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PENGANTAR
NERACA-NERACA
MAKROEKONOMI
MADDAREMMENG A. PANENNUNGI
http://www.maddaremmeng.blog.com
Sumber: Mankiw, BPS, Wibisono&Roeslan,
Depkeu, IMF (1999)
A. Review Pengantar
Makroekonomi (Mankiw)
Income, Expenditure
And the Circular Flow
There are 2 ways Total income of everyone in the economy
of viewing GDP Total expenditure on the economy’s
output of goods and services
Income $
Labor
Households Firms
Goods
Expenditure $
For the economy as a whole, income must equal expenditure.
GDP measures the flow of dollars in this economy.
Y = C + I + G + NX
Total demand Investment
for domestic is composed spending by
output (GDP) of businesses and
households Net exports
or net foreign
Consumption Government demand
spending by purchases of goods
households and services
This is the called the national income accounts identity.
Y = C + I + G + NX
Investment
Total demand Net exports
is composed spending by
for domestic or net foreign
of businesses and
output (GDP) demand
households
Consumption Government
spending by purchases of goods
households and services
We are going to assume a closed economy, therefore eliminating the
last term net exports, NX. So, the three components of GDP are
Consumption (C), Investment (I) and Government purchases (G).
Let’s see how GDP is allocated among these three uses.
C
C = C(Y- T)
disposable
depends income
on
consumption Y-T
spending by
households The slope of the consumption function is
the MPC.
The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the amount by
which consumption changes when disposable income (Y-T)
increases by one dollar. To understand the MPC consider a
shopping scenario. A person who loves to shop probably has a
large MPC, let’s say (.99). This means that for every extra dollar
he or she earns after tax deductions, he or she spends $.99 of it.
The MPC measures the sensitivity of the change in one variable
(C) with respect to a change in the other variable (Y-T).
I = I(r)
Investment depends
spending real interest rate
on
The quantity of investment depends on the real interest rate, which
measures the cost of the funds used to finance investment. When
studying the role of interest rates in the economy, economists
distinguish between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate,
which is especially relevant when the overall level of prices is
changing. The nominal interest rate is the interest rate as usually
reported; it is the rate of interest that investors pay to borrow money.
The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate corrected for the
effects of inflation.
The investment function relates the quantity of investment I to the real
interest rate r. Investment depends on the real interest rate because the
interest rate is the cost of borrowing. The investment function slopes
downward; when the interest rate rises, fewer investment projects are
profitable.
Real
interest
rate, r
Investment function, I(r)
Quantity of investment, I
We take the level of government spending and
G=G taxes as given. If government purchases equal taxes
minus transfers, then G = T, and the government has a
T=T balanced budget. If G > T, then the government is
running a budget deficit. If G < T,
then the government is running a
budget surplus.
NX= X-M
• X=Exported Goods
• M=Imported Goods
NX>0
NX<0
The following equations summarize the discussion of the demand
for goods and services:
Y = C + I + G+X-M
The demand for the economy’s output comes from consumption,
investment, government purchases, and net export.
To this analysis, let’s add what we’ve learned about the supply
of goods and services earlier in the module. There we saw that the
factors of production and the production function determine the
quantity of output supplied to the economy:
Y = F (K,L)
=Y
Now, let’s combine these equations describing supply and demand
for output Y. Substituting all of our equations into the national
income accounts identity, we obtain:
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G+X-X-M
and then, setting supply equal to demand, we obtain an equilibrium
condition:
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G + X-M
This equation states that the supply of output equals its demand
B. Introduction of
Macroeconomic Accounting
Alasan Perlunya System of National
Account:
• Macroeconomic Analysis
• Intertemporal Comparison
• International Comparison
Neraca-neraca makroekonomi: GDP,
GFS, BOP, MA, ditambah FOF, IO, dan
SAM
1.Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
Lapangan Usaha
• GDP by Industrial of Origin : PDB
adalah penjumlahan nilai tambah bruto
(NTB) di tiap sektor lapangan usaha.
