Docstoc

China Fishmeal Market Update

Document Sample
China Fishmeal Market Update Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                                        Presentation Outline

  China Fishmeal Market Update                                                                             • China Fishmeal Supply & Trading
                                                                                                           • China Fishmeal Demand (China’s Feed
                                   Wenpu Jin                                                               Industry)
                       IFFO China Project Manager                                                          • Other Hot Topics
                                  October 2009
                            InterContinental, Vienna




                                                                                                                 1994-2009* China Fishmeal Supply
                  2000-2009* China GDP Growth
                                                                                              2000
                  14
                                                                                              1800
                  12
                                                              11.6 11.9                       1600

                  10                         10   10.1 10.4                                   1400
                                       9.1                                9               9   1200
                   8       8.4   8.3                                                7.9
                                                                                              1000                                                                              domestic production
                   6                                                          6.1                                                                                               imported fishmeal
Growth rate (%)                                                                                800

                   4                                                                           600

                                                                                               400
                   2
                                                                                               200
                   0
                                                                                                0
                        2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009                   1994       1996   1998   2000       2002   2004   2006       2008
                                                                      Q1 Q2 Q3*




   2008 China Fishmeal Supply & Demand                                                                     2007-2009 China Monthly Fishmeal Import
                                                                                                     300


Total fishmeal consumption: 1.48 million MT
                                                                                                     250



Including:                                                                                           200

• Red fishmeal 1.17 million MT                                                                                                                                                            2007

              ,                                 )
(Peru 850 TT,Chile 230 TT, other countries 90 TT)
                                                                                                     150
                                                                                                                                                                                          2008
                                                                                                                                                                                          2009
• White fishmeal 140 TT                                                                              100


• Domestic fishmeal 130-170 TT
                                                                                                      50



                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                             1      2    3     4      5      6    7     8      9      10   11    12




                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
              Jan-Aug 2008 / 2009 Import                                         Jan-Aug 2008 / 2009 Import
                      Change in tonnes                                                Market Share by Origins
100,000
                                                                     70.0%

 80,000                                                              60.0%

                                                                     50.0%
 60,000
                                                                     40.0%
                                             Change in tonnes
 40,000                                                              30.0%                                                 Jan.-Aug. 2008
                                                                                                                           Jan.-Aug. 2009
                                                                     20.0%
 20,000
                                                                     10.0%

        0                                                             0.0%


-20,000




              Jan-Aug 2008 / 2009 Import                              More & more coming through containers
                        Change in share
 8.0%
                                                                       Big bulk:152 TT
                                                                       Container:1197 TT,accounting for more than 88%
 6.0%



 4.0%



 2.0%

                                                   Change in share

 0.0%



-2.0%



-4.0%



-6.0%




        Number of fishmeal importers decreased while                     2009 Fishmeal Price Fluctuation in China
           proportion of medium-sized increased
                                                                                   2009 China (Shanghai) Fishmeal Prices
                                                                                         (Peru FAQ 65 in RMB/MT)
                                                                      12000


                                                                      10000


                                                                       8000

                                                                       6000


                                                                       4000


                                                                       2000


                                                                             0




                                                                                                                                            2
         Huge fishmeal trading profits for 2009                                 Price Ratio of Fishmeal and Soymeal




                                                                                                                             NOW 2.8




2007-2009 China Weekly Fishmeal Stock at Ports                                          2006-2009 Fishmeal Off-take
                                                                                         from Major Ports in China
350000
                                                                           140000
300000
                                                                           120000
250000
                                                                           100000
                                                                  2009
200000                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                  2008      80000
                                                                                                                                       2007
150000                                                            2007
                                                                            60000                                                      2008
                                                                                                                                       2009
100000
                                                                            40000

 50000
                                                                            20000

     0
                                                                                0
         1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39                     1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12




                                                                                    Industrial Feed Production in 2008

     Current Status of the Feed                                           • Industrial feed production totaled 137 million MT, rising 10.8%
                                                                            on year, achieving growth for a consecutive four years.
         Industry in China                                                      Compound feed production reached 106 million MT, rising
                                                                                13.6% on year
                                                                                Concentrated feed production amounted to 25.31 million
                                                                                MT, up 1.6% on year.
                                                                                Premix production added up to 5.46 million MT, up 4.8% on
                                                                                year.



