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					  PENGANTAR
NERACA-NERACA
MAKROEKONOMI
    MADDAREMMENG A. PANENNUNGI
          http://www.maddaremmeng.blog.com



Sumber: Mankiw, BPS, Wibisono&Roeslan,
          Depkeu, IMF (1999)
 A. Review Pengantar
Makroekonomi (Mankiw)
               Income, Expenditure
               And the Circular Flow
There are 2 ways        Total income of everyone in the economy
of viewing GDP          Total expenditure on the economy’s
                        output of goods and services
                           Income $
                            Labor
         Households                          Firms
                            Goods
                         Expenditure $
   For the economy as a whole, income must equal expenditure.
        GDP measures the flow of dollars in this economy.
                  Y = C + I + G + NX

Total demand                      Investment
for domestic   is composed       spending by
output (GDP)        of          businesses and
                                 households               Net exports
                                                         or net foreign
                      Consumption      Government           demand
                      spending by   purchases of goods
                       households      and services

     This is the called the national income accounts identity.
                     Y = C + I + G + NX
                                    Investment
 Total demand                                            Net exports
                  is composed      spending by
 for domestic                                           or net foreign
                       of         businesses and
 output (GDP)                                              demand
                                   households
                        Consumption           Government
                         spending by       purchases of goods
                         households           and services
We are going to assume a closed economy, therefore eliminating the
last term net exports, NX. So, the three components of GDP are
Consumption (C), Investment (I) and Government purchases (G).
Let’s see how GDP is allocated among these three uses.
                                 C
        C = C(Y- T)

                      disposable
          depends      income
            on
consumption                                               Y-T
spending by
 households           The slope of the consumption function is
                      the MPC.
 The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the amount by
   which consumption changes when disposable income (Y-T)
    increases by one dollar. To understand the MPC consider a
  shopping scenario. A person who loves to shop probably has a
large MPC, let’s say (.99). This means that for every extra dollar
 he or she earns after tax deductions, he or she spends $.99 of it.
 The MPC measures the sensitivity of the change in one variable
      (C) with respect to a change in the other variable (Y-T).
                                 I = I(r)
             Investment       depends
              spending                                   real interest rate
                                 on
The quantity of investment depends on the real interest rate, which
measures the cost of the funds used to finance investment. When
studying the role of interest rates in the economy, economists
distinguish between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate,
which is especially relevant when the overall level of prices is
changing. The nominal interest rate is the interest rate as usually
reported; it is the rate of interest that investors pay to borrow money.
The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate corrected for the
effects of inflation.
The investment function relates the quantity of investment I to the real
interest rate r. Investment depends on the real interest rate because the
interest rate is the cost of borrowing. The investment function slopes
downward; when the interest rate rises, fewer investment projects are
profitable.
              Real
            interest
             rate, r




                                                Investment function, I(r)

                                     Quantity of investment, I
      We take the level of government spending and
G=G   taxes as given. If government purchases equal taxes
      minus transfers, then G = T, and the government has a
T=T   balanced budget. If G > T, then the government is
                      running a budget deficit. If G < T,
                      then the government is running a
                      budget surplus.
     NX= X-M
• X=Exported Goods
• M=Imported Goods
      NX>0
      NX<0
The following equations summarize the discussion of the demand
for goods and services:


                       Y = C + I + G+X-M



The demand for the economy’s output comes from consumption,
investment, government purchases, and net export.
To this analysis, let’s add what we’ve learned about the supply
of goods and services earlier in the module. There we saw that the
factors of production and the production function determine the
quantity of output supplied to the economy:
                           Y = F (K,L)
                             =Y
Now, let’s combine these equations describing supply and demand
for output Y. Substituting all of our equations into the national
income accounts identity, we obtain:
                         Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G+X-X-M
and then, setting supply equal to demand, we obtain an equilibrium
condition:
                         Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G + X-M
This equation states that the supply of output equals its demand
    B. Introduction of
Macroeconomic Accounting
Alasan Perlunya System of National
  Account:
• Macroeconomic Analysis
• Intertemporal Comparison
• International Comparison

Neraca-neraca makroekonomi: GDP,
 GFS, BOP, MA, ditambah FOF, IO, dan
 SAM
1.Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
           Lapangan Usaha
•   GDP by Industrial of Origin : PDB
    adalah penjumlahan nilai tambah bruto
    (NTB) di tiap sektor lapangan usaha.
    NTB sendiri didefinisikan sebagai:

