Excel Tax Usage Spreadsheet - Excel

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Excel Tax Usage Spreadsheet - Excel Powered By Docstoc
					CARBON TAX _ 4-Sector Model

Charles Komanoff, Carbon Tax Center (CTC), www.carbontax.org, kea@igc.org                                             2/22/2009



              To bypass the Summary explanations and run the model                      Page Down twice for Results.
              right away, just Page Down to Row 54 and fire away.                       For graph of CO2 reductions
                                                                                        over time, go to worksheet
Summary                                                                                 entitled "Graph_CO2".

This spreadsheet models the impacts of a federal carbon tax on fuel use, carbon emissions and
revenues, using a 4-sector model: Electricity, Gasoline, Aviation, and Other.

It is intended to provide “rough but reasonable” estimates of future reductions in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions that
would result from implementing either a straight carbon tax, or a "hybrid carbon tax" that overlaid a per-gallon tax on
gasoline and aviation fuel atop the straight carbon tax on the carbon contents of coal, oil and natural gas.

The user can select the levels of both taxes below, including zero for the extra petrol tax (which eliminates the hybrid
aspect and reduces the tax to a straight carbon tax).

About the organization of this spreadsheet
There are 8 active worksheets, including this one. (A ninth, Outtakes, is vestigial.)
Summary -- This worksheet. It prints to six pages (of which one is blank).
Electricity -- accounts for just over 40% of U.S. CO2 emissions, and is dominated by coal.

Gasoline -- is dominated by household vehicles, including so-called light trucks, but also includes some light-duty
commercial/freight vehicles and recreational/lawn-care machines. 21% of nationwide emissions.
Aviation -- Just 4% of U.S. CO2, but growing relatively rapidly, and high-profile.
"Other" -- all fossil-fuel burning other than gasoline or for electricity; yes, it's a catch-all, and ideally should be
disaggregated. Accounts for 35% of emissions.
Graph_CO2 charts annual CO2 emissions with and without the assumed tax(es).
Graph_Oil charts petroleum usage with and without the assumed tax(es).
Emissions -- A brief table of U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide in recent years.
Emissions are expressed in CO2 (rather than carbon) and, for the most part, in metric terms. The carbon tax rate is
expressed in CO2 and in British tons, not metric tons or tonnes.
Inputs

This summary sheet combines emission projections from four worksheets: Electricity, Gasoline, Aviation and Other.
(See Other worksheet for description of its composition.) Also see graph worksheets for visual representations.

Magenta-colored cells may be entered by you, the user. ALL OTHER CELLS SHOULD BE LEFT ALONE, to
avoid inadvertently altering the formulas that determine their value.

Select initial carbon tax, per ton of carbon dioxide emitted (not carbon)                                          $10.00

Now select one of two ways to increment tax. Click on box                                                           1
directly to right, and use pull-down menu to input "1" or "2".
 1. The initial tax amount above will be incremented each year at the same rate
(Example: if the initial rate in the box above is $10, then the second-year tax rate would be $20, the third-year rate $30, etc.)
or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or or
 2. The initial tax will be compounded annually at a % rate chosen by you, here:                                   4%
(Example: if you choose a compound growth rate of 10% along with an initial tax rate of $10, then the second-year tax rate would be $11.00, the third-year rate $1

Initial tax amount, expressed alternatively per ton of carbon emitted                                              $36.67
Initial tax amount, expressed alternatively per tonne (metric ton) of CO2 emitted                                  $11.03
This amount equates to this many cents per gallon of gasoline:
(calculated using the 2007-average carbon content of gasoline)                                                          9.8 ¢/gal

Also select an optional addit'l tax rate on gasoline and aviation fuel, ¢/gal, first-year rate:                          0   ¢/gal
(This additional tax, which is optional, will be incremented in the same fashion as the basic carbon tax; i.e., the "switch" between a constant increment vs. a const
  First year in which tax increment is applied                                                                        2010 This year           This and
  Last year in which tax increment is applied                                                                         2032      is "hard-    later years
                                                                                                                                wired" to       pivot off
                                                                                                                               equal 2007     first tax yr
                       The model is configured through 2032. Beyond that point (and
Results               perhaps before) the tax rate would almost certainly be adjusted.
                                                                                                                                       2007           2010
                                                                                              Percentages of CO2
CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, without carbon tax                                     from sector, 2007                     5,991          5,843
 from Electricity                                                                                        40.6%                       2,433      2,318
 from Gasoline                                                                                           20.2%                       1,208      1,246
 from Aviation                                                                                            4.0%                         238        241
 from "Other"                                                                                            35.2%                       2,111      2,038

CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon tax incremented at level inputted above                                                     5,718
 from Electricity                                                                                                                               2,239
 from Gasoline (includes additional direct tax on gasoline)                                                                                     1,230
 from Aviation (includes additional direct tax on jet fuel)                                                                                       240
 from "Other"                                                                                                                                   2,009

Reduction in CO2 due to that carbon tax, relative to moving trajectory, million metric tons                                                     124.6
 from Electricity                                                                                                                                79.5
 from Gasoline (includes additional direct tax on gasoline)                                                                                      15.4
 from Aviation (includes additional direct tax on jet fuel)                                                                                       1.1
 from "Other"                                                                                                                                    28.7

Reduction in CO2 in that year, relative to same year's CO2 if no carbon tax, expressed as a percent.                                              2.1%
Same as above, except each value is the avg reduxn from yr prior to tax start, compounded annually.                                               2.1%

Breakdown of the CO2 reductions among the four sectors
 from Electricity                                                                                                                                 64%
 from Gasoline (includes extra reductions in gasoline)                                                                                            12%
 from Aviation (includes additional direct tax on jet fuel)                                                                                        1%
 from "Other"                                                                                              23%

Reduction in CO2 due to the carbon tax, calculated relative to 2008 emissions, million metric tons       124.6
 from Electricity                                                                                         79.5
 from Gasoline (includes extra reductions in gasoline)                                                    15.4
 from Aviation (includes additional direct tax on jet fuel)                                                1.1
 from "Other"                                                                                             28.7

Hybrid Tax Revenues, $ millions (rounded to nearest hundred million; includes extra petroleum tax)   $   61,000
1   2
            % figure is irrelevant if
            Option 1 was chosen in
            box in Row 56




0, the third-year rate $12.10, the next year $13.31, etc.)




t increment vs. a constant growth rate will apply here as well.)




                     2011           2012           2013            2014    2015      2016      2017      2018      2019      2020

                  5,928           6,014          6,102         6,191      6,282    6,374     6,467     6,562     6,658     6,756
                  2,353           2,388          2,424         2,461      2,497    2,535     2,573     2,612     2,651     2,690
                  1,258           1,271          1,283         1,296      1,309    1,322     1,336     1,349     1,362     1,376
                    248             256            263           271        279      288       296       305       314       324
                  2,069           2,100          2,131         2,163      2,196    2,229     2,262     2,296     2,330     2,365

                  5,662           5,593          5,512         5,421      5,322    5,216     5,104     4,988     4,868     4,761
                  2,186           2,127          2,063         1,996      1,925    1,853     1,780     1,707     1,634     1,569
                  1,226           1,220          1,212         1,204      1,194    1,183     1,171     1,158     1,145     1,132
                    245             250            255           259        262      265       268       270       272       274
                  2,005           1,996          1,982         1,963      1,940    1,914     1,885     1,853     1,818     1,787

                  265.9           421.8          590.5         770.4      959.9   1,157.7   1,362.6   1,573.5   1,789.4   1,994.9
                  167.1           261.4          361.1         465.0      572.1     681.6     792.5     904.4   1,016.5   1,121.7
                   32.4            51.0           71.1          92.6      115.4     139.4     164.6     190.8     217.9     244.5
                    2.9             5.4            8.6          12.4       17.0      22.3      28.3      35.1      42.6      50.1
                   63.4           103.9          149.7         200.3      255.3     314.4     377.2     443.3     512.4     578.7

                    4.5%           7.0%           9.7%         12.4%      15.3%    18.2%     21.1%     24.0%     26.9%     29.5%
                    2.3%           2.4%           2.5%             2.6%    2.7%      2.8%      2.9%      3.0%      3.1%      3.1%


                     63%            62%            61%             60%     60%       59%       58%       57%       57%       56%
                     12%            12%            12%             12%     12%       12%       12%       12%       12%       12%
                      1%             1%             1%              2%      2%        2%        2%        2%        2%        3%
       24%           25%           25%           26%           27%           27%           28%           28%           29%           29%

     180.9         250.4         331.5         422.3         521.3         627.3         738.8         855.0         974.6        1,082.4
     132.3         191.3         255.2         322.8         393.0         464.9         537.9         611.1         684.1          749.5
      20.0          26.0          33.4          42.1          51.9          62.8          74.7          87.6         101.2          114.2
      (4.3)         (9.3)        (13.8)        (17.8)        (21.4)        (24.4)        (27.0)        (29.2)        (30.9)         (32.8)
      32.9          42.3          56.6          75.2          97.8         124.0         153.3         185.5         220.1          251.5

$   120,900   $   179,300   $   235,800   $   290,100   $   342,000   $   391,300   $   438,000   $   481,900   $   523,100   $   563,100
(blank page)
   2021      2022      2023      2024      2025      2026      2027      2028      2029      2030

 6,855     6,956     7,058     7,162     7,268     7,376     7,485     7,596     7,708     7,823
 2,731     2,772     2,813     2,856     2,898     2,942     2,986     3,031     3,076     3,122
 1,390     1,404     1,418     1,432     1,446     1,461     1,475     1,490     1,505     1,520
   333       343       354       364       375       387       398       410       422       435
 2,401     2,437     2,473     2,511     2,548     2,586     2,625     2,665     2,705     2,745

 4,663     4,574     4,499     4,434     4,380     4,335     4,298     4,269     4,247     4,231
 1,510     1,456     1,409     1,367     1,330     1,297     1,267     1,240     1,216     1,194
 1,119     1,108     1,098     1,089     1,081     1,074     1,069     1,064     1,060     1,057
   276       278       281       285       289       294       299       306       313       320
 1,758     1,732     1,711     1,694     1,680     1,670     1,663     1,659     1,658     1,660

