Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries – towards

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					Center for Ecology and Demography, Russian
  Academy of Sciences, February 15 2007.

Immigration and ethnic change in
low-fertility countries – towards a
  new demographic transition?




   David Coleman, University of Oxford
     david.coleman@socres.ox.ac.uk
                 Two major aims
• To review likely demographic consequences of
  immigration to Europe in selected countries (none yet
  published in English), on population size and on ethnic
  composition (US projections presumably too well known to need
  repetition here).


• To present preliminary projections, including probabilistic
  projections, of demographic and ethnic change from
  migration to the UK, incorporating the growth of mixed-
  origin population.
      Some statistical problems
• No European country except UK uses ‘ethnic’
  criteria in censuses or surveys.
• European published data based on citizen /
  foreigner distinction (not birthplace).
• High rate of naturalisation makes foreign-citizen
  populations disappear, unlike ‘ethnic’ criterion.
• Projections must take that account, allow for
  naturalisation or construct ‘foreign background /
  origin’ populations using register data.
     Comparison of foreign citizen and immigrant
       populations, selected countries 1990s.

                       Population      Born abroad       Foreign nationality Foreign as
                                                                               % of
Country                  (millions) (millions)       (%) (millions)     (%) immigrant

Denmark         1996           5.3        0.26       5.0         0.24    4.5       91.7
France          1999          59.2        6.28      10.6         3.26    5.5       52.0
Netherlands     1995          15.5        1.41       9.1         0.68    4.4       48.3
Norway          1996           4.4        0.25       5.6         0.16    3.6       63.8
Sweden          1996           8.8        0.94      10.7         0.53    6.0       55.8
Great Britain   1991          54.9        3.75       6.8         1.79    3.3       47.8

Sources: OECD 1998 table B.1.5, B.1.6; Council of Europe 1998, UN 2002
 Netherlands: foreign citizen and foreign –
   origin populations 1956 – 2003 (1000s).
                                                   Source: CBS.
3500

3000                 Foreign citizens
                     All foreign origin
2500                 First generation, all foreign origin
                     Second generation, all foreign
                     origin
2000                              f i        i i


1500

1000

 500

   0
       1955

              1958

                       1961

                              1964

                                     1967

                                            1970

                                                   1973

                                                          1976

                                                                 1979

                                                                        1982

                                                                               1985

                                                                                      1988

                                                                                             1991

                                                                                                    1994

                                                                                                           1997

                                                                                                                  2000

                                                                                                                         2003
    Examples (1) Sweden: 2020
     assumptions for projection
• Six sub-populations projected.
• Foreign background population: immigrants plus
  those with two foreign born parents.
• Swedish background – all others: therefore
  without immigration, all eventually become
  Swedish.
• Swedish TFR 1.78; foreign 1.69 - 2.50.
• Net immigration 25k (18k mid-HDI countries)
     Sweden 1980. Projected population by
      ‘background’ to 2020 and 2050 (%)
            Foreign -born and foreign origin population in Sweden, 1980 - 2020,
              percent of total population. Source: Statistics Sweden 2003, 2004, Akers pers. comm.
35


30      Foreign birthplace 2000-based
        projection
        Foreign background 2000-based
25
        projection
        Foreign background 2003-based
20      projection by subtraction


15


10


5
     1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035   2040   2045   2050
          Sweden 2004-2050: projected total
        population, millions, standard and zero-
                migration assumptions.
          Projected total population, Sweden 2004-2050, standard and zero
                     migration assumptions. Source: Statistics Sweden.
11.0


