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					       Chapter 11:
Project Risk Management




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   1
                      Learning Objectives
• Understand what risk is and the importance of good
  project risk management
• Discuss the elements involved in risk management
  planning
• List common sources of risks on information
  technology projects
• Describe the risk identification process and tools and
  techniques to help identify project risks
• Discuss the qualitative risk analysis process and
  explain how to calculate risk factors, use
  probability/impact matrixes, the Top Ten Risk Item
  Tracking technique, and expert judgment to rank risks

           IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   2
                      Learning Objectives
• Explain the quantify risk analysis process and how to
  use decision trees and simulation to quantitative risks
• Provide examples of using different risk response
  planning strategies such as risk avoidance, acceptance,
  transference, and mitigation
• Discuss what is involved in risk monitoring and control
• Describe how software can assist in project risk
  management
• Explain the results of good project risk management


           IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   3
         The Importance of Project Risk
                 Management
• Project risk management is the art and science of
  identifying, assigning, and responding to risk
  throughout the life of a project and in the best interests
  of meeting project objectives
• Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but
  it can help improve project success by helping select
  good projects, determining project scope, and
  developing realistic estimates
• A study by Ibbs and Kwak show how risk management
  is neglected, especially on IT projects
• KPMG study found that 55 percent of runaway projects
  did no risk management at all
            IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   4
Table 11-1. Project Management Maturity
 by Industry Group and Knowledge Area




   IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   5
                            What is Risk?

• A dictionary definition of risk is “the
  possibility of loss or injury”
• Project risk involves understanding
  potential problems that might occur on the
  project and how they might impede project
  success
• Risk management is like a form of
  insurance; it is an investment

        IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   6
                                Risk Utility

• Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of
  satisfaction or pleasure received from a
  potential payoff
  – Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who
    is risk-averse
  – Those who are risk-seeking have a higher
    tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases
    when more payoff is at stake
  – The risk-neutral approach achieves a balance
    between risk and payoff


         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   7
  Figure 11-1. Risk Utility
Function and Risk Preference




 IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   8
       What is Project Risk Management?
The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks
while maximizing potential opportunities. Major processes include
 – Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan
   the risk management activities for the project
 – Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a
   project and documenting their characteristics
 – Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and
   prioritizing their effects on project objectives
 – Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and
   consequences of risks
 – Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities
   and reduce threats to meeting project objectives
 – Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks,
   identifying new risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the
   effectiveness of risk reduction
           IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11         9
         Risk Management Planning

• The main output of risk management planning is
  a risk management plan
• The project team should review project
  documents and understand the organization’s
  and the sponsor’s approach to risk
• The level of detail will vary with the needs of
  the project



         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   10
Table 11-2. Questions Addressed
  in a Risk Management Plan




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   11
      Contingency and Fallback Plans,
           Contingency Reserves
• Contingency plans are predefined actions that
  the project team will take if an identified risk
  event occurs
• Fallback plans are developed for risks that have
  a high impact on meeting project objectives
• Contingency reserves or allowances are
  provisions held by the project sponsor that can
  be used to mitigate cost or schedule risk if
  changes in scope or quality occur

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   12
        Common Sources of Risk on
      Information Technology Projects
• Several studies show that IT projects share some
  common sources of risk
• The Standish Group developed an IT success
  potential scoring sheet based on potential risks
• McFarlan developed a risk questionnaire to help
  assess risk
• Other broad categories of risk help identify
  potential risks

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   13
Table 11-3. Information Technology
  Success Potential Scoring Sheet
     Success Criterion                      Points
     User Involvement                       19
     Executive Management support           16
     Clear Statement of Requirements        15
     Proper Planning                        11
     Realistic Expectations                 10
     Smaller Project Milestones             9
     Competent Staff                        8
     Ownership                              6
     Clear Visions and Objectives           3
     Hard-Working, Focused Staff            3
      Total                                 100

