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					                      Item                    Description   Size        Price 2010
Tomatoes                          per LB                                        1.98
Brocolli                          per LB                                        1.56
Celery                            Stalk                                         1.36
Navel Oranges                     per LB                                        0.58
Green Peppers                     per LB                                        0.88
Yellow Onions                     per LB                                        0.88
Gala Apples                       per LB                                        1.37
Grapes                            per LB                                        2.48
Eggs                              18 count                                      2.54
Schepps Whole Milk                Gallon                                        4.24
Great Value Mild Cheddar          16 oz                                         3.98
Land O Lakes Butter               16 oz                                         3.67
Gold Medal Flour                  5 LB                                          2.62
Great Value Sugar                 4 LB                                           1.5
Filtered Water Refill             Gallon refill                                 0.37


Oscar Meyer Bun Length Hot Dogs   8 pack                                             2
Oscar Meyer Balogna               8 oz                                          1.98
Lays Potato Chips                 11 oz                                              3
Oreos Cookies                     16 oz                            16           2.98
Blue Bell Ice Cream               1/2 Gallon                                         6
Folgers Classic Roast Coffee      11.3 oz                                       3.52
Wesson Canola Oil                 48 oz                                         2.98
Tombstone Pizza                   20 oz                            20           3.33
Kraft Box Mac and Cheese          pasta box                                          1
Green Giant Corn                  can                                           1.16
Campbells Chunk Soup              can                                            1.5
Honeycomb Cereal                  12.5 oz                                       2.42
Cheerios                          14 oz                                         3.12
Tyson Chicken Breast              per LB                                        3.01
Hormel Black Label Bacon          16 oz                                         2.98
Country Style Ribs                per LB                                        2.63
Ground Chuck Meat                 per LB                                        3.01
Hidden Valley Ranch Dressing      24 oz                                         3.88
Coca Cola soda                    12 pack                                       4.28
Welch Grape Juice                 64 oz                                              3
Natures Own Honey Wheat Bread     loaf                                          2.38
Prego Spaghetti Sauce             jar                                                2
Parent's Choice Size 3 Diapers               96 count                                                      14.97
Gerber Bananas                               6 oz jar                                                        0.72
Emfamil Lipil Baby Formula                   25.7 ounces                                    25.7           24.77
Dove Shampoo                                 12 oz                                                           3.63
Dove White Soap                              6 bar pack                                                       5.5
Equate Skin Lotion                           16 oz                                                           5.97
Charmin Ultra Soft TP                        4 pack                                                          3.36
Tide Detergent                               100 oz                                                        14.18
Lysol All Purpose Cleaner                    40 oz                                            40             2.72

                                                                                                                1
                     KEY                     Deflated
                                             Inflated                                                     167.99




Notes


Overall, 17 items deflated in price after one year, 18 inflated, and 11 stayed the same.
12 significant declines greater than 5%. Those items were concentrated in the household sector, cereals, and flour. The price


There were 16 significant increases greater than 5%, and the increases had higher volatility as a group than the declines. This


The biggest increases were in meats. Hot dogs and balogna were up 50% from last year. Chicken breasts were up 10%, ribs up
Soaps and lotions mixed. Those up ranged from 5 - 21%, while those down 8 - 15%.Overal, a slight deflation of 1.94%.


The biggest overall moves were in fruits and veggies, with an overall inflation of 21%. Green bell peppers were up 309% (no k


Dairy saw modest deflation for all but butter, which had 8% inflation,to net 0.5% for the category. The one coffee item I had
Basic cooking consisted of flour, sugar, and cooking oil. This segment saw 3.94% inflation. Flour was very cheap compared to
Snacks saw a modest increase of 0.49% increase from last year.
One observation from the data that is while we saw larger price moves in the inflationary items, two of the highest price item
A very intersting observation occurs when products are separated out into either discount/generic/store brand versus name
There were 4 items that changed sizes from one year to the next. For those, I divided the price by unit of measure for both th
Lastly, due to consumer choice, the higher price items are typically purchased in moderation compared to processed food stu
Inflated                   17
Deflated                   18
Stayed Same                11




