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LightCounting Optical Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Abstract:
This report presents historical data from 2007 to 2010 and a detailed market forecast through 2014 for SONET/SDH,
interconnects, sorted in over 100 product categories. The sales data for 2007 to 2010 account for sales of more than
confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2011 to 2014 is based on a model correlating tran
systems.
Historical data accounts for sales of the following vendors:
Vendor Source of Information
Avago Survey data
Civcom Survey data
Delta Survey data
eGTran Survey data
Emcore Survey data
Excelight Survey data
Fibercom Technologies Estimates
Finisar Survey data
Fujitsu Survey data
GigaLight Estimates
HG-Genuine Estimates
Hi-Optel Estimates
Hisense Estimates
Hitachi Cable Survey data
Hymax Optoelectronics Estimates
JDS Uniphase Survey data
Luxtera Survey data
Merge Optics (FCI) Survey data
NeoPhotonics Survey data
Oclaro Estimates
OE Solutions Estimates
Opnext Survey data
Photop Technologies Survey data
Source Photonics Survey data
StarOpto Estimates
Teleoptix Survey data
WTD Survey data
Zarlink (Tyco) Survey data
If you have any questions or comments, please contact LIGHTCOUNTING at:
info@lightcounting.com
The LightCounting detailed transceiver market survey results contains material that is confidential, privileged, compa
product for the sole use of the intended recipient being LightCounting vendor participants and subscribers. Any revie
reliance or distribution by others or forwarding without LightCounting's expressed permission is strictly prohibited.
hrough 2014 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, and optical
account for sales of more than 25 optical component and module vendors, including 20 vendors that shared
sed on a model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx
confidential, privileged, company
nts and subscribers. Any review,
mission is strictly prohibited.
Forecast Methodology
LightCounting forecasting begins with a set of key assumptions such as traffic capacity growth projections and projec
subscribers of FTTx systems, and then uses a combination of historical data extrapolation, expert opinions and vario
Historical Trend Extrapolation
Expert Opinions
Aggregated Traffic Capacity
Growth Projections Cross-impact Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Financial Analysis
One of the model assumptions is that growth in aggregated transceiver capacity is correlated with traffic growth
However, we found that this is not a one-to-one correlation. While network traffic growth is typically 35-45 % per year
This suggests that either networks become more efficient over time, requiring less interface modules to transmit the
Please refer tp the forecast report appendices for detailed discussion of the methodology.
Growth of aggregated capacity of optical transceivers
Market Segment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SONET / SDH
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
CWDM / DWDM
LightCounting forecasting involves combining forecasts from more than one source and uses various methods.
Trend extrapolation
Forecast methodology is based on extrapolation of historical transceiver sales using product life-cycle model (S-curv
methodology) for individual products. Information on historical sales of transceivers is obtained by means of LightCou
Expert Opinions
LightCounting forecasting highly involves industry expert opinions as well as discussions with transceiver vendors, th
suppliers and customers. It is through the synthesis of these opinions that a final forecast is obtained.
Cross-impact Analysis
Relationships often exist between legacy and new products that may not be revealed by any forecasting techniques.
LightCounting forecasting recognizes that the occurrence of an event can, in turn, affect the likelihoods of other even
as the impact of 40-Gbps sales on 10-Gbps sales, and expects similar penetration rates for new product introduction
Scenario Analysis
Scenarios consider developments such as new data rates, form factors or possible growth rates. Expert opinions are
used to evaluate and compare different scenarios and pick the most possible one.
Financial Analysis
LightCounting makes global economic and financial analysis of specific companies, use publicly available information
as SEC filings, company presentations or other market researches as input to its forecasting.
LightCounting makes global economic and financial analysis of specific companies, use publicly available information
as SEC filings, company presentations or other market researches as input to its forecasting.
