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1 GO TO SHEET "Input_fiscal"
2 CHECK if coverage of public sector is appropriate (input in the spreadsheet is based on WEO data for general government)
2.a IF YES: CHANGE country code to that of your country in column "Series_Code"
REFRESH by selecting EDSS refresh button
CHECK if values are correct and insert those figures not refreshed via WEO (highlighted in yellow)
If WEO projections are outdated (or the "program" baseline projection differs from the WEO projection),
then hardcopy all relevant figures from your database/program projections.
(Do not refresh the sheet afterwards to avoid results being overwritten; alternatively, delete WEO in colu
prevent data from being refreshed)
2.b IF NOT: HARDCOPY the relevant data into the spreadsheet from your database
No-Policy-Change Scenario, Country-Specific Scenario and Market-Forecast Scenario data need to be hardcopied into th
Parameters (based on the baseline) for short term debt, foreign currency debt, and amortization should be changed if mor
3 Once "input_fiscal" is filled in correctly, the baseline and stress test results are automatically calibrated and summarized in
the output tables in sheets "Table" (debt ratios) and "Table_GF" (gross financing need). For inclusion in briefs
and SRs, use "Table_SR" which hides exchange rate projections and sheet "Panel Chart" which contains graphical
representations of stress test outcomes.
4 For shifting the calculations one year forward
UPDATE the years in the "Input_fiscal" sheet with column S referring to the first year of projections, and REFRESH
UPDATE the years in the "Table" sheet by changing the number in column S to represent the first projection year
1/ If country-specific and/or market-forecast scenario is not presented, the scenarios A3 and A4 in Table_SR should be hidden, a
For further clarification, please contact Jun Kim (x36363) or Charalambos Tsangarides (x35833) in Policy Review Division, PD
When a Staff Report containing this DSA has been issued to the Board, please email a
this file to PDRREVIEW (as per Mr. Allen's memo to Departments dated September
and February 7, 2006).
EO data for general government)
ghted in yellow)
from the WEO projection),
en; alternatively, delete WEO in column "database" to
rio data need to be hardcopied into the page 1/
mortization should be changed if more information is available.
y calibrated and summarized in
r inclusion in briefs
hich contains graphical
ojections, and REFRESH
he first projection year
A4 in Table_SR should be hidden, and the footnotes should be adjusted accordingly.
5833) in Policy Review Division, PDR
he Board, please email a copy of
ments dated September 9, 2005,
Units Scale Database Series_Code Descriptor
Billions WEO
National Currency W273GGD Public sector debt
General government, gross debt
Billions WEO
National Currency W273GGB Public sector balance
General government balance
Billions WEO
National Currency Public sector expenditure
W273GGENL General government, total expenditure and net lending
Billions WEO
National Currency W273GGEI Public sector interest expenditure
General government expenditure, interest
Billions WEO
National Currency Public sector revenue and grants)
W273GGRG General government, total revenue (and grants
Billions WEO
National Currency Gross domestic product, current prices
W273NGDP Gross domestic product, current prices
Billions WEO
National Currency Gross domestic product, constant prices
W273NGDP_RGross domestic product, constant prices
None RETS
National Currency per US Dollar Exchange rate, national END
273..ME.LM... MARKET EXCHANGE RATE, PD.currency per U.S. Dollar, end of period
None WEO
National Currency per US Dollar Exchange currency per U.S. Dollar
W273ENDA Exchange rate, nationalrate, national currency per U.S. Dollar, average
Index Number None WEO Gross domestic product deflator
W273NGDP_DGross domestic product deflator
Billions
National Currency Foreign-currency denominated debt (expressed in local currency)
Billions
National Currency Privatization receipts (negative)
Billions
National Currency Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities
Billions
National Currency Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)
Billions
National Currency Amortization on MLT public sector debt
Billions
National Currency Short-term public sector debt
Billions if available
National Currency Interest payments on forex debt
None
National Currency per US Dollar Exchange rate, national END
MARKET EXCHANGE RATE, PD.currency per U.S. Dollar, end of period
Formulas
GDP Deflator (percent change)
Real revenue and grants
Real non-interest expenditure
Growth in real revenues and grants
Growth of real non-interest expenditures
Share of foreign-currency denominated debt in total debt (previous peri
Interest rate on forex debt
Gross financing need
Average Maturity (MLT Debt/Amortization)
Short-term debt / total debt
1996A1 1997A1 1998A1 1999A1 2000A1 2001A1 2002A1 2003A1 2004A1 2005A1 2006A1 2007A1
14,666.4 19,037.5 20,788.9 28,023.1 36,741.6 46,087.9 62,676.5 83,431.5 97,585.7 ####### ####### #######
-111.0 23.0 -1,007.0 -2,826.3 -4,764.0 -5,377.8 -8,293.7 -5,882.5 -6,097.0 -7,371.1 -6,092.9 -3,208.4
12,055.0 16,600.0 22,394.0 29,987.2 38,177.0 43,377.0 50,441.3 55,073.6 62,581.0 68,214.5 76,126.5 85,485.2
