Draft Report on Retail Company by qzb52899

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 22

Draft Report on Retail Company document sample

More Info
									California Residential CFL Market
Status


  CPUC – Energy Division
  Hearing Room A
  June 16, 2009
Overview

 Awareness and Use of CFLs in California
 CFL sales
  – Statewide sales
  – ULP shipments
 CFL price
 Residential CFL penetration and market potential
 Lessons learned in other regions




                                                     2
Awareness and Use of CFLs
                                                                                                CFL Awareness, 2008

 96% of residential
                                                                        California            Comparison Area
                                                 100%




                        Percent of Respondents
                                                                       95.8%

  customers in CA                                95%
                                                                                                     91.6%*
                                                 90%

  IOU territories are                            85%


  aware of CFLs                                  80%



  – 92% in comparison
                                                 75%
                                                                                       2008


    area                                                                                                  CFL Use, 2008
                                                   California
 79% of aware
                                                                               Comparison Area

                                                          6%
                                                                                              13%
                                                                10%
  consumers in CA                                                 5%                                            Unfamiliar
                                                                                                    17%
  report that they                                                                                              Not tried
                                                                                                                Previous User
                                                                                                     5%         Current User
  currently use CFLs                                79%
                                                                                65%*



  – 66% in comparison
    area                * Difference from CA results is statistically significant at
                        the 90% level of confidence. Source (both figures): CFL
                        Market Effects Final Interim Report, 2009.
                                                                                                                                3
                                                                                                                               Draft Data
                                                                                                                              DO NOT CITE
CA Total CFL Sales v. ULP Shipments
                                                                                                                CA CFL Sales and ULP


 Total 2007 CFL sales totaled
                                                                                                                   Shipments, 2007




                                                                               Number of CFLs (Millions)
                                                                                                           60


  approximately 55.6 million                                                                               40

  – ULP shipments represented ~75% of                                                                      20

    total 2007 CFL sales in CA                                                                              0
                                                                                                                Total Statewide       ULP
                                                                                                                  CFL sales        Shipments *


 Greater                   CA CFL Sales                                                                              ULP Shipments
                                                           Grocery
                                                                                                                by Retail Channel, 2007 *
  proportion           by Retail Channel, 2007
                                                           Discount                                                        2%

  of ULP                                 24%
                                                           Drug
                                                                                                                    15%
  shipments              35%
                                                           Hardware
                                                                                                                                      39%

  through                                                  Home Improvement                                     10%

                                               12%         Mass Merchandise/                                     8%
  non-big box                                              Membership Club
                                                           Other
                                                                                                                      7%
                                          5%                                                                                 19%
  than total                   21%

                                           3%

  CA sales           * Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.
                     Sources: CFL Market Effects Interim Report, 2009 and IOU 2006-
                     2008 ULP tracking data.
                                                                                                                                                 4
                                                                                                                Draft Data
                                                                                                               DO NOT CITE
ULP CFL Shipments
 74% of 2006-2008 ULP shipments went to non-big box
  stores (grocery, discount, drug, small hardware)
     Upstream Lighting Program CFL Shipments by IOU and Retail Channel, 2006-2008

       100%
                 10%                 8%                                 10%
                                                      16%
                                     5%
                  7%                                                     7%
        80%                          8%
                  8%                                   9%                8%
                                     4%                                                    Other
                                     4%                                  7%
                 10%                                  13%                                  Ltg & Electronics
                                                                         7%                Membership Club
        60%       9%                                   4%
                                    25%                                                    Mass Merchandise
                                                      11%               19%                Home Improvement
                 16%
                                                                                           Hardware
        40%                                           14%                                  Drug
                                                                                           Discount
                                                                                           Grocery
                                    44%
        20%      38%                                                    40%
                                                      32%



         0%
                PG&E *              SCE              SDG&E             All IOUs


                       * Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.
                                  Source: IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data.
                                                                                                                       5
                                                                                                                                                           Draft Data
                                                                                                                                                          DO NOT CITE
                            ULP CFL Styles
 11% of 2006-2008 ULP shipments were specialty CFLs
                             – PG&E/SDG&E had greater focus on specialty CFLs than SCE
                             – PG&E provided incentives for the largest volume of specialty CFLs (~6.5M)
 Three-way, reflector, and globes comprised the majority of ULP
                             specialty CFL incentives

