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					Oaks Park High School
               CENTRE NUMBER 13346



  Maths Department

  GCSE Statistics (1389)
       http://web.mac.com/froggatt/iWeb/Statistics/




          Student Handbook
                       Version 3.1




   Name _______________________________________


     Candidate Number _______________________
The Statistics Handbook: Contents

Section A: Study Pack
Weekly Timetable
Personal Record Keeping
Email and Internet Use
Autograph Software
Excel and Other Software
Module Content (Blocks 1 to 5)
Private Study Notes (Blocks 1 to 5)
Frequently Asked Questions

Section B: Official Specification
Introduction
Scheme of Assessment
Internal Assessment (About the Coursework)
Specification Content (“Syllabus”) – Higher Tier

Section C: The Coursework Project
The Handling Data Cycle
Coursework Notes
Coursework Planning Sheet
Writing Up Your Coursework
Assessment Criteria (How it will be marked)
Sample Candidate Record Form
JCQ Notice To All Candidates

Section D: Specimen Paper
Edexcel 1389 Specimen Paper Higher Tier
Sample Statement of Results
Formulae Sheet (Higher Tier)
     Personal Record Keeping

Block 1
Date       12th Sept       19th Sept       26th Sept     3rd Oct       10th Oct     17th Oct        31st Oct
Attendance
H/W Grade
Test Result (%), Grade & Comments:


Block 2
Date            7th Nov          14th Nov        21st Nov           28th Nov      5th Dec             -
Attendance
H/W Grade
Test Result (%), Grade & Comments:

Block 3
Date           12th Dec          9th Jan          16th Jan          23rd Jan      30th Jan            -
Attendance
H/W Grade
Test Result (%), Grade & Comments:

Block 4
Date            27th Feb         5th Mar         12th Mar              -             -                -
Attendance
H/W Grade
Test Result (%), Grade & Comments:

Block 5
Date           19th Mar          26th Mar         2nd Apr           23rd Apr      30th Apr            -
Attendance
H/W Grade
Test Result (%), Grade & Comments:

Revision Classes
Date          6/5          7/5         13/5       20/5       21/5          3/6    10/6       11/6         17/6
Attendance

Mocks
Date                                           14th May                                  4th Jun
Result (%) and Grade

Final Title of Project:




                                              PREDICTED GRADE _____
    Block 1 Notes & Questions
Record on this page the topics from Block 1 which you feel need most attention. Be honest with
yourself – this is for your benefit. What bits let you down on the homeworks? Which areas will
you have to speak to your teacher about? What do you need to improve in order to do even better
on this block? Which topics will form an important part of your revision programme? Also,
record the topics which you feel are strengths – this will give you confidence.
    Block 2 Notes & Questions
Record on this page the topics from Block 2 which you feel need most attention. Be honest with
yourself – this is for your benefit. What bits let you down on the homeworks? Which areas will
you have to speak to your teacher about? What do you need to improve in order to do even better
on this block? Which topics will form an important part of your revision programme? Also,
record the topics which you feel are strengths – this will give you confidence.
    Block 3 Notes & Questions
Record on this page the topics from Block 3 which you feel need most attention. Be honest with
yourself – this is for your benefit. What bits let you down on the homeworks? Which areas will
you have to speak to your teacher about? What do you need to improve in order to do even better
on this block? Which topics will form an important part of your revision programme? Also,
record the topics which you feel are strengths – this will give you confidence.
    Block 4 Notes & Questions
Record on this page the topics from Block 4 which you feel need most attention. Be honest with
yourself – this is for your benefit. What bits let you down on the homeworks? Which areas will
you have to speak to your teacher about? What do you need to improve in order to do even better
on this block? Which topics will form an important part of your revision programme? Also,
record the topics which you feel are strengths – this will give you confidence.
    Block 5 Notes & Questions
Record on this page the topics from Block 5 which you feel need most attention. Be honest with
yourself – this is for your benefit. What bits let you down on the homeworks? Which areas will
you have to speak to your teacher about? What do you need to improve in order to do even better
on this block? Which topics will form an important part of your revision programme? Also,
record the topics which you feel are strengths – this will give you confidence.
Email, The Website and Internet Use

Continuing its successful use last year, we shall once again be making use of our very own
Course Website. All Oaks Park GCSE Statistics students are invited to access the new Course
Website at http://web.mac.com/froggatt/iWeb/Statistics/ which will be updated frequently
throughout the course. Use the website to find out about homeworks, to download resources, to
print off model answers to homeworks and tests and to access relevant links.

When you need to contact me about any aspect of the course, it is best if possible to find your
teacher in school and arrange a convenient appointment. Otherwise, email your questions to me
at MrF@MathsIsFun.net and I shall do my best to get a reply off to you as soon as is reasonable.
In the past I have explained whole topics again in an email, so no question is too big or too
small. It is far better to ask for help early on than to leave it until it’s grown too big to handle.

