Supply_ Supply_ Supply and Demand

					                                 CERI 2011 Natural Gas Conference
                       Supply, Supply, Supply and Demand
  February 28-March 1, 2011 • Calgary TELUS Convention Centre • Calgary, Alberta

As world economies struggle to recover, and financial analysts still cannot agree whether recovery is at hand or a double-dip
recession is more likely, the North American gas industry has woken to an entirely different situation. Only two short years
ago, many asked the question: “Is the game changing”; now the industry understands that “this is an entirely new game”.
Conventional resources are in decline – not only because of the difficulty maintaining gas delivery levels in the face of natural
declines, but also because of the movement of capital and equipment to the next “gold rush” locations, the shale gas plays.
Companies are now acquiring significant land positions in shale areas; where they hope to reduce supply costs and gain
market presence by applying new manufacturing techniques and technology advancements. North America has moved into a
gas supply bubble position, something not seen since the 1970s. If in fact the shale gold rush has begun but demand
recovery remains sluggish, then the North American gas market could remain in a supply surplus position for many years to
come. Is shale gas a good thing?


Monday, February 28, 2011
7:00 – 8:00 am
Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:00 am
Introductory Remarks by Conference Co-chair

8:10 – 8:40 am
OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Alberta Government’s View on Policy Shifts That Will Affect the Gas Industry
Alberta is faced with a unique challenge with respect to the natural gas industry. Conventional gas developments are
perceived to be uneconomic at market prices below the $5/mcf range. The leading contributors to this situation are the basis
differentials between markets, the heated Alberta job market, input costs, regulation costs, fragmented land positions,
environmental concerns, and the difficulty in attracting investment.

What is at risk if this situation continues - economic growth, investment opportunities, employment, and government resource
revenues? Governments and regulators can assist in dealing with some of these issues.


Session 1 (8:45 – 10:15 am)
Gas Supply by Location
Producers are still developing established reserves, the rigs are still drilling, and the gas is still flowing, but for how long is
unknown. Competition drives the gas industry, and to grasp the economics we need to understand location related variables
such as drilling costs, land access, royalties, capital, and rig availability.
Alberta Conventional
Defining the metrics that make the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin conventional gas plays economic again. Examining the
Alberta Shallow Gas, Alberta Deep Basin, Alberta Mannville CBM resources, and the Alberta Plains!

Texas Conventional
Texas still produces 30 percent of the US gas supply, assisted by the Barnett shale which is now considered a conventional
shale gas development. What metrics exist that makes Texas an attractive location for many companies?

West Virginia
West Virginia produces less than 2 percent of the US gas supply but the Marcellus has the potential to make the state one of
the leading suppliers. What metrics are attracting money and resources to this location?
10:15 – 10:45 am
Break


Session 2 (10:45 am – 11:45 am)
Next Generation of Gas Supply
Canada’s Horn River, Montney, Utica, and possibly the Alberta Shales are contenders in size and potential, but what makes
one resource economically different from another: land access, costs, royalties, competition, or location? What is different
when comparing the US and Canadian shale gas plays and where does LNG fit into the mix?
Canada
Industry experts have suggested that Horn River has the potential to deliver six billion cubic feet per day to the marketplace.
What needs to happen for this to come to reality?

United States
Driven by lower production costs, the US shale gas deposits are poised to grow to a production potential of 35 billion cubic
feet per day by 2020. Can this challenge be met?

11:45 am – 12:15 pm
Regulatory Changes to Unconventional Gas


12:15 – 1:30 pm
Luncheon
Session 3 (1:30 – 3:00 pm)
The “Other” Players in the North American Gas Game!
The northern gas suppliers in Alaska and Canada’s Northwest Territories have been waiting for pipeline access to southern
markets, and the wait has been a long one. Behind pipe production, potential from these two sources totals close to 7 billion
cubic feet per day and the undiscovered potential is equally impressive.

Is this a race to be first in the market or has the opportunity passed with a risky looking future over the next decade? On a
similar note, what presence could LNG have in North America and what about emerging technologies? Is the game too
crowded?

Mackenzie Valley Pipeline
Will Canada’s northern resources finally be connected to market or is the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline just a pipe dream?

Coal Gasification
Coal remains a significant energy resource for North America. Can in-situ technologies renew the image of coal as an energy
source?

Gas Hydrates
Japan, driven by security of supply issues, is moving forward with gas hydrate developments. Is it possible that this resource,
which has always been viewed as 20 years away, will alter the gas dynamics again?

