Maritime Chemical Spill Risk Assessment by hjkuiw354

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    Australia’s National Maritime Chemical Spill Risk Assessment
      Outcomes and Possible Implications for the National Plan
                             Trevor Gilbert - Emergency Response
                             Australian Maritime Safety Authority
                            GPO Box 2181 Canberra City ACT 2601
Abstract

The review of the National Plan to Combat Pollution of the Sea by Oil and Other Noxious and
Hazardous Substances (the National Plan) in 2000, and subsequent work of the National Plan
Chemical Operations Working Group (COWG), highlighted that a wide variety of dangerous
goods and hazardous materials are transported in Australian waters. However, accurate
figures of chemicals transported, shipping routes, location of loading/ unloading and
subsequent spill risk analysis for the National Plan was lacking.

In February 2005, the National Plan Management Committee (NPMC) agreed that a risk
assessment for marine chemical spills in Australian waters should be undertaken as a matter
of urgency. A tender was advertised and Blue Field Consulting (subsequently acquired by
Lloyds Register) was awarded the contract.

The risk analysis focussed only on liquid substances carried in bulk and was based on the
most up to date data available on MARPOL Annex II Category A, B and C noxious liquid
substance (NLS) movements in the Australian EEZ in 2004 and 2005 (Category A substances
being the most hazardous). Category D bulk liquid chemicals were not audited. The project
drew on data from several sources, primarily from 27 individual ports and AMSA’s ship
reporting system (AUSREP).

The final 82 page report was provided by Lloyd’s Register to AMSA in July 2006(1). A
summary of their findings include that:

    •   A total of 61 different chemical tankers were used to transport 65 different A/B/C
        substances through the Australian exclusive economic zone during 2004 and 2005.
        Six of the substances were MARPOL Category A, 27 were Category B and 32 were
        Category C.

    •   A pollution category A-NLS spill/release may be expected to occur in Australian
        waters/ports on average once in 15 years, for category B once in 5 years and category
        C once in 3 years. This represents that a maritime chemical release/spill of an A, B or
        C NLS could occur in Australian waters/ports once in 18 months.

On subsequent analysis by AMSA of the report, raw data provided and trade information
from other government agencies it has been concluded that the potential risk of a maritime
chemical incident in Australian waters could be even greater than that identified by Lloyds.
During the years 2004 and 2005 the consultant identified approximately 1.3 mega tonnes of
MARPOL category A/B/C chemicals imported in bulk into or exported from Australia.
However, the Bureau of Transports and Regional Economics (BTRE) figures for this period,
which include packaged substances and substances not classified as MARPOL Category A, B
or C, identified 13 mega tonnes of hazardous and noxious substances imported/exported to
Australian ports (2). Using these figures, the Lloyd’s Register (LR) risk assessment is based
upon approximately 10% of the combined tonnage of chemicals imported to and exported
from Australian ports.

This paper provides an overview of the risk assessment methodology and findings as well as
the limitations of the study and potential implications for the National Plan.



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Introduction

On 14 June 2007 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Protocol on Preparedness,
Response and Co-operation to Pollution Incidents by Hazardous and Noxious Substances (the
OPRC-HNS Protocol), 2000 will enter into force internationally. Australia acceded to this
convention on 16 March 2005. The OPRC-HNS Protocol is aimed at providing a global
framework for international co-operation in combating major incidents or threats of marine
pollution from ships carrying hazardous and noxious substances (HNS), such as chemicals.

Parties to the OPRC-HNS Protocol will be required to establish measures for dealing with
pollution incidents involving HNS, either nationally or in co-operation with other countries.
Ships will be required to carry a shipboard pollution emergency plan to deal specifically with
incidents involving HNS. The definition for HNS is very broad and is based upon the likely
impact on human health or environmental damage if spilt at sea. In Article 2(2) of the HNS
Protocol, HNS are defined as follows:

        “Hazardous and noxious substances means any substances other than oil
      which, if introduced into the marine environment, is likely to create hazards to
       human health, to living resources and marine life, to damage amenities or to
                       interfere with other legitimate uses of the sea”

Australia’s National Plan provides the framework for responding to pollution incidents in the
marine environment and managing associated funding, equipment and training programs.
Within this framework is the National Marine Chemical Spill Contingency Plan (ChemPlan
Version 2)(3), which outlines how resources from all levels of Government and the chemical,
plastics, shipping and petroleum industries, can be used to respond to the threat of a maritime
chemical spill in Australian ports and waters.