                                 ULP CFL Styles by IOU, 2006-2008                                                        ULP Specialty CFL Styles by IOU, 2006-2008
                            50                                                                                           7
                                                                                                                         6                                Three-way




                                                                                             Number of CFLs (Millions)
                                                                 Specialty
Number of CFLs (Millions)




                            40                                                                                                                            Reflector
                                                                 Bare Spiral                                             5
                                                                                                                                                          Globe
                            30                                                                                           4
                                                                                                                                                          Dimmable
                                                                                                                         3                                A-lamp
                            20
                                    85%           95%                                                                    2
                            10
                                                                                                                         1
                                                                     86%
                             0                                                                                           0
                                    PG&E *        SCE              SDG&E                                                       PG&E *         SCE           SDG&E

                                                        * Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.
                                                                   Source: IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data.
                                                                                                                                                                      6
                                                                                                                    Draft Data
                                                                                                                   DO NOT CITE
California CFL Price
 Incremental cost for non-IOU vs. IOU-discounted lamps
  – $2.00 for basic bare spirals
  – Roughly $2.50-$7.50 for specialty lamps
 Reflector CFLs among most abundant and most expensive specialty
  styles
       Average CA Prices for IOU-Discounted CFLs, Non-IOU CFLs, and All CFLs by Style, 2008
                                                            Price                             Number of Lamps
                                                            IOU-                                   IOU-
      Style                                   Non-IOU    Discounted       All CFLs    Non-IOU   Discounted    All CFLs
      Basic Bare Spiral                   $       3.07 $       1.09 $          2.79       6,739       1,075       7,814

      Specialty Lamps
      A-lamp                              $       4.06   $     1.71   $        3.78        607          81          688
      Reflector                           $       7.14   $     3.25   $        6.72        741          88          829
      Globe                               $       4.93   $     1.06   $        4.29        330          65          395
      Torpedo/Bullet                      $       4.51   $     1.07   $        3.98        208          38          246
      Dimmable or Three-way Spiral        $       9.46   $     1.87   $        8.85        216          19          235
      Bug Light                           $       6.57   $     3.29   $        6.49         81           2           83
      Tube-style/U-shaped                 $       7.58   $     1.19   $        6.85         31           4           35
      Circline                            $      12.59          n/a   $       12.59          5           0            5
      Other                               $       7.80   $     0.95   $        7.48         41           2           43

      All Specialty                       $       5.98 $       1.95 $          5.51       2,260        299        2,559

      All CFLs                            $       3.80 $       1.27 $          3.46       8,999       1,374      10,373
      Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by
      KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs.
      DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS.
                                                                                                                           7
                                                                                                                                          Draft Data
                                                                                                                                         DO NOT CITE
California CFL Price
 Average prices for IOU-discounted CFLs are similar to
  prices for comparable incandescent styles
  – For basic bare spirals and also for specialty lamps
Average CA Prices for Incandescent Lamps, IOU-Discounted CFLs, Non-IOU CFLs, and All CFLs, 2008

                                                Incandescent Lamp    IOU-Discounted CFL       Non-IOU CFL     All CFLs

                       $7.00
                                                                                    $5.98
                       $6.00                                                                 $5.51
      Price Per Lamp




                       $5.00
                                                                                                                         $3.80
                       $4.00                                                                                                     $3.46
                                                 $3.07
                                                         $2.79      $2.70
                       $3.00
                                                                            $1.95
                       $2.00                                                                          $1.26    $1.27
                                        $1.09
                                $0.84
                       $1.00

                       $-
                               Basic Bare Spiral* / Incandescent            Specialty Lamp                    All Lamp Styles
                                           A-Lamp