10.5
              Zero-migration projection (millions)

              Standard projection (millions)
10.0


 9.5


 9.0


 8.5


 8.0
       2004
              2006
                     2008
                            2010
                                   2012
                                          2014
                                                 2016
                                                        2018
                                                               2020
                                                                      2022
                                                                             2024
                                                                                    2026
                                                                                           2028
                                                                                                  2030
                                                                                                         2032
                                                                                                                2034
                                                                                                                       2036
                                                                                                                              2038
                                                                                                                                     2040
                                                                                                                                            2042
                                                                                                                                                   2044
                                                                                                                                                          2046
                                                                                                                                                                 2048
                                                                                                                                                                        2050
     Example (2) Netherlands.
    Assumptions for projections
• Three major groups: Dutch, ‘Western’ and ‘non-
  Western’ foreign origin, each first and second
  generation.
• First generation – person born outside Netherlands
  with at least one parent born outside.
• Second generation – person born in Netherlands
  with at least one parent born outside (i.e. less
  inclusive than Swedish ‘rules’, but without
  immigration everyone is eventually ‘Dutch’.
Netherlands total population, millions, 2003-
 2050, medium variant and zero migration
                projections.
             Netherlands 2003-2050 projections, medium variant and zero-
                migration (millions). Source: Statistics Netherlands 2003-based projections.
 19


 18


 17


 16


 15


 14


 13


 12
      1995



              2000



                       2005



                                2010



                                        2015



                                                 2020



                                                          2025



                                                                      2030



                                                                                  2035



                                                                                           2040



                                                                                                       2045



                                                                                                              2050
                      total-medium variant     total-zero migration          native - zero migration
Netherlands 23 2050. Percent of population
of foreign origin, medium variant and zero-
           migration projections.
            Netherlands 2003-2050. Percent of population foreign, medium variant
             and zero-migration projections. Source: Statistics Netherlands 2003-based projections.
35

             Percent population foreign - medium variant
30
             percent population foreign - zero migration


25



20



15



10
     1995      2000     2005     2010     2015     2020    2025    2030    2035     2040    2045      2050
     England and Wales 2001-2051, percent of
      population of non British or Irish origin.
             England and Wales 2001-2051, percent of population of non
                              British or Irish origin
45

40          percent not British or Irish: white and non-
            white immigration
35
            percent non British or Irish: non-white
            immigration only
30
            percent non British or Irish: natural change
25          only

20

15

10

5

0
     2001



                2006



                          2011



                                     2016



                                                2021



                                                           2026



                                                                  2031



                                                                         2036



                                                                                2041



                                                                                       2046



                                                                                              2051
        England and Wales total population, 2001 -
           2051, variant migration projections.
          England and Wales population projection 2001-2050, variant migration
                                     assumptions
60000

                natural change
58000
                non-white migration only

56000


54000


52000


50000


48000


46000
         2001


                     2006


                                 2011


                                        2016


                                               2021


                                                      2026


                                                             2031


                                                                    2036


                                                                           2041


                                                                                  2046


                                                                                         2051
  Probabilistic projections of UK
     population - assumptions
• 1000 runs. Gross amalgamation of ethnic groups.
• 95% bounds defined by GAD variant projections
• White and ‘mixed’ TFR converges to 1.85, non-
  European to 2.0. Mortality as in GAD projections.
• White net immigration ceases, non-white net
  immigration continues 147k/year.
• 20% births to black population mixed; 13% to
  Asian, increase to 35% and 25%. ‘Mixed’ an
  ‘absorbing’ category.
        Probabilistic projections of the UK –
       average outcome for major groups (%).
             UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic
                            group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.
100

 90

 80

 70

 60
                           White
 50                        Black
                           Asian
 40
                           Mixed
 30

 20

 10

  0
      2001

             2005

                    2010

                            2015

                                   2020

                                          2025

                                                 2030

                                                        2035

                                                               2040

                                                                      2045

                                                                             2050

                                                                                    2055

                                                                                           2060

                                                                                                  2065

                                                                                                         2070

                                                                                                                2075

                                                                                                                       2080

                                                                                                                              2085

                                                                                                                                     2090

                                                                                                                                            2095

                                                                                                                                                   2100
    Probabilistic projection of the UK –
population distribution by sex, age and major
                group in 2050
                 UK,Population by age, sex and major ethnic group - 2050
   Age                                                                                         Period of Birth