Optical Interconnects Analysis & Methodology
The Optical Interconnect (OI) Forecast section – covers miscellaneous other datacom optical links. There are two m
interconnect section: Router Optical Interconnects and Active Optical Cables (AOCs). More about the OI methodolog
Interconnects Tab.
wth projections and projected
expert opinions and various
LightCounting Forecasting
ed with traffic growth
ypically 35-45 % per year, the aggregated transceiver capacity grows 20-30% annually.
modules to transmit the same amount of traffic or utilization of the network capasity is increasing.
2012 2013
es various methods.
t life-cycle model (S-curve
ned by means of LightCounting
th transceiver vendors, their
obtained.
y forecasting techniques.
likelihoods of other events such
new product introductions.
rates. Expert opinions are often
blicly available information such
g.
blicly available information such
g.
al links. There are two main categories in the optical
about the OI methodology is covered under the Optical
LightCounting, LLC. Transceiver and Optical Interconnect Market Forecast Su
Worldwide Transceiver Market Forecast Figures
Sales ($M)
$-
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Market 1999 2000 2001
Total Transceiver Sales
Annual Growth Rate
Global Transceiver Sales Growth Forecasts Per Segment
Market Segment 2009 2010 CAGR, 2011-14
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
SONET/SDH
CWDM / DWDM
Optical Interconnects
FTTx
Wireless Infrastructure
TOTAL
Transceiver Sales by Market Segments (Historical Data and Forecast)
$200
Ethernet
Sales ($M) Fibre Channel
SONET/SDH
CWDM / DWDM
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M
Market Segment 2007 2008 2009
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
SONET/SDH
CWDM / DWDM
Optical Interconnects
FTTx
Wireless Infrastructure
TOTAL
SONET/SDH Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
$400.0
$300.0
Sales ($M)
$200.0
$100.0
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SONET/SDH Sales ($M
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
OC-3/OC-12
OC-48
OC-192
OC-768
TOTAL
SONET/SDH Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
SONET/SDH Transceiver Shipments (2006
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Units
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SONET/SDH Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
OC-3/OC-12
OC-48
OC-192
OC-768
TOTAL
SONET/SDH OC-192 Transceiver Unit Shipments by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
1,500,000
1,000,000
Units
500,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SONET/SDH Units
Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
300-pin
XFP
SFP+
Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
WDM 400,000
DWDM
300,000
DWDM
Gbps
Units
200,000
DWDM
Gbps
100,000
CWDM
Gbps
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DWDM/CWDM Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
CWDM - Up to 4 Gbps
DWDM - Up to 4 Gbps
DWDM - 10 Gbps
DWDM - 40/100 Gbps
TOTAL
Tunable 10-Gbps WDM Transceiver Unit Shipments by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
1
1
1
Units
1
0
0
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10G DWDM Tunables Units
Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
XFP fixed wavelength
300-pin fixed wavelenth
300-pin tunable
XFP tunable
FTTx Transceiver Unit Shipments by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
Units
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FTTx Units
Product Group 2007 2008 2009
BPON
GPON
EPON
Next Generation PON
Point-to-point
TOTAL
Sales of Optical Modules employed in Wireless Infrastructure (Historical Data and Forecast)
$1
$1
$1
1-3 Gbps
$1
6 Gbps
$0 10 Gbps
$0
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wireless Infrastructure Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
1-3 Gbps
6 Gbps
10 Gbps
TOTAL
Sales of Datacom Optical Interfaces by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
$1,200
$1,000
$800
Sales ($M)
$600
$400
$200
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Optical Interconnects Sales ($M
Interfaces 2007 2008 2009
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
Optical Interconnects
TOTAL
10-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments by Reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
8,000,000
Short
reach
6,000,000 (<1 km)
