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Surya Roshni-RU3QFY2011-150211

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					                                                                                                      3QFY2011 Result Update | Metals
                                                                                                                             February 15, 2011



 Surya Roshni                                                                                  BUY
                                                                                               CMP                                        `108
 Performance Highlights                                                                        Target Price                               `135
  Y/E March (` cr)            3QFY11       2QFY11 % chg (qoq)         3QFY10 % chg (yoy)       Investment Period                  12 Months
  Net Sales                         597        597            0.0         496         20.5
  EBITDA                             36          33           8.9          29         21.3    Stock Info
  EBITDA margin (%)                 6.0         5.5                        5.9                Sector                                       Metals
  PAT                                11             7        60.0              7      55.8    Market Cap (` cr)                              473
  Source: Company, Angel Research                                                             Fully Dil. Market Cap (` cr)                   532
                                                                                              Beta                                           0.8
 For 3QFY2011, Surya Roshni reported a top-line increase of 20.5% yoy to `597cr
 (`496cr), which was below our estimate of `659cr. OPM came in at 6.0% (5.9%),                52 Week High / Low                          124/67

 again below our estimate of 7.2% mainly on account of the higher-than-expected               Avg. Daily Volume                          99,439
 raw material costs. Owing to the strong increase in top-line and OPM expansion,              Face Value (`)                                  10
 net profit increased by 55.8% to `11cr. The company has expanded its capacity                BSE Sensex                                  18,274
 across products in the recent years. Going ahead, we expect this additional                  Nifty                                        5,481
 capacity to start contributing to sales and drive growth. At the CMP of `108, the            Reuters Code                               SURR.BO
 stock is trading at attractive valuations. We maintain a Buy on the stock.                   Bloomberg Code                             SYR@IN
 Top-line growth below expectations; margins disappoint: Top-line growth at
 20.5% yoy was below our expectations, mainly because of the mere 13.1%                       Shareholding Pattern (%)
 growth in the steel division. The lighting division however, posted strong growth of
                                                                                              Promoters                                     55.0
 34.2%. Margins during the quarter came in below our estimates mainly on
                                                                                              MF / Banks / Indian Fls                       29.0
 account of higher raw material costs.
                                                                                              FII / NRIs / OCBs                              0.5
 Outlook and Valuation: We remain positive on the company’s business outlook
                                                                                              Indian Public / Others                        15.5
 owing to the large capacity expansion and strengthening presence in the lighting
 space. However, given the below-expectation 3QFY2011 performance, we have
 reduced our sales estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 by 5.3% and 2.1% to                        Abs. (%)                       3m    1yr        3yr
 `2,173cr and `2,694cr respectively, while our PAT estimates for FY2011 and                   Sensex                     (10.0)   13.9       0.9
 FY2012 have been pruned by 28.7% and 8.0% to `45cr and `89cr, respectively.                  Surya Roshni                (5.0)   49.2      58.5
 Overall, we expect the company to post strong top-line CAGR of 22.5% and PAT
 CAGR of 40.6% over FY2010-12. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive
 valuations of 6.0x FY2012E EPS. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised
 Target Price of `135 (`143).

 Key Financials (Standalone)
  Y/E March (` cr)                        FY2009        FY2010      FY2011E        FY2012E
  Net Sales                                1,490         1,794        2,173          2,694
  % chg                                     17.1          20.4         21.1           24.0
  Net Profit                                  22            45           45             89
  % chg                                       5.5        109.8         (1.0)          99.7
  EBITDA (%)                                 6.5           7.2          6.6            7.3
  EPS (`)                                     8.3         13.9           9.1          18.1
  P/E (x)                                   13.0            7.7        11.9             6.0
  P/BV (x)                                    1.4           1.4          1.3            1.0
  RoE (%)                                   11.2          19.7         13.2           18.5
  RoCE (%)                                  11.1          12.2         10.9           14.3
  EV/Sales (x)                                0.5           0.5          0.5            0.4   Jai Sharda
                                                                                              022 - 3935 7800 Ext - 6810
  EV/EBITDA (x)                               7.2           7.3          7.1            5.6
                                                                                              jai.sharda@angelbroking.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                                 1
                                                                  Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update



