Visual Screening of Indian Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards, by Indian
    Institute of Technology, Bombay, Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction
    Program, GoI-UNDP, 2003
-   Rapid Assessment of Damage to Buildings Affected by Kachchh Earthquake of 26th
    January 2001, prepared for Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council
    (BMTPC), TARU Leading Edge, April 2001
-   ATC-20-1, Field Manual: Post-earthquake Safety Evaluation of Buildings, by Applied
    Technology Council, California, 1989
-   Damage Assessment Guide and Proformas for Detailed Scientific Assessment of
    Damage for Repair, Retrofitting, reconstruction needs and for estimating realistic
    loss, by Dr. Anand S. Arya, for Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, under the ADB
    Funded Technical Assistance to Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal, India, 2002


Background Documents for Loss Assessment
- Revenue Department, Government of Gujarat, Memorandum to the Government
   of India on the Cyclone in Gujarat on the 9th June 1998, Gandhinagar, 23 June
   1998.
- ---, Memorandum to the Government of India on the Floods in Surat, Gujarat, during
   September 1998, Sachilava, Gandhinagar, 12th October 1998.

-   ---, Memorandum to the Government of India on Scarcity 2000-2001 in Gujarat,
    Gandhinagar, January 2001.

-   ---, A Memorandum on the Earthquake Damage in Gujarat, presented to the
    Government of India, February 2001.

-   ---, Memorandum to the Government of India on Scarcity in Gujarat (2002-2003),
    Gandhinagar, January 2003.
-   ---, Memorandum to the Government of India on the Heavy Rainfall-Floods in
    Gujarat, 2003, Sachivalaya, Gandhinagar, September 2003.
-   Relief Manual, Government of Gujarat

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