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					Central Solar Power: The
Climate Connection


David Berry
Western Resource Advocates
Solar Sense Forum
Phoenix, Arizona
January 10, 2008
www.westernresources.org


                    With commentary by Voltaire


1/15/2008                  csp pres jan 08        1
   “He who has not the spirit of this age has all the
   misery of it”


  CO2                      Emissions hit a
emissions                    peak and
                              decline

       Spirit of the age                           What is CSP’s
       is to stabilize                             role in reducing
       global average                              CO2 emissions?
       surface
       temperatures




                                                  Climate stabilization
                                                  path


                                                                time




   1/15/2008                    csp pres jan 08                           2
    “O what fine times, this age of iron!”



                                            World CO2 Emissions from Consumption and Flaring of
Global                                                         Fossil Fuels
CO2                                      30,000
emissions                                                                                                         Rest of Asia & Oceania
have                                     25,000                                                                   Japan
increased                                                                                                         India
                                         20,000
54%                                                                                                               China
since                                                                                                             Africa
                                         15,000
1980                                                                                                              Middle East
                                         10,000                                                                   Former USSR
                                                                                                                  Europe
                                          5,000




               Million Metric Tons CO2
                                                                                                                  C & S America
                                                                                                                  Rest of North America
                                             0
                                                                                                                  United States
                                                  1980
                                                         1983
                                                                1986
                                                                       1989
                                                                               1992
                                                                                      1995
                                                                                             1998
                                                                                                    2001
                                                                                                           2004




                                    Source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2005, Table H.1co2

   1/15/2008                                                                  csp pres jan 08                                              3
The most rapid growth rate in CO2 emissions
since 2000 has occurred in China


                      Average Annual Percentage Change in CO2
                               Emissions 2000 to 2005

                           United States
                                  Japan
                                 Europe
                  Rest of North America
                           Former USSR
              Central and South America
                                    India
                                   Africa
                                   World
                 Rest of Asia & Oceania
                             Middle East
                                   China

                                            0%   2%   4%      6%   8% 10% 12% 14%


            Source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2005, Table H.1co2

1/15/2008                                   csp pres jan 08                         4
“If this is the best of all possible worlds, what are
the others like?”


                           2005 Per Capita CO2 Emissions from Combustion and
                                           Flaring of Fossil Fuels
 The US &
 Australia have            Australia
 much higher per       United States
 capita CO2             Netherlands
                           Germany
 emissions than               Japan
 other developed              Spain
 countries.          United Kingdom
                       New Zealand
                                Italy
                             France
                            Sweden
                              World
                              China
                              India

                                        0    5           10        15            20   25
                                                 metric tons of CO2 per person


               Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2005, Table H.1cc02

1/15/2008                        csp pres jan 08                                           5
Combustion of coal accounts for 40% of
worldwide carbon dioxide emissions


                                                                     Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2005
 Source: EIA
 International Energy                                           30,000                               Rest of Asia &
 Annual 2005, Tables                                                                                 Oceania
 H.4co2 & H,1co2                                                                                     Japan
                                                                25,000
                                                                                                     India

                                                                20,000                               China
 82% of
 China’s CO2                                                                                         Africa
                                                                15,000
 emissions are                                                                                       Middle East
 from
                                                                10,000                               Eurasia
 consumption
 of coal and                                                                                         Europe
                                                                 5,000
 68% of India’s
                                                                                                     Central and South
 are from               million metric tons of carbon dioxide                                        America
 consumption                                                        0                                Rest of North America
                                                                         CO2 emissions   total CO2
 of coal                                                                                             United States
                                                                           from coal     emissions




1/15/2008                                                                  csp pres jan 08                                   6
“Everything’s fine today, that is our illusion.”



The Southwest’s climate future:
‘ Drier climate, continued drought, reduced snowpack,
  declining water supplies
   – Conflict among water uses, wildfires
‘ Warmer climate: 5o to 8o F warmer by 2100 if CO2
  concentration is 2.5 times higher than in pre-industrial era.
   – More heat waves, exacerbated urban heat island effect
‘ Ecological changes
   – Invasive species, earlier spring, insect invasions, loss of
     habitat

‘   References: Jim Steenburgh, University of Utah, “BRAC Climate Science Report
    Overview,” 2007. C.B. Field et al., “North America,” Chapter 14 in Climate Change 2007:
    Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
    Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
    University Press 617-652, 2007. Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, “Global Warming
    in the Southwest: How Does It Affect Us?” University of Arizona.