   105                                                                                              1945
               males                                                                 females
   100                                                                                              1950
    95                                                                                              1955
    90                                                                                              1960
    85                                                                                              1965
    80                                                                                              1970
    75                                                                                              1975
    70                                                                                              1980
    65                                                                                              1985
    60                                                                                              1990
    55                                                                                              1995
    50                                                                                              2000
    45                                                                                              2005
    40                                                                                              2010
    35                                                                                              2015
    30                                                                                              2020
    25                                                                                              2025
    20                                                                                              2030
    15                                                                                              2035
    10                                                                                              2040
     5                                                                                              2045
     0                                                                                              2050
     500.0   400.0     300.0   200.0   100.0    0.0    0.0   100.0   200.0   300.0     400.0   500.0
                                           Population (thousands)
                                                                  UK total population
                                                                                                     Uk,The whole country,Both Sexes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Fra cti les
                                     100 000.00

                                      90 000.00

                                      80 000.00
   Total p opulatio n (thou sands)




                                      70 000.00

                                      60 000.00

                                      50 000.00

                                      40 000.00

                                      30 000.00

                                      20 000.00

                                      10 000.00

                                          0.00
                                                  2000

                                                         2005

                                                                2010

                                                                       2015

                                                                                 2020

                                                                                            2025

                                                                                                        2030

                                                                                                                   2035

                                                                                                                          2040

                                                                                                                                 2045

                                                                                                                                         2050

                                                                                                                                                2055

                                                                                                                                                       2060

                                                                                                                                                              2065

                                                                                                                                                                     2070

                                                                                                                                                                            2075

                                                                                                                                                                                   2080

                                                                                                                                                                                          2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2100
                                                                                                                                        Year
         '
S er gei s Office PII I, file: D:\I IASA2005\Mi norities \result s\[ charts _OK_2100_ok_new2_2.x ls] ,01-Mar -05 11:12
                                                                                   White population
                                                                                                                         Uk,White,Both Sexes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Fra cti les
                                  60 000.00



                                  50 000.00
   Total population (thousands)




                                  40 000.00



                                  30 000.00



                                  20 000.00



                                  10 000.00



                                      0.00
                                              2000

                                                     2005

                                                            2010

                                                                    2015

                                                                               2020

                                                                                           2025

                                                                                                      2030

                                                                                                                  2035

                                                                                                                          2040

                                                                                                                                 2045

                                                                                                                                         2050

                                                                                                                                                2055

                                                                                                                                                       2060

                                                                                                                                                              2065

                                                                                                                                                                     2070

                                                                                                                                                                            2075

                                                                                                                                                                                   2080

                                                                                                                                                                                          2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2100
                                                                                                                                        Year
   r i'
S e ge s Office PII I, file: D:\I IASA2005\Mi norities \result s\[ charts _OK_2100_ok_new2_2.x ls] ,01-Mar -05   10:59
                                                                                             UK Black population

                                                                                                                         Uk,Black,Both Sexes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Fra cti les
                                  16 000.00


                                  14 000.00
   Total population (thousands)




                                  12 000.00


                                  10 000.00


                                   8 000.00


                                   6 000.00


                                   4 000.00


                                   2 000.00


                                      0.00
                                              2000

                                                     2005

                                                            2010

                                                                    2015

                                                                               2020

                                                                                           2025

                                                                                                      2030

                                                                                                                  2035

                                                                                                                          2040

                                                                                                                                 2045

                                                                                                                                         2050

                                                                                                                                                2055

                                                                                                                                                       2060

                                                                                                                                                              2065

                                                                                                                                                                     2070

                                                                                                                                                                            2075

                                                                                                                                                                                   2080

                                                                                                                                                                                          2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2100
                                                                                                                                        Year
   r i'
S e ge s Office PII I, file: D:\I IASA2005\Mi norities \result s\[ charts _OK_2100_ok_new2_2.x ls] ,01-Mar -05   11:05
                                                                            Mixed populations
                                                                                                                         Uk,Black,Both Sexes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Fra cti les
                                  16 000.00


