Presentation - Attracting and retaining students the face of

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					Attracting and retaining students the face of
labour market and demographic challenges




               NATVAC Guelph, Ontario
                   October 2007
Nationally the most dramatic population change is
     the increase is for those age 65 or older
                                       To drive labour force growth need
20,000                                 more highly educated population
18,000
16,000                    18 to 24
14,000                    under 18
12,000                    65 plus
10,000                    25 to 59
 8,000
 6,000
 4,000
 2,000
     0
    06

          10

                14




                                              34

                                                    38

                                                          42



                                                                      50
                      18

                            22

                                  26

                                        30




                                                                46



                                                                            54
                     20

                           20

                                 20

                                       20




                                                               20



                                                                           20
  20

         20

               20




                                             20

                                                   20

                                                         20



                                                                     20
    The world leaders have higher university
        participation rates than Canada
            Turkey
            Mexico
       Switzerland
           Belgium
      New Zealand
            Austria
   Slovak Republic
          Germany
           Sweden
           Canada
   United Kingdom                                                                   18-21
          Hungary
          Australia
            France
   Czech Republic                                                                   4-year age
            Poland                                                                  cohort
            Iceland
     United States
              Spain
           Norway
          Portugal
       Netherlands
            Finland
          Denmark
            Greece
               Italy
Korea (Republic of)
                                               OECD databases 2001 -- Based on full-time enrolment
                   0%      5%     10%      15%       20%        25%        30%        35%        40%
  * Four-year age cohort with highest enrolment Source: AUCC using
 OECD database 2006 – 2003-04 data
Trends: Factors drivers change nationally

•   Demography                     •   Mildly positive
•   Parental education             •   Strong positive
•   Family income                  •   Potential opportunity
•   Returns: Income premium        •   Positive
•   Costs: Tuition Fees            •   Negligible
•   Student Aid: (CMSF renewal)    •   Positive
•   International student demand   •   Positive
•   Quality                        •   Positive–LT
•   Graduate enrolment             •   Strong positive
•   Informational                  •   Positive
•   Labour markets                 •   Strong positive
•   Government investment          •   Critical
    Demography will play a role in driving
            future enrolment
• Different population trends nationally and
  internationally are already raising alarm bells

• There is an understandable concern regarding
  of the echo BUST …
  – But we need to put population trends in context
  – Look back to plan ahead
 What happened to enrolments during the
           initial baby BUST
160
150
                                     Full-time enrolment
140
                                         age 18 to 21
130
120
110
100
 90
 80
                                                 Canadian Population age 18 to 21
 70
 60
  72

        74

              76

                    78

                          80

                                82

                                      84

                                            86

                                                  88



                                                              92
                                                        90



                                                                    94

                                                                          96

                                                                                98
       19

             19

                   19

                         19

                               19

                                     19

                                           19

                                                 19
19




                                                       19



                                                                   19

                                                                         19

                                                                               19
                                                             19
   Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time
   bachelor's students aged 18 to 21 grew strongly
      despite population declines in that cohort
        B.C. - C.-B.
       ALTA. - ALB.
                                                           Bachelor's
                                                           enrolment
             SASK.
              MAN.
                                                           Population

              ONT.
         QUE. - QC
        N.B. - N.-B.
        N.S. - N.-E.
    P.E.I. - I.-P.-E.
       NFLD - T.-N.
           Canada

-30%       -15%         0%        15%         30%    45%   60%     75%

 Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates
  Growing participation (and retention) is driving
   enrolment increases even in provinces with
       declining population (2000 to 2005)
    B.C. - C.-B.
  ALTA. - ALB.
          SASK.
           MAN.
           ONT.
       QUE. - QC
    N.B. - N.-B.
    N.S. - N.-E.
 P.E.I. - I.-P.-E.
  NFLD - T.-N.
         Canada

-15%                 0%         15%             30%             45%        60%
                          enrolment 19 to 22 in Ontario
                          Population age 18 to 21
                          Full-time undergraduate enrolment age 18 to 21