2,191.8   2,381.3   2,559.6   2,728.2   2,888.2   3,040.7   3,186.7   3,326.7   3,461.5   3,591.6
1,221.0   1,315.5   1,404.3   1,488.4   1,568.5   1,645.3   1,719.4   1,791.0   1,860.8   1,928.9
  270.5     296.0     320.3     343.4     365.5     386.6     406.8     426.2     444.8     462.7
   57.7      65.3      72.6      79.6      86.3      92.6      98.7     104.4     109.8     114.8
  642.6     704.5     762.4     816.7     867.9     916.1     961.8   1,005.1   1,046.2   1,085.2

 32.0%     34.2%     36.3%     38.1%     39.7%     41.2%     42.6%     43.8%     44.9%     45.9%
   3.2%      3.2%      3.2%      3.1%      3.1%      3.1%      3.0%      3.0%      2.9%      2.9%


   56%       55%       55%       55%       54%       54%       54%       54%       54%       54%
   12%       12%       13%       13%       13%       13%       13%       13%       13%       13%
    3%        3%        3%        3%        3%        3%        3%        3%        3%        3%
       29%            30%            30%            30%            30%            30%            30%            30%            30%            30%

    1,179.9        1,268.6        1,344.4        1,408.9        1,463.1        1,508.3        1,545.1        1,574.2        1,596.4       1,612.1
      808.5          862.0          909.2          951.1          988.4        1,021.8        1,051.6        1,078.5        1,102.8       1,124.7
      126.4          138.0          148.2          157.2          165.0          171.6          177.2          181.9          185.6         188.4
      (34.9)         (37.2)         (40.2)         (43.8)         (48.1)         (53.0)         (58.6)         (64.8)         (71.7)        (79.3)
      279.9          305.8          327.1          344.4          357.9          367.9          374.8          378.7          379.8         378.3

$   602,100    $   640,300    $   678,600    $   717,100    $   756,000    $   795,500    $   869,500    $   912,300    $   956,000    $ 1,000,900
   2031      2032

 7,939     8,057
 3,169     3,217
 1,535     1,551
   448       462
 2,786     2,828

 4,221     4,218
 1,174     1,155
 1,055     1,054
   329       338
 1,664     1,670

3,717.5   3,839.5
1,995.6   2,061.3
  479.9     496.4
  119.5     123.9
1,122.5   1,157.9

 46.8%     47.7%
   2.8%      2.8%


   54%       54%
   13%       13%
    3%        3%
       30%           30%

   1,621.7       1,625.6
   1,144.7       1,162.8
     190.4         191.6
     (87.7)        (96.8)
     374.3         368.0

$ 1,047,000   $ 1,051,000
Electricity                                          Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to six pages.

This page pertains only to the Electricity Sector.                               Figures in this               This year This and
Succeeding pages show the Gasoline and Aviation                                  column apply                   is "hard- later years
Sectors and All Other Sectors (treated as one).                                  either to 2007                 wired" to   pivot off
                                                                                 or throughout                 equal 2009 first tax yr
                                                                                  the analysis.                      2009        2010             2011

Parameters that pivot directly off assumptions in Summary worksheet are shown in blue.
Key parameters that the user may specify here (in this worksheet) are shown in magenta.
                                                                                                                 Note: Blue figure in cell is either a $ amount or a
Annual tax increment, per ton of CO2 emitted OR Annual % growth                                       10.00      programmed to "conditionally" show appropriat
Note: Cell in preceding row is formulated as the greater of (i) value entered in Summary, and (ii) 0.001, to allow carbon tax rate to be set to zero; otherwise, zero w
 Is year shown at top of column equal to or greater than the tax-start year?                                       NO            YES           YES
 Is year shown at top of column greater than the last tax-increment year?                                          NO            NO            NO
Tax year, number                                                                                                          0          1       2
Tax in year shown, per ton of CO2 emitted                                                                      $      -       $ 10.00 $ 20.00
Pounds of CO2 per pound of carbon                                                         3.67
Pounds per metric ton                                                                    2,205
Tax in year shown, per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted                                                    $      -       $ 11.03      $ 22.05

Average Retail Price (cents/kWh), with carbon tax                     in 2007:           9.14                      10.14         10.80        11.42
Price in 2009 is specified to be 2007 price plus 1.0¢/kWh (duplicating the 2005-07 increase), to allow for two years of inflation + escalation. 2007 price is from EIA
Rates after 2009 are assumed same as 2009 except for carbon tax, which increments at declining rate due to assumed reduction in carbon intensity of electricity r

U.S. electricity sales (000 GWh), 2007 (EIA, Ann. E. Rev., Table 8.9).                   3,892                     3,795          3,757         3,813
Assumed growth to 2008                                                                   -1.5%                                Note: Actual 11-month 2008 growth in ne
Assum. growth rate, 2008-2010 (note: some 2008 drop due to weather)                      -1.0%
Assumed growth rate from 2010, w/o carbon tax                                             1.5%
U.S. avg .electric sales growth rate 2001-2006 was 1.43%, per CK calculations in EIA Annual Energy Rev. Table 8.9.

CO2 emissions, lb / kWh generated, 2006                                                  1.273                                CO2 emissions, lb / kWh generated
From CTC spreadsheet, Carbon Contents
Annual decrease rate in CO2 emissions, lb/kWh, w/o carbon tax                            0.00%
                                                                                                                      0.76                 vs. in 2004:
CO2 emissions, lb / kWh, w/o carbon tax                                                   1.27                       1.27           1.27          1.27

U.S. net electric gen. w/o carbon tax, thousand GWh, 2007                                4,160                     4,056          4,016         4,076
EIA Annual Energy Rev., Table 8.2a.
Ratio, Generation to Sales                                                                1.069

CO2 emissions, w/o carbon tax, millions of metric tons                                 2,433.4                    2,341.7       2,318.3        2,353.1
2007 figure is calculated as product of net generation x CO2 per kWh,with appropriate unit conversions

Reduxn in per-kWh CO2 emissions per                   $ 10.00 ton/CO2 tax                 3.0%
CTC guesstimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of wind, natural gas and generation efficiencies as coal grows more costly. Ideally, would be
modeled with time lag. Note that this reduction is assumed to persist despite eventual leveling of carbon tax.

CO2 emissions, lb / kWh, w/ carbon tax                                                                                              1.23          1.20
Figure decreases over time because generators seeking to minimize tax incidence will reduce carbon-intensity of electricity generation (see below).

Carbon emission charge per kWh generated, cents/kWh (w/ carbon tax)                                                                0.62          1.20
Line losses (% of generation that doesn't reach user)                                     6.4%                                Line loss % is from eGrid, according to a
Carbon charge per kWh sold                                                                         in cents/kWh                     0.66          1.28

National reduction in electricity sales due to carbon tax, gigawatt-hours                                                            17            48
U.S. electricity sales with carbon tax, gigawatt-hours                                                             3,795          3,741         3,765
U.S. Net Generation with carbon tax, gigawatt-hours                                                                4,056          3,998         4,024
CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon tax                                                            2,342          2,239         2,186
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectory                               -             79.5         167.1
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to 2009 emissions                                               102.9         155.7
Carbon Tax Revenues, $ millions                                                                                               $ 22,388     $    43,720
% increase in average retail price of electricity over prior year                                                            6.5%          5.7%

Assumed price-elasticity of electricity (long-run)                                      70%
CTC assumption, derived from literature review (principally Bohi, Analyzing Demand Behavior ). Value shown is rough avg for residential,
commercial and industrial sectors. See CTC Web page, http://www.carbontax.org/issues/energy-demand-how-sensitive-to-price/.
No. of years over which long-run elasticity is manifested                               10 CTC assumption.
First year in which carbon tax is effective                                             2010

Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2010                                   7%          14%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2011                                                7%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2012
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2013
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2014
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2015
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2016
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2017
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2018
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2019
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2020
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2021
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2022
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2023
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2024
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2025
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2026
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2027
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2028
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2029
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2030
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2031
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2032

Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2010                               99.6%        99.1%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2011                              100.0%        99.6%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2012                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2013                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2014                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2015                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2016                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2017                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2018                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2019                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2020                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2021                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2022                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2023                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2024                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2025                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2026                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2027                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2028                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2029                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2030                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2031                              100.0%       100.0%
Elec demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                      2032                              100.0%       100.0%

Reduction in electricity usage, relative to ongoing trend w/o carbon tax                                                     0.4%          1.3%
                    2012           2013          2014        2015        2016          2017          2018        2019        2020        2021        2022




l is either a $ amount or a %. Unfort'ly, Excel can't be
 ionally" show appropriate format.
et to zero; otherwise, zero would appear in denominator of some cells.
                YES             YES           YES         YES         YES           YES           YES         YES         YES         YES         YES
                NO              NO            NO          NO          NO            NO            NO          NO          NO          NO          NO
                      3       4       5       6       7                                   8             9       10       11       12       13
               $ 30.00 $ 40.00 $ 50.00 $ 60.00 $ 70.00 $                             80.00 $       90.00 $ 100.00 $ 110.00 $ 120.00 $ 130.00


               $ 33.08      $ 44.10       $ 55.13       $ 66.15     $ 77.18     $    88.20    $    99.23    $ 110.25    $ 121.28    $ 132.30    $ 143.33

                 12.00           12.55         13.06       13.54       13.99         14.41         14.79       15.16       15.49       15.80       16.09
ion. 2007 price is from EIA, Annual Energy Review, Table 8.10.
 bon intensity of electricity resulting from the carbon tax.

