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Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth

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					    The Role of the Second
   Demographic Transition in
Secularism's Evolutionary Demise
                  Eric Kaufmann
      Birkbeck College, University of London/
         Harvard KSG Belfer Center Fellow

             e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk
              Demographic Transition
• Begins in Europe in late
  18th c.
• Spreads to much of the
  rest of the world in 20th c
• TFR below 2.1 in most of
  East Asia, Brazil, Kerala,
  Tunisia, Iran…
• World TFR is just 2.55. UN
  predicts World TFR falling
  below replacement (2.33)
  during 2020-2050
           Global Depopulation?: Total
           Fertility Rates by Country,
           2008




Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008
 PROJECTED EUROPEAN POPULATION DECLINE TO 2030

                         2010    2030    2050

 ALL EUROPE               728     704     650

 UK                       61.3    64.3      64
 France                   61.6    63.2      61
 Germany                  82.3    79.6    73.6
 Italy                    58.1    55.4    50.4
 Spain                    40.5      39    35.5
 Netherlands              16.8    17.7    17.7
 Belgium                  10.4    10.4     9.8
 Russia                  140.8   126.5   110.8
 Poland                   38.7    37.4    33.8
 Czech Rep.               10.2     9.6     8.5
 Hungary                   9.9     9.3     8.4
 Portugal                 10.7    10.7     9.9
 Ukraine                  46.2    42.3    37.7
Source: Goldstone 2007
                World's Oldest Countries, 2000 and 2050
                                       in 2000             in 2050
                         Country   15-59       60+     15-59       60+

          Italy                      61.7       24.1      46.2     42.3
          Greece                     61.5       23.4      46.2     40.7
          Germany                    61.2       23.2      49.5     38.1
          Japan                      62.1       23.2      45.2     42.3
          Sweden                     59.4       22.4      48.3     37.7
          Belgium                    60.6       22.1      50.3     35.5
          Spain                      63.5       21.8      44.5     44.1
          Bulgaria                   62.6       21.7      47.6     38.6
          Switzerland                62.1       21.3      48.6     38.9
          Latvia                     61.7       20.9      47.5     37.5
          Portugal                   62.5       20.8      49.9     35.7
          Austria                    62.6       20.7      47.4     41.0
          United Kingdom             60.4       20.6      51.1     34.0
          Ukraine                    61.6       20.5      49.0     38.1
          France                     60.7       20.5      51.3     32.7
          Estonia                    62.1       20.2      48.5     35.9
          Croatia                    61.8       20.2      53.0     30.8
          Denmark                    61.8       20.0      53.0     31.8
          Finland                    62.0       19.9      50.6     34.4
          Hungary                    63.3       19.7      49.4     36.2
          Norway                     60.7       19.6      51.7     32.3
          Luxembourg                 62.0       19.4      57.1     25.2
          Slovenia                   65.0       19.2      45.1     42.4
          Belarus                    62.4       18.9      49.6     35.8
          Romania                    62.9       18.8      50.0     34.2
Source: Goldstone 2007
      Second Demographic Transition
• Below Replacement
  fertility
• No sign of a rebound
• **Values, not material
  constraints, determine
  fertility (Lesthaeghe &
  Surkyn 1988; van de
  Kaa 1987)
      Anabaptist Religious Isolates
• Hutterites: 400 in 1880;
  50,000 today.
• Amish: 5000 in 1900;
  230,000 today. Doubling
  time: 20-25 years. (i.e 4-5
  million by 2100)
• Fertility has come down
  somewhat, but remains
  high: 4.7-6.2 family size
• Retention rate has
  increased from 70 pc
  among those born pre-1945
  to over 90 pc for 1966-75
  cohort
• UK: A Tale of Two Cities:
  Salford v Leeds
• US:
   – American Jews have TFR
     of 1.43. In 2000-6 alone,
     Haredim increase from
     7.2 to 9.4 pc of total.