1,420.0 1,498.0 1,944.0 2,743.0 3,144.0 4,687.3 5,712.5 7,691.9 9,454.8 9,133.4 11,011.4 11,617.4
11,944.0 16,623.0 21,387.0 27,160.9 33,373.7 37,729.3 41,456.5 48,983.3 55,644.6 60,012.5 69,580.7 81,120.8
43,898.2 67,532.9 84,439.1 ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### ####### #######
63,815.5 67,532.9 71,046.2 72,506.8 74,994.0 75,421.3 72,250.6 74,363.8 75,458.1 76,916.1 79,870.1 82,905.2
917.3 831.3 987.7 1,005.3 1,293.6 1,542.1 1,873.8 2,229.2 2,291.2 2,864.8 2,778.2 2,389.8
786.3 826.5 912.9 1,036.7 1,141.0 1,427.0 1,758.6 2,087.4 2,299.8 2,508.0 2,875.9 2,628.5
68.8 100.0 118.9 138.9 162.3 186.3 209.8 235.2 249.9 265.9 285.1 300.7
First year of
YELLOW CELLS TO BE FILLED IN projections
10,430.2 11,203.7 13,088.1 16,573.8 21,712.7 28,971.6 37,844.5 45,943.4 53,774.2 65,270.9 68,142.5 60,872.9
0.0 -1,391.8 -113.5 -779.9 -1,578.0 -149.1 -1,029.3 -885.8 -46.4 142.7 160.1 161.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1,469.5 1,922.8 2,281.4 3,205.3 3,263.3 5,271.6 8,991.1 9,852.8 5,333.2
1,298.4 1,212.1 1,505.1 1,259.2 443.6 733.2 1,243.3 622.3 929.0
746.3 945.5 1,013.3 1,030.1 1,200.4 1,599.9 2,174.2 2,744.0 4,258.7 4,217.6 4,902.6 4,653.7
917.3 831.3 987.7 1,005.3 1,293.6 1,542.1 1,873.8 2,229.2 2,291.2 2,864.8 2,778.2 2,389.8
45.37 18.85 16.87 16.84 14.77 12.62 12.11 6.25 6.41 7.23 5.48
17363.2 16623.0 17994.8 19554.4 20564.3 20255.8 19762.2 20827.1 22268.1 22568.5 24403.2 26973.0
15460.3 15102.0 17206.4 19614.4 21586.7 20771.4 21322.1 20146.1 21260.2 22218.2 22837.0 24561.3
-4.3 8.3 8.7 5.2 -1.5 -2.4 5.4 6.9 1.3 8.1 10.5
-2.3 13.9 14.0 10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6
period)
bt in total debt (previous 0.7111643 0.58851 0.62957 0.59143 0.59096 0.62862 0.60381 0.55067 0.55105 0.53211 0.53184
9.0646293 9.04406 7.87049 7.24253 7.36852 7.50452 7.25081 9.26949 7.84316 7.51123 6.82936
-23.0 1,007.0 4,295.8 7,985.3 8,871.2 13,004.1 10,405.0 11,812.2 17,095.3 17,189.0 9,163.8
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18.2 18.5 19.5 19.2 25.4 18.4 13.5 12.9 22.9
0.0 0.0 4.6 3.3 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8
2008A1 2009A1 2010A1 2011A1 2012A1 2013A1
####### 142,943.7 150,824.3 155,366.0 159,010.3 162,299.6
-6,864.4 -5,928.4 -4,879.3 -3,334.5 -2,577.7 -2,439.7
95,341.9 101,557.6 107,067.4 113,636.1 120,423.8 128,389.0
13,627.9 14,219.4 13,010.0 12,257.5 11,960.1 12,569.2
88,908.4 95,391.0 102,540.6 110,726.7 118,243.4 126,269.2
####### 295,656.2 319,243.7 342,596.4 366,989.2 393,118.9
86,221.4 89,670.3 93,257.1 96,987.4 100,866.9 104,901.5
2,567.4 2,799.5 2,913.4 2,956.7 2,994.1 3,022.7
2,496.4 2,735.4 2,899.1 2,954.3 2,992.1 3,021.1
313.7 329.7 342.3 353.2 363.8 374.8
First year of
projections
66,945.1 72,047.8 76,575.7 78,567.5 80,808.7 83,396.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6,262.6 6,696.0 8,123.3 9,469.8 10,579.1 11,784.3
998.0 1,088.3 1,253.3 994.4 598.0 178.7
4,940.6 4,201.2 4,902.5 5,509.3 5,846.7 6,074.6
2,269.6 2,486.9 2,635.8 2,686.0 2,720.3 2,746.7
4.31 5.10 3.83 3.19 3.00 3.00
28339.9 28931.4 29954.0 31346.2 32499.2 33694.2
26046.7 26489.0 27476.0 28699.8 29811.2 30905.8
5.1 2.1 3.5 4.6 3.7 3.7
6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.7
0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51
8.11631 6.275625 6.8044885 7.1945577 7.4415718 7.5172879
14,056.0 13,622.4 14,090.9 14,057.6 14,151.2 14,821.9
21.2 21.2 18.4 16.3 15.0 13.8
0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1
Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
I. Baseline Projections primary
balance 10/
1 Public sector debt 1/ 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.3 47.2 45.3 43.3 41.3 0.5
o/w foreign-currency denominated 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.4 24.0 22.9 22.0 21.2
2 Change in public sector debt 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0
3 Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 0.2 -0.7 -1.9 -2.1 -2.1
4 Primary deficit -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
5 Revenue and grants 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3 32.2 32.1
6 Primary (noninterest) expenditure 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5
7 Automatic debt dynamics 2/ 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.5
8 Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3
9 Of which contribution from real interest rate -0.1 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9
10 Of which contribution from real GDP growth -1.0 -0.7 -0.9 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6
11 Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.2
12 Other identified debt-creating flows -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Privatization receipts (negative) -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 Residual, including asset changes (2-3) 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1
Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/ 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 149.9 147.1 140.3 134.5 128.5
Gross financing need 5/ 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8
in billions of U.S. dollars 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 10-Year 10-Year 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9
Historical Standard Projected
Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions Average Deviation Average
Real GDP growth (in percent) 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 2.1 2.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 6/ 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 1.6 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1 7.7 7.9 8.7
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, in percent) 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 -0.7 4.3 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.1
Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent) -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 -9.3 12.4 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -3.7
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 11.7 5.1 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.6
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 5.2 6.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.5
Primary deficit -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
Debt-stabilizing
II. Stress Tests for Public Debt Ratio primary
A. Alternative Scenarios balance 10/
A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 7/ 49.5 48.6 47.8 46.6 45.3 43.9 -1.0
A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013 49.5 48.4 47.3 45.4 43.4 41.4 0.5
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one standard deviations 49.5 49.4 49.3 48.5 47.5 46.5 1.5
B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviation 49.5 49.4 49.7 49.6 49.8 50.4 1.3
B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviation 49.5 49.1 48.8 47.7 46.5 45.3 0.6
B4. Combination of B1-B3 using one-quarter standard deviation shocks 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.1 48.3 47.5 1.4
B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 9/ 49.5 59.1 58.4 56.7 54.8 52.9 0.7
B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009 49.5 58.3 57.6 55.9 54.0 52.1 0.6
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency
denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
7/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
8/ The implied change in other key variables under this scenario is discussed in the text.
9/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
Table 2. Country: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Debt-stabilizing
primary
balance 9/
1 Baseline: Public sector debt 1/ 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.3 47.2 45.3 43.3 41.3 0.5
o/w foreign-currency denominated 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.4 24.0 22.9 22.0 21.2
2 Change in public sector debt 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0
3 Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -1.5 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3
4 Primary deficit -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
5 Revenue and grants 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3 32.2 32.1
6 Primary (noninterest) expenditure 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5
7 Automatic debt dynamics 2/ 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3
8 Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3
9 Of which contribution from real interest rate -0.1 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9
10 Of which contribution from real GDP growth -1.0 -0.7 -0.9 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6
11 Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 ... ... ... ... ... ...
12 Other identified debt-creating flows -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Privatization receipts (negative) -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 Residual, including asset changes (2-3) 5/ 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3
Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/ 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 149.9 147.1 140.3 134.5 128.5
Gross financing need 6/ 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8
in billions of U.S. dollars 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9
Scenario with key variables at their historical averages 7/ 49.5 48.6 47.8 46.6 45.3 43.9 -1.0
Scenario with no policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013 49.5 48.4 47.3 45.4 43.4 41.4 0.5
Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions Underlying Baseline
Real GDP growth (in percent) 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 8/ 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1 7.7 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, in percent) 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9
Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent) -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 ... ... ... ... ... ...
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.7
Primary deficit -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency
denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ For projections, this line includes exchange rate changes.
6/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
7/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
8/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
9/ Assumes that key variables (real GDP growth, real interest rate, and other identified debt-creating flows) remain at the level of the last projection year.
