Nominal Debt as a Burden to Monetary Policys by sdsdfqw21

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 30

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                             5


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                             6


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                           7


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                            8


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                              9


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                        :

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vxemhfw wr wkh lpsohphqwdelolw| frqglwlrqv= 8
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     Dw wlph }hur wkh fdvk lq dgydqfh lv elqglqj/ dqg vr wkh hodvwlflw| zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh
sulfh ohyho lv rqh1
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     Wkh olwhudwxuh uhihuv wr wkhvh frqglwlrqv dv lpsohphqwdelolw| frqvwudlqwv ehfdxvh wkh|
duh frqvwudlqwv rq wkh vhw ri doorfdwlrqv wkdw fdq eh lpsohphqwhg dv d frpshwlwlyh htxlole0
ulxp zlwk glvwruwlqj wd{hv1 Frqvwudlqw +4;, lv wkh frqvxphu exgjhw frqvwudlqw zlwk sulfhv
vxevwlwxwhg iurp wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv1
Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                       ;

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vhqvh wkdw wkh frqwlqxdwlrq ri wkh Udpvh| srolf| lv Udpvh|/ zh fdq vroyh wkh
Udpvh| sureohp uhfxuvlyho|1 Khqfh/ khuh wkh jryhuqphqw fkrrvhv sulfhv wkdw
pd{lpl}h wkh suhihuhqfhv ri frqvxphuv/ vxemhfw wr wkh frpshwlwlyh frqvwudlqw
dqg wkh ihdvlelolw| frqvwudlqw/ l1h1 zh xvh d uhgxfhg irup wr dffrxqw iru doo
wkh frqvwudlqwv1
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zkhuh T ghqrwhv YT c  ' c K dqg U lv wkh pxowlsolhu ri wkh lpsohphqwdelolw|
                 Y                |
frqglwlrq +4;,1
   Xvlqj wkh hqyhorsh wkhruhp/ zh jhw

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l1h1 wkh pxowlsolhuv duh frqvwdqw zkhq ghew lv lqgh{hg1
    Glylglqj wkurxjk +53, e| | / uhduudqjlqj wkh whupv xvlqj +4<,/ glylglqj
wkurxjk e| kc dqg xvlqj=
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Qrwlfh wkdw/ rwkhuzlvh/ li 5| : c lw zrxog ehfrph duelwudulo| odujh/ phdqlqj
wkdw wkh lqwhuhvw udwh zrxog ehfrph qhjdwlyh/ ru hovh/ li 5| …     c lw zrxog
ehfrph qhjdwlyh/ dovr phdqlqj wkdw wkh lqwhuhvw udwh zdv qhjdwlyh1
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l1h1/ wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv htxdo wr wkh pxowlsolhu ri wkh lpsohphqwdelolw|
frqvwudlqw/ dffrxqwhg iru dw wkh pdujlqdo ydoxh ri oderu1 E| xvlqj wkh suhvhqw
ydoxh exgjhw frqvwudlqw/ zklfk lv vwdwlrqdu|/ zh fdq hdvlo| ghwhuplqh dovr wkh
ydoxh ri wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkhuhiruh wkh pxowlsolhu1
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zkhuh K lv wkh vwdwlrqdu| ydoxh ri wkh uhdo ghew1
    Zh kdyh vroyhg d yhu| vlpsoh sureohp= wkh jryhuqphqw kdv lq hyhu|
shulrg rqo| rqh wd{ +l1h1 wkh lq dwlrq wd{,19 Wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq
sureohp lv d frqvwdqw lqwhuhvw udwh zklfk lv rswlpdo/ ehfdxvh wkh jryhuqphqw
zdqwv wr vprrwk glvwruwlrqv1 Zkdw kdsshqv khuh lv wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw
lqwhuqdol}hv wkh idfw wkdw lw fdqqrw ghidxow rq wkh ghew/ e| vxusulvlqj wkh
djhqwv zlwk lq dwlrq1 Dv zh vkdoo vhh/ zkhwkhu wkh jryhuqphqw fdq lqwhuqdol}h
ru qrw wkh idfw wkdw lw kdv wr sd| iru wkh ghew lv wkh pdlq glhuhqfh zlwk wkh
rwkhu htxloleulxp frqfhswv/ dqg wklv vkrzv lq wkh htxloleulxp ydoxhv ri wkh
pxowlsolhuv ri wkh lpsohphqwdelolw| frqvwudlqwv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj vhfwlrq zh
dqdo|}h wkh htxloleulxp zlwk qrplqdo ghew dqg qr frpplwphqw1
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    Qrwh wkdw d prgho zlwk rwkhu wd{hv pd| kdyh pruh lqwhuhvwlqj ihdwxuhv exw wkh vwuxf0
wxuh lv hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph1
Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                     43


7        Uhfxuvlyh Prqhwdu| Htxloleuld zlwk Qrp0
         lqdo Ghew
Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh fkdudfwhul}h wkh pdunry shuihfw htxloleuld zlwk qrplqdo
ghew1 Zh qdph wklv htxloleulxp uhfxuvlyh +-. Wkh uhohydqw vwdwh yduldeohv
duh prqh| dqg qrplqdo ghew dw wlph |1

