canadian economy by JahanZeb2

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									                                                                                    CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
                                                                                                                     January 13, 2011
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      Price Target Revisions
  !   DragonWave Inc.                 Summary        FQ3/11 Results Inline, But FQ4 Outlook Far Below Expectations; Reducing Target

      First Glance Notes
  !   Astral Media Inc.               Summary        Q1/11 Results Broadly in Line with Expectations

  !   The Forzani Group Ltd.          Summary        Holiday Update: Q4 Sales Tracking Ahead of Forecast

      Industry Comments
  !   Canadian Bank CEO Conference    Summary        Eight banks participated in our 2011 conference
      Highlights
  !   Chemicals & Fertilizers         Summary        Chinese Potash Contract Settled at $400/tonne with Six-Month Term

  !   Retail REITs And REOCs          Summary        Target Comes To Canada Via Deal With Zellers

      In-Depth Reports
  !   Energy Infrastructure           Summary        Weekly Stats

  !   Platinum Group Metals Outlook   Summary        Good Enough Demand – Bad Enough Supply


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                                                            Priced as of prior day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).
                                                          For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 7.


jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                                                               CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
    Price Target Revisions
    Steve Arthur, CFA (Analyst)                                                                    DragonWave Inc. (NASDAQ: DRWI; 8.66; TSX: DWI)
    (416) 842-7844; steve.arthur@rbccm.com
    Albert Maierovits (Associate)                                                                  Rating:         Sector Perform
    (416) 842-5338; albert.maierovits@rbccm.com                                                    Risk Qualifier: Speculative Risk
                                                                                                   Price Target: 6.50 w 7.50
                                                                                                   FQ3/11 Results Inline, But FQ4 Outlook Far Below Expectations; Reducing Target
           125 WEEKS                                     29AUG08 - 12JAN11
    400.00     Rel. S&P 500                                                  HI-15JAN10 421.78     FQ3/11 Results Were Inline…: Revenue of $27MM, inline with our forecast and
                                                                                      1173.08%
                                                                             LO/HI DIFF
    240.00
    160.00
                                                                                                   guidance. GAAP EPS of $0.00, compared to our $0.01 forecast and consensus ($0.01).
                                                                             CLOSE        238.84
     80.00                                                                                         Notably, 52% of revenue ($14MM) was from Clearwire in the quarter.
                                                                             LO-19DEC08 33.13
                2008            2009                    2010
             AS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
                                                                             HI-22JAN10 14.10
                                                                                                   … But FQ4/11 Revenue Guidance Far Below Expectations: DragonWave expects
    14.00
    10.00
                                                                                      1724.06%
                                                                             LO/HI DIFF
                                                                                                   FQ4/11 revenue of ~$15MM, well below our prior forecast of $27MM. Clearwire is
     8.00
     6.00
                                                                                                   expected to only contribute ~$1.5MM.
      4.00
                                                                             CLOSE          8.66
                                                                                                   Expect Shares Down Sharply; Look For Opportunities When The Dust Settles: We
      2.00                                                                                         highlight a number of fundamental points – strong global growth for mobile data,
                                                                                                   microwave backhaul as a key element of many upcoming network builds, and a strong
                                                                             LO-02JAN09     0.77
     9000
     7500
                                                                                                   technology portfolio that should enable the company to participate meaningfully. The
     6000
     4500                                                                    PEAK VOL. 9882.1      difficulty, of course, is in predicting the timing and magnitude of such wins.
     3000                                                                    VOLUME    1987.4
     1500
                                                                                                   Target declines from US$7.50 to US$6.50. With meaningful profitability pushed out
                                                                                                   beyond F2012E, we base our target on DCF calculations.
         Revenue (MM)
    2009A          40
    2010A         158
    2011E         118↓                          130
    2012E          91↓                          129
    All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

