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FROM THE G8 TO THE G20 — O
TO MUSKOKA, VIA THE UN USK K
M
A
Jeremy Kinsman
As the G8 morphs into the G20 in Muskoka, Ontario, next year, questions arise
about Canada’s role on this broader summit stage. As Contributing Writer Jeremy
Kinsman notes: “It is widely assumed that Canadian influence and prominence on 2010
the world stage will necessarily shrink” with the arrival of emerging global players,
including China, India and Brazil. But Kinsman also observes that “much of
Canada’s connectedness has to do with international civil society, NGOs and
research webs.” Next year, Canada has “a special opportunity to make a crucial
difference,” as host and co-chair of the Muskoka summit, and as a candidate for
membership on the UN Security Council.
La transformation du G8 en G20, qui prendra effet l'an prochain à Muskoka,
soulève des questions sur le rôle du Canada au sein de ce sommet élargi.
Comme le note Jeremy Kinsman : « On s'entend généralement pour prévoir un
recul de l'influence et de l'importance du Canada sur l'échiquier mondial » avec
l'arrivée de nations émergentes comme la Chine, l'Inde et le Brésil. Mais « une
grande partie du rayonnement du Canada relève de la société civile, des ONG
et des réseaux de recherche », observe aussi notre collaborateur. Si bien que le
Canada jouira l’an prochain d'une réelle occasion de renforcer son rôle à titre de
coprésident du sommet de Muskoka et de candidat au Conseil de sécurité de
l'ONU.
N
o less a personage than Henry Kissinger has said century” in Foreign Affairs. She quoted psychologist Carol
that 2009 would be the year the world finds new Gilligan, who almost 30 years ago wrote about “differences
ways to manage complex transborder problems between the genders in their modes of thinking. She
that affect us all, by making emerging and important new observed that men tend to see the world as made up of hier-
players on the international scene part of the solution. archies of power and seek to get to the top, whereas women
The developed countries that have dictated the rules tend to see the world as containing webs of relationships
since the creation of the postwar international system now and seek to move to the center.”
recognize the decisive shift of power to a host of emerging Slaughter observes that “the two lenses she identified
economies that insist on political representation. The old capture the differences between the twentieth-century and
establishment clings to the vain hope that just enlarging the twenty-first-century.”
club membership will be enough, and that everybody will This changed, more crowded, more complex and yet
still play by the old club’s rules, recalling the observation of more diffuse 21st-century landscape imposes stark chal-
Principe Don Fabrizio in Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa’s lenges for Canada. It is widely assumed that Canadian influ-
The Leopard, about the advent of democracy in 19th-century ence and prominence on the world stage will necessarily
Sicily, “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have shrink, helped along by a Canadian government uninterest-
to change.” ed in very much about the outside world.
More has to change than the establishment thinks. But an alternative scenario can see the new landscape
China, India, Brazil and Mexico won’t be appeased by just a favouring Canada. If Canada can repossess and reinvigorate
seat at the table. We all have to be prepared to listen and, its talents and capacity for international diplomacy, it can
when possible, act. move to the centre of the global web and become a go-to
But we shall need to act differently. Anne-Marie country in the search for new ways of resolving vexing inter-
Slaughter (now in charge of policy planning in the US State national issues. Slaughter emphasizes that “in this world, the
Department) recently wrote about “power in the networked measure of power is connectedness.” Much of Canada’s con-
POLICY OPTIONS 49
NOVEMBER 2009
Jeremy Kinsman
nectedness has to do with internation- made to work on major issues of inter-
informally point to officials as the
al civil society, NGOs and research national peace and security. It is no
stumbling block. Off the record, offi-
webs. Canada had a lot of experience a coincidence that Obama personally
cials finger the PM himself as being the
decade ago working with NGO net- chaired a UNSC session during the
leading G20 skeptic.
works supporting a land-mines con- September heads-of-government sit-
The question is now academic,
vention and other successful human ting of the General Assembly. If he suc-
although the Canadian side still sug-
security initiatives. It is time to draw ceeds in its revalidation, the Security
gests that as economic questions
again from the networks to get civil Council could re-emerge as the locale
migrate to the G20, the G8 will retain
society’s takes on the decisive issues of legitimacy for decision-making on
an afterlife as a separate entity, possi-
confronting the world today. peace and security issues, as the UN
bly for international peace and securi-
Charter intended. Only
Much of Canada’s connectedness has to do with international briefly, at the end of the
civil society, NGOs and research webs. Canada had a lot of Cold War, has the Security
experience a decade ago working with NGO networks Council been able to fulfill
this role with anything like
supporting a land mines convention and other successful effectiveness.