In the National Plan review of 2000, and subsequent work of the National Plan Chemical
Operations Working Group (COWG), it became apparent that a wide variety of dangerous
goods and hazardous materials are transported in Australian waters. However, accurate
figures of chemicals transported, shipping routes, location of loading/ unloading and
subsequent spill risk analysis for the National Plan was not available.

In February 2005, the National Plan Management Committee agreed that a risk assessment
for marine chemical spills in Australian waters be undertaken as a matter of urgency. A
tender was advertised and Blue Field Consulting (subsequently acquired by Lloyds Register)
was awarded the contract with the work being completed in June 2006.


Global Trade in Chemicals and Chemical Tanker Trade

The chemical trade has witnessed a sustained period of growth in recent years with the global
chemical seaborne trade forecasted to rise from 151 million tonnes to 215 million tonnes by
2015 (4). Chemicals constituted $US 1104 billion (10.9% by value) of world trade in 2005
according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)(5).

This growth in the chemical trade is reflected in the demand on existing and future chemical
tanker fleets. Specialist chemical carrier time charter rates have increased by an average of
28% between 2000-2005(4). In response to this increase in demand the chemical carrier fleet is
forecast to increase from 41 million dead weight tonnage (DWT) to 59 million DWT by 2015
with the chemical tanker construction order book currently estimated at 13 million DWT,
which is approximately 39% of the current IMO specification chemical fleet (4).



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Australian Statistics on Trade and Chemicals

Australia’s international and domestic trade represent about 11 percent of the world maritime
trade and 674 million tonnes of cargo moved across Australian wharves during 2004-2005.
For the year 2004 to 2005, the Australian Association Ports and Marine Authorities
(AAPMA) reported 26,440 commercial ship calls to member ports around Australia. The vast
majority of Australia’s trade is in dry bulk commodities (eg iron ore, coal etc) with exports
totalling 605 million tonnes and imports of 69 million tonnes in 2004-2005 (2).

A wide variety of hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) are transported in Australian
waters by ships. Imports of Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) to Australia during the
2004-2005 period was approximately 11 million tonnes, almost 16% of all imports and about
50% of the quantity of crude oil imported into Australia. Approximately 2 million tonnes of
exports of HNS occurred in the same period (2). Table 2 highlights the main commodity
categories imported to Australia in the financial year 2004/05 on a tonnage and percentage
value (2).

                   Table (1) – Main Imported Commodities to Australia (2)

                Main Commodities        Percentage      Millions     Percentage
                    Imported            By Weight        Tonnes       by Value
                 Year 2004-05             Import        Imported      Imported
                                          2004/5         2004/5        2004/5
                 General cargo             24.5           16.9          73.3
                   Crude oil               31.6           21.8           9.0
               Hazardous materials         15.5           10.7           8.9
                     Other                 28.4           19.6           8.8

In the 10 years leading up to 2005 sea imports of HNS into Australia have increased by 4.4 %
per annum by weight and 4.3 % per annum by value (2).

According to the WTO, Australia exported US$4 billion worth of chemicals in 2004 and
US$4.9 in 2005. Australia also imported US$12 billion worth of chemicals in 2004, which
increased to US$13.5 in 2005. This exceeded in value fuels imported to Australia, which
approximated to US$13.1 billion in 2005 (5).


Shipping Accidents Involving Chemical Tankers

Accidents involving the release of HNS from ships are varied but can be classified into the
following main categories for risk analysis:

    •   Collision or contact (open sea);
    •   Collision striking or impact (ports);
    •   Powered or un-powered groundings;
    •   Foundering;
    •   Fire/explosion;
    •   Equipment failure, and
    •   Cargo transfer.