Ghqlwlrq 5 Wkh uhfxuvlyh prqhwdu| htxloleulxp lv wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh iro0
orzlqj sureohp


                                 T E| c K| c 'E| c K|  '


          4@ i*L}E^| |        kE^| | n } n qT E|n c K|n c 'E|n c K|n j
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frqvwudlqw1 Ohw ` E| c K|   T E| c K| c 'E| c K| / dqg vr

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                      44



                               q`u|n n EF ' f
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   Xvlqj wkh hqyhorsh wkhruhp/ zh jhw wkh ydoxhv ri wkh pdujlqdo ghulydwlyhv
zlwk uhvshfw wr '| / K| dqg | uhvshfwlyho|=
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zh jhw=
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wkdw lv wr vd|/ li zh ghqrwh wkh hodvwlflw| ri ' zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh ghew K
e| "u czh rewdlq wkh iroorzlqj glhuhqfh htxdwlrq iru wkh pxowlsolhuv dqg wkh
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wkhq wkh pxowlsolhuv ghfolqh dqg frqyhujh wr d frqvwdqw1 Li K| ' f/ "u|n '
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li wkh hodvwlflw| frqyhujhv wr }hur/ wkhq `u| $ Tu| 1 Wklv lv fohdu vlqfh wkh
sureohp zlwk qrplqdo ghew lv htxlydohqw wr wkh sureohp zlwk uhdo ghew/ zkhq
ghew lv }hur1
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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                         45


Glylglqj wkurxjk e| | dqg xvlqj +5;,

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                    46


dqg vr/
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dqg uhduudqjh whupv wr rewdlq rxu glhuhqfh htxdwlrq lq whupv ri 5| G
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"u|n 9' f1 Li "u|n ' f/ wkhq zkhq K|n jrhv xs/ ^|n lv frqvwdqw1 Vlqfh lq
htxloleulxp lw pxvw eh wkdw
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wkhq |n2 lv frqvwdqw dqg wkh ghew lv jurzlqj dw wkh udwh q 3 c ylrodwlqj wkh
exgjhw1 Wklv lv reylrxv ehfdxvh doo wkdw lv ehlqj vdlg lv wkdw lw lv qrw srvvleoh
wr qdqfh d kljkhu ghew zlwkrxw hyhu fkdqjlqj wkh sulfh ohyhov1 Krzhyhu/ zh
fdqqrw pdnh d vlplodu dujxphqw iru "u|n : f1 Xvlqj wkh suhvhqw ydoxh exgjhw
frqvwudlqw           " %
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lw lv fohduo| srvvleoh iru wkh sulfh ohyho wr jr grzq/ li dw vrph srlqw lq wkh
ixwxuh/ wkh lq dwlrq udwh jrhv xs lq rughu wr edodqfh wkh exgjhw1
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pxowlsolhuv duh ghfuhdvlqj1 Dovr wkh ghew jrhv wr }hur dqg wkh lqwhuhvw udwh
frqyhujhv wr wkh ydoxh ri pxowlsolhuv hydoxdwhg dw wkh pdujlqdo surgxfwlylw|
ri oderu1
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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                     47


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htxloleulxp/ 5 EF frqyhujhv wr / zklfk lv wkh vroxwlrq zlwk lqgh{hg ghew1
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zlwk wkh vroxwlrq rewdlqhg zkhq frpplwphqw lv ihdvleoh1 Ixuwkhupruh/ zh
dovr frpsxwh d p|rslf vroxwlrq/ zkhuh wkh jryhuqphqw grhv qrw wdnh ixoo|
dffrxqw ri wkh hhfwv ri lwv dfwlrqv/ dqg frpsduh wklv wr wkh uhfxuvlyh vroxwlrq1


8     Rwkhu vroxwlrqv zlwk qrplqdo ghew
814    Wkh Udpvh| vroxwlrq zlwk ixoo frpplwphqw
Ohw xv dqdo|}h wkh Udpvh| +-, vroxwlrqv wr wkh jryhuqphqw pd{lpl}dwlrq
sureohp lq wkh fdvh ri qrplqdo qrq }hur ghew1 Zh vroyh wkh sureohp iurp
gdwh | ' f rq1
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frpplw wr lwv srolflhv iurp wkhuh rq/ wkhq lw zrxog zdqw wr fkrrvh d srolf|
wkdw zrxog glhu iurp wkh rqhv rewdlqhg ehiruh1 Krzhyhu/ li wklv kdg ehhq
dqwlflsdwhg lw zrxog kdyh wr eh wkh fdvh wkdw wkh h{0dqwh lqwhuhvw udwh htxdov
wkh h{0srvw udwh1 Wklv lv wkh h{huflvh shuiruphg e| Fkdul dqg Nhkrh +4<<<,1