human security initiatives. It is time to draw again from the
networks to get civil society’s takes on the decisive issues
confronting the world today. O ver time, in the UN’s
65 years of existence,
its capacity to deliver peace
Next year offers Canada a special ty issues on which the democratically and security has been pretty pathetic,
opportunity to make a crucial differ- and financially like-minded G8 coun- largely because it was stymied by Cold
ence. The new G20 for economic tries, even with Russia’s Potemkin War divisions and vetoes blocking
issues will have a sort of proxy democracy, are more apt to be able to decisive action on most issues. But
Canadian co-chairmanship in 2010. reach consensus than are the G20. On during a few years at the end of the
And Canada is seeking election next democracy, the G20 has unequivocally Cold War, the USSR/Russia cooperated
year to the United Nations Security non-like-minded members such as with the US, France and the United
Council (UNSC). China and Saudi Arabia, as well as sev- Kingdom to make the system work as
These pages have carried a debate eral other countries, such as India, the Charter had intended, on such
over scrapping the summits of G8 Mexico and South Africa, that, because issues as authorizing a UN coalition to
countries in favour of the G20, which of a past history of interference in their oust Saddam Hussein from Kuwait,
was in fact Paul Martin’s proposal. affairs, are quite emphatic on issues of with China remaining noncommittal
That debate has now been overtaken national sovereignty, making it unlike- but generally unopposed. President
by the agreement at the G20 summit ly that the G20 will reach consensus Obama’s plan relies on the success of
in Pittsburgh in September to absorb on invasive issues like tougher targeted his hopes that by engaging the
the G8, beginning with the G8 that sanctions on Myanmar or Iran. Chinese and Russians strategically, he
Canada is scheduled to host in 2010, But the G8 won’t be saved for can persuade them to transit again
in Toronto’s pleasant Muskoka cottage peace and security issues. Indeed, it is from a spoiler role to one of creative
country. It will probably be the last G8 unlikely to survive at all, because its collaboration in a cooperative
summit, a warm-up and sideshow to added value isn’t sufficiently apparent approach to international peace and
the G20 under Korean chairmanship, to keep it on the world leaders’ already security.
which Stephen Harper will somehow overbooked travel itinerary. Only its The quid pro quo will be the need
co-administer, also to take place in most marginal members, Canada and for that approach to take more
Canada as the transition occurs. Italy, really seemed to care. Japan account of the multiple perspectives of
argued against the G20 just to keep a more polycentric world.
T he present Canadian government
has been dragged into this, if not
kicking and screaming, at least with
regional rival China out of the main-
stream of world discussion, but that
game is over.
The council needs also to broaden
its traditional mandate. International
security is no longer considered to be
whimpers of protective unhappiness. Prime Minister Harper doesn’t just a matter of peace or war, of mili-
There are a stable of officials for whom seem very attracted to the United tary conflict between states. Nonstate
G8 membership confers a clubby Nations, but President Barack Obama, actors are as much a threat to interna-
exclusivity. They like operating in a in a transfer of traditional roles, has tional peace and security as states are
heavier weight class than the numeric higher hopes than his predecessor, themselves. Transnational threats such
values of our economy would merit. George W. Bush, or Canadian as natural disasters, drug trafficking,
Staffers in the Prime Minister’s Office Conservatives that the UNSC can be climate change, economic underdevel-
50 OPTIONS POLITIQUES
NOVEMBRE 2009
From the G8 to the G20 — to Muskoka, via the UN
Jason Ransom, PMO
Prime Minister Harper and President Obama have a word during the Pittsburgh Summit in September, while Laureen Harper and
Michelle Obama share their own thoughts. At Muskoka next year, the G8 will be expanded to the G20.
