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									 1 GO TO SHEET "Input_fiscal"

 2 CHECK if coverage of public sector is appropriate (input in the spreadsheet is based on WEO data for general government)

2.a      IF YES: CHANGE country code to that of your country in column "Series_Code"

             REFRESH by selecting EDSS refresh button

             CHECK if values are correct and insert those figures not refreshed via WEO (highlighted in yellow)

                  If WEO projections are outdated (or the "program" baseline projection differs from the WEO projection),
                  then hardcopy all relevant figures from your database/program projections.
                            (Do not refresh the sheet afterwards to avoid results being overwritten; alternatively, delete WEO in colu
                            prevent data from being refreshed)

2.b      IF NOT: HARDCOPY the relevant data into the spreadsheet from your database

             No-Policy-Change Scenario, Country-Specific Scenario and Market-Forecast Scenario data need to be hardcopied into th

             Parameters (based on the baseline) for short term debt, foreign currency debt, and amortization should be changed if mor

 3 Once "input_fiscal" is filled in correctly, the baseline and stress test results are automatically calibrated and summarized in
   the output tables in sheets "Table" (debt ratios) and "Table_GF" (gross financing need). For inclusion in briefs
   and SRs, use "Table_SR" which hides exchange rate projections and sheet "Panel Chart" which contains graphical
   representations of stress test outcomes.

 4 For shifting the calculations one year forward

      UPDATE the years in the "Input_fiscal" sheet with column S referring to the first year of projections, and REFRESH
      UPDATE the years in the "Table" sheet by changing the number in column S to represent the first projection year

      1/ If country-specific and/or market-forecast scenario is not presented, the scenarios A3 and A4 in Table_SR should be hidden, a

      For further clarification, please contact Jun Kim (x36363) or Charalambos Tsangarides (x35833) in Policy Review Division, PD




      When a Staff Report containing this DSA has been issued to the Board, please email a
      this file to PDRREVIEW (as per Mr. Allen's memo to Departments dated September
      and February 7, 2006).
EO data for general government)




ghted in yellow)

 from the WEO projection),

en; alternatively, delete WEO in column "database" to




rio data need to be hardcopied into the page 1/

mortization should be changed if more information is available.

y calibrated and summarized in
r inclusion in briefs
hich contains graphical




 ojections, and REFRESH
he first projection year

 A4 in Table_SR should be hidden, and the footnotes should be adjusted accordingly.

5833) in Policy Review Division, PDR




 he Board, please email a copy of
 ments dated September 9, 2005,
Units           Scale    Database       Series_Code Descriptor
                Billions WEO
National Currency                       W273GGD                  Public sector debt
                                                      General government, gross debt
                Billions WEO
National Currency                       W273GGB                  Public sector balance
                                                      General government balance
                Billions WEO
National Currency                                                Public sector expenditure
                                        W273GGENL General government, total expenditure and net lending
                Billions WEO
National Currency                       W273GGEI                 Public sector interest expenditure
                                                      General government expenditure, interest
                Billions WEO
National Currency                                                Public sector revenue and grants)
                                        W273GGRG General government, total revenue (and grants
                Billions WEO
National Currency                                                Gross domestic product, current prices
                                        W273NGDP Gross domestic product, current prices
                Billions WEO
National Currency                                                Gross domestic product, constant prices
                                        W273NGDP_RGross domestic product, constant prices
                None     RETS
National Currency per US Dollar                                  Exchange rate, national END
                                        273..ME.LM... MARKET EXCHANGE RATE, PD.currency per U.S. Dollar, end of period
                None     WEO
National Currency per US Dollar                                  Exchange currency per U.S. Dollar
                                        W273ENDA Exchange rate, nationalrate, national currency per U.S. Dollar, average
Index Number None        WEO                                     Gross domestic product deflator
                                        W273NGDP_DGross domestic product deflator




                Billions
National Currency                                            Foreign-currency denominated debt (expressed in local currency)
                Billions
National Currency                                            Privatization receipts (negative)
                Billions
National Currency                                            Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities
                Billions
National Currency                                            Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)
                Billions
National Currency                                            Amortization on MLT public sector debt
                Billions
National Currency                                            Short-term public sector debt
                Billions if available
National Currency                                            Interest payments on forex debt
                None
National Currency per US Dollar                              Exchange rate, national END
                                                     MARKET EXCHANGE RATE, PD.currency per U.S. Dollar, end of period

                                                                Formulas
                                                                GDP Deflator (percent change)
                                                                Real revenue and grants
                                                                Real non-interest expenditure
                                                                Growth in real revenues and grants
                                                                Growth of real non-interest expenditures
                                                                Share of foreign-currency denominated debt in total debt (previous peri
                                                                Interest rate on forex debt

                                                                Gross financing need
                                                                Average Maturity (MLT Debt/Amortization)
                                                                Short-term debt / total debt
              1996A1 1997A1             1998A1     1999A1      2000A1      2001A1      2002A1      2003A1      2004A1      2005A1      2006A1      2007A1
              14,666.4 19,037.5         20,788.9   28,023.1    36,741.6    46,087.9    62,676.5    83,431.5    97,585.7    #######     #######     #######
                -111.0     23.0         -1,007.0    -2,826.3    -4,764.0    -5,377.8    -8,293.7    -5,882.5    -6,097.0    -7,371.1    -6,092.9    -3,208.4
              12,055.0 16,600.0         22,394.0   29,987.2    38,177.0    43,377.0    50,441.3    55,073.6    62,581.0    68,214.5    76,126.5    85,485.2
               1,420.0  1,498.0          1,944.0     2,743.0     3,144.0     4,687.3     5,712.5     7,691.9     9,454.8     9,133.4   11,011.4    11,617.4
              11,944.0 16,623.0         21,387.0   27,160.9    33,373.7    37,729.3    41,456.5    48,983.3    55,644.6    60,012.5    69,580.7    81,120.8
              43,898.2 67,532.9         84,439.1   #######     #######     #######     #######     #######     #######     #######     #######     #######
              63,815.5 67,532.9         71,046.2   72,506.8    74,994.0    75,421.3    72,250.6    74,363.8    75,458.1    76,916.1    79,870.1    82,905.2
                 917.3    831.3            987.7     1,005.3     1,293.6     1,542.1     1,873.8     2,229.2     2,291.2     2,864.8     2,778.2     2,389.8
                 786.3    826.5            912.9     1,036.7     1,141.0     1,427.0     1,758.6     2,087.4     2,299.8     2,508.0     2,875.9     2,628.5
                  68.8    100.0            118.9       138.9       162.3       186.3       209.8       235.2       249.9       265.9       285.1       300.7

                                                                                                                               First year of
                          YELLOW CELLS TO BE FILLED IN                                                                         projections
              10,430.2      11,203.7 13,088.1 16,573.8 21,712.7 28,971.6 37,844.5 45,943.4 53,774.2 65,270.9 68,142.5 60,872.9
                   0.0      -1,391.8 -113.5     -779.9 -1,578.0   -149.1 -1,029.3   -885.8    -46.4    142.7    160.1    161.0
                                 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                                 0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                                               1,469.5 1,922.8 2,281.4 3,205.3 3,263.3 5,271.6 8,991.1 9,852.8 5,333.2
                                               1,298.4 1,212.1 1,505.1 1,259.2       443.6    733.2 1,243.3     622.3    929.0
                  746.3        945.5 1,013.3 1,030.1 1,200.4 1,599.9 2,174.2 2,744.0 4,258.7 4,217.6 4,902.6 4,653.7
                  917.3        831.3    987.7 1,005.3 1,293.6 1,542.1 1,873.8 2,229.2 2,291.2 2,864.8 2,778.2 2,389.8


                                45.37      18.85       16.87       16.84       14.77       12.62       12.11        6.25        6.41        7.23        5.48
                 17363.2      16623.0   17994.8     19554.4     20564.3     20255.8     19762.2     20827.1     22268.1     22568.5     24403.2     26973.0
                 15460.3      15102.0   17206.4     19614.4     21586.7     20771.4     21322.1     20146.1     21260.2     22218.2     22837.0     24561.3
                                 -4.3        8.3         8.7         5.2        -1.5        -2.4         5.4         6.9         1.3         8.1        10.5
                                 -2.3       13.9        14.0        10.1        -3.8         2.7        -5.5         5.5         4.5         2.8         7.6
                           period)
bt in total debt (previous 0.7111643    0.58851     0.62957     0.59143     0.59096     0.62862     0.60381     0.55067     0.55105     0.53211     0.53184
                           9.0646293    9.04406     7.87049     7.24253     7.36852     7.50452     7.25081     9.26949     7.84316     7.51123     6.82936

                              -23.0 1,007.0         4,295.8     7,985.3     8,871.2 13,004.1 10,405.0 11,812.2 17,095.3 17,189.0                    9,163.8
                           #DIV/0! #DIV/0!             18.2        18.5        19.5     19.2     25.4     18.4     13.5     12.9                       22.9
                                0.0     0.0             4.6         3.3         3.3      2.0      0.5      0.8      1.0      0.5                        0.8
2008A1      2009A1         2010A1       2011A1       2012A1       2013A1
#######      142,943.7      150,824.3    155,366.0    159,010.3    162,299.6
 -6,864.4     -5,928.4       -4,879.3     -3,334.5     -2,577.7     -2,439.7
95,341.9     101,557.6      107,067.4    113,636.1    120,423.8    128,389.0
13,627.9      14,219.4       13,010.0     12,257.5     11,960.1     12,569.2
88,908.4      95,391.0      102,540.6    110,726.7    118,243.4    126,269.2
#######      295,656.2      319,243.7    342,596.4    366,989.2    393,118.9
86,221.4      89,670.3       93,257.1     96,987.4    100,866.9    104,901.5
  2,567.4      2,799.5        2,913.4      2,956.7      2,994.1      3,022.7
  2,496.4      2,735.4        2,899.1      2,954.3      2,992.1      3,021.1
    313.7        329.7          342.3        353.2        363.8        374.8

