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Allomax Subsea

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									       Allomax Subsea
The BP Deepwater Horizon Disaster
         What Happened?
      Will it Happen Again?




 www.allomax.com
   Staff        ROV           Asset
Recruitment   Operations   Optimisation


 Agency        Subsea         Risk
 Services     Personnel    Management


                           Competence
                            Assurance
Track Record Over 250 projects
      (Subsea Examples)
 •   Potential major incident (confidential)
      –   Shut in production for riser replacement or not?
      –   Commence relief well or not?
 •   >100 field evaluations for acquisitions
 •   Total Dalian Angola
      –   Risk Assessment
      –   Xmas tree deployment over live pipelines / subsea infrastructure
      –   Marine traffic / simultaneous operations
      –   Subsea vs MMFP
 •   BP Foinavon & Shiehallion
      –   ERD vs Drill Centre Optimisation
      –   3rd Generation vs 4th Generation Semi
      –   Daisy Chain vs Star Configuration
      –   Chance of Submarine Collision
      –   Marine Architecture design for over trawl
 •   Conceptual Field Design Optimisation
      –   Kiame Angola, Tilapia Congo (Ranger)
      –   Zhoa Dong (Apache China), Espoire (Halliburton Cote d’Ivoire)
      –   Harding (BP), Claymore, Auk North (Talisman)
      –   Jasmine (ConocoPhillips)
      –   Shiehallion & Foinavon (BP)
MACONDO DISASTER GOM
     BP - Seven Mechanisms Under
             Investigation
1. The cement that seals the reservoir from the well;
2. The casing system, which seals the well bore;
3. The pressure tests to confirm the well is sealed;
4. The execution of procedures to detect and control
   hydrocarbons in the well, including the use of the blowout
   preventer (BOP) and the maintenance of that BOP; -
   Cameron Failsafe
5. The BOP emergency disconnect system, which can be
   activated by pushing a button at multiple locations on the
   rig;
6. The automatic closure of the BOP after its connection is lost
   with the rig, and;
7. Features in the BOP to allow ROVs to close the BOP and
   thereby seal the well at the seabed after a blowout.
BP Accident
Investigation
   Report
 BP Deepwater Horizon Accident
        Report Findings
1. The annulus cement barrier did not isolate the hydrocarbons.
2. The shoe track barrier did not isolate the hydrocarbons.
3. The negative-pressure test was accepted although well
   integrity had not been established.
4. Influx was not recognised until hydrocarbons were in the
   riser.
5. Well control response actions failed to regain control of the
   well.
6. Diversion to the mud gas separator resulted in gas venting
   onto the rig.
7. The fire and gas system did not prevent hydrocarbon
   ignition.
8. The BOP emergency mode did not seal the well.
                                                               8
        What Went Wrong?
• Risk Management?
• Competency?
• Design?
• Supervision?
• Maintenance?
• Adherence to Corporate Processes /
  Procedures / Standards?
• Culture / Behaviours?
Eight Areas of Industry Concern
1.   Risk Management discipline / analysis
2.   Well design approval / checks
3.   Personnel competency / training / development
4.   Roles & Responsibilities of key parties
     a) Rig / Operator
     b) Statutory Authorities / Operator
     c) Subcontractors
5.   Audit & Supervision of key contractors
6.   Financial capability of Operators
7.   Disaster recovery
     a) Industry oil spill response technology
     b) Industry ‘fund’
     c) Government responsibility / input
8.   Insurance availability / costs & procedures
EXAMPLE – MACONDO
CASING DESIGN
Good Practice – High Tech Wells
• Stage Gate Approval Process
  – Outline Well Design Option Analysis
  – Outline Risk Assessment of Options
     • Contractor Input
        – Free and open criticism
  – Detailed 3rd Party Risk Assessment of Options
     • Simulate disaster outturns for High Tech wells
        – (Market Capitalisation impact)
  – Design Peer Review
  – Detailed Design of Selected Option
  – Casing / Completion Design Review for High Tech
    Wells
Liner vs Long String
Internal Leak Path



   6. Cement Plug?
   5. Bridge Plug?




   4. Cement Plug?


   3. Float Collar
   2. Cement
   1. Float Shoe
                  Annular Leak Path
                                 3. Seal Assembly?




5. Cement Plug


4. Fluid Column                  2. Fluid Column


3. Liner Top
Cement Plug

2. Liner Seal
Assembly

1. Cement                        1. Cement
Risk Management
 Hold Risk Sessions:
 • Concept Selection
 • Detailed Design
 • Operations
   – Tornado Charts
   – Boston Square
   – Management Reports
     • Comparison of projects
Tornado Chart
Boston Square
Management Monitoring
Treemax Risked Option Analysis
            Tool
• Monte Carlo simulator behind a modified
  decision tree
• End results of each branch represent
  – chances of getting there
  – likely costs / time / impact
• Graphical comparison of all options
  against each other
Risk Analysis                                                                                     0.95
                                                                                       4. Drill 8 1/2" OK
                                                                                                                                0.99
                                                                                                                      5. Run Set Comp'n OK

                                                                                                                         £6,794,798
                                                                                                                        40.07784667
                                                                                                                        112.0773053
                                                                                                                                                     6. Facilities Success




                                                                                                                                                     8. Fail Facilities
                                                                                                                                                                              0.99


                                                                                                                                                                          £250,000
                                                                                                                                                                           0.01818
                                                                                                                                                                              0.01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            63.02%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £42,526,839
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                112