opment, migration and desertification ers” (which are also the original such as Italy, are equally unrealistic in
all affect human security and the secu- nuclear weapons states), and rotating their membership ambitions. Reform,
rity of states. For violence within two-year memberships for 10 others, therefore, has been impossible to
states, the Canadian-led Responsibility nominated by regional groups or, if a achieve, as every formula for change
to Protect initiative empowers the group fails to reach agreement, elected offends the interests of some important
council in principle to authorize inter- by all states that are members of the UN clients. So we are apt to be stuck
national intervention within a single UN. The “others” obviously include with what we have for some time.
state in cases of apparent genocide and several of the emerging countries that The key to making the existing
mass atrocity. the G20 has been created to accommo- UNSC effectively responsible is likely
But agreement on a broader man- date on economic issues, as well as still to be found in searching for con-
date is hindered by the inability to Germany and Japan. All take badly the sensus among the P5. But what the
resolve the tortured question of outdated and unmerited special status council has to do, if it can’t reform its
expanding the Security Council’s of France and Britain. In a sane system, membership, is find a way to consult
membership. France and Britain would be negotiated systematically with key nonmembers,
The Security Council’s member- downward and others upward but in to open up a process that P5 members
ship is ludicrously archaic, with perma- an attitude that is frankly scandalous, have historically kept to themselves.
nent memberships and vetoes for the the two once-colonial powers refuse to This has been an enduring
P5, the five Second World War “pow- diminish their prerogatives. Others, Canadian preoccupation every time
POLICY OPTIONS 51
NOVEMBER 2009
Jeremy Kinsman
we have served on the council, rough- But the opportunity costs prevent- revived priorities for which Canada
ly for one two-year term each decade ing other deployments within the UN had long been an active proponent.
since the UN’s founding, a frequency and even many diplomatic initiatives Our credentials as a country that
we and the world found fitting because elsewhere will diminish as we stopped deploying nuclear weapons
our contributions and beliefs matched approach the end of Canada’s combat are impeccable, but we have left the
our participation. role in 2011. field to others.
Can we make that case today? There is a host of other issues on The UN’s capacity to intervene to
There appears to be a consensus which to rebuild the Canadian reputa- halt mass atrocities under the
among the commentariat in Canada tion for serious engagement to pro- Responsibility to Protect title that
that the Harper government has mote international peace and security. Canada laboured long and hard to
shrunk Canada’s international profile. The following are some examples. secure is still mostly theoretical. Raising
“Le Canada: pays ou village?” asks Unquestionably, the threat of pro- a well-equipped and mandated UN
Denise Bombardier. “Stephen Harper liferation of nuclear weapons is an over- force is a time-consuming and laborious
semble faire preuve d’une absence arching menace to the world. The good international negotiation, deeply frus-
d’intérêt pour tout ce qui n’est pas news is that weapons of mass destruc- trating while people are dying. The
Canadian.” tion verification has made important notion of a standing multinational UN
Harsh, but supported by others. normative, technical and institutional force has long been discussed but needs
Carol Goar: “Regrettably, Canada has strides since the United Nations Special credible leadership in order to turn into
sidelined itself. It was once a pillar of Commission worked rather raggedly in reality. Canadian leadership would be
the United Nations. Now it is a timely and welcomed by the
bit player. It was once seen as a But the G8 won’t be saved for world’s powers.
country that punched above its peace and security issues. Indeed, it Conflict and terrorism
weight globally. Now it is bare- won’t go away. Military action
ly in the ring.” Or Jeffrey
is unlikely to survive at all, because is seldom decisive in defeating
Simpson: “Canada has so little its added value isn’t sufficiently armed groups. The Rand
to say.” apparent to keep it on the world Corporation has identified 648
We were a mainstay of UN leaders’ already overbooked travel groups that abandoned terror-
peacekeeping, which Lester ism between 1968 and 2006 —
Pearson basically created. Since
itinerary. Only its most marginal only 7 percent by military
1948, 114 Canadians have died members, Canada and Italy, really defeat. The others were
in UN peacekeeping duty. But seemed to care. Japan argued absorbed into the political
we have fallen from 3rd to 57th against the G20 just to keep process. But the process needs
on the list of contributors. players such as Canada to serve
Only 55 Canadian soldiers now
regional rival China out of the as catalysts and honest brokers,
serve among the 93,000 peace- mainstream of world discussion, but a role the larger powers usually
keepers in 17 current UN peace- that game is over. cannot play.