                    Exhibit 1: 3QFY2011 performance (standalone)
                    Y/E March (` cr)          3QFY2011 3QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 9MFY2011 9MFY2010 % chg
                    Net Sales                      597               496          20.5          1,703         1,435     18.7
                    Consumption of RM              439               368          19.4          1,217         1,050     16.0
                    (% of Sales)                  73.5              74.1                         71.5          73.1
                    Staff Costs                       27              24           9.4            79            63      24.4
                    (% of Sales)                      4.5            4.9                          4.6           4.4
                    Other Expenses                    96              75          29.0           307           242      26.4
                    (% of Sales)                  16.1              15.0                         18.0          16.9
                    Total Expenditure              562               467          20.4          1,602         1,355     18.2
                    Operating Profit                  36              29          21.3           100            80      25.8
                    OPM                               6.0            5.9                          5.9           5.6
                    Interest                          15              12          21.9            44            37      17.8
                    Depreciation                       8               7           8.5            25            21      17.8
                    Other Income                       0               0          57.9             1             1       4.9
                    PBT (excl. Extr. Items)           13              10          30.5            33            22      45.8
                    Extr. Income/(Expense)              -              -                            -             -
                    PBT (incl. Extr. Items)           13              10          30.5            33            22      45.8
                    (% of Sales)                      2.2            2.0                          1.9           1.6
                    Provision for Taxation             2               3         (33.2)            6             6      (2.3)
                    (% of PBT)                    14.5              28.4                         18.4          27.4
                    Reported PAT                      11               7          55.8            27            16      64.0
                    PAT Margin                        1.9            1.5                          1.6           1.1
                    FD Equity shares (cr)             4.4            2.8                          2.8           2.6
                    EPS (`)                           2.6            2.6          (0.7)           9.5           6.2     52.6
                    Adjusted PAT                      11               7          55.8            27            16      64.0
                    Source: Company, Angel Research

                    Segment-wise performance

                    Sales of the steel division grew by 13.1% yoy to `365cr, while it declined by 7.4%
                    qoq. EBIT margins of the segment increased to 3.1%, vis-à-vis 2.7% in 3QFY2010.
                    EBIT of the segment came in at `11cr (`9cr).

                    Sales of the lighting division stood at `232cr (`173cr), a yoy growth of 34.2%. The
                    division reported EBIT of `17cr (`14cr), implying EBIT margin of 7.3%, a decline by
                    61bp yoy.

                    Exhibit 2: Segment-wise performance
                    Y/E March (` cr)            3QFY2011 2QFY2011 3QFY2010 % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy)
                    Total Revenue
                    A) Steel Products                   365            394            323           (7.4)             13.1
                    B) Lighting Products                232            203            173           14.4              34.2
                    Net Sales                           597            597            496               0.0           20.5
                    EBIT Margin (%)
                    A) Steel Products                       3.1            2.2            2.7       87bp          37bp
                    B) Lighting Products                    7.3            7.8            7.9      (50bp)        (61bp)
                    Source: Company, Angel Research




February 15, 2011                                                                                                        2
                                                                       Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update



                    Sales growth at a robust 20.5%

                    Surya has been posting steady growth in sales over the past few quarters. For
                    3QFY2011 too, growth came in at a strong 20.5%. However, sales were flat on a
                    qoq basis. Going ahead, we expect sales to register higher growth on the back of
                    a rise in volumes.

                    Exhibit 3: Sales trend

                             700                      Sales (LHS)                yoy Growth (RHS)                              40.0
                                                                                                       597         597         35.0
                             600                        532                                508
                                                                       496                                                     30.0
                                                                                 504
                             500                                                                                               25.0
                                   391       408                                                                               20.0
                             400                                                                                               15.0
                    (` cr)




                                                                                                                                        (%)
                             300                                                                                               10.0
                                                                                                                               5.0
                             200                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                                               (5.0)
                             100
                                                                                                                               (10.0)
                              0                                                                                                (15.0)
                                    4QFY09


                                             1QFY10


                                                         2QFY10


                                                                       3QFY10


                                                                                 4QFY10


                                                                                            1QFY11


                                                                                                       2QFY11


                                                                                                                   3QFY11
                    Source: Company, Angel Research


                    OPM remains flat yoy

                    The company posted a marginal 4bp increase in OPM to 6.0% during 3QFY2011
                    to 6.0%. This was below our expectations mainly on account of higher raw
                    material costs. Going ahead, we expect OPM to increase as sales contribution
                    from the lighting division increases.