                 9
     NTB   NPB - NIA 
                i 1
                Contoh
• Kayu=10
• Diubah jadi papan=100
• Diubah jadi lemari=200

NTB=10 [10-0] + 90[100-10] + 100[200-
 100]=200
    Sektor Menurut Lapangan Usaha
• Pertanian
• Pertambangan dan Penggalian
• Industri Pengolahan/Manufaktur
• Listrik, gas dan air bersih
• Bangunan
• Perdagangan, restoran dan hotel
• Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
• Lembaga keuangan, Persewaan, dan Jasa
  Perusahaan
• Jasa-Jasa Lainnya
                             Tabel 1. PDB Menurut Lapangan Usaha Harga Konstan 2000 (Rp Milyar)
                                                            2000         2001         2002         2003          2004
Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan dan Perikanan            216,831.40 225,685.70 232,973.50 243,076.00           252,952.70
Pertambangan dan Penggalian                               167,692.20 168,244.30 169,932.00 168,426.70           160,655.20
Industri Pengolahan                                       385,597.90 398,323.80 419,388.10 441,754.70           469,118.40
Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih                                 8,393.70 9,058.30 9,868.20 10,448.10                11,066.10
Bangunan                                                   76,573.40 80,080.40 84,469.80 90,103.40               97,466.60
Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran                          224,452.60 234,273.10 243,409.30 256,299.50           271,176.70
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi                                65,012.10 70,276.10 76,173.10 84,979.00               95,772.20
Keuangan, Persewaan, dan Jasa Perusahaan                  115,463.10 123,085.50 130,928.10 140,117.30           150,936.10
Jasa-Jasa                                                 129,753.80 133,957.40 138,982.30 144,354.20           151,435.00
PDB                                                     1,389,770.20 1,442,984.60 1,506,124.40 1,579,558.90   1,660,579.00
2. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
             Pengeluaran
•   GDP by expenditure
•   PDB adalah penjumlahan dari elemen-
    elemen pengeluaran, yaitu:

     PDB CP  CG  IP  IG  X - M
     PDB Menurut Penggunaan
1.   Pengeluaran Konsumsi
     - Pengeluaran Rumah Tangga
     - Pengeluaran Pemerintah
2.   Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto (PMTDB)
3.   Perubahan Stok
4.   Ekspor Barang dan Jasa
5.   Impor Barang dan Jasa
            PDB (GDP) = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 - 5
6.   Pendapatan Faktor Produksi Neto dari Luar Negeri
            PNB (GNP) = PDB + 6
7.   Pajak Tidak Langsung
8.   Penyusutan
            PN (NI) = PNB - 7 - 8
                           Tabel 2. PDB Menurut Pengeluaran Harga Konstan 2000 (Rp Milyar)
                                                         2000        2001          2002          2003           2004
1 Pengeluaran Rumah Tangga                              856,798 886,736 920,698               956,178.30    1,010,607.37
2 Pengeluaran Pemerintah                               90,779.70 97,646.00 110,333.60         121,404.10      122,477.28
3 Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto              275,881.20 293,792.70 300,187.80        305,823.30      329,935.19
4 Perubahan Stok                                       20,138.60 32,658.50 29,195.20           19,319.60       32,917.60
5 Ekspor Barang&Jasa                                  569,490.30 573,163.40 567,313.30        604,619.20      633,450.22
6 Impor Barang&Jasa                                   423,317.90 441,012.00 423,347.30        435,185.20      468,808.67
  PDB                                                 1,389,769.9 1,442,984.6 1,504,380.6    1,572,159.30   1,660,579.00
3. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
Pendapatan [Balas Jasa Faktor Produksi]
•   GDP by income
•   PDB adalah penjumlahan balas jasa dari
    faktor-faktor produksi, yaitu:
•   PDB= Upah dan Gaji + Surplus Usaha
    + Pajak-Subsidi
  Menggunakan Input Output untuk PDB Pendapatan