Figure 2. Country: Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/
(Public debt in percent of GDP)
Baseline and historical scenarios Interest rate shock (in percent)
65 9 65
Gross financing need Baseline: 5.1
under baseline
8 Scenario: 7.2
60 (right scale) 60
Historical: -0.7
7
55 55
Baseline
6 i-rate
50 Historical 50 shock
5 46
44
45 45 Baseline
41 4
41
40 3 40
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Primary balance shock (in percent of GDP) and
Growth shock (in percent per year) no policy change scenario (constant primary balance)
65 65
Baseline: 4.0 Baseline: 2.7
60 Scenario: 2.7 60 Scenario: 1.9
Historical: 2.1 Historical: 0.4
55 55
Growth
shock 50 No policy change
50 50 PB shock
45
45 Baseline 45
41 Baseline
41
41
40 40
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Combined shock 2/ Real depreciation and contingent liabilities shocks 3/
65 65
30 %
60 60 depreciation
53
55 55 contingent
Combined
liabilities
shock shock 52
50 48 50
Baseline
45 45
Baseline 41 41
40 40
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Sources: International Monetary Fund, country desk data, and staff estimates.
1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the
boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year
historical average for the variable is also shown.
2/ Permanent 1/4 standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and primary balance.
3/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent and 10 percent of GDP shock to contingent liabilities occur in 2009, with real
depreciation defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic
inflation (based on GDP deflator).
D:\Docstoc\Working\pdf\d7d82944-f960-4fba-81d9-6371fd05a604.xls PanelChart 2/25/2011
inflation (based on GDP deflator).
D:\Docstoc\Working\pdf\d7d82944-f960-4fba-81d9-6371fd05a604.xls PanelChart 2/25/2011
Table --. Country: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework--Gross Publ
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indica
Gross financing need 1/
in billions of U.S. dollars
Gross financing need 2/
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 3/
A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations
B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B4. Combination of B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 5/
B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009
Gross financing need in billions of U.S. dollars 2/
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2008-2013 3/
A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2008-2013
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real interest rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations
B2. Real GDP growth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B3. Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations
B4. Combination of B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2009 5/
B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2009
1/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
2/ Gross financing under the stress test scenarios is derived by assuming the same ratio of short-term to total debt as in the baseline sce
term debt. Interest expenditures are derived by applying the respective interest rate to the previous period debt stock under each altern
3/ The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.
4/ The implied change in other key variables under this scenario is discussed in the text.
5/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic
nability Framework--Gross Public Sector Financing Need, 2003-2013
of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
I. Baseline Projections
5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8
5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.6 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9
II. Stress Tests
5.0 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
5.0 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.7
5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.4
5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.8
5.0 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0
5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.4
5.0 5.2 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4
5.0 5.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.3
5.5 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6
5.5 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8
5.5 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.4 7.0
5.5 5.5 5.7 6.3 7.1 8.3
5.5 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.5
5.5 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.9
5.5 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.0
5.5 5.6 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.9
plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
m to total debt as in the baseline scenario and the same average maturity on medium- and long
period debt stock under each alternative scenario.
e of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
Historical Projections
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Historical scenario
Historical scenario 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.6
GFN GFN 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.2 4.6
i-rate i-rate 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.4
Growth Growth 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.4
PB PB 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.1
Combined Combined 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.6
30 % baseline 30 % baseline 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 59.1
contingent liabilities 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 58.3
Baseline 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.3
47.7
Scenario with no policy change 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.4
Shade 65 65 65 65 65
Projections m s
2010 2011 2012 2013 Baseline Scenario Historical
47.8 46.6 45.3 43.9
4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8
49.3 48.5 47.5 46.5 5.1 7.2 -0.7 4.3
49.7 49.6 49.8 50.4 4.0 2.7 2.1 2.6
48.8 47.7 46.5 45.3 2.7 1.9 0.4 1.54
49.7 49.1 48.3 47.5
58.4 56.7 54.8 52.9
57.6 55.9 54.0 52.1
47.2 45.3 43.3 41.3
47.3 45.4 43.4 41.4
Alternative Scenario 1: Key Varia
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Test: Real GDP growth, real interest rate, and prim
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
Nominal spending
Increase in percent
Increase in real spending in percent
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
ve Scenario 1: Key Variables at Historical Average
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 48.6 47.8 46.6
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.5 24.3 23.6
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -1.3
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 0.4 -0.4 -1.3
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 31.8 31.7 31.9
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 0.9 0.1 -0.8
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3
1.7 3.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