Units
4,000,000
Long
reach
(>1 km)
2,000,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10 GigE by Reach Units
Product Group 2007 2008 2009
Short reach (<1 km)
Long reach (>1 km)
10-GigE Unit Shipments by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
8,000,000
6,000,000
X2 and other
Units
4,000,000
XFP
2,000,000
SFP+
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10 GigE Units
Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
X2 and other
XFP
SFP+
Ethernet Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
Units
Units
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ethernet Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
Fast Ethernet
1 GigE
10 GigE
40/100 GigE
TOTAL
Fibre 12,000,000 Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
Channel
10,000,000
8,000,000
Units
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fibre Channel Transceivers Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
Up to 4 Gbps
Up to 8 Gbps
Up to 16 Gbps
TOTAL
Optical Interconnect Sales by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
Router
interconnects
Sales ($M)
Active Optical
Cables
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Optical Interconnects Units
Product Group 2007 2008 2009
Router interconnects
Active Optical Cables
TOTAL
Router Interconnect Module Unit Shipments by Type* (Historical Data and Forecast)
1
1 4-channel transmitters
and receivers
1
12-channel
transmitters and
Units
1 receivers
4-channel transceivers
0
12-channel
0 transceivers
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Router Interconnects Units
Product Group 2007 2008 2009
4-channel transmitters and receivers
12-channel transmitters and receivers
4-channel transceivers
12-channel transceivers
TOTAL
Active Optical Cable Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
1
1
1
Units
1
0
0
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Active Optical Cables Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
Up to 4 x 10-Gbps and above
12 x 10-Gbps
TOTAL
Network bandidwth growth rates
Network Bandwidth Growth Network Traffic Growth
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2005 2006 2007
SONET/SDH
WDM
Network Bandwidth Growth
Network Traffic Growth
SONET/SDH
CWDM/DWDM
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
Property of LightCounting, LLC. LightCounting Optical Transceiver Market Forecast Report - March 2010
The LightCounting detailed transceiver market survey results contains material that is confidential, privileged, company
the intended recipient being LightCounting vendor participants and subscribers. Any review, reliance or distribution by
without LightCounting's expressed permission is strictly prohibited.
ect Market Forecast Summary
2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual transceiver sales
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Forecast)
$200
FTTx
FTTx
Ethernet
Sales ($M)
Optical
Fibre Channel
Interconne
cts
SONET/SDH Wireless
Infrastructu
re
CWDM / DWDM
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M) CAGR
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010-2014
OC-768
OC-192
OC-48
OC-3/OC-12
2013 2014
Sales ($M) CAGR
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010-2014
a and Forecast)
ents (2006-2013)
OC-3/OC-12
OC-48
OC-192
OC-768
2012 2013 2014
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
torical Data and Forecast)
$1
$1
300-pin $1
Sales ($M)
$1
XFP
$0
SFP+
$0
$-
2007 2008 2009
2014
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
and Forecast)
1
DWDM - 10 Gbps
1
DWDM - 40/100
Number of ports
1
Gbps
DWDM - Up to 4 1
Gbps
0
CWDM - Up to 4
Gbps 0
0
2007 2008
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Modulation
DP-QPSK
DQPSK
DPSK
Proprietary
Historical Data and Forecast)
XFP tunable
XFP fixed wavelength
300-pin tunable
300-pin fixed
wavelenth
2013 2014
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FTTx Transceiver Sales by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
$200
$150
BPON
Sales ($M)
GPON
$100
EPON
Next Generation PON
Point-to-point $50
$-
2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
and Forecast)
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
d Forecast)
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
Optical
Interconnects
2014
Sales ($M)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Short
