The Canadian Dollar And Inflation - Observation

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					                                                  Observation                                          TD Economics
                                                                                                       www.td.com/economics

                                                    November 24, 2010

             HIGHLIGHTS                        THE CANADIAN DOLLAR AND INFLATION - TALE
•	 Canadian	 core	 inflation	 accel-                  OF A BUMPY RELATIONSHIP
   erated	 more	 than	 expected	 in	
   October,	 to	 1.8%	 y	 /y%,	 up	 from	          Yesterday’s inflation report raised some eyebrows by showing that Canadian
   1.5%	in	the	previous	month.	More	           core inflation accelerated more than expected in October, reaching 1.8% year-
   than	half	the	acceleration	can	be	          over-year, up from a more moderate 1.5% in the previous month. As noted in TD
   explained	by	a	0.5%		gain	in	the	           Economics commentary, the acceleration in core inflation was at odds with the
   price	 of	 goods,	 excluding	 food	         current economic backdrop – in particular, the large amount of economic slack
   and	energy.	                                that persists and a strong Canadian dollar. Even more surprising was that more
•	 We	have	estimated	that	on	aver-             than half the acceleration in core inflation can be explained by a 0.5% annual gain
   age	 a	 1%	 appreciation/deprecia-          in the price of goods, excluding food and energy. Given that this component is
   tion	in	the	Canadian	dollar	leads	
                                               the most sensitive to both the slack in the economy and the Canadian dollar, the
   to	a	0.4%	decrease/increase	in	the	
                                               upturn in October is very surprising.
   price	of	these	goods	with	a	six-to-
   nine	month	lag.	                                Last week, the Bank of Canada’s Review published research that indicated
                                               that the pass-through of the Canadian dollar to the price of imported goods was
•	 However,	the	recession	stripped	
   retailers	of	their	pricing	powers,	         minute, and has been
   and	 as	 a	 result,	 they	 could	 not	      declining over time.                  CANADIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
                                                                                                      (y/y%	change)
   pass	the	sharp	depreciation	of	the	         On the surface, Oc-
   Canadian	dollar,	which	increased	           tober’s inflation re-                 Goods excl. food and energy    BoC Core Inflation
                                                                             1.0                                                     3.0
   import	 costs	 during	 2008/2009	           port seems to support         0.5
   onto	 consumer	 prices.	 	As	 a	 re-        the Bank of Canada’s                                                                  2.5
                                                                             0.0
   sult,	 while	 the	 Canadian	 dollar	        findings – as that           -0.5
   remains	1.0%	below	its	2008	peak,	          month’s rise in goods
                                                                                                                                     2.0
                                                                            -1.0
   the	cost	of	goods	excluding	food	           inflation came despite       -1.5                                                     1.5
   and	 energy	 remain	 0.5%	 below	
                                               a 3.5% appreciation          -2.0
   the	 price	 level	 at	 that	 time.	 	 As	                                                                                         1.0
   such,	 we	 believe	 that	 the	 sharp	
                                               in the Canadian dol-         -2.5

   acceleration	in	this	component	of	          lar against the U.S.         -3.0
                                                                                                                                     0.5

   the	CPI	is	a	reflection	of	retailer	        dollar from year-ago         -3.5

   prices	picking	up	as	demand	has	            levels, and one would        -4.0                                                     0.0
                                                                                2007          2008            2009  2010
   improved	 over	 the	 last	 year	 of	        expect competition to
   economic	recovery.	                         lead importers to pass Source: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
•	 Going	forward,	the	cost	of	goods,	          along savings to con-
   excluding	food	and	energy,	are	ex-          sumers. Normally, an appreciation in the Canadian dollar leads to lower inflation
   pected	to	take	their	cue	from	the	          because a rising loonie makes imported goods cheaper on the international market.
   slack	 in	 the	 Canadian	 economy	          This begs the question of whether the Canadian dollar matters for the inflation
   in	the	near-term,	rather	than	from	         outlook? This matters because, if driven by strong economic fundamentals, an
   Canadian	dollar	movements,	giv-             appreciating Canadian dollar can help offset inflationary pressures brewing on
   ing	the	Bank	of	Canada	the	flex-
                                               the domestic front, allowing the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates low admist
   ibility	to	keep	rates	on	hold.
                                               global economic uncertainty. But, if this type of upside surprise on inflation were
                                               to continue, the Bank of Canada could be pushed off the sidelines sooner than
 Diana	Petramala,	                             expected. Here, we present the case why we think that the pass-through might be
 Economist	(Canada)                            more significant than the Bank of Canada research may suggest, and the upside
 416-982-6420                                  surprises in inflation going forward are unlikely to continue.
 mailto:diana.petramala@td.com	                    In doing so, we look at the relationship between goods, excluding food and
                                               energy, and the Canadian dollar. Examples of these goods are furniture, electronic
                                               equipment, clothing and footwear, and automobiles. Many of these goods are
                                                                   Observation                               TD Economics                      2
                                                                  November 24, 2010                          www.td.com/economics



