Employment Screen Pricing by xlb14496

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									             Using
Local Employment Dynamics Data
    to Measure Job Churning

                        Presented by:
                        Gary Yakimov
              Corporation for a Skilled Workforce

                           To:
                         ACCRA
                     November 9, 2006
                        Tampa, FL




                                                    1
Do You Know….
• The detailed industries in your local area that are
  creating the most new jobs?
• Is your job creation competitive with your
  neighbors?
• The industries that pay the highest wage for new
  workers?
• The specific types of businesses that are likely to
  hire your sons and daughters and pay them a
  good wage?
• Where your older workforce is most likely to find
  success?
• How your cluster or sector targets are performing
  relative to the time and resources you are
  spending on them?
• Where is the “churn” in your labor market?
• Where are your jobs located in relationship to
  where the people live?
                                                        2
Can You Tell Employers…
 – How their turnover rates and
   separation counts compare to the
   industry average for my area?
 – How their wages for all employees
   compare to others in their industry?
 – How their wages for new hires
   compare to others in their industry?
 – Where there competitors for talented
   workers are located?


                                          3
“Using LED to Measure Job
Churning”



LED can answer these questions and
 more for you and your organization
 and local area




                                      4
Participant Introductions

• Name, Organization, Role
• Familiarity with traditional labor
  market information
• Familiarity with Local Employment
  Dynamics
• Greatest interest in attending the
  training


                                       5
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                                   6
State Participation in LED*




               Not all LED states are mapping
                                                7
               states
LED Home Page




                8
Industry Focus – Key Questions

What are the top industries in my area?
 - On any one indicator?
 - Across all indicators?

What are the workforce characteristics of
 key industries?

How do industries rank within or across
 various indicators?

                                            9
Industry Focus: Indicator and
Demographic Query




                                10
Industry Focus: Query Results




Click on hyperlink to see local
workforce details                 11
Local Workforce: Employment
Distribution




                          12
Local Workforce: Other Key
Indicators




                             13
Local Workforce: Trends in
Average Monthly Earnings




                             14
Change Rankings




                  15
So what? Illinois’ Critical
Skills Shortage Initiative
• Real-life opportunity for LED data
  application
• Data and analysis driving $15m in state
  investment over 3 years
• Four steps:
  –   Identify key industries/groups of employers
  –   Identify occupations with shortages
  –   Ascertain “root causes” of shortages
  –   Develop solutions to address root causes


                                                    16
Identifying Top Industry Sectors
Sample Area
Hand-Out: Region 7 (all 8      Why Transportation Equipment
   indicators, equal weight)     Manufacturing?
                               13th     Quarterly
                                        Employment
Top 5 Industries:
                               19th     Growth in
1. Transportation                       Employment
   Equipment
   Manufacturing               3rd      New Hires
2. Merchant Wholesalers,       6th      Hiring Growth Rate
   Durable Goods               1st      Job Creation
3. Professional, Scientific,   19th     Monthly Earnings
   and Technical Services      2nd      Earnings Growth
4. Electrical Equipment        2nd      New Hire Earnings
   Manufacturing
5. Ambulatory Health Care
   Services



                                                              17
Industry Focus Review
Exercises
• What is the top industry in Raleigh-Durham for:
  – Job Creation
  – Average Monthly Earnings for New Hires
  – Average Monthly Earnings for All Workers

• What are the key characteristics of the local
  workforce in those industries?

• Discussion – What policy or resource decisions
  might you make based on this information?