reach
(<1 km)
Long
reach
(>1 km)
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
nd Forecast)
X2 and other
XFP
SFP+
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
d Forecast)
Fast Ethernet
1 GigE
10 GigE
10 GigE
40/100 GigE
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ata and Forecast) Fibre Channel Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (H
$1
$1
Up to 4 Gbps
$1
Sales ($M)
Up to 8 Gbps $1
$0
Up to 16 Gbps
$0
$-
2007 2008 2009
2013 2014
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
Router
interconnects
Active Optical
Cables
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
and Forecast)
4-channel transmitters
and receivers
12-channel
transmitters and
Sales ($M)
receivers
4-channel transceivers
12-channel
transceivers
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
Active Optical Cables Market (2006
Up to 4 x 10-Gbps
and above
Sales ($M)
12 x 10-Gbps
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008
2008 2009 2010
Report - March 2010
is confidential, privileged, company product for the sole use of
y review, reliance or distribution by others or forwarding
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FTTx
FTTx
Optical
Interconne
Wireless
Infrastructu
XFP
300-pin
SFP+
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DP-QPSK
DQPSK
DPSK
Proprietary
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Number of Ports
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
al Data and Forecast)
BPON
GPON
EPON
Next Generation PON
Point-to-point
2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
`
40-GigE and 100-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments (Forecast)
150,000
100,000
Units
40 GigE
100 GigE
Units
100 GigE
50,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ethernet Units
Data Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
40 GigE
100 GigE
Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
Up to 4 Gbps
Up to 8 Gbps
Up to 16 Gbps
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4-channel
transmitters and
receivers
12-channel
transmitters and
receivers
4-channel
transceivers
12-channel
transceivers
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
bles Market (2006-2013)
Up to 4 x 10-Gbps
and above
12 x 10-Gbps
2012 2013 2014
Sales ($M)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2014
Ethernet Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 4: Ethernet transceivers
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor
Ethernet over copper 15 m 10 GigE CX4 All
XENPAK/XPAK
X2
Ethernet 28–70 m 10 GigE
XFP
SFP+ all
Ethernet over copper 100 m GigE All
QSFP
40 GigE
CFP
100 m
CXP
100 GigE
CFP
10 GigE LX4 all
Ethernet 300 m X2/XENPAK
10 GigE LRM
SFP+
SFF
SFP
500 m Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
GBIC
1x9/2x9
2 km Fast Ethernet All
SFF
Ethernet
10 km Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) SFP
GBIC/other
XENPAK
X2
10 GigE/Fibre Channel XFP
10 km SFP+
300-pin/XPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
15 km Fast Ethernet All
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
Ethernet X2
XFP
40 km 10 GigE/Fibre Channel
SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
80 km XFP
10 GigE/Fibre Channel SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK/X2
TOTAL
Pricing ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor
Ethernet over copper 15m 10 GigE CX4 All
XENPAK/XPAK
X2
Ethernet 28–70 m 10 GigE/Fibre Channel
XFP
SFP+ all
Ethernet over copper 100 m GigE All
QSFP
40 GigE
CFP
100 m
CXP
100 GigE
CFP
10 GigE LX4 all
Ethernet 300 m X2/XENPAK
10 GigE LRM
SFP+
SFF
SFP
500 m Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
GBIC
1x9/2x9
SFF
10 km Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) SFP
GBIC/other
XENPAK
X2
10 GigE/Fibre Channel XFP
10 km SFP+
300-pin/XPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
15 km Fast Ethernet All
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
Ethernet X2
XFP
40 km 10 GigE/Fibre Channel
SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
80 km XFP
10 GigE/Fibre Channel SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK/X2
Sales ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor
Ethernet over copper 15m 10 GigE CX4 All
XENPAK/XPAK
X2
Ethernet 28–70 m 10 GigE/Fibre Channel
XFP
SFP+ all
Ethernet over copper 100 m GigE All
QSFP
40 GigE
CFP
100 m
