Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011 by GBIResearch

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									                      Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011

 Reference Code: GBICT0034ICR                                                                                  Publication Date: January 2011



                                   Strict Implementation of E-waste Management Laws in Europe is driving the E-waste
                                   Recovery Market in Europe
   In 2005 the e-waste             The e-waste recycling rates are highest in Europe among all other regions. In 2005 the e-waste
   recycling rate in the EU        recycling rate in the EU was approximately 30%, which increased to 39% in 2010. GBI Research
   was approximately 30%,          expects the e-waste recycling rates to go up to 40% in 2011. The reason for the high recycling rate
   which increased to 39% in       in Europe is the strict implementation of the e-waste management laws. The Waste Electrical and
   2010                            Electronics Goods directive (WEEE) and Restriction of Hazardous Substance directive (RoHS) are
                                   the EU’s e-waste management laws. The directives impose Extended Producer Responsibility
                                   (EPR) that makes Electronic and Electrical Equipment (EEE) manufacturers responsible for their
                                   products in the market. The manufacturers are directed to make arrangements for the collection,
                                   treatment and disposal of e-waste resulting from their products. The EU has also formulated
                                   legislation to ban the export of hazardous e-waste to developing countries in Asia and Africa. The
                                   ban has significantly increased the level of e-waste recycling because it pressures the
                                   manufacturers to recollect their discarded items from the market and properly recycle them. The
                                   figure below demonstrates various e–waste policies across the globe.

                                     E-waste Management Laws, Global, 2010

                                                                   WEEE Directive, RoHS Directive             Chinese RoHS Act,
                                                                                                                Ordinance on
                                                                             (Europe)
                                                                                                             Management of WEEE
                                                                                                                     (China)
                                                                                                                                  HARL, Law
                                                                                                                                  for
                                                                                                                                  Promotion
                                                                                                                                  of Effective
                                                                                                                                  Utilization
                                                                                                                                  of
                                                                                                                                  Resources
                                                                                                                                  (Japan)




                                          No Federal E-Waste
                                          Law but individual
                                          states and Provinces
                                          implementing their own
                                          E-Waste Laws
                                          (US and Canada)                                     No National E-Waste Law but
                                                                                              individual states forming their
                                                                                              own E-Waste Laws
                                                                                              (Australia)

                                     Source: GBI Research



                                   Technological Innovations in Wind Turbine Design and Government Incentives are
                                   triggering the Investments in the Wind Power Market
                                   Technological innovations in wind turbine design such as the introduction of turbines which have
                                   very small downtime and higher efficiency has fuelled the investments in the wind power market.
                                   The investments also received a boost from the various incentives given by governments all across
                                   the globe to the wind power producers. For instance, in the US the government supports wind
                                   energy through the Production Tax Credit. It is a federal incentive which provides 10 year corporate
                                   income tax credits of two US cents for every KWh of electricity generated. Many states in the US
                                   have introduced Renewable Portfolio Standard to increase the proportion of their power supply
                                   from renewable sources. Similarly, many countries in Europe also introduced incentives to promote

Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                        GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
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                                   wind power generation. GBI Research predicts the wind energy market to grow steadily due to
                                   these government incentives and technological advancements.
                                   Global Renewable Energy Share in World Marketed Energy Mix is set to increase in 2011
                                   Crude oil and other liquid fuels are the major sources of energy for the world, accounting for
                                   approximately a third of the total energy consumption. However the increasing emphasis on
                                   reducing carbon emissions has led to high acceptance of less polluting energy resources such as
                                   renewable sources, natural gas and nuclear energy.
                                   The increasing environmental concern is the major driving force for the increasing adoption of
                                   renewable sources of energy. The increasing oil prices, technological advancements, favorable
                                   policies and agreement on carbon emission targets by major energy consuming countries will be
                                   the major drivers for renewable energy in 2011. Renewable energy sources are expected to
                                   steadily increase their share in world energy consumption.
                                   Renewable energy accounted for nearly 10% of the total marketed energy mix in 2010, and is
                                   expected to steadily increase to approximately 11% in 2011.
                                   Increasing Water Shortage and Stringent Wastewater Discharge Regulations is Expected to
                                   Drive the Desalination and Wastewater Management Market in 2011
                                   Increasing water shortage is one of the key drivers of the desalination and wastewater
                                   management market. The natural fresh water source is limited and it is being over-exploited all
                                   across the globe for various purposes. This has caused greater strain on the existing limited water
                                   resources and prompted governments all across the globe to look for different alternatives to the
                                   limited natural water resources. Desalination is considered one of the most feasible solutions to
                                   tackle this problem of increasing water shortages. Desalination is no longer seen as a costly option
                                   for producing fresh and pure water. Technological advancements have reduced the cost of
                                   desalination considerably. The overall capital and operating costs of the desalination plants have
                                   reduced significantly over the years.
                                   Legislative directives have revitalized wastewater treatment and the recovery equipment market
                                   and enhanced the growth prospects for secondary and tertiary recycling. The aim is to promote
                                   water conservation by treating and re-using wastewater. These legislative directives have placed
                                   enormous pressure on industries to clean up their wastewater. Local and national water regulators
                                   are keen to adopt international regulations; as for example in China, which recently adopted
                                   regulatory systems from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recommended practices.
                                   International regulations which are more stringent are expected to replace local and national
                                   regulations, thereby driving growth in the adoption of wastewater treatment and recovery
                                   technologies. This trend is likely to favor global conglomerates and drive further consolidation in the
                                   industry in the year 2011.
                                   Strategy of Incentivizing Green Initiatives and Enforcing a Minimum Level of Standards
                                   Bodes Well for the Development of Green Buildings
                                   Governments across the globe have adopted a wide range of strategies, including financial or
                                   structural incentives and policy instruments such as mandatory labeling, certification programs and
                                   building codes, to encourage green buildings. Various governments are leading by example,
                                   implementing a two-pronged strategy of incentivizing green initiatives and enforcing a minimum
                                   level of standards. Several state and local governments already offer financial incentives in the
                                   form of tax credits or grants in order to reward homeowners and developers who practice green
                                   building techniques. Financial assistance in the form of revolving loan funds is yet another measure
                                   which helps to lower the up-front costs associated with some green building practices. Various
                                   governments have adopted policy and regulatory instruments as a cudgel for accelerated
                                   sustainable development. These policies include building codes, building certification and labelling
                                   systems. Governments in many countries have set a minimum level of standard for buildings and
                                   are increasingly addressing energy efficiency in existing buildings and new construction. The policy
                                   instrument is set to drive the green building market.




Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                  GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
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                                   Government Intervention has Helped in Widespread Development Application Of Biofuel
                                   The world’s increasing dependence on foreign oil poses problems for various economies. If the
                                   global imperative is to reduce energy dependence and create cleaner, more cost effective oil
                                   substitutes, one conventional solution to the problem is “biofuel”.
                                   Government intervention is essential for the development and application of biofuel, as they confirm
                                   a mandated amount of biofuels to be used in the market. Government intervention is expected to
                                   spur the use of biofuel, globally. A variety of policy tools are introduced by governments to reduce
                                   the risk and uncertainty for investors. Government involvement also ensures reliability in response
                                   to farmers’ concerns about energy input prices and output biofuel prices. The global economies
                                   also rely on subsidies, tax credits and preferential taxes to ensure that producers can be confident
                                   in their ability to surmount the high cost of biofuel production. Trade policy instruments such as
                                   import restrictions are used to promote the emerging biofuel industry in the American and the
                                   European countries. Most of the countries have made it an essential requirement to blend biofuel
                                   with conventional fuels, which in turn provides a guaranteed market for biofuel in the years to
                                   come.
                                   Global Carbon Trading Market to Reach $180 Billion Mark by 2011
                                   Regulatory efforts to mitigate climate change have spawned an emerging carbon market that was
                                   valued at $10.9bn in 2005 and reached $149bn in 2010. GBI Research expects the market to reach
                                   $180bn in 2011.

