Saskatchewan mortgage rates update
A report from the CMHC highlights the link between the increased Saskatchewan retail sales and housing demand. Retail sales were up 12% over the first 3 quarters of 2007, double the growth rate experienced one year earlier. This growth has been led by DIY type sales as home centres and hardware stores have dominated with a 33% year-over-year increase while furniture stores have seen a 24% gain. Home electronic and appliance stores have reported annual 20% gains.
Sasckatchewan economy strong due to natural resources
The Saskatchewan economy has recovered well from the weak pace in 2006, thanks largely to a burgeoning natural resource sector and domestic economy. Potash and oil output are soaring, thanks to elevated prices and expanded production capacity. Retail sales have posted the strongest gains on record, boosted by a rapid turnaround in net migration and a recent cut in the PST.
Saskatchewan GDP set to grow by 3.4% in 2008
A 62% surge in housing starts also fuelled the 2007 economic expansion. Following an impressive 4.3% surge, the economy will advance more slowly over the next two years. The mining sector, housing markets and consumption growth are all expected to cool, leading to real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2008 and 3.0% in 2009. Personal consumption will expand at a less rapid rate through 2009, due largely to a reallocation of income toward higher housing costs and weaker population gains. In 2007, net migration experienced a remarkable turnaround, led by the hot economy and multitude of job opportunities. Saskatchewans relatively low-cost housing also proved advantageous, attracting migrants back from Alberta where home prices have recently escalated. These conditions pushed net migration to a record high of 14,325 people in 2007. However, with Saskatchewan now leading house price growth across the nation, the relative housing affordability the province once enjoyed will no longer serve as a magnet for migrants. Limited by weaker migration, employment growth will slip below the 2.1% expansion of 2007, reaching 2.0% in 2008 and 1.6% in 2009. Most job growth will be full-time.
Saskatchewan house sales to rise to 12,000+ in 2008
A record low level of active listings could not prevent sales from reaching 12,000 units in 2007, the highest number of transactions ever recorded. Sales will continue their upswing in the first half of 2008, resulting in a modest increase to 12,200 units annually. The rapid surge in prices and weaker speculative investment will reduce demand to 11,600 units for 2009. In 2007, Saskatchewans average resale price jumped 32% , more than double the highest growth rate ever recorded. A low number of active listings, extraordinary demand, and investment dollars from neighbouring provinces contributed to the furious rate of growth. Progressively higher listings and weaker speculative demand will restrain price growth to 26% in 2008 and 8% in 2009.
Saskatchewan key stats
Source: Stats Canada
Metric
Saskatchewan
Canada
Population
2007
Consumer Price Index
Mar'08 (2002 = 100)
996,9000
32,568,000
115
113
Average earnings
(Feb'08)
$38,589
$40,914
Unemployment rate
(Mar'08 )
4.1%
6.0%
Housing starts
(Mar'08)
6,700
243,000
2007 (E) Average Residential Resale Price
$174,000
$306,397*
31.7%
$220,000
10.6%
$322,400*
2008 (F)
(annual % change)
2009 (F)
26.4%
$238,000
5.2%
$334,500*
8.2%
$2,362,963,000
3.8%
$152,478,903,000
Chartered banks
Mortgages approved by lenders, residential 2006
Trust companies
$301,589,000
$6,664,898,000
Life and companies other
$527,170,000
$30,225,144,000
Total
2007 E = estimated by the CMHC
$3,191,722,000
$189,368,945,000
* Canada calculation excludes Yukon and Northwest Territories Data based on application received date Mortgage approval data are gross and may not fully capture lending activities of credit unions, caisses populaires, other smaller institutions and privately-insured loans in some areas Quebec data is understated due to low response rate to the surveys in that province. *Conventional Lending data only
Local Market Indicators
Census Metropolitan Area Total Housing Starts MLS sales MLS average price
2007
1,398
3,957
$165,613
Regina
2008 (F)
1,275
4,000
$200,000
2009(F)
1,175
3,800
$215,000
2007
2,380
4,446
$232,755
Saskatoon
2008 (F)
2,150
4,500
$275,000
2009(F)
2,000
4,300
$297,500
Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Local Real Estate Boards, Statistics Canada MLS = Multiple Listings Service
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