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                                                                                                                                                                           2009

THE FUTURE OF
CANADA’S TOURiSM SECTOR:

LABOUR SHORTAGES TO RE-EMERGE
AS ECONOMY RECOVERS

Canada’s tourism sector is experiencing a shift towards tighter labour markets
over the medium and long term. As demand for labour in the tourism sector
continues to grow, evidence suggests the supply of labour will have an
increasingly difficult time keeping up. As a result, the challenge of recruiting
and retaining tourism workers will continue to intensify.
The rapid deterioration of economic conditions since the fall                                          However, the potential supply of labour in the tourism sector
of 2008 will substantially ease labour shortages in Canada                                             is projected to grow more slowly over this period, from from
through 2009 and 2010. But once economic conditions start                                              the equivalent of about 635,000 full-year jobs in 2006, to
to improve, rising demand for tourism services will lead to a                                          774,000 by 2025. (Figure 1)
significant imbalance between labour supply and demand.                                                The gap between tourism labour supply and demand in Ontario
By 2025, the potential labour shortage in Ontario’s tourism sector                                     could grow significantly over the long term. By 2025, it could reach
could increase to nearly 98,000 full-year jobs1 left unfilled.                                         49,606 full-year jobs in Toronto, 9,052 in Ottawa, 3,972 in Niagara
                                                                                                       Falls, and 35,273 in the rest of the province. (Figure 2)
Between 2006 and 2025, the potential demand for tourism
labour in the province is expected to grow from 645,000 jobs
to over 872,000.



  Figure 1: Labour Supply in Ontario                                                                      Figure 2: Potential Labour Shortages
350000                                                                                                    50000
                                                                                                                                                          49,606




                                                                                       2025                                                                                                      2025
                                       338,220
                  326,504




                                     323,223




300000
                315,985




                                                                                                          40000
               307,665




                                   303,533
              292,337




                                                                                       2020                                                                                                      2020
             284,658




                               276,071




250000
                                                                                                                                                     36,167
                                                                                                                                 35,273
                             256,025




                                                                                                          30000
                                                                                       2015                                                                                                      2015
200000
                                                                                       2010               20000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010
                                                                                                                                                20,447
                                                                                                                            19,732




150000
                                                                                                                                                                         9,052
                                                                                                                         6,204




                                                                                                                                                                       6,040
                                                                                                                        5,913




                                                                                                                                           4,747




                                                                                                          10000
                                                   69,432




                                                                                                                                                                                      3,972
                                                  66,755
                                                  64,195




                                                                                       2006
                                                                                                                                                                    2,976
                                                                                                                                          2,853




                                                                                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                 60,062




100000
                                                 57,835




                                                                                                                                                                                    1,787
                                                              39,954
                                                              39,156
                                                              38,265




                                                                                                                    -866
                                                              36,909




                                                                                                                                                                   950
                                                                                                                                                                   886
                                                              36,176




                                                                                                                                                                                  -153
                                                                                                                                                                                   490
                                                                                                                                                                                  258




  50000                                                                                                         0

        0                                                                                                -10000       REST OF             TORONTO                   OTTAWA       NIAGARA FALLS
              REST OF        TORONTO             OTTAWA NIAGARA FALLS                                                PROVINCE
             PROVINCE


1 A job is defined as regular work for the period of one year, regardless of whether the job is full-time or part-time. If the work – regardless of the number
  of hours per week – exists for only a fraction of a year, then it only counts as the corresponding fraction of a job
                                                                                                                                                                                 continued flip side
Labour Shortages by industry Group                                            Simply raising wages will not effectively address tourism’s labour
                                                                              challenges, because businesses would be forced to pass on their
While the labour shortage in Ontario’s Accommodation industry                 higher costs to customers, thus stifling overall tourism demand.
is expected to ease between 2006 and 2015, it is forecast to start            Instead, the tourism sector must act collectively to ensure the full
growing again between 2015 and 2025.                                          extent of these shortages does not materialize.
           Labour Shortages in Accommodation
           2006                                         1,785
                                                                              FAST FACTS—Ontario
           2010                      1,063
           2015        468                                                    • Growth in Ontario’s overall labour force is projected to decelerate over
           2020          594                                                    the long term, increasing at an average annual compound rate of 1.5%
                                                                                between 2007 and 2015, then slowing to only 1% between 2016 and 2030.
           2025                                 1,517
                                                                              • By 2025, the province’s tourism sector could see a potential labour
After retreating in 2010, the shortage of labour in Ontario’s Food
                                                                                shortage equivalent to nearly 98,000 full-year jobs left unfilled.
and Beverage Services industry could balloon to 71,476 full-year
jobs by 2025.                                                                 • Shortages are projected to be most acute in the Food and Beverage
           Labour Shortages in Food & Beverage Services                         industry.