NTB sendiri didefinisikan sebagai:
9
NTB NPB - NIA
i 1
Contoh
• Kayu=10
• Diubah jadi papan=100
• Diubah jadi lemari=200
NTB=10 [10-0] + 90[100-10] + 100[200-
100]=200
Sektor Menurut Lapangan Usaha
• Pertanian
• Pertambangan dan Penggalian
• Industri Pengolahan/Manufaktur
• Listrik, gas dan air bersih
• Bangunan
• Perdagangan, restoran dan hotel
• Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
• Lembaga keuangan, Persewaan, dan Jasa
Perusahaan
• Jasa-Jasa Lainnya
Tabel 1. PDB Menurut Lapangan Usaha Harga Konstan 2000 (Rp Milyar)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan dan Perikanan 216,831.40 225,685.70 232,973.50 243,076.00 252,952.70
Pertambangan dan Penggalian 167,692.20 168,244.30 169,932.00 168,426.70 160,655.20
Industri Pengolahan 385,597.90 398,323.80 419,388.10 441,754.70 469,118.40
Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih 8,393.70 9,058.30 9,868.20 10,448.10 11,066.10
Bangunan 76,573.40 80,080.40 84,469.80 90,103.40 97,466.60
Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran 224,452.60 234,273.10 243,409.30 256,299.50 271,176.70
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi 65,012.10 70,276.10 76,173.10 84,979.00 95,772.20
Keuangan, Persewaan, dan Jasa Perusahaan 115,463.10 123,085.50 130,928.10 140,117.30 150,936.10
Jasa-Jasa 129,753.80 133,957.40 138,982.30 144,354.20 151,435.00
PDB 1,389,770.20 1,442,984.60 1,506,124.40 1,579,558.90 1,660,579.00
2. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
Pengeluaran
• GDP by expenditure
• PDB adalah penjumlahan dari elemen-
elemen pengeluaran, yaitu:
PDB CP CG IP IG X - M
PDB Menurut Penggunaan
1. Pengeluaran Konsumsi
- Pengeluaran Rumah Tangga
- Pengeluaran Pemerintah
2. Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto (PMTDB)
3. Perubahan Stok
4. Ekspor Barang dan Jasa
5. Impor Barang dan Jasa
PDB (GDP) = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 - 5
6. Pendapatan Faktor Produksi Neto dari Luar Negeri
PNB (GNP) = PDB + 6
7. Pajak Tidak Langsung
8. Penyusutan
PN (NI) = PNB - 7 - 8
Tabel 2. PDB Menurut Pengeluaran Harga Konstan 2000 (Rp Milyar)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1 Pengeluaran Rumah Tangga 856,798 886,736 920,698 956,178.30 1,010,607.37
2 Pengeluaran Pemerintah 90,779.70 97,646.00 110,333.60 121,404.10 122,477.28
3 Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto 275,881.20 293,792.70 300,187.80 305,823.30 329,935.19
4 Perubahan Stok 20,138.60 32,658.50 29,195.20 19,319.60 32,917.60
5 Ekspor Barang&Jasa 569,490.30 573,163.40 567,313.30 604,619.20 633,450.22
6 Impor Barang&Jasa 423,317.90 441,012.00 423,347.30 435,185.20 468,808.67
PDB 1,389,769.9 1,442,984.6 1,504,380.6 1,572,159.30 1,660,579.00
3. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Menurut
Pendapatan [Balas Jasa Faktor Produksi]
• GDP by income
• PDB adalah penjumlahan balas jasa dari