First year of
projections
 66,945.1       72,047.8     76,575.7     78,567.5     80,808.7     83,396.2
       0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
       0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
       0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
  6,262.6        6,696.0      8,123.3      9,469.8     10,579.1     11,784.3
    998.0        1,088.3      1,253.3        994.4        598.0        178.7
  4,940.6        4,201.2      4,902.5      5,509.3      5,846.7      6,074.6
  2,269.6        2,486.9      2,635.8      2,686.0      2,720.3      2,746.7


     4.31            5.10      3.83      3.19      3.00      3.00
 28339.9         28931.4    29954.0   31346.2   32499.2   33694.2
 26046.7         26489.0    27476.0   28699.8   29811.2   30905.8
      5.1             2.1       3.5       4.6       3.7       3.7
      6.0             1.7       3.7       4.5       3.9       3.7
     0.49            0.50      0.50      0.51      0.51      0.51
 8.11631        6.275625 6.8044885 7.1945577 7.4415718 7.5172879

14,056.0        13,622.4     14,090.9     14,057.6     14,151.2     14,821.9
    21.2            21.2         18.4         16.3         15.0         13.8
     0.7             0.8          0.8          0.6          0.4          0.1
                                                                                        Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013
                                                                                            (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                                                                                                   Actual                                                                            Projections
                                                                                                2003     2004       2005     2006      2007                                    2008        2009     2010     2011        2012     2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Debt-stabilizing
                                                                                                                                                                                               I. Baseline Projections                        primary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             balance 10/
 1 Public sector debt 1/                                                                          47.7     51.8       60.0     56.3      49.4                                     49.5       48.3      47.2     45.3      43.3     41.3                  0.5
     o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                             26.3     28.5       31.9     29.9      24.4                                     24.7       24.4      24.0     22.9      22.0     21.2

 2 Change in public sector debt                                                                    6.4      4.1        8.2     -3.7      -6.9                                      0.1       -1.1      -1.1     -1.9      -2.0     -2.0
 3 Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                         1.9      0.9        7.1     -4.1      -7.1                                     -2.7        0.2      -0.7     -1.9      -2.1     -2.1
 4    Primary deficit                                                                             -0.9     -1.3       -0.5     -2.0      -2.9                                     -2.7       -2.7      -2.7     -2.7      -2.7     -2.7
 5       Revenue and grants                                                                       28.0     29.5       29.3     30.6      32.5                                     32.9       32.3      32.1     32.3      32.2     32.1
 6       Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                        27.1     28.2       28.9     28.6      29.6                                     30.2       29.5      29.5     29.6      29.6     29.5
 7    Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                   3.3      2.3        7.5     -2.2      -4.3                                      0.0        2.9       1.9      0.8       0.5      0.5
 8       Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                   -1.1      1.6        0.4     -1.3      -0.2                                      1.2        0.6       0.5      0.4       0.2      0.3
 9          Of which contribution from real interest rate                                         -0.1      2.2        1.3      0.8       1.7                                      3.0        2.4       2.3      2.1       1.9      1.9
10          Of which contribution from real GDP growth                                            -1.0     -0.7       -0.9     -2.1      -2.0                                     -1.8       -1.8      -1.8     -1.8      -1.7     -1.6
11       Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                           4.4      0.7        7.1     -0.9      -4.1                                     -1.2        2.3       1.4      0.5       0.3      0.2
12    Other identified debt-creating flows                                                        -0.5      0.0        0.1      0.1       0.1                                      0.0        0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0
13          Privatization receipts (negative)                                                     -0.5      0.0        0.1      0.1       0.1                                      0.0        0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0
14          Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                      0.0      0.0        0.0      0.0       0.0                                      0.0        0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0
15          Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                            0.0      0.0        0.0      0.0       0.0                                      0.0        0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0
16 Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                         4.5      3.1        1.1      0.4       0.3                                      2.8       -1.3      -0.4      0.0       0.1      0.1

   Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/                                                        170.3    175.4      204.4    184.1     151.8                                    150.6      149.9    147.1     140.3     134.5    128.5

   Gross financing need 5/                                                                         5.9       6.3       8.4      7.5       3.7                                      5.2        4.6       4.4      4.1       3.9      3.8
     in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                   5.0       5.1       6.8      6.0       3.5     10-Year       10-Year            5.6        5.0       4.9      4.8       4.7      4.9
                                                                                                                                                  Historical    Standard                                                                      Projected
   Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions                                                                                                       Average       Deviation                                                                     Average

   Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                    2.9      1.5        1.9       3.8      3.8           2.1           2.6          4.0        4.0       4.0      4.0        4.0      4.0          4.0
   Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 6/                                   12.3     11.3        9.4       9.0      9.1          11.1           1.6         11.1       10.6       9.1      8.1        7.7      7.9          8.7
   Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, in percent)              0.2      5.1        2.9       1.7      3.6          -0.7           4.3          6.8        5.5       5.3      4.9        4.7      4.9          5.1
   Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent)              -15.9     -2.7      -20.0       3.1     16.3          -9.3          12.4          5.3       -8.7      -5.6     -1.9       -1.3     -1.0         -3.7
   Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                      12.1      6.2        6.4       7.2      5.5          11.7           5.1          4.3        5.1       3.8      3.2        3.0      3.0          3.6
   Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                         -5.5      5.5        4.5       2.8      7.6           5.2           6.6          6.0        1.7       3.7      4.5        3.9      3.7          3.5
   Primary deficit                                                                                -0.9     -1.3       -0.5      -2.0     -2.9          -0.4           1.5         -2.7       -2.7      -2.7     -2.7       -2.7     -2.7         -2.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Debt-stabilizing
                                                                                                                                                                                         II. Stress Tests for Public Debt Ratio               primary
   A. Alternative Scenarios                                                                                                                                                                                                                  balance 10/
   A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 7/                                                                                                             49.5       48.6      47.8     46.6      45.3     43.9                   -1.0
   A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013                                                                                                                   49.5       48.4      47.3     45.4      43.4     41.4                    0.5
   B. Bound Tests
   B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one standard deviations                                                                                                             49.5       49.4      49.3     48.5      47.5     46.5                   1.5
   B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviation                                                                                                           49.5       49.4      49.7     49.6      49.8     50.4                   1.3
   B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviation                                                                                                           49.5       49.1      48.8     47.7      46.5     45.3                   0.6
   B4. Combination of B1-B3 using one-quarter standard deviation shocks                                                                                                           49.5       49.6      49.7     49.1      48.3     47.5                   1.4
   B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 9/                                                                                                                           49.5       59.1      58.4     56.7      54.8     52.9                   0.7
   B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009                                                                                                            49.5       58.3      57.6     55.9      54.0     52.1                   0.6


   1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
   2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency
   denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
   3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
   4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
   5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
   6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
   7/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
   8/ The implied change in other key variables under this scenario is discussed in the text.
   9/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
                                                                       Table 2. Country: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013
                                                                                   (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                                                                                                        Actual                                                  Projections
                                                                                                    2003      2004       2005      2006      2007         2008       2009      2010     2011        2012       2013     Debt-stabilizing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           primary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          balance 9/
 1 Baseline: Public sector debt 1/                                                                    47.7      51.8       60.0      56.3       49.4         49.5      48.3      47.2       45.3      43.3      41.3                 0.5
    o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                  26.3      28.5       31.9      29.9       24.4         24.7      24.4      24.0       22.9      22.0      21.2

 2 Change in public sector debt                                                                        6.4       4.1        8.2      -3.7       -6.9          0.1      -1.1      -1.1       -1.9      -2.0      -2.0
 3 Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                             1.9       0.9        7.1      -4.1       -7.1         -1.5      -2.1      -2.2       -2.4      -2.4      -2.3
 4 Primary deficit                                                                                    -0.9      -1.3       -0.5      -2.0       -2.9         -2.7      -2.7      -2.7       -2.7      -2.7      -2.7
 5     Revenue and grants                                                                             28.0      29.5       29.3      30.6       32.5         32.9      32.3      32.1       32.3      32.2      32.1
 6     Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                              27.1      28.2       28.9      28.6       29.6         30.2      29.5      29.5       29.6      29.6      29.5
 7 Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                          3.3       2.3        7.5      -2.2       -4.3          1.2       0.6       0.5        0.4       0.2       0.3
 8     Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                         -1.1       1.6        0.4      -1.3       -0.2          1.2       0.6       0.5        0.4       0.2       0.3
 9         Of which contribution from real interest rate                                              -0.1       2.2        1.3       0.8        1.7          3.0       2.4       2.3        2.1       1.9       1.9
10         Of which contribution from real GDP growth                                                 -1.0      -0.7       -0.9      -2.1       -2.0         -1.8      -1.8      -1.8       -1.8      -1.7      -1.6
11     Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                 4.4       0.7        7.1      -0.9       -4.1           ...       ...       ...        ...       ...       ...
12 Other identified debt-creating flows                                                               -0.5       0.0        0.1       0.1        0.1          0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
13         Privatization receipts (negative)                                                          -0.5       0.0        0.1       0.1        0.1          0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
14         Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                           0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0          0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
15         Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                 0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0          0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0
16 Residual, including asset changes (2-3) 5/                                                          4.5       3.1        1.1       0.4        0.3          1.6       1.0       1.1        0.5       0.4       0.3

   Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/                                                            170.3     175.4     204.4      184.1     151.8        150.6      149.9     147.1     140.3      134.5     128.5

   Gross financing need 6/                                                                             5.9        6.3       8.4        7.5       3.7          5.2        4.6       4.4       4.1        3.9      3.8
    in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                        5.0        5.1       6.8        6.0       3.5          5.6        5.0       4.9       4.8        4.7      4.9

