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Winkler - Slide 1

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 39

									Futures Markets Update




Julie Winkler
March 25, 2009
Outline
 • Background on CME Group and Product Development
   Process

 • Current Market Landscape

 • Developments in Commodity Markets

 • New Developing Markets - Emissions markets

 • Career Opportunities




                                                     2
    CME Group Overview
     • #1 derivatives exchange in the   • Deep liquidity in futures and
       U.S. and globally by 2008 volume   options
     • Founded in 1898                      – Execution and clearing services
                                                                                                              for interest rates, equities,
     • 2008 Pro Forma(1) Revenue of                                                                           energy, commodities, FX, metals
       $3.1bn
                                                                                              • Worldwide distribution through
     • Strong record of growth, both                                                            CME Globex
       organically and through
                                                                                              • Proven CME Clearing
       acquisitions
                                                                                                        – Listed futures and options
              – CBOT Holdings (2007)
                                                                                                        – OTC products via CME ClearPort
              – NYMEX Holdings (2008)




1. In this presentation, pro forma results for CME Group assume the acquisitions of CBOT and NYMEX were completed as of the beginning of
   the period presented. See the CME Group Inc. Reconciliation of GAAP to Pro Forma Non-GAAP Measures available on our Web site under
   the Investor Relations section for detail related to the adjustments made to reach the pro forma results.

                                                                                                                                            3
Diverse Product Portfolio and Customer Base
               Diverse Products                                          Diverse Customers Managing Risk
     Q4 2008 Pro Forma Revenue Mix                                        Customers, utilizing a wide range of
                                                                          trading goals and strategies for both
                         Foreign Exchange                                 hedging and speculating, include:
                                4%
                                    Commodities
                                                                                             Proprietary trading firms,
       Equities                        & Other
                                                                                             primarily algorithmic
        28%                              7%                                    34%
                                                                                             Proprietary trading of banks
                                                                                             and investment banks
                                                   Energy                      16%
  Notes                                             21%                                      Top 25 Hedge Funds
                                                                                 8%
and Bonds
   10%                                                                                       Other - includes smaller
                                                                               22%           member firms and individual
                                             Metals                                          traders
     Eurodollars                              3%
         9%                                                                                  Non-members, including:
                      Other Quote                                              20%           • Pension funds
                     Revenue Fees                                                            • Index funds
                       5%    13%                                                             • Long-only mutual funds
                                                                                             • Insurance companies
 • All five segments had a reduction in trading activity from Q308 to                        • Corporates
   Q408, but the proportion of the segments remained relatively stable                       • Active individual traders
 • Of the five segments, the non-member segment dropped the least
   and the hedge funds dropped the most from Q308 to Q408

 Note: Customer segmentation percentages are Q408 estimates and reflect legacy CME and CBOT products only

                                                                                                                            4
Overview of CME Group Research & Product
Development (RPD)
• Historically CME Group’s primary product development efforts were
  for exchange listed products on CME Globex and floor

• Changing marketplace has sparked need for innovation in clearing
  only offerings for the OTC market like Cleared Interest Rate Swaps
  and Credit Default Swaps

• RPD Team has responsibility for global product development for all
  CME Group asset classes: Commodities, Energy, Metals, Interest
  Rates and Credit, Equity Indexes, FX, Alternative Products, and
  Environmental Products for Green Exchange

• There are 30 RPD resources currently located in Chicago, New York,
  London, and Singapore to facilitate new product development,
  maintenance of our existing product suite, and general research
  and educational needs for our customers and employees
Overview of Product Development Process for
Exchange Traded Offerings
1. New Product Idea
   •   Comes from study of security, commodity and OTC market trends
   •   Input received from members, customers, independent innovators, index
       providers, partners, other staff, anywhere
2. Stage 1: Product Assessment completed by RPD
3. If “Go”, then RPD completes Stage 2: Feasibility Study
4. If “Go”, then proceed with internal and external approval process (CFTC or
   other regulator, if required)
5. RPD and Sales business owners proceed with marketing launch and internal
   technical setup process for New Product
6. Launch of New Product
7. Post-launch marketing and product support/modification
Key Questions When Developing New Products
• Product Design
     Develop a design which addresses market characteristics, delivery and trading issues
     Generally prefer deliverable contract to keep it “honest,” but do often resort to cash
        settlement
     Identify clear industry standards already in use and mirror futures contract after these
        standards; this will help foster acceptance of product