                    Exhibit 4: OPM trend
                             60                                   EBITDA (LHS)             OPM (RHS)                            12.0
                                                                                  49
                             50                                                                                                 10.0

                             40                                                                                       36         8.0
                                   31                                                         32         33
                                                                        29
                    (` cr)




                             30                                                                                                  6.0
                                                                                                                                        (%)
                                                        26
                                             24
                             20                                                                                                  4.0

                             10                                                                                                  2.0

                              0                                                                                                  0.0
                                   4QFY09



                                             1QFY10



                                                        2QFY10



                                                                        3QFY10



                                                                                  4QFY10



                                                                                              1QFY11



                                                                                                          2QFY11



                                                                                                                      3QFY11




                    Source: Company, Angel Research

                    PAT comes in at `11cr

                    PAT for the quarter grew by 55.8% owing to the strong increase in top-line and fall
                    in the effective tax rate. Going ahead, we expect PAT to continue on the strong
                    growth trajectory, based on sales growth and OPM expansion.




February 15, 2011                                                                                                                        3
                                                               Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update



                    Exhibit 5: Profit trend

                             35
                                                                          29
                             30
                             25
                             20




                     (`cr)
                             15                                                                      11
                                  10
                             10                                   7                 8
                                                                                             7
                                            4          5
                              5
                              0




                                  4QFY09



                                           1QFY10



                                                      2QFY10



                                                                 3QFY10



                                                                          4QFY10



                                                                                   1QFY11



                                                                                            2QFY11



                                                                                                     3QFY11
                    Source: Company, Angel Research

                    Other Developments

                    Funds raised from the conversion of warrants have been deployed to meet the
                    working capital margin requirements. The conversion of warrants during the
                    previous quarter had triggered an open offer to acquire up to 20% of the
                    outstanding equity of the company. However, the date for the offer had been
                    getting postponed as the company had not been able to get clearance from SEBI.
                    Recently though, the company received SEBI’s approval and would be making the
                    open offer soon. There are still 54.8lakh warrants outstanding. We expect them to
                    be converted into equity shares in FY2012.

                    Investment Arguments
                    Large capacity expansion to lead to high sales growth: Surya Roshni has
                    completed its capacity expansion across products, including capacity increase of
                    358% in compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) and 29% in steel pipes. This is expected
                    to result in high sales CAGR of 22.5% over FY2010-12. Post the substantial capex,
                    sales contribution from the high-RoIC lighting division is expected to increase.
                    Therefore, despite a reduction in net debt-to-equity from 2.5x to 1.1x, the
                    company’s RoE is expected to remain fairly stable at 18.5% in FY2012, declining
                    marginally from 19.7% in FY2010. The company has delivered strong yoy growth
                    of 18.7% in top-line and 64.0% in net profit in 9MFY2011, indicating its strong
                    prospects.

                    Strong brand in the lighting industry: The company has been a household name in
                    the lighting space for over two decades now. It has presence across more than
                    100,000 retail outlets. Surya Roshni has maintained its brand identity through
                    substantial advertisement spend and a strong retail network. In FY2010, the
                    company spent more than `11cr on advertisements, which is 2.0% of its lighting
                    division sales.

                    Promoters hiking their stake: The promoters have subscribed to three rounds of
                    warrant allocations, amounting to a total investment of `193cr. The first was at a
                    `59/share, the second at `83/share and the third at `111/share. The first two
                    tranches have been converted into equity recently, increasing the promoters’ stake




February 15, 2011                                                                                             4
                                                                                                         Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update



                                                   to 55.0% from 24.1%. We expect the third round of warrants to be converted by
                                                   FY2012, which will increase the promoters’ share to 60.0% from 55.0% currently.

                                                   Outlook and Valuation

                                                   We maintain our positive stance on the company’s business prospects owing to the
                                                   large capacity expansion and strengthening presence in the lighting space.
                                                   However, to reflect the below-expectation performance during the quarter, we
                                                   have reduced our sales estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 by 5.3% and 2.1% to
                                                   `2,173cr and `2,694cr respectively, while PAT estimates for FY2011 and FY2012
                                                   have been reduced by 28.7% and 8.0% to `45cr and `89cr, respectively. Overall,
                                                   we expect the company to post strong top-line CAGR of 22.5% and PAT CAGR of
                                                   40.6% over FY2010-12. At the CMP of `108, the stock is trading at attractive
                                                   valuations of 6.0x FY2012E EPS. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised
                                                   Target Price of `135 (`143).


