Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity and Hatchery Production
Redds counts Adult counts
What do we mean by “Productivity”
• Measure of a population’s ability to replace itself.
– “Population growth rate” – “Trend in Abundance” is the manifestation of long-term population growth rate – Incorporates life stage specific survival, fecundity, age structure, and behavior
Presentation Outline
• Trends in Abundance • Hatchery Production • Management Actions • Critical Uncertainties
Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Population and ESU Structure
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Snake River Fall Chinook
Fall Chinook ESU current fall chinook spawning historic fall chinook spawning
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• One remaining population
–Lyons Ferry Hatchery genetics very similar to natural-origin (endemic brood program) –Reduced distribution within assessable habitat
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Map developed by NOAA - Fisheries, June 2004. 2725 Montlake Blvd East, Seattle WA 98112 tel. 206.860.3405 fax. 206.860.3400
–Marsing Reach –Salmon Falls
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Average Adult Returns to Snake River Basin by Decade
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Pre 40's 40's 50's 60's 70's 80's 90's 00's
= Natural/wild Origin
Average Adult Returns
= Hatchery Origin
Estimated Return of Fall Chinook Adult Returns to Lower Granite Dam, 1975-2007
40000
Number of Adults
Draft Escapement Goal = 39,110
30000 20000 10000 0
'75 '80 '85
= Natural Origin
= Hatchery Origin = Out-of-Basin Hatchery Strays
'90
'95
'00
'05
Return Year
Abundance and Productivity Metrics
ICTRT 12-21-06 Draft Assessment
10-year geomean natural abundance 10-year (1990-1999) return/spawner productivity 23-year (1977-1999) return/spawner productivity 1,273 1.24 0.82
Beverton-Holt fit productivity (1990-1999) Beverton-Holt fit productivity (1977-1999) Lambda productivity estimate (1990-1999)
Lambda productivity estimate (1977-1999) Average proportion natural origin spawners (recent 10 years) Reproductive success adj. for hatchery origin spawners
1.30 0.84 1.31
1.14 46% n/a
Number of Fall Chinook Redds Counted above Lower Granite Dam, 1988-2007
3000 2500
Redd Number
2000 1500 1000 500 0 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06
First Adult Returns from Supplementation
Overall distribution of redds upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir
(1988 – 2006 Average )
Washington Lyons Ferry Hatchery
Lower Granite Dam
Idaho Clearwater and N.F. Clearwater rivers
Grande Ronde 8.0%
am kD a rsh wo D
Imnaha 2.7%
Salmon 0.7%
Lower Granite Reservoir Captain John Rapids Grande Ronde River Imnaha River
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South Fork Cr ee Clearwater River k
Clearwater 24.3%
Snake 64.3%
Salmon River
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Snake River
Snake River
Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Hatchery Production
• Past
– Egg bank program – Kalama/Hagerman 1976-1984 – Lyons Ferry releases below Granite 1984-1994 (LSRCP Mitigation)
• Present
– USvOR dispute, releases above Lower Granite Dam, FCAP acclimation 1995-present – NPTH 2003 – Present – IPC Mitigation
• Future
– US v OR Agreement TBD
Hatchery Facilities and Release Locations
Washington Lyons Ferry Hatchery Lower Granite Dam Idaho Clearwater and N.F. Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Clearwater rivers
Lower Granite Reservoir Captain John Rapids Grande Ronde River Imnaha River
Oxbow Hatchery Oregon
Bi g
Dw
m Da k ha ors
Ca ny on
South Fork Cr ee Clearwater River k
Salmon River
P it tsb ur g He lls Ca Ox n
La nd i ng
Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Production Goals
Funding Source Production Facility Production Capacity
1+ Lower Snake River Compensation Plan
Idaho Power Company Idaho Power Company Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program2
0+
Lyons Ferry Hatchery Oxbow Hatchery Umatilla Hatchery Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery
900,000 0 0 0
2,200,000 200,000 800,000 1,400,000
Total
900,000
4,600,000
Production Program
Priority
Rearing Facility
1 2 3 4
5 6
Number
450,000 150,000 150,000 150,000
200,000 500,000
Age
1+ 1+ 1+ 1+
0+ 0+
Release Location(s)
On station Pittsburg Landing Big Canyon Captain John Rapids
On station Captain John Rapids
Marking
225KAdCWT+VIE 225K CWT +VIE 70K AdCWT 80K CWT only 70K AdCWT 80K CWT only 70K AdCWT 80K CWT only 200K AdCWT 100K AdCWT 100K CWT only 300K Unmarked 100K AdCWT 100K CWT only 300K Unmarked
Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry
Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry
7
Lyons Ferry
500,000
0+
Big Canyon
8 9
10 11
Lyons Ferry Oxbow
Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry
200,000 200,000
200,000 200,000
0+ 0+
0+ 0+
Pittsburg Landing Hells Canyon Dam
Pittsburg Landing
100K AdCWT 100K CWT only 200K AdCWT
200K Unmarked 200K AdCWT
Direct stream evaluation Near Captain John Rapids Transportation Studya
Grande Ronde River Transportation Studya Hells Canyon Dam Grande Ronde River
12
13 14 15 16
DNFH/Irrigon
Lyons Ferryb DNFH/Irrigon Umatilla Lyons Ferryb
250,000
200,000 78,000 200,000 200,000
0+
0+ 0+ 0+ 0+
250K PIT tag only
200K AdCWT 78K PIT tag only 200K AdCWT 200K Unmarked
17
Umatilla
600,000
0+
Hells Canyon Dam
600K Ad only
Total Fall Chinook Salmon Releases in Snake River Basin
Yearlings (1+)
4500000
Subyearling (0+)
4000000
3500000
3000000
Number Released
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
Release Location in Snake River Basin
Downstream of Lower Granite
6000000
Upstream of Lower Granite
5000000
4000000
Number Released
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
Hatchery Operations Past and Present
Past Hatchery Lyons Ferry Present Lyons Ferry Acclimation Ponds Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Idaho Power Company Supplementation/ Mitigation Upstream and Downstream of Lower Granite Dam
HxN (30% natural)
Purpose
Egg Bank
Release Location
Downstream of Lower Granite Dam
HXH
Broodstock
Estimated Return of Fall Chinook Adult Returns to Lower Granite Dam, 1975-2007
15000
Number of Adults
12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0
'75 '80
Other Hatchery 2004-07 Estimate FCAP Clearwater FCAP Snake Lyons Ferry Hat. Wild/Natural
First Adult Returns from Supplementation
ICTRT minimum viability threshold = 2,500
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
Return Year
Management Actions Past and Present
Past Hatchery Lyons Ferry Present Lyons Ferry Acclimation Ponds Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery Idaho Power Company Stable Hells Canyon Flows Flow/Temperature Augmentation
Transportation Transportation Summer Spill
Habitat
Hydrosystem
Harvest
Reduction in Take
Reduction in Take
Snake River Wild Fall Chinook River Mouth Run Sizes and Total In-River Harvest Rates
16,000 Recent Years' In-river Fisheries Limited to a 31.29% Harvest Rate. 14,000 60.00% 70.00%
12,000 50.00% 10,000
Run Size
Average Pre ESA Harvest Rate Snake River Fall Chinook Listed 4/92
40.00%
8,000 30.00% 6,000 20.00% 4,000
Average Post ESA Harvest Rate
2,000
10.00%
0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Snake River Wild Fall Chinook River Mouth Run Size
0.00%
Total Treaty and Non-Treaty In-river Harvest Rate
Total Inriver Harvest Rate
Cooperative and Joint Management Effort
Funding Source Hatcheries Lower Snake River Compensation Plan BPA/NPCC IPC Implementers WDFW NPT IPC CTUIR ODFW IDFG Redd Counts (NPT, IPC, USFWS, WDFW) Juvenile behavior and survival (USFWS, NPT, USGS, NOAA) Hatchery performance (WDFW, NPT) Run Reconstruction (WDFW, NPT, NOAA, UofI, USvOR-TAC)
Monitoring and Evaluation
Lower Snake River Compensation Plan BPA/NPCC BLM IPC COE PSC (Southern Boundry Fund)
What We Do Know
• Increases in abundance and productivity have occurred, but the extent to which those improvements in overall life-cycle survival effects on fall Chinook salmon will be maintained and can be attributed to recent changes in management vs merely reflective of improvements in ocean productivity is uncertain. • Hatchery releases upstream of Lower Granite Dam have increased the abundance of spawners in natal habitat, with assumed contribution to increased production.
What We Do Know (cont.)
• Adult abundance via annual run-reconstruction of fish to Lower Granite Dam. – Natural-origin adult abundance near delisting criteria. – Total abundance is well below historic levels and current management goals. • Adult distribution via annual aerial redd counts. – 70/30 rule between Snake and Clearwater. • Mainstem state and tribal harvest via coded-wire tag recoveries and creel surveys.
Things We Don’t Know
• Contribution/influence of hatchery fish on natural productivity. • Long-term viability of an ESU with only a single extant population spatial structure and diversity. • Extant and extirpated habitat carrying capacity. • Estimates of annual juvenile abundance / production. • Survival rates for hydrosystem passage routes or operational strategies. • Role of juvenile life history diversity.