In the decade from 1989 to 1998, there were 220 worldwide vessel casualties involving
chemical tankers, i.e. 22 casualties per year (6). During this time 105 of these ship casualties
involved gas carriers i.e. 10.5 on average per year (6).




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A recent IMO study on product and chemical tankers by an expert working group estimated
that between 1990 and 2005, 3231 accidents occurred worldwide taking 560 mariners lives.
This is an average of 215 accidents (37 lives) per annum (7).

Equipment failure and explosions on gas tankers and chemical tankers accounted for the
largest proportion of the casualties (48% chemical and 41% of gas tankers) (6).


Scope of Lloyds Register Risk Assessment

In 2006, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) on behalf of the National Plan
engaged Lloyd’s Register (LR) to:

        • Obtain / collate information on the type and quantity of MARPOL
        pollution category A, B and C noxious liquid substances (A/B/C-NLSs)
        transported in bulk tankers within the Australian Exclusive Economic
        Zone (AEEZ); and

        • Undertake an analysis of the risks to the marine environment due to
        spills /releases of bulk A/B/C-NLSs in the AEEZ.

The risk analysis was based on the most up-to-date available data on bulk movements of
A/B/C-NLSs through the AEEZ during 2004 and 2005. Data was obtained from 27 individual
port authorities and AMSA’s ship reporting (AUSREP) system. This data was supplemented
by data on ship characteristics from LR’s ClassDirect system, data on the properties of
noxious liquid substances and environmental data from the Oil Spill Resource Atlas (OSRA)
maintained as part of Australia’s National Plan.


Risk Methodology

The approach taken by LR for the risk analysis involved several steps.

    1. Consultation was held with relevant stakeholders at the start of the project
       to seek advice on the best way to proceed with the data acquisition step.

    2. Acquiring and analyzing information on chemical tanker movements and
       routes through the AEEZ. This included determining the types and
       quantities of bulk NLSs carried on these vessels and ports where loading or
       offloading of bulk NLSs occurred.

    3. Development of a risk model and presentation of the risk results using a
       geographic information system (GIS). This required additional data
       acquisition and analysis so as to determine the likelihood of bulk NLS
       spills (based on historical data) and to map areas of varying environmental
       sensitivity.

Progress reports were also made to AMSA throughout the project.

It is important to note that LR could not identify one single source that would provide all of
the required information for the risk analysis on routes, chemicals types and quantities
transported by ship in Australian waters.




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Risk Analysis – Major Steps

The LR risk analysis involved the following major steps (1):

    •   Consequence Analysis;
    •   Environmental Sensitivity Analysis;
    •   Frequency and Likelihood Analysis;
    •   Presentation of Risk Results.

The major steps involved in the risk assessment included (1):

    1. The base map and location / type of environmentally sensitive areas were extracted
       from the National Plan geographic information system (GIS) based Oil Spill
       Resource Atlas (OSRA).

    2. A 30-minute grid (which corresponds to an approximate 50 km x 50 km grid) was
       then overlaid onto the base map. Approximately 6000 individual grid cells were used
       in the analysis.

    3. Each of the specific environmentally sensitive areas (e.g. coral reef, mangroves, etc.)
       was assigned a rating up to 25.

    4. Vessel information from an Excel spreadsheet was added to the GIS.

            The spreadsheet included the following data for each vessel:
            • Location (viz. Longitude and latitude at date / time).
            • Call sign (A unique vessel identifier).
            • Vessel details (Type, DWT, etc.)
            • Voyage number (A unique voyage identifier).
            • Cargo (Name, quantity and pollution category) at location.
            • Effect distances (D) for various spill / release quantities.
            • Likelihood (L) of various spill / release quantities.
            • Material factor (MF) for each cargo.