                                                                     17                                                                  18




                                                                                                                                              3
    2008 China Feed Production by Category                             2008 China Feed Production by Category
                                                                                              other feed, 2%               ruminnat
   Type of feed          Volume (million MT) Comparison to 2007        aqua feed, 10%                                      feed , 4%


      Pig feed                 45.77             Up 14.4%
                                                                                                                          poutry feed,
    Layer feed                 26.66              Up 5.9%
                                                                                                                             51%
    Broiler feed               42.12              Up 15%                 pig feed, 33%

     Aqua feed                 13.39               Up 1%
   Ruminant feed                5.71              Up 0.4%
    Other feed                  3.03             Up 18.1%
       Total                    137              Up 10.8%     19




 There are 5 provinces in China with annual feed                    • China’s feed production takes up 20% of global
 production over 8 million MT. Total production in these 5            feed production.
 provinces accounts for 43% of the country’s total volume.
                                                                    • Number of feed producers is decreasing (13,612
                                                                      in 2008, down by 11.5% from 2007).
               Province           Volume (million MT)
                                                                    • Feed production by the top five feed producers
            Guangdong                    16.46                        accounts for 20% of total feed output in China:
               Shandong                  15.89                         – New Hope (+ Liuhe)
                 Henan                    9.39                         – CP China
               Liaoning                   8.97                         – Tongwei
                 Hebei                    8.43                         – Wen’s Group
                                                                       – East Hope
                                                              21                                                                             22




     China Feed Production in 1st Half of 2009                      Feed Production by Category in 1st Half of 2009
                                                                                         Volume           Comparison to
• China’s feed production totaled 64.63 million MT in                  Type
                                                                                         (million MT)     2008
                                                                                                                                 Comments
  1st half of 2009, down 5.4% on year
                                                                     Pig feed               23.3               Up 1.8%              Stable

   – Compound feed production totaled 49.55 million MT,             Layer feed              11.23          Down 15.8%          Huge decrease
     down 6.4% on year.
   – concentrated feed reached 12.30 million MT, down               Broiler feed            18.5               Down 12%        Huge decrease
     2.8% on year.
   – Premix production amounted to 2.78 million MT, up               Aqua feed              7.85               Up 17.3%           Increase
     1.9% on year.
                                                                   Ruminant feed            2.15           Down 24.6%          Huge decrease

                                                              23    Other feed               1.6               Up 5.7%              Stable   24




                                                                                                                                                  4
        Reasons for Decline in Production                           Feed Development Trend for 2nd Half of 2009
  • Financial crisis and economic downturn                         • 2009 China Feed Industry
  • Poultry feed declines notably, 16% and 12% for                    –   1Q: gloomy situation
    layer feed and broiler feed respectively.                         –   2Q: improvement
  • Low pig farming profit margin and H1N1 (previously                –   3Q: adjustment
    called Swine Flu)                                                 –   4 Q: slow recovery
  • Melamine incident’s negative impact on cow
    farming and ruminant feed production.
                                                                   • Feed production is estimated to rise slightly in 2009,
                                                                     likely to total 140 million MT. --- Vice Chair of China Feed
                                                                     Industry Association
                                                                     ???
                                                              25                                                                26




 China’s feed production is to decline in 2009 ?!

                                                                                     Other Hot Topics




 2007-2009 China Monthly Fish oil Import                              2006-2008 China Fishmeal Usage by Sectors
16000
                                                                                          2006          2007            2008
14000                                                                Pig & Poultry         33%          46%             52%
12000                                                                     Shrimp           21%          20%             10%
10000                                                                 Freshwater
                                                                                           8%           13%             13%
                                                            2007          fish
8000
                                                            2008     Marine fish           10%           7%              6%
                                                            2009
6000
                                                                     Fur-bearing
                                                                                           6%            3%              3%
4000                                                                   animal

2000
                                                                           Eel             13%           5%              7%
                                                                          Turtle           5%            3%              6%
   0
         1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12                 Others           4%            3%              3%




                                                                                                                                     5
                                                        Pig Market                                                                                              2008-2009 China Live Pig Sales Prices
    •        Pig consumes half of the fishmeal in China                                                                                                                                                                                  (RMB/kg)
    •        Due to severe disease problems, supply was greatly hit, and
                                                                                                                                                               单位:元/千克
             pork price went sky-rocketing in 2007                                                                                          18.00
                                                                                                                                            17.00
    •        In 2008, The government took measures to encourage pig
                                                                                                                                            16.00
             farming: subsidy, insurance, futures market …
                                                                                                                                            15.00
    •        Market recovered during 2008                                                                                                   14.00
    •        Then supply became excessive …                                                                                                 13.00
                                                                                                                                            12.00
    •        Price dropped quickly, and the “swine flu” made it worse
                                                                                                                                            11.00
    •        Government’s purchase of pork for state reserve …                                                                              10.00
    •        Modern industrialized pig farming is the trend …                                                                                9.00