                                  14 000.00
   Total population (thousands)




                                  12 000.00


                                  10 000.00


                                   8 000.00


                                   6 000.00


                                   4 000.00


                                   2 000.00


                                      0.00
                                              2000

                                                     2005

                                                            2010

                                                                    2015

                                                                               2020

                                                                                           2025

                                                                                                      2030

                                                                                                                  2035

                                                                                                                          2040

                                                                                                                                 2045

                                                                                                                                         2050

                                                                                                                                                2055

                                                                                                                                                       2060

                                                                                                                                                              2065

                                                                                                                                                                     2070

                                                                                                                                                                            2075

                                                                                                                                                                                   2080

                                                                                                                                                                                          2085

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2100
                                                                                                                                        Year
   r i'
S e ge s Office PII I, file: D:\I IASA2005\Mi norities \result s\[ charts _OK_2100_ok_new2_2.x ls] ,01-Mar -05   11:05
                   Mixed populations as a proportion of the
                            total UK population
                                                                                                                    Uk,Mixed,Both Sexes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Fra cti les
                  0.45

                  0.40

                  0.35

                  0.30
     Proportion




                  0.25

                  0.20

                  0.15

                  0.10

                  0.05

                  0.00
                         2000

                                   2005

                                              2010

                                                          2015

                                                                      2020

                                                                                  2025

                                                                                             2030

                                                                                                         2035

                                                                                                                     2040

                                                                                                                            2045

                                                                                                                                    2050

                                                                                                                                           2055

                                                                                                                                                  2060

                                                                                                                                                         2065

                                                                                                                                                                2070

                                                                                                                                                                       2075

                                                                                                                                                                              2080

                                                                                                                                                                                     2085

                                                                                                                                                                                            2090

                                                                                                                                                                                                   2095

                                                                                                                                                                                                          2100
                                                                                                                                   Year
   r i'        e            :
S e ge s Offi c PI II, fil e D:\I IASA2005\M inorities \resul ts\[ c                           l.x
                                                                    hart s_OK_2100_ok_new2_2_de ls] ,01-Mar -05   13:22
                      Comparison of results of European
                         foreign-origin projections
                Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,
                            selected countries, as percent of total population.
          35
                  Germany medium variant
                  USA medium variant (excludes black population)
                  Netherlands base scenario
          30
                  Denmark 2002- based medium variant
                  Sweden foreign background 2004 based
                  Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.
          25
percent




          20



          15



          10



           5
               2000       2005        2010        2015        2020      2025   2030   2035   2040   2045   2050
 European projections with and without
              migration
     Proportion foreign: standard projections and zero-migration projections

35
         Germany
         Germany zero migration
30
         Denmark
         Denmark zero immigation
25       Austria
         Austria zero immigration

20



15



10



 5
      2000    2005    2010     2015   2020   2025   2030   2035   2040   2045   2050
 A third demographic transition?
• First demographic transition: change in vital rates
  (eventually all societies?)
• Second demographic transition: change in living
  arrangements, family forms (so far [some]
  developed societies only).
• Third demographic transition?: change in
  population composition itself: new diversity or
  even replacement through immigration and
  differential fertility.
      Transformations of ethnic
       population composition
• Populations with sub-replacement fertility
  augmented by immigration must eventually be
  replaced by immigrant-origin population.
• Almost all ‘Western’ countries have sub-
  replacement TFR and positive immigration.
• In 2000 foreign origin/ethnic populations 8% -
  18% of total; projected to 20%-30+% in 2050,
  possible equality/ majority by 2100.
         Really a ‘transition’?
• Diversity of origins already established,
  displacement of ‘majority’ group uncertain.
• Unlike 1st and (?) 2nd D.T., depends much on
  public policy on immigration, multiculturalism,
  human rights (and democratic consent?).
• Significance for social and political change:
  segregation, religion, language, law, foreign
  policy.
• Divided society or new synthesis - prevalence of
  inter-ethnic unions crucial.

				
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