                 3,871           3,929         3,988       4,047       4,108         4,170         4,232       4,296       4,360       4,426       4,492
1-month 2008 growth in net generation from 2007 was -1.0%, per http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html, accessed 19-Feb-09.




ns, lb / kWh generated w/ Fossil Fuels, 2006 avg:                       1.805


                     0.82
                    1.27           1.27          1.27        1.27        1.27          1.27          1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27

                 4,137           4,199         4,262       4,326       4,391         4,457         4,524       4,591       4,660       4,730       4,801



                2,388.4         2,424.2       2,460.6    2,497.5     2,534.9        2,572.9       2,611.5    2,650.7      2,690.5     2,730.8     2,771.8




Ideally, would be



                    1.16           1.13          1.09        1.06        1.03          1.00          0.97        0.94        0.91        0.88        0.86
(see below).

                    1.74          2.25          2.73        3.18        3.60          3.99          4.35        4.69        5.01        5.30        5.57
from eGrid, according to a citation (FN 34 in Table A-6) of the Center for Climate Strategies report referenced in the C Emissions worksheet.
                    1.86           2.41          2.92        3.40        3.85          4.27          4.65        5.02        5.35        5.66        5.95

                    94             152           222         302         391           488           593         704          806         899         985
                 3,777           3,777         3,766       3,746       3,717         3,682         3,639       3,591        3,554       3,526       3,507
                 4,037           4,037         4,025       4,004       3,973         3,935         3,890       3,838        3,799       3,769       3,748
                 2,127           2,063         1,996       1,925       1,853         1,780         1,707       1,634        1,569       1,510       1,456
                 261.4           361.1         465.0       572.1       681.6         792.5         904.4     1,016.5      1,121.7     1,221.0     1,315.5
                 214.8           278.6         346.2       416.4       488.3         561.3         634.5       707.5        772.9       831.9       885.4
            $    63,809     $    82,523   $    99,776   $ 115,520   $ 129,736   $ 142,435     $ 153,646     $ 163,417   $ 172,567   $ 181,179   $ 189,319
      5.1%          4.6%          4.1%          3.7%         3.3%           3.0%          2.7%          2.4%           2.2%          2.0%           1.8%



We assume that the impact of the carbon tax on electricity demand is realized over time in a linear fashion. (This is apart from the phase-in of
the carbon tax level itself.) Each cell in the triangular array below denotes the effective price-elasticity in the column year that will apply to the tax
enacted in the row year. Further below, each cell in the rectangular array operates on the corresponding elasticity value and the price increase
due to the tax, to yield a multiplicative factor denoting the shrinkage in demand due to the higher price.

       21%           28%           35%          42%           49%            56%           63%           70%           70%            70%           70%
       14%           21%           28%          35%           42%            49%           56%           63%           70%            70%           70%
        7%           14%           21%          28%           35%            42%           49%           56%           63%            70%           70%
                      7%           14%          21%           28%            35%           42%           49%           56%            63%           70%
                                    7%          14%           21%            28%           35%           42%           49%            56%           63%
                                                 7%           14%            21%           28%           35%           42%            49%           56%
                                                               7%            14%           21%           28%           35%            42%           49%
                                                                              7%           14%           21%           28%            35%           42%
                                                                                            7%           14%           21%            28%           35%
                                                                                                          7%           14%            21%           28%
                                                                                                                        7%            14%           21%
                                                                                                                                       7%           14%
                                                                                                                                                     7%




    98.7%         98.3%         97.8%         97.4%        97.0%          96.5%         96.1%         95.7%          95.7%         95.7%          95.7%
    99.2%         98.8%         98.4%         98.1%        97.7%          97.3%         96.9%         96.5%          96.2%         96.2%          96.2%
    99.7%         99.3%         99.0%         98.6%        98.3%          97.9%         97.6%         97.3%          96.9%         96.6%          96.6%
   100.0%         99.7%         99.4%         99.1%        98.8%          98.5%         98.1%         97.8%          97.5%         97.2%          96.9%
   100.0%        100.0%         99.7%         99.4%        99.2%          98.9%         98.6%         98.3%          98.1%         97.8%          97.5%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.7%        99.5%          99.2%         99.0%         98.7%          98.5%         98.3%          98.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        99.8%          99.5%         99.3%         99.1%          98.9%         98.6%          98.4%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%          99.8%         99.6%         99.4%          99.2%         99.0%          98.8%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%         99.8%         99.6%          99.4%         99.3%          99.1%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         99.8%          99.7%         99.5%          99.3%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%          99.8%         99.7%          99.5%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%         99.9%          99.7%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%          99.9%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         100.0%

      2.4%          3.9%          5.6%          7.5%         9.5%         11.7%          14.0%         16.4%         18.5%          20.3%         21.9%
     2023        2024        2025        2026        2027        2028        2029        2030        2031        2032




  YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES
  NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO
       14       15       16       17       18       19       20       21       22       23
$ 140.00 $ 150.00 $ 160.00 $ 170.00 $ 180.00 $ 190.00 $ 200.00 $ 210.00 $ 220.00 $ 230.00


$ 154.35    $ 165.38    $ 176.40    $ 187.43    $ 198.45    $ 209.48    $ 220.50    $ 231.53    $ 242.55    $ 253.58

   16.36       16.60       16.83       17.03       17.22       17.39       17.54       17.68       17.80       17.91



   4,559       4,628       4,697       4,768       4,839       4,912       4,985       5,060       5,136       5,213




     1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27        1.27

   4,873       4,946       5,020       5,096       5,172       5,250       5,328       5,408       5,490       5,572



  2,813.4     2,855.6    2,898.4      2,941.9    2,986.0      3,030.8     3,076.3    3,122.4     3,169.2     3,216.8




     0.83        0.81        0.78        0.76        0.74        0.71        0.69        0.67        0.65        0.63


    5.82        6.05        6.26        6.45        6.62        6.78        6.92        7.05        7.16        7.27

     6.22        6.46        6.69        6.89        7.08        7.25        7.40        7.54        7.66        7.77

    1,062       1,129      1,189        1,241      1,287        1,328       1,363      1,393       1,419       1,440
    3,498       3,499      3,509        3,527      3,552        3,584       3,622      3,667       3,717       3,773
    3,739       3,740      3,750        3,769      3,796        3,831       3,872      3,919       3,973       4,033
    1,409       1,367      1,330        1,297      1,267        1,240       1,216      1,194       1,174       1,155
  1,404.3     1,488.4    1,568.5      1,645.3    1,719.4      1,791.0     1,860.8    1,928.9     1,995.6     2,061.3
    932.7       974.5    1,011.8      1,045.2    1,075.1      1,101.9     1,126.2    1,148.2     1,168.1     1,186.2
$ 197,268   $ 205,075   $ 212,779   $ 220,412   $ 227,998   $ 235,556   $ 243,101   $ 250,646   $ 258,198   $ 265,764
 1.7%     1.5%     1.3%     1.2%     1.1%     1.0%     0.9%     0.8%     0.7%    0.6%




  70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  63%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  56%      63%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  49%      56%      63%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  42%      49%      56%      63%      70%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  35%      42%      49%      56%      63%      70%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  28%      35%      42%      49%      56%      63%      70%      70%      70%     70%
  21%      28%      35%      42%      49%      56%      63%      70%      70%     70%
  14%      21%      28%      35%      42%      49%      56%      63%      70%     70%
   7%      14%      21%      28%      35%      42%      49%      56%      63%     70%
            7%      14%      21%      28%      35%      42%      49%      56%     63%
                     7%      14%      21%      28%      35%      42%      49%     56%
                              7%      14%      21%      28%      35%      42%     49%
                                       7%      14%      21%      28%      35%     42%
                                                7%      14%      21%      28%     35%
                                                         7%      14%      21%     28%
                                                                  7%      14%     21%
                                                                           7%     14%
                                                                                   7%

 95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%    95.7%   95.7%
 96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%    96.2%   96.2%
 96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%    96.6%   96.6%
 96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%    96.9%   96.9%
 97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%   97.2%
 97.8%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%    97.5%   97.5%
 98.2%    98.0%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%   97.7%
 98.6%    98.4%    98.2%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%   98.0%
 98.9%    98.7%    98.5%    98.3%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%   98.2%
 99.2%    99.0%    98.8%    98.7%    98.5%    98.3%    98.3%    98.3%    98.3%   98.3%
 99.4%    99.2%    99.1%    98.9%    98.8%    98.6%    98.5%    98.5%    98.5%   98.5%
 99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%    99.0%    98.9%    98.8%    98.6%    98.6%   98.6%
 99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%    99.2%    99.1%    99.0%    98.9%    98.7%   98.7%
 99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%    99.2%    99.1%    99.0%    98.9%   98.7%
100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%    99.2%    99.1%    99.0%   98.9%
100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%    99.2%    99.1%   99.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%    99.2%   99.1%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%    99.4%   99.2%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.5%   99.4%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%   99.5%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%   99.6%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%   99.7%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   99.9%

23.3%    24.4%    25.3%    26.0%    26.6%    27.0%    27.3%    27.5%    27.6%    27.6%
Gasoline                    Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to six pages.

This page pertains only to the Gasoline Sector. Other                             Figures in this               This year This and
pages show the Electricity and Aviation Sectors and                               column apply                   is "hard- later years
All Other Sectors (treated as one).                                               either to 2007                 wired" to   pivot off
                                                                                  or throughout                 equal 2009 first tax yr
                                                                                   the analysis.                      2009        2010              2011

Parameters that pivot directly off assumptions in Summary worksheet are shown in blue.
Key parameters that the user may specify here (in this worksheet) are shown in magenta.
                                                                                                                 Note: Blue figure in cell is either a $ amount o
Annual tax increment, per ton of CO2 emitted OR Annual % growth                                         10.00    programmed to "conditionally" show appropr
Note: Cell in preceding row is formulated as the greater of (i) value entered in Summary, and (ii) 0.001, to allow carbon tax rate to be set to zero; otherwise, ze
 Is year shown at top of column equal to or greater than the tax-start year?                                          NO            YES          YES
 Is year shown at top of column greater than the last tax-increment year?                                             NO            NO           NO
Tax year, number                                                                                                            0          1       2
Tax in year shown, per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted                                                      $      -       $ 11.03 $ 22.05
Pounds of CO2 per pound of carbon                                                          3.67
Pounds per metric ton                                                                     2,205

lbs Carbon per 106 Btu, gasoline                                                            42.8
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/techreport/volume08/viii01.pdf
Million Btu per barrel, gasoline                                                           5.253
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/techreport/volume08/viii01.pdf
Btu per gallon, gasoline                                                               125,071
lbs Carbon per gallon, gasoline                                                           5.35
lbs CO2 per gallon, gasoline                                                             19.63

Additional tax on gasoline, cents per gallon, annual increment                                             0.0 ¢/gal                   0.0           0.0



U.S. Motor gasoline 2008, 000 bbls/day                                                   8,943
U.S. Motor gasoline 2008, 000 bbls                                                   3,266,431
2008 daily figure is from KEA oil-consumption spreadhseet based on EIA data. Uses 11-month avg to represent full year, based on fact that 11-month rate equ
U.S. Motor gasoline 2008, million gallons                                              137,190

Assumed gasoline use growth rate beyond 2008, w/o C tax                                       1%
CTC assumption.