CXP
100 GigE
CFP
Ethernet
10 GigE LX4 all
Ethernet 300 m X2/XENPAK
10 GigE LRM
SFP+
SFF
SFP
500 m Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
GBIC
1x9/2x9
2 km Fast Ethernet All
SFF
Ethernet
10 km Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) SFP
GBIC/other
XENPAK
X2
10 GigE/Fibre Channel XFP
SFP+
300-pin/XPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
15 km Fast Ethernet All
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
Ethernet X2
XFP
40 km 10 GigE/Fibre Channel
SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK
40 GigE CFP
100 GigE CFP
SFP
Gigabit Ethernet (GigE)
Other
80 km XFP
10 GigE/Fibre Channel SFP+
300-pin/XENPAK/X2
TOTAL
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
Fibre Channel Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 5: Fibre Channel transceivers
Units
Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
28–70m Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
All Up to 16 Gbps SFP+
150 m Up to 4 Gbps all
4 km 4 Gbps SFF/SFP
10 km Up to 4 Gbps SFF/SFP
1.4-10 km Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
10 km 16 G SFP+
TOTAL
Pricing ($)
Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
28–70m Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
All Up to 16 Gbps SFP+
150 m Up to 4 Gbps all
4 km 4 Gbps All
10 km Up to 4 Gbps All
1.4-10 km Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
10 km 16G SFP+
Sales ($)
Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009
28–70m Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
All Up to 16 Gbps SFP+
150 m Up to 4 Gbps all
4 km 4 Gbps All
10 km Up to 4 Gbps All
1.4-10 km Up to 8 Gbps SFP+
10 km 16 G SFP+
TOTAL
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SONET/SDH Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 6: SONET/SDH transceivers
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
OC-3/12 All
0.5–7 km
OC-48 all
300-pin
SONET
OC-192 XFP
2–12 km
SFP+
OC-768 All
SFF
OC-3 SFP
other
SONET 15 km
SFF
OC-12 SFP
other
SFP
SONET 20 km OC-48
other
SFP
OC-3
other
SFP
OC-12
other
SONET 25-40 km
OC-48 All
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
SFP+
SFP
OC-3
other
OC-12 all
SONET 80 km OC-48 all
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
SFP+
TOTAL
Pricing ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
OC-12 All
0.5–7 km
OC-48 all
300-pin
SONET
OC-192 XFP
2–12 km
SFP+
OC-768 All
SFF
OC-3 SFP
other
SONET 15 km
SFF
OC-12 SFP
other
SFP
SONET 20 km OC-48
other
SFP
OC-3
SONET 25-40 km
OC-3
other
SFP
OC-12
other
SONET 25-40 km
OC-48 SFP
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
SFP+
SFP
OC-3
other
OC-12 all
SONET 80 km OC-48 all
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
other
Sales ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
OC-3/12 All
0.5–7 km
OC-48 all
300-pin
SONET
OC-192 XFP
2–12 km
SFP+
OC-768 All
SFF
OC-3 SFP
other
SONET 15 km
SFF
OC-12 SFP
other
SFP
SONET 20 km OC-48
other
SFP
OC-3
other
SFP
OC-12
other
SONET 25-40 km
OC-48 all
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
SFP+
SFP
OC-3
other
OC-12 all
SONET 80 km OC-48 all
300-pin
OC-192 XFP
SFP+
TOTAL
2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 7: CWDM and DWDM transceivers
Units
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
1 Gbps All
40 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
CWDM 1 Gbps All
80 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 80 km Up to OC-48 All
Up to 1 Gbps All
40–120 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 120 km OC-48 All
300-pin
DWDM All OC-192 fixed wavelength XFP
Other
300-pin
All OC-192 Tunable
XFP tunable
OC-768 All
> 120 km
100 Gbps All
TOTAL WDM
Pricing ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
1 Gbps All
40 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
CWDM 1 Gbps All
80 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 80 km Up to OC-48 All
Up to 1 Gbps All
40–120 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 120 km OC-48 All
300-pin
DWDM All OC-192 fixed wavelength XFP
Other
300-pin
All OC-192 Tunable
XFP tunable
OC-768 All
> 120 km
100 Gbps All
Sales ($)
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007
1 Gbps All
40 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
CWDM
CWDM 1 Gbps All
80 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 80 km Up to OC-48 All
Up to 1 Gbps All