Source: AUCC enrolment estimates 2000 to 2005
However, in fall 2006 universities in all four
Atlantic provinces experienced declines in
    full-time undergraduate enrolment
       B.C. - C.-B.
      ALTA. - ALB.
             SASK.
              MAN.
              ONT.
          QUE. - QC
                                         GRADUATE
        N.B. - N.-B.
                                         UNDERGRADUATE
         N.S. - N.-E.
      P.E.I. - I.-P.-E.
                                                PEI up
       NFLD - T.-N.                           almost 80%
          Canada

-6%       -4%      -2%    0%   2%   4%   6%    8%      10%
        Population growth will continue to drive enrolment
         demand over the coming decade, but not in the
                      subsequent decade

             2006 to 2026
                                                                            35 to 39
                                                                            30 to 34
             2006 to 2021                                                   25 to 29
                                                                            22 to 24
             2006 to 2016                                                   18 to 21


                                                      Half of students are 18 to 21, one
             2006 to 2011                             quarter are 22 to 24, 13% are 25
                                                      to 29 and the rest are 30 or older


-10%          -5%            0%             5%            10%          15%             20%
 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada
      The impact of population changes on
     aggregate full-time university enrolment
      will be minimal over the next 30 years
900,000
                                     Peak in 2013 3.5% higher
800,000
            Assuming constant 2006                                All ages
700,000
             participation rates …                                18 to 21
                                         2026 low
600,000                                                           22 to 24
                                       point … 3.9%
500,000                                    lower                  25 to 29
                                                                 30 plus
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
     0
        6        0       4       8        2         6        0      4
     200      201     201     201      202       202      203    203
                         Of course population change will have
                          different impacts across Canada …
                        120                                                     CANADA

                                                                                Que. - Qc
                        110
.




                                                                                Ont.
age 18 to 21 2006=100




                                                                                Alta. - Alb.
                        100
                                                                                B.C. - C.-B.

                                                                                Man.
                         90
                                                                                N.L. - T.-N.-L.

                         80        Declines in the
                                                                                P.E.I. - Î.-P.-É.

                                 smallest provinces                             N.S. - N.-É.
                                  are not only deep
                         70                                                     N.B. - N.-B.
                                  but appear to be
                                     permanent                                  Sask.
                         60
                             6   8   0   2   4   6   8   0   2   4    6
                         2 00 200 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202
                        Source: Statistics Canada 2006 population projections
  The distributional impacts generate very
  different growth prospects for enrolment
   growth in different parts of the country
   B.C. - C.-B.                  Four largest provinces account for
    Alta. - Alb.                  85% of 18 to 21 year-olds … and
                                         only Ontario grows
          Sask.
          Man.
           Ont.
     Que. - Qc
   N.B. - N.-B.
                                 Universities in several provinces
   N.S. - N.-É.                  will need to increase participation
P.E.I. - Î.-P.-É.        2016        rates significantly to offset
                         2006      expected population declines
N.L. - T.-N.-L.

                    0%     10%   20%         30%         40%           50%
Even within Ontario the demographic trends in
       different regions in vary widely
 130        growth is
          centered in the
 120           GTA

                                       GTA
 110
                                       Central
 100                                   East
                                       Soutwest
  90                                   Northeast
                                       Northwest
  80
                                       Ontario
  70

  60
     07
     09

     11




     17

     19

     21
     23

     25
     27

     29
     31
     13

     15
  20
  20

  20




  20

  20

  20
  20

  20
  20

  20
  20
  20

  20




 Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance
Population declines in some regions are significant but
universities confronting the biggest challenges recruit a
lot of students from the GTA and other parts of Ontario
  Northwest               Laurentian attracts 25% of high school students
                          from GTA; 33% locally
                          Nipissing: 30% from GTA; 17% local
   Northeast              Lakehead: 20% from GTA; 35% local

  Southwest
                               Local outreach will be an important driver,
                               but so too is outreach into the GTA
        East
                                    Several universities in N.S., N.B. and Qc. attract
     Central                       significant numbers of students from Ontario, but
                                       intra-provincial mobility just as important

        GTA

               0%   10%      20%       30%           40%          50%          60%
                                    2007      2031
              Population is clearly not the only driver of
              enrolment growth –participation is a much
                220
                    more important driver of change     30%
                      200                                                                                                   28%
                      180                                                                                                   26%
                      160                                                                                                   24%
                      140                                                                                                   22%
18 to 21 age cohort
 Index 1981 = 100