     * “Basic Bare Spiral” refers to single-wattage non-dimmable bare spiral CFLs.
     Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by
     KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs.
     DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS.                                                               8
California Residential CFL Penetration
 91% of CA homes in IOU territories have 1 or more CFLs installed
 Average number of lamps per home is 48.7
 Average number of CFLs per home is
  – 10.3 among all homes
  – 11.3 among homes that have 1 or more CFLs installed
                    Percent of California IOU-Territory Homes by
                          Number of CFLs Installed, 2008


                                13%
                                           9%

                                                                 Zero
                                                                 1 to 5
                          20%
                                                      32%        6 to 10
                                                                 11 to 20
                                                                 20+
                                    26%




                    Source : Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential
                             Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
                                                                               9
 California Residential CFL Penetration
                                                    Sockets with CFLs by Lamp Shape,
 Approximately 21% of sockets                      Base Type and Control Type, 2008
                                                                           Percent of
 are currently using CFLs                               Lamp Shape           CFLs
                                                        Spiral                 73.5%
 – 74% of these CFLs are spirals                        Reflector
                                                        A-lamp
                                                                                7.1%
                                                                                2.7%
 – 90% are MSB                                          Globe
                                                        Decorative
                                                                                3.8%
                                                                                1.0%

 – 7% are on controls other than                        Other shapes           11.9%


   on/off switch                                        Base Type
                                                                           Percent of
                                                                             CFLs
    3% of all CFLs are in dimmable                     MSB
                                                        SSB
                                                                               90.3%
                                                                                1.3%
     sockets                                            Pin-base                8.4%

    4% of all CFLs are in 3-way                                           Percent of
     sockets                                            Control Type         CFLs
                                                        On/Off                 93.1%
                                                        Dimmer or 3-way         6.9%
                                                      n = 6,583 sockets.
                                    Source: Preliminary Results from the
                                   CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering
                                                   Study (KEMA, 2009).
                                                                                        10
 CA Residential Lighting Market Potential
 Sockets can be characterized by energy savings
  potential
  – “Higher potential” sockets are in locations with relatively
    high hours of use and/or relatively low on/off switch
    rates
  – “Lower potential” sockets are in locations with relatively
    low hours of use and/or relatively high on/off switch
    rates
     Note that for the purposes of this analysis, hours of use are
      based on 2005 CA CFL Metering Study (metering results not yet
      available from current study)
 Final characterizations will reveal lamp style/control
  combinations with greatest/least remaining residential
  market potential                                                    11
                                                                                                                       Draft Data
                                                                                                                      DO NOT CITE
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential
                                                2008 Remaining CA (non-CFL) MSB
 53 million MSB “high use                     A-Lamp Sockets with On/Off Controls
                                                       by Savings Potential
  sockets” available for CFL




                                              Number of Available MSB Sockets (Millions)
                                                                                           160
  installation                                                                             140
  – Such sockets currently use non-CFL                                                     120
                                                                                                                         Lower
    a-lamps with on/off controls                                                           100                           Savings
                                                                                                                         Potential
  – 145M total non-CFL MSB a-lamps in                                                       80
                                                                                                                         Higher
    use                                                                                     60                           Savings
                                                                                                                         Potential

 42 million MSB spiral CFLs                                                                40

                                                                                            20
  (“basic CFLs”) are in storage in                                                           0

  CA households                                                                                  MSB A-lamp (On/Off
                                                                                                     Controls)

  – If installed in highest use locations,      Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s
     these could theoretically achieve       Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
                                             Higher/lower characterizations based on HOU from
     most of the remaining energy                        2005 CFL Metering Study.

     savings for a-lamps
                                                                                                                                     12
                                                                                                                                                                                         Draft Data
                                                                                                                                                                                        DO NOT CITE
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential

 Reflector and globe style MSB lamps with on/off controls
  represent the greatest potential among specialty lamps
  – Higher/lower savings potential designations below are a
                              placeholder for final data from current metering study

                                         45                                                                                                                                       2008 Remaining
                                                                                                                                                                                  (non-CFL) MSB
    Millions of Available MSB Sockets




                                         40                                                                                                Lower Savings Potential
                                         35                                                                                                Higher Savings Potential               Sockets by Lamp
                                         30                                                                                                                                       Type, Control Type,
                                         25                                                                                                                                       and Savings
                                         20                                                                                                                                       Potential
                                         15
                                         10
                                          5
                                          0
                                                                               Decorative