Gasoline usage, million gallons, w/o carbon tax                                                                  138,562        139,948      141,347
Note: Users of this spreadsheet may wish to substitute an "official" series of future gasoline sales for this one.

CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax                                                               1,233.4     1,245.7         1,258.2

                                                   $ 10.00 tax
Reduxn in per-gallon CO2 emission rate per $10/ton CO2 ton/CO2 tax                       1.0%
CTC guesstimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of biofuels, hydrogen, etc. as gasoline grows more costly. Ideally, this would be modeled with time
Reduxn in per-gallon CO2 rate from each yr's C tax @ price shown:                          1.0%
Tax per gallon of gasoline                                                                                                      $    0.10    $     0.19
Average retail gasoline price, per gallon                                                           $    2.85                   $    2.95    $     3.04
(Actual 2007 avg = $2.85)

CO2 emissions, lb / gallon                                                                19.63                        19.63         19.41         19.20

Note to reader: Rows directly below are derived through a set of calculations involving rows further below.
National reduction in gasoline sales due to carbon tax, million gallons                                                              187          557
U.S. gasoline sales with carbon tax, million gallons                                                                            139,760       140,790
CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon tax                                                                            1,230        1,226
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectory                                              15.4         32.4
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to 2009 emissions                                                   3.0          7.6
Carbon Tax Revenues, $ millions (w/o gas tax component)                                                                         $ 13,565     $ 27,028
Gas Tax Revenues, $ millions (w/o carbon tax component)                                                                         $    -       $    -
Hybrid Tax Revenues, $ millions (carbon tax + gas tax, combined)                               $ 13,565   $ 27,028

% increase in average retail price of gasoline over prior year                                    3.4%        3.2%

Assumed price-elasticity of demand for gasoline (long-run)                            40%
See discussion in http://www.carbontax.org/issues/energy-demand-how-sensitive-to-price/



No. of years over which long-run elasticity is manifested                                 10


First year in which carbon tax is effective                                          2010

Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2010           4%         8%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2011                      4%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2012
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2013
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2014
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2015
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2016
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2017
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2018
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2019
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2020
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2021
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2022
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2023
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2024
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2025
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2026
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2027
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2028
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2029
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2030
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2031
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2032

Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2010        99.9%      99.7%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2011       100.0%      99.9%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2012       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2013       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2014       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2015       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2016       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2017       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2018       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2019       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2020       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2021       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2022       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2023       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2024       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2025       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2026       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2027       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2028       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2029       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2030       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2031       100.0%     100.0%
Gasoline demand factor due to this yr's price increase                               2032       100.0%     100.0%

Reduction in gasoline usage, relative to ongoing trend w/o carbon tax                             0.1%        0.4%
                      2012          2013          2014          2015          2016          2017          2018          2019          2020             2021          2022




cell is either a $ amount or a %. Unfort'ly, Excel can't be
nditionally" show appropriate format. Note context!
e set to zero; otherwise, zero would appear in denominator of some cells.
                   YES           YES           YES           YES            YES           YES           YES           YES           YES              YES           YES
                   NO            NO            NO            NO             NO            NO            NO            NO            NO               NO            NO
                      3       4       5       6                                   7             8             9       10       11       12       13
               $ 33.08 $ 44.10 $ 55.13 $ 66.15 $                             77.18 $       88.20 $       99.23 $ 110.25 $ 121.28 $ 132.30 $ 143.33




                       0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0              0.0           0.0           0.0




act that 11-month rate equaled 12-month rate in 2007.




                142,761       144,188      145,630       147,086           148,557       150,043       151,543       153,059       154,589          156,135       157,696


                   1,270.8       1,283.5       1,296.3       1,309.3       1,322.4       1,335.6       1,349.0       1,362.5       1,376.1          1,389.8       1,403.7


ould be modeled with time lag. Note that this reduction is assumed to persist despite eventual leveling of carbon tax.

               $     0.28    $     0.38    $     0.46    $     0.55    $      0.64   $      0.72   $      0.80   $      0.88   $      0.96      $      1.03   $      1.10
               $     3.13    $     3.23    $     3.31    $     3.40    $      3.49   $      3.57   $      3.65   $      3.73   $      3.81      $      3.88   $      3.95


                     18.99         18.78         18.57         18.37         18.16         17.96         17.76         17.57         17.38            17.18         16.99


                  1,103         1,821         2,704         3,748          4,947         6,295         7,787         9,417        10,987           12,503        13,970
                141,657       142,367       142,926       143,338        143,610       143,748       143,756       143,642       143,602          143,632       143,726
                  1,220         1,212         1,204         1,194          1,183         1,171         1,158         1,145         1,132            1,119         1,108
                   51.0          71.1          92.6         115.4          139.4         164.6         190.8         217.9         244.5            270.5         296.0
                   13.7          21.1          29.7          39.6           50.5          62.4          75.2          88.9         101.8            114.1         125.7
               $ 40,343      $ 53,464      $ 66,353      $ 78,974      $ 91,294      $103,285      $114,922      $126,183      $137,234         $148,091      $158,768
               $    -        $    -        $    -        $    -        $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -          $     -       $     -
$ 40,343      $   53,464   $   66,353    $   78,974   $   91,294    $ 103,285     $ 114,922     $ 126,183     $ 137,234     $ 148,091     $ 158,768

      3.1%         2.9%          2.8%         2.6%          2.5%          2.4%          2.3%          2.2%          2.1%          2.0%          1.9%




We assume that the impact of the carbon tax on gasoline demand is realized over time in a linear fashion. (This is apart from the phase-in of the
carbon tax level itself.) Each cell in the triangular array below denotes the effective price-elasticity in the column year that will apply to the tax
enacted in the row year. Further below, each cell in the rectangular array operates on the corresponding elasticity value and the price increase
due to the tax, to yield a multiplicative factor denoting the shrinkage in demand due to the higher price.

       12%          16%           20%          24%           28%           32%           36%           40%           40%           40%           40%
        8%          12%           16%          20%           24%           28%           32%           36%           40%           40%           40%
        4%           8%           12%          16%           20%           24%           28%           32%           36%           40%           40%
                     4%            8%          12%           16%           20%           24%           28%           32%           36%           40%
                                   4%           8%           12%           16%           20%           24%           28%           32%           36%
                                                4%            8%           12%           16%           20%           24%           28%           32%
                                                              4%            8%           12%           16%           20%           24%           28%
                                                                            4%            8%           12%           16%           20%           24%
                                                                                          4%            8%           12%           16%           20%
                                                                                                        4%            8%           12%           16%
                                                                                                                      4%            8%           12%
                                                                                                                                    4%            8%
                                                                                                                                                  4%




    99.6%          99.5%        99.3%         99.2%        99.1%        98.9%         98.8%         98.7%         98.7%         98.7%         98.7%
    99.7%          99.6%        99.5%         99.4%        99.2%        99.1%         99.0%         98.9%         98.7%         98.7%         98.7%
    99.9%          99.8%        99.6%         99.5%        99.4%        99.3%         99.2%         99.0%         98.9%         98.8%         98.8%
   100.0%          99.9%        99.8%         99.7%        99.5%        99.4%         99.3%         99.2%         99.1%         99.0%         98.9%
   100.0%         100.0%        99.9%         99.8%        99.7%        99.6%         99.5%         99.4%         99.2%         99.1%         99.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%         99.9%        99.8%        99.7%         99.6%         99.5%         99.4%         99.3%         99.2%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        99.9%        99.8%         99.7%         99.6%         99.5%         99.4%         99.3%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        99.9%         99.8%         99.7%         99.6%         99.5%         99.4%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%         99.9%         99.8%         99.7%         99.6%         99.6%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         99.9%         99.8%         99.7%         99.7%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.9%         99.8%         99.8%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.9%         99.8%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.9%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%         100.0%       100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%

      0.8%         1.3%          1.9%         2.5%          3.3%          4.2%          5.1%          6.2%          7.1%          8.0%          8.9%
       2023             2024          2025          2026          2027          2028          2029          2030          2031             2032




     YES              YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES              YES
     NO               NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO               NO
       14       15       16       17       18       19       20       21       22       23
$ 154.35 $ 165.38 $ 176.40 $ 187.43 $ 198.45 $ 209.48 $ 220.50 $ 231.53 $ 242.55 $ 253.58




           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0              0.0           0.0




    159,273          160,866       162,475       164,100       165,741       167,398       169,072       170,763       172,470          174,195


    1,417.8          1,432.0       1,446.3       1,460.7       1,475.3       1,490.1       1,505.0       1,520.0       1,535.2          1,550.6




$      1.18      $      1.25   $      1.32   $      1.38   $      1.45   $      1.51   $      1.57   $      1.63   $      1.69      $      1.75
$      4.03      $      4.10   $      4.17   $      4.23   $      4.30   $      4.36   $      4.42   $      4.48   $      4.54      $      4.60