                      120                                                                                                   20%
                      100                                                                                                   18%
                      80                                                                                                    16%
                                                                                       Each successive
                      60                                                           Echo Boom – Echo Bust                    14%
                      40                                                            will be smaller than its                12%
                                                                                          predecessor
                      20                                                                                                    10%
                       0                                                                                                    8%
                         76 980 984 988 992 996 000 004 008 012 016 020 024 028 032 036 040
                       19   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

                            population 18 to 21                                Enrolment 18 to 21
                            Enrolment with constant participation after 2006   Historical participation rates
                            Constant particpation after 2006                   Participation to drive contant enrolment after 2011
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates
      To maintain current enrolment in Nova
      Scotia participation rates would need to
        increase strongly beginning in 2011
50%       18 to 21
45%       22 to 24
40%       25 to 29
                                       With no participation
35%       30 to 34                         growth, 68,300
                          Not much      students, 6,500 (9%)
30%                        change      fewer than in 2016 or
25%                         in next      the same as 2001
                          five years
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
  92
  94
  96
  98
  00
  02
  04
  06
  08
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
19
19


20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19




19
         To maintain current enrolment in
      Saskatchewan participation rates would
        need to increase beginning in 2008
50%       18 to 21                   With no participation
          22 to 24                   growth, 3,600 fewer
                                     students in 2016 …
40%       25 to 29                   Not accounting for
                     Some growth     growth in Aboriginal
          30 to 34    In youngest        population
                         cohorts
30%                    over next
                        five years

20%


10%


0%
  92

  95

  98

  01

  04

  07

  10

  13

  16

  19

  22

  25

  28
19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
  To maintain current enrolment in British
  Columbia participation rates would need
      to increases beginning in 2011
20%        18 to 21          Small     With no participation
                            change     growth, 3,000 fewer
18%        22 to 24       from 2012   students in 2016 same
           25 to 29         to 2021          as 2003
16%
14%        30 to 34

12%
       these increases
10%   would drive >10%
      enrolment growth
8%
            By 2016
6%    15% PR in 18-21
4%    10.6%pr age 22-24

2%
0%
  92

  95

  98

  01

  04

  07

  10

  13

  16

  19

  22

  25

  28
20



20

20
19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20



20




20
Factors driving rising participation rates


1. The influence of parents …

2. Family income …

3. Income premiums …
   The growing educational attainment of
“parents” should push up youth participation
       Statistics Canada studies
 25%
          shows this is more
        important that income
 20%


 15%


 10%


 5%


 0%
                                    45-54 years

              1976    1981   1986    1991   1996   2001   2006 LFS
 Over the coming decade the proportion of adults 45 to 54
 with university degrees will be driven up because of the
 recent increases in degree completion of those 35 to 44

30%            This kind of growth expected
                in the 45 to 54 cohort in the
25%                    coming decade

20%

                                                                     35 to 44
15%
                                                                     45 to 54

10%

5%

0%
   90


          92


                   94


                          96


                                 98


                                         00


                                                  02


                                                         04


                                                                06
                 19


                        19


                               19




                                                       20


                                                              20
 19


        19




                                       20


                                                20
Growing number of adults with university
degrees and certificates in all provinces
  … but the range remains quite wide
   B.C. - C.-B.
    Alta. - Alb.
         Sask.
         Man.
          Ont.
     Que. - Qc
   N.B. - N.-B.
   N.S. - N.-É.
P.E.I. - Î.-P.-É.
                                                                        1981
N.L. - T.-N.-L.                                                         2001
       Canada

                    0%       5%         10%          15%          20%     25%
Sources: Census Adults with degree or certificates age 45 to 54
                             Guelph (35550) 00001

                         Whitehorse (60990) 00010

                         Saskatoon (47725) 00000

                      Charlottetown (11105) 00000

British Columbia - Colombie-Britannique (59) 20000

                           Camrose (48833) 00000

                           Moncton (13305) 00001

                           Red Deer (48830) 00001

                         Saint John (13310) 00000
                                                                            One of the tools
            St. Catharines - Niagara (35539) 00000                           that enrolment
             Chicoutimi - Jonquière (24408) 00000                           planners use in
                         Cranbrook (59905) 00001                                identifying
                          Brockville (35512) 00001                         opportunities and
                       Cape Breton (12225) 00000                           challenges in their
                      Williams Lake (59950) 00001                              recruitment
                           Timmins (35586) 00000
                                                                                 strategies
                      New Glasgow (12220) 00000