                                     Carbon Trading Market, Global, Value ($bn), 2005–2011

                                                             200

                                                                                                                                        180.0
                                                             180

                                                             160
                                                                                                                            149.0
                                                                                                                138.3
                                                             140
                                                                                                    126.4
                                                             120
                                              Value ($ bn)




                                                             100

                                                             80
                                                                                         63.0
                                                             60

                                                             40
                                                                          31.2

                                                             20    10.9

                                                              0
                                                                   2005   2006          2007        2008        2009        2010        2011


                                     Source: GBI Research



                                   Asia-Pacific is expected to Move up in the Global Smart Grid Market in 2011
                                   The global smart grid technology market is growing fast and penetrating new geographies. The
                                   market for smart grid technologies has grown substantively in regions such as North America and
                                   Europe. Asian markets opened up to smart grid technologies during 2009–2010. China and South
                                   Korea announced a financial package towards research in smart grids and related technologies.
                                   The Asia-Pacific region witnessed the introduction of smart grid technologies during 2010. This will
                                   be driven by the need to reduce transmission and distribution losses in these countries. The region
                                   will witness significant growth during the coming years. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to move
                                   up the global smart grid market in 2011.




Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                            GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
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                                   Rising Climate Change Concern is Shifting Attention Towards Adaptation of Hybrid Vehicles
                                   Global climate change is the greatest environmental threat facing the world. World energy demand
                                   grew at a staggering rate of more than 100% during the period 1970-2008, reaching over 12,000
                                   Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent). This increase in energy demand resulted in a dramatic
                                   increase in carbon dioxide (COB2) emissions, triggering global environment change. Worldwide
                                   initiatives such as the 1997 Kyoto Protocol require Organization for Economic Co-operation and
                                   Development (OECD) member states to cut their carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 5.2%
                                   by 2012. The attempted attainment of this target has prompted member countries to look out for
                                   methods to cut their carbon dioxide emissions. This has prompted the massive adoptions of fuel
                                   efficient, low-emission hybrid vehicles to help decrease GHG emissions, helping high-carbon
                                   economies to attain these targets. GBI Research expects that the hybrid vehicle market will witness
                                   a high growth rate in 2011, as the Kyoto protocol deadline is approaching and the market is
                                   showing signs of early recovery from the global recession.
                                   Lithium-ion Battery Share is Poised to increase at the expense of Ni-MH Battery share in the
                                   HEV Battery Market in 2011
                                   Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) market share is expected to decline over the next few years. The
                                   reason for this decline is the emergence of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology. The industry
                                   consensus is that Ni-MH is a mature chemistry that has virtually reached the end of technological
                                   advancement. The only major demand driver for Ni-MH batteries in HEVs will be cost to
                                   performance characteristics and cost reductions due to economies of scale. New generation Ni-MH
                                   batteries will serve approximately 87% of the HEV batteries market in 2011. However, GBI
                                   Research anticipates the share of Ni-MH batteries will shrink in the years to come.




Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
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                                   1         Table of Contents
                                   1  Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 5
                                      1.1    List of Tables..................................................................................................................... 7
                                      1.2    List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 8
                                   2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 9
                                      2.1    Report Guidance ............................................................................................................... 9
                                   3 Lithium-Ion and Nickel-Metal Hybrid Batteries are Likely to Witness a Rise while Nickel-
                                      Cadmium Batteries Lag in 2011 ................................................................................................ 10
                                      3.1    Li-ion Battery share is Expected to increase at the Expense of Ni-MH Battery Share in
                                             the HEV Battery Market in 2011...................................................................................... 11
                                   4 E-Waste Recycling Rates will Continue to Rise in 2011, Driven by Strict Implementation of E-
                                      Waste Management Laws ......................................................................................................... 13
                                      4.1    Global E-Waste Recovery Market, 2005–2011 ............................................................... 15
                                      4.2    Global E-Waste Recovery Market Revenues Breakdown (%), By Material Stream
                                             Recovered, 2010............................................................................................................. 17
                                   5 Tightening Wastewater Discharge Regulations to Stimulate the Growth of Membrane Based
                                      Systems in 2011 ........................................................................................................................ 18
                                      5.1    Global Wastewater Treatment and Recovery Membrane System Market Revenue, 2005–
                                             2011 ................................................................................................................................ 21
                                      5.2    Increasing Water Shortage and Technology Driven Cost Reduction is Expected to Drive
                                             the Desalination Market in 2011...................................................................................... 23
                                      5.3    Global Desalination Capacity, 2005–2011 ...................................................................... 25
                                   6 Pro-Renewable Policies and Technological Advancements Assert High Attractiveness of the
                                      Renewable Energy Market ........................................................................................................ 27
                                      6.1    Global Renewable Energy Share in World Marketed Energy Mix to 2011 ...................... 29
                                      6.2    Technological Innovations in Wind Turbine Design and Government Incentives are
                                             Expected to Fuel Investments in the Wind Power Market ............................................... 30
                                      6.3    Increased Efficiency of Solar Panels and Introduction of Nanotechnology in the Solar
                                             Power Market is Expected to Increase the Installed Solar Photovoltaic Capacity in 2011
                                             ........................................................................................................................................ 31
                                      6.4    Global Hydropower Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2005–2011 ..................................... 32
                                      6.5    Global Biomass Power Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2005–2011 ................................ 33
                                   7 Green Building is Expected to Strengten its Position as a Silver Bullet to Counter the Threats of
                                      Climate Change and Resource Scarcity in 2011 ....................................................................... 34
                                      7.1    The Two-Pronged Strategy of Incentivizing Green Initiatives and Enforcing a Minimum
                                             Level of Standards Bodes Well for the Development of Green Buildings ....................... 34
                                      7.2    Global Green Buildings Market, 2011 ............................................................................. 35
                                      7.3    Economy Recovery is Expected to Have a Positive Ripple Effect on the Global
                                             Construction Market ........................................................................................................ 37
                                   8 Need to Reduce the Dependence on Foreign Oil Will Continue to Drive the Growth of the
                                      Hybrid Vehicle Market in 2011 ................................................................................................... 39
                                      8.1    Global Hybrid Electric Car Market by Volume, 2005–2011 ............................................. 40
                                      8.2    US Hybrid Electric Car Sales Witnessing a Rise after Being Badly Affected by the Global
                                             Recession ....................................................................................................................... 41
                                      8.3    Corporate Fleets are at the Forefront in Providing a Positive Example of Ecological
                                             Responsibility and Sustainable Practices in North America ............................................ 42
                                   9 Environmental Regulations, Renewable Fuel Standards and Mandates to Drive Investments in
                                      the Global Biofuels Market ........................................................................................................ 44
                                      9.1    Global Biofuel Production, On the Basis of Geography, 2005–2011............................... 64
                                      9.2    Global Biofuel Consumption, On the Basis of Geography, 2005–2011 ........................... 65
                                   10 Carbon Policy Initiatives to Drive the Global Carbon Trading Market ........................................ 66
                                      10.1 Kyoto Protocol, a Precursor of Emissions Trading Systems ........................................... 67
                                      10.2 Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) ........................................................................ 67
                                         10.2.1 Joint Implementation (JI) and Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) ................................... 68
                                      10.3 Secondary Project-Based Market: Instrument to Hedge Price Risk in the Primary Project-
                                             Based Market .................................................................................................................. 69


Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                                              GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
                                                                                                                                                                              Page 5
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                                      10.4 Cap and Trade Mechanism ............................................................................................. 70
                                      10.5 Global Carbon Trading Market to Reach $180 Billion Mark by 2011 .............................. 74
                                   11 Expansion Strategies will be Key for the Development of the Global Smart Grid Market .......... 75
                                      11.1 Private Equity / Venture Capital Investments in the Global Smart Grid Market are Likely
                                             to Increase in 2011 ......................................................................................................... 83
                                      11.2 Asia-Pacific is Expected to Move up in the Global Smart Grid Market in 2011 ............... 87
                                   12 Increasing Private Sector Investments are Expected to Trigger the Widespread
                                      Commercialization of Waste to Energy Technology in 2011 ..................................................... 89
                                      12.1 Major Factors Affecting the Waste to Energy Market ...................................................... 89
                                         12.1.1 Improved Emission Controls .................................................................................... 89
                                         12.1.2 Eligibility for Tax Incentives and Carbon Credits ..................................................... 89
                                         12.1.3 Landfill Legislations ................................................................................................. 89
                                      12.2 Global Waste to Energy Revenue, 2005–2011 ............................................................... 90
                                   13 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 92
                                      13.1 About GBI Research ....................................................................................................... 92
                                      13.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 92
                                      13.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 94
                                         13.3.1 Coverage ................................................................................................................. 94
                                         13.3.2 Secondary Research ............................................................................................... 94
                                         13.3.3 Primary Research .................................................................................................... 95
                                         13.3.4 Expert Panel Validation ........................................................................................... 95
                                      13.4 Contact Us ...................................................................................................................... 95
                                      13.5 Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 95




Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                                            GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
                                                                                                                                                                           Page 6
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                                   1.1    List of Tables
                                   Table 1:    Global Market Share of Advanced Battery Technologies, Percentage (%), 2010–201110
                                   Table 2:    Lithium-ion Battery Market, Global, Analysis on the Basis of Application, Hybrid Electric
                                               Vehicles, By Value ($m), 2009–2011 ............................................................................. 11
                                   Table 3:    Nickel-Metal Hydride Battery Market, Global, Analysis on the Basis of Application,
                                               Hybrid Electric Vehicles, By Value ($m), 2009–2011 ..................................................... 12
                                   Table 4:    E-Waste Recovery, Global, Revenue, ($bn), 2005–2011 .............................................. 15
                                   Table 5:    E-Waste Recovery, Global, Revenue, By Geography, 2010 .......................................... 16
                                   Table 6:    E-Waste Recovery, Global, Revenue, By Material Streams Recovered, 2010 .............. 17
                                   Table 7:    Wastewater Treatment Market, Global, Water Schemes ............................................... 19
                                   Table 8:    Water Management and Control Regulations, China ..................................................... 19
                                   Table 9:    Wastewater Treatment Market, Europe, Key Countries Regulations ............................. 20
                                   Table 10:   Wastewater Treatment and Recovery Market, Global, Revenue ($bn), 2005–2011 ..... 21
                                   Table 11:   Desalination Market, Membrane Desalination, Cumulative Contracted Capacity (million
                                               m³/day), 2005–2020 ....................................................................................................... 24
                                   Table 12:   Desalination Market, Global, Cumulative Contracted Capacity (million m³/day), 2005–
                                               2011 ............................................................................................................................... 26
                                   Table 13:   Renewable Energy Market, the US, Key Federal Legislations ....................................... 27
                                   Table 14:   Renewable Energy Market, Europe, Key Countries Target ............................................ 28
                                   Table 15:   Renewable Energy Share of the Global Marketed Energy Mix, (Quadrillion Btu), 2005–
                                               2011 ............................................................................................................................... 29
                                   Table 16:   Wind Power Market, Global, Generation (GWh) 2005–2011 ......................................... 30
                                   Table 17:   Solar PV Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005–2011 ....... 31
                                   Table 18:   Hydropower Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005–2011 ............. 32
                                   Table 19:   Biomass Power Market, Global, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2005–2011 ....... 33
                                   Table 20:   Green Buildings Market, Global, Revenue ($bn), 2010–2011 ........................................ 35
                                   Table 21:   Global Construction Market, Revenue ($bn), 2005–2011 .............................................. 37
                                   Table 22:   Hybrid Electric Car Market, Global, Volume (‘000), 2005–2011 ..................................... 40
                                   Table 23:   Hybrid Electric Car Market, the US, Volume (‘000), 2005–2011 .................................... 41
                                   Table 24:   North America, FedEx’s Hybrid Electric Vehicle Fleet, Installed Base, 2005–2010 ...... 42
                                   Table 25:   Key Biofuel Tax Credits, the US, 2010 ........................................................................... 44
                                   Table 26:   Renewable Fuel Standards (Billion Gallons Per Year), the US, 2010–2022 .................. 45
                                   Table 27:   Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, Grants ............................................... 46
                                   Table 28:   Subsidy Cost ($) per ton of CO2 equivalent , Europe, 2010 ........................................... 47
                                   Table 29:   Mandatory Blending Targets, (%), Europe, 2009 ........................................................... 47
                                   Table 30:   Global Biofuel Market, Key Deals, 2010 ......................................................................... 48
                                   Table 31:   Global Biofuel Market, Partnership Deals, 2010 ............................................................ 49
                                   Table 32:   Global Biofuel Market, Mergers and Acquisitions ........................................................... 52
                                   Table 33:   Global Biofuel Market, PE/VC Deals, 2010 .................................................................... 56
                                   Table 34:   Global Biofuel Market, Debt Offerings, 2010 .................................................................. 58
                                   Table 35:   Global Biofuel Market, Equity Offerings, 2010 ............................................................... 61
                                   Table 36:   Biofuel Market, Global, Production (Mbblpd), 2005–2011 .............................................. 64
                                   Table 37:   Biofuel Market, Global, Consumption (Mbblpd), 2005–2011 .......................................... 65
                                   Table 38:   Global Project Design Documents, 2010 ....................................................................... 68
                                   Table 39:   Carbon Trading Market, Global, Value ($bn), 2005–2011 .............................................. 74
                                   Table 40:   Smart Grid, Key Mergers and Acquisitions, 2010........................................................... 76
                                   Table 41:   Smart Grid, Key Equity Offering Deals, 2010 ................................................................. 79
                                   Table 42:   Smart Grid, Key Debt Offering Deals, 2010 ................................................................... 81
                                   Table 43:   Smart Grid, Key Partnership Deals, 2010 ...................................................................... 82
                                   Table 44:   Global Venture Capital Investments in Smart Grid, Early 2010 ...................................... 83
                                   Table 45:   Smart Grid, Key PE/VC Funding, 2010 .......................................................................... 84
                                   Table 46:   Waste to Energy, Global, Revenue, $bn, 2005–2011 .................................................... 90
                                   Table 47:   Waste to Energy Market, Global, Revenue, By Geography, Percentage (%), 2010....... 91
                                   Table 48:   Glossary Of Terms ......................................................................................................... 92




Top Ten Clean Technology Trends in 2011                                                                                           GBICT0034ICR /Published JAN 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            Page 7
                                                                                   © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                   1.2       List of Figures
                                   Figure 1: Global Market Share of Advanced Battery Technologies, Percentage (%), 2010–201110
                                   Figure 2: Lithium-ion Battery Market, Global, Analysis on the Basis of Application, Hybrid Electric
                                              Vehicles, By Value ($m), 2009–2011 ............................................................................. 11
                                   Figure 3: Nickel-Metal Hydride Battery Market, Global, Analysis on the Basis of Application,
                                              Hybrid Electric Vehi
								
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