keeping operations. Canada under the
There are substantive reasons for Iraq. Its successor, the United Nations Conservatives is becoming instead
the apparent decline. Peacekeeping is a Monitoring, Verification and more known for gesture politics, bans
viable approach only if there is a nego- Inspection Commission, under Hans on talking with groups like Hamas and
tiated peace to be kept. Today’s chal- Blix, actually got the job done right, walkouts at the UN when unpleasant
lenges are as much in the zone of even though the Bush administration people like Ahmadinejad take the podi-
peace-making, most prominently for disregarded its findings that Iraq had no um. These are useless internationally.
Canada through the NATO engage- current nuclear arms program. Today, The world needs countries ready to
ment in Afghanistan, which is not a Russia and China share the West’s wish engage internationally, diplomatically,
UN mission but is authorized by the to stop proliferation, including in Iran. the way Norway has done, with actors
UNSC (as the US-led invasion of Iraq Working to strengthen the inspections in conflicts, including nonstate actors.
was not, having failed to win the sup- regime under the International Atomic The overall reactivation of
port of 10 of 15 members of the Energy Agency should be a natural fit Canadian foreign policy needs to
Security Council). for Canada. begin now, or else 2010 will mark a
The costs to Canada of the deploy- So are the nuclear build-down humiliating defeat for our campaign to
ment to Kandahar province have been issues Obama is emphasizing. The win election to the UNSC, to complete
heavy: 132 Canadian lives at this writ- review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty our record of election every decade
ing, and billions of dollars. The army is and reinforcing the international com- since the UN was founded. Three
chewed up. prehensive test ban regime are also Western countries — Germany,
52 OPTIONS POLITIQUES
NOVEMBRE 2009
From the G8 to the G20 — to Muskoka, via the UN
Portugal and Canada — are competing much tighter regulation over financial work at the University of Victoria to
for two “Western” swing seats. Once, institutions, including especially their spearhead an international effort
we could expect support from many handling of new and complex finan- among scholars, institutes and former
African countries. That was before we cial “products” like credit swaps, and and current officials to identify how a
downgraded Africa in our develop- excessive executive pay. G20 could tackle some of these and
ment priorities. We even drew EU sup- The financial framework’s global other issues effectively.
port over EU competition — visas and dilemmas include the huge imbalances Nearly two-thirds of Canadians
seals and the rest of the Canadian that exist between export-dominant identify climate change as the “most
small agenda dampens that possibility China, India and Germany, on the one dire threat to humanity.” But interna-
as well. This time, the election of hand, and the debt-laden big con- tional agreement on who needs to do
Canada is by no means assured. sumer, the United States, on the other. what to meet the threat is nowhere
apparent.
Three Western countries — Germany, Portugal and Canada — Carin candidly says he
are competing for two “Western” swing seats. Once, we could can’t see how a world cli-
expect support from many African countries. That was before mate change deal can
emerge on carbon coun-
we downgraded Africa in our development priorities. We even
tries’ emission terms alone:
drew EU support over EU competition — visas and seals and the the transfers from devel-
rest of the Canadian small agenda dampen that possibility as oped to developing to pay
well. This time, the election of Canada is by no means assured. for abatement technologies
will be too great, and the
Does the mandate of the G20 offer A resolution would include counterpart costs of lower growth in China would
Canada equivalent possibilities to add commitments: the United States would be difficult for the Chinese to swallow
real value to international crisis pre- need to address its huge budget deficit, politically. Similarly, he joins many
vention and management? Prime increase its savings rate and try to who can’t see the outlines of a global
Minister Harper seems to think the reduce consumer demand and thereby trade deal ever emerging from the dor-
G20 will be content to assume account- its trade deficit, all without dampening mant Doha Round.
ability for past decisions of the G8, as growth. The export giants would need But why couldn’t there be trade-
well as taking note of Canada’s orderly to promote more consumer spending offs across issue areas? Part of the com-
economic management. Obviously, the and direct investment at home, and pensation for carbon emission
somewhat resentful leaders of the rely less on exports. To pull it off would abatement in emerging economies
major emerging countries are looking require a very strong G20. might come from the removal of
to decision-making on the real and Even more difficult, and possibly enduring barriers to access to devel-
future major issues, not to a past in more important in the long term, are oped markets for developing countries’
which they were not participants. other major substantive and deeply agricultural exports.
