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“Pandemic Planning”
Oxfordshire Practice Manager Conference
21.1.09.
(Paul Roblin 10:15am to 10:45am)
Launched 07 January 2009
57 pages
“Practice managers in
particular should find it helpful”
RCGP
http://www.rcgp.org.uk/pdf/GP_Guidance.pdf
BMA
http://www.bma.org.uk/health_promotion_ethics/i
nfluenza/panfluguiddec08.jsp?page=1
More to come
Document will be updated regularly as
ideas emerge. It is therefore important to
visit the DOH website regularly:
www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Flu/Pande
micFlu/index.htm.
Buckman letter
Practices should identify Buddying Groups
(clusters of practices which actively
cooperate for pandemic work)
Pandemic Flu Contingency plan to be
agreed between buddying group and PCT
by March 31 2009.
Anna Hinton
(PCT operational lead)
“Please send all updated plans to into PCT by 1/3/09”
Tel: 01865 336858
Fax: 01865 337094
Mobile: 07900 212 454
email:anna.hinton@oxfordshirepct.nhs.uk
The Government‟s messages to
the public will be:
Stay at home
Don‟t spread it around
Phone the National Pandemic Flu Line
Service not GP practices.
Arrange a „flu friend‟
National Pandemic Flu Line
24-hour telephone line for the general
public.
Capable of activation from spring 2009.
For the public to access antiviral
medication
Issue URN to collect antivirals from a local
„collection point‟.
GPs will receive referrals from the National
Pandemic Flu Line Service call centre.
Flu Line Professional Service
(No public access)
Doctor access to a patient‟s National
Pandemic Flu Line record
Bypasses National Pandemic Flu Line
Service
Check previous antiviral authorisations.
Authorise an antiviral
Generate a URN
Uncertainties of Pandemic
Planning
Prediction is inaccurate
Clinical attack rate could be 25% to 50%,
(normal seasonal flu rate of 5% to 15%).
Adaptability will be needed.
Responses stepped up as appropriate.
(Escalation)
Overall case Range of possible excess deaths in the UK
fatality rate (%)
25% clinical 35% clinical 50% clinical
attack rate attack rate attack rate
0.4 55,500 77,700 111,000
1.0 15,000 210,000 300,000
1.5 225,000 315,000 450,000
2.5 375,000 525,000 750,000
Buddying-up system
A buddying-up system is proposed
Clusters of practices will actively cooperate for
pandemic work, sharing resources and
exchanging staff as necessary.
Templates at www.rcgp.org.uk
Tees Primary Care Services – Primary Care
Continuity Agreement:
Caduceus Medical Practice Influenza Plan:
Role of LMCs
Organising buddying groups.
Ensuring no practice is left isolated
Involved in making decisions about
stopping non-essential work.
1918/19 „Spanish flu‟ 20-40 million deaths
worldwide.
1957 Asian flu‟ 1-4 million deaths
1968 „Hong Kong 1-4 million deaths
flu‟
Pandemic Spread
It seems likely that a flu pandemic will start
outside the UK, but within two to four weeks of
the start of the outbreak in the host country it will
affect the UK.
It could spread around the UK in one to two
weeks, with the peak incidence occurring only
50 days from the initial entry to the UK.
There may be single or multiple waves
It is likely that between a quarter and a half of
the population will be affected.
Practice Funding
Financial protection of practices when they
have to suspend some normal operations
such as Quality and Outcomes Framework
(QOF) work and enhanced services.
More details can be found in Appendix 1
GP workload
GPs will be looking after patients in the
community who are more seriously ill
than under normal circumstances
About one-third of symptomatic patients
will require assessment and treatment
by a GP
Other practice patients who get flu will
be asked to self-care.
Peak Weeks
The duration of a pandemic is unknown
The peak is likely to occur within 50 days of the
first cases of pandemic flu appearing in the UK.
22% of cases likely to occur in the peak week.
For a typical practice of three GPs with a list of
6,000 patients, that works out at 186 extra cases
in the peak week of the pandemic.
Bird Flu (A/H5N1 flu virus )
The worry is flu with the virulence of bird
flu and the transmissibility of human flu
A new strain of avian flu virus mixed with
human flu virus is likely to transmit more
easily to people
Ethics
At the peak of the pandemic it may be
necessary to prioritise who will benefit
most from treatment.
No one will like this but it will be done in an
ethical and objective manner.
Scoring systems for hospital admissions
are being validated at present
Modelling suggests that up to 2.5% of all
flu victims may die.
Coronors
Likely relaxation of the legal requirement
to have seen the dead patient in previous
14 days .
Possibly the period will increase from 14
days to 28 days.
Flexible Certification
Death Certificates: Doctors who have not
attended the patient allowed.
The same doctor could also complete a
streamlined Cremation Form B.
Need for a second cremation doctor will be
suspended
WHO Phases and UK
Alert Levels
1. No new influenza virus subtypes detected in humans
2. Animal influenza virus subtype proposes substantial risk humans
Pandemic alert period
3. Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no (or rare) person-to-person
spread to a close contact
4. Small cluster(s) with limited person-to-person transmission but spread is
highly localised, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans
5. Large cluster(s) but person-to-person spread still localised, suggesting
the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans
Pandemic period
6. Increased and sustained transmission in general population
UK alert levels come into play
UK alert levels (x4):
1. Virus/cases only outside the UK
2. Virus isolated in the UK
3. Outbreak(s) in the UK
4. Widespread activity across the UK
UK Alert Levels
If a pandemic is declared, action will depend on
whether cases have been identified in the UK
and on the extent of spread.