      16.81            16.62         16.44         16.26         16.08         15.90         15.73         15.55         15.38            15.21


   15,289           16,466        17,507        18,420        19,208        19,874        20,424        20,859        21,181           21,393
  143,985          144,401       144,967       145,680       146,533       147,524       148,648       149,904       151,289          152,802
    1,098            1,089         1,081         1,074         1,069         1,064         1,060         1,057         1,055            1,054
    320.3            343.4         365.5         386.6         406.8         426.2         444.8         462.7         479.9            496.4
    135.9            144.9         152.6         159.3         164.9         169.5         173.2         176.1         178.0            179.2
$169,402         $180,020      $190,651      $201,319      $212,047      $222,857      $233,770      $244,805      $255,980         $267,313
$     -          $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -       $     -          $     -
$ 169,402   $ 180,020   $ 190,651   $ 201,319   $ 212,047   $ 222,857   $ 233,770   $ 244,805   $ 255,980   $ 267,313

    1.8%        1.7%        1.7%        1.6%        1.5%        1.5%        1.4%        1.4%        1.3%        1.3%




     40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     36%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     32%         36%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     28%         32%         36%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     24%         28%         32%         36%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     20%         24%         28%         32%         36%         40%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     16%         20%         24%         28%         32%         36%         40%         40%         40%         40%
     12%         16%         20%         24%         28%         32%         36%         40%         40%         40%
      8%         12%         16%         20%         24%         28%         32%         36%         40%         40%
      4%          8%         12%         16%         20%         24%         28%         32%         36%         40%
                  4%          8%         12%         16%         20%         24%         28%         32%         36%
                              4%          8%         12%         16%         20%         24%         28%         32%
                                          4%          8%         12%         16%         20%         24%         28%
                                                      4%          8%         12%         16%         20%         24%
                                                                  4%          8%         12%         16%         20%
                                                                              4%          8%         12%         16%
                                                                                          4%          8%         12%
                                                                                                      4%          8%
                                                                                                                  4%

   98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%
   98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%       98.7%
   98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%       98.8%
   98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%
   98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%       98.9%
   99.1%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%
   99.2%       99.1%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%       99.0%
   99.3%       99.3%       99.2%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%
   99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.2%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%
   99.6%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.2%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%       99.1%
   99.7%       99.6%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.3%       99.2%       99.2%       99.2%       99.2%
   99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.5%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.2%       99.2%       99.2%
   99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.3%       99.3%
   99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%       99.3%
  100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.5%       99.4%       99.3%
  100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.5%       99.4%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%       99.5%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%       99.6%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%       99.6%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%       99.7%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%       99.8%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%       99.8%
  100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%      100.0%       99.9%

    9.6%       10.2%       10.8%       11.2%       11.6%       11.9%       12.1%       12.2%       12.3%       12.3%
Aviation                   Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to six pages.

This page pertains only to Aviation. Other pages show                             Figures in this               This year This and
the Electricity Sector, Gasoline and All Other Sectors                            column apply                   is "hard- later years
(treated as one).                                                                 either to 2007                 wired" to   pivot off
                                                                                  or throughout                 equal 2009 first tax yr
                                                                                   the analysis.                      2009        2010

Parameters that pivot directly off assumptions in Summary worksheet are shown in blue.
Key parameters that the user may specify here (in this worksheet) are shown in magenta.
                                                                                                                 Note: Blue figure in cell is either a $ amoun
Annual tax increment, per ton of CO2 emitted OR Annual % growth                                         10.00    programmed to "conditionally" show appro
Note: Cell in preceding row is formulated as the greater of (i) value entered in Summary, and (ii) 0.001, to allow carbon tax rate to be set to zero; otherwise, z
 Is year shown at top of column equal to or greater than the tax-start year?                                         NO             YES
 Is year shown at top of column greater than the last tax-increment year?                                            NO             NO
Tax year, number                                                                                                            0          1
Tax in year shown, per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted                                                      $      -       $ 11.03
Pounds of CO2 per pound of carbon                                                          3.67
Pounds per metric ton                                                                     2,205

Million metric tons of Carbon per quadrillion Btu                                          19.71
Greenhouse Gas Appendix A on emissions, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/87-92rpt/appa.html, under Jet Fuel (for kerosene jet fuels, unpaginated)
Million Btu per barrel, jet fuel                                                            5.67
same as above
Btu per gallon, gasoline                                                               135,000
lbs Carbon per gallon, jet fuel                                                           5.87
lbs CO2 per gallon, jet fuel                                                             21.51

Additional tax on jet fuel, cents per gallon, annual increment                                             0.0 ¢/gal                    0.0


U.S. Jet Fuel supplied, 2008, thousand barrels per day                                    1,517
Jet fuel, 11-month average, calculated from Monthly Energy Review
U.S. Jet Fuel supplied, 2008, million gallons                                           23,272

Assumed jet fuel use growth rate beyond 2008, w/o C tax                                       3%
CTC assumption, incorporating slight operational improvements on the 1996-2006 compound average growth rate in passenger miles of 3.25% (derived in Ko

Jet Fuel usage, million gallons, w/o carbon tax                                                                      23,970         24,689
Note: Users of this spreadsheet may wish to substitute an "official" series of future gasoline sales for this one.

CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax                                                                233.9          240.9

                                                $ 10.00 tax
Reduxn in per-gallon CO2 emission rate per $10/ton CO2 ton/CO2 tax               0.2%
CTC guesstimate. See discussion on same row in Gasoline worksheet. We have divided that figure by 5 to reflect the higher purity required for aircraft engin
Reduxn in per-gallon CO2 rate from each yr's C tax @ price shown:                          0.2%
Tax per gallon of jet fuel                                                                          $     -                     $     0.11
Average retail jet fuel price, per gallon, 2006                                                     $    2.49                   $     2.59
2007 avg w/o taxes = $2.165, per Monthly Energy Review, Table 9.7. Refiner Prices of Petroleum Products to End Users; we have added federal excise tax o
guesstimated an additional 10 cents for state and local levies. Note that 2008 will be far greater, but 2009 looks to be a return to 2007.
CO2 emissions, lb / gallon                                                                21.51                       21.51          21.47

Note to reader: Rows directly below are derived through a set of calculations involving rows further below.
National reduction in jet fuel sales due to carbon tax, million gallons                                                                  63
U.S. jet fuel sales with carbon tax, million gallons                                                                                24,626
CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon tax                                                                                 240
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectory                                                  1.1
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to 2009 emissions                                           (5.9)
Carbon Tax Revenues, $ millions (w/o jet fuel tax component)                                                              $ 2,914
Jet Fuel Tax Revenues, $ millions (w/o carbon tax component)                                                              $    -
Hybrid Tax Revenues, $ millions (carbon tax + jet fuel tax, combined)                                                     $ 2,914

% increase in average retail price of jet fuel over prior year                                                                 4.3%

Assumed price-elasticity of demand for jet fuel (long-run)                               60%
Assumed to be half again as great as that for gasoline, which is referenced in corresponding row in Gasoline worksheet. This reflects fuel's higher proportion



No. of years over which long-run elasticity is manifested                                  10


First year in which carbon tax is effective                                             2010

Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2010                                     6%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2011
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2012
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2013
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2014
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2015
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2016
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2017
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2018
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2019
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2020
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2021
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2022
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2023
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2024
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2025
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2026
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2027
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2028
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2029
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2030
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2031
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                   2032

Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2010                                 99.7%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2011                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2012                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2013                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2014                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2015                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2016                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2017                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2018                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2019                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2020                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2021                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2022                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2023                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2024                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2025                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                  2026                                100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2027             100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2028             100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2029             100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2030             100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2031             100.0%
Jet fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                                   2032             100.0%

Reduction in gasoline usage, relative to ongoing trend w/o carbon tax                                      0.3%

Analysis                  Note: This section has not been included in Print Area.

This section examines the "sources" of CO2 reductions, to determine the relative
amounts associated with the demand side vs. the supply side.

Year chosen for snapshot:                                                2020

Gasoline sales w/o carbon tax                                        35,200
Gasoline sales w carbon tax                                          29,334
Ratio (due to carbon tax)                                                0.83

Emission rate (CO2 per gallon) w/o carbon tax                         21.51
Emission rate (CO2 per gallon) w/ carbon tax                          20.90
Ratio (due to carbon tax)                                                0.97

These entries are shown as a check, to ensure that the ratio here is the product of the two prior ones.
Total CO2 emissions w/o carbon tax                                   343.43
Total CO2 emissions w/ carbon tax                                    278.10
Ratio (due to carbon tax)                                                0.81

Product of two earlier ratios, above                                     0.81

Ratio of "demand" shrinkage factor to
"emissions rate" shrinkage factor:                                       5.89

Share of total reduction attributable to demand                          85%
Share of total reduxn attributable to emission rate                      15%
                         2011         2012             2013          2014          2015          2016          2017          2018          2019            2020




Blue figure in cell is either a $ amount or a %. Unfort'ly, Excel can't be
 mmed to "conditionally" show appropriate format.
on tax rate to be set to zero; otherwise, zero would appear in denominator of some cells.
                      YES           YES              YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES             YES
                      NO            NO               NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO              NO
                         2       3       4       5       6                                           7             8             9       10       11
                  $ 22.05 $ 33.08 $ 44.10 $ 55.13 $ 66.15 $                                     77.18 $       88.20 $       99.23 $ 110.25 $ 121.28




kerosene jet fuels, unpaginated)




                          0.0           0.0              0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0             0.0           0.0




passenger miles of 3.25% (derived in Komanoff spreadsheet modeling/adjusting annual gasoline use data).

                      25,429        26,192           26,978        27,787        28,621        29,480        30,364        31,275        32,213          33,180


                       248.1         255.5            263.2         271.1         279.2         287.6         296.2         305.1         314.3           323.7


e higher purity required for aircraft engines.