faktor-faktor produksi, yaitu:
• PDB= Upah dan Gaji + Surplus Usaha
+ Pajak-Subsidi
Menggunakan Input Output untuk PDB Pendapatan
Int. Demand Final Demand
Z11 Z12 Z13 C1 I1 G 1 E 1 X1
Z21 Z22 Z23 C2 I2 G 2 E 2 X2
Int.Inp Z31 Z32 Z33 C3 I3 G 3 E 3 X3
L1 L2 L3 L
P.Inp K1 K2 K3 K
Import M1 M2 M3
X1 X2 X3 C I G E
Input Output Account and
National Income Accounting
• ∑Xj + C + I + G + E
• ∑Xi + L + K + M
• C + I + G + (E – M) = L + K = VA
• VA = VA1 + VA2 + VA3
• VA = (L1+K1)+(L2+K2)+(L3+K3)
Berbagai Standard Aggregat
• GNI = GDP + Yf
• GNDI = GNI + Tr
• GNS = S = GNDI - C
Berbagai Masalah/Kelemahan
Perhitungan PDB/GDP
• Non Traded Goods = Social Work,
Subsistence Farming, dll
• Kenaikan Kualitas, dimana harga turun,
namun kualitas naik [contoh: komputer]
• Bads= polusi, krimimal, dll
• Black Market = underground
market=illegal market
PR 1 (Berhubungan PDB)
• Hitung pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
tahunan dari 1995-2005
• Hitung ICOR Indonesia tahun 1994-1999
dan 1999-2004 [lihat catatan ICOR]
ICOR
(Incremental Capital Output Ratio)
1.Tabungan (S) merupakan proporsi (s) dari Pendapatan atau Output
(Y)
S = s.Y
2. Investasi (I) didefinisikan sebagai perubahan stok kapital (dK)
I = dK
Diketahui pula bahwa ada hubungan langsung antara tingkat K dan
Y
K/Y = k Atau jika terjadi perubahan pada K dan Y, juga
dK/dY = k atau dK = kdY. k Ini disebut ICOR
3. ICOR 1990-1993= (PMTDB 89+90+91+92)/(PDB 93-89)
4. Kita juga mengetahui bahwa total tabungan (S) sama dengan total
investasi (I)
S = I atau I = dK = k.dY atau S = s.Y = k.dY = dK = I
5. Secara singkat s.Y = k.Y atau dY/Y = s/k atau g=s/k
4. APBN
Uraian 2002 2003 2004
A. Pendapatan Negara dan Hibah 298.7 341.3 349.8
I. Penerimaan Dalam Negeri 298.6 340.8 349.2
1 Penerimaan Perpajakan 210.1 241.7 272.1
a. Pajak Dalam Negeri 199.6 230.7 260.2
1. Pajak Penghasilan 101.9 114.9 133.9
a. Migas 17.5 18.8 13.1
b. Non-Migas 84.4 96.1 120.8
2. Pajak Pertambahan Nilai 65.2 76.8 86.3
3. Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan 6.2 8.8 8.0
4. Bea PHTB 1.6 2.1 2.7
5. Cukai 23.2 26.4 27.7
6. Pajak Lainnya 1.5 1.7 1.6
b. Pajak Perdagangan Internasional 10.5 11.0 11.9
1. Bea Masuk 10.3 10.8 11.6
2. Pajak/Pungutan Ekspor 0.2 0.2 0.3
2 Penerimaan Bukan Pajak 88.5 99.1 77.1
a. Penerimaan SDA 64.8 67.6 47.2
b. Bagian Laba BUMN 9.8 12.6 11.5
c. PNBP Lainnya 13.9 18.9 18.4
II. Hibah 0.1 0.5 0.6
B. Belanja Negara 322.2 378.6 374.3
I. Belanja Pemerintah Pusat 224.0 257.9 255.3
1 Pengeluaran Rutin 186.7 190.2 184.4
a. Belanja Pegawai 39.5 47.5 56.7
b. Belanja Barang 12.8 15.0 17.3
c. Pembayaran Bunga Utang 87.7 68.9 65.7
i. Utang Dalam Negeri 62.3 46.4 41.3
ii. Utang Luar Negeri 25.4 22.5 24.4
d. Subsidi 40.0 43.8 26.3
i. Subsidi BBM 31.2 30.0 14.5
ii. Subsidi Non BBM 8.8 13.8 11.0
iii. Bantuan/PSO 0.0 0.0 0.8
e. Pengeluaran Rutin Lainnya 6.7 15.0 18.4
2 Pengeluaran Pembangunan 37.3 67.7 70.9