                                                   Exhibit 6: 3QFY2011 results: Actual v/s Estimated
                                                                                                                   Actual          Estimated       Difference (%)
                                                       Sales (` cr)                                                  597                659                   (9.3)
                                                       EBITDA (` cr)                                                    36               47               (25.0)
                                                       OPM (%)                                                          6.0             7.2             (125bp)
                                                       PAT (` cr)                                                       11               21               (47.4)
                                                       Source: Company, Angel Research


Exhibit 7: Key assumptions
                                             FY2011E           FY2012E           Remarks
Capacity Utilisation in Steel Division (%)      75.0                      87.0   Utilisation in newly added capacity to increase in FY2012E
Sales of CFL (` cr)                             325                       388    CFL sales to be backed by market share gain and increase in demand
OPM (%)                                          6.6                       7.3   OPM expansion expected owing to higher contribution from lighting division
Equity (` cr)                                   422                       545    Warrant conversion to result in increase in shareholders' funds
Source: Angel Research


                                                   Exhibit 8: One-year forward P/E band

                                                                         250

                                                                         200
                                                       Share price (`)




                                                                         150

                                                                         100

                                                                         50

                                                                          0
                                                                           Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
                                                                                 Price       2x         4x         6x         8x          10x           12x

                                                       Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research




February 15, 2011                                                                                                                                                 5
                                                   Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update




                    Profit and Loss statement (Standalone)
                    Y/E March (` cr)                FY07     FY08     FY09    FY10    FY11E    FY12E
                    Gross sales                    1,217     1,405    1,609   1,897   2,312    2,866
                    Less: Excise duty                118      133      119     104     139      172
                    Net Sales                      1,099     1,272    1,490   1,794   2,173    2,694
                    Total operating income         1,099     1,272    1,490   1,794   2,173    2,694
                     % chg                           8.6      15.7     17.1    20.4    21.1     24.0
                    Total Expenditure              1,020     1,196    1,392   1,665   2,029    2,497
                    Net Raw Materials                806      953     1,147   1,324   1,606    1,988
                    Other Mfg costs                  164      187      181     253     317      378
                    Personnel                         50        55      64      88     106      132
                    EBITDA                            80        76      97     129     144      197
                     % chg                          (2.8)     (4.3)    27.9    32.1    11.6     36.8
                     (% of Net Sales)                7.2       6.0      6.5     7.2     6.6      7.3
                    Depreciation& Amortisation        27        26      24      27       32      35
                    EBIT                              53        51      74     102     112      162
                     % chg                          (2.5)     (4.7)    45.9    37.7     9.8     45.1
                     (% of Net Sales)                4.8       4.0      5.0     5.7     5.1      6.0
                    Interest & other Charges          31        38      46      49       59      55
                    Other Income                       1        15       1       1        1       1
                     (% of PBT)                      4.6      54.5      2.1     1.6     1.7      0.9
                    Recurring PBT                     23        27      28      54       54     108
                     % chg                         (20.1)     19.8      1.6    92.6     0.2     99.7
                    PBT (reported)                    23        27      28      54       54     108
                    Tax                                8         7       6       9        9      18
                     (% of PBT)                     35.4      25.8     22.9    16.0    17.0     17.0
                    PAT (reported)                    15        20      22      45       45      89
                    ADJ. PAT                          15        20      22      45       45      89
                     % chg                         (20.8)     37.8      5.5   109.8    (1.0)    99.7
                     (% of Net Sales)                1.3       1.6      1.4     2.5     2.1      3.3
                    Basic EPS (`)                    5.7       7.8      8.3    16.2    10.2     18.1
                    Fully Diluted EPS (`)            5.7       7.8      8.3    13.9     9.1     18.1
                     % chg                         (20.8)     37.8      5.5    68.3   (35.0)    99.7




February 15, 2011                                                                                  6
                                                 Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update




                    Balance sheet (Standalone)
                    Y/E March (` cr)              FY07   FY08   FY09   FY10   FY11E   FY12E
                     SOURCES OF FUNDS
                     Equity Share Capital           26    26     26     28      44      49
                     Reserves& Surplus             140   155    172    220     360     493
                     Shareholders Funds            166   181    198    248     404     543
                     Share Warrants                 2      2      2      9      18       2
                     Total Loans                   382   403    440    664     594     594
                     Deferred Tax Liability         49    48     51     56      56      56
                     Total Liabilities             598   633    692    976    1,071   1,194
                     APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                     Gross Block                   605   607    683    829     907     962
                     Less: Acc. Depreciation       311   322    344    369     401     436
                     Net Block                     295   285    339    460     506     526
                     Capital Work-in-Progress       20    31     10     48      20      10
                     Investments                    7       -    16     50      50      50
                     Current Assets                313   358    377    498     573     695
                        Cash                        5      5      9     10      22      17
                        Loans & Advances            26    28     26     28      28      28
                        Other                      281   324    341    460     524     650
                     Current liabilities            36    40     50     80      79      87
                     Net Current Assets            276   318    327    418     495     608
                     Total Assets                  598   633    692    976    1,071   1,194




February 15, 2011                                                                         7
                                                          Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update




