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					10 Influenza Pandemic Models

  By Claude Penland, Associate of the
      Casualty Actuarial Society
         What are we doing?
• We will discuss some different types of
  influenza pandemic models.
• This is not intended to be a comprehensive
  look at the state of pandemic modeling, and
  instead is merely a discussion of some
  interesting flu pandemic models.
        What is a Pandemic?
• Pandemics are infectious disease epidemics
  that spread across a wide region.
• Recent pandemics include the flu pandemic
  of 2009 and the HIV pandemic.
• Historical pandemics have also included
  outbreaks of tuberculosis and smallpox.
       1. Society of Actuaries
• The Society of Actuaries’ model evaluates
  the potential impact on the United States
  life insurance industry.
• Actuarial analysis looks at possible
  economic effects as well as potential excess
  insured mortality.
        2. Pandemic Influenza
            Policy Model
• Military Medicine looks at a policy model for
  military public health officials.
• This Pandemic Influenza Policy Model (PIPM) is
  a collaborative computer modeling effort between
  the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics
  Laboratory and U.S. Department of Defense.
• Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Homeland
  Security’s “Best Practices and Model Protocols”
  provides many interesting discussions of model
  3. Risk Management Solutions
• The model by a catastrophe risk modeling firm,
  Risk Management Solutions (RMS), supplies
  thousands of unique pandemic scenarios.
• These vary based on demographics, virus
  infectiousness, vaccine production and efficacy,
  lethality of virus and pandemic lifecycle.
• Additional information is available at “Managing
  Influenza Pandemic Risk”.
                4. FluTE
• FluTE is an open source model.
• The model is calibrated so that outcomes
  are consistent with the 2009 pandemic
  A(H1N1) and 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2)
  influenza viruses.
              5. Milliman
• Milliman, a consulting actuary, has modeled
  pandemics so that they may price mortality
  catastrophe bonds.
• It is an actuarial model based on a
  frequency and severity approach.
 6. Epidemic Simulation System
• The National Infrastructure Simulation and
  Analysis Center (NISAC), which is at the
  Los Alamos National Laboratory, has the
  Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS).
• EpiSimS models the U.S. as fifteen regions.
• Each region is composed of around 20
  million synthetic individuals.
7. INFORMS Simulation Society
• At the INFORMS Simulation Society
  Winter Conference of 2009, a paper was
  presented on a simulation model for
  pandemic preparedness planning.
• The paper presents a geospatial and
  temporal disease spread model for flu
  pandemics with particular attention paid to
  school closings.
     8. Global Epidemic Model
• The Global Epidemic Model (GEM)
  enables testing of intervention strategies.
• It uses uses population data and airline
  travel data to create an air travel network
  among the major metropolitan areas of the
• It then models the course of the potential
  epidemic as it spreads around the world.
                9. VirSim
• VirSim was developed to help support
  policy making.
• Governments can decide on intervention
  strategies, and lost work and hospitalization
  effects on society are documented.
 10. University of South Florida
• The University of South Florida’s model
  performs simulations for development of
  dynamic mitigation strategies.
            Other Models
• Some other models include Georgia Tech’s,
  The University of Western Australia’s, a
  Biological Model for Influenza
  Transmission, a model of Japan and an
  Avian-human influenza epidemic model.
            Other Sources
• Additional sources are, a pandemic
  simulation community website, NPR, The
  Scientist and MAA.
• See for catastrophe risk
  trends and news.
• Thank you!

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