40–120 km OC-48 All
4 Gbps SFP
> 120 km OC-48 All
300-pin
DWDM All OC-192 fixed wavelength XFP
Other
300-pin
All OC-192 Tunable
XFP tunable
OC-768 All
> 120 km
100 Gbps All
TOTAL WDM
2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
2012 2013 2014
FTTx Transceiver Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 8: FTTx transceivers
Units
Application Product Group 2007 2008
BPON
GPON
EPON
WDM PON
FTTx
10G PON
Total PON (ONU/OLT/Triplexer)
Point-to-point
TOTAL
Pricing ($)
Application Product Group 2007 2008
BPON
GPON
EPON
FTTx
WDM PON
10G PON
Point-to-point
Sales ($)
Application Product Group 2007 2008
BPON
GPON
EPON
WDM PON
FTTx
10G PON
Total PON (ONU/OLT/Triplexer)
Point-to-point
TOTAL
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Optical Interconnects Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 9: Optical Interconnects
Units
Application Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
4 Channel Transmitters 4 x 3.125 Gbps and below
and Receivers (Not 4 x 5 Gbps and below
Pairs) 4 x 10 Gbps and above
12 x 3.125 Gbps and below
12 Channel
12 x 5 Gbps, 12 x 6.25 Gbps
Transmitters and
12 x 10 Gbps
Receivers (Not Pairs)
12 x 12.5-25 Gbps
4 x 2.5 Gbps
4 x 3.25 Gbps
4 Channel Transceivers 4 x 5 Gbps
4 x 10 Gbps
4 x 12.5-25 Gbps
12 Channel Transceivers All
Up to 4 x 10 Gbps
Active Optical Cables 4x12.5-25 Gbps
12 x 10 Gbps
TOTAL ROUTER INTERCONNECTS
TOTAL ACTIVE OPTICAL CABLES
TOTAL OPTICAL INTERCONNECTS
Pricing ($)
Application Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
4 Channel Transmitters 4 x 3.125 Gbps and below
and Receivers (Not 4 x 5 Gbps and below
Pairs) 4 x 10 Gbps and above
12 Channel 12 x 3.125 Gbps and below
Transmitters and 12 x 5 Gbps, 12 x 6.25 Gbps
12 x 10 Gbps
12 x 12.5-25 Gbps
4 x 2.5 Gbps
4 x 3.25 Gbps
4 Channel Transceivers 4 x 5 Gbps
4 x 10 Gbps
4 x 12.5-25 Gbps
12 Channel Transceivers All
Up to 4 x 10
Active Optical Cables* 4x12.5-25 Gbps
12 x 10
* ASPs assume 10m cable length
Sales ($)
Application Data Rate 2007 2008 2009
4 Channel Transmitters 4 x 3.125 Gbps and below
and Receivers (Not 4 x 5 Gbps and below
Pairs) 4 x 10 Gbps and above
12 x 3.125 Gbps and below
12 Channel
12 x 5 Gbps, 12 x 6.25 Gbps
Transmitters and
12 x 10 Gbps
Receivers (Not Pairs)
12 Channel
Transmitters and
Receivers (Not Pairs)
12 x 12.5-25 Gbps
4 x 2.5 Gbps
4 x 3.25 Gbps
4 Channel Transceivers 4 x 5 Gbps
4 x 10 Gbps
4 x 12.5-25 Gbps
12 Channel Transceivers All
Up to 4x10 Gbps
Active Optical Cables 4x12.5-25 Gbps
12 x 10 Gbps and above
TOTAL ROUTER INTERCONNECTS
TOTAL ACTIVE OPTICAL CABLES
TOTAL OPTICAL INTERCONNECTS
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wireless Infrastructure Market Forecast
September _ 2010
Page 10: Wireless Infrastructure
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009 2010
3 Gbps all
up to 0.5 km 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
0.5-7 km
Wireless Infrastructure 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
10-80 km
6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009 2010
3 Gbps all
up to 0.5 km 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
0.5-7 km
Wireless Infrastructure 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
10-80 km
6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
Application Reach Data Rate Form Factor 2007 2008 2009 2010
3 Gbps all
up to 0.5 km 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
0.5-7 km
Wireless Infrastructure 6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
1 Gbps all
3 Gbps all
10-80 km
6 Gbps all
10 Gbps all
total
2011 2012 2013 2014
2011 2012 2013 2014
2011 2012 2013 2014
Optical Transceiver Total Available Market (Units)
September _ 2010
Page 11: Port Counts
Summary of Transceiver (optical module) Units
Application Data Rate Reach 2006
0.5/7 km
15 km
OC-3/OC-12
25/40 km
80 km
0.5/7 km
20 km
SONET/SDH OC-48
25/40 km
80 km
2/12 km
OC-192 25/40 km
80 km
OC-768 2 km
Fast Ethernet 2-15 km
<500 m
GigE, 1 2-15 km
40-80 km
Ethernet <500 m
10 GigE 2-15 km
40-80 km
40 GigE all
100 GigE all
1&2 Gbps
4 Gbps
Fibre Channel All
8 Gbps
16 Gbps
CWDM Up to 4 Gbps All
1 Gbps
OC-48
4 Gbps
DWDM All
OC-192
OC-768
100 Gbps
1 Gbps
3 Gbps
Wireless all
6 Gbps
10 Gbps
LightCounting Explanations and Assumptions of Total Port Count Calculation:
LightCounting collects and reports only optical transceiver (module) data from transceiver vendors.