-2.0 -1.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.2 1.4 0.4
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 150.6 148.9 144.1
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 4.2 3.9 3.9
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 4.3
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 2.1 2.1 2.1
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 4.4 3.2 2.5
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 0.1 0.9 1.6
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 7.6 1.6 2.7
real interest rate, and primary balance are at historical average in 2006-2010
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
73867.8 81714.0 92374.0 97479.6 #######
10.6 13.0 5.5 6.0
6.0 7.6 1.6 2.7
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1073.8 1223.0 966.3
6262.6 6606.8 7927.2 9202.7
13627.9 5934.8 4456.7 3712.5
-7194.4 -1276.5 -1353.2 -1425.6
13625.2 12263.1 12104.5 12712.6
2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
45.3 43.9
23.0 22.6
-1.3 -1.4 0.0
-1.4 -1.4 0.0
-0.4 -0.4 1.0
32.2 32.1
31.8 31.7
-1.0 -1.0 -1.0
-1.3 -1.2 -1.2
-0.3 -0.3 -0.3
-0.9 -0.9 -0.9
0.3 0.2 0.2
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
140.6 136.8
3.9 3.9
4.4 4.6
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
2.1 2.1 2.1
2.3 2.3 2.3
2.1 1.9 1.9
-0.7 -0.7 -0.7
2720.3 2746.7
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.3 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
1.8 1.8
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
4.8 4.8
1.8 1.8
####### #######
580.6 173.4
10271.8 11437.4
3525.3 3604.9
-1499.3 -1576.7
13264.2 14046.1
2992.1 3021.1
Alternative Scenario 2: N
(In percent
1998
I. Base
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9
Primary deficit -1.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9
Stress Tests: Primary bala
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
Nominal spending
Increase in percent
Increase in real spending in percent
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Alternative Scenario 2: No Policy Change (Constant Primary Balance)
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual P
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
27.8 30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5
16.5 17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7
3.2 2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1
-1.7 2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7
0.1 1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7
27.0 27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9
27.1 28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2
-1.0 2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 -0.1
-1.3 -2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2
1.7 3.0
-2.0 -1.8
0.3 4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.3
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-0.8 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
-0.8 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4.9 0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8
103.2 110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.5
4.3 6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0
4.1 7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5
249336.3 270495.2
2.1 3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0
13.2 11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1
7.9 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 11.1
-3.7 -5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8
1005.3 1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6
1.8 28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.8 -22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3
16.9 16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3
14.0 10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0
Stress Tests: Primary balance is constant at the 2005 level in projection years
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
hether net or gross debt is used.
rest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depr
d the real growth contribution as -g.
us short-term debt at end of previous period.
73867.8 81714.0
10.6
6.0
123147.1 133792.3
929.0 997.4
6258.4
13627.9
-7194.4
13620.9
2496.4
Projections
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
48.4 47.3 45.4 43.4 41.4
24.4 24.0 23.0 22.1 21.3
-1.1 -1.1 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 0.0
0.2 -0.7 -1.8 -2.1 -2.1 0.0
-2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -0.5
32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9
30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2
2.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3
2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8
-1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5
2.3 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
147.2 143.8 138.3 132.1 125.9
4.7 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.7
5.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8
For debt
stabilization
295656.2 319243.7 342596.4 366989.2 393118.9
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
10.6 9.1 8.1 7.7 7.9 7.9
6.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5
5.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.9
2486.9 2635.8 2686.0 2720.3 2746.7
9.6 6.0 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-8.7 -5.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0
5.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
d e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
89314.9 96440.4 103495.1 110863.9 118757.4
9.3 8.0 7.3 7.1 7.1
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
143028.5 150911.9 155697.5 159388.5 162703.4
1088.9 1254.0 996.5 599.4 179.2
6700.0 8128.0 9490.0 10604.3 11813.6
14209.8 13017.7 12264.6 11985.6 12599.1
-7863.6 -8490.9 -9112.0 -9760.8 -10455.8
14043.6 13743.7 13896.6 13825.6 14556.3
2735.4 2899.1 2954.3 2992.1 3021.1
Bound Test 1: Real Inte
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Test: Real interest rate is at baseline plus one
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 1: Real Interest Rate Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.4 49.3 48.5
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 24.5
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.9
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 1.2 0.4 -0.9
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.6
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 3.9 3.0 1.9
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4
1.7 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.2
-2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.4 1.5 0.5
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 153.0 153.6 150.0
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 6.2 6.1 6.2
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 12.8 11.3 10.3
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 8.4 9.0 9.4
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 7.7 7.4 7.1
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5
rate is at baseline plus one-half standard deviations in projection years
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1111.5 1308.9 1063.2
