pac_wmo by Karton98

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 26

									THE ROLE OF WMO IN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE ACTIVITIES
Penehuro Fatu Lefale Scientific Officer World Climate Applications and CLIPS Division World Climate Programme (WCP) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Email: PLefale@wmo.int Website: www.wmo.int

Presentation to the Coping with Drought and Climate Change in Africa – Project Inception Meeting Conference Room, UNDP/DDC, UN Avenue, Gigiri Nairobi, Kenya, 29-30 August 2005.
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Overview
• Preamble • WMO at a glance • Role of WMO in International climate activities – The Climate Agenda • World Climate Application and Services Programme and Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) (WCACP) • [Some thoughts on the CDRoC-A Project]
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Preamble
„Africa is our greatest worry….we see a pattern emerging. Southern Africa is definitely becoming drier.‟ Wulf Killmann, chair of the FAO‟s climate change group, TIEMPO, Issue 6, July 2005.

„Some 34 countries, including Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Eritrea and
Zambia, are now experiencing droughts and food shortages‟ TIEMPO, Issue 56, July 2005.

„More than 150 definitions of drought are available in the
literature…despite the variation in drought definitions, a drought is broadly categorized as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or socioeconomic…meteorological drought is just an indicator of deficiency in precipitation, where as hydrological and agricultural droughts are physical manifestations of meteorological drought…‟ Boken, V.K., et al., 2005: Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought, Oxford University Press (WMO Publication).
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Seamless Forecasts
Climate Change: change of climate Climate Change: change in that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity climate overthe composition of thenatural atmosphere that alters time, whether due to global variability or asthat is in of human activity (IPCC). and a result addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC).
Years

GLOBAL WARMING
Forecast Uncertainty

Scenarios Outlooks

GHG Concentrations

Forecast Lead Time

Climate: integration (statistics) Seasons Predictioof discreet weather events and variables Guidance n over time and space Months
2 Week

Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination

Boundary Conditions

1 Week Weather: State of the atmosphere Days at a given time Hours and place Minutes

Initial Conditions

Protection of Life & Property

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Transportation

Climate is traditionally viewed as the integration of discrete weather events and variables over time and space The corollary is that: the components of climate change should be manifest on all time and space scales World Meteorological Organization
Hydropower Agriculture Fire Weather

Fisheries

Benefits

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Environment

Ecosystem

Commerce

Recreation

Health

Reservoi r Control

National Planning

Energy

WMO at a glance
• Established in 1950 as a

Specialized Agency of the United Nations. • It is the UN System‟s Authoritative Voice on Weather, Climate and Water. • Selected Achievements; major contributor to the establishment of the WWW, WCP, IPCC/UNFCCC, GCOS, GEOSS/GEO
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WMO Vision
“To provide world leadership in expertise and international co-operation in weather, climate, hydrology and water resources, and related environmental issues, and thereby to contribute to the safety and well being of people throughout the world and to the economic benefit of all nations.”
WMO 6LTP, 2004-2011

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WMO Sixth Long Term Plan (6LTP) “…provides a consolidated set of desired outcomes, strategies and associated goals for 2004-2011 as WMO seeks to contribute proactively to the protection of life and property, to safeguarding the environment and to sustainable development.”
WMO 6LTP, 2004-2011.

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WMO‟s desired outcomes
1. Improved protection of life and property 2. Increased safety on land, at sea and in the air 3. Enhanced quality of life 4. Sustained economic growth 5. Protection of the environment
6. Enhanced WMO effectiveness.

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WWW World Weather Watch

WCP World Climate Programme

AREP Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme AMP Applications of Meteorology Programme

RP Regional Programme

WMO Programmes

HWRP Hydrology and Water Resources Programme

TCOP Technical Cooperation Programme
ProgrammeSupporting Services

WMOSP Space Programme

ETRP Education and Training Programme

Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme

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WMO‟s Regional Associations (RAs)
RA VI Europe (49 Members)

RA IV North America, Central America and the Caribbean (25 Members)

RA II Asia (35 Members)

RA III South America (13 Members)

RA I Africa (56 Members)

RA V South-East Asian and South West Pacific (22 Members)

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2. World Climate Programme (WCP)– Purpose and Scope

“To provide an authoritative international scientific voice on climate (variability) and climate change… assist countries in the application of climate information and knowledge to national sustainable development… This will be achieved through the implementation of Agenda 21 and associated instrument (e.g. MDGs) in order to achieve maximum possible benefit for national economies and social welfare.”
WMO 6LTP, 2004-2011.

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WCP within International Climate Activities
Global Earth Observation Systems of System (GEOSS) – Group of Earth Observation (GEO) UNESCO ISSC ICSU International International UN Educational Scientific and Social Council for Science Science Cultural Organization Council International Non-government Organization IOC MAB IPCC

WMO

UN

WORLD BANK

FAO

WHO

UNEP

UNDP GEF

UN FCCC/COP

CCA Coordination activities within the Climate Agenda WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME IHDP International Human Dimensions Programme IGBP International GeosphereBiosphere Programme WCRP (WMO, ICSU) WCDMP (WMO) WCASP (WMO)

CCl CAgM WCIRP (UNEP)

THE CLIMATE AGENDA
GCOS (WMO, IOC, UNEP, ICSU) GTOS (UNEP, FAO, UNESCO, WMO, ICSU)
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GOOS (IOC, WMO, UNEP, ICSU)

World Meteorological Organization Organisation météorologique mondiale INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMMES

WCP Strategies
1. Support delivery of accurate and reliable warnings of severe climatic events 2. Provision of beneficial climate services 3. Enhanced WMO‟s role as the UN authoritative voice on the state and behavior of the climate 4. Provides information on the socio-economic benefits of understanding the climate
5. Understanding and modeling of the processes that affect the climate 6. Supports development of climate observations 7. Ensure effective international partnerships.