Fruits and Vegetables     21%
Meats                   19.47%
Lotions & Soaps         -1.94%
Baby                    -0.90%
Dairy                    0.54%
Coffee                    18%
Basic Cooking            3.94%
Snacks                   0.49%
                                 25%



                                 20%



                                 15%



                                 10%



                                 5%
                      0%
                            Fruits and
                            Vegetables
                      -5%



Generics      3.24%
Brand Names   0.09%
Price / Unit       Size           Price 2011         Price / Unit       Inflation / Deflation
         1.98                              1.98               1.98                              1
         1.56                              1.48               1.48               0.948717949
         1.36                              1.34               1.34               0.985294118
         0.58                              1.32               1.32               2.275862069
         0.88                              2.72               2.72               3.090909091
         0.88                                  0.8             0.8               0.909090909
         1.37                              1.37               1.37                              1
         2.48                              2.48               2.48                              1
         2.54                              2.46               2.46               0.968503937
         4.24                              4.18               4.18               0.985849057
         3.98                              3.94               3.94               0.989949749
         3.67                              3.98               3.98               1.084468665
         2.62                              2.28               2.28               0.870229008
          1.5                              1.78               1.78               1.186666667
         0.37                              0.37               0.37                              1


               2                                3                   3                       1.5
         1.98                              2.98               2.98               1.505050505
               3                           2.98               2.98               0.993333333
     0.18625              15.25            2.98      0.195409836                 1.049180328
               6                           5.98               5.98               0.996666667
         3.52                              4.18               4.18                      1.1875
         2.98                              3.32               3.32                 1.11409396
      0.1665                23             3.33      0.144782609                 0.869565217
               1                                1                   1                           1
         1.16                                   1                   1            0.862068966
          1.5                                  1.5             1.5                              1
         2.42                              2.48               2.48               1.024793388
         3.12                                  2.5             2.5               0.801282051
         3.01                              3.33               3.33               1.106312292
         2.98                              3.38               3.38               1.134228188
         2.63                              2.98               2.98               1.133079848
         3.01                              2.98               2.98               0.990033223
         3.88                                  3.2             3.2               0.824742268
         4.28                              4.28               4.28                              1
               3                                3                   3                           1
         2.38                              2.38               2.38                              1
               2                                2                   2                           1
                       14.97                                   13.97            13.97              0.933199733
                        0.72                                    0.66             0.66              0.916666667
                0.96381323                       24            23.78    0.990833333                1.028034585
                        3.63                                    3.96             3.96              1.090909091
                         5.5                                    6.68             6.68              1.214545455
                        5.97                                    6.27             6.27              1.050251256
                        3.36                                    3.36             3.36                           1
                       14.18                                   11.97            11.97              0.844146685
                       0.068                     32                 2          0.0625              0.919117647
                                                                                                   50.38434257
                                                                                                   1.095311795




                                  Difference =        3.796626218

                                   Inflation =        0.022600311
                                Percentage             2.260031084




eals, and flour. The price of Cheerios declined 20%, Hidden Valley Ranch dressing by 17.5%, and Tide detergent by 15%.


p than the declines. This may suggest that inflation is affecting different products (and their supply chains) differently, which is consistent


asts were up 10%, ribs up 13%, and bacon up 13%. Ground chuck was down about 1%.
eflation of 1.94%.


pers were up 309% (no kidding) and navel oranges were up 227% (no kidding). While these items were not on sale last year when I select


he one coffee item I had was up 18%, which is modest considering reported 30% in supply costs reported across the ocean in late 2010.
very cheap compared to last year, but sugar and oil were very much higher.


 of the highest price items saw large deflations which affected the overall basket of goods significantly. If you do not purchase diapers, fo
tore brand versus name brand products. Excluding fruits and vegetables (for which I did not note whether they had a brand name sticker
it of measure for both this year and last, and compared the price per unit of measure. Of the four that changed sizes, the Oreos cookies s
ed to processed food stuffs that didn't rise as much in price. This reflects my conscious decision to choose items that would already fit in
Inflated
Deflated
Stayed Same
Meats   Lotions &   Baby   Dairy   Coffee    Basic    Snacks
          Soaps                             Cooking




