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Retail Sales, Christmas Sales Figures 2010,

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Retail Sales, Christmas Sales Figures 2010, Powered By Docstoc
					FSP Christmas Sales Report - 2010
    • Christmas 2010 trading summary

    • 2010 in perspective

    • Key issues in 2011

    • 2011 expectations




2   Contents
    • It affected business but did it reduce sales?
    • Next says it lost £22m of sales, HMV £20m, M&S
      £55m and Debenhams £30m
    • However:
        – Brent X closed Saturday before Christmas but then
          had 2 record days
        – Peter Cowgill, CE of JD Sport, claims ‘lost’ sales were
          exaggerated
        – BRC said reluctance to spend was a result of
          economic and job uncertainty


    • There is a general ‘consensus’ (amongst retailers)
      that non-food lost c2% of sales due to the snow




3   The Weather!
Christmas Trading Results:
    UK Retail Extracts
                                    2009       2010
                                                               • Winners were
            Restaurants
                                                                 department stores
     Dept/Variety Stores
                                                               • Leisure and household
    Clothing & Footwear
                                                                 most challenging
               Personal


                Grocery


                Leisure


             Household

                           -4   0          4          8   12
                                       %




5   Like-for-like Sales Averages by Category
                                      • 2009 better for most than
                                        2008

                                      • 2010 modest performance

                                      • Note Burberry at +14%,
                                        Aurum Group +15% and
                                        White Company +24%
                                        (total sales)




6   Positive Like for Like Sales - Comparison
                                     •   Direction of travel
                                         worrying for
                                         Comet/Thorntons

                                     •   Surprisingly weak
                                         performance by New
                                         Look




7   Negative Like for Like Sales - Comparison
                         • no like-for-likes quoted, but total sales
                           increases of >90% group

                         • Non-Food - surprisingly good results,
                           compared to its own Food section


                         •   something has gone right at last!


                         •   there’s still a market for luxury


                         •   20% up over Christmas




8   Some Interesting Winners
    • Christmas revealed little that was not known:
       – Bad weather can affects retailing (or not!)
       – One-stop shopping locations benefit - covered malls,
          department stores and supermarkets

    • But sales growth is slowing – the difference between the best and
      the rest is increasing

    • Retailers direction of travel is important – not just sales extracts

    • Like for like figures are interesting but should be treated with caution

    • Sales are vanity, profit is sanity



9    Christmas Sales - Summary
2010 Trading – a Glance Back
                                  90                                               8000




                                                                                          Total Number of Stores
                                  80                                               7000
             Count of Retailers   70                                               6000
                                  60
                                                                                   5000
                                  50
                                                                                   4000
                                  40
                                                                                   3000
                                  30
                                  20                                               2000
                                  10                                               1000
                                   0                                               0
                                       2008                2009       2010
                                       Retailer Failures          Store Closures


     •    The shake-out has slowed
     •    Many casualties already had a chequered history e.g. Adams, Faith
     •    2010 was the Year of the Phoenix - Cruise, Thoughts Cards, Happit
     •    British Bookshops and Krisp latest casualties


11       Retailer Failures
     Put in context of 2010 trading overall:

                       60%

                       50%

                       40%
         % Retailers




                       30%

                       20%

                       10%

                        0%
                                   Healthy          Head above water          Very worrying

                                             2009                      2010

     •                 There has been a marked increase in the proportion of Healthy and
                       retailers and a decline in Very Worrying
     •                 FSP tracked 62 new retailers opening in 2010

12   Business Health
          %6


           5


           4


           3


           2


           1


           0
               Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
                09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
                                3mth Like-for-Like          3mth Total


      • But the sales trend remains unmistakably down
      •   It is therefore critical to understand the ‘direction of travel’ for
          individual retailers

13   UK Retail Sales Growth (BRC Data)
                                                                  •   Direction of travel
                                                                      is not consistent
                                                                  •   Identifying
                                                                      winners and
                                                                      losers is essential




       -60%    -40%   -20%          0%           20%        40%
                      % Change in BIS Index (2008 - 2010)




14   Change in Financial Health
2011 - Key issues
     UK                                     External
     VAT Increase                           Rising Commodity Prices
     Public Sector Cuts                     Sovereign Debt Crisis
     Rising Inflation / Interest Rates      Falling Exchange Rate
     Falling House Prices
     Pay Restraint
     Fragile Consumer Confidence
     Restricted Consumer Access to Credit
     Stalled Retail Development Pipeline




16   Key Factors
                                          40%                                                70%

           Internet / Supermarket Share
                                          35%                                                65%




                                                                                                   Town Centre Share
                                          30%                                                60%
                                          25%                                                55%
                                          20%                                                50%
                                          15%                                                45%
                                          10%                                                40%
                                          5%                                                 35%
                                          0%                                                 30%
                                                           2005        2010      2020
                                                Internet          Supermarkets     Town Centres
          Source: FSP



•    Growth in Internet and Supermarket turnover significantly higher than on high
     streets between 2005 and 2010
•    If trends continue, by 2020 the majority of comparison goods sales will take place
     outside town centres



17   The Elephant in the Room…..
2011 - What sort of a year?
      •   Middle ground will continue to be squeezed

      •   Weakest/smallest of the value operators will come under pressure

      •   Electronics – some ‘rationalisation’ would not be surprising

      •   Household goods – continued depression of house market

      •   Tired retail formats e.g. Moss Bros, HMV, Bhs?

      •   Middle sized towns will continue to lose out to larger towns, OOT
          and on-line, leading to continued consolidation of portfolios

      •   Public sector dominated economies will be hit

      •   Margin pressure will continue to squeeze sustainable rents



19   2011 – Where Will It Hurt?
     •   Retailers with strong brands, distinct market positions and attractive
         formats will keep ahead of the pack e.g. H&M, Hollister, Apple
     •   Tough times will continue to spawn innovation – more websites
     •   New market entrants e.g. Gillyhicks, Forever 21, 7 For All Mankind
     •   Growth of home-grown newcomers e.g. Boux Avenue, Hed Kandi
     •   Quality, value and customer experience will out perform the market e.g.
         regional malls, factory outlet centres, John Lewis
     •   Successful trading locations will be those which embrace and exploit
         the needs of the consumer
     •   Successful landlords will be those who understand their occupiers and
         adapt to the evolving needs of their shoppers



20   FSP Predictions
                                                                    FSP  19 Manor Courtyard
                                                                        Hughenden Avenue
                                                                 High Wycombe  HP13 5RE  UK
                                                               T                 +44 (0) 1494 474740
                                                                      F +44 (0) 1494 474262
                                                                     E fspretail@fspretail.co.uk
                                                             W www.fspretail.co.uk & www.snap-shop.co.uk




Fripp Sandeman and Partners Limited, trading as FSP
G Nicholson (Managing Director) J H Fell J Hewson K Gunn
Registered Number 1284879
Registered Office 19 Manor Courtyard Hughenden Avenue High
Wycombe Buckinghamshire HP13 5RE

 ©FSP 2011

				
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Description: Christmas Sales Figures/Retail sales figures for 2010by FSP - retail business consultants