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                Global Business
                Opportunities in the
                Lubricant Basestocks
                Industry, 2004-2020
                A comprehensive business report on the global market for lubricant
                basestocks, specifically focusing on:

                   Supply and demand by type, viscosity grade, API Group, and region
                   Key formulation approaches
                   Emerging end-use applications
                   Intermaterial competition
                   Channels
                   Emerging basestock manufacturing technologies, including GTL
                   Manufacturing costs
                   Competitive forces
                   Business opportunities




                  Featuring Kline’s FutureView Scenario Forecasting Model




                                                          Published: April 2005




                       www.klinegroup.com
            Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020




The global lubricant basestocks business is experiencing unprecedented activity due to changes in fin-
ished lubricant specifications. In the last five years, the industry has seen significant variation in capaci-
ty brought about by basestock plant closings, addition of grass roots capacity, transfers in basestock
plant ownership, joint ventures, and addition of higher-performance API Group II, II+, and III capacity.
Although change has taken place at a rapid rate, more is yet to come. In fact, some suggest that the
most significant changes are still ahead, and with them, even more important challenges.


Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020 is a syndicated
analysis designed specifically to help subscribers navigate the challenging "white water" of change that
lies ahead. In addition to providing an objective and thorough analysis of basestock supply and
demand, the study presents an unbiased, forward-thinking assessment of what the business will look
like in the next 15 years on a global basis. It also addresses the opportunities that will be presented as
the industry moves through this period of rapid change.


The report provides subscribers with:

   An objective evaluation of where the basestock business is today and where it is going
   A clear understanding of supply and demand drivers
   A pragmatic analysis of competitive forces
   An unbiased assessment of future supply and demand for specialty basestocks
   – Low saturates, high-VI Group I
   – High saturates, high-VI Group II
   – Group II+ basestocks
   – Group III basestocks
   – Group III+ (GTL)
   – Naphthenic basestocks
   A critical examination of potential premium enjoyed by specialty basestocks
   Insights into projected plant closings, expansions, and grass roots investments
   An objective appraisal of the future role of GTL conversion in basestock manufacturing
   Forecast scenarios from which to build solid business plans
   Valuable insights and information on emerging business opportunities
                 Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020


                                                                                        Table of Contents

1.   INTRODUCTION                                                    7.   INTERNATIONAL TRADE
                                                                          Import
2.   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                    Export
                                                                          Trade balances
3.   LUBRICANT DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECAST                               Outlook
     Industrial lubricants
     Consumer automotive lubricants                                  8.   MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
     Commercial automotive lubricants                                     Paraffinic basestock manufacturing schemes
                                                                          GTL basestock processing scheme
4.   GLOBAL BASESTOCK DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECAST                        Naphthenic basestock processing scheme
     Paraffinic basestocks                                                Re-refined basestock processing scheme
     Naphthenic basestocks                                                PAO manufacturing scheme

5.   GLOBAL BASESTOCK SUPPLY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST                   9.   BASESTOCK MANUFACTURING COST
     Overall paraffinic supply                                            Representative basestock plants
     Current and forecast paraffinic supply by viscosity grade and        Manufacturing economic analysis
     API group                                                            Cash cost analysis
     – 50/90N
     – 100N/130N                                                     10. LUBRICANT BASESTOCK PRICING ANALYSIS
     – 150N                                                              Paraffinic basestock pricing outlook
     – 195N to 450N                                                      – By viscosity grade
     – 500N/800N                                                         – By API group
     – Brightstock
     Overall naphthenic supply                                       11. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS
     Current and forecast naphthenic supply by grade                     Volume
     – Transformer oil                                                   Value
     – 80 to 130                                                         Regions and countries
     – 200 to 300
     – 400 to 800                                                    12. SUPPLIER PROFILES
     – =>1,200
                                                                     A list of suppliers is provided in Table 1. For each of the suppliers,
     Current and forecast naphthenic supply by grade                 the following information is provided:
                                                                           Background
6.   SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE
                                                                           Lube oil business
     Paraffinic basestocks
                                                                           Basestock production
     Naphthenic basestocks
                                                                           Manufacturing technology
                                                                           Marketing issues
                                                                           Outlook