•    Market Description
     Ideally looking for a large, competitive cash market
     Market size, in outstanding value or turnover, is obvious criteria albeit without hard
        standards
       Positive trends in size and turnover of interest (growing market size with increasing
        turnover of interest)
       Market structure broadly categorized as competitive, oligopolistic, monopolistic
       Presence of many prospective natural buyers and sellers is ideal
       Volatility produces speculative opportunity and need to hedge
       Ideal market incorporates long-term trends and significant intra-day ranges
Key Questions (cont.)
• Product Alternatives
   Identify related products that with high correlations that can be used as a cross-hedge
   Basis risks, liquidity of alternate hedge vehicles

• Customer Evaluation
   Survey and assess customer demand by conducting trade calls with different types of
    potential customers (ideally 5-10 calls)
   Standardize survey questions so everyone is making the inquiries in the same way
   Document the research efforts so you can identify what participants have the most
    interest and are likely to be earlier adopters
   Identify willing market makers to provide two-sided quotes

• Strategic Positioning
   Consider experience of other exchanges, OTC competition, etc. and how that impacts
    this product introduction
   Evaluate if this new product supports an exchange strategic initiative
Current Market Landscape
  Uncertain Macroeconomic Environment in 2009
                               ADV trending up so far in Q1 2009
                       CME Group Pro Forma ADV
(round turns in millions)     by Month
                                                                         Opportunities
 18
 16
 14
                                                                • Significant Treasury debt
                                                                  issuance
 12
                                                    10.8
 10                                                             • Stabilization in credit,
  8                                                               mortgage and corporate debt
  6                                                               markets
  4                                                             • Redeployment of capital
  2
  0
                                                                • High, but moderating volatility
                                                                  levels
                                                                • Customer recognition of the
                                                      To Date


                                                                  value of CME Group services
 • Average daily volume across all product lines up from
   January 2009 to February 2009 to date
      Interest Rates up 15%    FX up 10%
      E-mini Equities up 14%   Commodities/Alt. Inv. Up 21%
      Equity Standard up 14%   Energy/Metals up 10%                                           10
Current Perceptions

“ All markets need more
transparency.”
                                                                “ Markets would
                                “ In 1994 we sounded a number be safer if they
                                of clear warnings …to assure
                                this rapidly growing [OTC]         were all on a
                                market did not result in systemic
                                problems for our economy.”            regulated
       “ OTC markets
         have had dire                                              exchange.”
    consequences…         “superiority”
        in contrast our
   markets have been
     a net positive for
        the economy.”
Plain Vanilla Credit Default Swap (CDS)
• Protection Buyer (PB) agrees to make quarterly payments to the Protection Seller (PS).
  In exchange for this quarterly “swap” payment, the PB establishes the right to sell the
  reference obligation (e.g., a bond or note) issued by a reference entity (e.g., a corporation
  or a sovereign entity) to the PS at the agreed upon notional value frequently established at
  par, if a credit event should occur.

• PB is reducing or hedging the credit risk component of the reference bond by transferring
  the credit risk to the PS. The PB’s asset remains subject to non-credit related elements of
  market risk.