    First Glance Notes
    Drew McReynolds, CA, CFA (Analyst)                                                             Astral Media Inc. (TSX: ACM.A; 41.39)
    (416) 842-3805; drew.mcreynolds@rbccm.com
    Haran Posner (Associate)                                                                       Rating:         Outperform
    (416) 842 7832; haran.posner@rbccm.com                                                         Risk Qualifier: Average Risk
                                                                                                   Q1/11 Results Broadly in Line with Expectations
                                                                                                   • Q1/11 results broadly in line - Q1/11 revenues and EBITDA were $267MM
             125 WEEKS                                   29AUG08 - 12JAN11
    140.00       Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX                                HI-24APR09 140.70
                                                                             LO/HI DIFF 40.86%
                                                                                                     and $89MM, respectively, versus our estimates of $273MM and $93MM
    130.00
    120.00                                                                   CLOSE        127.40     (consensus EBITDA was $93MM). The minor negative variance to our
    110.00
                                                                             LO-05SEP08 99.89
                                                                                                     estimates was mainly due to weaker radio results with revenues and EBITDA
    100.00
                2008            2009                    2010
             AS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
                                                                             HI-10DEC10 42.80
                                                                                                     of $92MM and $30MM, respectively, versus our estimates of $95MM and
                                                                             LO/HI DIFF 120.50%
    40.00                                                                                            $32MM. Television results were slightly better than expected due to higher
    35.00
                                                                                                     margins while outdoor results were in-line.
    30.00                                                                    CLOSE         41.39
                                                                                                   • What to look for on the 10:30am conference call (dial-in #:
    25.00
                                                                                                     1-800-731-5319) - (i) the extent to which the strength in specialty advertising is
    20.00                                                                    LO-19DEC08 19.41
                                                                                                     sustainable moving through F2011; (ii) overall trends in underlying operating
     2500
     2000
                                                                                                     expenses for television and radio; and (iii) the impact of recent strategic
     1500
     1000
                                                                             PEAK VOL. 2993.3
                                                                             VOLUME     408.4        initiatives, such as Playhouse Disney carriage and the national digital outdoor
      500
                                                                                                     network.

    All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.




                                                                                                                                                                                          2
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                                                                 CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
    Tal Woolley, CFA (Analyst)                                                                     The Forzani Group Ltd. (TSX: FGL; 19.02)
    (416) 842 7857; tal.woolley@rbccm.com
    Valerie Blume, CFA (Associate)                                                                 Rating:         Outperform
    (416) 842-7880; valerie.blume@rbccm.com                                                        Risk Qualifier: Above Average Risk
                                                                                                   Holiday Update: Q4 Sales Tracking Ahead of Forecast
                                                                                                   Corporate comps continue to track well ahead of forecast. For the first 10 weeks of Q4
             125 WEEKS                                   29AUG08 - 12JAN11
                 Rel. S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX                                HI-11JUN10 144.93     (November through the first week of January), corporate comps were up +9.4% versus
    135.00                                                                   LO/HI DIFF 91.63%
    120.00
                                                                             CLOSE        139.00
                                                                                                   -3.6% last year and our forecast of +3.0% forecast for the quarter; franchise comps were
    105.00
     90.00                                                                                         up +2.7% (versus -1.1% last year) and in line with our +3.5% forecast. Corporate comps
                2008            2009                    2010
             AS O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
                                                                             LO-02JAN09 75.63
                                                                                                   are the real driver of profitability at FGL.
                                                                             HI-07JAN11 19.47
                                                                             LO/HI DIFF 196.80%
    18.00                                                                                          No mention of margin performance; this may have more to do with accounting
    16.00
    14.00
                                                                                                   intricacies than anything else. After incorporating the approximate -130 bp drag created
    12.00                                                                    CLOSE         19.02   by the inclusion of incremental DC costs in COGS vs. SG&A, we are forecasting a +25 bp
    10.00                                                                                          rise in gross margins over last year's yet-to-be-restated results. Our Q4 EPS estimate is
      8.00                                                                                         $0.88, in line with consensus estimates.
                                                                             LO-26DEC08     6.56

      900
                                                                                                   We will review our forecast prior to FGL reporting Q4 results on April 5.
      600                                                                    PEAK VOL. 1211.5
                                                                             VOLUME     135.1
      300




    All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.