                                                                                                                                                    01-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                02-02-08
                                                                                                                                                                           03-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                      04-02-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                 05-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                            06-02-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       07-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   08-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              09-02-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    11-02-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12-02-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          01-02-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     02-02-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                03-02-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           04-02-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      05-02-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 06-02-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            07-02-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       08-02-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  09-02-09
    •        IFFO pig trial




                                                                                                                                                                           Demand from Aquaculture
             Scale Structure of China Pig Farming in 2008
                        3000-10000 10000-50000 50000 +
                                                                                                                                           • Feed production for sea water fish is about 500 TT;
                            7%          5%       1%                                                                                          some high quality feed with 30-35% fishmeal
                                                                                                                                             inclusion; it consumes 100-150 TT of FM
                                                                                                   1-49
                                  500-3000                                                          38%                                    • Freshwater fish feed consumes another 150 TT
                                     18%
                                                                                                                                           • Annual shrimp feed production is about 800-900 TT,
                                                                                                                                             consuming 200-250 TT of FM. In 2008, shrimp
                                        100-500
                                                                                                                                             consumption decreased a lot because of diseases. It’s
                                          18%                                     50-100                                                     very likely to recover in 2009.
                                                                                    13%

                                                                                                                                           • Eel and turtle consumed about 190 TT of FM in 2008.
                                                                                                                                             Unlikely to increase in the future.




             1989-2010* China Aquatic Products Production                                                                                  Fishmeal Inclusion Rate by Aquaculture Species
70000                                                                                                              0.3                              Species                                                                       2006 (lowest)                                                                            2005 (highest)
60000                                                                                                              0.25
                                                                                                                                                    Turtle                                                                                       70%                                                                                             75%
                                                                                                                                                               Eel                                                                            50-60%                                                                                  65%-70%
50000
                                                                                                                   0.2
                                                                                                                                                 Shrimp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              25-30%                                                                                  30%-35%
40000
                                                                                                                              Production
                                                                                                                                             (P. vannamei)
                                                                                                                   0.15
                                                                                                                              Increase
30000                                                                                                                                        Seawater fish                                                                                    25-30%                                                                                  30%-35%
                                                                                                                   0.1    Unit: 1,000                                                                                             North 8-12%
20000                                                                                                                        MT              Crucian Carp                                                                                                                                                                             15%-20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  South15-18%
                                                                                                                   0.05
10000
                                                                                                                                            Common Carp                                                                                       3-5%                                                                                    15%-20%
    0                                                                                                              0                                Tilapia                                                                                   2%-5%                                                                                   8%-15%
        89
              90
                   91
                        92
                              93
                                   94
                                        95
                                              96
                                                   97
                                                        98
                                                              99
                                                                   00
                                                                        01
                                                                              02
                                                                                   03
                                                                                        04
                                                                                              05
                                                                                                   06
                                                                                                              07
                                                                                                        20 008

                                                                                                               m




                                                                                                                                               Grass carp                                                                                     0-3%                                                                                       5%-8%
                                                                                                             ai
   19
             19
                  19
                       19
                             19
                                  19
                                       19
                                             19
                                                  19
                                                       19
                                                             19
                                                                  20
                                                                       20
                                                                             20
                                                                                  20
                                                                                       20
                                                                                             20
                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                       20
                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                          10




        Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6
JCI: Structure of fishmeal consumption is              Government Policy on Feed Safety
        expected to change in 2009               • # 118 - July 20, 2009, AQSIQ issued the No.118 document.
                                                 • # 79 - August 27, 2009, AQSIQ issued the No.79 document
                                                   Notice concerning Risk Grading, Inspection and Quarantine
                                                   Methods.
                                                 • AQSIQ works with counterpart government department in
                                                   fishmeal exporting countries, while MOA works with
                                                   individual companies for China License
                                                 • AQSIQ registration work has done for Peru, Chile and USA.
                                                   List of registered companies is available. Other countries will
                                                   follow.
                                                 • Tell your importers to put on Chinese labels.
                                                 • Will be variations at different ports during implementation.




                                                          Thank you very much!

                                                                Muchas gracias!
              Crisis
      Danger          Opportunity
                                                                  wjin@iffo.net
     John F. Kennedy: In a crisis, be aware of
    the danger, but recognize the opportunity.




                                                                                                                     7

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:37
posted:2/22/2011
language:English
pages:7