           Int. Demand          Final Demand
          Z11   Z12   Z13   C1 I1     G 1 E 1 X1
          Z21   Z22   Z23   C2 I2     G 2 E 2 X2
Int.Inp   Z31   Z32   Z33   C3 I3     G 3 E 3 X3
          L1    L2    L3                      L
P.Inp     K1    K2    K3                      K
Import    M1    M2    M3
          X1    X2    X3    C     I   G   E
       Input Output Account and
      National Income Accounting
•   ∑Xj + C + I + G + E
•   ∑Xi + L + K + M
•   C + I + G + (E – M) = L + K = VA
•   VA = VA1 + VA2 + VA3
•   VA = (L1+K1)+(L2+K2)+(L3+K3)
  Berbagai Standard Aggregat
• GNI = GDP + Yf
• GNDI = GNI + Tr
• GNS = S = GNDI - C
   Berbagai Masalah/Kelemahan
      Perhitungan PDB/GDP
• Non Traded Goods = Social Work,
  Subsistence Farming, dll
• Kenaikan Kualitas, dimana harga turun,
  namun kualitas naik [contoh: komputer]
• Bads= polusi, krimimal, dll
• Black Market = underground
  market=illegal market
    PR 1 (Berhubungan PDB)
• Hitung pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
  tahunan dari 1995-2005
• Hitung ICOR Indonesia tahun 1994-1999
  dan 1999-2004 [lihat catatan ICOR]
                ICOR
  (Incremental Capital Output Ratio)
1.Tabungan (S) merupakan proporsi (s) dari Pendapatan atau Output
    (Y)
    S = s.Y
2. Investasi (I) didefinisikan sebagai perubahan stok kapital (dK)
    I = dK
    Diketahui pula bahwa ada hubungan langsung antara tingkat K dan
    Y
    K/Y = k Atau jika terjadi perubahan pada K dan Y, juga
    dK/dY = k atau dK = kdY. k Ini disebut ICOR
3. ICOR 1990-1993= (PMTDB 89+90+91+92)/(PDB 93-89)
4. Kita juga mengetahui bahwa total tabungan (S) sama dengan total
    investasi (I)
    S = I atau I = dK = k.dY atau S = s.Y = k.dY = dK = I
5. Secara singkat s.Y = k.Y atau dY/Y = s/k atau g=s/k
                                       4. APBN
                          Uraian                      2002      2003      2004
A. Pendapatan Negara dan Hibah                         298.7     341.3     349.8
   I.  Penerimaan Dalam Negeri                         298.6     340.8     349.2
       1  Penerimaan Perpajakan                        210.1     241.7     272.1
          a. Pajak Dalam Negeri                        199.6     230.7     260.2
             1.    Pajak Penghasilan                   101.9     114.9     133.9
                  a. Migas                               17.5      18.8      13.1
                  b. Non-Migas                           84.4      96.1    120.8
             2.    Pajak Pertambahan Nilai               65.2      76.8      86.3
             3. Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan                   6.2       8.8       8.0
             4. Bea PHTB                                  1.6       2.1       2.7
             5. Cukai                                    23.2      26.4      27.7
             6. Pajak Lainnya                             1.5       1.7       1.6
          b. Pajak Perdagangan Internasional             10.5      11.0      11.9
             1.    Bea Masuk                             10.3      10.8      11.6
             2.    Pajak/Pungutan Ekspor                  0.2       0.2       0.3
       2  Penerimaan Bukan Pajak                         88.5      99.1      77.1
          a. Penerimaan SDA                              64.8      67.6      47.2
          b. Bagian Laba BUMN                             9.8      12.6      11.5
          c. PNBP Lainnya                                13.9      18.9      18.4
   II. Hibah                                              0.1       0.5       0.6
B. Belanja Negara                                      322.2     378.6     374.3
   I.  Belanja Pemerintah Pusat                        224.0     257.9     255.3
       1  Pengeluaran Rutin                            186.7     190.2     184.4
          a. Belanja Pegawai                             39.5      47.5      56.7
          b. Belanja Barang                              12.8      15.0      17.3
          c. Pembayaran Bunga Utang                      87.7      68.9      65.7
             i. Utang Dalam Negeri                       62.3      46.4      41.3
             ii. Utang Luar Negeri                       25.4      22.5      24.4
          d. Subsidi                                     40.0      43.8      26.3
             i. Subsidi BBM                              31.2      30.0      14.5
             ii. Subsidi Non BBM                          8.8      13.8      11.0
             iii. Bantuan/PSO                             0.0       0.0       0.8
          e. Pengeluaran Rutin Lainnya                    6.7      15.0      18.4
       2  Pengeluaran Pembangunan                        37.3      67.7      70.9
          a. Pembiayaan pembangunan rupiah               25.6      49.8      50.5
          b. Pembiayaan proyek                           11.7      17.9      20.4