                                                Table 1: LIST OF PROFILED SUPPLIERS




                                 Idemitsu




                                                                                                 Valero
       Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020




Objective and Scope                                       The study is segmented into 12 chapters, as outlined
                                                          in the Table of Contents. The study is written in
It is clear that the face of the basestock business has   English. Each of the chapters featured in the study is
changed significantly over the last five years, as many   described below:
of the changes forecast in Kline's prior studies have
already come to fruition. Plants have closed, bases-      1. Introduction. This section provides important
tock prices have dropped in line with forecasts,             background information to assist subscribers in
demand for Group II and specialty basestocks has             the efficient and accurate use of the study. It
increased, and joint ventures, mergers, and acquisi-         includes information on the report scope and
tions continue to consolidate the supply side of the         methodology, limitations, definitions, and unit con-
business.                                                    versions.
                                                          2. Executive summary. This section provides a con-
Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant               cise, executive-style overview of key report find-
                            2
Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020 provides subscribers          ings.
with a comprehensive, accurate, and independent           3. Lubricant Demand Analysis and Forecast.
appraisal of both the global supply and demand and           This section covers the important issues affecting
business opportunities as the lubricant basestock            the global demand for finished lubricants and
business faces the challenges of the new millennium.         basestocks. Consumer-driven factors that affect
                                                             the growth of finished lubricants and basestocks
The study focuses specifically on paraffinic and naph-       are discussed in detail. In addition, macroeconom-
thenic basestocks used in commercial automotive,             ics, new industry standards, government regula-
consumer automotive, and industrial lubricant and            tions, and technological changes affecting the
functional fluid applications. The base year for the         quality and quantity of finished lubricants and
supply and demand data is 2004. The study includes           basestocks are identified. Specifically, the section
projections for 2010, 2015, and 2020.                        provides insights and information in the following
                                                             areas for each product type listed in
The geographic scope includes North America, Latin           Table 2.
America, Western Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and
a Rest of the World category, which includes Central          Properties and specifications
and Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and oth-         Finished lubricant demand (volume)
ers. International trade will also be examined in the
                                                              Formulations and blending
report, as the basestock business is increasingly
becoming truly global.                                        Basestock demand
                                                              Market developments
                                                              Forecast
Study Format                                                  – Assumptions
                                                              – Finished lubricants
Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant                – Basestocks
                            2
Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020 is designed specifi-
cally to provide subscribers with the information and
insights required to construct sound business plans
and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the
dynamic lubricant basestock business.
         Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020




                    Table 2: FINISHED LUBRICANT PRODUCT TYPES THAT ARE ANALYZED IN THIS REPORT

Indus trial                                                Consumer Automotive
                                                                    Automotive                                              Automotive
                                                                                                                 Commercial Automotive
      Process oil-a                                             PCMO and two-cycle oil                                   HDMO
      Hydraulic fluid                                           ATF, power steering fluid,                               Hydraulic and transmission
      Metalworking fluid                                        shock absorber fluid-b                                   fluid
      Industrial engine oil                                     Gear oil                                                 Gear oil
      Turbine and circulating oil                               Grease                                                   Grease
      Grease
      Compressor and refrigeration oil
      Other general industrial oil
a- Includes aromatic extract, electrical oil, rubber oil, white oil, and other paraffinic and naphthenic process oils.
b- Includes CVTs.