                             Granby (24450) 00000                                     45-54 years
                      Baie-Comeau (24406) 00000

                 Dolbeau-Mistassini (24411) 00000

                      Labrador City (10025) 00000

                               Canada (01) 20000
                                                     0%   5%   10%   15%     20%      25%           30%
 While a greater proportion of youth from high income
 families attend university, financial constraints do not
   account for a major portion of the participation gap

60%
             Any university participation by age 22
50%
          Closing some of the gap
        represents an opportunity to
40%       grow participation further

30%

20%

10%

0%
       1st Quartile        2nd Quartile   3rd Quartile   4th Quartile

      Source: Statistics Canada
Need to determine
potential in these
      pools




     Closing some of the gap by income and by
         grade qualification provides some
      opportunities – but they could be costly
The level of participation of high
school grads in Atlantic Canada
 provides less room for further
growth … potential opportunities
Even bigger gaps by gender
Students from low income backgrounds are less likely to take
tests, pass those they do take or complete secondary school

 100%
                                           Low        Low-middle   Middle   High
  90%
  80%
  70%
  60%
  50%
  40%
  30%
  20%
  10%
   0%
             Pass rate on a               Pass rate                High School
             language test             compared to all 18          completion
                                          year-olds
        Source: Institute for Research in Public Policy
         In 2001, university graduates earned far
                      higher salaries

        University
         degree

       Some post
       secondary                                                  55-59 years
                                                                  45-49 years
 Trades certificate                                               35-39 years
   or diploma                                                     25-29 years


      Grades 9-13


  Less than grade
         9

                      $0   $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

                                                Average annual income
Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada, Census 2001
                            The earning premium for completing a university
                          degree was relatively constant at close to 50 percent
                                        between 1997 and 2006
                             $1,100          University degree
                                             No PSE
Average weekly earnings




                             $1,000          PSE certificate

                               $900

                               $800

                               $700

                               $600

                               $500

                               $400
                                        1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


                           Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
   Over the six-year period 1999 to 2004, university
   graduates were far less likely to experience any
     period or persistent periods of low income

                                              University degree
  3 or more
    years
                                              Non-university with
                                             certificate or diploma

                                              Some postsecondary
1 or 2 years                                 without degree, certificate
                                             or diploma
                                              Graduated high school


                                              Less than high school
    0 years




               0   20   40   60   80   100
Visa students and immigration
                        Canadian universities have been attracting
                      increasing numbers of visa students over the
                                      last decade
                      80,000
                      70,000          CanadaTotal
                                      Bachelor's
Full-time enrolment




                      60,000
                      50,000          Graduate
                      40,000
                      30,000
                      20,000
                      10,000
                           0




                               e
                             76
                             78
                             80
                             82
                             84
                             86
                             88
                             90
                             92
                             94
                             96
                             98
                             00
                             02
                             04
                            06
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          19
                          20
                          20
                          20
                         20
                          Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates
               That demand should continue to grow
            according to forecasts of total global demand
                  for international student places
            3,500

            3,000

            2,500                                                 Europe
Thousands




            2,000                                                 Americas
                                                                  Asia, Oceana
            1,500                                                 Middle East
            1,000                                                 Africa

              500

               0
                        2005          2010          2015   2020
                    Source: IDP Education Pty Ltd
      China's higher-education system has
       ballooned during the past decade
• Public institutions doubled
   –    1,080 in 1994 to 1,980 in 2004
• Private universities up 11-fold
   –    43 in 2000 475 in 2004.
• Enrolment in public and private universities/colleges up 5-fold
   –    3.4 million in 1998 to 16 million today
• Enrolment in private universities rose even faster
   –    260,000 in 2000 to 1.4 million in 2004
• From 2000 to 2004 campus space tripled
   –    5.1 to 15.82 billion square feet.
             » As reported in the Chronicle of Higher Education May 19, 2006



