predictive_modeling_for_actuaries by CasualtyActuary


									    Predictive Modeling
       for Actuaries
By Claude Penland, Associate of the
    Casualty Actuarial Society
                Our plan
• This presentation will provide eight
  examples of strong industry presentations
  and articles where actuaries can apply
  predictive modeling to life insurance,
  property and casualty insurance and health
  insurance data.
               Example 1
• At the Society of Actuaries’ Annual
  Meeting, a Fellow of the Society of
  Actuaries discussed Predictive Modeling in
  Life Insurance.
• Topics included generalized linear
  modeling, mortality analysis, policyholder
  behavior and stochastic modeling.
               Example 2
• At the Actuaries’ Club of Boston and
  Hartford/Springfield Joint Meeting, a
  Chartered Financial Analyst / Fellow of the
  Society of Actuaries applied Predictive
  Modeling to Variable Annuity Lapse Rates.
               Example 3
• Two Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial
  Society presented to the SoCal Actuarial
  Club on Predictive Modeling for Property-
  Casualty Insurance.
• This is a substantial presentation on
  predictive modeling strategies,
  methodologies and techniques.
              Example 4
• Consultants at Towers Watson have written
  Multiple Dimensions of Pricing
  Sophistication, which describes five
  dimensions of property and casualty
  insurance rating sophistication.
• These are pricing strategy, competitive
  sensing, rating plan design, modeling
  approach and data.
               Example 5
• PointRight employees recently wrote on
  Building and Maintaining a Profitable
  Captive Insurer with Predictive Modeling.
               Example 6
• At the Casualty Actuarial Society’s
  Ratemaking Seminar, a consulting actuary
  presented on Data Preparation for Predictive
  Modeling, and described data requirements,
  types of data variables and various data
  quality issues.
               Example 7
• For the health actuary, More Predictive
  Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using
  Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence
  Dimension and Boosted Regression covers
  pharmaceutical claims predictive methods.
• It was presented at the American Society of
  Health Economists Conference.
                Example 8
• In Building a Predictive Model: An
  Example of a Product Recommendation
  Engine, Intelligent Mining describes a
  predictive analytics algorithm that could be
  applied to building an insurance product
  recommendation engine.
                Wrap Up
• Visit for the latest
  news and trends in predictive analytics and
• Thank you!

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