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WCP & Climate Agenda
T1:New Frontiers in climate science & prediction T2:Climate Services for Sustainable Development T3: Studies of climate impact assessments & response strategies to reduce vulnerability T4:Dedicated observations of the climate system

Overall objectives of the WCP are formulated to ensure that the above thrusts are pursued.

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WCP Objectives
1. Facilitate effective collection and management of climate data and the monitoring of the global climate system, including the detection and assessment of climate variability and change

2. Foster the effective application of climate knowledge and information for the benefit of society 3. Assess the impact of climate variability and change on ecosystems, socio-economic activities
4. Improved understanding of climate processes for determining the predictability of climate and identifying the extent o human influence on climate and developing the capability for climate predictions and climate change scenarios
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WCAC Goal
“To assist WMO members and all stakeholders to apply Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) in their decision making processes to maintain public safety, health and socio-economic welfare, to alleviate poverty and to promote sustainable development.”

CLIPS is the vehicle for much of the WCAC development and implementation.

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WCAC Objectives
1. Establish an international project to coordinate development and applications of Seasonal to Interannual Predictions (SIPs)
2. To investigate and facilitate the establishment of Regional/National Climate Centers (RCCs) 3. To demonstrate value and benefits of SIPs – Education, Training, Public Awareness and Capacity Building
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CLIPS‟ main activities
1. Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIPs and their applications
2. Development of guidelines and methodologies on SIPs and applications on climate sensitive sectors and systems

3. Provide users with new CLIPS in light of new scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs
4. Coordinate joint international research with WCRP and other International Climate Programmes
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The Regional Climate Outlook Forum Process
The Pre-Forum (4-6 wks)

The Forum Proper (1 wk)

Guidance
Ensemble Product

Verification
Seasonal Forecast Experiments (Hind-cast)

Initial Predictors

Climate Forecasters

• Latest information on
the climate system • Global SST anomaly • El Nino Prediction Model • etc World Meteorological Organization
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Dissemination NMHSs, etc.
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CLIPS - RCOF

Asia North Africa

Caribbean Central America

West Africa

Southeastern Asia
Greater Horn of Africa Pacific

West Coast of South America
Southeastern South America

Southern Africa

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Seasonal Predictions for the summer of 2005: GHA

OUTLOOK (MAM):

NBN SSW Tanzania •ZII: ANN CN Tanzania; Rwanda; Burundi; S.Uganda, CS Kenya •ZIII: NBN Kenya, CN Uganda, SW Sudan, SE Ethiopia and Somalia •ZIV: NAN E Djibouti, W Ethiopia and parts of eastern Sudan
•ZV: NBN NW Ethiopia, SW Eritrea •ZVI: Climatology, N Sudan, much of Eritrea and W Djibouiti

• ZI:

Source: 15th RCOF GHA, 2 – 4 March, 2005,Mombasa, Kenya

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WMO’s Technical Assistance
Providing support to NMHSs through national/regional projects for :
• Rehabilitation and upgrading hydro meteorological infrastructure & facilities • Human Resources Development • Technology transfer • Establishment of climate/weather monitoring, Prediction and Early Warning Systems

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ICPAC and SADC Drought Monitoring Centre * * Established by WMO in 1989 with funding support from UNDP. Objective: to provide information, products and early warning advisories on extreme climate events (droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, etc.) Current support: IGAD, SADC, USAID, NOAA/OGP, WMO & IRI.

*

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Future Plans
• WMO will continue to provide an authoritative international scientific voice on climate variability and climate change • WMO will continue to assist countries in the applications of climate information and knowledge to national sustainable development. This will be achieved through the implementation of Agenda 21 and associated instrument (e.g. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)) in order to achieve maximum possible benefit for national economies and social welfare. • WMO will continue to enhance interagency collaboration for effective SIPs and climate applications and links to other international programmes such as GCOS, WCRP (COPES), GEO/GEOSS
For further information on the work of WMO, including CLIPS, see „Sixth WMO LongTerm Plan 2004-2011‟ WMO-No. 962, 2004, available online at http://www.wmo.int
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Some final thoughts

- Sach‟s 7-part diagnostic checklist for a clinical economist

1. The extent of Extreme Poverty (poverty mapping, proportion of household lacking basic needs, spatial distribution of basic infrastructure, etc.) 2. Economic Policy Framework (business environment, trade policy, Investment policy, infrastructure, human capital) 3. Fiscal Framework and Physical Traps (public sector revenues and expenditures, tax administration and expenditure management, overhang of public sector debt, Quasi-fiscal debt and hidden debt, etc) 4. Physical Geography (agronomic conditions, disease ecology, population density, etc) 5. Governance patterns and Failures (civil and political rights, public management system, etc.) 6. Cultural Barriers (gender, ethnic and religious divisions) 7. Geopolitics (International security relations, trade barriers, international sanctions, cross-border security threat, etc.)
For details, see Sachs, J., 2005: The End of Poverty: How we can make it happen in our lifetime, The Penguin Press, New York, USA and London WC2R ORL, UK, pp. 82-88. World Meteorological Organization
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