3:00 – 3:30 pm
Break


Session 4 (3:30 – 5:00 pm)
Conventional and Unconventional Demand
Natural gas is the cleanest of the hydrocarbon fuels. At a time when international concerns are focused on reducing
greenhouse gases and when gas market prices are driven downward by abundant supply, new demands for natural gas may
emerge.

Natural Gas Use in Future Markets
Gas-fired turbines are a hot, and possibly scarce, commodity in the United States as a result of greenhouse gas concerns and
low market prices. The Ontario Government has pulled back one of the proposed gas-fired generators for the province. The
competition in the electricity market between natural gas, wind/solar and renewables could affect the future gas demand,
positively or negatively. What could the eastern Canadian future gas demand look like?
Natural Gas and Its Role in Integrated Community Energy Systems
As the industry continues its pursuit of new gas supplies and reducing emissions, is the environment still at the forefront of
politicians’ and citizens’ concerns? We have a unique opportunity to plan for the future and optimize the use of natural gas for
the next generations in our communities.

How Can Natural Gas as a Fuel Play into the Canadian Heavy Duty Vehicle Market?
Changing to CNG or LNG fuels can help the gas industry and the environment – a winning combination, but is it feasible?

5:00 – 6:15 pm
RECEPTION


Tuesday, March 1, 2011
7:00 – 8:00 am
Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:00 am
Introductory Remarks by Conference Co-chair

8:10 – 8:40 am
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Natural Gas Possibilities for Canada: The Impact of Unconventional Natural Gas
Session 5 (8:45 – 10:15 am)
Looking into the Crystal Ball
Industry dynamics are changing before our very eyes. Conventional gas is in decline but unconventional gas is taking its
place. The old adage “the more things change, the more they stay the same” could very well apply to areas such as coal-fired
generation, where CCS and other technological advancements may turn this carbon-rich energy source of the past into a
compelling future option.
An Independent Review of CCS Technology

Return of Coal
Does coal still compete in the energy game in an environment of greener technologies?

Global and North American Demand

10:15 – 10:45 am
Break


Session 6 (10:45 am – 12:15 pm)
The Industry Image
“The new game” for natural gas is not just the same players, doing the same things in different locations. This game has a
new set of sideline observers that focus on the environmental, financial and business practices. Environmental groups are now
keenly focused on the energy industry. Local populations are now questioning truck activity, noise and the quality of their
drinking water. School children are now asking why we are damaging the environment. How does industry separate fact from
fiction?


Environment
Water, chemicals and sand: Perceptions on shale gas developments in North America.

Regulatory and Environmental Matters from a Legal Perspective


Reclamations
In western Canada there has been in excess of a half-million wells drilled over that past 50 years. Today, less than 200,000
wells remain. The other wells have been abandoned and the land returned to its natural state. Is this enough or is more
needed?
12:15 – 1:30 pm
Luncheon
Session 7 (1:30 – 3:00 pm)
Executive Panel Discussion
Natural gas supply appears to be slipping south of the border. What do we do now????


Confirmed Participants Include:

James D. Brown; Executive Director, Advisory Services     Ernst & Young LLP
Mike Dawson; President      Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas
Dr. Duke du Plessis; Senior Advisor, Energy Technologies        Alberta Innovates – Energy and Environment Solutions
Dr. Carmen Dybwad; Chief Executive Officer      IPAC-CO2 Research Inc.
Michael Ekelund; Assistant Deputy Minister, Strategic Initiatives Division   Alberta Department of Energy
John Gorman; Vice President      Halliburton Canada
Dr. Brad J. Hayes; President    Petrel Robertson Consulting Ltd.
Dr. Robert Huebert; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Associate Director, Centre for Military and
Strategic Studies University of Calgary
Thomas Huffaker; Vice President, Policy and Environment         Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Edward Kallio; Director, Gas Consulting     Ziff Energy Group
Dan McFadyen; Chairman       Energy Resources Conservation Board
Alicia Milner; President   Canadian Natural Gas Vehicle Alliance
Barry Munro; Managing Partner, Calgary       Ernst & Young LLP
Richard Neufeld; Q.C., LL.B.; Partner     Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP
Robert J. Reid; President ·Mackenzie Valley Aboriginal Pipeline LP
Thomas Sherman; Manager, Production Group          BENTEK Energy, LLC
R.W. (Bob) Taylor; Founding Partner       Energy Futures Network
Don Wharton; Vice President, Sustainable Development       TransAlta Corporation
David L. Yager; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer     HSE Integrated Ltd.

				
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