                               Plain Vanilla Credit Default Swap (CDS)

             CDS Protection       Periodic Payment        CDS Protection
                Buyer             of CDS Premium              Seller

                         IF CREDIT EVENT OCCURS 
                                 Delivery of Reference
             CDS Protection         Obligation, e.g.,     CDS Protection
                Buyer           Corporate Bond vs. Cash       Seller
                                 Payment of Par Value
                                                                                           12
CDS Market is Contracting from $57T in mid-2008
                      CDS Notional Value Outstanding
                               Single Name CDS             Index/Tranche CDS
             70,000
             60,000
             50,000
  Billions




             40,000
             30,000
             20,000
             10,000
                 0
                                                 June.06




                                                                    June.07




                                                                                       June.08
                      Dec.04


                               Jun.05


                                        Dec.05




                                                           Dec.06




                                                                              Dec.07




                                                                                                 Dec.08


                                                                                                          13Mar.09
Source: BIS & DTCC
                                                                                                              13
Key Constituents in the Financial Markets
Many players which are part of the global financial eco-sphere, which are key
to the trade facilitation process and functioning of our financial markets.




                 Prime               Bank, Dealer &            Brokers/
                 Brokers              Broker Execs              IDBs


Trade Facilitators

                             Banks/               Customers/
                             Dealers               Hedgers
Regulators and                                                            Execution
   Central                                                                 Venues
    Banks
                                         Traders

                           Service                              FCMs/
                           Bureaus                             Clearing
                            Back                                Firms
                            Office
                                                                                  14
Market Demand for Clearing Services has Changed
 • Operational maturity and market dynamics developed considerably
  from 2000-2005
    • There wasn’t a core demand for central counterparty
    • CME used a platform approach to OTC (execution and clearing)
    • Central execution (CLOB) is not always the best place to quote markets


 • The nature and value of central counterparty has changed
    • Nationalization effects the risk taking and compensation for trading of the
     major Dealers – major deleveraging has taken place
    • Due to credit line reductions, mutualization of risk must occur in order to
     restore markets
    • Funds now concerned about their exposure to the banks and prime brokers
    • Opportunity to partner with sell-side to rebuild confidence in the markets, but
     still not easy



                                                                                        15
OTC Competitive Landscape
           ICE   LCH   Euronext/   Eurex   LME   CCX   ICDG   AgoraX   NASDAQ
                         Liffe                                          OMX

 Credit
  FX
  IR
Environ.
Energy
Metals
  Ags
Equities




                                                                          16
 OTC Clearing is Part of a 3-Pronged Offering

        • Primary venue is either liquid Central Limit         • S&P 500 Options
Standard Order Book on an electronic platform or open
                                                               • Eurodollar Futures
Product outcry                                                 • Corn futures
        • Blocks and EFPs facilitate alternative/OTC
          executions


         • Products in cash terms, with futures market protections
         • Clearing of custom versions of core products
 Hybrid                                                      • Swap Futures with
             Longer and flexible dates
  OTC /                                                        “adjustable” coupon
             Flexible delivery points
 Futures                                                     • Flexible Treasury Options
             User-Defined Swaps
                                                             • Energy on ClearPort
         • EFP/EFS/EFR and SUB trade types
         • Flexible execution platform
         • Build on deep liquidity of base markets

          •   Products in quoted & captured in cash terms
 Pure     •   Clearing of bespoke products, broadly flexible   • Credit Default Swaps
 OTC      •   Flexible execution platform                      • Gold Forwards
          •   Unique delivery/settlement mechanisms
                                                                                        17
Creating OTC Customer Value
CME Group’s open clearing service provides the operational and risk
management efficiencies of a central counterparty, offering a market driven
solution for OTC customers which:
1. Virtually eliminate counterparty risk
   • CME Group acts as the central counterparty to all transactions
   • Market Expansion – Expands access to more OTC market participants, opening credit
     lines and creating potential trading opportunities

2. Decrease cost and increase operational efficiencies
   • Balance Sheet Efficiencies – Exchange-style daily marking of positions dramatically
     reduces the need to allocate balance sheet to cover bi-lateral counterparty limits
   • Cross Margin Efficiencies – Offset cleared OTC positions with Futures and Options
     positions
   • Reduction of Documentation – Eliminates costly and cumbersome ISDA
     documentation

3. Access a full range of cleared OTC products


                                                                                      18
   Vital OTC Systems to Integrate to Clearing House
                                                                              Energy /
       Target Entity          IRS               FX             Credit                            Ags          Equities
                                                                               Metals