Ghqlwlrq 6 Wkh Udpvh| vroxwlrq lv d vhtxhqfh ri txdqwlwlhv dqg sulfhv
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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                    48


vxemhfw wr wkh lpsohphqwdelolw| frqglwlrqv

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                  49


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dw wkh pdujlqdo ydoxh ri oderu/ wkrxjk zlwk d glhuhqw ydoxh iru wkh pxowlsolhu/
vr wkdw wkh lqwhuhvw udwh lv dovr glhuhqw1 Wklv lv qrw ydolg iru vrph | ' f Lq
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ghew/ dqg d orzhu udwh rqzdugv1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw dlpv dw
wdnlqj dgydqwdjh ri wkh oxps0vxp/ ru dssduhqw oxps0vxp li dqwlflsdwhg1 Wkh
jryhuqphqw/ lq idfw/ kdv wkh shufhswlrq/ dw vrph wlph f/ wkdw lw fdq ghsohwh
wkh qrplqdo oldelolwlhv/ hyhq li lq htxloleulxp1 Krzhyhu/ li wklv lv dqwlflsdwhg
e| wkh djhqwv/ wkh jryhuqphqw fdqqrw hhfwlyho| ghsohwh wkh ghew1
Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                             4:


    Wkh ihdwxuh ri wkh Udpvh| sureohp zlwk qrplqdo ghew lv wkdw wkh jry0
huqphqw fdq vxusulvh wkh djhqwv dw vrph | ' |f c exw zkdw kdsshqv li wkh
jryhuqphqw zdv wu|lqj wr v|vwhpdwlfdoo| vxusulvh wkh djhqwv hyhu| shulrgB
Zkdw li wkh djhqwv dqwlflsdwhg wklv ehkdylruB Li zh lpsrvh Udwlrqdo H{shf0
wdwlrqv dqg dqdo|}h wklv fdvh/ zh jhw zkdw lq wkh olwhudwxuh kdv ehhq fdoohg
P|rslf vroxwlrq1 Zh duh qrw lqwhuhvwhg khuh lq wkh p|rslf vroxwlrq lwvhoi dv
dq htxloleulxp frqfhsw1 Krzhyhu/ wkurxjk wklv htxloleulxp frqfhsw zh fdq
jhw ixuwkhu lqvljkwv lqwr wkh sureohp1 Ohw xv wkhuhiruh eulh | frqvlghu wklv
vroxwlrq1

815    D p|rslf vroxwlrq zlwkrxw frpplwphqw
Ohw djdlq ^|  *R| / dqg ohw ^| ghqrwh wkh h{shfwdwlrqv iruphg dw |                   ri wkh
sulfh ri prqh| dw |1 Wklv sureohp lv lqgh{hg e| 1

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                             4<


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lv kljkhu zlwkrxw qrplqdo ghew dqg frlqflghv zlwk wkh rqh zlwk lqgh{hg ghew1
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lqdo lqwhuhvw udwh  lv wkh udwh wkdw edodqfhv wkh exgjhw iru d jlyhq vwdwlrqdu|
uhdo ghew1 Wkh pdujlqdo ydoxh ri wkh glvwruwlrq lv glvfrxqwhg e| wkh suhvhqw
                                              
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wkh qrplqdo ghew/ l1h1 wkdw lw lv srvvleoh/ h{0srvw/ ghfuhdvh wkh uhdo ydoxh ri
ghew e| lq dwlqj1 Khqfh wkh pxowlsolhuv duh orzhu1
Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                    53


    Lq rxu hqylurqphqw lw lv srvvleoh wr ydu| wkh lq dwlrq wd{ ryhu wlph exw
wkhuh duh qr dowhuqdwlyh wd{hv1 Li wkhuh zhuh dowhuqdwlyh wd{hv/ lq wklv hq0
ylurqphqw wkh| zrxog eh htxlydohqw wr wkh lq dwlrq wd{1 Krzhyhu li wkhuh
zhuh fdvk dqg fuhglw jrrgv/ dqg wkh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq zdv wkh vdph rq wkh
wzr jrrgv/ pdlqwdlqlqj wkh vhsdudelolw| lq ohlvxuh/ wkhq dowkrxjk wkh rswlpdo
lq dwlrq wd{ zrxog eh wkh Iulhgpdq uxoh/ wkdw zrxog qrw eh wkh vroxwlrq
lq wklv p|rslf htxloleulxp1 Wkhuh zrxog eh d ghyldwlrq iurp wkh Iulhgpdq
uxoh/ vlqfh wkh lq dwlrq wd{ zrxog kdyh wklv dssduhqwo| oxps vxp frpsrqhqw
dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh wlph lqfrqvlvwhqf|/ wkdw zrxog lqgxfh dq lq dwlrq wd{
wkdw zrxog eh wrr kljk1
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zh kdyh glvfxvvhg deryh wkhvh hhfwv kdg ehhq lqfrusrudwhg1


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xvhg wkh iroorzlqj qrwdwlrq= vxshuvfulsw U ' P|rslf srolf| zlwk Uqgh{hg
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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                              54

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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                           57


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                                                                 58


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                   59



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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                                          5:


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                                      5;


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Yhuvlrq= 370430<<                                                        63


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