    5. Having identified the location of each vessel and its cargo, the effect distance was
       mapped for each voyage.

    6. Up to five spill sizes were modeled for each NLS on each vessel. The number of spill
       sizes modeled is dependent on the vessel size (DWT) and total inventory of each NLS
       on board the vessel.

    7. A Risk Index was calculated and assigned for each grid cell in the GIS.


Results of Lloyds Register Risk Analysis

The LR review identified approximately 2.54 million tonnes of A/B/C NLSs imported and
exported from Australian ports with 593 vessel visits over a two-year period between 2004
and 2005. On average 1.27 million tonnes per annum and 297 vessel visits. On a state basis
the imports and exports are detailed in Table (2)




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      Table (2) Imports and Exports of A/B/C NLSs for Australian States 2004/2005 (1).

               Vessel        Vessel       Imports       Imports      Exports       Exports
   State     Visits 2004   Visits 2005    Tonnes        Tonnes       Tonnes        Tonnes
                                           2004          2005         2004          2005
  NSW            106          107         254754        244199        87855         79887
   NT             0            0             0             0            0             0
  WA             17           27           77599        195678        23982         6296
   SA            16            6           21166         17984        37173         15119
  QLD             33           27         146446        167618          0             0
  TAS             47           50            0             0         345078        354734
  VIC             86           71         244353        204327        9117          7890
 TOTAL           305          288         744318        829806       503205        463926

A total of 61 different chemical tankers were used to transport 65 different A/B/C NLSs
through the AEEZ during 2004 and 2005. This included over 800 port visits, with each vessel
travelling an average of approximately 3,000 km per voyage. Chemical, or parcel, tankers can
vary in size and carry a variety of chemicals, as well as vegetable/animal oils and other
specialty liquids, in 10-60 separate cargo tanks. During 2004-2005, the chemical tankers
within the AEEZ ranged in size from approximately 5,000 to 47,000 DWT.

Six of the noxious liquid substances were Category A, 27 were Category B and 32 were
Category C. The dispersion behaviour of each NLS was modeled as a substance that will
float, dissolve or sink.

This study has found that a pollution category A/B/C-NLS spill / release may be expected to
occur in Australian waters / ports approximately once in 18 months. The overall relative risk
of a spill / release of an A/B/C-NLS for 2005 is shown in figure 1.

  Figure 1. Cumulative Risk Index for Year 2005 for MARPOL Category A/B/C NLSs (1).




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The highest risk areas for A/B/C-NLS spills / releases during 2005 were located:
   • Near Sydney and Port Kembla in NSW; and
   • Near Port Phillip Bay to Wilsons Promontory in Victoria.

The highest risk locations generally occur along parts of the South Australia / Victoria / NSW
/ Queensland coasts (Generally from Port Pirie in South Australia to Gladstone in
Queensland) and near Hobart in Tasmania (1).

The next highest risk locations include sections of the Queensland coast (from Gladstone to
Townsville), the eastern coast of Tasmania and the Western Australian coast (from Albany to
Perth) (1).

Category A NLS Risk Summary

A pollution category A-NLS spill / release may be expected to occur in Australian waters /
ports on average once in 15 years. The overall relative risk of a spill / release of a pollution
category A-NLS is mapped on Figure 2 (1).

     Figure 2. Cumulative Risk Index for Year 2005 for MARPOL Category A NLSs (1).




The highest risk areas for category A-NLS spills / releases during 2005 were located:
   • Near Newcastle, Sydney and Port Kembla in NSW;
   • Near Portland and Wilsons Promontory in Victoria; and
   • Near Kangaroo Island in South Australia.

The main bulk category A NLS identified in the LR study includes coal tar, creosote, solvesso
formulations and nonylphenol. (1)




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Category B NLS Risk Summary

A pollution category B-NLS spill / release may be expected to occur in Australian waters /
ports on average once in 5 years. The majority of the potential spills/releases were determined
to occur along the southern and eastern coast of Australia (predominantly from Melbourne
through to Brisbane).

The main bulk category B NLS identified in the LR study includes butyl acrylate, white spirit,
turpentine and styrene monomer.