   Scenario with key variables at their historical averages 7/                                                                                               49.5      48.6      47.8       46.6      45.3      43.9               -1.0
   Scenario with no policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013                                                                                    49.5      48.4      47.3       45.4      43.4      41.4                0.5

   Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions Underlying Baseline

   Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                        2.9       1.5        1.9        3.8       3.8          4.0       4.0        4.0       4.0        4.0      4.0
   Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 8/                                       12.3      11.3        9.4        9.0       9.1         11.1      10.6        9.1       8.1        7.7      7.9
   Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, in percent)                  0.2       5.1        2.9        1.7       3.6          6.8       5.5        5.3       4.9        4.7      4.9
   Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent)                  -15.9      -2.7      -20.0        3.1      16.3           ...       ...        ...       ...        ...      ...
   Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                          12.1       6.2        6.4        7.2       5.5          4.3       5.1        3.8       3.2        3.0      3.0
   Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                             -5.5       5.5        4.5        2.8       7.6          6.0       1.7        3.7       4.5        3.9      3.7
   Primary deficit                                                                                    -0.9      -1.3       -0.5       -2.0      -2.9         -2.7      -2.7       -2.7      -2.7       -2.7     -2.7

   1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
   2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency
   denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
   3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
   4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
   5/ For projections, this line includes exchange rate changes.
   6/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
   7/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
   8/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
   9/ Assumes that key variables (real GDP growth, real interest rate, and other identified debt-creating flows) remain at the level of the last projection year.
                     Figure 2. Country: Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/
                                              (Public debt in percent of GDP)

          Baseline and historical scenarios                                       Interest rate shock (in percent)
65                                                                9   65
                                  Gross financing need                                               Baseline:           5.1
                                     under baseline
                                                                  8                                  Scenario:           7.2
60                                    (right scale)                   60
                                                                                                     Historical:     -0.7
                                                                  7
55                                                                    55
                               Baseline
                                                                  6                                                i-rate
50                                            Historical              50                                           shock
                                                                  5                                                            46
                                                            44
45                                                                    45                                Baseline
                                                            41    4
                                                                                                                               41

40                                                                3   40
 2003         2005      2007       2009         2011        2013        2003        2005     2007     2009         2011        2013
                                                                          Primary balance shock (in percent of GDP) and
       Growth shock (in percent per year)                              no policy change scenario (constant primary balance)
65                                                                    65
                                Baseline:        4.0                                                 Baseline:        2.7
60                              Scenario:        2.7                  60                             Scenario:        1.9
                                Historical:      2.1                                                 Historical:      0.4

55                                                                    55
                                              Growth
                                              shock        50                                       No policy change
50                                                                    50                                             PB shock
                                                                                                                               45
45                                  Baseline                          45
                                                           41                                                    Baseline
                                                                                                                               41
                                                                                                                               41
40                                                                    40
 2003        2005       2007      2009        2011         2013            2003     2005     2007     2009         2011        2013


                 Combined shock 2/                                    Real depreciation and contingent liabilities shocks 3/
65                                                                    65

                                                                                                                 30 %
60                                                                    60                                      depreciation



                                                                                                                               53
55                                                                    55                                  contingent
                                              Combined
                                                                                                           liabilities
                                               shock                                                         shock             52
50                                                         48         50

                                                                                                     Baseline
45                                                                    45
                                      Baseline             41                                                                   41

40                                                                    40
 2003        2005       2007      2009        2011         2013            2003      2005    2007     2009         2011        2013

     Sources: International Monetary Fund, country desk data, and staff estimates.
     1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the
     boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year
     historical average for the variable is also shown.
     2/ Permanent 1/4 standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and primary balance.
     3/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent and 10 percent of GDP shock to contingent liabilities occur in 2009, with real
     depreciation defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic
     inflation (based on GDP deflator).



                                                 D:\Docstoc\Working\pdf\d7d82944-f960-4fba-81d9-6371fd05a604.xls PanelChart 2/25/2011
inflation (based on GDP deflator).




                                     D:\Docstoc\Working\pdf\d7d82944-f960-4fba-81d9-6371fd05a604.xls PanelChart 2/25/2011
                                                  Table --. Country: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework--Gross Publ
                                                                                   (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indica




Gross financing need 1/
 in billions of U.S. dollars


Gross financing need 2/
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 3/
A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations
B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B4. Combination of B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 5/
B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009

Gross financing need in billions of U.S. dollars 2/
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 3/
A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations
B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B4. Combination of B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 5/
B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009


1/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
2/ Gross financing under the stress test scenarios is derived by assuming the same ratio of short-term to total debt as in the baseline sce
term debt. Interest expenditures are derived by applying the respective interest rate to the previous period debt stock under each altern
3/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
4/ The implied change in other key variables under this scenario is discussed in the text.
5/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic
nability Framework--Gross Public Sector Financing Need, 2003-2013
of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                    Actual                                                 Projections
                2003      2004       2005     2006      2007          2008        2009    2010     2011    2012    2013

                                                         I. Baseline Projections

                    5.9       6.3       8.4      7.5       3.7            5.2       4.6      4.4     4.1     3.9     3.8
                    5.0       5.1       6.8      6.0       3.5            5.6       5.0      4.9     4.8     4.7     4.9

                                                               II. Stress Tests



                                                                          5.0       4.2      3.9     3.9     3.9     3.9
                                                                          5.0       4.7      4.3     4.1     3.8     3.7


                                                                          5.0       5.7      5.5     5.3     5.3     5.4
                                                                          5.0       5.2      5.3     5.6     6.1     6.8
                                                                          5.0       5.5      5.2     5.0     4.9     5.0
                                                                          5.0       5.7      5.5     5.3     5.3     5.4
                                                                          5.0       5.2      5.9     5.6     5.4     5.4
                                                                          5.0       5.2      5.8     5.5     5.3     5.3




                                                                          5.5       4.5      4.2     4.3     4.4     4.6
                                                                          5.5       5.1      4.7     4.7     4.6     4.8


                                                                          5.5       6.2      6.1     6.2     6.4     7.0
                                                                          5.5       5.5      5.7     6.3     7.1     8.3
                                                                          5.5       5.9      5.8     5.8     6.0     6.5
                                                                          5.5       6.1      5.9     6.1     6.3     6.9
                                                                          5.5       4.0      4.6     4.6     4.7     5.0
                                                                          5.5       5.6      6.4     6.4     6.5     6.9


plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
m to total debt as in the baseline scenario and the same average maturity on medium- and long
period debt stock under each alternative scenario.


e of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
                                                           Historical                                   Projections
                                           2003    2004         2005    2006    2007    2008    2009
               Historical scenario
Historical scenario                         47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    48.6
GFN            GFN                           5.9     6.3          8.4     7.5     3.7     5.2     4.6
i-rate         i-rate                       47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    49.4
Growth         Growth                       47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    49.4
PB             PB                           47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    49.1
Combined       Combined                     47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    49.6
30 % baseline 30 % baseline                 47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    59.1
               contingent liabilities       47.7    51.8         60.0   56.3     49.4    49.5    58.3
               Baseline                    47.7    51.8         60.0    56.3    49.4    49.5    48.3
                                           47.7
               Scenario with no policy change      51.8         60.0    56.3    49.4    49.5    48.4
               Shade                          65     65           65      65      65
Projections                                         m                   s
2010        2011    2012    2013    Baseline   Scenario   Historical
 47.8        46.6    45.3    43.9
  4.4         4.1     3.9     3.8
 49.3        48.5    47.5    46.5     5.1        7.2        -0.7        4.3
 49.7        49.6    49.8    50.4     4.0        2.7         2.1        2.6
 48.8        47.7    46.5    45.3     2.7        1.9         0.4       1.54
 49.7        49.1    48.3    47.5
 58.4        56.7    54.8    52.9
 57.6        55.9    54.0    52.1
 47.2       45.3    43.3    41.3
 47.3       45.4    43.4    41.4
                                                                                            Alternative Scenario 1: Key Varia
                                                                                                   (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                     1998     1999

                                                                                                            I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                         28.2    24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                     15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                          -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                               -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                     -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                        24.6    25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                         22.4    24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                          -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                            -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                    2.7       0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                           1.3       1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                -0.1      -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                               -0.1      -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                                0.0       0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                      0.0       0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                               -1.7       4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                        114.5    97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                     1.2       4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                           1.1       4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                           5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                             10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                            9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                       -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                             831.3   987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                               0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)               -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                             18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                13.9   14.0

                                                                       Stress Test: Real GDP growth, real interest rate, and prim
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.