                    Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)
                    Y/E March (` cr)                       FY07    FY08   FY09   FY10    FY11E   FY12E
                     Profit before tax                       23     27     28      54      54     108
                     Depreciation                            27     26     24      27      32      35
                     Change in Working Capital              (18)   (42)    (5)    (85)    (65)   (117)
                     Less: Other income                      (0)   (15)    (0)     (0)       -       -
                     Direct taxes paid                       (7)    (8)    (4)    (10)     (9)    (18)
                     Cash Flow from Operations               23    (11)    43     (14)     12       7
                     (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets           (56)   (11)   (57)   (186)    (50)    (45)
                     (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments               0      7    (16)    (34)       -       -
                     (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances      (3)    (2)     2      (2)       -       -
                     Other income                             0     15      0       0        -       -
                     Cash Flow from Investing               (59)     9    (71)   (222)    (50)    (45)
                     Issue of Equity                           -      -   (11)     18     130      46
                     Inc./(Dec.) in loans                    40     21     49     223     (70)       -
                     Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)               (4)    (5)    (5)     (4)    (10)    (12)
                     Others                                  (0)   (15)    (0)     (0)       -       -
                     Cash Flow from Financing                35      2     33     237      50      34
                     Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                     (0)     0      5       1      12      (4)
                     Opening Cash balances                    5      5      5       9      10      22
                     Closing Cash balances                    5      5      9      10      22      17




February 15, 2011                                                                                    8
                                                              Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update




                    Key ratios
                    Y/E March                                  FY07   FY08   FY09   FY10   FY11E   FY12E
                     Valuation Ratio (x)
                     P/E (on FDEPS)                            19.0   13.8   13.0    7.7    11.9     6.0
                     P/CEPS                                     6.8    6.1    6.2    4.8     6.9     4.3
                     P/BV                                       1.7    1.5    1.4    1.4     1.3     1.0
                     EV/Sales                                   0.6    0.5    0.5    0.5     0.5     0.4
                     EV/EBITDA                                  8.2    8.8    7.2    7.3     7.1     5.6
                     Per Share Data (`)
                     EPS (Basic)                                5.7    7.8    8.3   16.2    10.2    18.1
                     EPS (fully diluted)                        5.7    7.8    8.3   13.9     9.1    18.1
                     Cash EPS                                  15.9   17.7   17.4   22.3    15.6    25.1
                     DPS                                        1.5    1.5    1.2    2.0     2.0     2.0
                     Book Value                                64.6   70.4   77.3   79.3    85.5   110.6
                     Dupont Analysis
                     EBIT margin                                4.8    4.0    5.0    5.7     5.1     6.0
                     Tax retention ratio (%)                   64.6   74.2   77.1   84.0    83.0    83.0
                     Asset turnover (x)                         2.1    2.3    2.5    2.3     2.3     2.5
                     ROIC (Post-tax)                            6.6    6.7    9.4   11.1     9.7    12.7
                     Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                    5.6    7.2    8.5    7.4     7.7     7.7
                     Leverage (x)                               2.2    2.2    2.2    2.4     1.8     1.2
                     Operating RoE                              8.9    5.5   11.3   19.7    13.3    18.6
                     Returns (%)
                     RoCE (Pre-tax)                             9.3    8.2   11.1   12.2    10.9    14.3
                     Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)                      10.6    9.4   12.6   13.7    12.2    15.5
                     RoE                                        9.1   11.6   11.2   19.7    13.2    18.5
                     Turnover ratios (x)
                     Asset Turnover (Gross Block)               1.9    2.1    2.3    2.4     2.5     2.9
                     Inventory / Sales (days)                    52    50     47     49      52      52
                     Receivables (days)                          38    37     34     33      36      36
                     Payables (days)                              6     6      5      7       8       8
                     Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)      85    83     78     76      77      74
                     Solvency ratios (x)
                     Net debt to equity                         2.2    2.2    2.1    2.5     1.4     1.1
                     Net debt to EBITDA                         4.7    5.2    4.4    5.1     4.0     2.9
                     Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)        1.7    1.3    1.6    2.1     1.9     2.9




February 15, 2011                                                                                      9
                                                                                          Surya Roshni | 3QFY2011 Result Update




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  Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
  other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
  the past.

  Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
  connection with the use of this information.

  Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
  latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have
  investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                              Surya Roshni
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                  No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                            No
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                Yes
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                       No


  Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors


  Ratings (Returns):              Buy (> 15%)                            Accumulate (5% to 15%)                     Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                  Reduce (-5% to 15%)                    Sell (< -15%)




February 15, 2011                                                                                                                          10

				
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