                  $     0.21    $     0.32       $     0.43    $     0.53    $     0.64    $     0.74    $     0.85    $     0.95    $     1.05      $     1.15
                  $     2.70    $     2.81       $     2.91    $     3.02    $     3.12    $     3.23    $     3.33    $     3.43    $     3.54      $     3.64
sers; we have added federal excise tax of 21.9 cents and have
 a return to 2007.
                       21.42         21.37            21.32         21.28         21.23         21.18         21.14         21.09         21.04           21.00


                         190           384              647           980         1,385         1,863         2,414         3,040         3,741           4,444
                      25,239        25,808           26,331        26,807        27,236        27,617        27,950        28,235        28,473          28,736
                          245           250              255           259           262           265           268           270           272             274
                          2.9           5.4              8.6         12.4          17.0          22.3          28.3          35.1          42.6            50.1
                    (11.3)   (16.3)   (20.8)   (24.8)   (28.4)   (31.5)   (34.1)   (36.2)   (37.9)   (39.8)
                  $ 5,960 $ 9,121 $ 12,381 $ 15,721 $ 19,124 $ 22,574 $ 26,053 $ 29,543 $ 33,029 $ 36,586
                  $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -
                  $ 5,960 $ 9,121 $ 12,381 $ 15,721 $ 19,124 $ 22,574 $ 26,053 $ 29,543 $ 33,029 $ 36,586

                       4.1%          3.9%          3.8%          3.6%         3.5%          3.3%           3.2%          3.1%          3.0%        2.9%


eet. This reflects fuel's higher proportion of air travel costs as well as more discretionary nature of most air travel vs. most auto travel.



                              We assume that the impact of the carbon tax on jet fuel demand is realized over time in a linear fashion. (This is apart from the phase-in of the
                              carbon tax level itself.) Each cell in the triangular array below denotes the effective price-elasticity in the column year that will apply to the tax
                              enacted in the row year. Further below, each cell in the rectangular array operates on the corresponding elasticity value and the price increase
                              due to the tax, to yield a multiplicative factor denoting the shrinkage in demand due to the higher price.

                        12%           18%           24%          30%           36%           42%           48%            54%           60%         60%
                         6%           12%           18%          24%           30%           36%           42%            48%           54%         60%
                                       6%           12%          18%           24%           30%           36%            42%           48%         54%
                                                     6%          12%           18%           24%           30%            36%           42%         48%
                                                                  6%           12%           18%           24%            30%           36%         42%
                                                                                6%           12%           18%            24%           30%         36%
                                                                                              6%           12%            18%           24%         30%
                                                                                                            6%            12%           18%         24%
                                                                                                                           6%           12%         18%
                                                                                                                                         6%         12%
                                                                                                                                                     6%




                     99.5%         99.2%         99.0%         98.7%        98.5%         98.2%          98.0%         97.7%         97.5%       97.5%
                     99.8%         99.5%         99.3%         99.0%        98.8%         98.6%          98.3%         98.1%         97.8%       97.6%
                    100.0%         99.8%         99.5%         99.3%        99.1%         98.8%          98.6%         98.4%         98.2%       97.9%
                    100.0%        100.0%         99.8%         99.6%        99.3%         99.1%          98.9%         98.7%         98.5%       98.2%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.8%        99.6%         99.4%          99.1%         98.9%         98.7%       98.5%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        99.8%         99.6%          99.4%         99.2%         99.0%       98.8%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         99.8%          99.6%         99.4%         99.2%       99.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%          99.8%         99.6%         99.4%       99.2%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%         99.8%         99.6%       99.5%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%         99.8%       99.6%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       99.8%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                    100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%        100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%

 0.7%     1.5%     2.4%     3.5%     4.8%     6.3%     8.0%     9.7%    11.6%    13.4%
      2021          2022          2023          2024          2025          2026            2027          2028          2029            2030




    YES           YES           YES           YES           YES           YES             YES           YES           YES             YES
    NO            NO            NO            NO            NO            NO              NO            NO            NO              NO
       12       13       14       15       16       17       18       19       20       21
$ 132.30 $ 143.33 $ 154.35 $ 165.38 $ 176.40 $ 187.43 $ 198.45 $ 209.48 $ 220.50 $ 231.53




        0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0             0.0           0.0           0.0             0.0           0.0




    34,175        35,200        36,256        37,344        38,464        39,618          40,807        42,031        43,292          44,591


     333.4         343.4         353.7         364.3         375.3         386.5           398.1         410.1         422.4           435.0




$     1.26    $     1.36    $     1.46    $     1.56    $     1.66    $     1.76      $     1.86    $     1.96    $     2.06      $     2.16
$     3.74    $     3.84    $     3.95    $     4.05    $     4.15    $     4.25      $     4.35    $     4.44    $     4.54      $     4.64


     20.95         20.90         20.86         20.81         20.77         20.72           20.68         20.63         20.58           20.54


     5,152         5,866         6,541         7,179         7,780         8,343           8,870         9,357         9,806          10,212
    29,023        29,334        29,715        30,165        30,684        31,275          31,937        32,674        33,486          34,378
        276           278           281           285           289           294             299           306           313             320
      57.7          65.3          72.6          79.6          86.3          92.6            98.7         104.4         109.8           114.8
                     (41.9)   (44.2)   (47.2)   (50.9)   (55.1)   (60.0)   (65.6)   (71.8)   (78.7)   (86.4)
                  $ 40,223 $ 43,945 $ 47,834 $ 51,912 $ 56,202 $ 60,729 $ 65,518 $ 70,597 $ 75,993 $ 81,738
                  $    -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -    $   -
                  $   40,223    $   43,945   $   47,834   $   51,912   $   56,202   $   60,729   $   65,518   $   70,597   $   75,993   $   81,738

                        2.8%          2.7%        2.6%         2.6%         2.5%         2.4%         2.3%         2.3%         2.2%         2.2%




n. (This is apart from the phase-in of the
e column year that will apply to the tax
g elasticity value and the price increase



                        60%           60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        60%           60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        60%           60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        54%           60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        48%           54%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        42%           48%          54%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        36%           42%          48%          54%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        30%           36%          42%          48%          54%          60%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        24%           30%          36%          42%          48%          54%          60%          60%          60%          60%
                        18%           24%          30%          36%          42%          48%          54%          60%          60%          60%
                        12%           18%          24%          30%          36%          42%          48%          54%          60%          60%
                         6%           12%          18%          24%          30%          36%          42%          48%          54%          60%
                                       6%          12%          18%          24%          30%          36%          42%          48%          54%
                                                    6%          12%          18%          24%          30%          36%          42%          48%
                                                                 6%          12%          18%          24%          30%          36%          42%
                                                                              6%          12%          18%          24%          30%          36%
                                                                                           6%          12%          18%          24%          30%
                                                                                                        6%          12%          18%          24%
                                                                                                                     6%          12%          18%
                                                                                                                                  6%          12%
                                                                                                                                               6%



                       97.5%         97.5%        97.5%        97.5%        97.5%       97.5%        97.5%        97.5%        97.5%        97.5%
                       97.6%         97.6%        97.6%        97.6%        97.6%       97.6%        97.6%        97.6%        97.6%        97.6%
                       97.7%         97.7%        97.7%        97.7%        97.7%       97.7%        97.7%        97.7%        97.7%        97.7%
                       98.0%         97.8%        97.8%        97.8%        97.8%       97.8%        97.8%        97.8%        97.8%        97.8%
                       98.3%         98.1%        97.9%        97.9%        97.9%       97.9%        97.9%        97.9%        97.9%        97.9%
                       98.6%         98.4%        98.2%        98.0%        98.0%       98.0%        98.0%        98.0%        98.0%        98.0%
                       98.8%         98.6%        98.4%        98.2%        98.0%       98.0%        98.0%        98.0%        98.0%        98.0%
                       99.1%         98.9%        98.7%        98.5%        98.3%       98.1%        98.1%        98.1%        98.1%        98.1%
                       99.3%         99.1%        98.9%        98.7%        98.5%       98.4%        98.2%        98.2%        98.2%        98.2%
                       99.5%         99.3%        99.1%        98.9%        98.8%       98.6%        98.4%        98.2%        98.2%        98.2%
                       99.7%         99.5%        99.3%        99.1%        99.0%       98.8%        98.6%        98.5%        98.3%        98.3%
                       99.8%         99.7%        99.5%        99.3%        99.2%       99.0%        98.8%        98.7%        98.5%        98.4%
                      100.0%         99.8%        99.7%        99.5%        99.4%       99.2%        99.0%        98.9%        98.7%        98.6%
                      100.0%        100.0%        99.8%        99.7%        99.5%       99.4%        99.2%        99.0%        98.9%        98.7%
                      100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        99.8%        99.7%       99.5%        99.4%        99.2%        99.0%        98.9%
                      100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%        99.8%       99.7%        99.5%        99.4%        99.2%        99.0%
                      100.0%        100.0%       100.0%       100.0%       100.0%       99.8%        99.7%        99.5%        99.4%        99.2%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.8%    99.7%    99.5%    99.4%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.8%    99.7%    99.5%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.8%    99.7%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.8%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%

15.1%    16.7%    18.0%    19.2%    20.2%    21.1%    21.7%    22.3%    22.7%    22.9%
      2031          2032




    YES           YES
    NO            NO
       22       23
$ 242.55 $ 253.58




        0.0           0.0




    45,928        47,306


     448.1         461.5




$     2.25    $     2.35
$     4.74    $     4.84


     20.49         20.45


    10,576        10,893
    35,353        36,413
        329           338
     119.5         123.9
   (94.7)   (103.8)
$ 87,863 $ 94,404
$    -    $    -
$   87,863   $   94,404

     2.1%         2.1%




      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      60%          60%
      54%          60%
      48%          54%
      42%          48%
      36%          42%
      30%          36%
      24%          30%
      18%          24%
      12%          18%
       6%          12%
                    6%

    97.5%        97.5%
    97.6%        97.6%
    97.7%        97.7%
    97.8%        97.8%
    97.9%        97.9%
    98.0%        98.0%
    98.0%        98.0%
    98.1%        98.1%
    98.2%        98.2%
    98.2%        98.2%
    98.3%        98.3%
    98.4%        98.4%
    98.4%        98.4%
    98.6%        98.4%
    98.7%        98.6%
    98.9%        98.7%
    99.0%        98.9%
 99.2%   99.0%
 99.4%   99.2%
 99.5%   99.4%
 99.7%   99.5%
 99.8%   99.7%
100.0%   99.8%

23.0%    23.0%
"Other"                    Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to six pages.