          CANADIAN	CPI:	GOODS	EXCLUDING	FOOD	AND                        nadian dollar. By the same token, as the economy begins
             ENERGY VS. THE CANADIAN DOLLAR                             to improve and the Canadian dollar strengthens, they also
                  (y/y%	change,	normalized)                             do not pass-through the Canadian dollar appreciations in
   4                                                                    the form of lower consumer prices as retailers make up for
   3                       excess                                       lost revenue.
                          capacity
                                                                            This is consistent with the experience over the last two
   2                                             avrg. C$ 2 yr.
                                                    change              years. When the recession hit, retailers did not pass the
   1                                                =0.4%               full extent of the sharp Canadian dollar depreciation onto
   0                                                                    consumer prices. Annual inflation in goods went from a
  -1
                                                                        record low -3.42% in October 2008 to -0.31% in August
                                                                        2009 (6-months after the Canadian dollar low) – but this
  -2                       C$ lagged 6-months                           was not as large a swing as could have happened if retail-
                           Goods CPI ex. food and energy
  -3                                                                    ers had been willing or able to pass through the full extent
   1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009
                                                                        of the Canadian dollar depreciation onto consumer prices.
  Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics                             Since the low reached in April of 2009, the Canadian dollar
                                                                        has appreciated 20%, but the price of these goods has been
imported for consumption. As such, as economists, we call               accelerating through this year. Looking beyond the volatile
these goods tradable goods. If there were any pass-through              movements over the last two years tells a different story.
of the Canadian dollar onto consumer prices, it would be                At its current level of 98 U.S. cents, the Canadian dollar is
most evident in this component of the consumer basket. We               1.0% below its peak level in 2008 – which should act as an
find that in general, there is a tight relationship between the         inflationary pressure on good prices. However, the price of
price of goods excluding food and energy and the Canadian               goods, excluding food and energy, is 0.5% below its value
dollar. In fact, we have estimated that on average a 1%                 at the time the loonie peaked in 2008. The result being that
appreciation/depreciation in the Canadian dollar leads to a             retailers did not, or rather could not, pass along the depre-
0.4% decrease/increase in the price of these goods with a               ciation of the Canadian dollar onto consumers in the form
six-to-nine month lag. However, this relationship can vary,             of higher prices during the depths of the recession. The ac-
depending on the amount of economic slack in the economy.               celeration in goods inflation in October likely reflected the
For example, prices of goods that are heavily imported                  fact that the price of goods are now playing catch-up to the
moved very closely with the Canadian dollar over the time               Canadian dollar, as demand has improved over the last year.
periods of October 1999 to June 2002, and May 2006 to                       The changing dynamics have been most evident in the
December 2008 – periods when the Canadian economy was                   Canadian auto sector, which also happens to be the sector
operating above or close to full-capacity. Meanwhile, the               contributing the most to goods inflation. During the depths
relationship is less clear in times of heavy economic slack,            of the recession, the auto sector implemented deep discount-
such the most recent recession. On a short-term basis,
movements in the price of tradable goods and the Canadian                        GOODS	EXCLUDING	FOOD	AND	ENERGY	VS.	THE	
dollar may deviate, particularly during weak economic                                         CANADIAN DOLLAR
times. Over time, however, the cost of tradable goods will                 1.4           (level	indexed	at	Jan.	2008=1)	
ultimately be determined by the level of the Canadian dol-                                                              Canadian dollar
                                                                           1.3
lar and eventually the price of tradable goods will adjust to                          Depreciation
reflect movements in the Canadian dollar.                                  1.2
                                                                                                                        Goods, exc. food and
                                                                                                                        energy CPI
    While anecdotal, we can think of a simple rationale
                                                                           1.1
for the changing relationship. During times of economic
weakness in the past, interest rates were lowered, and the                 1.0
Canadian dollar weakened. Given the accumulation of slack
in the economy, retailers are stripped of their pricing power              0.9