Nominal spending
 Increase in percent
  Increase in real spending in percent




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
ve Scenario 1: Key Variables at Historical Average
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                              Actual                                                           Projections
               2000     2001      2002     2003   2004       2005      2006       2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

   I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                 30.2      32.8    41.4      47.7     51.8     60.0      56.3       49.4       49.5    48.6     47.8    46.6
                 17.8      20.6    25.0      26.3     28.5     31.9      29.9       24.4       24.7    24.5     24.3    23.6

                  2.4       2.6     8.5       6.4      4.1      8.2      -3.7       -6.9        0.1    -0.9     -0.8    -1.3
                  2.0       3.1     7.3       1.9      0.9      7.1      -4.1       -7.1       -2.7     0.4     -0.4    -1.3
                  1.4       0.7     2.2      -0.9     -1.3     -0.5      -2.0       -2.9       -2.7    -0.4     -0.4    -0.4
                 27.4      26.9    27.4      28.0     29.5     29.3      30.6       32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                 28.8      27.5    29.5      27.1     28.2     28.9      28.6       29.6       30.2    31.8     31.7    31.9
                  2.0       2.5     5.8       3.3      2.3      7.5      -2.2       -4.3        0.0     0.9      0.1    -0.8
                 -2.2      -0.7     1.4      -1.1      1.6      0.4      -1.3       -0.2        1.2    -1.3     -1.3    -1.3
                                                                                     1.7        3.0    -0.4     -0.3    -0.3
                                                                                    -2.0       -1.8    -1.0     -1.0    -1.0
                  4.2       3.2      4.4      4.4      0.7       7.1     -0.9       -4.1       -1.2     2.2      1.4     0.4
                  1.2       1.2      1.1      1.2      1.1       1.1      1.1        1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                 -1.3      -0.1     -0.7     -0.5      0.0       0.1      0.1        0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                 -1.3      -0.1     -0.7     -0.5      0.0       0.1      0.1        0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.3      -0.4      1.3      4.5      3.1       1.1      0.4        0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

                110.1     122.2   151.2     170.3    175.4    204.4     184.1      151.8      150.6   150.6    148.9   144.1

                  6.6       6.3     8.6       5.9      6.3       8.4      7.5         3.7       5.0     4.2      3.9     3.9
                  7.0       6.2     7.4       5.0      5.1       6.8      6.0         3.5       5.5     4.5      4.2     4.3




                                                                                 #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                 3.4       0.6   -4.2         2.9      1.5      1.9       3.8         3.8        4.0     2.1     2.1     2.1
                11.2      12.8   12.4        12.3     11.3      9.4       9.0         9.1      11.1      4.4     3.2     2.5
                 7.2       7.4    7.5         7.3      9.3      7.8       7.5         6.8        8.1     0.1     0.9     1.6
                -5.6      -2.0   -0.2         0.2      5.1      2.9       1.7         3.6        6.8    -0.7    -0.7    -0.7
              1293.6    1542.1 1873.8      2229.2   2291.2   2864.8    2778.2     2389.8     2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
                28.7      19.2   21.5        19.0      2.8     25.0      -3.0       -14.0       -5.0     9.6     6.0     1.9
                 0.0       0.0    0.0         0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0         0.0        0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
               -22.3     -16.1 -17.7        -15.9     -2.7    -20.0       3.1        16.3        5.3    -8.7    -5.6    -1.9
                16.8      14.8   12.6        12.1      6.2      6.4       7.2         5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
                10.1      -3.8    2.7        -5.5      5.5      4.5       2.8         7.6        6.0     7.6     1.6     2.7

real interest rate, and primary balance are at historical average in 2006-2010
                                                   Historical          Standard
                                                   Average            Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.




                                                                                  73867.8     81714.0 92374.0 97479.6 #######
                                                                                                 10.6    13.0     5.5     6.0
                                                                                                  6.0     7.6     1.6     2.7




                                                                                  #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0 1073.8 1223.0     966.3
                                                                                               6262.6 6606.8 7927.2 9202.7
                                                                                             13627.9 5934.8 4456.7 3712.5
                                                                                              -7194.4 -1276.5 -1353.2 -1425.6
                                                                                             13625.2 12263.1 12104.5 12712.6
                                                                                               2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                45.3     43.9
                23.0     22.6

                -1.3     -1.4                 0.0
                -1.4     -1.4                 0.0
                -0.4     -0.4                 1.0
                32.2     32.1
                31.8     31.7
                -1.0     -1.0                -1.0
                -1.3     -1.2                -1.2
                -0.3     -0.3                -0.3
                -0.9     -0.9                -0.9
                 0.3      0.2                 0.2
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               140.6    136.8

                 3.9      3.9
                 4.4      4.6
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  2.1     2.1                 2.1
                  2.3     2.3                 2.3
                  2.1     1.9                 1.9
                 -0.7    -0.7                -0.7
              2720.3 2746.7
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
                  0.0     0.0
                 -1.3    -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  1.8     1.8
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               ####### #######
                   4.8     4.8
                   1.8     1.8




               #######    #######
                  580.6      173.4
               10271.8    11437.4
                 3525.3     3604.9
                -1499.3    -1576.7
               13264.2    14046.1
                 2992.1     3021.1
                                                                                                 Alternative Scenario 2: N
                                                                                                              (In percent


                                                                                                  1998

                                                                                                                   I. Base

Public sector debt 1/                                                                     28.2      24.6
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                   15.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                        -3.6
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                             -1.9
  Primary deficit                                                                                   -1.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                    24.6      25.3
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                     22.4      24.2
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                        -0.6
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                          -3.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                   2.7
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                          1.3
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                               -0.1
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                              -0.1
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                               0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                     0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                              -1.7

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                    114.5      97.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                   1.2
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                         1.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                         5.2
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                           10.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                          9.0
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                     -8.6
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                         831.3     987.7
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                              18.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                           0.0       0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)             -15.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                           18.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                              13.9

                                                                                                 Stress Tests: Primary bala
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.

Nominal spending
 Increase in percent
  Increase in real spending in percent




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Alternative Scenario 2: No Policy Change (Constant Primary Balance)
             (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                                            Actual                                                         P
           1999         2000       2001      2002       2003       2004           2005     2006       2007       2008

                      I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

              27.8         30.2      32.8       41.4        47.7       51.8         60.0     56.3        49.4       49.5
              16.5         17.8      20.6       25.0        26.3       28.5         31.9     29.9        24.4       24.7

               3.2          2.4       2.6        8.5         6.4        4.1          8.2     -3.7        -6.9        0.1
              -1.7          2.0       3.1        7.3         1.9        0.9          7.1     -4.1        -7.1       -2.7
               0.1          1.4       0.7        2.2        -0.9       -1.3         -0.5     -2.0        -2.9       -2.7
              27.0         27.4      26.9       27.4        28.0       29.5         29.3     30.6        32.5       32.9
              27.1         28.8      27.5       29.5        27.1       28.2         28.9     28.6        29.6       30.2
              -1.0          2.0       2.5        5.8         3.3        2.3          7.5     -2.2        -4.3       -0.1
              -1.3         -2.2      -0.7        1.4        -1.1        1.6          0.4     -1.3        -0.2        1.2
                                                                                                          1.7        3.0
                                                                                                         -2.0       -1.8
                0.3          4.2       3.2        4.4        4.4        0.7          7.1      -0.9       -4.1       -1.3
                1.2          1.2       1.2        1.1        1.2        1.1          1.1       1.1        1.1        1.1
               -0.8         -1.3      -0.1       -0.7       -0.5        0.0          0.1       0.1        0.1        0.0
               -0.8         -1.3      -0.1       -0.7       -0.5        0.0          0.1       0.1        0.1        0.0
                0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0
                0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0
                4.9          0.3      -0.4        1.3        4.5        3.1          1.1       0.4        0.3        2.8

             103.2        110.1     122.2      151.2      170.3       175.4        204.4    184.1       151.8      150.5

               4.3          6.6       6.3        8.6         5.9        6.3          8.4      7.5         3.7        5.0
               4.1          7.0       6.2        7.4         5.0        5.1          6.8      6.0         3.5        5.5




                                                                                                     249336.3   270495.2
               2.1          3.4       0.6       -4.2        2.9        1.5           1.9      3.8         3.8        4.0
              13.2         11.2      12.8       12.4       12.3       11.3           9.4      9.0         9.1       11.1
               7.9          7.2       7.4        7.5        7.3        9.3           7.8      7.5         6.8       11.1
              -3.7         -5.6      -2.0       -0.2        0.2        5.1           2.9      1.7         3.6        6.8
            1005.3       1293.6    1542.1     1873.8     2229.2     2291.2        2864.8   2778.2      2389.8     2269.6
               1.8         28.7      19.2       21.5       19.0        2.8          25.0     -3.0       -14.0       -5.0
               0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0           0.0      0.0         0.0        0.0
              -1.8        -22.3     -16.1      -17.7      -15.9       -2.7         -20.0      3.1        16.3        5.3
              16.9         16.8      14.8       12.6       12.1        6.2           6.4      7.2         5.5        4.3
              14.0         10.1      -3.8        2.7       -5.5        5.5           4.5      2.8         7.6        6.0

Stress Tests: Primary balance is constant at the 2005 level in projection years
                                                                         Historical              Standard
                                                                         Average                Deviation

                                                                               -0.4                    1.5
                                                                                2.1                    2.6
                                                                               11.1                    1.6
                                                                               -0.7                    4.3
                                                                               11.7                    5.1
                                                                               28.4                    2.1


hether net or gross debt is used.
rest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depr
d the real growth contribution as -g.

us short-term debt at end of previous period.