Bank Trading Desks        Asset-specific                    Asset-specific   Asset-specific                  Asset-specific
 (Dealers)                 Proprietary                       Proprietary      Proprietary                     Proprietary


                                           Asset-specific
Prime Brokers                               Proprietary


                                             TFS-ICAP,                          40+ Key
IDBs                          ICAP
                                             ICAP, etc                          Brokers
                                                                                              Key Brokers


Execution Platforms /                                          DTCC           ConfirmHub
                            MarkitWire      Reuters, EBS
 Affirmation & STP                                           Deriv/SERV          Pivot

                                                                                              Commercial /
                           Buy-Side /        Buy-Side /                      Commercial /                    Buy-Side / HFs
Customers / Hedgers        Corporates         Props
                                                              Buy-Side
                                                                               Props
                                                                                               Merchants /
                                                                                                                / Props
                                                                                                 Props

                                              Options
                                                               Limited
Clearing Firms            No Support Yet      Support
                                                               Support
                                                                                Today            Today           Today
                                              Needed

                                           Day 1 support
                                               today
Futures Service Bureaus                                     Wag The Dog,
                          No Support Yet                                        Today            Today           Today
R&N, SunGard                               Options & true   No Support Yet
                                              notional
                                           support needed
Regulatory and Central Banks Efforts
• Many products require similar application with CFTC or other
  governing bodies

                    Approval Required   Review Desired

       IRS          CFTC                SEC, FSA, FOA

      Credit        CFTC, Fed, SEC      FSA, FOA


                                        FSA, NY Fed, Bank of England, HKMA, Bank of Japan,
        FX          CFTC
                                        BIS, many other foreign monetary bodies


  Energy / Metals   CFTC



   Commodities      CFTC


     Equities       CFTC

                                                                                             20
Commodity Markets
Fundamental Changes in Commodity Markets
• Basic supply and demand principles in commodity markets are resulting in
  higher prices and greater price volatility:
   •   Weather and disease limiting supply        • Biofuel production increases

   •   Growing demand from developing countries   • Limited additional farmland in the short run

   •   Falling U.S. dollar                        • Restrictive export policies from some
                                                    major exporters
   •   Higher input costs related to increasing
       energy prices
• Agricultural markets are undergoing tremendous change, development, and
  adjustment. Traditional risk management tools have been forward-looking 1-3
  crop years.
• Higher risk resulted in market participants looking toward additional price risk
  management tools and longer-term protection.
• Hedging needs have also become more individualistic and are not as easily
  satisfied by standardized futures contracts where contract terms are
  standardized and liquidity is concentrated within the first couple of crop years.
• Instead, some market participants have looked to specialized swap dealers in the
  over-the-counter (OTC) market.
Agricultural Commodity Stocks Are
Extremely Low             Current ratio versus the 10-year average ratio:
      World
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
                                                                                         Corn at 13% vs. 21%
  40%                                                                                    Wheat at 19% vs. 27%
                                                                                        Soybean at 21% vs. 21%

  35%

                                                                                                                             Soybean
                                                                                                                              Wheat
  30%
                                                                                                                               Corn


  25%




  20%
                                                                                                                                              21%
                                                                                                                                              19%

  15%


                                                                                                                                              13%
  10%
           1990

                  1991

                         1992

                                1993

                                       1994

                                              1995

                                                     1996

                                                            1997

                                                                   1998

                                                                          1999

                                                                                 2000

                                                                                          2001

                                                                                                 2002

                                                                                                        2003

                                                                                                               2004

                                                                                                                      2005

                                                                                                                             2006

                                                                                                                                    2007

                                                                                                                                           2008
                                                                                                                                                  23

Source: www.usda.gov
Events Impacting Corn Prices Since June 2006
         Global supply concerns increase, as consumption
         rises faster than production. World stocks-to-use
                ratio at historical low in 2007 at 14.2% and
             projected to decline further to 12.6% in 2008.

                                 Prices stabilize due to
    Battle for acreage due        largest planted crop
   to increase in renewable      since 1946. Over 93
        fuels mandates.          million acres planted.