                                                  18
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                               19
LED Quarterly
Workforce Indicators
•   Total Employment
                      All Quarterly
•   Net Job Flows
                      Workforce
•   Job Creation      Indicators can be
•   New Hires         analyzed at the
•   Separations       detailed industry
                      level
•   Turnover
•   Average Monthly Earnings
•   Average New Hire Earnings



                                          20
QWI Online

             • Query Boxes
             • Indicators and
               Definitions
             • State and
               Trend
               Comparison
             • Detailed
               Industries
             • Comparison
               Reports
             • Download;
               Print



                           21
Comparison Reports




                     22
QWI Review Exercises
• What was the job creation for 19-21
  year olds in the 2nd quarter of 2005
  for Raleigh-Durham compared to 55-
  64 year olds?
• How does the job creation for
  Raleigh-Durham in 2004-2ndQ
  compare to the 4 quarter average for
  the area?
• Which NC workforce area had the
  highest new hire earnings in 2005-
  3rdQ?

                                     23
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                               24
Interactive Mapping

• Core data set is LED
• Origin-destination flows for
  2002-2003
• Answers questions like:
  –   Where are the employers in particular industries
      located?
  –   Where are the high wage employment areas?
  –   What is the alignment between where the jobs are
      and where people live?
  –   What are the characteristics of the workers coming
      into and going out of our area?

                                                       25
What GIS Maps Used to
Look Like




                        26
On the Map: Participating
States




Coming Soon: Oklahoma, Maine, All LED States
                                               27
On the Map: Query Screen




                           28
Commuting Shed



Where do residents in an area
 commute to work?




                                29
Commute Shed –
Raleigh-Durham




                 30
Commute Shed – Shed
Report




                      31
Commute Shed – Area
Profile




                      32
Labor Shed



Where do job holders working in a
 given area live?




                                    33
Labor Shed –
Raleigh-Durham




                 34
Labor Shed – Shed Report




                           35
Labor Shed – Area Profile




                            36
Labor Shed –
Quarterly Workforce Indicators




                             37
• Using LED Mapping for Local
  Economic Analysis




                                38
                                      Missouri Tornado Path*
                                       (shown in red) March 12, 2006




F-Scale: F3 between Clever and Nixa   Path Length: ~40 miles
Width: 1/4 to 1/2 mile                Time: 10:08 – 11:00 P.M.



                                              *Source: National Weather Service 39
                 Missouri Tornado Track (March 12,
                 2006)




Where do people who live in the path of the tornado work?




                                                            40
               Missouri Tornado Track (March 12,
               2006)




Where do workers employed at jobs located in the path of the
tornado live?




                                                               41
        Where Workers Live:
        Hurricane Wilma Potential Landfall
        Zone
 About half of
  people who
  work in
  Charlotte and
  Lee Counties
  live in those
  counties
 Almost half live
  elsewhere



                                     October 19, 2005 42
         Hannibal, MO – Quincy, IL:
         Interstate Commuting and Spatial Profile
 Pinpoints local geographies
  − Flow of workers across state
    borders

 Maps where employees live
  and where residents work
  − Quincy IL employers attract
    nearly 1,350 MO residents
  − Hannibal, MO employers
    attract only 240 IL residents




                                                43
Downtown St. Louis
Proposed Mississippi River Bridge Project




                                            44
St. Charles, MO and East Alton, IL
Cross-state Commuting Patterns




                                     45
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                               46
What is LED?
Local:
• State, County, sub-County, Metro Area, Workforce
  Investment Area
Employment:
• Demographics (age, gender)
• Industry (NAICS, SIC)
• Earnings
Dynamics:
• Timing (quarterly, historical back to 1990)
• Worker employment change (new hires, separations,
  turnover rates)
• Firm employment change (firm job gains and losses)




                                                       47
What LED is Not…
• Is not… a picture of “today” but rather
  about 9 months rear view image
• Is not… occupation specific but rather
  industry-based
• Is not… yet distinguishable by race or
  other demographic characteristics other
  than age and gender
• Is not… a static program or web page
  (pending new web screens, new
  nomenclature, new tools, new state
  partners, etc.)
                                            48
          How Does It Work?
                            Surveys             Administrative
       Censuses                                   Records


                 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
                                 Program
                                 (LEHD)