6262.6 6838.8 8483.7 10125.6
13627.9 17128.1 16459.1 16223.3
-7194.4 -8052.8 -8483.2 -9348.0
13625.2 16912.1 17571.1 18309.8
2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
47.5 46.5
24.1 23.9
-1.0 -1.0 0.0
-1.1 -1.1 0.0
-2.7 -2.7 -1.5
32.2 32.1
29.6 29.5
1.6 1.6 1.5
1.2 1.3 1.3
3.1 3.1 3.0
-1.8 -1.8 -1.7
0.3 0.2 0.2
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
147.4 144.7
5.3 5.4
6.4 7.0
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
4.0 4.0 4.0
9.9 10.1 10.1
9.6 9.7 9.7
6.9 7.1 7.1
2720.3 2746.7
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.3 -1.0 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
3.9 3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
655.5 201.2
11596.7 13264.8
16397.5 17565.0
-9779.7 -10449.5
19277.7 21035.9
2992.1 3021.1
Bound Test 2: Real O
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Test: Real GDP growth is at baseline minus on
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 2: Real Output Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.4 49.7 49.6
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.1
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 1.2 0.7 -0.1
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.4 -1.9 -1.6
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.9 30.2 30.7
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 3.6 2.6 1.5
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
1.7 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3
-2.0 -1.8 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 153.0 154.7 153.5
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.3
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.7 2.7
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 6.3 6.8 7.2
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5
wth is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations in projection years
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1097.3 1285.5 1047.6
6262.6 6751.7 8332.1 9977.0
13627.9 14219.4 13118.2 12572.5
-7194.4 -6863.8 -5942.7 -5258.7
13625.2 15105.4 16604.9 18576.2
2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
49.8 50.4
25.3 25.9
0.2 0.6 0.0
0.1 0.5 0.0
-1.1 -0.8 -1.3
32.2 32.1
31.1 31.4
1.2 1.2 1.3
0.9 1.0 1.0
2.2 2.3 2.3
-1.3 -1.3 -1.3
0.3 0.2 0.3
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
154.6 156.9
6.1 6.8
7.1 8.3
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
2.7 2.7 2.7
7.7 7.9 7.9
7.4 7.5 7.5
4.7 4.9 4.9
2720.3 2746.7
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.3 -1.0 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
3.9 3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
653.7 204.8
11564.2 13507.3
12600.6 13739.5
-3993.3 -2773.4
21219.1 25127.1
2992.1 3021.1
Bound Test 3: Primary Balance Shock
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections primary
deficit
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8 30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.1 48.8 47.7 46.5 45.3
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5 17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.1 23.6 23.3
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2 2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 0.0
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7 2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 0.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 0.0
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.0 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -0.6
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0 27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3 32.2 32.1
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1 28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.2
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0 2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3 -1.3 -2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate 1.7 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0
Of which contribution from real growth -2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3 4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9 0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2 110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 152.2 152.0 147.7 144.3 140.9
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3 6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1 7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.5
For debt
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions stabilization
Nominal GDP ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ######
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1 3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2 11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1 7.7 7.9 7.9
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7 -5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.9
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3 1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0 2720.3 2746.7
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8 28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.0
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8 -22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9 16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0 10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.9 3.7
Stress Tests: Primary balance is at baseline minus one-half standard deviations in projection years
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years) Historical Standard
Average Deviation
Primary deficit -0.4 1.5
Real GDP growth (in percent) 2.1 2.6
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/ 11.1 1.6
Real interest rate (in percent) -0.7 4.3
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 11.7 5.1
Revenue to GDP ratio 28.4 2.1
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
Nominal spending 73867.8 81714.0 89619.2 96520.5 ###### ###### ######
Increase in percent 10.6 9.7 7.7 7.8 7.0 6.8
Increase in real spending in percent 6.0 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.9 3.7
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ######
Short term (same share as in baseline) 929.0 998.0 1105.6 1295.1 1046.4 641.8 195.9
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline) 6262.6 6802.9 8394.0 9965.3 11353.7 12921.1
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate) 13627.9 14219.4 13217.6 12665.8 12585.9 13489.5
Primary deficit -7194.4 -5771.8 -6020.1 -6704.8 -6948.3 -7416.5
Gross financing need (in local currency) 13625.2 16248.5 16697.0 17221.4 18037.7 19636.0
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average) 2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3 2992.1 3021.1
Bound Test 4: Combined 1/4 St
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential 3/ -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Tests: Combination of stress tests B1-B
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
Nominal spending
Increase in percent
Increase in real spending in percent
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Test 4: Combined 1/4 Standard Deviation Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.1