   – Kiryas Joel, in Orange
     Co., New York, nearly
     triples in population to
     18000 between 1990
     and 2006
Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007
 Israel: Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Growth
• TFR of 6.49 in 1980-82 increasing to 7.61 in
  1990-96; Other Israeli Jews decline 2.61 to
  2.27
• Proportion set to more than double, to 17%
  by 2020
• Already 1/3 of Jewish primary school students
  (2012)
• No indication of major outflows
• Majority of Israeli Jews after 2050?
USA: 20th c Rise of Evangelical
         Protestants




 Source: Hout at al. 2001
Religious Switching No Longer Favours Liberal
                Denominations
Source: Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2005
   Ethnic Gap Declines, Religious Gap
               Widens
• Catholic-Protestant in       Fertility Gap, Women Aged
  US; now Muslim-              40-60 (Children Ever Born) in
  Christian in Europe          GSS 1972-2006

• But religious intensity
  linked to higher fertility               Biblical Literalist   Homosexuality    Abortion

• Europe: Religious have
  higher fertility (Adsera
  2004; Regnier-Loilier        1972-85                    1.15             1.11        1.22


  2008, etc)
• Conservative Muslim          1986-96                    1.21             1.16        1.28

  and Christian
  immigration to Europe
                               1997-2006                  1.25             1.21        1.38
IIASA, near
Vienna
          Austria: Projected Proportion Declaring
          ‘No Religion’
Percent
                                         Assuming:
 35


 30
                                    High secularization trend
 25


 20
                                    Constant secularization trend

 15


 10                                 Low secularization trend
                                                            Austria,
                                                           TFR 2001
  5                                      Roman Catholics         1.32
                                         Protestants             1.21
                                         Muslims                 2.34
  0
                                         Others                  1.44
   01

   06

   11

   16

   21

   26

   31

   36

   41

   46

   51




                                         Without                 0.86
 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20

 20




                                         Total                   1.33
                                    Figure 7. Projected Nonreligious and Muslim Populations,
                                            Austria and Switzerland, 2001-2051 (IIASA)

                        25                                                                     Swiss Nonreligious
                                                                                                   (expected)

                                                                                          Austrian
                        20
                                                                                        Nonreligious
% of Total Population




                                                                                                     Austrian Muslims
                                                                                         (expected)
                                                                                                        (expected)
                        15                                  Austrian                                 Swiss Nonreligious
                                                         Nonreligious                                  (low decline)
                                                         (low decline)
                        10                                                                             Swiss Muslims
                                                                                                        (expected)
                        5


                        0
                             2001   2006   2011   2016    2021    2026   2031   2036   2041   2046     2051
Similar Dynamics
in USA
                                           Figure 6. Projected Religious Population,
                                           Six Early-Declining Societies, 2004-2104

                       50%

                                                                                                     Expected
                       45%
Proportion Religious




                                                                                               No Fertility Gap
                       40%


                       35%

                                                                                              High Decline, No
                       30%                                                                      Fertility Gap


                       25%
                             2004   2014    2024   2034   2044   2054   2064   2074    2084      2094   2104
            Islamism and Fertility
• ‘Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the capacity
  for many children to grow in it…Westerners have got
  problems. Because their population growth is
  negative, they are worried and fear that if our
  population increases, we will triumph over them.’ –
  Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, 2006
• ‘You people are supporting…the enemies of Islam and
  Muslims...Personnel were trained to distribute family
  planning pills. The aim of this project is to persuade
  the young girls to commit adultery’ – Taliban Council
  note to murdered family planning clinic employee,
  Kandahar, 2008
                      Is Islam Different?
                             Attitudes to Shari'a and Fertility, Islamic Countries, by
                                   Urban and Rural, 2000 WVS (Muslims Only)
                     3.5
                     3.3
                     3.1                                                      city > 100k
Children Ever Born




                     2.9                                                      town < 10k
                     2.7
                     2.5
                     2.3
                     2.1
                     1.9
                     1.7
                     1.5
                           Str. Agree     Agree        Neither     Disagree      Str. Disagree

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561
respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.
European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come?




Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007
  Conclusion: Demographic Trends
• Conservative religion growing fastest in
  Israel/diaspora (change within a decade), major
  change by 2050
• In the US and Europe, the change will take place
  slowly, over generations (major change after
  2050)
• Muslim world: more like US/Europe. Conservative
  advantage should grow with modernization
• Driven by demography and retention
            Did it Happen Before?:
            The Rise of Christianity
• 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300
  A.D. (Stark 1997)
• Cared for sick during regular plagues, lowering mortality
• Encouraged pro-family ethos (as opposed to pagans’
  macho ethos), attracting female converts and raising
  fertility rate
• 40 percent growth per decade for 10 generations, same
  as Mormons in USA in past century
• Reached 'tipping point' and then became established in
  312
        Evolutionary Theory: Cultural
• Genes (individual), Memes (collective)
• 3 Memes of modernity create environment that favours secularism:
  Rationality, Individuality, Equality.
• All are double edged:
   – Liberty: toleration of illiberal groups as well as promoting self-
      autonomy
   – Equality: mass democracy as well as an end to religious
      hierarchies
   – Rationality: allows religious groups to communicate with each
      other, to better mobilize against secularism and improve
      retention, hardening boundaries
• Major recent changes:
   – Mimetic change #1: Rationality (post-1968, and post-1989) –
      weakens ‘secular religions’ of socialism and anarchism
   – Mimetic change #2 – Equality -‘Cultural turn’ of 1960s Left now
      opposes rationality, secularism, science
  Evolutionary Theory: Demographic
• Nonmimetic change alters environment: demographic
  transition
• Educated and wealthy used to have more surviving
  offspring until late 1800s (Skirbekk)
• Neither poverty nor religiosity conferred growth
  advantage. Now both do.
• Religious grow: 1) directly through
  pronatalism/traditional gender roles (i.e. Haredim,
  Mormons); 2) indirectly, through poverty/low education
  which is linked to traditional gender roles and higher
  fertility (i.e. Muslim immigrants in Europe, US
  evangelicals in 20th c, religious worldwide)
          Will We All Be Haredi?
• ‘r’-strategy: C G Darwin’s The Next Million Years
  (1953)?
• But burgeoning religious memes like Haredim
  will encounter growing resistance
• Negative collective effects of religious fervour
  (poorer strategic decisions by religious states,
  slower technological progress) may render
  religious societies weaker, causing emigration or
  even higher mortality
  The Contradictions of Liberalism
• Could have equilibrium of religious producers of
  people and secular consumers of them (i.e. McNeill
  on countryside surplus and urban mortality)
• ‘K’-Equilibrium: Advanced weaponry protects;
  superior economies attract labour; assimilation
  secularizes
• But environment has changed, favouring ‘r’-
  strategies
• ‘r’-groups can thrive in changed demographic, liberal
  environment created by ‘K’-groups
• Secular liberalism must either become illiberal or
  non-secular to preserve itself
• Illiberal strategy: ‘secular religion’ like romantic
  nationalism (i.e. France); We see multiculturalism
  giving way to secular nationalism in Europe; Israel
  trying to integrate Haredim – Lieberman the start of
  an alarmist phase?
• Unsecular strategy: public religion with space for
  both secularism and tame fundamentalists (i.e. USA).
  But true secularism will be in retreat.
• Secular Liberalism will fall of its own contradictions
  (i.e. Nietzsche, toleration of illiberals)
• Israel will be the laboratory
      Do Individual Genes Matter?
• Memes may work with or against the grain of genes
• Haredim do not contain more religious genes than
  secular Europeans
• Only in the very long run will unfit memes which fail to
  satisfy our genes be selected out – and likewise with
  unfit genes
• Those with genetic predisposition for religion may
  ultimately triumph, but only – paradoxically – if
  secularism prevails for a long time, allowing genetic
  religiosity a chance to express itself independently of
  religious memes
            Project Website
• http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
Modern education…liberates men from their
attachments to tradition and authority. They
realize that their horizon is merely a
horizon, not solid land but a mirage…That
is why modern man is the last man….
(Fukuyama 1992: 306-7)
Social cohesion is a necessity and mankind
has never yet succeeded in enforcing social
cohesion by merely rational arguments.
Every community is exposed to two
opposite dangers; ossification through too
much discipline and reverence for
tradition…or subjection to foreign conquest,
through the growth of an
individualism…that makes cooperation
impossible. (Russell 1946: 22)

				
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posted:3/5/2011
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