   II. Belanja untuk Daerah                              98.2    120.7     119.0
       1  Dana Perimbangan                               94.7    111.4     112.1
          a. Dana Bagi Hasil                             24.9      31.8      26.9
          b. Dana Alokasi Umum                           69.2      76.9      82.1
          c. Dana Alokasi Khusus                          0.6       2.7       3.1
       2  Dana Otonomi Khusus & Penyesuaian               3.5       9.3       6.9
C  Surplus/Defisit anggaran (A-B)                       -23.5     -37.3     -24.5
D  Pembiayaan Anggaran                                   23.6      37.7      24.4
   I.  Pembiayaan Dalam Negeri                           17.0      34.6      40.6
       1  Perbankan Dalam Negeri                         -8.2      10.7      19.2
       2  Non-perbankan dalam negeri                     25.2      23.9      21.4
   II. Pembiayaan Luar Negeri (neto)                      6.6       3.1     -16.2
       1  Penarikan Pinjaman Luar Negeri (bruto)         18.9      19.4      28.2
       2  Pembayaran Cicilan Pokok                      -12.3     -16.3     -44.4
Asumsi makroekonomi
             Pertumbuhan ekonomi (%)                      4.3       4.5       4.8
             Tingkat inflasi (%)                           10       5.1         7
             Nilai tukar Rp (Rp/US$)                     9311      8577      8900
             Suku bunga SBI 3 bulan (%)                 15.24      10.2       7.6
             Harga minyak internasional *US$/barel)      23.5     28.75        34
             Produksi minyak (juta barel/hari)           1.26     1.092     1.072
             PDB nominal (triliun Rp)                 1,614.6   1,786.9   1,998.9
    PR2 [Berhubungan APBN]
• Hitung masing-masing share pajak dalam negeri
  terhadap PDB dan Total Peneriaan dan jelaskan
  pola perubahan masing-masing.
• Hitung masing-masing share hutang dalam
  negeri, hutang luar negeri, dan subsidi BBM baik
  terhadap PDB maupun terhadap total
  pengeluaran serta jelaskan apa yang saudara
  ketahui sehubungan dengan perhitungan kedua
  hal tersebut.
  5. NERACA PEMBAYARAN
                     Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia, 1993-1998
                                     ( dalam juta US$ )
              Uraian           1993      1994      1995      1996      1997      1998
A. Transaksi Berjalan           -2.298    -2.960    -6.760    -7.801    -5.001     4.097
  I. Barang                      8.231     7.901     6.533     5.948    10.074    18.429
    1. Ekspor, fob              36.607    40.223    47.454    50.188    56.297    50.371
     a. non-migas               26.994    30.292    36.969    38.021    44.576    42.951
     b. migas                    9.613     9.931    10.485    12.167    11.721     7.420
    2. Impor, fob              -28.376   -32.322   -40.921   -44.240   -46.223   -31.912
     a. non-migas              -24.576   -28.697   -37.065   -39.870   -41.447   -29.087
     b. migas                   -3.800    -3.625    -3.856    -4.370    -4.776    -2.855
  II. Jasa-jasa (bersih)       -10.529   -10.861   -13.293   -13.749   -15.075   -14.332
    1. non-migas                -7.351    -7.973   -10.207   -10.249   -10.525   -11.420
    2. migas                    -3.178    -2.888    -3.086    -3.500    -4.550    -2.912
B. Transaksi Modal               5.962     4.008    10.589    10.989     2.542    -3.875
I. Modal Pemerintah (bersih)       743       307       336      -522     2.880     9.971
    1. Penerimaan                6.005     5.697     5.785     5.693     7.594    13.736
     a. CGI                      5.786     5.353     5.627     5.055     7.574     2.788
     b. di luar CGI                219       344       158       638        20    10.948
    2. Pelunasan Pinjaman       -5.262    -5.390    -5.449    -6.215    -4.714    -3.765
II. Modal swasta (bersih)        5.219     3.701    10.253    11.511      -338   -13.846
    1. Pen. modal langsung       2.003     2.108     4.346     6.194     4.677      -356
    2. lainnya                   3.216     1.593     5.907     5.317    -5.015   -13.490
C. Jumlah                        3.084     1.048     3.829     3.188    -2.459       222
D. Selisih Perhitungan          -2.923      -242    -2.313     1.264     1.716     2.122
E. Lalu Lintas Moneter *)         -741      -806    -1.516    -4.451       743    -2.344
*) negatif berarti surplus, positif berarti defisit.
Sumber : Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia, berbagai penerbitan (Wibisono dan Roeslan).
 PR3 [Berhubungan dgn BOP]
• Buat grafik dan analisis yang
  menggambarkan perubahan current
  account dari 1995-2005
            6. Neraca Sistem Moneter
                [Monetary Survey]
                                                    1999     2000     2001     2002