The overall relative risk of a spill / release of a pollution category B-NLS is mapped on
Figure 3. The highest risk areas for category B-NLS spills / releases during 2005 were located
near Port Phillip Bay in Victoria (1).

     Figure 3. Cumulative Risk Index for Year 2005 for MARPOL Category B NLSs (1).




Category C NLS Risk Summary

A pollution category C-NLS spill / release may be expected to occur in Australian waters /
ports on average once in 3 years. The majority of the potential spills/releases were determined
to occur along the southern and eastern coast of Australia (predominantly from Port Pirie
through to Brisbane) and along the eastern coast of Tasmania and the main bulk category C
NLS identified in the LR study includes sulphuric acid, benzene, vinyl acetate, toluene
diisocyanate (TDI) and propylene oxide. (1)

The overall relative risk of a spill / release of a pollution category C-NLS is mapped on
Figure 4. The highest risk areas for category C-NLS spills / releases during 2005 were located
near Port Phillip Bay and Phillip Island in Victoria (1).




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     Figure 4. Cumulative Risk Index for Year 2005 for MARPOL Category C NLSs (1).




In summary the LR risk assessment concluded that a pollution category A-NLS spill/release
may be expected to occur in Australian waters/ports on average once in 15 years, for category
B on average once in 5 years and category C on average once in 3 years. This represents that
a maritime chemical release/spill of an A, B or C NLS could occur in Australian waters/ports
on average once in 18 months (1).

In noting the above outcomes, it is nevertheless important to recognise the limitations of the
risk analysis and data collated.


Limitation of Chemical Trade Data Collated

The Lloyds Register risk assessment team indicated that the task was not only very ambitious
for the time and resources allocated but the data acquisition phase was the most problematic
of the study. Unfortunately some ports did not provide data to the team and others figures
provided were incomplete, therefore total estimates of chemicals provided are an
underestimation.

As mentioned previously, the LR risk assessment examined only A/B/C NLS imports and
exports to Australia. It is also recognised that the study did not examine category “D” bulk
liquids, which accounts for the largest number of bulk liquid chemicals, approximately 32%.
This study also did not address solids, gases or packaged chemicals.

To ascertain the contribution of the A/B/C/ NLS, AMSA compared the quantities of imports
and exports determined by this study with BTRE data on quantities for all HNS imported and
exported, which includes category D NLS, solids, gases and packaged chemicals. The Lloyds
Register risk assessment identified 0.74 and 0.83 million tonnes of NLS imported to Australia
for the years 2004 and 2005 respectively; whereas BTRE shipping figures (2) indicate 11 mega
tonnes of HNS were imported in the 04/05 financial period. Exported A/B/C NLS determined


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by the Lloyds risk assessment was estimated at 0.5 million tonnes on average per annum, yet
the BTRE study indicates 2 million tonnes of HNS are exported on a yearly basis from
Australian ports.

Using a summation of both imports to, and exports from, Australian ports this risk assessment
has provided an estimate of 1.3 million tonnes of A/B/C NLS per annum during the study
period. The BTRE figures indicate a combined annual import/export of HNS are estimated at
13 million tonnes this amounts to ten times the quantities of A/B/C NLSs identified by this
Lloyds Register study, figure 5.


 Figure 5. Comparison of Chemical Trade Data for Australian Ports LR (1) and BTRE Data (2)


                          Chemical Trade Australian Ports
                                       (Million Tonnes)


           14
                                                                           13
                                                     11
           12

           10

            8

            6

            4                                                    2
                   0.83                  1.33
            2                  0.5
            0
                Imports Exports       Total      Imports Exports       Total

                LR Risk Assessment 2005              BTRE 04/05 Fin. Yr



Queensland government statistics for the total throughput in Queensland ports highlights 3.1
millions tonnes of “chemicals” imported/exported for the 2005 calendar year (8). This is
almost 3 times the A/B/C NLSs identified for all Australian ports.