a. Pembiayaan pembangunan rupiah 25.6 49.8 50.5
b. Pembiayaan proyek 11.7 17.9 20.4
II. Belanja untuk Daerah 98.2 120.7 119.0
1 Dana Perimbangan 94.7 111.4 112.1
a. Dana Bagi Hasil 24.9 31.8 26.9
b. Dana Alokasi Umum 69.2 76.9 82.1
c. Dana Alokasi Khusus 0.6 2.7 3.1
2 Dana Otonomi Khusus & Penyesuaian 3.5 9.3 6.9
C Surplus/Defisit anggaran (A-B) -23.5 -37.3 -24.5
D Pembiayaan Anggaran 23.6 37.7 24.4
I. Pembiayaan Dalam Negeri 17.0 34.6 40.6
1 Perbankan Dalam Negeri -8.2 10.7 19.2
2 Non-perbankan dalam negeri 25.2 23.9 21.4
II. Pembiayaan Luar Negeri (neto) 6.6 3.1 -16.2
1 Penarikan Pinjaman Luar Negeri (bruto) 18.9 19.4 28.2
2 Pembayaran Cicilan Pokok -12.3 -16.3 -44.4
Asumsi makroekonomi
Pertumbuhan ekonomi (%) 4.3 4.5 4.8
Tingkat inflasi (%) 10 5.1 7
Nilai tukar Rp (Rp/US$) 9311 8577 8900
Suku bunga SBI 3 bulan (%) 15.24 10.2 7.6
Harga minyak internasional *US$/barel) 23.5 28.75 34
Produksi minyak (juta barel/hari) 1.26 1.092 1.072
PDB nominal (triliun Rp) 1,614.6 1,786.9 1,998.9
PR2 [Berhubungan APBN]
• Hitung masing-masing share pajak dalam negeri
terhadap PDB dan Total Peneriaan dan jelaskan
pola perubahan masing-masing.
• Hitung masing-masing share hutang dalam
negeri, hutang luar negeri, dan subsidi BBM baik
terhadap PDB maupun terhadap total
pengeluaran serta jelaskan apa yang saudara
ketahui sehubungan dengan perhitungan kedua
hal tersebut.
5. NERACA PEMBAYARAN
Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia, 1993-1998
( dalam juta US$ )
Uraian 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
A. Transaksi Berjalan -2.298 -2.960 -6.760 -7.801 -5.001 4.097
I. Barang 8.231 7.901 6.533 5.948 10.074 18.429
1. Ekspor, fob 36.607 40.223 47.454 50.188 56.297 50.371
a. non-migas 26.994 30.292 36.969 38.021 44.576 42.951
b. migas 9.613 9.931 10.485 12.167 11.721 7.420
2. Impor, fob -28.376 -32.322 -40.921 -44.240 -46.223 -31.912
a. non-migas -24.576 -28.697 -37.065 -39.870 -41.447 -29.087
b. migas -3.800 -3.625 -3.856 -4.370 -4.776 -2.855
II. Jasa-jasa (bersih) -10.529 -10.861 -13.293 -13.749 -15.075 -14.332
1. non-migas -7.351 -7.973 -10.207 -10.249 -10.525 -11.420
2. migas -3.178 -2.888 -3.086 -3.500 -4.550 -2.912
B. Transaksi Modal 5.962 4.008 10.589 10.989 2.542 -3.875
I. Modal Pemerintah (bersih) 743 307 336 -522 2.880 9.971
1. Penerimaan 6.005 5.697 5.785 5.693 7.594 13.736
a. CGI 5.786 5.353 5.627 5.055 7.574 2.788
b. di luar CGI 219 344 158 638 20 10.948
2. Pelunasan Pinjaman -5.262 -5.390 -5.449 -6.215 -4.714 -3.765
II. Modal swasta (bersih) 5.219 3.701 10.253 11.511 -338 -13.846
1. Pen. modal langsung 2.003 2.108 4.346 6.194 4.677 -356
2. lainnya 3.216 1.593 5.907 5.317 -5.015 -13.490
C. Jumlah 3.084 1.048 3.829 3.188 -2.459 222
D. Selisih Perhitungan -2.923 -242 -2.313 1.264 1.716 2.122
E. Lalu Lintas Moneter *) -741 -806 -1.516 -4.451 743 -2.344
*) negatif berarti surplus, positif berarti defisit.