                                                                                                                         Decorative




                                                                                                                                                                     Decorative
                                                           Reflector




                                                                                                     Reflector




                                                                                                                                                 Reflector
                                                A-lamp




                                                                                            A-lamp




                                                                                                                                      A-lamp
                                                                       Globe




                                                                                                                 Globe




                                                                                                                                                             Globe
                                                         On/Off Controls                             Dimmable                                    Three-Way


                                        Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
                                                                                                                                                                                                        13
                                                                                                                                                                                               Draft Data
                                                                                                                                                                                              DO NOT CITE
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential
 Small screw-base (SSB) lamps represent 10% of total
  residential sockets
 Decorative lamps with on/off controls represent greatest
  remaining SSB potential
  – Higher/lower savings potential designations below are a
                                 placeholder for final data from current metering study

                                                                                                                                                                                        2008 Remaining
                                                 45
    Number of Available SSB Sockets (Millions)




                                                                                                                                                                                        (non-CFL) SSB
                                                 40                                                                                              Lower Savings Potential
                                                                                                                                                                                        Sockets by Lamp
                                                 35                                                                                              Higher Savings Potential
                                                                                                                                                                                        Type, Control Type,
                                                 30
                                                                                                                                                                                        and Savings
                                                 25
                                                                                                                                                                                        Potential
                                                 20
                                                 15
                                                 10
                                                  5
                                                  0
                                                                                     Decorative




                                                                                                                               Decorative




                                                                                                                                                                           Decorative
                                                                 Reflector




                                                                                                           Reflector




                                                                                                                                                       Reflector
                                                      A-lamp




                                                                                                  A-lamp




                                                                                                                                            A-lamp
                                                                             Globe




                                                                                                                       Globe




                                                                                                                                                                   Globe
                                                               On/Off Controls                             Dimmable                                    Three-Way

        Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).                                                                                                         14
 The Northwest CFL Market
 The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) began
  promoting CFLs in 1997
  – Began offering strategic/targeted upstream CFL incentives in 2005
     Excluded large home improvement (DIY) stores and wholesale
       clubs starting in 2006
 NEEA reached its 2009 CFL sales goal at the end of 2007
  (10.8M CFLs/year)
  – Withdrew CFL incentives from the Northwest market in early 2008
 Other Northwest energy-efficiency program sponsors
  (e.g., BPA) continued CFL incentives in 2008
  – Roughly half of 2008 incentives in the Northwest were for specialty
    lamps


                                                                          15
 California vs. Northwest
 California and the Northwest have had similar
 CFL promotion strategies
 – Began market support in big box stores, transitioned
   focus toward grocery/drug/small hardware
 – Began market support for basic bare spirals and
   introduced specialty CFLs later
 California and Northwest CFL markets and
 incentive strategies differ in at least 3 ways
 – CFL sales volume
 – CFL retail channels
 – CFL price
                                                          16
                                                                                                  Draft CA Data
                                                                                                  DO NOT CITE
California vs. Northwest CFL Sales
 Annual California CFL
  sales are double Northwest
  sales                                                Estimated Incentive and Non-Incentive CFL Sales
                                                            in California and the Northwest, 2007
 Incentive CFL sales in                                       60


  California comprise a far                                    50
                                                                       27%
                                                                                           Non-Incentive Sales
                                                                                           Incentive Sales




                                   Number of CFLs (Millions)
  greater proportion of total                                  40


  sales than in the Northwest                                  30


  – ULP incentive CFLs comprised                               20      73%
                                                                                                 73%
    73% of total California CFL                                10
    sales in 2007                                                                                27%
                                                                0
  – Incentive CFLs comprised 27%                                    California *               Northwest