                                                                Overall macro economic
                                                                weakness has adversely
                                                               affected commodity prices
                                                               during the last half of 2008




                                                                                              24
Over Regulating US Commodity Markets Will Encourage Flow
to the Already Active OTC Markets and Overseas Exchanges
       • 112% growth in OTC commodities in two years while overseas exchange traded
         commodity market is now 57% of global annual volume
       • OTC commodity market is estimated at 5 times the size of the exchange traded
         commodity market
              Amounts Outstanding of OTC                             Annual Volume Turnover
                   “Other” Commodity                            for Exchange Traded Commodity
              Forwards, Swaps, and Options                                Derivatives
                    (including energy)




                                                         *Through September 2008



                                                                                          25

Source: BIS
Benefits of Ag OTC Products
• Commodity forwards, swaps, and options are being transacted in the OTC space
  on a variety of enumerated commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, dairy,
  and meat.
• Since OTC swaps are not guaranteed by centralized clearing, these market
  participants can be at risk for default. One potential solution to this problem is
  to have centralized clearing for these OTC swaps.
• Market participants are turning to CME Group and asking for central
  counterparty clearing for these types of OTC instruments in the agricultural
  sector.
• Currently CFTC Rules prohibit exchanges from clearing agricultural OTC swaps.
  If the CFTC grants exemptions to exchanges to clear agricultural OTC swaps,
  these tools can be available to more market participants without the risk of
  counterparty default.
• Introduction of cleared ag OTC products will provide market participants with
  new products to help them manage increasingly volatile basis risk, price
  exposure, and counterparty risk.
Definition of a Swap
• A swap is an agreement between counterparties to exchange cash flows over
  some period of time. The oldest and most popular swaps are exchanges of
  interest rates.
• A commodity swap is similar to an interest rate swap, but the parties are
  exchanging a fixed price for a commodity with a floating or variable price for the
  commodity.
   • Ethanol producer agrees to pay the farmer a fixed price of $5 per bushel for corn.
      In return, farmer agrees to pay ethanol producer a variable price for corn. For
      example, the price of CBOT Corn futures on the day the swap expires.
   • Assuming the swap expires on April 30, on that day the ethanol producer will pay
      the farmer $5 per bushel for corn and the farmer will pay the ethanol producer the
      settlement price on May CBOT Corn futures on April 30.
   • Commodity swaps are usually settled financially and there is no physical delivery.

                               Fixed: $5 per Bushel
              Farmer                                      Ethanol
                                                          Producer
                           Variable: May Corn Futures

          Plain Vanilla Commodity Swap between a Farmer and Ethanol Producer
Emissions Markets
Overview of the Emissions Markets
Term         Definition                        Example
Emissions    A market-based approach to        The EPA NOx Trading Program
Trading      control & reduce pollution.       requires electric power emitters
                                               to achieve a reduction on 10
                                               million tons per year below
                                               1980 emissions.
Cap- and-    The central mechanism for         Since 1992, the EPA
Trade        emissions trading programs.       SO2Trading Program was the
             Cap-and-trade programs set a      first Federal cap-and-trade
             pollution cap based on a prior    emissions trading program.
             year.
Compliance   Emissions trading programs are    The world voluntary carbon
and          either compliance or voluntary.   market consists of the Chicago
Voluntary    Compliance programs account       Climate Exchange (CCX) and
             for the majority of emissions     the OTC market.
             trading volume.

                                                                           29
Current State of the Emissions Market
• Largest multi-national, carbon trading program is the European Union
  Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), which began in 1995 under Kyoto. The
  second trading period began in Jan 2008 and will last until Dec 2012.
     The ETS covers over 10,000 EU energy and industrial installations. These covered facilities
      account for an estimated 50% of CO2 and greenhouse gas EU emissions.
     Covered emitters are allocated allowances by EU member states without charge. The total
      allowances provided to the states equal the allocated member state cap for the emitter. In
      addition, the emitter may purchase ETS allowances from others. Excess allowances can be
      sold to physical or financial market participants without restriction.