This page pertains to all CO2 emissions from fuel burning, other than those       Figures in this               This year This and
from electricity, gasoline and aviation, which are treated in preceding           column apply                   is "hard- later years
worksheets. Since this "sector" lumps together hundreds of disparate              either to 2007                 wired" to   pivot off
sectors, our treatment is less rigorous than for those sectors.                   or throughout                 equal 2009 first tax yr
                                                                                   the analysis.
                                                                                                                      2009         2010         2011
Parameters that pivot directly off assumptions in Summary worksheet are shown in blue.
Key parameters that the user may specify here (in this worksheet) are shown in magenta.
                                                                                                                 Note: Blue figure in cell is either a $ amoun
Annual tax increment, per ton of CO2 emitted OR Annual % growth                                         10.00    programmed to "conditionally" show appro
Note: Cell in preceding row is formulated as the greater of (i) value entered in Summary, and (ii) 0.001, to allow carbon tax rate to be set to zero; otherwise, z
 Is year shown at top of column equal to or greater than the tax-start year?                                        NO          YES         YES
 Is year shown at top of column greater than the last tax-increment year?                                           NO          NO          NO
Tax year, number                                                                                                           0          1       2
Tax in year shown, per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted                                                     $      -       $ 11.03 $ 22.05
Pounds of CO2 per pound of carbon                                                          3.67
Pounds per metric ton                                                                     2,205

lbs Carbon per 106 Btu, "Other" fuels                                                          35
CTC guesstimate, set at less than that of gasoline, to reflect prominence of natural gas in "Other" sector.
lbs CO2 per 106 Btu, "Other" fuels                                                        128.3

CO2 emissions from "Other" sector, million metric tons, 2007                            2,111.2
Calculated as all emissions from fossil fuel burning, in CO2 Emissions wksheet, except for electricity, gasoline, aviation.
CO2 emissions from "Other" sector, billion pounds, 2007                                 4,655.2

Implied "Other" fuel usage, trillion Btu's, 2007                                         36,274

T h I s r o w k e p t e m p t y t o m a I n t a I n c o n s I s t e n c y w I t h e l e c t r I c I t y, g a s o l I n e a n d a v I a t I o n w
T h I s r o w k e p t e m p t y t o m a I n t a I n c o n s I s t e n c y w I t h e l e c t r I c I t y, g a s o l I n e a n d a v I a t I o n w

Assumed growth to 2008 (same as for electricity)                                           -1.5%
Assumed growth rate, 2008 to 2010 (ditto)                                                  -1.0%
Assumed growth rate from 2010, w/o carbon tax (ditto)                                       1.5%
Note: Users of this spreadsheet may wish to substitute an "official" series of future sales for this one.

"Other" fuel usage, trillion Btu's, w/o carbon tax                                                                  35,373      35,019      35,544
Note: Users of this spreadsheet may wish to substitute an "official" series of future sales for this one.

CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax                                                           2,058.7       2,038.1     2,068.7

                                                   $ 10.00 tax
Reduxn in per-gallon CO2 emission rate per $10/ton CO2 ton/CO2 tax                       1.0%
CTC guesstimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of biofuels, hydrogen, etc. as conventional fuels grow more costly.

Tax per million btu of fuel                                                                         $   -                         0.63       1.26
Average user price of "other" fuel, per million Btu                                                 $ 10.00                    $ 10.63    $ 11.26
(base price is CTC guesstimate)

CO2 emissions, lb / million Btu, w/ carbon tax                                            128.3                      128.3        126.9       125.5

Note to reader: Rows directly below are derived through a set of calculations involving rows further below.

National reduction in "other" fuels sales due to carbon tax, trillion btu                                               108                    318
National "other" fuels sales with carbon tax, trillion btu                                                          34,912                  35,226
 CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon tax                                                              2,009                  2,005
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectory                                 28.7                   63.4
Reduction in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to 2009 emissions                                    49.2                   53.5
Carbon Tax Revenues, $ millions                                                                                   $ 22,155 $                44,216
T h I s r o w k e p t e m p t y t o m a I n t a I n c o n s I s t e n c y w I t h e l e c t r I c I t y, g a s o l I n e a n d               avIatIon w
T h I s r o w k e p t e m p t y t o m a I n t a I n c o n s I s t e n c y w I t h e l e c t r I c I t y, g a s o l I n e a n d               avIatIon w
% increase in average retail price of "Other" fuels over prior year                                                 6.3%     5.8%

Assumed price-elasticity (long-term)                                                 50%
See discussion in http://www.carbontax.org/issues/energy-demand-how-sensitive-to-price/ for background; However,
because we have not analyzed "Other" fuels, the figure here is a guesstimate.

No. of years over which long-run elasticity is manifested                              10


First year in which carbon tax is effective                                          2010

Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2010                             5%      10%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2011                                      5%
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2012
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2013
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2014
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2015
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2016
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2017
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2018
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2019
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2020
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2021
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2022
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2023
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2024
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2025
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2026
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2027
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2028
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2029
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2030
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2031
Effective price-elasticity in this column's year, for tax enacted in:                2032

"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2010                           99.7%    99.4%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2011                          100.0%    99.7%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2012                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2013                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2014                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2015                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2016                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2017                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2018                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2019                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2020                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2021                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2022                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2023                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2024                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2025                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2026                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2027                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2028                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2029                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2030                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2031                          100.0%   100.0%
"Other" fuel demand factor due to this yr's price increase                           2032                          100.0%   100.0%

Reduction in "other" fuel usage, relative to ongoing trend w/o carbon tax                                           0.3%     0.9%
                       2012        2013         2014         2015            2016       2017       2018       2019       2020       2021       2022



n cell is either a $ amount or a %. Unfort'ly, Excel can't be
onditionally" show appropriate format.
be set to zero; otherwise, zero would appear in denominator of some cells.
                   YES          YES          YES          YES         YES            YES        YES        YES        YES        YES        YES
                   NO           NO           NO           NO          NO             NO         NO         NO         NO         NO         NO
                        3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10       11       12       13
                 $ 33.08 $ 44.10 $ 55.13 $ 66.15 $ 77.18 $ 88.20 $ 99.23 $ 110.25 $ 121.28 $ 132.30 $ 143.33




and avIatIon worksheets
and avIatIon worksheets




                   36,078       36,619       37,168      37,726       38,291         38,866     39,449     40,041     40,641     41,251     41,869


                  2,099.8      2,131.2      2,163.2      2,195.7     2,228.6         2,262.0    2,296.0    2,330.4    2,365.4    2,400.8    2,436.8




                    1.86         2.46        3.04         3.60         4.16            4.70       5.23       5.74       6.25       6.74       7.22
                 $ 11.86      $ 12.46     $ 13.04      $ 13.60      $ 14.16         $ 14.70    $ 15.23    $ 15.74    $ 16.25    $ 16.74    $ 17.22


                     124.1        122.8        121.4        120.1       118.8          117.4      116.2      114.9      113.6      112.4      111.1



              627    1,029    1,520     2,095     2,750     3,479     4,278     5,144     5,964     6,745     7,493
           35,451   35,590   35,648    35,630    35,542    35,387    35,170    34,897    34,678    34,506    34,376
            1,996    1,982    1,963     1,940     1,914     1,885     1,853     1,818     1,787     1,758     1,732
            103.9    149.7    200.3     255.3     314.4     377.2     443.3     512.4     578.7     642.6     704.5
             62.9     77.2     95.8     118.4     144.6     173.9     206.1     240.7     272.1     300.5     326.4
         $ 66,012 $ 87,386 $ 108,206 $ 128,353 $ 147,727 $ 166,243 $ 183,831 $ 200,435 $ 216,679 $ 232,615 $ 248,288
and avIatIon worksheets
and avIatIon worksheets
      5.4%          5.0%          4.7%         4.3%          4.1%          3.8%          3.6%         3.4%          3.2%          3.0%          2.9%




We assume that the impact of the carbon tax on electricity demand is realized over time in a linear fashion. (This is apart from the phase-in of
the carbon tax level itself.) Each cell in the triangular array below denotes the effective price-elasticity in the column year that will apply to the
tax enacted in the row year. Further below, each cell in the rectangular array operates on the corresponding elasticity value and the price
increase due to the tax, to yield a multiplicative factor denoting the shrinkage in demand due to the higher price.