    of Northwest CFL sales in                    * Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.
    2007                                         California Sources: (1) CFL Market Effects Final Interim Report,
                                                 2009; (2) IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data. Northwest Source:
       NEEA incentive CFL sales                 Fluid Market Strategies, 2009. Q4 2008 “Widget” CFL Sales Data
                                                 Report. Prepared for NEEA. March 6, 2009.
        comprised 11% of 2007
        Northwest CFL sales
                                                                                                                     17
California vs. Northwest CFL Retail
Channels
                              California CFL Sales        Grocery                    Northwest CFL Sales
 Non big box stores        by Retail Channel, 2007
                                                          Discount
                                                                                   by Retail Channel, 2007
                                                                                               3% 3%
  account for a greater                                   Drug
                                                24%
  proportion of overall       35%                         Small Hardware
                                                                                                        23%
  CFL sales in                                            Home Improvement
                                                                                      52%
                                                  12%
  California than in the                                  Mass Merchandise/
                                                5%        Membership Club                           19%
  Northwest                         21%                   Other
                                                 3%
  – 44% in California                                     Grocery
                                                                                  Northwest Promotional CFL
    versus 30% in          California ULP Shipments
                                                          Discount               Sales by Retail Channel, 2007
                            by Retail Channel, 2007
    Northwest
                                                          Drug

 Same applies to                 15%
                                                          Small Hardware
                                                                                                  13%

                                                 39%
  incentive CFL sales       10%                           Home Improvement           48%
                                                                                                        12%


  – 73% non big box in       8%                           Mass Merchandise/
                                                                                                          8%

                                                          Membership Club
    California, 33% in         7%
                                          19%             Other
                                                                                                  19%


    Northwest
                           CA Source: CFL Market Effects Interim Report, 2009.
                           Northwest Source: Fluid Market Strategies, 2009.
                                                                                                               18
                                                                                                                                     Draft CA Data
                                                                                                                                     DO NOT CITE
California vs. Northwest CFL Price
 CFL prices are lower in California than in the
  Northwest
  – Especially given that ULP CFL sales account for majority of
                   total CA CFL sales
                                   Average California and Northwest CFL Prices by Style, 2008

                           California - IOU discounted      California - Non-IOU           California - All CFLs      Northwest - All CFLs

                   $7.00                                                                    $6.36
                                                                        $5.98
                   $6.00                                                           $5.51

                   $5.00
  Price Per Lamp




                                                                                                                                   $4.29
                                                    $4.06
                                                                                                                   $3.80
                   $4.00                                                                                                   $3.46
                                   $3.07
                                           $2.79
                   $3.00
                                                               $1.95
                   $2.00
                           $1.09                                                                           $1.27
                   $1.00

                   $-
                              Basic Bare Spiral CFLs                    Specialty CFLs                               All CFLs

  CA Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by
  KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs.
  DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS.
  NW Source: KEMA, 2009. 2008-2009 CFL Tracking Study Draft Report. Prepared for NEEA.
                                                                                                                                              19
Summary: California vs. Northwest
 Broadly, California and Northwest have utilized similar
  incentive strategies
  – However, there are key differences between the California and
    the Northwest
     Incentive sales comprise a much larger proportion of total
       CFL sales in California than in Northwest
     California incentives provide greater support to non big box
       channels in California than in the Northwest
     CFL prices in California are considerably lower than in the
       Northwest
 No noteworthy changes Northwest CFL market after NEEA
  withdrew incentives in early 2008
  – Other entities provided CFL incentives instead
  – Incentives shifted toward specialty lamps
                                                                     20
Connecticut
 Department of Public Utility Control (DPUC) has
    directed CT utilities to:
    – Scale back incentives for “common” (basic bare
      spiral) CFLs
    – Shift incentives toward specialty bulbs
    – Increase promotion of CFLs in retail outlets where
      sales trail those of big box retailers
       Pay special attention to grocery and drug stores
    – Eliminate upstream incentives for common CFLs by
      2010

Source: Decision: State of Connecticut Department of Public Utility Control Docket No. 08-10-03.DPUC Review
of the Connecticut Light and Power Company’s and the United Illuminating Company’s Conservation and Load
Management for the Year 2009. Pages 14-15. May 7, 2009.                                                       21
Thank you for your attention.

 Jenna Canseco
 Senior Consultant
 KEMA, Inc.
 510-891-0446 x44121
 jenna.canseco@us.kema.com

								
To top