Pakistan Retail Industry - PDF by wyu41968

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Pakistan Food & Drink Report Q1 2008

Description:    The Pakistan Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
                Pakistans food and drink industry.

                The release of third-quarter and nine-month financial results has continued to highlight the strong
                growth opportunities available to consumer goods manufacturers in the fledgling but vast market of
                Pakistan.

                Likewise, the performance of leading food and beverage companies, coupled with Pakistan’s
                sustained economic growth, has continued to influence our industry growth forecasts in our newly-
                published Pakistan Food & Drink Report Q108. However, for all these positive signs, there are a
                number of major negatives - market and country risks and inherent consumer price sensitivity
                among them.

                Pakistan’s largest consumer goods company Unilever Pakistan posted its third-quarter and nine-
                month financial results in November 2007. For Q307 sales were up 7% year-on-year (y-o-y), while
                profit-aftertax had climbed by 20%. Meanwhile nine month sales growth stood at 10%, while profit-
                after-tax climbed by 5%. Such results - although shy of Unilever’s 20% annual growth target -
                provide much cause for positivity. Results posted by Nestlé Pakistan support this positive view. For
                the first nine months of 2007 the company’s sales jumped by an enormous 28% y-o-y to reach
                US$342.3mn. Sustained internal and foreign direct investment (FDI) into the food and beverage
                sector, supported by our average annual GDP growth forecast of 6.7% to 2012, a youthful
                population and steady urbanisation have prompted us to revise a number of its industry growth
                forecasts upwards this quarter.

                The outlook for the canned food industry - which can exploit rising demand for convenience and
                consumer fears over food origin and hygiene - and the soft drinks industry - which can capitalise on
                the aspirational demands of Pakistan’s young population - have both been moderately accelerated.
                Forecast canned food sales growth to 2012 now stands at 46.7%, while soft drinks sales growth to
                2012 is forecast to stand at 36.4%. Both have contributed to a per capita food consumption growth
                forecast amendment to 15.4%.

                The downside of all these attractive growth signs is quite simply that they are not yet attractive
                enough to offset the risks of investing in Pakistan. The country falls at the very bottom of our new
                Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings, due to both its limits and its associated risks. In
                limits terms, food and beverage spending levels remain low due to acute price sensitivity among
                certain consumer groups, particularly those in rural areas. Even though spending levels are forecast
                to increase, in relative terms this growth will be moderate thanks to the booming economic growth
                being experienced by many of Pakistan’s neighbours. The country’s risks outlook is even more
                problematic than its limits outlook. Such a vast and underdeveloped market poses huge
                infrastructural challenges, while income inequalities and perceived bureaucracy and corruption
                remain problems on the economic and political side.
                Ultimately, as the report details, Pakistan looks set to remain an attractive market, but only for
                those with the scale and patience to ride out the still considerable market entry risks.



Contents:       Executive Summary 5
                Business Environment 6
                Regional Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings 6
                Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108 8
                Pakistan’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rating 8
                SWOT Analysis 10
                Mass Grocery Retail 10
                Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
                Food and Drink 11
                Pakistan Food And Drink Industry SWOT 11
Macroeconomic Outlook 12
Table: GDP And Population 14
Retail15
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific 15
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (store
numbers) 16
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (sales,
US$mn) 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Pakistan MGR Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Industry Developments 20
Market Overview 21
Table: Structure Of Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 22
Table: Structure Of Pakistan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales By Format (US$mn) 23
Table: Average Annual Outlet Sales By Format, 2006 Estimate (US$mn) 23
Sales/Store Number Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 23
Food And Drink 24
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region 24
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers 24
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Food 29
Table: Pakistan Food Consumption, Category Sales & Industry Trade Indicators - Historical Data &
Forecasts 31
Drink 31
Table: Pakistan Beverage Sub-Sector Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Industry Developments 33
Food 33
Drink 35
Agriculture 36
Market Overview 36
Agriculture 36
Table: Pakistan Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (’000 tonnes) 38
Table: Pakistan Organic Agricultural Data 38
Table: Pakistan Dairy Industry Data (mn litres, unless stated) 38
Table: Pakistan Milk Consumption by Format - 2006 est 39
Food 39
Drink 40
Tobacco41
Industry Forecast Scenario 41
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 41
Industry Developments 42
Market Overview 42
Competitive Landscape44
Key Players 44
Mass Grocery Retail 44
Table: Key Players Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2006 Annual Sales Estimates 44
Food and Drink 45
Table: Key Players: Pakistan Food & Drink Sector - 2006 Sales 45
Regional Company Case Studies 46
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region 46
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets 49
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region 50
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region 51
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%) 51
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn) 53
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data 54
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region 55
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results 55
Company Analysis 59
Mass Grocery Retail 59
Utility Stores Corporation (USC) 59
            Food 60
            Hilal Confectionery 60
            Nestlé Pakistan 61
            Unilever Pakistan 62
            Drink 63
            Tapal Tea 63
            Food & Drink Ratings Appendix 64
            Introduction: Revised Methodology 64
            Ratings Overview 64
            Ratings System 64
            Indicators 64
            Limits of Potential Returns 65
            Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns 66
            Weighting 66
            Weighting 67
            Our Forecast Modelling 68
            How we generate our industry forecasts 68
            Retail Industry 68
            Sources 69



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