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.64%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £42,776,839
                                                                                                                                                                        £500,000                                                                115
                                                                                          £2,432,652                                                                3.394784167
                                                                                        16.70949333                              0.01
                                                                                         £10,482,041                  7. Fail Set Comp'n                                                                                                     0.64%
                                                                                                  72                                                                                                                                    £43,487,413
                                                                                                                         £8,005,372                                                                                                             118
                                                                                                                        46.12983667
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.99
                                                                                                                                                                                                              30. Facilities Success         3.22%
                                                                                                                                                                                              0.99                                     £101,673,222
                                                                        0.95                                                                                                         29. Run Set Comp'n OK      £45,000,000                     159
                                                              3. Drill 12 1/4" OK                                                                                                                              1.411483333
                                                                                                                                                                                        £9,591,158                       0.01
                                                               £6,198,541                                                                                                     0.98    30.31784667             34. Fail facilities            0.03%
                                                               42.5767853                                                                            28. S/T To Horiz OK                                                               £101,673,222
                                                                                                                                                                                                                £45,000,000                     158
                                                                                                                                                                      £7,545,308                                    0.01818
                                                                                                                                  0.99                              28.62677597                0.01
                                                                                                                      27. Drill Vertical Subsea OK                                   33. Fail Set Comp'n                                     0.03%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £55,670,429
                                                                                                                          £4,987,367                                                    £8,588,365                                              158
                                                                                                                           18.92218                                                   30.31784667
                                                                                                 0.05                                                                         0.02
                                                                                       9. Fail Drill 8 1/2"                                          32. No Res / Fail TD                                                                    0.07%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £40,990,406
                                                                                          £1,500,000                                                                  £1,453,650                                                                104
                                                                                           24.41616                                                                      5.51518
                                                                                                                               0.01
                                         0.95                                                                         31. No Res / Fail TD                                                                                                   0.03%
                               2. Slot Recovery OK                                                                                                                                                                                      £42,813,754
                                                                                                                         £8,264,364                                                                                                             102
                                  £1,850,848                                                                            22.12245614
                                   12.71318                                                                                                                                                     0.99
                                                                                                                                                                                     30. Facilities Success                                  3.39%
                                                                                                                                                                        0.99                                                            £95,474,681
                                                                                                                                                     29. Run Set Comp'n OK             £45,000,000                                              138
                                                                                                                                                                                      1.411483333
                                                                                                                                                                      £9,591,158                0.01
                                                                                                                                0.98                                30.31784667      34. Fail facilities                                     0.03%
                                                                                                                      28. S/T To Horiz OK                                                                                               £95,474,681
                                                                                                                                                                                       £45,000,000                                              136
                                                                                                                         £7,545,308                                                        0.01818
                      0.75                                                                        0.99                  28.62677597                                           0.01
            1. Platform Well                                                           27. Drill Vertical Subsea OK                                  33. Fail Set Comp'n                                                                     0.03%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £49,471,888
             £25,000,000                                                                  £4,987,367                                                                  £8,588,365                                                                136
                 0.01818                                                                   18.92218                                                                 30.31784667
                                                                       0.05                                                    0.02
                                                              16. Fail Drill 12 1/4"                                  32. No Res / Fail TD                                                                                                   0.07%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £34,791,865
                                                               £1,500,000                                                 £1,453,650                                                                                                             83



  Option 1
                                                               45.7808367                                                    5.51518
                                                                                               0.01
                                                                                       31. No Res / Fail TD                                                                                                                                  0.04%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £36,615,212
                                                                                         £8,264,364                                                                                                                                              81
                                                                                        22.12245614
                                         0.05
                               25. Slot Recovery Fail                                                                                                                                                                                        3.75%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £25,000,000
                                         £0                                                                                                                                                                                                      16
        1                       16.16083667
    0                                                                                                                             0.99
                                                                                                                      30. Facilities Success                                                                                                95.09%
                                                                                                0.99                                                                                                                                    £68,623,871
                                                                                       29. Run Set Comp'n OK             £45,000,000                                                                                                             82
                                                                                                                        1.411483333



  Option 2
                                                                                          £9,591,158                             0.01
                                                                      0.98              30.31784667                   34. Fail facilities                                                                                                    0.96%
                                                              28. S/T To Horiz OK        £23,623,871                                                                                                                                    £68,623,871
                                                                                                                         £45,000,000                                                                                                             80
                                                               £7,545,308                                                    0.01818
                                          0.99                 28.626776                         0.01
                               27. Drill Vertical Subsea OK   £14,032,713              33. Fail Set Comp'n                                                                                                                                   0.97%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £22,621,078
                                  £4,987,367                                             £8,588,365                                                                                                                                              80
                                   18.92218                                             30.31784667
                                                                      0.02
            26. Subsea Well                                   32. No Res / Fail TD                                                                                                                                                           1.98%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         £7,941,055
               £1,500,039                                       £1,453,650                                                                                                                                                                       27
                  2.48718                                          5.51518
                                        0.01
                               31. No Res / Fail TD                                                                                                                                                                                          1.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         £9,764,402
                                 £8,264,364                                                                                                                                                                                                      25
                                22.12245614
Deep Water Horizon Disaster
 Annulus Leak Path
Liner vs Long String



   Liner




   Long
   String
  Comparison of Options (Results
Confidential – Example Plot Shown)
               Conclusions
• Existing systems in place to protect
  against recurrence
• Risk management appears weak
  – Risk Management is a Cultural Challenge of
    great significance
• Questions over competency of key
  personnel in all major parties
  – Continuous Competency monitoring a major
    challenge
       Can It Happen Again?
• USA’s Piper Alpha
  – Extremely Unlikely Series of Events
  – Extensive Investigation
  – Fundamental Re-Analysis of Modus Operandi
    • High Tech wells especially
• Procedures / Technology & Designs
  available to avoid recurrence
• Extremely Unlikely to Occur Again

								
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