1/15/2008                              csp pres jan 08                                         7
     GHG emissions must decline dramatically, starting
     now, if temperature increases are to be moderate



    CO2          CO2 equivalent       Global mean       Peaking year of   Change in global CO2
concentration    concentration        temperature        CO2 emissions     emissions in 2050
    ppm               ppm         increase above pre-                         (% of 2000
                                        industrial                            emissions)
                                     equilibrium oC
 350 to 400       445 to 490          2.0 to 2.4         2000 to 2015          -85 to -50

 400 to 440       490 to 535          2.4 to 2.8         2000 to 2020          -60 to -30

 440 to 485       535 to 590          2.8 to 3.2         2010 to 2030          -30 to +5

 485 to 570       590 to 710          3.2 to 4.0         2020 to 2060         +10 to +60

 570 to 660       710 to 855          4.0 to 4.9         2050 to 2080         +25 to +85

 660 to 790       855 to 1130         4.9 to 6.1         2060 to 2090        +90 to +140



      Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, Summary for Policymakers,
      2007, p. 15

     1/15/2008                              csp pres jan 08                                      8
 “No problem can withstand the assault of
 sustained thinking”



   Role of CSP in climate policy:
   ‘ CSP could play a major role in implementing climate
       policy by:

            – Displacing future conventional coal-fired power
              plants
            – Replacing existing conventional coal-fired power
              plants
            – Thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions

   ‘   However, CSP will probably have to be coupled with other
       generation, such as gas-fired generation, to fully substitute for
       conventional base-load coal-fired power plants



1/15/2008                           csp pres jan 08                        9
 “Life is bristling with thorns, and I know no other
 remedy than to cultivate one's garden.”


    A clean energy strategy for serving AZ load growth




Renewable energy would serve about one-third of load growth
Of that, CSP’s role will depend on cost and performance
Source: Western Resource Advocates, A Clean Electric Energy Strategy for Arizona, 2007.
 1/15/2008                              csp pres jan 08                                   10
The Clean Energy Strategy reduces CO2
emissions from serving load growth


                                                   CO2 Emissions from Power Generation to Serve
 Load in 2025 is                                                   Arizona Load
                                              60
 about double
 that in 2006,                                50
 but CO2
                                              40
 emissions from
 serving load                                 30
 growth with
                                              20
 clean energy




                    million metric tons CO2
 resources are                                10
 only about one
 sixth of the                                  0

 emissions from
                                                   2006
                                                          2008
                                                                 2010
                                                                        2012
                                                                               2014
                                                                                      2016
                                                                                             2018
                                                                                                    2020
                                                                                                           2022
                                                                                                                  2024




 the power
                                                    emissions: clean energy strategy to serve load growth
 supply portfolio
 existing in 2006                                   approximate emissions 2006



1/15/2008                                                   csp pres jan 08                                              11
Emissions from existing power plants must also be
reduced via retirement and replacement with clean
resources or capture & storage of CO2 emissions



Old coal plants are                                              Coal Fired Generation Capacity in the
obvious candidates for                                                   Southwest by Vintage
retirement                                                   25,000

Five states: AZ, NM,
                                                             20,000
NV, UT, CO
Of the 20,000 MW of                                          15,000
coal fired generation
capacity:
                                                             10,000
      about 5,000 MW
      was installed                                           5,000
                         capacity existing as of 2007 (MW)


      before 1974
      nearly 12,000 MW                                           0
                                                                 1930   1940   1950   1960    1970   1980     1990   2000   2010
      was installed
                                                                                      year plant in service
      before 1980

1/15/2008                                                      csp pres jan 08                                                     12
Competitors of CSP – high capacity factor
energy services with low CO2 emissions


              CSP with     Energy         Geo-     Nuclear     IGCC with
               storage    Efficiency    thermal                   CCS

  CO2         0           0            0 – 0.03    0           0.4 for early
  emissions                                                    plants to
  (metric                                                      0.1 for later
  tons per                                                     plants
  MWh)
  cost        High, but   low          moderate    ???         high
              costs
              expected
              to fall
              over time
  status      To be       Lowest       Geograph-   No          Still in
              discussed   cost         ically      recent      planning
              at this     resource     limited     projects.   phase
              con-                     supply      Waste
              ference                              storage
                                                   not set
1/15/2008                       csp pres jan 08                                13
   “The secret
   of being a
   bore is to
   tell
   everything”




1/15/2008        csp pres jan 08   14

				
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