  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   14
Table 11-4. McFarlan’s Risk Questionnaire
1.   What is the project estimate in calendar (elapsed) time?
     ( ) 12 months or less                 Low = 1 point
     ( ) 13 months to 24 months            Medium = 2 points
     ( ) Over 24 months                    High = 3 points
2.   What is the estimated number of person days for the system?
     ( ) 12 to 375                         Low = 1 point
     ( ) 375 to 1875                       Medium = 2 points
     ( ) 1875 to 3750                      Medium = 3 points
     ( ) Over 3750                         High = 4 points
3.   Number of departments involved (excluding IT)
     ( ) One                               Low = 1 point
     ( ) Two                               Medium = 2 points
     ( ) Three or more                     High = 3 points
4.   Is additional hardware required for the project?
     ( ) None                              Low = 0 points
     ( ) Central processor type change     Low = 1 point
     ( ) Peripheral/storage device changes Low = 1
     ( ) Terminals                         Med = 2
     ( ) Change of platform, for example High = 3
     PCs replacing mainframes

      IT Project Management, Third Edition                 Chapter 11   15
           Other Categories of Risk
• Market risk: Will the new product be useful to
  the organization or marketable to others? Will
  users accept and use the product or service?
• Financial risk: Can the organization afford to
  undertake the project? Is this project the best
  way to use the company’s financial resources?
• Technology risk: Is the project technically
  feasible? Could the technology be obsolete
  before a useful product can be produced?

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   16
                               What Went Wrong?
   Many information technology projects fail because of technology risk. One
   project manager learned an important lesson on a large IT project: focus on
   business needs first, not technology. David Anderson, a project manager for
   Kaman Sciences Corp., shared his experience from a project failure in an article
   for CIO Enterprise Magazine. After spending two years and several hundred
   thousand dollars on a project to provide new client/server-based financial and
   human resources information systems for their company, Anderson and his
   team finally admitted they had a failure on their hands. Anderson revealed that
   he had been too enamored of the use of cutting-edge technology and had taken
   a high-risk approach on the project. He "ramrodded through" what the project
   team was going to do and then admitted that he was wrong. The company
   finally decided to switch to a more stable technology to meet the business needs
   of the company.



Hildebrand, Carol. “If At First You Don’t Succeed,” CIO Enterprise Magazine, April 15, 1998
                    IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11                         17
                        Risk Identification

• Risk identification is the process of
  understanding what potential unsatisfactory
  outcomes are associated with a particular project
• Several risk identification tools and techniques
  include
  –   Brainstorming
  –   The Delphi technique
  –   Interviewing
  –   SWOT analysis


           IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   18
        Table 11-5. Potential Risk Conditions
        Associated with Each Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area         Risk Conditions
Integration            Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration
                       management; lack of post-project review
Scope                  Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition
                       of quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time                   Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation
                       and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost                   Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or
                       contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality                Poor attitude toward quality; substandard
                       design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance
                       program
Human Resources        Poor conflict management; poor project organization and
                       definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications         Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation
                       with key stakeholders
Risk                   Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance
                       management
Procurement            Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
              IT Project Management, Third Edition        Chapter 11                         19
       Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Assess the likelihood and impact of
  identified risks to determine their magnitude
  and priority
• Risk quantification tools and techniques
  include
  – Probability/Impact matrixes
  – The Top 10 Risk Item Tracking technique
  – Expert judgment



      IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   20
Sample Probability/Impact Matrix




 IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   21
Table 11-6. Sample Probability/Impact
Matrix for Qualitative Risk Assessment




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   22
 Figure 11-3. Chart Showing High-,
Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   23
       Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
• Top 10 Risk Item Tracking is a tool for
  maintaining an awareness of risk throughout
  the life of a project
• Establish a periodic review of the top 10
  project risk items
• List the current ranking, previous ranking,
  number of times the risk appears on the list
  over a period of time, and a summary of
  progress made in resolving the risk item

      IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   24
     Table 11-7. Example of Top 10
           Risk Item Tracking
                            Monthly Ranking
Risk Item            This       Last        Number    Risk Resolution
                                            of Months Progress
                     Month      Month
Inadequate           1          2           4          Working on revising the
planning                                               entire project plan
Poor definition      2          3           3          Holding meetings with
of scope                                               project customer and
                                                       sponsor to clarify scope
Absence of           3          1           2          Just assigned a new
leadership                                             project manager to lead
                                                       the project after old one
                                                       quit
Poor cost            4          4           3          Revising cost estimates
estimates
Poor time            5          5           3          Revising schedule
estimates                                              estimates