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 24.8
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.6
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 1.4 0.6 -0.7
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.9 29.8 30.0
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 3.7 2.8 1.7
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2
1.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
-2.0 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.3 1.5 0.5
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 153.6 154.9 151.9
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.3
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 6.1 5.9 6.1
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.4
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 11.7 10.2 9.2
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 7.4 7.9 8.3
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.0
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 2.4 3.1 3.8
bination of stress tests B1-B3 using 1/4 standard deviation shocks
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
73867.8 81714.0 87927.2 94104.9 #######
10.6 7.6 7.0 7.1
6.0 2.4 3.1 3.8
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1108.9 1303.1 1056.6
6262.6 6822.8 8446.1 10063.0
13627.9 15673.7 14838.5 14447.9
-7194.4 -6869.2 -7161.5 -7877.2
13625.2 16625.4 17232.0 17936.8
2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
48.3 47.5
24.6 24.4
-0.8 -0.8 0.0
-0.9 -0.9 0.0
-2.3 -2.3 -1.4
32.2 32.1
29.9 29.8
1.4 1.4 1.4
1.1 1.2 1.1
2.6 2.7 2.6
-1.5 -1.5 -1.5
0.3 0.2 0.2
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
150.0 148.0
5.3 5.4
6.3 6.9
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
3.4 3.4 3.4
8.8 9.0 9.0
8.5 8.6 8.6
5.8 6.0 6.0
2720.3 2746.7
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.3 -1.0 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
3.2 3.0
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
6.3 6.1
3.2 3.0
####### #######
650.6 199.4
11509.0 13151.9
14502.7 15553.1
-8157.4 -8658.0
18911.0 20697.5
2992.1 3021.1
Bound Test 5: Real Exch
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Tests: One time 30 percent r
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
7/ Real depreciation is defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic
Total debt
Foreign-currency denominated debt (in local currency terms)
in foreign currency (as in basline)
Share
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, US doller per LC (average)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 5: Real Exchange Rate Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 59.1 58.4 56.7
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 29.8 29.6 28.7
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 9.6 -0.7 -1.7
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 10.9 -0.3 -1.7
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.6
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 13.6 2.4 1.0
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4
1.7 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.6
-2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.2 -2.2
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 13.0 1.8 0.6
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 183.0 181.8 175.4
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.2 5.9 5.6
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 4.0 4.6 4.6
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 6.3 6.8 7.2
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 3497.0 3706.3 3776.9
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 54.1 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -35.1 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5
Tests: One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2006 7/
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
cal currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
####### ####### ####### #######
66945.1 ####### ####### #######
29.5 29.0 29.1 29.3
0.50 0.58 0.58 0.57
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1329.3 1548.8 1242.8
6262.6 8179.2 10038.9 11836.2
13627.9 14219.4 15891.8 15147.8
-7194.4 -8052.8 -8483.2 -9348.0
13625.2 15343.9 18776.8 19184.9
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2496.4 3846.3 4076.6 4154.2
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
54.8 52.9
27.8 27.2
-1.9 -1.9 0.0
-2.0 -2.0 0.0
-2.7 -2.7 -0.7
32.2 32.1
29.6 29.5
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.3 0.4 0.4
2.4 2.4 2.4
-2.1 -2.0 -2.0
0.4 0.3 0.3
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
170.1 164.7
5.4 5.4
4.7 5.0
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
4.0 4.0 4.0
7.7 7.9 7.9
7.4 7.5 7.5
4.7 4.9 4.9
3825.2 3862.3
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.000 0.000
-1.3 -1.0 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
3.9 3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
####### #######
29.7 30.4
0.57 0.56
####### #######
756.3 229.0
13379.0 15097.6
14948.8 15895.7
-9779.7 -10449.5
19790.9 21300.1
0.000 0.000
4207.4 4248.2
Bound Test 6: Contingen
(In percent of GDP, unless
1998 1999
I. Baseline Medium-Te
Public sector debt 1/ 28.2 24.6 27.8
o/w foreign-currency denominated 15.5 16.5
Change in public sector debt -3.6 3.2
Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12) -1.9 -1.7
Primary deficit -1.1 0.1
Revenue and grants 24.6 25.3 27.0
Primary (noninterest) expenditure 22.4 24.2 27.1
Automatic debt dynamics 2/ -0.6 -1.0
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential -3.3 -1.3
Of which contribution from real interest rate
Of which contribution from real growth
Contribution from exchange rate depreciation 4/ 2.7 0.3
Denominator = 1+g+p+gp 1.3 1.2
Other identified debt-creating flows -0.1 -0.8
Privatization receipts (negative) -0.1 -0.8
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0
Residual, including asset changes (2-3) -1.7 4.9
Public debt in percent of revenues 1/ 114.5 97.2 103.2
Gross financing 5/ 1.2 4.3
in billions of U.S. dollars 1.1 4.1
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Nominal GDP
Real GDP growth (in percent) 5.2 2.1
Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/ 10.2 13.2
Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt 9.0 7.9
Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent) -8.6 -3.7
Exchange rate (LC per US dollar) 831.3 987.7 1005.3
Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar) 18.8 1.8
Exchange rate (US dollar per LC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency) -15.8 -1.8
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) 18.9 16.9
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) 13.9 14.0
Stress Tests: 10 percent of GDP increase in
Historical Statistics for Key Variables (past 10 years)
Primary deficit
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Nominal interest rate (in percent) 6/
Real interest rate (in percent)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Revenue to GDP ratio
1/ Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.