• In the first nine months of 2008, over 2 billion ETS allowances transacted
  with a notional value of $69 billion.

• Carbon-based futures/options, as well as OTC products, allow project
  developers to finance their efforts and hedge against price declines of the
  credits that will flow over multiple years. These products also aid emitters
  under compliance programs to manage their exposure to rising allowance
  and credit prices.

                                                                                                   30
Global Emissions Market Performance
• Currently, the global emissions trading is focused on carbon allowances,
  EUAs, with 72% of the market. Certified Emission Reductions (CER’s) make
  up the remaining 19%.
• In 2009 as compared to 2008, there have been nearly 60% increases in
  Futures OTC (OTC cleared by Exchange) and in Futures Screen transactions
  (electronically traded & cleared by Exchange). Options activity has
  decreased over 40% YOY.
                                                                                                      CFI Market
                                                                                                         1%
                                                                              CER Market                 SO2
                                                                                 19%                     3%

       2008 Global Emissions                                                                                  SFI
                                                                                                              3%
       Market Cleared Futures
                                                         EUA Market                                           RGGI
        Volumes by Product                                 72%                                                 1%
                                                                                                      Other
                                                                                                       1%




    Source: CME Group. Note this data aggregates ECX, CCFE, BlueNext, Nord Pool and Green Exchange.
                                                                                                                     31
Competitive Landscape
       Competitor                            Overview                          February 2009 Volume

Climate Exchange, PLC        • CCX operates a voluntary cap and trade     • CCX traded 74,079 CFI
(CLE) includes: Chicago        system.                                      contracts*, up 124% over Jan.
Climate Exchange (CCX),      • CCFE is a CFTC regulated futures           • CCFE traded 56,429 futures and
Chicago Climate Futures        exchange focusing on U.S. based              options contracts, up 13% over
Exchange (CCFE), and           environmental contracts.                     Jan. 2008 volume was up71%
European Climate Exchange    • ECX operates the preeminent global           over 2007.
(ECX).                         emissions exchange focused on              • ECX traded 447,135 EUA and
                               compliance certificates for the EU ETS       CER contracts, up 55% over Jan.
                               and related markets.                         Feb ADV was 22,357contracts.
BlueNext: An exchange        • Primarily an European exchange, but        • BN traded 228,637 EUA and
created by NYSE Euronext       plans to extend its business to Asia and     CER contracts, up 74% over Jan.
and Caisse des Dépôt .         North American in the near future.         • The historical volume of BN is
                             • Trades EUA and CER Spot and Futures          predominantly spot transactions.
Nord Pool: Owned by          • Power exchange and clearing house          • NP traded 5,800 CER and EUA
NASDAQ OMX Commodities.        which provides trading, clearing and         contracts, up 222% over Jan.
                               delivery of EUA and CER contracts.         .
European Energy              • Offers spot and derivatives trading on     • Specific volumes not available
Exchange (EEX): Formed         power, gas, emission allowances and
from merger of the Leipzig     coal.
Power Exchange & European    • Settlement ensured by an independent           * Note: All EUA and CER contracts
                                                                              are 1,000 metric tons of CO2,
Energy Exchange in 2002.       clearing house – ECC AG, an EEX                except for the CCX CFI contract is
                               subsidiary, and Eurex .                        100 metric tons of CO2.
                                                                                                             32
Green Exchange Value Proposition and Objectives


                  • Create an environmental product revenue stream by
     Value          providing a compelling mix of industry-leading execution
                    platforms and CME Group clearing in partnership with
  Proposition       unparalleled liquidity providers and product experts




                  • Position CME Group to gain significant share of the rapidly
                    growing environmental derivatives markets
                  • Partner with a small group of leading institutions to drive
  Strategic         liquidity and quality product design
  Objectives      • Offer a compelling mix of platform, product and liquidity ready
                    for the advent of U.S. compliance markets
                  • Focus on European markets in 2008 to 2010
                  • Initiate long-term U.S. market development activities