                                                      Generics
                                                      Brand Names
Weighted Inflation / Deflation         Inflated       Deflated       None
                             1.98                                x
                             1.48                 x
                             1.34                 x
                             1.32 x
                             2.72 x
                                 0.8              x
                             1.37                                x
                             2.48                                x          2.4
                             2.46                 x
                             4.18                 x
                             3.94                 x
                             3.98 x
                             2.28                 x
                             1.78 x
                             0.37                                x


                                  3x
                             2.98 x
                             2.98                 x
                    3.126557377 x
                             5.98                 x
                             4.18 x
                             3.32 x
                    2.895652174                   x
                                  1                              x
                                  1               x
                                 1.5                             x
                             2.48 x
                                 2.5              x
                             3.33 x
                             3.38 x
                             2.98 x
                             2.98                 x
                                 3.2              x
                             4.28                                x
                                  3                              x
                             2.38                                x
                                  2                              x
                                               13.97                                 x
                                                 0.66                                x
                                         25.46441667 x
                                                 3.96 x
                                                 6.68 x
                                                 6.27 x
                                                 3.36                                                    x
                                               11.97                                 x
                                                  2.5                                x
                                         171.7866262
                                                                                17                  18           11




de detergent by 15%.


y chains) differently, which is consistent with Austrian theory on inflation.




were not on sale last year when I selected them, it is possible that seasonal factors such as weather have heavily influenced prices in this


eported across the ocean in late 2010.



antly. If you do not purchase diapers, for instance, then your overall inflation would move up by about a percentage point. If you are single
whether they had a brand name sticker on them), the name brand items had relatively no inflation (0.09 percent!), wheras the discount/g
 that changed sizes, the Oreos cookies showed a per unit inflation of 4.9%, the Tombstone pizza showed a deflation of 13%, Emfamil baby
o choose items that would already fit in my budget. Different consumers with different incomes and lifestyles will choose differently, reinf
0.216411181
nfluenced prices in this segment. Given recent weather abnormalities, I feel we would have to follow this for at least 2 years before we ca




ge point. If you are single and buy less laundry detergent, expect a basket increase of about 1.8% overall. Or stated another way, diapers a
, wheras the discount/generic/store brand items had much higher 3.24% inflation. This may signal that because the generic products are
n of 13%, Emfamil baby formula inflated 2.8%, and the Lysol All Purpose cleaner deflated about 8%.
choose differently, reinforcing the view that government inflation numbers do not adequately reflect the choices each person makes on a
his for at least 2 years before we can tell how much of an impact inflation is making on this part of the good budget. Yellow onions and br




all. Or stated another way, diapers are holding down inflation in other baby care items, and laundry detergent was holding down inflation
t because the generic products are typically already discounted items, that any ability of absorbing inflation losses by the manufacturer is


he choices each person makes on a daily basis and cannot therefore adequately predict how grocery inflation will affect each family. Thos
udget. Yellow onions and brocolli fell significantly in this category.




was holding down inflation in other soaps and lotions.
ses by the manufacturer is much more limited than on name brand items that typically sell with higher margins. Because my basket of go


will affect each family. Those who purchase more fresh vegetables and meats to cook at home will have significantly higher grocery bills t
s. Because my basket of goods was weighted heavier towards name brand items, both because they are more readily available and becau


cantly higher grocery bills than those who choose to budget for items in which do not rise in price, and therefore they can afford. This is c
 readily available and because people have been shown through research to highly value name brands, my overall observed level of inflat


ore they can afford. This is captured in government inflation numbers as 'substitution', and as such wills how that government measures a
rall observed level of inflation was MUTED compared to the actual increase in commodity components of the products purchased. In oth


at government measures adequately reflect choices that SOME consumers make in their budgets, but not all. And futher, it does NOT me
products purchased. In other words, inflation is more 'visible' in generic item


And futher, it does NOT measure overall inflation in availabl
                  Item               Description   Size        Price 2010        Price / Unit

Oscar Meyer Bun Length Hot Dogs   8 pack                                  2                  2
Oscar Meyer Balogna               8 oz                                 1.98               1.98
Tyson Chicken Breast              per LB                               3.01               3.01
Hormel Black Label Bacon          16 oz                                2.98               2.98
Country Style Ribs                per LB                               2.63               2.63
Ground Chuck Meat                 per LB                               3.01               3.01