                                            Local

    Local
                            Local         Immigration
                                           Dynamics
Transportation            Employment
  Dynamics
                           Dynamics

            Maps               QWI           Reports
                               Online
                                                                 49
Clients

                              Questions                    Current              New
          Businesses
                                                                                 Jobs            Current        New
 Economic development
       agencies                                                              Total payroll
                             Where are the workers?                         Gross job gain                    National
                                                              Jobs
Chambers of commerce                                                                              National
                                                          Total payroll     Gross job loss                     State
 Federal, state and local    How much are they paid?                           Net jobs            State
                                                                              New hires                        Metro
        agencies                                                                                  County
                                                                                Recalls                       County
                                                                             Layoffs/quits
 Workforce Investment                                                                                        Sub-county
                                                                          Individual earnings
       Boards                                           Indicators                                              WIA
Chambers of commerce           Where are the jobs?                                              Geography
School career counselors
                             How much do they pay?
Job search professionals
                               Who needs training?
          Businesses
                                                        Demography            New               Location
 Federal, state, and local
        agencies                                                              Male
                                                                                                               New
                                                                             Female
                                 How can workers                                                 Current
                                                                          Age categories                     Workplace
                                 get to their jobs?        Current
       Businesses                                                             14-18              Workplace   Residence
                                                                              19-21
                              Where should a business
Transportation planners                                                       22-24
                                      locate?
Federal, state and local                                                      25-34
                                                           None               35-44
       agencies
                                                                              45-54
                                                                              55-64
                                                                               65+
                                                                           Immigrant
                                                                           Native born                           50
Role of State Labor Market
Information Offices
• Traditional LMI available
   – Industry and occupational employment and wages for
     current period, historical, and projected
   – Employment, unemployment, and labor force
   – Other information varies by state


• LMI Role in the LED Project
   – State consortium guiding the LED work
   – Technical assistance to Boards, others
   – Creation of Customized Reports




                                                     51
Four e-Learning Modules: Site Tour, Industry
Focus, QWI Online and On the Map




                                               52
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                               53
 Industry Staffing Patterns
For 3,4,5 digit NAICS sectors
  http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrci.htm



Handout: Healthcare Industry Staffing Patterns



Handout: Training and Education Categories




                                                 54
What is O*NET?
• Developed and maintained by U.S. DOL,
  Employment and Training Administration
• Comprehensive database of worker attributes
  and job characteristics.
• Replaces the Dictionary of Occupational Titles
  (DOT)
• Provides a common language for defining and
  describing occupations.
• Provides occupational characteristics through
  technology
• Contains detailed occupational characteristics
  for all defined occupations
• Provides information on-line and through
  electronic downloads, bringing occupational
  information into the technological age
                                                   55
Important O*NET Web
Pages
• Main Data page
  – http://online.onetcenter.org/


• Understanding the components
  – http://online.onetcenter.org/help/onet/database


• Resource Center
  – http://www.onetcenter.org/

• O*NET Consortium
  – http://www.onetcenter.org/whatsnew.html



                                                      56
O*NET: The Main Page




                       57
How to Find Occupations




                          58
    Example of Critical Occupations
    General and Operations Managers

    Work Tasks                                  Knowledge Requirements
    •  Direct and coordinate activities of
       businesses or departments                • Administration and
       concerned with the production,             Management (92)
       pricing, sales, and/or distribution of   • Customer and Personal
       products.
    •  Manage staff, preparing work               Service (85)
       schedules and assigning specific         • English Language (82)
       duties.
    •  Review financial statements, sales
                                                • Law and Government (73)
       and activity reports, and other          • Sales and Marketing (71)
       performance data to measure
       productivity and goal achievement        • Personnel and Human
       and to determine areas needing cost        Resources (71)
       reduction and program improvement.
                                                • Mathematics (69)
    •  Establish and implement
       departmental policies, goals,            • Public Safety and Security
       objectives, and procedures,                (65)
       conferring with board members,
       organization officials, and staff        • Economics and Accounting
       members as necessary.                      (64)
    •  Determine staffing requirements,         • Production and Processing
       and interview, hire and train new
       employees, or oversee those                (61)
       personnel processes.