Therefore, for UK purposes, four additional alert
levels have been included within WHO Phase 6.
These UK alert levels are:
1. Virus/cases only outside the UK
2. Virus isolated in the UK
3. Outbreak(s) in the UK
4. Widespread activity across the UK
Clinical Aims and Philosophy
Minimise the spread of the flu virus: isolate flu
patients wherever possible.
Limit the morbidity and mortality from influenza
Stay at home and self-care.
Only certain patients will be seen by a GP or
other healthcare professional.
Only the most seriously ill should be sent to
hospital
(assessed as likely to benefit from specialist
treatment)
.
Infectivity
The incubation period: 1-4 days
Most infectious soon after symptoms
develop.
Droplet spread and Hand-to-face contact
Virus Survival on Surfaces
Hard non-porous surfaces
Flu viruses can survive >24h on
Soft materials
(nightclothes, magazines and tissues)
Up to 2h (15 mins mainly)
Surfaces and Hands
Remove soft furnishings and toys during a
pandemic.
Flu viruses are easily deactivated by
washing with soap and water or alcohol handrub
cleaning surfaces with normal household
detergents and cleaners.
Good hand hygiene is essential
Home visitors should carry personal packs of
alcohol hand rub.
Personal protective equipment
(PPE)
Fluid-repellent face masks should be worn by any
healthcare worker who will have close contact (within
one metre) of people with flu.
Government to stockpile face masks
These will be held centrally until a change in WHO flu
phase status triggers dispatch to PCTs.
The point at which the face mask supplies are distributed
to GP practices will be for PCTs to determine.
The masks will be supplied to practices free of charge.
Storage in practices?
Using Surgical Masks
Surgical masks should:
be worn once only and then discarded to an
appropriate bin as clinical waste; hands should then
be washed/cleansed after disposing of the mask.
cover nose and mouth
not be allowed to dangle round the neck after or between each
use
not be touched until disposed
be changed when moist
Groups
If there is a surgery for flu patients, or a GP/nurse is
visiting patients in a nursing home, it may be more
pragmatic to wear a single mask for the whole time or
until it becomes moist and needs replacing.
Staff absence levels
Primary care staff will get flu, or stay at home
caring for children or other dependants.
Up to half the workforce may require time off at
some stage over the pandemic period
(up to two weeks).
At the peak of the pandemic up to a fifth of the
workforce may be absent.
Single-handed practices will be hit even harder
and may become non-viable without support
from „buddy practices‟.
Staff Illness and Safety
Any GP or member of staff who shows flu
symptoms must be sent home
immediately.
Practice staff who have recovered from
pandemic flu and feel well enough to work
should have immunity and should be able
to treat flu patients.
Staff Contracts and Pay
Alter staff contracts now
Flexibility clause.
to cover possible redeployment and/or altered
hours of work.
Additional overtime taken by staff during
the pandemic must also be funded by the
primary care PCT.
Practice Continuity Plans
All practices must have a service continuity plan.
For advice on how to do this and what to include
read the joint guidance produced by the RCGP
and the GPC at:
www.bma.org.uk/ap.nsf/Content/flupanprep?Op
enDocument&Highlight=2,business,continuity
www.rcgp.org.uk/default.aspx?page=3908.
Photo ID
Each practice should develop an
electronic library of staff photographs
Photo ID during a pandemic
Fuel supply for their vehicles.
Emergency Box Advised
Suggested Contents
Torch
spare batteries
standard phone for use with emergency line
e-charging adaptor for mobile phone
space blanket
up-to-date copy of this document
copies of the service continuity plan and the practice‟s pandemic flu
plan
prepared signs for surgery
photocopied patient encounter forms (in case computers are down)
a ream of A4 paper and writing materials for logging decisions and
recording clinical treatments.
Retired Doctors
Retired doctors will be allowed to certify death
The BMA is working with the DOH to help
identify retired doctors willing to help in a flu
pandemic.
Legislation is proposed which would permit the
GMC, under new emergency powers, to grant a
doctor registration subject to conditions.
PCTs would pay the costs of GMC registration
for this purpose.
Locum GPs
Locums/freelance GPs must be included in
preparation and training programmes,
information cascades
Photo databases
PCTs will employ all available freelance locum
GPs
Arrangements being discussed at national level.
Performers List checking now
GP Registrars
Training and teaching will stop
Length of training period may well be
affected.
Training rotational post changes will be
suspended during a pandemic
(inside and outside hospital.)
Litigation Risk
Special edition of Good Medical Practice
will cover what will be expected of doctors
in a flu pandemic
Doctors acting in good faith unlikely to be
disciplined
(The GMC and Defence Societies)
Practice Actions now
Staff contracts
making voluntary changes.
Staff telephone number database
(including mobile numbers)
Emergency Boxes
Buddy Up
Protocols
“parachuted in” staff (Practice systems and IT
use)
Plan patient separation
Daily “Sit” Reports
Regular reports to a PCT data collection
point
Standard national template of content
Permits assessment of staffing levels at
each site.
Precursor to transfer from one site to
another.
Antiviral medicines
Not on FP10s
Most via National Pandemic Flu Line Service
Unique Reference Number (URN), needed to
obtain antivirals from a local „collection point‟.
Collecting Antivirals
Flu Friends
A nationwide campaign
Collect antiviral drugs from PCT collection
point centres
Security measures will be in place
no unauthorised or duplicate access to
antivirals.
Rebuilding, restoring and
rehabilitation
Gradual Return to normality over
months
Exhausted GPs and staff surprised at
feeling unwell at this point.
Recuperation time
Mass vaccination campaign, could put
added pressure on primary care
Questions?
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