                                                                      15.61
Meats




Dove Shampoo                      12 oz                                3.63               3.63
Dove White Soap                   6 bar pack                            5.5                5.5
Equate Skin Lotion                16 oz                                5.97               5.97
Tide Detergent                    100 oz                              14.18             14.18
Lysol All Purpose Cleaner         40 oz                   40           2.72             0.068

                                                                            32

Soaps & Lotions




Parent's Choice Size 3 Diapers    96 count                            14.97             14.97
Gerber Bananas                    6 oz jar                             0.72               0.72
Emfamil Lipil Baby Formula        25.7 ounces        25.7             24.77       0.96381323

                                                                      40.46
Baby




Eggs                              18 count                             2.54               2.54
Schepps Whole Milk                Gallon                               4.24               4.24
Great Value Mild Cheddar         16 oz              3.98      3.98
Land O Lakes Butter              16 oz              3.67      3.67
Blue Bell Ice Cream              1/2 Gallon           6         6

                                                   20.43
Dairy




Gold Medal Flour                 5 LB               2.62      2.62
Great Value Sugar                4 LB                1.5       1.5
Wesson Canola Oil                48 oz              2.98      2.98

                                                     7.1
Basic Cooking




Lays Potato Chips                11 oz                3         3
Oreos Cookies                    16 oz        16    2.98   0.18625
Blue Bell Ice Cream              1/2 Gallon           6         6
Kraft Box Mac and Cheese         pasta box            1         1
Campbells Chunk Soup             can                 1.5       1.5
Coca Cola soda                   12 pack            4.28      4.28
Welch Grape Juice                64 oz                3         3

Snacks                                             21.76




Eggs                             18 count           2.54      2.54
Great Value Mild Cheddar         16 oz              3.98      3.98
Great Value Sugar                4 LB                1.5       1.5
Country Style Ribs               per LB             2.63      2.63
Parent's Choice Size 3 Diapers   96 count          14.97     14.97
Equate Skin Lotion                16 oz                 5.97         5.97
Dove Shampoo                      12 oz                 3.63         3.63
Dove White Soap                   6 bar pack             5.5          5.5

                                                       40.72
Generics




Schepps Whole Milk                Gallon                4.24         4.24
Land O Lakes Butter               16 oz                 3.67         3.67
Gold Medal Flour                  5 LB                  2.62         2.62


Oscar Meyer Bun Length Hot Dogs   8 pack                  2            2
Oscar Meyer Balogna               8 oz                  1.98         1.98
Lays Potato Chips                 11 oz                   3            3
Oreos Cookies                     16 oz          16     2.98      0.18625
Blue Bell Ice Cream               1/2 Gallon              6            6
Folgers Classic Roast Coffee      11.3 oz               3.52         3.52
Wesson Canola Oil                 48 oz                 2.98         2.98
Tombstone Pizza                   20 oz          20     3.33       0.1665
Kraft Box Mac and Cheese          pasta box               1            1
Green Giant Corn                  can                   1.16         1.16
Campbells Chunk Soup              can                    1.5          1.5
Honeycomb Cereal                  12.5 oz               2.42         2.42
Cheerios                          14 oz                 3.12         3.12
Tyson Chicken Breast              per LB                3.01         3.01
Hormel Black Label Bacon          16 oz                 2.98         2.98
Hidden Valley Ranch Dressing      24 oz                 3.88         3.88
Coca Cola soda                    12 pack               4.28         4.28
Welch Grape Juice                 64 oz                   3            3
Natures Own Honey Wheat Bread     loaf                  2.38         2.38
Prego Spaghetti Sauce             jar                     2            2
Gerber Bananas                    6 oz jar              0.72         0.72
Emfamil Lipil Baby Formula        25.7 ounces   25.7   24.77   0.96381323
Charmin Ultra Soft TP             4 pack                3.36         3.36
Tide Detergent                    100 oz               14.18        14.18
Lysol All Purpose Cleaner         40 oz          40     2.72        0.068
              112.8
Brand Names
                                                                            Weighted Inflation /
     Size         Price 2011       Price / Unit     Inflation / Deflation       Deflation