Source: O*NET On-Line                                                      59
    Example of Critical Occupations
    Management Analysts

    Work Tasks                                  Knowledge Requirements
    •   Review forms and reports, and           • Administration and
        confer with management and users
        about format, distribution, and            Management (91)
        purpose, and to identify problems       • English Language (64)
        and improvements.                       • Education and Training (61)
    •   Develop and implement records
        management program for filing,          • Mathematics (59)
        protection, and retrieval of records,   • Personnel and Human
        and assure compliance with                 Resources (52)
        program.
                                                • Clerical (48)
    •   Interview personnel and conduct on-
        site observation to ascertain unit      • Economics and Accounting (45)
        functions, work performed, and          • Computers and Electronics (39)
        methods, equipment, and personnel
        used.                                   • Psychology (34)
    •   Prepare manuals and train workers       • Production and Processing (30)
        in use of new forms, reports,
        procedures or equipment, according
        to organizational policy.
    •   Design, evaluate, recommend, and
        approve changes of forms and
        reports.




Source: O*NET On-Line                                                         60
    Example of Critical Occupations
    First Line Supervisors and Managers of Retail
    Trade Workers
    Work Tasks                             Knowledge Requirements
    •   Provide customer service by        • Customer and Personal
        greeting and assisting               Service (73)
        customers, and responding to
        customer inquiries and             • Administration and
        complaints.                          Management (63)
    •   Monitor sales activities to        • English Language (52)
        ensure that customers receive
        satisfactory service and quality   • Mathematics (48)
        goods.                             • Personnel and Human
    •   Assign employees to specific         Resources (45)
        duties.                            • Food Production (38)
    •   Direct and supervise employees     • Sales and Marketing (37)
        engaged in sales, inventory-
        taking, reconciling cash           • Public Safety and Security
        receipts, or in performing           (36)
        services for customers.            • Clerical (33)
    •   Inventory stock and reorder
        when inventory drops to a          • Economics and Accounting
        specified level.                     (33)



Source: O*NET On-Line                                                 61
Exercise: Occupations and
their Characteristics
• You already identified top industries for your local area.
• What are the top 3 occupations in that industry (by % of
  employment)?
• For the top occupations identify top 3:
    –   Work Tasks
    –   Work Activities
    –   Knowledge Requirements
    –   Skills Requirements
• How would you use this information to influence program
  offerings and curriculum decisions in community and
  technical colleges?
• How would you use this information to engage private
  sector partners?
• What other information in the O*NET “Details” did you
  find useful?



                                                               62
Overview of Agenda

• Industry Focus
    – Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and
      Gender
    – Top Industries within and across key
      indicators
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators
• On the Map
• Background on LED
• From Industries to Occupations and
  Skills
• Closing Discussion

                                               63
Exercise
• For Your Local Area (or other)
  identify:
  – Top industry based on a combination
    of LED Indicators
  – Demographic profile of industry
  – Relevant commute and labor sheds
    for that industry
  – Top 3 occupations for that industry
  – Larger context of workforce activity for
    the local area

                                           64
So What?
• What would you tell your local elected
  official about this industry?
• What would you tell education and
  training providers?
• What changes in your business
  development strategy?
• Are there new policies and programs
  needed?
• Who are potential partners in getting
  things done?

                                           65
Closing Discussion

• Revisit parking lots or other unanswered
  questions
• Any other questions or comments
• Initial Reactions to the data
  – Missing? Most Valuable? Least Important?
• How do you plan on engaging others in
  using LED data?
• Please fill out the feedback form



                                           66
Questions or Comments?

Gary Yakimov
Director of Employer Initiatives
CSW
301.765.0437
gyakimov@skilledwork.org




                                   67

								
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