       15%           20%          25%           30%           35%           40%          45%           50%           50%           50%          50%
       10%           15%          20%           25%           30%           35%          40%           45%           50%           50%          50%
        5%           10%          15%           20%           25%           30%          35%           40%           45%           50%          50%
                      5%          10%           15%           20%           25%          30%           35%           40%           45%          50%
                                   5%           10%           15%           20%          25%           30%           35%           40%          45%
                                                 5%           10%           15%          20%           25%           30%           35%          40%
                                                               5%           10%          15%           20%           25%           30%          35%
                                                                             5%          10%           15%           20%           25%          30%
                                                                                          5%           10%           15%           20%          25%
                                                                                                        5%           10%           15%          20%
                                                                                                                      5%           10%          15%
                                                                                                                                    5%          10%
                                                                                                                                                 5%




    99.1%         98.8%         98.5%        98.2%         97.9%         97.6%         97.3%        97.0%         97.0%         97.0%         97.0%
    99.4%         99.2%         98.9%        98.6%         98.3%         98.0%         97.8%        97.5%         97.2%         97.2%         97.2%
    99.7%         99.5%         99.2%        99.0%         98.7%         98.4%         98.2%        97.9%         97.7%         97.4%         97.4%
   100.0%         99.8%         99.5%        99.3%         99.0%         98.8%         98.5%        98.3%         98.1%         97.8%         97.6%
   100.0%        100.0%         99.8%        99.5%         99.3%         99.1%         98.9%        98.6%         98.4%         98.2%         98.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        99.8%         99.6%         99.4%         99.2%        98.9%         98.7%         98.5%         98.3%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         99.8%         99.6%         99.4%        99.2%         99.0%         98.8%         98.6%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         99.8%         99.6%        99.4%         99.3%         99.1%         98.9%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.8%        99.6%         99.5%         99.3%         99.1%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        99.8%         99.7%         99.5%         99.3%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%         99.8%         99.7%         99.5%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         99.9%         99.7%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%         99.9%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%
   100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%        100.0%        100.0%

      1.7%          2.8%          4.1%         5.6%          7.2%          9.0%        10.8%         12.8%         14.7%        16.4%         17.9%
     2023        2024        2025        2026        2027        2028        2029        2030        2031        2032




  YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES         YES
  NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO          NO
       14       15       16       17       18       19       20       21       22       23
$ 154.35 $ 165.38 $ 176.40 $ 187.43 $ 198.45 $ 209.48 $ 220.50 $ 231.53 $ 242.55 $ 253.58




  42,498      43,135      43,782      44,439      45,105      45,782      46,469      47,166      47,873      48,591


 2,473.4     2,510.5     2,548.2     2,586.4     2,625.2     2,664.6     2,704.5     2,745.1     2,786.3     2,828.1




   7.69        8.15        8.60        9.04        9.46        9.88       10.28       10.68       11.06       11.44
$ 17.69     $ 18.15     $ 18.60     $ 19.04     $ 19.46     $ 19.88     $ 20.28     $ 20.68     $ 21.06     $ 21.44


    109.9       108.7       107.5       106.3       105.1       104.0       102.8       101.7       100.6        99.5



   8,166       8,771       9,311       9,792      10,217      10,587      10,906      11,175      11,394      11,565
  34,331      34,364      34,471      34,646      34,889      35,194      35,562      35,991      36,479      37,026
   1,711       1,694       1,680       1,670       1,663       1,659       1,658       1,660       1,664       1,670
   762.4       816.7       867.9       916.1       961.8     1,005.1     1,046.2     1,085.2     1,122.5     1,157.9
   347.7       365.0       378.4       388.5       395.3       399.3       400.4       398.9       394.9       388.6
$ 264,093   $ 280,108   $ 296,404   $ 313,047   $ 363,935   $ 383,252   $ 403,148   $ 423,685   $ 444,923   $ 423,512
 2.7%     2.6%     2.5%     2.3%     2.2%     2.1%     2.0%     1.9%     1.9%    1.8%




  50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  45%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  40%      45%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  35%      40%      45%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  30%      35%      40%      45%      50%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  25%      30%      35%      40%      45%      50%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  20%      25%      30%      35%      40%      45%      50%      50%      50%     50%
  15%      20%      25%      30%      35%      40%      45%      50%      50%     50%
  10%      15%      20%      25%      30%      35%      40%      45%      50%     50%
   5%      10%      15%      20%      25%      30%      35%      40%      45%     50%
            5%      10%      15%      20%      25%      30%      35%      40%     45%
                     5%      10%      15%      20%      25%      30%      35%     40%
                              5%      10%      15%      20%      25%      30%     35%
                                       5%      10%      15%      20%      25%     30%
                                                5%      10%      15%      20%     25%
                                                         5%      10%      15%     20%
                                                                  5%      10%     15%
                                                                           5%     10%
                                                                                   5%

 97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%    97.0%   97.0%
 97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%    97.2%   97.2%
 97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%    97.4%   97.4%
 97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%    97.6%   97.6%
 97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%    97.7%   97.7%
 98.1%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%    97.9%   97.9%
 98.4%    98.2%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%    98.0%   98.0%
 98.7%    98.5%    98.3%    98.1%    98.1%    98.1%    98.1%    98.1%    98.1%   98.1%
 98.9%    98.8%    98.6%    98.4%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%    98.2%   98.2%
 99.2%    99.0%    98.8%    98.7%    98.5%    98.3%    98.3%    98.3%    98.3%   98.3%
 99.4%    99.2%    99.1%    98.9%    98.7%    98.6%    98.4%    98.4%    98.4%   98.4%
 99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.1%    99.0%    98.8%    98.7%    98.5%    98.5%   98.5%
 99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%    99.0%    98.9%    98.7%    98.6%   98.6%
 99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%    99.0%    98.9%    98.7%   98.6%
100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%    99.0%    98.9%   98.7%
100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%    99.0%   98.9%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%    99.2%   99.0%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%    99.3%   99.2%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%    99.4%   99.3%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%    99.6%   99.4%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%    99.7%   99.6%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%    99.9%   99.7%
100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   100.0%   99.9%

19.2%    20.3%    21.3%    22.0%    22.7%    23.1%    23.5%    23.7%    23.8%    23.8%
                                         Carbon Tax: CO2 Impact
                                 9,000
                                 8,000
Millions of Metric Tons of CO2




                                 7,000
                                 6,000
                                 5,000
                                 4,000
                                 3,000
                                                           No Carbon Tax

                                 2,000
Graph_Oil                                             Note: This worksheet hasn't yet been modified to reflect the economic downturn (unlike the previous [CO

All figures are for USA, in thousands of barrels of petroleum products supplied per day.
                                                                           2007          2010                                 2011

Oil consumption, 000 bbl/d, w/o taxes                                                         20,680          20,027        20,328          20,632
Petroleum savings, 000 barrels/day                                                                               259           564             912
Oil consumption, 000 bbl/d, w taxes shown in Summary                                          20,680          19,768        19,763          19,721

2007 oil consumption is full-year average (total) Petroleum Products Supplied, from Monthly Energy Review, mer_data.asp-5, downloaded 8-Jan-2009.
Approx. 2007 ratio to 2008                                                                                      94%
Rounded from 11-month decrease of 6.17% calculated from data in preceding MER table.
Post-2008 oil consumption is increased at assumed annual rate of:                                         1.5%         Note that we assume 1% for gasoline and 3% for je




                                                              Carbon Tax: Petroleum Impact
                                             30,000
         Thousand Barrels/day of Petroleum




                                             25,000


                                             20,000


                                             15,000


                                             10,000                                                              No Carbon Tax, No
                                                                                                                 Petroleum Tax

                                                                                                                 Tax Levels selected in
                                              5,000                                                              Summary worksheet


                                                 -
                                                      2007   2011    2013     2015    2017    2019     2021      2023      2025      2027     2029
wnturn (unlike the previous [CO2] graph, which has).


                        2013                    2015              2017              2019              2021

                     20,942         21,256    21,575   21,899   22,227   22,560   22,899   23,242   23,591
                      1,299          1,724     2,183    2,675    3,197    3,746    4,322    4,879    5,421
                     19,643         19,532    19,392   19,223   19,030   18,814   18,577   18,363   18,170

asp-5, downloaded 8-Jan-2009.



assume 1% for gasoline and 3% for jet fuel.




          2029      2031
           2023              2025              2027              2029

23,945   24,304   24,669   25,039   25,414   25,795   26,182   26,575   26,974
 5,951    6,450    6,922    7,370    7,795    8,199    8,583    8,950    9,300
17,994   17,854   17,746   17,669   17,620   17,597   17,599   17,625   17,674
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions



All figures are in million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2).
2010 figures here differ slightly from those in Summary.

                                                                           Actual data
                                                                  2005              2007

Electricity Consumption (Table 11)                                2397.4         2433.4    40.6%
 Coal                                                             1963.9         1979.7
 Natural Gas                                                       320.5          376.4
 Oil                                                               101.3           65.7
 MSW                                                                11.4           11.2
 Geothermal                                                          0.4            0.4


Motor Gasoline                                                    1211.3         1208.3    20.2%

Aviation                                                           246.3          238.0    4.0%

Other                                                             2120.3         2111.2    35.2%

Total                                                             5975.3         5990.9
Outtakes

This worksheet was originally added to estimate the CO2 reductions, petroleum savings and revenues
that would result from adding, each year for 15 years, a 10 cent-a-gallon tax on jet and diesel fuels, to
the carbon tax and gasoline tax modeled in the rest of this spreadsheet.

The calculations here were rough approximations based on prorating. None of them are currently used
in the "live" versions of this spreadsheet (e.g., in the Summary)..


Major Uses of Federally Taxed Petroleum Fuels for Transport in the US, 2000 (million bbl/day)
Cars (includes SUV’s, minivans, pickups)      Gasoline, almost entirely       7.855
Recreational Boats, ATV's, etc.               Gasoline, almost entirely       0.203
Trucks (weighing > 8500 lbs)                  Diesel, almost entirely         2.460
Air travel (passenger only, i.e., no freight) Jet fuel                        1.287
Air freight                                   Jet fuel                        0.212

(Diesel fuel is shown above because it was included in a prior "trial-balloon" version of the 50/50 bill.)

Figures are from spreadsheet analysis by C. Komanoff in early 2002 for KEA report, "Ending The Oil Age," and are distilled from U.S. DOE data.

The proposed legislation being modeled here would impose a 50 cent-a-gallon tax (via a 5-year phase-in) on fuels
that are subject to federal taxes as listed in Paragraph (2) of section 4081(a) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986.
That paragraph applies to gasoline, aviation gasoline, diesel fuel and kerosene. That paragraph is accessible here:
http://www.taxalmanac.org/index.php/Internal_Revenue_Code:Sec._4081._Imposition_of_tax

Consolidation of the Above Table
Gasoline                                                                                               8.1
Diesel + Jet (Aviation) Fuel                                                                           4.0
Ratio of Diesel + Jet (Aviation) to Gasoline:                                                         49%
Jet (Aviation) Fuel alone                                                                              1.5
Ratio of Jet (Aviation) to Gasoline:                                                                  19%
e distilled from U.S. DOE data.

				
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Description: Excel Tax Usage Spreadsheet document sample