After the first G20 meeting in divisive issues that go beyond the con- Of course, this kind of big-picture,
Pittsburgh, President Obama credited fines of one box or another. multifaceted, long-range problem-
participants with “a level of tangible, The G20 can’t arrogate to itself the solving exercise really stretches the
global economic cooperation that right to close a deal outside of the des- institutional art form.
we’ve never seen before.” The general ignated universal bodies where the At summits as we know them,
idea is that the G20 will annually agree whole world participates, several of conditions aren’t very propitious for
on broad objectives for economic which are preoccupied by the endur- coaxing out such trade-offs on huge
growth and then task the International ing gaps between richest and poorest and very political topics. This isn’t
Monetary Fund with carrying out an peoples. A problem with the G20’s rep- Dayton or Camp David. There are too
assessment or peer review of each resentation is an absence of the world’s many people, too little time. The
country’s compliance. poorest countries — understandably, photo from Pittsburgh’s one-day show
It is a problem that there are no since G20 membership is meant to of set speeches shows 53 people at the
sanctions for non-compliance. Let’s include the top 20 economies. But the big round table with a couple of dozen
face it: the G8’s commitments on such G20 could serve as a key focus group to more officials behind.
undertakings as aid to Africa have been catalyze reduction of some of the All this argues for some kind of
ludicrously undersubscribed. adversarial walls among developed, continuous preparatory and consulta-
The more specific and immediate developing and emerging economies, tive process that will need empowered
focus of the Pittsburgh summit was on which could then be taken to the leadership of a kind that doesn’t come
necessary lessons of the financial crisis wider universal forums. easily from a part-time rotating presi-
of the last year. The meeting called for Barry Carin and Gordon Smith dency. One of the reasons the G8
POLICY OPTIONS 53
NOVEMBER 2009
Jeremy Kinsman
became beside the point is that the minister Felipe González Márquez, ex- competition at home, do we have the
preparatory process became bureaucra- president Joachim Chissano of breadth of vision?
tized and compartmentalized. Leaders Mozambique, Chinese master negotia- Once again, 2010 will provide a
came together with only bromidic pre- tor Yong Longtu and so on — to work unique opportunity for Canadian lead-
cooked declarations to approve. The the capitals to prepare the sorts of grand ership of a kind that will win plaudits
G20 has to do better, but it isn’t evi- bargains the world has to take on board. from others, and that will thereby build
dent how to do this and handle the Meanwhile, Carin strongly advo- influence for Canada. But it will require
cross-cutting major issues. cates connecting to the networks lifting the Canadian game. There is no
Carin envisages the detachment among NGOs and research institutes reason that Stephen Harper cannot do
from national governments of key top to validate the data and the options it, though he will have to change his
officials to form an elite team from and to ensure transparency. It is essen- closed and controlling style. There are
present, recent and future presidencies tial to mobilize civil society for the high stakes for this country across the
of the G20 to consult, prepare and cat- peace and security and cross-cutting political and economic boards. There is
alyze bargaining. But best and brightest environmental and economic issues. also the enduring notion of service to
elites don’t deliver public buy-in. It will Consultation is important, but getting humanity that Canadians were born
take the thorough engagement of polit- their input is even more so. bred and to take seriously. It needs
ical leaders who need to answer to their Are Canadian officials and revival among us.
electorates (and get re-elected). The Canada’s political level up to this, or
upside is that participation in a difficult will they just be along for the ride? Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman
collective undertaking does provide Can they begin to match and use the served as Canada’s ambassador or high
political cover to national leaders for ingenuity of scholars and other out- commissioner to 15 countries or organi-
the task of persuading their parliaments siders and take some of these ideas zations, including Russia, Britain and
(those in the G20 that have them) to go that are essential to problem solving the European Union. He currently heads
along. But they probably need to name and governance affecting the planet a Community of Democracies program
a catalyzing team of those who have to the international political market? for democracy development, and is
worked at the top — Tony Blair, Kofi In a government obsessed mostly Regents’ Lecturer at the University of
Annan, Bill Clinton, ex-Spanish prime with minority-government partisan California, Berkeley.
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