4. Global Basestock Demand Analysis and                                                  The analysis provides supply and demand balance
   Forecast. This section provides an in-depth analy-                                    by basestock, type, grade, and technology, includ-
   sis of global basestock demand by product type,                                       ing forecast balance for Group I, II, II+, III, and III+.
   viscosity grade, and API Group, as shown in Table                                     In addition, it assesses the impact of gas-to-liquid
   3. Both current and forecast demand are analyzed                                      conversion on the future balance of supply and
   based on finished lubricant demand and the                                            demand.
   blending approaches detailed in Section 3.
                                                                                    7.   International Trade. The section provides an
     In addition to providing information and insights                                   overview of the current basestock market in vari-
     on demand for 2004, this section includes a                                         ous regions of the world, as well as the likely
     demand forecast for 2010, 2015, and 2020.                                           changes that may affect the global basestock bal-
                                                                                         ance. The section segments the world into five
5. Global Basestock Supply Analysis and                                                  regions: North America, Latin America, the Asia-
   Forecast. The supply of the two types of bases-                                       Pacific region, Western Europe, and the Rest of
   tocks---paraffinic and naphthenic---are discussed                                     the World region, which includes Central and
   in this section, which also provides a detailed                                       Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and
   analysis of current and future supply capability, as                                  others.
   well as industry capacity utilization. In addition,
   this section includes a pragmatic analysis of each                               8. Manufacturing Technology Assessment. This
   leading supplier's position in the market and the                                   section describes the various manufacturing
   outlook for its lubricant basestock plants.                                         schemes and the process units used to manufac-
                                                                                       ture lubricant basestocks. Included in this section
6. Supply and Demand Balance. This section con-                                        are manufacturing schemes used to produce API
   solidates the insights and information gathered                                     Group I through III+ basestocks and a processing
   from Sections 3 through 5 of this study into a                                      scheme to produce naphthenic basestocks.
   comprehensive analysis of finished lubricants and
   basestock supply and demand for 2004. Based
   on this information, the study will provide projec-
   tions for 2010, 2015, and 2020.
       Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020




                          Table 3: TYPES AND GRADES OF BASESTOCK FEATURED IN SECTION 4


            Group I                      Group II            Group II+/III/III+               N aphthenic
            50/90N                       50/90N                 3.0 cS                           35/60
            100/130N                     100/130N               4.5 cS                           80/130
            150N                         150N                   6.0 cS                           200/300
            195/450N                     195/450N                                                400/800
            500/800N                     500/800N                                                =>1200
            Brightstock




9. Basestock Manufacturing Cost Analysis. This                 10. Lubricant Basestock Pricing Analysis. This
   section presents a representative manufacturing                 section provides a pricing outlook for paraffinic
   cost analysis for each process scheme that is                   and naphthenic basestocks. The outlook compris-
   used in producing paraffinic basestocks. The cost               es pricing by basestock viscosity grade and API
   analysis will be based on five typical process tech-            Group, including pricing for high-VI 100N Group II
   nologies. Production cost estimates will be based               basestocks. The forecast is based on supply,
   on information from a variety of sources, including             demand, basestock balance, and exports markets.
   industry publications, Kline & Company's nonconfi-
   dential in-house database, interviews with indus-           11. Business Opportunities and Threats. This sec-
   try experts, and widely accepted methods of deter-              tion is designed specifically to provide subscribers
   mining capital investments and cost estimation for              with an actionable and objective analysis of busi-
   refineries.                                                     ness opportunities in the global lubricant bases-
                                                                   tock market. It is based on a structured frame-
    Representative cost sheets of different configura-             work of analysis designed to identify opportunities
    tions, along with their material balance and sum-              in volume and value. In addition, it seeks to identi-
    marizing results, are included in this section. This           fy regional opportunities, as well as those associ-
    section also includes the results of all the calcula-          ated with potential mergers, acquisitions, partner-
    tions and the cash cost analysis, along with a                 ships, and strategic alliances.
    cash cost curve, excluding the names of the pro-
    ducers.                                                    12. Supplier Profiles. Understanding the competi-
                                                                   tion is basic to growing your business. This is par-
    Finally, the section takes into account other busi-            ticularly critical in the synthetic lubricants busi-
    ness drivers such as captive demand, level of                  ness, where, with the exception of engine oil, the
    quality of existing production, required environ-              market is relatively diffuse.
    mental investment, and other factors that may
    affect a refinery's viability. This analysis will con-
    clude with Kline & Company's assessment of
    which refineries will be at risk.
       Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020