We like to receive homeworks on the Friday morning following the Wednesday lesson so that
we can mark them over the weekend. I appreciate that this is sometimes difficult for students, so
have provided the alternative of electronic submissions – these should be either emailed to me or
else uploaded onto the school intranet in your “work” folder. Please note that attachments should
be only of these forms:

      Microsoft Word (.doc) for most documents
      Microsoft Excel (.xls) or Comma Separated Variables (.csv) for datafiles
      Microsoft PowerPoint (.ppt or .pps) for presentations
      Autograph files (.agg) for graphs and data
      Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) or picture (e.g. .tif, .bmp, .jpg) for scanned work
      Plaintext (.txt) or Rich Text Format (.rtf) for simple text

If these look confusing, please ask me for advice. I have a Mac (obviously?) and it grudgingly
accepts most PC offerings, but it does not like “Publisher” or “Works” or “Star Office”. Please
ask if you only have this software – there are ways around it.

I cannot stress enough the importance of the two Golden Rules:

   1. ALWAYS be sensible about your use of the Internet. Use trusted sites for doing your
      research and watch out for viruses and other unpleasant surprises. Check that you have
      up-to-date anti-virus software and talk to your parents about the need for filters and
      firewalls.
   2. ALWAYS back up your work. Only the fool thinks his computer won’t crash. Floppy
      disks are almost obsolete but still useful; even better are the USB drives they sell in
      school. Consider a half-termly save of everything onto CD too. With things like
      coursework you should be making daily copies. You won’t want to see “file not found”
      messages the night before the deadline, believe me.

Try not to spend too much time on the computer.
There’s a lot to be said for good ol’ reading and writing after all!
Autograph 3.2

Autograph is a powerful package for processing and displaying data in one, two or three
dimensions. Oaks Park High School has purchased a Student License, which means that
everyone in the school is entitled to a free copy of the software for their personal use on one
computer at home. You can bring in a large flash drive to copy the installation file off the school
server, or else pay me £1 for a copy on CD. When you install it, you have to type in the Student
Serial Number for Oaks Park, which is you will be given in class. I must advise you, however,
that it is illegal to pass this software on to anyone outside Oaks Park.

Autograph covers every aspect of the GCSE Statistics syllabus, and obviously goes way beyond.
It is vastly superior to Excel’s Graph Wizard which can only do a few of the graph types we
need, and when it does them they tend to be rather misleading. Autograph will be very useful for
both homeworks and coursework, and in fact your project will be made much easier as a result.
We shall be using Autograph frequently in the Statistics classes, so you will soon get used to the
way it works.

It’s an excellent idea to visit the Autograph website at http://www.autograph-math.com where
you will find many Flash videos showing you how to use all the basic functions:




The manual comes under the Help menu, or else you can order a printed copy for about £10. You
may also be interested in the Support section of the website, which includes a forum for asking
questions and seeing what others are doing with the software. Lots of students are using this!
Excel
Excel is just a spreadsheet – it is widely used for few other reasons than the fact that it is widely
used. There are others, but at the end of the day it helps to go with the popular choice. However,
it is virtually no use as a Graph Drawing program (I think the official phrase is “pants”), so
please avoid the temptation to use those well-meaning but meaningless 3D graphs that are on
offer. Autograph is much better for the all graphs you need in this course, although sometimes a
quick scattergraph or bar chart in Excel is all that is required and so is acceptable.

However, as a spreadsheet, Excel does its job very well – you must get used to the idea of
treating it as an enormous programmable calculator. It loves crunching huge amounts of data,
and will be invaluable for handling all the data in your project before you pass it to Autograph to
run all the analysis. You will be taught some very powerful Excel techniques and formulae
which you can use in other subjects too.

I will introduce you to the very useful techniques of using macros and form controls in your
projects so that you can start to automate common tasks. I will provide you with Excel programs
written by me and others which you will find very handy for homeworks and coursework.

Data Analysis Toolpack
This is something you can start using straight away. It’s built into Excel, but you have to load it
in order to make it available. This is what you need to do:

                                         1. Select Menu: Tools – Add-Ins… to get the
                                         box on the left.

                                         2. Tick the box Analysis Toolpack and click
                                         OK.

                                         3. Select Menu: Tools again and you should see
                                         Data Analysis… at the bottom of the list.

                                         We shall explore the use of this feature in class.




