Financial Modelling in Indian Real Estate by clm12324

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India Real Estate Report Q2 2010
Published on February 2010

                                                                                                                 Report Summary

The Indian market has suffered as a result of the global financial crisis and the ensuing recession. Our view is that India's road to
economic recovery will be rocky and gradual. A poor monsoon in 2009 raised risks to both agricultural output and private
consumption, but we believe this will be offset by a nascent recovery in manufacturing and strong government expenditure
underpinning the service sector. The real estate sector in India struggled through much of 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the
downturn, having previously had four years previously full of booming prices and demand. Much of the industry has suffered from
unsold and unfinished projects. Tighter bank lending led to projects stalling, which has a negative affect at the time but will help the
industry recover as demand returns to a closer level to supply.
Luxury residential property prices have fallen dramatically and as we see affordability as a big driver of recovery for the sector, this
section may well struggle for a while yet. India's office space market has been severely affected by the crisis, with low demand,
increases in vacancy rates and falling rental and capital values in 2009. However, vacancy levels have gently increased and rental
prices have now stabilised. Less activity by property funds is likely to result in further delays in projects still under construction.




                                                                                                                  Table of Content

Executive Summary ......5
Key Features Of This Report ....6
SWOT Analysis..7
India Real Estate/Construction SWOT ... 7
India Economic SWOT... 8
India Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Real Estate Investment Trusts ..9
Table: REIT Returns ' FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index And Components, 2007-Q110 (% change).. 10
Real Estate Market Overview ..13
Construction Overview......14
Commercial Construction . 14
Table: Major Construction Projects In India . 15
Industrial Construction 15
Hotel And Resort Construction 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Regional Real Estate Outlook .. 17
Table: Asia Pacific Housing Prices At A Glance .. 17
Table: Asia Pacific Office Rents ' CBRE.... 19
India's Real Estate Outlook ..... 19
India's Construction Industry Outlook 20
Table: India's Construction And Infrastructure Industry, 2007-2015... 21
India's Monetary Policy Outlook.... 22
Table: India ' Monetary Policy, 2006-2014 .. 23
India's Macroeconomic Outlook..... 24



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Table: India ' Contribution To GDP Growth By Segment, 2007-2015. 26
Business Environment ......27
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings . 27
Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings .. 27
Project Finance Ratings ... 29
Table: Design And Construction Rating ..... 32
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating ...... 34
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating 35
India's Business Environment .. 35
Table: BMI Business And Operational Risk Ratings .. 36
Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings 38
Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Asia, 2006-2008. 44
Table: India's Top Export Destinations, 2002-2008 (US$mn(. 45
Table: BMI Trade Ratings           46
Company Monitor .49
Ambuja Cements Ltd.... 49
DLF 51
Parsvnath Developers Ltd . 53
Sobha Developers Ltd.. 55
BMI Forecast Modelling.....57
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 57
Construction Industry .. 58
Bank Lending..... 58
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ... 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ...... 60
Project Finance Ratings Indicators 62
Table: Design And Construction Phase ...... 62
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Commercial Construction .... 63
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Energy And Utilities ... 64
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Transport 65
Sources .. 66




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