Predictive Modeling for Actuaries By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.PredNews.com Our plan • This presentation will provide eight examples of strong industry presentations and articles where actuaries can apply predictive modeling to life insurance, property and casualty insurance and health insurance data. Example 1 • At the Society of Actuaries’ Annual Meeting, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries discussed Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance. • Topics included generalized linear modeling, mortality analysis, policyholder behavior and stochastic modeling. Example 2 • At the Actuaries’ Club of Boston and Hartford/Springfield Joint Meeting, a Chartered Financial Analyst / Fellow of the Society of Actuaries applied Predictive Modeling to Variable Annuity Lapse Rates. Example 3 • Two Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society presented to the SoCal Actuarial Club on Predictive Modeling for Property- Casualty Insurance. • This is a substantial presentation on predictive modeling strategies, methodologies and techniques. Example 4 • Consultants at Towers Watson have written Multiple Dimensions of Pricing Sophistication, which describes five dimensions of property and casualty insurance rating sophistication. • These are pricing strategy, competitive sensing, rating plan design, modeling approach and data. Example 5 • PointRight employees recently wrote on Building and Maintaining a Profitable Captive Insurer with Predictive Modeling. Example 6 • At the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Ratemaking Seminar, a consulting actuary presented on Data Preparation for Predictive Modeling, and described data requirements, types of data variables and various data quality issues. Example 7 • For the health actuary, More Predictive Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence Dimension and Boosted Regression covers pharmaceutical claims predictive methods. • It was presented at the American Society of Health Economists Conference. Example 8 • In Building a Predictive Model: An Example of a Product Recommendation Engine, Intelligent Mining describes a predictive analytics algorithm that could be applied to building an insurance product recommendation engine. Wrap Up • Visit www.PredNews.com for the latest news and trends in predictive analytics and modeling • Thank you!
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