                                                                                                              73867.8       81714.0
                                                                                                                               10.6
                                                                                                                                6.0




                                                                                                             123147.1      133792.3
                                                                                                                929.0         997.4
                                                                                                                             6258.4
                                                                                                                            13627.9
                                                                                                                            -7194.4
                                                                                                                            13620.9
                                                                                                                             2496.4
            Projections
 2009     2010       2011     2012     2013
                                                Debt-stabilizing
                                                   primary
                                                    deficit
   48.4      47.3      45.4     43.4     41.4
   24.4      24.0      23.0     22.1     21.3

   -1.1      -1.1      -1.8     -2.0     -2.0                0.0
    0.2      -0.7      -1.8     -2.1     -2.1                0.0
   -2.7      -2.7      -2.7     -2.7     -2.7               -0.5
   32.9      32.9      32.9     32.9     32.9
   30.2      30.2      30.2     30.2     30.2
    2.9       1.9       0.8      0.5      0.5                0.5
    0.6       0.5       0.4      0.2      0.3                0.3
    2.4       2.3       2.1      1.9      1.9                1.8
   -1.8      -1.8      -1.8     -1.7     -1.6               -1.5
    2.3       1.4       0.5      0.3      0.2                0.2
    1.1       1.1       1.1      1.1      1.1                1.1
    0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0                0.0
    0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0                0.0
    0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0                0.0
    0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0                0.0
   -1.3      -0.4       0.0      0.1      0.1                0.0

  147.2     143.8     138.3    132.1    125.9

    4.7       4.3       4.1      3.8      3.7
    5.1       4.7       4.7      4.6      4.8
                                                    For debt
                                                  stabilization

295656.2 319243.7 342596.4 366989.2 393118.9
     4.0      4.0      4.0      4.0      4.0                 4.0
    10.6      9.1      8.1      7.7      7.9                 7.9
     6.3      6.8      7.2      7.4      7.5                 7.5
     5.5      5.3      4.9      4.7      4.9                 4.9
  2486.9   2635.8   2686.0   2720.3   2746.7
     9.6      6.0      1.9      1.3      1.0                 1.0
     0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
    -8.7     -5.6     -1.9     -1.3     -1.0                -1.0
     5.1      3.8      3.2      3.0      3.0                 3.0
     4.0      4.0      4.0      4.0      4.0
d e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




                 89314.9    96440.4 103495.1 110863.9 118757.4
                     9.3        8.0      7.3      7.1      7.1
                     4.0        4.0      4.0      4.0      4.0




               143028.5 150911.9 155697.5 159388.5 162703.4
                 1088.9   1254.0    996.5    599.4    179.2
                 6700.0   8128.0   9490.0 10604.3 11813.6
                14209.8 13017.7 12264.6 11985.6 12599.1
                -7863.6  -8490.9  -9112.0  -9760.8 -10455.8
                14043.6 13743.7 13896.6 13825.6 14556.3
                 2735.4   2899.1   2954.3   2992.1   3021.1
                                                                                                          Bound Test 1: Real Inte
                                                                                                       (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                       1998     1999

                                                                                                              I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                           28.2    24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                       15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                            -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                                 -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                       -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                          24.6    25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                           22.4    24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                            -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                              -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                       2.7      0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                              1.3      1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                   -0.1     -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                                  -0.1     -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                                   0.0      0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                         0.0      0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                                  -1.7      4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                         114.5     97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                        1.2      4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                              1.1      4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                             5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                               10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                              9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                         -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                              831.3    987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                  18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                                 0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)                 -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                               18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                  13.9   14.0

                                                                              Stress Test: Real interest rate is at baseline plus one
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
 Bound Test 1: Real Interest Rate Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                              Actual                                                             Projections
               2000     2001      2002     2003   2004        2005     2006         2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

   I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                 30.2      32.8    41.4      47.7     51.8      60.0        56.3      49.4       49.5    49.4     49.3    48.5
                 17.8      20.6    25.0      26.3     28.5      31.9        29.9      24.4       24.7    24.9     25.1    24.5

                  2.4       2.6     8.5       6.4      4.1       8.2        -3.7      -6.9        0.1    -0.1      0.0    -0.9
                  2.0       3.1     7.3       1.9      0.9       7.1        -4.1      -7.1       -2.7     1.2      0.4    -0.9
                  1.4       0.7     2.2      -0.9     -1.3      -0.5        -2.0      -2.9       -2.7    -2.7     -2.7    -2.7
                 27.4      26.9    27.4      28.0     29.5      29.3        30.6      32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                 28.8      27.5    29.5      27.1     28.2      28.9        28.6      29.6       30.2    29.5     29.5    29.6
                  2.0       2.5     5.8       3.3      2.3       7.5        -2.2      -4.3        0.0     3.9      3.0     1.9
                 -2.2      -0.7     1.4      -1.1      1.6       0.4        -1.3      -0.2        1.2     1.6      1.5     1.4
                                                                                       1.7        3.0     3.4      3.3     3.2
                                                                                      -2.0       -1.8    -1.8     -1.8    -1.8
                  4.2       3.2      4.4      4.4       0.7      7.1        -0.9      -4.1       -1.2     2.4      1.5     0.5
                  1.2       1.2      1.1      1.2       1.1      1.1         1.1       1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                 -1.3      -0.1     -0.7     -0.5       0.0      0.1         0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                 -1.3      -0.1     -0.7     -0.5       0.0      0.1         0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0         0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0         0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.3      -0.4      1.3      4.5       3.1      1.1         0.4       0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

               110.1     122.2    151.2     170.3    175.4     204.4    184.1        151.8      150.6   153.0    153.6   150.0

                  6.6       6.3     8.6       5.9       6.3      8.4         7.5        3.7       5.0     5.7      5.5     5.3
                  7.0       6.2     7.4       5.0       5.1      6.8         6.0        3.5       5.5     6.2      6.1     6.2




                                                                                   #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                 3.4       0.6   -4.2         2.9      1.5       1.9      3.8           3.8        4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0
                11.2      12.8   12.4        12.3     11.3       9.4      9.0           9.1      11.1    12.8    11.3    10.3
                 7.2       7.4    7.5         7.3      9.3       7.8      7.5           6.8        8.1     8.4     9.0     9.4
                -5.6      -2.0   -0.2         0.2      5.1       2.9      1.7           3.6        6.8     7.7     7.4     7.1
              1293.6    1542.1 1873.8      2229.2   2291.2    2864.8   2778.2       2389.8     2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
                28.7      19.2   21.5        19.0      2.8      25.0     -3.0         -14.0       -5.0     9.6     6.0     1.9
                 0.0       0.0    0.0         0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0           0.0        0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
               -22.3     -16.1 -17.7        -15.9     -2.7     -20.0      3.1          16.3        5.3    -8.7    -5.6    -1.9
                16.8      14.8   12.6        12.1      6.2       6.4      7.2           5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
                10.1      -3.8    2.7        -5.5      5.5       4.5      2.8           7.6        6.0     1.7     3.7     4.5

rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations in projection years
                                                   Historical          Standard
                                                   Average            Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.




                                                                                  #######    #######    #######    #######    #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0     1111.5     1308.9     1063.2
                                                                                               6262.6     6838.8     8483.7   10125.6
                                                                                             13627.9    17128.1    16459.1    16223.3
                                                                                              -7194.4    -8052.8    -8483.2    -9348.0
                                                                                             13625.2    16912.1    17571.1    18309.8
                                                                                               2496.4     2735.4     2899.1     2954.3
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                47.5     46.5
                24.1     23.9

                -1.0     -1.0                 0.0
                -1.1     -1.1                 0.0
                -2.7     -2.7                -1.5
                32.2     32.1
                29.6     29.5
                 1.6      1.6                 1.5
                 1.2      1.3                 1.3
                 3.1      3.1                 3.0
                -1.8     -1.8                -1.7
                 0.3      0.2                 0.2
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               147.4    144.7

                 5.3      5.4
                 6.4      7.0
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  4.0     4.0                4.0
                  9.9   10.1                10.1
                  9.6     9.7                9.7
                  6.9     7.1                7.1
              2720.3 2746.7
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
                  0.0     0.0
                 -1.3    -1.0                -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  3.9     3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               #######    #######
                  655.5      201.2
               11596.7     13264.8
               16397.5     17565.0
                -9779.7   -10449.5
               19277.7     21035.9
                 2992.1     3021.1
                                                                                                           Bound Test 2: Real O
                                                                                                     (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                     1998     1999

                                                                                                            I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                        28.2     24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                     15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                          -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                               -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                     -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                       24.6     25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                        22.4     24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                          -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                            -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                     2.7      0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                            1.3      1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                 -0.1     -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                                -0.1     -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                                 0.0      0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                       0.0      0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                                -1.7      4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                       114.5     97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                     1.2       4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                           1.1       4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                           5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                             10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                            9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                       -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                            831.3    987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                               0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)               -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                             18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                13.9   14.0

                                                                            Stress Test: Real GDP growth is at baseline minus on
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
    Bound Test 2: Real Output Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                             Actual                                                              Projections
               2000     2001      2002    2003   2004        2005     2006          2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

   I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                 30.2      32.8    41.4     47.7      51.8     60.0     56.3          49.4       49.5    49.4     49.7    49.6
                 17.8      20.6    25.0     26.3      28.5     31.9     29.9          24.4       24.7    24.9     25.2    25.1

                  2.4       2.6     8.5      6.4       4.1      8.2     -3.7          -6.9        0.1    -0.1      0.3    -0.1
                  2.0       3.1     7.3      1.9       0.9      7.1     -4.1          -7.1       -2.7     1.2      0.7    -0.1
                  1.4       0.7     2.2     -0.9      -1.3     -0.5     -2.0          -2.9       -2.7    -2.4     -1.9    -1.6
                 27.4      26.9    27.4     28.0      29.5     29.3     30.6          32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                 28.8      27.5    29.5     27.1      28.2     28.9     28.6          29.6       30.2    29.9     30.2    30.7
                  2.0       2.5     5.8      3.3       2.3      7.5     -2.2          -4.3        0.0     3.6      2.6     1.5
                 -2.2      -0.7     1.4     -1.1       1.6      0.4     -1.3          -0.2        1.2     1.2      1.1     1.0
                                                                                       1.7        3.0     2.5      2.4     2.3
                                                                                      -2.0       -1.8    -1.2     -1.3    -1.3
                  4.2       3.2     4.4       4.4      0.7      7.1         -0.9      -4.1       -1.2     2.3      1.5     0.5
                  1.2       1.2     1.1       1.2      1.1      1.1          1.1       1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                 -1.3      -0.1    -0.7      -0.5      0.0      0.1          0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                 -1.3      -0.1    -0.7      -0.5      0.0      0.1          0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0     0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.0       0.0     0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0          0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  0.3      -0.4     1.3       4.5      3.1      1.1          0.4       0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

               110.1     122.2    151.2    170.3     175.4    204.4    184.1         151.8      150.6   153.0    154.7   153.5

                  6.6       6.3     8.6      5.9       6.3      8.4         7.5         3.7       5.0     5.2      5.3     5.6
                  7.0       6.2     7.4      5.0       5.1      6.8         6.0         3.5       5.5     5.5      5.7     6.3




                                                                                   #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                 3.4       0.6   -4.2        2.9       1.5      1.9      3.8            3.8        4.0     2.7     2.7     2.7
                11.2      12.8   12.4       12.3      11.3      9.4      9.0            9.1      11.1    10.6      9.1     8.1
                 7.2       7.4    7.5        7.3       9.3      7.8      7.5            6.8        8.1     6.3     6.8     7.2
                -5.6      -2.0   -0.2        0.2       5.1      2.9      1.7            3.6        6.8     5.5     5.3     4.9
              1293.6    1542.1 1873.8     2229.2    2291.2   2864.8   2778.2        2389.8     2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
                28.7      19.2   21.5       19.0       2.8     25.0     -3.0          -14.0       -5.0     9.6     6.0     1.9
                 0.0       0.0    0.0        0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0            0.0        0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
               -22.3     -16.1 -17.7       -15.9      -2.7    -20.0      3.1           16.3        5.3    -8.7    -5.6    -1.9
                16.8      14.8   12.6       12.1       6.2      6.4      7.2            5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
                10.1      -3.8    2.7       -5.5       5.5      4.5      2.8            7.6        6.0     1.7     3.7     4.5

wth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations in projection years
                                                   Historical          Standard
                                                   Average            Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.