Sumber : Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia, berbagai penerbitan (Wibisono dan Roeslan).
PR3 [Berhubungan dgn BOP]
• Buat grafik dan analisis yang
menggambarkan perubahan current
account dari 1995-2005
6. Neraca Sistem Moneter
[Monetary Survey]
1999 2000 2001 2002
Net foreign assets 121.3 163.2 210.8 228.4
NIR of BI 116.1 170.7 190.4 198.0
Other NFA 5.2 -7.5 20.4 30.3
Net domestic assets 563.8 631.5 676.3 698.9
Net claims on government 403.2 522.7 535.8 513.8
Budget -50.8 -55.1 -54.0 -77.2
Other (including bank restructuring bonds) 454.0 577.8 589.8 591.1
Claims on business sector 253.7 335.3 376.3 412.9
Rupiah claims 175.3 186.1 232.0 304.0
Foreign exchange claims 78.4 149.2 144.3 108.9
Other items (net) -93.1 -226.4 -235.8 -227.8
of which: adjustment due to consolidation -93.6 -79.5 -100.4 -110.4
Broad money (M2) 685.1 794.7 887.1 927.3
Rupiah broad money 552.4 630.1 722.7 772.4
Currency 58.4 72.4 76.3 80.7
Deposits 2/ 494.0 557.7 646.4 691.7
Foreign exchange deposits 132.8 164.6 164.4 154.9
C. Hubungan Antar
Neraca Makroekonomi
A. Identitas Pendapatan Nasional
1. Pendapatan dan Absorption
GDP= C + I + G + X – M
GNI= C + I + G + X – M + Yf
GNDI= C + I + G + X – M + Yf + TRf
CAB= X-M + Yf + TRf
A=C+I+G
GNDI=A+CAB
GNDI-A=CAB
2. Pendapatan dan Saving Investment Gap
GNDI=C+S+T
S-I + T-G = CAB
(Sp-Ip) + (Sg-Ig) = CAB
B. Private Sector
Sp-Ip = GNDIp – Cp – Ip = Private S-I Gap
Fp=…? [How to finance the gap?]
Fp= FDIp + NFBp + Δ NDCp - ΔM2 – NB
FDIp=FDI= Foreign Direct Investment
NFBp=Net of Private Foreign Borrowing
Δ NDC= Net of Private Domestic Credit
ΔM2= Net of M2
NB= Net of Government Bond
C.Government Sector
Conventional Deficit=
T.Revenue&Grants-T.Expenditure&Lending=
Rg-Eg=Fg=…? {How to finance the gap?}
Eg= Cg (Current)+Ig (Investment)
Sg=Rg-Cg = Rg – (Eg-Ig)= Rg-Eg+Ig
Sg-Ig=Rg-Eg
Fg= NFBg + ΔNDCg + NB
• NFBg= Net Foreign Borrowing=Bonds to
Non Resident
• ΔNDCg= Net Domestic Credit for Govt
both from CB and Off CB
• NB= Net Domestic Bonds
D. Foreign Sector
Trade Balance=TB=X-M
Current Acc. Balance=CAB=TB+Yf+TRf
Overall Balance=CAB+Capital+Financial
CAB= GNDI-A=X-M+Yf+TRf= ΔFI+ΔRES
CAB=FDI + NFB + ΔRES
ΔRES=(NFA+OINf)
ΔFI=Net Foreign Asset not in the banking
system/non monetary flows
ΔRES=Net Foreign Asset in the banking
system/monetary flows
NFA=Net Foreign Asset
OINf=Other Items Net
What We Have Learn?
GNDI-A X-M+Yf+TRf
CAB
Sp-Ip + Sg-Ig FDI+NFB-NFA-OINf
Selanjutnya Harap Dibaca
• Macroeconomic Accounting in Transition
Economy, IMF, 1999
• Indikator-Indikator Makroekonomi, Susanti
et al, 2001
• The Pattern of Development, Chenery-
Syrquin, 1978
• Indonesian Economy, Hill, 2000