Major growths in chemicals identified by the author included the increases in imports of bulk
liquid sodium hydroxide (caustic soda), which grew 61% from 2004 with Gladstone alone
importing 1.15 million tonnes in 2005 to service the expanding alumina refineries of QAL
and Comalco (8,9).

Caustic soda is a MARPOL “D” category chemical so was not included in the LR risk review.
As Australia is the world’s single largest producer of alumina, with 27% of the global
production, this is a significant chemical commodity imported. Heated caustic soda is used to
digest bauxite to produce alumina the starting product of the manufacture of aluminium
metal. Australia is the world’s largest importer of caustic soda primarily for the aluminium
and pulp/paper production industries with international trade meeting approximately 90% of
our needs (10). Imports of bulk liquid caustic soda to Australia could amount to over 3 million
tonnes per annum currently. The ports of Gladstone, Bunbury, Fremantle and Gove are major
terminals for caustic imports, with the rate of importation likely to increase with the
expansion of the alumina industries. From statistics provided by port authorities,



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approximately 1 million tonnes of concentrated liquid sodium hydroxide (caustic soda) are
imported to Bunbury and 1.1 million tonnes into Gladstone each year. (Figure 6)


            Figure 6. Imports of Bulk Liquid Caustic Soda For Ports During 2005


                      Bulk Liquid Caustic Soda Imports 2005
                                      (Tonnes x 1000)


           1200
                                                        1150
           1000        1050

            800

            600
                                                                      600
                                       530
            400

            200

              0
                    Bunbury        Fremantle        Gladstone      Gove

                                          Ports 2005




Reclassification of International Bulk Chemical Code

On January 1 2007 a significant change occurred in the classification of chemicals under the
International Bulk Chemical Code (MARPOL Annex II). Categories A/B/C and D no longer
exist with changes to X, Y, Z and “Other Substances” categories. While most substances
remain in the equivalent new X, Y or Z Category, there has been some reclassification of
chemicals to higher or lower pollution categories. (Appendix 1)

As a result of this it will be necessary to revisit the chemical listing within the LR risk
assessment in regard to the new IMO Annex II bulk NLS classification.


Growth in Australian Chemical Trade

As discussed previously the growth in the international chemical trade is expanding rapidly
and the Australian chemical shipping trade (US$13.5 billion for 2005) is no exception (4,5). In
the 10 years prior to 2005, sea imports of HNS to Australia have increased by 4.4 % per
annum by weight (2). Trade in chemicals and related products are a dynamic industry
demonstrated by the growth in Queensland ports, which grew 27.3% from 2004 to 2005 (8).

The Terms of Reference for this risk assessment did not include what appear to be the growth
areas in chemical trade- category D bulk liquids, chemical gases and packaged goods under
International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code (IMDG).

A significant increase in bulk liquid anhydrous ammonia imports has occurred in the last few
years. Gladstone port documented 98,500 tonnes of liquid ammonia imports in 2005, which
rose to 120,000 in 2006 (9). Currently 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes per month of ammonia is being
exported from the port of Dampier, which approximates to 600,000 to 720,000 tonnes of


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liquid ammonia per annum. Ammonia is a toxic gas and can be used for the production of
many chemical products including ammonium nitrate, which is seeing a massive expansion in
production in Australia to satisfy the mining explosive industry.

Other industrial chemicals imports and exports are increasing in Australia. Fremantle port
web site indicates that for 2004/05 284,000 tonnes of chemicals and related products were
imported in addition to the 525,000 tonnes of liquid caustic soda. Brisbane port reported 220,
700 tonnes of industrial chemicals imported in the year 2005 along with 203,000 tonnes or
rural chemicals and 248,500 tonnes of fertilisers (8).

Other growth areas include chemicals for the mining industry, biofuels, transport fuel
additives and related products for example methanol, ethanol, potassium hydroxide, vegetable
oils (eg palm oil) for the food and biodiesel manufacturing.


Limitation of the Risk Analysis – Where to now.