during economic downturns and are unable to pass-through                   0.8
dollar depreciations onto consumer prices. As a result, dur-                Jan-2008   Jul-2008   Jan-2009   Jul-2009   Jan-2010   Jul-2010
ing economic downturns, the price level of tradable goods                  Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics
is likely below what it should be given the level of the Ca-
                                                                                     Observation                               TD Economics                        3
                                                                                    November 24, 2010                          www.td.com/economics



                                                                                          hold steady in a range of 98 U.S. cents through the first half
           COST TO PURCHASE AND LEASE AUTOMOTIVES
                                                                                          of 2011 as concerns over the U.S. economic outlook weigh
    0.4
                 Contribution to goods inflation, %             Price level
                                                                              105
                                                                                          on the Canadian currency. More importantly, we expect the
                                                                                          cost of goods, excluding food and energy, to take their cue
    0.2                                                                       100         from the slack in the Canadian economy. After delivering
    0.0                                                                       95
                                                                                          a V-shaped recovery in the early stages of the economic re-
                                                                                          covery, Canadian economic growth moderated to a 1-2.0%
   -0.2                                                                       90
                                                                                          pace in the second half of this year – and economic slack
   -0.4                                                                       85          is expected to be eaten-up at a much slower pace than was
                                                                                          experienced over the first year of the economic recovery.
   -0.6                                                                       80
                                                                                          In this environment, retailers may find it difficult to regain
   -0.8                                                                       75          pricing power.
          May-      Nov-      May-     Nov-      May-   Nov-   May-                           As such, the month’s acceleration in goods, excluding
          2007      2007      2008     2008      2009   2009   2010
                                                                                          food and energy, and overall inflation is likely to prove short-
 Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics                                                lived. We remain of the view that the Bank of Canada’s core
                                                                                          measure of inflation will continue to moderate through the
ing programs to attract buyers and clear high inventory levels                            first quarter of 2011 – reaching a trough of 1.5-1.6% - and
– despite the upward cost pressures faced by this sector as                               then only gradually returning to 2.0% by mid-2012. This
the Canadian dollar depreciated sharply. Now, as auto sales                               is consistent with our view that the Bank of Canada will
have improved significantly over the last year, auto retailers                            remain on hold until July of next year.
have started to remove some of the discounts offered during
2009, leading to sharp gains in the purchase and leasing of
                                                                                                          BANK OF CANADA CORE INFLATION
automobiles component of the consumer price index. While                                                      (year-over-year	%	change)
the annual price inflation of motor vehicles has risen sig-                                  3.0
nificantly over 2010, the consumer price of purchasing, or                                                                                              Forecast
                                                                                             2.5
leasing, an automobile remains well below 2008 levels.
Conclusion                                                                                   2.0


    The bottom line is that the Canadian dollar matters                                      1.5
significantly for the inflation outlook, particularly over the
                                                                                             1.0
medium-term. And, should inflation pressures brew on the
domestic front, a strong Canadian dollar could act as buffer                                 0.5
giving the Bank of Canada some breathing room with mon-
etary policy For now, however, the Canadian dollar does                                      0.0
                                                                                               2004    2005   2006   2007    2008   2009    2010   2011   2012
not pose a risk to our inflation outlook. While we have seen
some strength in the Canadian dollar recently, we simply                                    Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics, Forecast by TD
                                                                                            Economics as of October 2010
don’t see much further appreciation in the Canadian dollar
in the near-term. It is our view that the Canadian dollar will




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