Net foreign assets                                   121.3    163.2    210.8    228.4
   NIR of BI                                         116.1    170.7    190.4    198.0
   Other NFA                                           5.2     -7.5     20.4     30.3

Net domestic assets                                  563.8    631.5    676.3    698.9
   Net claims on government                          403.2    522.7    535.8    513.8
       Budget                                        -50.8    -55.1    -54.0    -77.2
       Other (including bank restructuring bonds)    454.0    577.8    589.8    591.1
   Claims on business sector                         253.7    335.3    376.3    412.9
       Rupiah claims                                 175.3    186.1    232.0    304.0
       Foreign exchange claims                        78.4    149.2    144.3    108.9
   Other items (net)                                 -93.1   -226.4   -235.8   -227.8
     of which: adjustment due to consolidation       -93.6    -79.5   -100.4   -110.4

Broad money (M2)                                     685.1    794.7    887.1    927.3
   Rupiah broad money                                552.4    630.1    722.7    772.4
      Currency                                        58.4     72.4     76.3     80.7
      Deposits 2/                                    494.0    557.7    646.4    691.7
   Foreign exchange deposits                         132.8    164.6    164.4    154.9
 C. Hubungan Antar
Neraca Makroekonomi
  A. Identitas Pendapatan Nasional
1. Pendapatan dan Absorption
GDP= C + I + G + X – M
GNI= C + I + G + X – M + Yf
GNDI= C + I + G + X – M + Yf + TRf
CAB= X-M + Yf + TRf
A=C+I+G
GNDI=A+CAB
GNDI-A=CAB
2. Pendapatan dan Saving Investment Gap
GNDI=C+S+T
S-I + T-G = CAB
(Sp-Ip) + (Sg-Ig) = CAB
         B. Private Sector
Sp-Ip = GNDIp – Cp – Ip = Private S-I Gap
Fp=…? [How to finance the gap?]



Fp= FDIp + NFBp + Δ NDCp - ΔM2 – NB
FDIp=FDI= Foreign Direct Investment
NFBp=Net of Private Foreign Borrowing
Δ NDC= Net of Private Domestic Credit
ΔM2= Net of M2
NB= Net of Government Bond
       C.Government Sector
            Conventional Deficit=
  T.Revenue&Grants-T.Expenditure&Lending=
   Rg-Eg=Fg=…? {How to finance the gap?}
Eg= Cg (Current)+Ig (Investment)
Sg=Rg-Cg = Rg – (Eg-Ig)= Rg-Eg+Ig
                 Sg-Ig=Rg-Eg

          Fg= NFBg + ΔNDCg + NB
• NFBg= Net Foreign Borrowing=Bonds to
  Non Resident
• ΔNDCg= Net Domestic Credit for Govt
  both from CB and Off CB
• NB= Net Domestic Bonds
        D. Foreign Sector
Trade Balance=TB=X-M
Current Acc. Balance=CAB=TB+Yf+TRf
Overall Balance=CAB+Capital+Financial

 CAB= GNDI-A=X-M+Yf+TRf= ΔFI+ΔRES
       CAB=FDI + NFB + ΔRES
         ΔRES=(NFA+OINf)
ΔFI=Net Foreign Asset not in the banking
 system/non monetary flows
ΔRES=Net Foreign Asset in the banking
 system/monetary flows
NFA=Net Foreign Asset
OINf=Other Items Net
     What We Have Learn?

 GNDI-A                  X-M+Yf+TRf


                CAB

Sp-Ip + Sg-Ig         FDI+NFB-NFA-OINf
    Selanjutnya Harap Dibaca
• Macroeconomic Accounting in Transition
  Economy, IMF, 1999
• Indikator-Indikator Makroekonomi, Susanti
  et al, 2001
• The Pattern of Development, Chenery-
  Syrquin, 1978
• Indonesian Economy, Hill, 2000

				
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