However, there are also discrete components used in the SONET/SDH and DWDM applications.
That is, Total Optical Ports=Transceivers (Optical Modules) + Discrete components
The table below shows the percentages of discrete components by application, data rate and reach.
For example, the % in Cell D60 means, 2% of total optical ports shipped in 2006 were discrete components and 98% were opti
LightCounting assumes that the use of discrete components will decline over time as transceiver modules gain market share.
But there will always be a small fraction (%) of interfaces built out of discrete components.
% of Discrete Components
Application Data Rate Reach 2006
0.5/7 km
15 km
OC-3/OC-12
25/40 km
80 km
0.5/7 km
20 km
SONET/SDH OC-48
25/40 km
80 km
2/12 km
OC-192 25/40 km
80 km
OC-768 2 km
Fast Ethernet 2-15 km
<500 m
1 GigE 2-15 km
40-80 km
Ethernet <500 m
10 GigE 2-15 km
40-80 km
40 GigE all
100 GigE All
1&2 Gbps
4 Gbps
Fibre Channel All
8 Gbps
16 Gbps
CWDM up to 4 Gbps
1 Gbps
OC-48
4 Gbps
DWDM All
OC-192
OC-768
100 Gbps
1 Gbps
3 Gbps
Wireless Backhaul all
6 Gbps
10 Gbps
TOTAL Optical Ports
Application Data Rate Reach 2006
0.5/7 km
15 km
OC-3/OC-12
25/40 km
80 km
0.5/7 km
20 km
SONET/SDH OC-48
SONET/SDH OC-48
25/40 km
80 km
2/12 km
OC-192 25/40 km
80 km
OC-768 2 km
Fast Ethernet 2-15 km
<500 m
1 GigE 2-15 km
40-80 km
Ethernet <500 m
10 GigE 2-15 km
40-80 km
40 GigE all
100 GigE All
1&2 Gbps
4 Gbps
Fibre Channel All
8 Gbps
16 Gbps
CWDM up to 4 Gbps
1 Gbps
OC-48
4 Gbps
DWDM All
OC-192
OC-768
100 Gbps
1 Gbps
3 Gbps
Wireless Backhaul all
6 Gbps
10 Gbps
Aggregated bandwidth calculations 2000-2004 2005 2006
annual
SONET/SDH aggregated 12
growth rate
annual
Ethernet aggregated 40
growth rate
annual
Fibre Channel aggregated 60
growth rate
annual
WDM aggregated 3.2
growth rate
annual
Wireless Backhaul aggregated 3
growth rate
40G ports total
DP-QPSK
DQPSK
DPSK
Other
DP-QPSK
DQPSK
DPSK
Other
2005 2006
SONET/SDH
CWDM/DWDM
Ethernet
Fibre Channel
Wireless Backhaul
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ents and 98% were optical modules (transceivers).
es gain market share.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DP-QPSK
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DP-QPSK
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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