• Recruiting students and highly qualified immigrants
  from China will continue to get more difficult
                                 Over half of adult immigrants have a
                                           university degree
                           50%
                                  Opportunity to augment the
                           45%      qualifications of new
proportion with a degree




                           40%       immigrants – FCR

                           35%     close to 100,000 per year

                           30%
                           25%
                           20%
                           15%
                           10%
                           5%
                           0%
                                 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                                                               46% including those
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada                     who are 15 to 21
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pub/facts2004/permanent/23.html
Ontario attracts the large numbers of recent immigrants
driving further increases in demand for university from
   the children of these highly educated immigrants

 45,000
                                                    Nova Scotia
 40,000

 35,000                                             Other Atlantic
                        Ontario 144,500             provinces*
 30,000
                            in 2005                 Manitoba
 25,000
                                                    Saskatchewan
 20,000

 15,000                                             Alberta
 10,000
                                                    British Columbia
  5,000
                                                    Quebéc
     0
          2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005
 Population change within the 19 to 22
 age cohort varies across the E.U. and
North America over the next two decades
change in population age 19 to 22


                                    35%
                                                                   2006 to 2016
                                    25%                            2016 to 2026
                                    15%                            2006 to 2026

                                     5%

                                    -5%

                                    -15%
                                                 a   y    e             y   s           n
                                    -25%     n ad man ranc land    I
                                                                                 d
                                                                    tal land nlan ede dom
                                           Ca Ger      F   Ire         he
                                                                          r Fi   Sw King
                                                                     t
                                    -35%                          Ne               ite
                                                                                      d
                                                                                Un
 Targeting immigration to the developing
 nations creates a new set of challenges
• Mexico, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Iraq are among
  the few countries with high birth rates.
   – Many E.U. nations confronting large delines
   – Even China will have a baby bust

• Uneven education systems make selection of qualified
  students or immigrants more difficult and costly

• Language training, cultural adjustments make the
  integration into either Canadian universities or the
  economy more difficult
  Trends by country of origin of visa students in
Canada varies widely over time … risk assessment?
                      9,000
                                               China                                                           14,577
                      8,000                    United States
                                               France
                      7,000
                                               India
Full-time enrolment




                      6,000
                                               Malaysia
                      5,000

                      4,000

                      3,000

                      2,000

                      1,000

                         0
                           76

                                   78

                                          80

                                                 82

                                                         84

                                                                86

                                                                       88

                                                                              90

                                                                                     92

                                                                                            94

                                                                                                   96

                                                                                                          98

                                                                                                                 00

                                                                                                                        02

                                                                                                                               04
                         19

                                 19

                                        19

                                               19

                                                       19

                                                              19

                                                                     19

                                                                            19

                                                                                   19

                                                                                          19

                                                                                                 19

                                                                                                        19

                                                                                                               20

                                                                                                                      20

                                                                                                                             20
                              Source: Statistics Canada
                                Quality
•   Important to develop practices that enhance quality and better ways to
    communicate the impact of those changes
     – Make sure that the knowledge generated from research into teaching is
       applied in the classroom …
     – Cohorting, first-year and senior year courses
     – PBL inquiry based learning
     – International study abroad experiences
     – Research experiences
     – Experiential learning

•   Using NSSE to design interventions and monitor the impacts of change
•   Building on STLHE research
•   Making more extensive use of pilots and experiments

•   Quality enhancements will be critical in driving economic growth
    when the population really does begin to constrain labour market
    growth (as this week’s Census release highlighted)
Active and Collaborative Learning

      Ontario    Canada (without Ontario)   All US institutions       Top 10%

100




 75

                               58.7                                             58.6
                                                                       50.4
 50                                                  42.8
                        41.3                                  42.3
          34.5   34.4


 25




  0
                  First-Year                                      Seniors
      Student-Faculty Interaction

      Ontario    Canada (without Ontario)   All US institutions       Top 10%

100




 75

                                                                                56.9

 50
                               42.0                                    41.3
                        32.1                         31.2     29.3
          22.1   20.3
 25




  0
                  First-Year                                      Seniors
Faculty numbers have expanded by 21 percent between
 1998 and 2006 but still trail well behind the 37 percent
  growth in full-time enrolment over the same period
                  225
                  200
                  175   Full-time faculty
                        Full-time students
                  150
 Index 1976=100