It is recognised by COWG and AMSA that the LR risk assessment is only the first stage of
the chemical risk assessment strategy. The methodology is robust and it is an excellent start
and offers sound direction for future risk assessment. Currently this review provides only a
snap shot of the bulk A/B/C NLS chemical shipping trade and associated risks and requires a
second stage to address the other 90% of HNS transported and traded to Australian ports.

In assessing the study, the author, COWG and LR have identified some limitations, which
include:

Chemical Data

Gaps in the chemical types and quantities transported by sea to Australian ports are an
important issue to address. This includes:

    •   A major issue faced in the LR risk analysis was the “chemicals in transit”, i.e.
        chemicals on board vessels that were in transit around the coast and not being loaded
        or unloaded at an Australia port. Only some ports required vessels to report or logged
        these chemicals in the course of normal port records management. Lloyds Register
        devised an algorithm to back calculate in-transit data, however, the process would be
        simplified significantly if port authorities logged this data.

    •   Only 10% of the chemical trade to and from Australia has been identified so far by
        the LR study. Other HNS cargoes quantities, routes and ports of call need to be
        determined including other bulk liquids, bulk gases and bulk solid HNS.
        Containerised HNS cargoes, intermediate bulk containers (IBCs) and packaged
        chemicals covered by IMDG code also need to be addressed.

    •   The review needs to be revisited to address the change in cargoes designation based
        upon the new “X, Y, Z and Other Substances” categorisation under MARPOL Annex
        II.


Vessel reporting and shipping routes.

The LR team identified that daily vessel positions reported in the AUSREP system does not
always provide accurate route and course information. Data in the REEFREP system provides




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significantly greater route and course data and with the implementation of ship borne
Automatic Identification System (AIS) this should improve dramatically.

Lloyds Register devised an algorithm to correct ship routes where a straight line between
consecutive AUSREP or REEFREP points showed a vessel crossing land; however, there are
of course limitations introduced by the assumptions made by the algorithm. With improved
route and ship course data provided by AIS the analysis grid can be refined.


Historical chemical spill data.

There was a noticeable lack of historical data on chemical spills in the National Plan spill
records database held by AMSA.

It appears a lack of consistent national reporting of ship sourced chemical spills or incidents
have lead to an under-reporting of marine chemical spills compared to oil and fuel spills by
National Plan stakeholders. There is also limited statistics on “near misses”, which may have
lead to chemical releases or spills from ships.


Model Limitations and Improvements

While the LR risk review uses sound risk assessment methodology, it is limited somewhat by
the available data and consequence modelling. Consequence analysis requires a good
appreciation of the behaviour of chemicals when spilt/released from ships and the
movement/dispersion in air and water using computer modelling. This requires accurate
hydrodynamic and chemical plume models under realistic scenarios along with seasonal
winds and other meteorological factors. This modelling was not available to the LR team who
used elementary proximity consequence analysis in their report.

The GIS based data risk assessment approach provided by LR is a major step forward for the
National Plan, although the underlying datasets need to be reviewed and updated periodically.
As new HNS cargo data, route information, environmental sensitivity ratings, and historic
incident analyses are obtained, the GIS can be updated and risk profiles rerun for realistic
bulk chemical release scenarios around the Australian coast.


Follow-up Actions by the National Plan

The National Plan has agreed that workshops be carried out in each jurisdiction with key
National Plan stakeholders to examine the information provided by this study and address any
deficiencies and examine possible response options for the major chemicals identified.
Participants should include port representatives, chemical experts, Fire Brigade/Hazardous
Materials (HazMat) response agencies and relevant State/NT marine combat and statutory
authorities.

It has been determined by COWG that the National Plan needs to obtain the capacity to model
chemical plumes in the marine environment and, together with the existing OSRA
environmental resource data, provide a better understanding of the consequences of any HNS
release from ships at a designated location.

COWG and subsequently NPOG have recommended that stage two of the risk assessment be
carried out to cover bulk solids, gases and packaged substances, and that the National Plan
should revisit the analysis every 5 years. At the time of writing, the National Plan
Management Committee was due to consider these recommendations.