2/ Derived as [(r - p(1+g) - g + ae(1+r)]/(1+g+p+gp)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; p = growth rate of GDP
3/ The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -
4/ The exchange rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as ae(1+r).
5/ Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previ
6/ Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.
In billions of local currency
Nominal debt alternative scenario
Short term (same share as in baseline)
Amortization of MLT debt (same maturity as in baseline)
Interest Expenditure (based on assumed interest rate)
Primary deficit
Gross financing need (in local currency)
Exchange rate, LC per US dollar (average)
Bound Test 6: Contingent Liability Shock
n percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I. Baseline Medium-Term Projections
30.2 32.8 41.4 47.7 51.8 60.0 56.3 49.4 49.5 58.3 57.6 55.9
17.8 20.6 25.0 26.3 28.5 31.9 29.9 24.4 24.7 29.4 29.3 28.3
2.4 2.6 8.5 6.4 4.1 8.2 -3.7 -6.9 0.1 8.9 -0.7 -1.7
2.0 3.1 7.3 1.9 0.9 7.1 -4.1 -7.1 -2.7 10.2 -0.3 -1.7
1.4 0.7 2.2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.5 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
27.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 29.5 29.3 30.6 32.5 32.9 32.3 32.1 32.3
28.8 27.5 29.5 27.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 29.6 30.2 29.5 29.5 29.6
2.0 2.5 5.8 3.3 2.3 7.5 -2.2 -4.3 0.0 2.9 2.3 1.0
-2.2 -0.7 1.4 -1.1 1.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4
1.7 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.6
-2.0 -1.8 -1.8 -2.2 -2.1
4.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 0.7 7.1 -0.9 -4.1 -1.2 2.3 1.7 0.6
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0
-1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 -0.4 1.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4 0.0
110.1 122.2 151.2 170.3 175.4 204.4 184.1 151.8 150.6 180.8 179.5 173.1
6.6 6.3 8.6 5.9 6.3 8.4 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.2 5.8 5.5
7.0 6.2 7.4 5.0 5.1 6.8 6.0 3.5 5.5 5.6 6.4 6.4
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
11.2 12.8 12.4 12.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 9.1 11.1 10.6 9.1 8.1
7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 9.3 7.8 7.5 6.8 8.1 6.3 6.8 7.2
-5.6 -2.0 -0.2 0.2 5.1 2.9 1.7 3.6 6.8 5.5 5.3 4.9
1293.6 1542.1 1873.8 2229.2 2291.2 2864.8 2778.2 2389.8 2269.6 2486.9 2635.8 2686.0
28.7 19.2 21.5 19.0 2.8 25.0 -3.0 -14.0 -5.0 9.6 6.0 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-22.3 -16.1 -17.7 -15.9 -2.7 -20.0 3.1 16.3 5.3 -8.7 -5.6 -1.9
16.8 14.8 12.6 12.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 5.5 4.3 5.1 3.8 3.2
10.1 -3.8 2.7 -5.5 5.5 4.5 2.8 7.6 6.0 1.7 3.7 4.5
percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2006
Historical Standard
Average Deviation
-0.4 1.5
2.1 2.6
11.1 1.6
-0.7 4.3
11.7 5.1
28.4 2.1
r net or gross debt is used.
ate; p = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; a = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciat
real growth contribution as -g.
ort-term debt at end of previous period.
####### ####### ####### ####### #######
929.0 998.0 1313.4 1529.3 1226.4
6262.6 8081.0 9912.0 11679.5
13627.9 14219.4 15700.9 14956.4
-7194.4 -8052.8 -8483.2 -9348.0
13625.2 15245.6 18443.0 18817.1
2496.4 2735.4 2899.1 2954.3
rojections
2012 2013
Debt-stabilizing
primary
deficit
54.0 52.1
27.5 26.8
-1.9 -1.9 0.0
-2.0 -2.0 0.0
-2.7 -2.7 -0.6
32.2 32.1
29.6 29.5
0.7 0.7 0.6
0.3 0.4 0.4
2.4 2.4 2.3
-2.1 -2.0 -1.9
0.4 0.3 0.3
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.1 0.0
167.7 162.3
5.3 5.3
6.5 6.9
For debt
stabilization
####### #######
4.0 4.0 4.0
7.7 7.9 7.9
7.4 7.5 7.5
4.7 4.9 4.9
2720.3 2746.7
1.3 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.3 -1.0 -1.0
3.0 3.0 3.0
3.9 3.7
= nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).
####### #######
745.8 225.6
13193.5 14878.1
14750.8 15675.3
-9779.7 -10449.5
19391.0 20849.7
2992.1 3021.1