           2006      4,858                                                    • By 2025, the supply of tourism labour in Ontario could fall short of
           2010     2,743                                                       demand by 11.2%.
           2015       20,856                                                  • Toronto could experience a labour shortage equivalent to 12.8% of overall
           2020                      45,468                                     tourism labour demand over the next 15 years. The shortage of tourism
           2025                                     71,476                      labour in Ottawa and Niagara Falls during that period could reach 11.5%
                                                                                and 9%, respectively.
The labour shortage in Ontario’s Transportation industry is
projected to increase to 8,251 full-year jobs by 2025.
           Labour Shortages in Transportation
                                                                              FAST FACTS—Canada
                                                                              • The tourism sector in Canada is facing a potential labour shortage of
          2006     466
                                                                                256,669 full-year jobs by 2025.
          2010     524
          2015       2,438                                                    • Shortages are expected to be most acute in the Food and Beverage
          2020                    4,936                                         industry, potentially growing to 172,000 full-year jobs by 2025. Recreation
          2025                                    8,251                         and Entertainment could also see a substantial shortage, at 42,800 full
                                                                                year jobs.
The province’s Recreation and Entertainment industry could                    • The occupations expected to be most affected are Food-Counter
experience a shortage equivalent to 16,654 full-year jobs by 2025.              Attendants and Kitchen Helpers, Food and Beverage Servers, Cooks,
           Labour Shortages in Recreation and Entertainment                     Bartenders, and Program Leaders/Instructors in Recreation and Sport.
          2006     2,665                                                      • Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec are the provinces expected to
          2010 170                                                              see the largest shortfall in tourism labour, in terms of size. However, the
          2015      5,958                                                       Atlantic Provinces are expected to endure the worst shortages, as a
          2020                         12,441                                   percentage of overall labour demand.
          2025                                   16,654
As Ontario’s Travel Services industry continues to adapt to changing          The Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC) works on behalf
consumer needs, it is not expected to see a significant shortage of           of the 174,000 businesses that make up Canada’s vibrant tourism sector.
labour over the long term.                                                    Established in 1993, the CTHRC promotes professionalism throughout
                                                                              the sector and addresses key labour market issues. Collectively, Council
           Labour Shortages in Travel Services                                members and the CTHRC bring together Canadian tourism businesses,
          2006                 202                                            labour unions, associations, educators and governments to co-ordinate
                                                                              human resource development activities and contribute to a sustainable,
          2010                                      421
                                                                              globally competitive tourism sector. The CTHRC also conducts tourism
          2015                                    397                         labour market research on topics such as compensation, return on training
          2020                         287                                    investment, integration of foreign trained workers, sector demographics,
          2025 6                                                              annual labour market survey, and much, more.




ABOUT THiS STUDY
This study represents the 2009 update to the ongoing Tourism Labour           The full report is available on the CTHRC website:
Supply and Demand project, conducted by the Canadian Tourism Human            www.cthrc.ca
Resource Council (CTHRC) and The Conference Board of Canada.                  Summary brochures for Canada and each of the provinces can also be
The study quantifies the implications of long-term demographic and            found at www.cthrc.ca
economic trends on the supply and demand for labour in Canada’s tourism       For more information contact: research@cthrc.ca
sector, and outlines potential labour shortages by industry and occupation,
                                                                              This is a publication of the
as well as by province and sub-provincial regions.
                                                                              Canadian Tourism Human
                                                                              Resource Council


This project is funded by the Government of Canada Sector Council Program

				
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