                  125
                  100
                  75
                  50
                  25
                   0




                      e
                     55
                     58
                     61
                     64
                     67

                     70
                     73
                     76
                     79

                     82
                     85
                     88
                     91

                     94
                     97
                     00
                     03
                    06
                   19


                   19




                   19


                   19

                   19


                   19
                   19


                   19


                   19

                   19


                   19




                   19


                   19

                   19
                   19
                   20
                   20
                  20
     Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates
  Meeting student demand AND labour
            market demand

• The number one reason students enroll is
  to enhance their career prospects

• There is lots of evidence from our labour
  markets that student demand for university
  is matched by employers demand for
  graduates
                  Labour market growth is driven by those
                     with postsecondary qualifications
                7,000
                                                     High school or less
                6,000

                5,000
000s employed




                4,000

                3,000                  University degree
                                                                             PSE certificate
                2,000
                                                                            Trade certificate
                1,000

                   0
                      90


                              92


                                       94


                                                96


                                                          98


                                                                      00


                                                                              02


                                                                                      04


                                                                                              06
                   19


                           19


                                    19


                                             19


                                                       19


                                                                   20


                                                                           20


                                                                                   20


                                                                                           20
                   Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
       Many of the fastest growing occupations
            require university education
                                                                          Share with university degree
     Trades, transportation, manufacturing and clerical                   Job growth 1990 to 2006
                                Retail sales and services

                        Management and administrative

              Sales & service supervisors and specialists

                                 Teachers & professors

                         Health professions and services

                         Art, culture, recreation & sport

                                   Business and Finance

                            Natural and applied sciences

Judges, lawyers, psychologists ,social workers, ministers

                                  ALL OCCUPATIONS

                                                            0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

                Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2006
    In every province job growth has been
     driven by those who have completed
       college and university programs
                          British Columbia
  University degree
                                    Alberta
  College
                            Saskatchewan
  Trade
  HS or less                     Manitoba

                                    Ontario

                                    Quebec

                           New Brunswick

                              Nova Scotia

                      Prince Edward Island

                Newfoundland and Labrador

                                    Canada

-200%   -150%     -100%      -50%             0%   50%   100%   150%
              Education is the key to higher
                   employment rates
  Univ. degree - post graduate
      Univ. degree - bachelors
Univ. degree - below bachelors
  Community College, CEGEP
              Trade certificate
    Post-secondary certificate
        Some post-secondary
                      HS Grad
             Some secondary
                      0-8 year
                         Total

                              0%    20%     40%    60%     80%    100%
                            Employment to population ratios age 25 to 59
Replacement demand for those who will soon
   leave retire is also accelerating rapidly
        700
                                         Bachelor's
        600                              Graduate degrees
        500
                In 1990 just
        400       275,000
000's




                 graduates
        300     were 50 plus
                                                            By 2006 almost one
        200                                                 million were 50 plus
                                                             – close to a 4-fold
        100                                                       increase
          0
          90


                   92


                           94


                                    96


                                            98


                                                       00


                                                             02




                                                                            06
                                                                     04
                                                                   20
         19


                 19


                         19


                                  19


                                           19


                                                   20


                                                            20




                                                                           20
         Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada Labour
         Force Survey data
                   Graduate Students

• Ontario Strategy
      - rapid increase in graduate students by 2009
• Others are also proposing to follow similar strategy
   – University of Alberta from 1 in 5 to 1 in 3
   – B.C and Quebec also increasing graduate enrolment

• Demand from undergraduates should be growing
   – population in the older (graduate cohorts) increasing
   – growth in numbers completing undergraduate studies


• Canadian labour markets creating demand
   – National and international R&D efforts
   – Key to driving productivity
  The proportion of students in graduate study in
 many Canadian universities trails well behind most
     many peer public universities in the U.S.
                   Wisconsin-Madison
        Washington-Seattle Campus
                       Texas at Austin
                 Minnesota-Twin Cities
        Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
                                  UCLA
                               Berkeley
          University of Saskatchewan
      University of British Columbia
                  University of Calgary
                  University of Alberta
                University of Manitoba
      University of Western Ontario
                 University of Toronto
                    Queen's University
                  University of Ottawa
                   McMaster University
             Université de Sherbrooke
                       Université Laval
               Université de Montréal
                      McGill University
                  Dalhousie University
Memorial University of Newfoundland