                              3                 3                    1.5                         3
                           2.98              2.98           1.505050505                       2.98
                           3.33              3.33           1.106312292                       3.33
                           3.38              3.38           1.134228188                       3.38
                           2.98              2.98           1.133079848                       2.98
                           2.98              2.98           0.990033223                       2.98

                                                                                            18.65
Diff                      3.04
Inflation         0.194746957
Percentage        19.47469571



                           3.96              3.96           1.090909091                       3.96
                           6.68              6.68           1.214545455                       6.68
                           6.27              6.27           1.050251256                       6.27
                         11.97             11.97            0.844146685                      11.97
             32                2          0.0625            0.919117647                        2.5

                                                                                            31.38
Diff                       -0.62
Deflation            -0.019375
Percentage              -1.9375




                         13.97             13.97            0.933199733                      13.97
                           0.66              0.66           0.916666667                       0.66
             24          23.78      0.990833333             1.028034585              25.46441667

                                                                                     40.09441667

Diff              -0.365583333
Deflation         -0.009035673
Percentage        -0.903567309




                           2.46              2.46           0.968503937                       2.46
                           4.18              4.18           0.985849057                       4.18
                        3.94          3.94   0.989949749          3.94
                        3.98          3.98   1.084468665          3.98
                        5.98          5.98   0.996666667          5.98

                                                                 20.54

Diff                    0.11
Inflation       0.005384239
Percentage      0.538423886



                        2.28          2.28   0.870229008          2.28
                        1.78          1.78   1.186666667          1.78
                        3.32          3.32    1.11409396          3.32

                                                                  7.38

Diff                    0.28
Inflation        0.03943662
Percentage      3.943661972



                        2.98          2.98   0.993333333          2.98
        15.25           2.98   0.195409836   1.049180328   3.126557377
                        5.98          5.98   0.996666667          5.98
                          1             1             1             1
                         1.5           1.5            1            1.5
                        4.28          4.28            1           4.28
                          3             3             1             3

                                                           21.86655738

Diff            0.106557377
Inflation       0.004896938
Percentage      0.489693828



                        2.46          2.46   0.968503937          2.46
                        3.94          3.94   0.989949749          3.94
                        1.78          1.78   1.186666667          1.78
                        2.98          2.98   1.133079848          2.98
                      13.97          13.97   0.933199733         13.97
                          6.27          6.27   1.050251256          6.27
                          3.96          3.96   1.090909091          3.96
                          6.68          6.68   1.214545455          6.68

                                                                   42.04

Diff                      1.32
Inflation         0.032416503
Percentage        3.241650295



                          4.18          4.18   0.985849057          4.18
                          3.98          3.98   1.084468665          3.98
                          2.28          2.28   0.870229008          2.28


                            3             3            1.5            3
                          2.98          2.98   1.505050505          2.98
                          2.98          2.98   0.993333333          2.98
        15.25             2.98   0.195409836   1.049180328   3.126557377
                          5.98          5.98   0.996666667          5.98
                          4.18          4.18        1.1875          4.18
                          3.32          3.32    1.11409396          3.32
             23           3.33   0.144782609   0.869565217   2.895652174
                            1             1             1             1
                            1             1    0.862068966            1
                           1.5           1.5            1            1.5
                          2.48          2.48   1.024793388          2.48
                           2.5           2.5   0.801282051           2.5
                          3.33          3.33   1.106312292          3.33
                          3.38          3.38   1.134228188          3.38
                           3.2           3.2   0.824742268           3.2
                          4.28          4.28            1           4.28
                            3             3             1             3
                          2.38          2.38            1           2.38
                            2             2             1             2
                          0.66          0.66   0.916666667          0.66
             24         23.78    0.990833333   1.028034585   25.46441667
                          3.36          3.36            1           3.36
                        11.97          11.97   0.844146685         11.97
             32             2         0.0625   0.919117647           2.5
                           112.9066262

Diff         0.106626218
Inflation    0.000945268
Percentage   0.094526789
    Inflated   Deflated   None

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