                                                                                  #######    #######    #######    #######    #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0     1097.3     1285.5     1047.6
                                                                                               6262.6     6751.7     8332.1     9977.0
                                                                                             13627.9    14219.4    13118.2    12572.5
                                                                                              -7194.4    -6863.8    -5942.7    -5258.7
                                                                                             13625.2    15105.4    16604.9    18576.2
                                                                                               2496.4     2735.4     2899.1     2954.3
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                49.8     50.4
                25.3     25.9

                 0.2      0.6                 0.0
                 0.1      0.5                 0.0
                -1.1     -0.8                -1.3
                32.2     32.1
                31.1     31.4
                 1.2      1.2                 1.3
                 0.9      1.0                 1.0
                 2.2      2.3                 2.3
                -1.3     -1.3                -1.3
                 0.3      0.2                 0.3
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               154.6    156.9

                 6.1      6.8
                 7.1      8.3
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  2.7     2.7                 2.7
                  7.7     7.9                 7.9
                  7.4     7.5                 7.5
                  4.7     4.9                 4.9
              2720.3 2746.7
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
                  0.0     0.0
                 -1.3    -1.0                -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  3.9     3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               #######    #######
                  653.7      204.8
               11564.2    13507.3
               12600.6    13739.5
                -3993.3    -2773.4
               21219.1    25127.1
                 2992.1     3021.1
                                                                                                            Bound Test 3: Primary Balance Shock
                                                                                                        (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                                                                                                                                          Actual                                                                  Projections
                                                                                                        1998      1999    2000     2001      2002      2003   2004           2005       2006       2007      2008      2009      2010     2011       2012      2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Debt-stabilizing
                                                                                                               I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections                                                                                                                         primary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            deficit
Public sector debt 1/                                                                            28.2    24.6      27.8    30.2       32.8     41.4      47.7       51.8       60.0       56.3       49.4      49.5      49.1      48.8      47.7      46.5      45.3
    o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                     15.5      16.5    17.8       20.6     25.0      26.3       28.5       31.9       29.9       24.4      24.7      24.8      24.8      24.1      23.6      23.3

Change in public sector debt                                                                             -3.6       3.2     2.4        2.6      8.5       6.4        4.1        8.2       -3.7       -6.9       0.1      -0.4      -0.3      -1.1      -1.2      -1.2                 0.0
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                                  -1.9      -1.7     2.0        3.1      7.3       1.9        0.9        7.1       -4.1       -7.1      -2.7       0.9       0.1      -1.1      -1.3      -1.3                 0.0
    Primary deficit                                                                                      -1.1       0.1     1.4        0.7      2.2      -0.9       -1.3       -0.5       -2.0       -2.9      -2.7      -2.0      -1.9      -2.0      -1.9      -1.9                -0.6
          Revenue and grants                                                                     24.6    25.3      27.0    27.4       26.9     27.4      28.0       29.5       29.3       30.6       32.5      32.9      32.3      32.1      32.3      32.2      32.1
          Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                      22.4    24.2      27.1    28.8       27.5     29.5      27.1       28.2       28.9       28.6       29.6      30.2      30.3      30.2      30.4      30.3      30.2
    Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                           -0.6      -1.0     2.0        2.5      5.8       3.3        2.3        7.5       -2.2       -4.3       0.0       2.9       2.0       0.8       0.6       0.6                 0.6
          Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                         -3.3      -1.3    -2.2       -0.7      1.4      -1.1        1.6        0.4       -1.3       -0.2       1.2       0.6       0.5       0.4       0.3       0.3                 0.3
              Of which contribution from real interest rate                                                                                                                                           1.7       3.0       2.4       2.3       2.2       2.0       2.1                 2.0
              Of which contribution from real growth                                                                                                                                                 -2.0      -1.8      -1.8      -1.8      -1.8      -1.8      -1.7                -1.7
          Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                  2.7      0.3      4.2       3.2      4.4       4.4         0.7       7.1       -0.9       -4.1      -1.2       2.3       1.5       0.5       0.3       0.2                 0.2
              Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                       1.3      1.2      1.2       1.2      1.1       1.2         1.1       1.1        1.1        1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1                 1.1
    Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                  -0.1     -0.8     -1.3      -0.1     -0.7      -0.5         0.0       0.1        0.1        0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0                 0.0
              Privatization receipts (negative)                                                           -0.1     -0.8     -1.3      -0.1     -0.7      -0.5         0.0       0.1        0.1        0.1       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0                 0.0
              Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                            0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0         0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0                 0.0
              Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                  0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0       0.0         0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0                 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                                   -1.7      4.9      0.3      -0.4      1.3       4.5         3.1       1.1        0.4        0.3       2.8      -1.3      -0.4       0.0       0.1       0.1                 0.0

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                          114.5     97.2     103.2   110.1      122.2    151.2    170.3       175.4      204.4     184.1       151.8     150.6     152.2     152.0     147.7     144.3     140.9

Gross financing 5/                                                                                         1.2      4.3      6.6       6.3      8.6       5.9         6.3       8.4        7.5        3.7       5.0       5.5       5.2       5.0       4.9       5.0
   in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                             1.1      4.1      7.0       6.2      7.4       5.0         5.1       6.8        6.0        3.5       5.5       5.9       5.8       5.8       6.0       6.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            For debt
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  stabilization

Nominal GDP                                                                                                                                                                                       ######    ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ######
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                              5.2    2.1    3.4           0.6   -4.2         2.9        1.5         1.9       3.8         3.8       4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0                                4.0
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                                10.2   13.2   11.2          12.8   12.4        12.3       11.3         9.4       9.0         9.1      11.1   10.6    9.1    8.1    7.7    7.9                                7.9
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                               9.0    7.9    7.2           7.4    7.5         7.3        9.3         7.8       7.5         6.8       8.1    6.3    6.8    7.2    7.4    7.5                                7.5
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                          -8.6   -3.7   -5.6          -2.0   -0.2         0.2        5.1         2.9       1.7         3.6       6.8    5.5    5.3    4.9    4.7    4.9                                4.9
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                               831.3    987.7 1005.3 1293.6        1542.1 1873.8      2229.2     2291.2      2864.8    2778.2      2389.8    2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0 2720.3 2746.7
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                   18.8    1.8   28.7          19.2   21.5        19.0        2.8        25.0      -3.0       -14.0      -5.0    9.6    6.0    1.9    1.3    1.0                                1.0
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                                  0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0           0.0    0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0       0.0         0.0       0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)                  -15.8   -1.8 -22.3          -16.1 -17.7        -15.9       -2.7       -20.0       3.1        16.3       5.3   -8.7   -5.6   -1.9   -1.3   -1.0                               -1.0
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                                18.9   16.9   16.8          14.8   12.6        12.1        6.2         6.4       7.2         5.5       4.3    5.1    3.8    3.2    3.0    3.0                                3.0
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                   13.9   14.0   10.1          -3.8    2.7        -5.5        5.5         4.5       2.8         7.6       6.0    4.4    3.7    4.4    3.9    3.7

                                                                              Stress Tests: Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations in projection years

Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)                                                                                                         Historical            Standard
                                                                                                                                                                Average               Deviation

Primary deficit                                                                                                                                                     -0.4                   1.5
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                                                                                         2.1                   2.6
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/                                                                                                                               11.1                   1.6
Real interest rate (in percent)                                                                                                                                     -0.7                   4.3
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                                                                                           11.7                   5.1
Revenue to GDP ratio                                                                                                                                                28.4                   2.1


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.

Nominal spending                                                                                                                                                                                  73867.8   81714.0 89619.2 96520.5 ###### ###### ######
 Increase in percent                                                                                                                                                                                           10.6     9.7     7.7     7.8    7.0    6.8
    Increase in real spending in percent                                                                                                                                                                        6.0     4.4     3.7     4.4    3.9    3.7




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario                                                                                                                                                                 ######    ######    ######    ######    ######    ######    ######
  Short term (same share as in baseline)                                                                                                                                                            929.0     998.0    1105.6    1295.1    1046.4     641.8     195.9
    Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)                                                                                                                                                  6262.6    6802.9    8394.0    9965.3   11353.7   12921.1
    Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)                                                                                                                                                   13627.9   14219.4   13217.6   12665.8   12585.9   13489.5
Primary deficit                                                                                                                                                                                             -7194.4   -5771.8   -6020.1   -6704.8   -6948.3   -7416.5
Gross financing need (in local currency)                                                                                                                                                                    13625.2   16248.5   16697.0   17221.4   18037.7   19636.0
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)                                                                                                                                                                    2496.4    2735.4    2899.1    2954.3    2992.1    3021.1
                                                                                               Bound Test 4: Combined 1/4 St
                                                                                                   (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                      1998     1999

                                                                                                             I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                          28.2    24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                      15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                           -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                                -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                      -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                         24.6    25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                          22.4    24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                           -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/                                             -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                      2.7      0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                             1.3      1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                  -0.1     -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                                 -0.1     -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                                  0.0      0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                        0.0      0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                                 -1.7      4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                         114.5    97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                       1.2      4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                             1.1      4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                            5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                              10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                             9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                        -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                              831.3   987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                 18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                                0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)                -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                              18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                 13.9   14.0

                                                                                     Stress Tests: Combination of stress tests B1-B
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.