Informed industry observers believe the US carbon market could grow
                  to 2-3 times the European market.              33
Green Exchange Overview (cont.)
Current Activity for 17 Products Listed                                     Green Exchange
                                                                     Total Volume & Open Interest*
 • 42,600 in total volume (3/17/08 – 3/3/09)
                                                                30,000
 • 2,233 YTD volume for 2009                                                                       Total Volume
                                                                25,000
                                                                                                   Open Interest
 • ADV for 2008 = 189; ADV for 2009 = 77
                                                                20,000




                                                    Contracts
Green Exchange Key Offerings                                    15,000


 • Committed liquidity and order flow from core                 10,000

   partners                                           5,000

 • Superior product design driven by industry feedback 0
 • Cross-margining with other CMEG energy products
 • Superior technology, distribution and clearing

Next Steps
                                                                * Volume since inception (3/17/08-3/3/09);OI as of 3/3/09).
 • Finalize documentation with 13 GX partners
 • Close partnership agreement with TBD European commercial participant
 • Executive Committee to work with management to finalize definitive agreements
 • Green Exchange will be a separate entity with a CFTC regulatory designation (DCM)
U.S. Legislative Strategy Overview

              • Ensure the near term enactment of a U.S. cap and trade bill
Objective       that supports a healthy carbon derivatives market.




              • Politics, public policy goals and the complexity of the issues
Challenge       associated with cap and trade are factors in the outcome of
                the legislative process.



              • Work closely with Congress, the Administration, and
 Strategy       influential NGOs and trade associations to ensure that
                features essential to the Green Exchange business model
                are incorporated.


        We must operate as if a federal cap and trade bill
                   will be enacted in 2009                                 35
View of Optimal Cap & Trade Design
     Based on U.S. recent legislative proposals



                             Broad Scope
             Effective       of Coverage
                                               International
            Oversight by                        Linkage of
            EPA & CFTC                            Trading
                                                 Schemes



  Third-Party
  Verification                                             Adequate
       of                                                 Banking of
  Emissions                   Carbon                      Allowances
     Data                     Market
                           Fundamentals

      Short
   Compliance                                           Fair and
     Periods /                                          Efficient
    Long-term                                          Allowance
     Program                                           Allocation
    Timetable         Market-
                      Friendly
                        Cost         High Quality
                    Containment        Offsets
                     Provisions

                                                                       36
Current U.S. Legislative Landscape

         SENATE                         HOUSE                   ADMINISTRATION
 • Feinstein                    • Energy & Commerce            • EPA
   • FERC Oversight               (Waxman)                       • Threatens to use CAA
   • Limited allowance of         • Asserts that committee         authorities to regulate
     OTC trading                    will have bill by              carbon
 • McCain-Lieberman                 Memorial day                 • Administrator calling for
   • Strategic reserve to         • Will give oversight to         economy-wide cap &
     address price concerns         FERC                           trade
   • Large scale/upstream       • Agriculture (Peterson)       • White House
     focus                        • Current derivatives bill     • Call for market-based
 • Environment & Public             gives CFTC authority for       cap
   Works (Boxer)                    carbon allowances and        • 2010 Budget assumes
   • Large scale                    offsets and effectively        100% auction revenue
                                    requires that they trade   • USDA Eco-Services
   • Will “punt” on regulator       on exchange
 • Agriculture                                                   • Role in Ag & forestry
                                                                   offsets
   • Role for farmers/USDA
   • Could push for separate
     Ag standards or carve
     outs



                                                                                               37
Career Opportunities in
Financial Services
Various Opportunities in Financial Services
based on Current Trends
• Trading and Technology
   Industry continues to be driven by technology
   Chicago is a key to these developments given its rich history of risk takers resulting in a vibrant
    algorithmic trading community
   Technology is over 50% of the Exchange staff at CME Group

• Clearing, Risk Management, Audits, Investigations
   Increased focused on regulation, market oversight, and integrity so many opportunities for
    positions which support these risk management functions within the financial services industry
   Good background to learn about the industry without direct industry experience

• Regulators – CFTC, SEC, NFA, FNRA
   More funding expected for these regulatory agencies will lead to openings




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