            IT Project Management, Third Edition     Chapter 11                    25
                         Expert Judgment

• Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings
  and past experience of experts to help identify
  potential project risks
• Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or
  low with or without more sophisticated
  techniques




         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   26
           Quantitative Risk Analysis

• Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both
  can be done together or separately
• Large, complex projects involving leading edge
  technologies often require extensive quantitative
  risk analysis
• Main techniques include
  – decision tree analysis
  – simulation


          IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   27
         Decision Trees and Expected
           Monetary Value (EMV)
• A decision tree is a diagramming method used
  to help you select the best course of action in
  situations in which future outcomes are
  uncertain
• EMV is a type of decision tree where you
  calculate the expected monetary value of a
  decision based on its risk event probability and
  monetary value


         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   28
Figure 11-4. Expected Monetary
    Value (EMV) Example




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   29
                                 Simulation
• Simulation uses a representation or model of a
  system to analyze the expected behavior or
  performance of the system
• Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s
  outcome many times to provide a statistical
  distribution of the calculated results
• To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must
  have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic,
  and optimistic) plus an estimate of the
  likelihood of the estimate being between the
  optimistic and most likely values
         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   30
                        What Went Right?
A large aerospace company used Monte Carlo simulation to help quantify
risks on several advanced-design engineering projects. The National
Aerospace Plan (NASP) project involved many risks. The purpose of this
multibillion-dollar project was to design and develop a vehicle that could
fly into space using a single-stage-to-orbit approach. A single-stage-to-orbit
approach meant the vehicle would have to achieve a speed of Mach 25 (25
times the speed of sound) without a rocket booster. A team of engineers and
business professionals worked together in the mid-1980s to develop a
software model for estimating the time and cost of developing the NASP.
This model was then linked with Monte Carlo simulation software to
determine the sources of cost and schedule risk for the project. The results
of the simulation were then used to determine how the company would
invest its internal research and development funds. Although the NASP
project was terminated, the resulting research has helped develop more
advanced materials and propulsion systems used on many modern aircraft.




           IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11                     31
               Risk Response Planning
• After identifying and quantifying risks, you
  must decide how to respond to them
• Four main strategies:
  – Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or risk,
    usually by eliminating its causes
  – Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences should
    a risk occur
  – Risk transference: shifting the consequence of a risk
    and responsibility for its management to a third
    party
  – Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk event
    by reducing the probability of its occurrence
          IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   32
Table 11-8. General Risk Mitigation Strategies
   for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks




    IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   33
               Risk Monitoring and Control

• Monitoring risks involves knowing their status
• Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk
  management plans as risks occur
• Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk
  events that must be done when there are no
  contingency plans
• The main outputs of risk monitoring and control
  are corrective action, project change requests,
  and updates to other plans

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   34
                Risk Response Control
• Risk response control involves executing the risk
  management processes and the risk management
  plan to respond to risk events
• Risks must be monitored based on defined
  milestones and decisions made regarding risks
  and mitigation strategies
• Sometimes workarounds or unplanned responses
  to risk events are needed when there are no
  contingency plans

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   35
         Using Software to Assist in
         Project Risk Management
• Databases can keep track of risks. Many IT
  departments have issue tracking databases
• Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and quantifying
  risks
• More sophisticated risk management software,
  such as Monte Carlo simulation tools, help in
  analyzing project risks



         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   36
   Figure 11-5. Sample Monte Carlo
Simulation Results for Project Schedule




  IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   37
  Figure 11-6. Sample Monte Carlo
Simulations Results for Project Costs




 IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   38
         Results of Good Project Risk
                 Management
• Unlike crisis management, good project risk
  management often goes unnoticed
• Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless,
  but a lot of work goes into running a project
  well
• Project managers should strive to make their
  jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run
  projects

         IT Project Management, Third Edition   Chapter 11   39

				
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