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CONCLUSION

The LR chemical spill risk analysis determined that a pollution category A-NLS spill/release
may be expected to occur in Australian waters/ports on average once in 15 years, for category
B on average once in 5 years and category C on average once in 3 years. This represents that
a maritime chemical release/spill of an A, B or C NLS could occur in Australian waters/ports
on average once in 18 months.

On subsequent analysis by AMSA of the report, data provided by LR and trade information
from other government agencies it has been concluded that the potential risk of a maritime
chemical incident in Australian waters could be even greater than that identified by the LR
review with only 10% of the tonnage of HNS throughput in Australian ports being identified
in the risk assessment.

Limitations of the LR review have been examined by COWG and AMSA and various actions
are being progressed to address these limitations to provide a refined assessment of the risk of
a HNS spill or incident in Australian waters and ports.

The National Plan has decided to obtain a chemical plume modelling capability, and each
jurisdiction will hold workshops to examine possible response options in the context of the
Chemical Spill Contingency Plan.



References

1. Lloyd’s Register 2006, Final report- Risk Analysis of Bulk Chemical Spills in Australian
   Ports and Waters. Report to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority. July 2006, pp82.

2. BTRE 2005. Waterline Issue 39, September 2005. Published by Bureau of Transport and
   Regional Economics, Dept. of Transport and Regional Services http://www.btre.gov.au

3. AMSA (June 2005). National Marine Chemical Spill Contingency Plan (ChemPlan V2)
   http://www.amsa.gov.au/Marine_Environment_Protection/National_Plan/Contingency_Pl
   ans_and_Management/Chemical_Spill_Contingency_Plan.asp

4. Ocean Shipping Consultants 2006 “Major Changes Ahead for the Chemical and Product
   Tanker Fleets.” Ships and Shipping July 2006 p33.

5. World Trade Organisation Table IV.35 and Chart IV.1 http://stat.wto.org

6. Safetec 2001. Chemical Spill Risk Assessment. Report to UK Maritime and Coastguard
   Agency No. 447 May 2001 #ST-8604-RA-1

7. IMO, December 2006 FP 51/10/1 Analysis of Fire Casualty Records Report to the IMO
   Committee on Fire Protection 51st Session.

8. Queensland Port Trade Statistical Report 2005, Published 2006
   http:/www.transport.qld.gov.au/home/industry/ports/trade_statistics

9. Central Queensland Port Authority 2007, http://www.cqpa.com.au

10. Gobi International 2007, Global World Business Information
    http://www.gobi.co.uk/pdfs/Soda.pdf



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                               SpillCon 2007 Perth Australia

Appendix 1. New Revise Annex II Bulk NLS Classification in Force 1 January 2007

Category X:
Noxious Liquid Substances which, if discharged into the sea from tank cleaning or
deballasting operations, are deemed to present a major hazard to either marine resources or
human health and, therefore, justify the prohibition of the discharge into the marine
environment

Category Y:
Noxious Liquid Substances which, if discharged into the sea from tank cleaning or
deballasting operations, are deemed to present a hazard to either marine resources or human
health or cause harm to amenities or other legitimate uses of the sea and therefore justify a
limitation on the quality and quantity of the discharge into the marine environment;

Category Z:
Noxious Liquid Substances which, if discharged into the sea from tank cleaning or
deballasting operations, are deemed to present a minor hazard to either marine resources or
human health and therefore justify less stringent restrictions on the quality and quantity of the
discharge into the marine environment; and

Other Substances:
Substances which have been evaluated and found to fall outside Categories X, Y or Z because
they are considered to present no harm to marine resources, human health, amenities or other
legitimate uses of the sea when discharged into the sea from tank cleaning of deballasting
operations. The discharge of bilge or ballast water or other residues or mixtures containing
these substances are not subject to any discharge requirements of MARPOL Annex II.

Ref.
http://www.imo.org/home.asp?topic_id=236




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