050710 - Managing Money Sensibly PSG Alphen Asset Management

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							                 The Alphen Angle is an electronic publication of
   Managing      PSG Alphen Asset Management
      Money
 PSG Alphen
 Asset
     Sensibly
 Management
                 05 July 2010                                                        Print Friendly pdf

                The Hangover – coming soon (next week) to a cinema near you

                                                              My wife and my liver will be glad when the World
                                                              Cup is over. South Africa, its economy and its
                                                              people will be sad to see it come to a close.

                                                              South Africa has proved itself to be an extremely
Shaun le Roux                                                 capable host and the tournament has been a
                                                              fantastic advertisement for the country. The
                                                              stadiums are magnificent and the logistical
                                                              planning and organisation have been impressive.
                                                              Indeed, it is almost certain that we will look back
                                                              on this sporting extravaganza as one of the more
                                                              positive events in our nation’s history.

                                                              The obvious questions are: what are the long
                                                              term benefits and what happens after the World
                                                              Cup?

                                                              As far as the immediate benefits are concerned,
                                                              some sectors of the economy have profited
                                                              substantially before and during the event. The
                                                              construction industry has enjoyed a windfall
                                                              couple of years.
                Stadiums, the Gautrain and other road and transport projects have kept the contractors very
                busy. Just when the global downturn started to weigh on a variety of mining and infrastructural
                projects, the World Cup projects came around to cushion the blow. The differentiating factor
                of the World Cup-related projects has been the degree of urgency. Whereas, the average
                government and parastatal project has and will continue to be subject to inevitable delays in
                specification, award and execution, the World Cup projects had strict FIFA-imposed deadlines;
                they had to be done on time. If only FIFA could oversee all our infrastructure projects!

                The event has been a massive boon to the hospitality and leisure sectors. I can personally
                vouch for the healthy volume of beer sold by the likes of SAB Miller over the past month, and
                am eternally grateful that we won’t be subjected to Budweiser, at R30 a bottle nogal, on an
                ongoing basis. Early indications are that, although we would have liked to see higher tourist
                numbers, those that came spent freely. All this amounts to a very smart once-off injection
                straight into the vein for the SA economy.

                The spotlight has been on South Africa over the past few weeks, and the country has delivered.
                For this, we can give ourselves a pat on the back. It is indeed gratifying to know what we are
                capable of achieving if we put our minds to it. A lot of hard work went into the event, both in
                terms of planning and delivery. Those that were involved should have gained invaluable skills.



  Managing
    Money
   Sensibly
                          05 July 2010


                            The World Cup has also been a very positive exercise in nation-building. Unfortunately, we
                            seem to find very few opportunities to unite the nation behind one cause. We rallied behind
                            Bafana Bafana and threw our full weight into making the tournament a success by welcoming
                            our visitors. If only we could continue on this path of building our nation and bridging the
                            gap between rich and poor with the same gusto!

                            So, what happens next week, after Spain have lifted the trophy? We will have to nurse the
                            inevitable hangover – literal and figurative. Once the last tourist has left it is back to real life.
                            Focus will return to some of the economic and social issues facing our country: the poor
                            state of education and health, service delivery and unemployment. This country is crying out
                            for true leadership. Indeed, let us hope that the World Cup will be the spark that spurs the
                            politicians on to deliver to those that need it most rather than jostling for a seat on the gravy
                            train.

                            Prepare yourself for the unavoidable lull in infrastructural spend. As discussed above, the
                            urgency in execution will fall by the wayside. Unfortunately, there is less money than
                            previously in the kitty to fund the very necessary projects in power, transport, housing,
                            health and education. Yet, these projects are essential to our long term development and
                            growth. Hopefully, the successes of delivery into the World Cup will be the blueprint for
                            execution on infrastructural projects in the future.

                            Before we become gloomy and pre-occupied with the issues we face, we should
                            acknowledge how positive the World Cup has been. There have been both the shorter
                            term economic spin-offs and the longer term capacity improvements. The tournament
                            served as a catalyst for the roll-out of a vastly improved public transport system in the major
                            cities. Many citizens of Johannesburg and Cape Town have used buses and trains for the first
                            time in many years and were generally impressed. There is no reason why a working public
                            transport system cannot be a part of our everyday lives. The economic and environmental
                            benefits will be significant.

                            Security arrangements during the tournament have been top notch. Tourists and citizens
                            have felt free to walk in areas that they would normally avoid. Again, it just goes to show
                            what can be achieved when we apply our minds to the matter of security.

                            It is imperative that South Africa has the will and savvy to leverage off this massive once-off
                            event. Lessons should have been learnt, skills developed and capacity created. To let this go
                            to waste would be criminal. Let us hope that next week we will be reading about what a
                            success the tournament was, the benefits reaped, what we have learned and how our
                            leadership will be employing this knowledge going forward. I for one would rather see
                            attention given to these stories than some of the other drivel that had been hogging
                            newspaper headlines before the World Cup came around.



                       ADRIAN CLAYTON                                                    SHAUN LE ROUX                                            NEELS VAN SCHAIK
                       MARK SEYMOUR                                                      PHILIPP WÖRZ                                                    MARK CLIFF
PSG Alphen             GREG FLASH
Asset                If you have any queries regarding the above commentary please contact Mark Cliff on 021 799 8069 or 083 700 3600 or

Management
is an authorised
                     PLEASE NOTE: While every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained herein is correct, PSG Alphen Asset Management cannot be
Financial services   held responsible for any errors that may occur. The views of the contributors may not necessarily reflect the house view of PSG Alphen Asset Management.
provider             Views and opinions expressed herein may change with market conditions and should not be used in isolation.

                                                 PSG Alphen Asset Management is a subsidiary of PSG Fund Management Holdings (Pty) Limited

						
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