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Establishing an Integrated System by dfsiopmhy6

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									Establishing an Integrated System



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There are a number of steps that should be       from providing forecasts to the water
followed in establishing an integrated flood     management sector of the economy.
forecast, warning and response system.
These steps are very important and have          The following are steps required for
been introduced in greater detail earlier in     establishing an improved integrated system.
these Guidelines. The intent of this section     Each of these components should be
is to provide a brief overview of these steps.   considered in the overall design with
In doing so, there will be some reiteration of   emphasis on strengthening the weakest links
previously introduced concepts and material.     within the existing system.

The first step for a community, country or       • Design improved meteorological
region is to conduct an assessment of the           observing network
existing flood forecast programme. Each of
the links or components of the forecast          • Design improved hydrological network
system should be evaluated as to its                (precipitation and stream gauges)
effectiveness.
                                                 • Automate the meteorological and
After the existing system has been assessed,        hydrological networks
a new and improved system can be
designed. The new system design should           • Establish real-time communication
strengthen the weak links of the existing           system to move data reliably from field to
forecast system, meet the needs of the users,       the forecast office
and provide sufficient accuracy and lead
time to reduce flood losses to the maximum       • Establish operational network
possible extent. Like any other project, the        maintenance plan
new forecast system will be subject to cost
constraints and must therefore concentrate       • Determine feasibility of existing and new
on those improvements that will yield the           ground-based radar for estimating
greatest benefits in terms of reducing human        quantitative precipitation products
and economic losses.
                                                 • Determine feasibility of using
Frequently financial institutions supporting        geostationary and polar orbiting satellite
flood forecast modernization projects will          products
require an economic analysis or feasibility
study to determine the benefits versus the       • Integrate in-situ precipitation data with
costs of the project and subsequent                 satellite and radar precipitation estimates
programmes. Usually there are significant
economic gains that can be realized by           • Establish hydrometeorological database
investing in an integrated flood forecast           and management system
system. For example the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration           • Select hydrological and hydraulic models
National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) is              appropriate for river basin conditions and
proposing investing $US 60 million in the           needs of the users
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services
(AHPS) project. The economic analysis            • Establish real-time linkages between
demonstrated benefits of $US 360 million            databases and modelling system
per year from reducing flood losses and



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                                               Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
• Link numerical weather prediction            • Establish response strategies with
  model products to the hydrological              communities, emergency services, and
  forecast system (Quantitative                   civil protectorate organizations
  Precipitation Forecasts and Climate
  Forecasts)                                   Once the design of the improved integrated
                                               system has been completed, this design must
• Determine the training needs for new         then be incorporated into a project proposal
  hydrological forecast methods versus         with associated costs and time lines for
  current forecaster knowledge                 approval by the various governmental
                                               entities involved, as well as by donor and
• Establish training programmes and            financial institutions. Once approved, a
  materials                                    detailed implementation plan must be
                                               developed. It should show how the various
• Design real-time communications system       components of the new system would be
  to disseminate routine forecasts and         completed and integrated into a sustainable
  warnings to target audiences (e.g.,          forecast programme.
  communities, media, mayors,
  government officials)                        The science and technology required to
                                               produce a fully integrated flood forecast and
• Establish user group networks and            response system are available today. There
  protocols to interact with forecasters and   are many systems now operating that have
  system outputs to ensure forecast            achieved a high degree of integration and
  products are appropriately designed for      sustainability. Cooperation amongst levels of
  the users                                    government, ministries, civil society and
                                               private industry is absolutely necessary to
• Establish an "Operations Concept" that       achieve an integrated programme.
  defines how the hydrological forecast        Interaction between meteorological and
  centre will operate in routine operations    hydrological organizations is essential for
  as well as during major flood episodes in    establishing a viable flood forecasting,
  the improved system                          warning and response programme.




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