Nominal spending
 Increase in percent
  Increase in real spending in percent




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Test 4: Combined 1/4 Standard Deviation Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                              Actual                                                          Projections
               2000      2001      2002    2003   2004        2005     2006      2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

    I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                 30.2      32.8     41.4     47.7     51.8      60.0     56.3      49.4       49.5    49.6     49.7    49.1
                 17.8      20.6     25.0     26.3     28.5      31.9     29.9      24.4       24.7    25.0     25.3    24.8

                  2.4       2.6      8.5      6.4      4.1       8.2     -3.7      -6.9        0.1     0.1      0.2    -0.6
                  2.0       3.1      7.3      1.9      0.9       7.1     -4.1      -7.1       -2.7     1.4      0.6    -0.7
                  1.4       0.7      2.2     -0.9     -1.3      -0.5     -2.0      -2.9       -2.7    -2.3     -2.3    -2.3
                 27.4      26.9     27.4     28.0     29.5      29.3     30.6      32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                 28.8      27.5     29.5     27.1     28.2      28.9     28.6      29.6       30.2    29.9     29.8    30.0
                  2.0       2.5      5.8      3.3      2.3       7.5     -2.2      -4.3        0.0     3.7      2.8     1.7
                 -2.2      -0.7      1.4     -1.1      1.6       0.4     -1.3      -0.2        1.2     1.4      1.3     1.2
                                                                                    1.7        3.0     2.9      2.9     2.8
                                                                                   -2.0       -1.8    -1.5     -1.5    -1.6
                   4.2       3.2     4.4      4.4       0.7      7.1     -0.9      -4.1       -1.2     2.3      1.5     0.5
                   1.2       1.2     1.1      1.2       1.1      1.1      1.1       1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                  -1.3      -0.1    -0.7     -0.5       0.0      0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  -1.3      -0.1    -0.7     -0.5       0.0      0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.0       0.0     0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.0       0.0     0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.3      -0.4     1.3      4.5       3.1      1.1      0.4       0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

                110.1     122.2    151.2    170.3    175.4     204.4    184.1     151.8      150.6   153.6    154.9   151.9

                  6.6       6.3      8.6      5.9       6.3      8.4      7.5        3.7       5.0     5.7      5.5     5.3
                  7.0       6.2      7.4      5.0       5.1      6.8      6.0        3.5       5.5     6.1      5.9     6.1




                                                                                #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                  3.4       0.6   -4.2        2.9      1.5       1.9      3.8        3.8        4.0     3.4     3.4     3.4
                 11.2      12.8   12.4       12.3     11.3       9.4      9.0        9.1      11.1    11.7    10.2      9.2
                  7.2       7.4    7.5        7.3      9.3       7.8      7.5        6.8        8.1     7.4     7.9     8.3
                 -5.6      -2.0   -0.2        0.2      5.1       2.9      1.7        3.6        6.8     6.6     6.4     6.0
               1293.6    1542.1 1873.8     2229.2   2291.2    2864.8   2778.2    2389.8     2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
                 28.7      19.2   21.5       19.0      2.8      25.0     -3.0      -14.0       -5.0     9.6     6.0     1.9
                  0.0       0.0    0.0        0.0      0.0       0.0      0.0        0.0        0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
                -22.3     -16.1 -17.7       -15.9     -2.7     -20.0      3.1       16.3        5.3    -8.7    -5.6    -1.9
                 16.8      14.8   12.6       12.1      6.2       6.4      7.2        5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
                 10.1      -3.8    2.7       -5.5      5.5       4.5      2.8        7.6        6.0     2.4     3.1     3.8

bination of stress tests B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
                                                   Historical          Standard
                                                   Average            Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.


                                                                                  73867.8     81714.0 87927.2 94104.9 #######
                                                                                                 10.6     7.6     7.0     7.1
                                                                                                  6.0     2.4     3.1     3.8




                                                                                  #######    #######    #######    #######    #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0     1108.9     1303.1     1056.6
                                                                                               6262.6     6822.8     8446.1   10063.0
                                                                                             13627.9    15673.7    14838.5    14447.9
                                                                                              -7194.4    -6869.2    -7161.5    -7877.2
                                                                                             13625.2    16625.4    17232.0    17936.8
                                                                                               2496.4     2735.4     2899.1     2954.3
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                48.3     47.5
                24.6     24.4

                -0.8     -0.8                 0.0
                -0.9     -0.9                 0.0
                -2.3     -2.3                -1.4
                32.2     32.1
                29.9     29.8
                 1.4      1.4                 1.4
                 1.1      1.2                 1.1
                 2.6      2.7                 2.6
                -1.5     -1.5                -1.5
                 0.3      0.2                 0.2
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               150.0    148.0

                 5.3      5.4
                 6.3      6.9
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  3.4     3.4                 3.4
                  8.8     9.0                 9.0
                  8.5     8.6                 8.6
                  5.8     6.0                 6.0
              2720.3 2746.7
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
                  0.0     0.0
                 -1.3    -1.0                -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  3.2     3.0
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               ####### #######
                   6.3     6.1
                   3.2     3.0




               #######    #######
                  650.6      199.4
               11509.0    13151.9
               14502.7    15553.1
                -8157.4    -8658.0
               18911.0    20697.5
                 2992.1     3021.1
                                                                                                   Bound Test 5: Real Exch
                                                                                                 (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                 1998     1999

                                                                                                        I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                     28.2    24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                 15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                      -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                           -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                 -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                    24.6    25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                     22.4    24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                      -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential                                           -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                 2.7      0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                        1.3      1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                             -0.1     -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                            -0.1     -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                             0.0      0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                   0.0      0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                            -1.7      4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                    114.5    97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                 1.2       4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                       1.1       4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                       5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                         10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                        9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                   -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                         831.3   987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                            18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                           0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)           -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                         18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                            13.9   14.0

                                                                                          Stress Tests: One time 30 percent r
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
7/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic

Total debt
Foreign-currency denominated debt (in local currency terms)
 in foreign currency (as in basline)
Share


In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, US doller per LC (average)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 5: Real Exchange Rate Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                              Actual                                                            Projections
                2000     2001      2002    2003   2004          2005     2006      2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

    I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                  30.2     32.8     41.4     47.7      51.8       60.0     56.3      49.4       49.5    59.1     58.4    56.7
                  17.8     20.6     25.0     26.3      28.5       31.9     29.9      24.4       24.7    29.8     29.6    28.7

                   2.4      2.6      8.5      6.4       4.1        8.2     -3.7      -6.9        0.1     9.6     -0.7    -1.7
                   2.0      3.1      7.3      1.9       0.9        7.1     -4.1      -7.1       -2.7    10.9     -0.3    -1.7
                   1.4      0.7      2.2     -0.9      -1.3       -0.5     -2.0      -2.9       -2.7    -2.7     -2.7    -2.7
                  27.4     26.9     27.4     28.0      29.5       29.3     30.6      32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                  28.8     27.5     29.5     27.1      28.2       28.9     28.6      29.6       30.2    29.5     29.5    29.6
                   2.0      2.5      5.8      3.3       2.3        7.5     -2.2      -4.3        0.0    13.6      2.4     1.0
                  -2.2     -0.7      1.4     -1.1       1.6        0.4     -1.3      -0.2        1.2     0.6      0.6     0.4
                                                                                      1.7        3.0     2.4      2.8     2.6
                                                                                     -2.0       -1.8    -1.8     -2.2    -2.2
                   4.2       3.2     4.4       4.4        0.7      7.1     -0.9      -4.1       -1.2    13.0      1.8     0.6
                   1.2       1.2     1.1       1.2        1.1      1.1      1.1       1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                  -1.3      -0.1    -0.7      -0.5        0.0      0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                  -1.3      -0.1    -0.7      -0.5        0.0      0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.0       0.0     0.0       0.0        0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.0       0.0     0.0       0.0        0.0      0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                   0.3      -0.4     1.3       4.5        3.1      1.1      0.4       0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

                110.1     122.2    151.2    170.3     175.4      204.4    184.1     151.8      150.6   183.0    181.8   175.4

                   6.6       6.3     8.6      5.9         6.3      8.4      7.5        3.7       5.0     5.2      5.9     5.6
                   7.0       6.2     7.4      5.0         5.1      6.8      6.0        3.5       5.5     4.0      4.6     4.6




                                                                                  #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                  3.4       0.6   -4.2        2.9       1.5        1.9      3.8        3.8        4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0
                 11.2      12.8   12.4       12.3      11.3        9.4      9.0        9.1      11.1     10.6     9.1     8.1
                  7.2       7.4    7.5        7.3       9.3        7.8      7.5        6.8        8.1     6.3     6.8     7.2
                 -5.6      -2.0   -0.2        0.2       5.1        2.9      1.7        3.6        6.8     5.5     5.3     4.9
               1293.6    1542.1 1873.8     2229.2    2291.2     2864.8   2778.2    2389.8     2269.6 3497.0 3706.3 3776.9
                 28.7      19.2   21.5       19.0       2.8       25.0     -3.0      -14.0       -5.0    54.1     6.0     1.9
                  0.0       0.0    0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0      0.0        0.0     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
                -22.3     -16.1 -17.7       -15.9      -2.7      -20.0      3.1       16.3        5.3   -35.1    -5.6    -1.9
                 16.8      14.8   12.6       12.1       6.2        6.4      7.2        5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
                 10.1      -3.8    2.7       -5.5       5.5        4.5      2.8        7.6        6.0     1.7     3.7     4.5

Tests: One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2006 7/
                                                    Historical         Standard
                                                    Average           Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.

cal currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).