Other Software
Before you go much further you should download some excellent free programs from the
website of Rick Parris’ Peanut Software at http://math.exeter.edu/rparris/

The ones I suggest are as follows:

WinPlot – A program for drawing graphs in 2-D and 3-D
WinArc – A great collection of puzzles and strategy games (beats Solitaire and MineHunt!)
WinStats – This program could do your whole project for you! More later on that…
1389 Edexcel GCSE Statistics – Coursework Task
Suggested Themes
The following topics were successfully used as investigations last year:
    Mayfield School: Height, Weight, Sex and Age
    Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Vehicles of Different Sizes
    House Prices: Location and Number of Bedrooms
    Car Depreciation: Makes, Models, Ages
    Barclays Premier League 2003-2006: Goals, Points and Crowd Sizes
    Distribution of Income in the UK
    Crime Rates in London: An Historical Study
    Life Expectancy & Maternal Mortality in LEDCs
    Tabloids, Broadsheets & Reading Age
    Tourism: Factors, History and Future Trends
    Military Expenditure v. GDP for Countries Around the World
    Income and Life Expectancy
    GCSE Performance in London Schools
    Footballers: Height and Weight Analysis
    Mayfield School: TV hours watched and IQ
    The Price of a Footballer
    Handedness, Hair Colour and Intelligence
    Gender Differences in School Attainment by Subject
The most interesting projects were those which explored a particular interest or hobby of the
student, and these tended to score more highly because of their depth and detail.

Deadlines
The first deadline (31st October) is for the PLAN of your project (no more than 1 or 2 sides of
A4). What I expect to see here is the working title of your investigation, as well as your thoughts
about gathering your sample data (Primary? Secondary? Reasons?) You should have thought a
little about avoiding bias to obtain representative data. You should then outline what you propose
to do with your data (please don’t just say “I’m going to draw a pie chart, a bar chart and a
scattergraph…”). At this stage you will probably also have a hypothesis which you are hoping to
explore.

The second deadline (9th January) is for the FIRST DRAFT of your project (10-15 sides is
about typical for a first draft). This is, as the name suggests, a first attempt. Be warned – I will
completely shred it with red ink. No matter how good your first draft, I will make it my duty to
criticise it, to say what’s wrong with it and generally make you feel miserable! More
importantly, though, I will be telling you HOW TO IMPROVE IT, so really all my criticism is
for your benefit. Honest! However, I will only tell you how to raise it to the next level, so the
better your first draft, the better the final version. You’d better type it too, because otherwise you
will have to write it all out again.

The third deadline (2nd April) is for the completed project (About 30 sides A4). At the start of
the lesson I will simply hold out a big box and you will all file past dropping in your
masterpieces. If you are absent on the day, or are present without a project, then you will simply
score zero. I’ve done it before and I’ll do it again. Happily.
The Coursework Project – Thoughts…

PLEASE don’t leave this until the last minute. There will be tears. If you want to be happy, just
start it on time and make sure you meet those three deadlines in the Weekly Timetable. It is
especially useful if you submit a good first draft. Remember that I scribble all over these first
drafts and basically tell you what you have to do in order to get lots more marks. You then have
plenty of time to rewrite the whole thing, incorporating my suggestions so that when the final
draft comes in you know that it is simply the best you can do. No surprises. If you do it on the
computer, and have kept your backup, then the second draft is only an edit, not a complete re-
write.

Last year lots of students didn’t see the “big picture” until it was almost too late. Let me try to
explain what the project is all about. Don’t worry – there will be many opportunities to discuss
this during the course and you will hopefully get fed up with me repeating it all.

In essence, your project is an account of what you did to test the truth of a “hypothesis” – that
word will make sense very soon, believe me. One really good project recently tested the
hypothesis “Bigger houses cost more money”. Another one explored the idea “Life expectancy is
related to national GDP”. Still another explored the relationship between film budgets and
generated revenue, and someone else compared the reading ages of a variety of newspapers.

You first define your “population”, then make a “hypothesis”. Next you create your “sample”
very carefully. As you “process and represent” your “data” you will be “reflecting and
evaluating”, and finally making your “conclusion”. All these words and phrases will be
explained in the course.

I will try to make available some sample projects so that you can see what the work involves.
You should aim to include as much of the content of Blocks 1 to 3 as is appropriate.

IMPORTANT
You do NOT get marks for pretty front covers, “word art”, neatly shaded bar charts, multi-
coloured line graphs, pages of waffle, fancy presentation wallets or anything like that.
You DO get marks for concise analysis, convincing and relevant choice of graph, reasoned
arguments and mature discussion of results. That’s why it’s good to get Autograph to draw all
your graphs, to free up your time to analyse and interpret them.
The project is read, not weighed: I’m looking for quality, not quantity. An above-average project
could actually be put together from scratch in an evening, or at least over one weekend. You
have months, so use the time wisely and you won’t be losing any sleep. Once you are above
average, each extra mark requires you to spend about twice as much time on the project. There
comes a point when you must ask yourself, therefore, whether you have reached your maximum.
Remember the wise saying “good enough is good enough” and don’t get stressed about it. There
will always be someone better than you, so don’t think that your project has to be the best ever
submitted. Just make it good by your standards and leave the worrying to the others.
Module Content

Block 1: Data Collection
Basic ideas and vocabulary
Population, sample, data, hypothesis, sub-hypothesis, primary and secondary sources,
quantitative / qualitative data, discrete / continuous data, class boundaries and interval notation.