    The supplier profiles featured in this chapter pro-    Forecasts in this report will be generated with Kline's
    vide subscribers with an excellent resource to         FutureView Scenario Forecasting Model. With the
    sharpen their awareness of the position of suppli-     enhanced forecasts, subscribers can see how adjust-
    ers in the marketplace. The basestock business         ments in the assumptions behind the forecasts can
    activity of 19 basestock manufacturers are exam-       bring about different outcomes over a 15-year period.
    ined. The profiles, each of which is approximately
    six pages in length, serve as a resource for the
    competitive intelligence and insights required to      Subscription Options and Privileges
    benchmark your business activity. This awareness
                                                           Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant
    can be a powerful tool in developing a solid strate-
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Methodology                                                    One day of consultation with members of the
                                                               team at the Kline Group's offices in Little Falls, NJ,
As the leading global consultancy covering lubricants
                                                               or Brussels, Belgium, to be used at the client's dis-
and functional fluids, Kline & Company has developed
                                                               cretion within six months of the receipt of the
an analytical approach based heavily on primary
                                                               report. This meeting can be used as a work-ses-
research (i.e., field and telephone interviews). This
                                                               sion to help each subscriber obtain maximum
approach has a proven track record as the most effec-
                                                               value from the program.
tive and reliable in analyzing the lubricants business,
as well as in identifying business opportunities.
                                                               Hard copy, online, and pdf versions of the
Although primary research by far is the leading source         report. Subscribers will receive one hard copy of
of information and insights provided in Global                 the report, a CD-ROM containing the report files in
Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks             pdf format, and access to the online version of the
Industry, 2004-2020, the analysis is supplemented by
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secondary research. This secondary research includes:          online access to the report contents for employ-
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          The Kline Group


                                                  Credentials
Kline & Company, Inc. is an international business       Competitive Intelligence for the Global Lubricants
and management consulting firm offering a broad          Industry, 2002-2012 - Year One

range of services to the petroleum and energy, spe-      Competitive Intelligence for the Global Lubricants
                                                         Industry, 2003-2013 - Year Two
cialty chemicals, and related industries.
                                                         Business Opportunities in the Chinese Lubricants
                                                         Market, 2004-2009
Established in 1959 as a specialist in the chemicals
                                                         GTL Specialties: High-Value Threat or Opportunity?
field, Kline has evolved over the past four decades      Volume I: Lubricant Basestocks; Volume II: Waxes
to provide consulting services and syndicated mar-
                                                         Opportunities in Lubricant North America
ket research reports across the entire value chain.      Continuing Industry Analysis
We help management solve practical problems in           Global Business Opportunities in Metalworking
marketing strategies, acquisition and divestiture        Fluids, 2001-2003 -Volume I: North America;
programs, and the appraisal of new technology.           Volume II: Asia-Pacific; Volume III: Europe

Kline provides clients with facts, forecasts, and rec-   Lubricant Additives North America, 2002-2007

ommended solutions to business problems, based           Selling Lubricants Online 2001
solidly on the realities of the market as well as mod-   Lubricant Basestocks, The Americas 2001
ern strategic principles.                                Business Opportunities in the Latin American
                                                         Lubricants Market 2000

Through our Petroleum & Energy practice, Kline has       The Outlook for Packaging in Consumer Automotive
attained a leadership position in providing consult-     Lubricants 2000

ing services to the petroleum industry, and particu-     Synthetic Lubricants and Functional Fluids, 1999-
                                                         2004
larly the lubricants and additives sectors. Our firm
                                                         Global Opportunities in Fuel Additives, 1999-2004
has developed in-depth expertise in this area by
tracking and analyzing the U.S. and international        Global Opportunities and Threats in the Petroleum
                                                         Wax Business 1997
markets for lubricants used in consumer, commer-
                                                         Metalworking Fluids Asia-Pacific 1997
cial, and industrial markets.
                                                         The Changing Face of the Lube Oil Basestock
                                                         Business 1996
Over the past four decades, Kline has established
                                                         The Outlook for Petroleum Waxes, 1990-2000
itself as an authoritative source for market research
for petroleum and lubricant products. A list of repre-
sentative reports Kline has published recently and
those currently in progress is provided below:
Global Business Opportunities in the Lubricant Basestocks Industry, 2004-2020

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