                                                                                             ####### ####### ####### #######
                                                                                             66945.1 ####### ####### #######
                                                                                                29.5    29.0    29.1    29.3
                                                                                                0.50    0.58    0.58    0.57




                                                                                  #######    #######    #######    #######    #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0     1329.3     1548.8     1242.8
                                                                                               6262.6     8179.2   10038.9    11836.2
                                                                                             13627.9    14219.4    15891.8    15147.8
                                                                                              -7194.4    -8052.8    -8483.2    -9348.0
                                                                                             13625.2    15343.9    18776.8    19184.9
                                                                                                0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
                                                                                               2496.4     3846.3     4076.6     4154.2
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                54.8     52.9
                27.8     27.2

                -1.9     -1.9                 0.0
                -2.0     -2.0                 0.0
                -2.7     -2.7                -0.7
                32.2     32.1
                29.6     29.5
                 0.7      0.7                 0.7
                 0.3      0.4                 0.4
                 2.4      2.4                 2.4
                -2.1     -2.0                -2.0
                 0.4      0.3                 0.3
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               170.1    164.7

                 5.4      5.4
                 4.7      5.0
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  4.0     4.0                 4.0
                  7.7     7.9                 7.9
                  7.4     7.5                 7.5
                  4.7     4.9                 4.9
              3825.2 3862.3
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
               0.000   0.000
                 -1.3    -1.0                -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  3.9     3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               ####### #######
               ####### #######
                  29.7    30.4
                  0.57    0.56




               #######    #######
                  756.3      229.0
               13379.0     15097.6
               14948.8     15895.7
                -9779.7   -10449.5
               19790.9     21300.1
                  0.000      0.000
                 4207.4     4248.2
                                                                                                         Bound Test 6: Contingen
                                                                                                       (In percent of GDP, unless


                                                                                                       1998     1999

                                                                                                              I. Baseline Medium-Te

Public sector debt 1/                                                                           28.2    24.6      27.8
 o/w foreign-currency denominated                                                                       15.5      16.5

Change in public sector debt                                                                            -3.6       3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)                                                                 -1.9      -1.7
  Primary deficit                                                                                       -1.1       0.1
    Revenue and grants                                                                          24.6    25.3      27.0
    Primary (noninterest) expenditure                                                           22.4    24.2      27.1
  Automatic debt dynamics 2/                                                                            -0.6      -1.0
    Contribution from interest rate/growth differential                                                 -3.3      -1.3
      Of which contribution from real interest rate
      Of which contribution from real growth
    Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/                                                       2.7      0.3
      Denominator = 1+g+p+gp                                                                              1.3      1.2
  Other identified debt-creating flows                                                                   -0.1     -0.8
      Privatization receipts (negative)                                                                  -0.1     -0.8
      Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities                                                   0.0      0.0
      Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)                                                         0.0      0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3)                                                                  -1.7      4.9

Public debt in percent of revenues 1/                                                          114.5    97.2     103.2

Gross financing 5/                                                                                        1.2      4.3
 in billions of U.S. dollars                                                                              1.1      4.1

Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions

Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent)                                                                             5.2    2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/                                               10.2   13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt                                              9.0    7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)                         -8.6   -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar)                                                               831.3   987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)                                                  18.8    1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)                                                                 0.0     0.0    0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)                 -15.8   -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)                                                               18.9   16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)                                  13.9   14.0

                                                                                         Stress Tests: 10 percent of GDP increase in
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)


Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio


1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.




In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
  Short term (same share as in baseline)
  Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
  Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 6: Contingent Liability Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

                                            Actual                                                            Projections
              2000     2001      2002    2003   2004       2005        2006      2007       2008     2009    2010     2011

   I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections

                30.2      32.8    41.4     47.7     51.8        60.0     56.3      49.4       49.5    58.3     57.6    55.9
                17.8      20.6    25.0     26.3     28.5        31.9     29.9      24.4       24.7    29.4     29.3    28.3

                 2.4       2.6     8.5      6.4      4.1         8.2     -3.7      -6.9        0.1     8.9     -0.7    -1.7
                 2.0       3.1     7.3      1.9      0.9         7.1     -4.1      -7.1       -2.7    10.2     -0.3    -1.7
                 1.4       0.7     2.2     -0.9     -1.3        -0.5     -2.0      -2.9       -2.7    -2.7     -2.7    -2.7
                27.4      26.9    27.4     28.0     29.5        29.3     30.6      32.5       32.9    32.3     32.1    32.3
                28.8      27.5    29.5     27.1     28.2        28.9     28.6      29.6       30.2    29.5     29.5    29.6
                 2.0       2.5     5.8      3.3      2.3         7.5     -2.2      -4.3        0.0     2.9      2.3     1.0
                -2.2      -0.7     1.4     -1.1      1.6         0.4     -1.3      -0.2        1.2     0.6      0.6     0.4
                                                                                    1.7        3.0     2.4      2.8     2.6
                                                                                   -2.0       -1.8    -1.8     -2.2    -2.1
                 4.2       3.2     4.4      4.4      0.7         7.1     -0.9      -4.1       -1.2     2.3      1.7     0.6
                 1.2       1.2     1.1      1.2      1.1         1.1      1.1       1.1        1.1     1.1      1.1     1.1
                -1.3      -0.1    -0.7     -0.5      0.0         0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0    10.0      0.0     0.0
                -1.3      -0.1    -0.7     -0.5      0.0         0.1      0.1       0.1        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                 0.0       0.0     0.0      0.0      0.0         0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0
                 0.0       0.0     0.0      0.0      0.0         0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0    10.0      0.0     0.0
                 0.3      -0.4     1.3      4.5      3.1         1.1      0.4       0.3        2.8    -1.3     -0.4     0.0

               110.1    122.2    151.2    170.3    175.4       204.4    184.1     151.8      150.6   180.8    179.5   173.1

                 6.6       6.3     8.6      5.9      6.3         8.4      7.5        3.7       5.0     5.2      5.8     5.5
                 7.0       6.2     7.4      5.0      5.1         6.8      6.0        3.5       5.5     5.6      6.4     6.4




                                                                                #######    ####### ####### ####### #######
                3.4       0.6   -4.2        2.9      1.5      1.9         3.8        3.8        4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0
               11.2      12.8   12.4       12.3     11.3      9.4         9.0        9.1      11.1    10.6      9.1     8.1
                7.2       7.4    7.5        7.3      9.3      7.8         7.5        6.8        8.1     6.3     6.8     7.2
               -5.6      -2.0   -0.2        0.2      5.1      2.9         1.7        3.6        6.8     5.5     5.3     4.9
             1293.6    1542.1 1873.8     2229.2   2291.2   2864.8      2778.2    2389.8     2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
               28.7      19.2   21.5       19.0      2.8     25.0        -3.0      -14.0       -5.0     9.6     6.0     1.9
                0.0       0.0    0.0        0.0      0.0      0.0         0.0        0.0        0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
              -22.3     -16.1 -17.7       -15.9     -2.7    -20.0         3.1       16.3        5.3    -8.7    -5.6    -1.9
               16.8      14.8   12.6       12.1      6.2      6.4         7.2        5.5        4.3     5.1     3.8     3.2
               10.1      -3.8    2.7       -5.5      5.5      4.5         2.8        7.6        6.0     1.7     3.7     4.5

percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2006
                                                   Historical          Standard
                                                   Average            Deviation

                                                        -0.4                1.5
                                                         2.1                2.6
                                                        11.1                1.6
                                                        -0.7                4.3
                                                        11.7                5.1
                                                        28.4                2.1


r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.

ort-term debt at end of previous period.




                                                                                  #######    #######    #######    #######    #######
                                                                                    929.0       998.0     1313.4     1529.3     1226.4
                                                                                               6262.6     8081.0     9912.0   11679.5
                                                                                             13627.9    14219.4    15700.9    14956.4
                                                                                              -7194.4    -8052.8    -8483.2    -9348.0
                                                                                             13625.2    15245.6    18443.0    18817.1
                                                                                               2496.4     2735.4     2899.1     2954.3
rojections
              2012     2013
                                Debt-stabilizing
                                   primary
                                    deficit
                54.0     52.1
                27.5     26.8

                -1.9     -1.9                 0.0
                -2.0     -2.0                 0.0
                -2.7     -2.7                -0.6
                32.2     32.1
                29.6     29.5
                 0.7      0.7                 0.6
                 0.3      0.4                 0.4
                 2.4      2.4                 2.3
                -2.1     -2.0                -1.9
                 0.4      0.3                 0.3
                 1.1      1.1                 1.1
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.0      0.0                 0.0
                 0.1      0.1                 0.0

               167.7    162.3

                 5.3      5.3
                 6.5      6.9
                                    For debt
                                  stabilization

             ####### #######
                  4.0     4.0                 4.0
                  7.7     7.9                 7.9
                  7.4     7.5                 7.5
                  4.7     4.9                 4.9
              2720.3 2746.7
                  1.3     1.0                 1.0
                  0.0     0.0
                 -1.3    -1.0                -1.0
                  3.0     3.0                 3.0
                  3.9     3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).




               #######    #######
                  745.8      225.6
               13193.5     14878.1
               14750.8     15675.3
                -9779.7   -10449.5
               19391.0     20849.7
                 2992.1     3021.1

								
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