                                      0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
                      Share of full-time students in graduate programs in 2003
            Canadian labour market is generating a
            growing demand for graduate degrees

        1,200

                     Full-time
        1,000
                     Part-time
         800
ooo's




         600

         400

         200

           0
              90
              91
              92
              93
              94
              95
              96
              97
              98
              99
              00
              01
              02
              03
              04
              05
              06
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           19
           20
           20
           20
           20
           20
           20
           20
  Immigration has been accounting for a growing
 share of new graduates, especially those who have
        earned master’s and PhD’s degrees
  150,000              Bachelor’s and 1st
                       professional degrees
                       awarded in Canada
  120,000
                 More domestic production required
    90,000       to meet labour market demands…
                                                          Immigrants with bachelor’s
                                                          and 1st professional degrees
    60,000
                       Graduate degrees
                       awarded in Canada
    30,000
                                                                       Immigrants with
          0                                                            graduate degrees




                                                                02


                                                                         04
           90


                    92


                             94


                                      96


                                               98


                                                      00




                                                                                 06
         19


                  19


                           19


                                     19


                                              19


                                                     20




                                                                      20
                                                             20




                                                                               20
Sources: AUCC using Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and

Citizenship and Immigration Canada
  Relative to the size of their population, there are
twice as many master’s degrees and one-third more
  PhD’s awarded annually in U.S. than in Canada

                       25

                       20
  Ratio U.S : Canada




                       15

                       10

                                                U.S. masters per Cdn degree
                       5
                                                U.S. PhD's per Cdn PhD
                                                Population 25-29 per Cdn
                       0
                          90

                          91

                          92

                          93

                          94

                          95

                          96

                          97

                          98

                          99

                          00

                          01

                          02

                          03
                       19
                       19

                       19

                       19

                       19

                       19

                       19



                       19

                       19

                       19

                       20

                       20

                       20

                       20
                        One of the factors that drives higher
                        productivity in the U.S. …Roger Martin
     Enrolment and participation challenges
•   Threats
               and opportunities
     – Demographic declines in some provinces will create a more competitive
       environment for domestic students
     – Strong labour demand in Western Canada creates short term challenges
     – Costs of graduate programs and supporting outreach are higher
•   International
         • Europe and even China becoming more competitive
         • UK, Australia and now the US creating more competition for international students
•   Opportunities
         • Labour market demand will drive domestic enrolment demand
         • Capitalize on links to U.S. market (echo boom in south and south-west)
         • Look to developing nations

•   Demand at the undergraduate level may undermine efforts to enhance
    quality, expand graduate enrolment and outreach activities
•   Quality
     – Eventually labour markets will shrink in relative terms (aging)
     – Improving the skills, talents and innovative capacity of graduates will be
       required to enhance labour productivity

         • drive economic growth and quality of life
Stable dependency ratios over the coming decade
 provide an opportunity to invest in education –
  waiting risks confronting stronger competition
1.9
1.8                                 Too much
            20 to 64               competition
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4   15 to 64
                       The next
1.3                    10 years
                       provides
                       the best
1.2
                       window to
1.1                      invest

1.0
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  03
  07
  11
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
   Figure 1.50: Nationally, full-time enrolment will
      continue to grow under any scenario that
        projects increased participation rates
1,000,000             Historical
                      Constant participation rate
 900,000              Low growth
 800,000              Trend growth
                      Faster participation growth for men
 700,000
 600,000
 500,000
 400,000
 300,000
 200,000
 100,000
        0
      19 2
      19 4
      19 6
      19 8
      19 0
      19 2
      19 4
      19 6
      19 8
      19 0
      19 2
      19 4
      19 6
      20 8
      20 0
      20 2
      20 4
      20 6
      20 8
      20 0
      20 2
      20 4
         16
         7
         7
         7
         7
         8
         8
         8
         8
         8
         9
         9
         9
         9
         9
         0
         0
         0
         0
         0
         1
         1
         1
      19




  Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

				
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