Categorical data, ranked data, interval scales, ratio scales, bivariate data, two-way tables,
grouped and ungrouped data, designing questionnaires and surveys.
Sampling Methods
Precise definitions of population and sample, sampling frame, census, sample size; randomness:
random, random sample, Ran# on calculator, rand() in ICT, random number tables; stratified
sampling with more than one category.

Systematic, quota and cluster sampling; opinion polls; observation, experiment, measurement,
counting; convenience sampling, questionnaires, simulations.

Accuracy, advantages and disadvantages of different sampling methods, efficiency, reliability,
choosing and justifying a sample method, pilots and pre-tests, minimising bias and amibiguity,
anticipating and dealing with problems during data collection.

Designing a simple statistical experiment; replication, randomisation and matched pairs;
explanatory (independent) and response (dependent) variables; identification of redundant
variables.


Block 2: Processing, Representing and Analysing Data (1)
Tables and Diagrams
Two-way tables, the use of class intervals, problems of over-simplification and under-
simplification, the importance of precise labelling, comparative pie charts (areas), comparitive
line graphs and cumulative frequency step polygons, stem and leaf diagrams with key,
chloropleth maps, shape of distributions, the Normal distribution, histograms with equal or
unequal class width.

Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion
Mean, mode, median from a frequency distribution; Sigma notation; transformations of data
(x -> ax + b); recalculated averages; weighted and geometrical mean; choosing and justifying an
average measure.
Range, quartiles, deciles, percentiles, inter-quartile range (IQR); box and whisker plots, outliers,
variance, standard deviation; standardised scores.
Block 3: Processing, Representing and Analysing Data (2)
Further Summary Statistics
Retail Price Index (RPI), chain base numbers, simple and weighted index numbers.

Scatter Diagrams and Correlation
Correlation, relation (causality) and non-linear relationship; fitting a linear relationship to the
line of best of fit and interpreting the numerical coefficients in the line equation. Interpolation,
extrapolation, Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient.

Time Series and Quality Assurance
Trend lines, predictions, moving averages; allowable limits; estimating population parameters,
Petersen Capture / Recapture method.


Block 4: Reasoning, Interpreting and Discussing Results

This block concerns studies of real data from secondary sources using the tools and techniques
learned in Blocks 2 and 3 to make valid inferences.

Internet sources include:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
http://www.hmso.gov.uk/
http://users.argonet.co.uk/oundlesch/mlink.html#stats

Other sources include Social Trends, media publications, public access data from major
organisations etc.
The test for this block will be to write a report on a previously unseen set of data.


Block 5: Probability

Vocabulary: event, outcome, likelihook, probability, random, limiting frequency, “Odds”, Venn
Diagram.

Binomial and discrete uniform distributions; risk assessment; probability rules: AND, OR, NOT,
SUM.

Conditional probability; properties of the Normal distribution with respect to standard deviations
from the mean.
     FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

     Normal and Skewed Distributions
     This topic comes up a lot. You need to learn these pictures, so here they are:

          Normal Distribution                  Positive Skew                       Negative Skew




     Kurtosis
     This topic doesn’t come up at all. But they are nice pictures anyway.

        Mesokurtic Distribution           Platykurtic Distribution           Leptokurtic Distribution




     Areas Under The Normal Graph
     You’ll find yourself learning these without really trying. Very common.
     No. of S.D.’s either              ±1                         ±2                      ±3
     side of the mean
     Area Enclosed                     68%                        95%                     99.8%

     Interpretation of Correlation
     Think of Scattergraphs and read on:
     Term           Positive         Negative              Zero        Strong            Weak
                    As one           As one increases,                 Points close      Points
                                                           No
     Meaning        increases, so    the other                         to the line of    considerably
                                                           correlation
                    does the other decreases                           best fit          scattered
     Spearman’s
                                                                        r < -0.5
     Rank
                    0<r<1            -1 < r < 0            0            or               -0.5 < r < 0.5
     Correlation
                                                                        r > 0.5
     Coefficient

     Standardised Scores
     You have to learn this because it’s not on the formula sheet.

          X 
     S          gives a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. If (for example) your standardised
           
     score was 1.2, then you would be more than 1 s.d. above the mean, and so you would be in the
     top 16% of the class. [Working: 1s.d. = 68%; 100% – 68% = 32%; 32% ÷ 2 = 16%]



				
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