    Industry Comments
    Andre-Philippe Hardy, CFA (Analyst)                                                            Canadian Bank CEO Conference Highlights
    (416) 842-4124; ap.hardy@rbccm.com
                                                                                                   Eight banks participated in our 2011 conference
    Dave Mun, CFA (Analyst)
    (416) 842-5638; dave.mun@rbccm.com                                                             • Clarity on regulatory capital rules has improved - The banks shared our view
                                                                                                       that the combination of internal capital generation and greater clarity on
    Jordan Hartkorn (Associate)
    (416) 842-7804; jordan.hartkorn@rbccm.com
                                                                                                       regulatory capital rules position the Canadian banks better than in recent years
                                                                                                       to consider dividend increases and capital deployment.
    All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.                                                      •   Bank CEOs expect loan growth to slow but remain positive
                                                                                                   •   Messaging on net interest income margins is for a flat to down environment
                                                                                                   •   Bank CEOs appeared positive on outlook for non-interest income growth
                                                                                                   •   Operating leverage to remain positive (albeit not as strong as in recent years)
                                                                                                   •   The peak of credit problems has passed

    Fai Lee, CGA, CFA (Analyst)                                                                    Chemicals & Fertilizers
    (604) 257-7662; fai.lee@rbccm.com
                                                                                                   Chinese Potash Contract Settled at $400/tonne with Six-Month Term
    Hamir Patel (Associate)
    (604) 257-7145; hamir.patel@rbccm.com                                                          • Contract In Line With Market Expectations. Belarusian Potash Company
                                                                                                       (BPC) has reached a contract settlement with Chinese fertilizer importers
    All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
                                                                                                       Sinochem and CNAMPGC for 600 thousand tonnes of volumes (including 120
                                                                                                       thousand tonnes of optional volumes) at a price of US$400/tonne CFR for a
                                                                                                       six-month term. Last year, BPC had signed an annual contract for 1.2 million
                                                                                                       tonnes (including 200 thousand optional tonnes) at a price of $350/tonne CFR.
                                                                                                   • Potential for Further Price Increase Later This Year. We continue to
                                                                                                       believe the early settlement of the Chinese potash contract is directionally
                                                                                                       positive as it sets the table for a tighter global potash market in 2011 and the
                                                                                                       six-month contract term leaves the door open for a potential price increase in
                                                                                                       mid-2011.

    Neil Downey, CA, CFA (Analyst)                                                                 Retail REITs And REOCs
    (416) 842-7835; neil.downey@rbccm.com
                                                                                                   Target Comes To Canada Via Deal With Zellers
    Tyler Bos (Associate)
    (416) 842-4123; tyler.bos@rbccm.com                                                            • Target comes to Canada – After years of anticipation, HBC confirmed this
                                                                                                       morning that it was selling 220 Zellers-bannered leasehold interests to Target
    Michael Markidis, CFA (Analyst)
    (416) 842-7897; michael.markidis@rbccm.com
                                                                                                       Corp for $1.825B. Stores will continue to be operated as Zellers for a period of
                                                                                                       time, and Target plans to open 100-150 Target bannered stores in 2013/14
    Michael O'Keefe (Associate)




                                                                                                                                                                                          3
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                             CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
    416-842-8720; michael.okeefe@rbccm.com           • Impact on retail landlords likely to be property specific – For shopping
                                                       centres anchored by a store which is re-branded to Target from Zellers, the
    All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.          long-term impact should be a net positive due to anticipated increased
                                                       customer traffic and the cross-shop impact on CRU tenant sales.
                                                     • Neutral near-term impact to landlords – We estimate the major landlords
                                                       have exposure to 124 HBC locations
                                                     • Summary of REIT/REOC HBC store/other counts below are contained in
                                                       Exhibit 1 on page 2


    In-Depth Reports
    Robert Kwan, CFA (Analyst)                       Energy Infrastructure
    (604) 257-7611; robert.kwan@rbccm.com
                                                     Weekly Stats
    Nelson Ng, CFA (Analyst)
    (604) 257-7617; nelson.ng@rbccm.com              • Valuation tables, power price and frac spread data, relative price performance
                                                       and ex-dividend dates.
    Danny Hung, CA (Associate)
    (604) 257-7064; danny.hung@rbccm.com



    Leon Esterhuizen (Analyst)                       Platinum Group Metals Outlook
    (+44) 207 653-4154; leon.esterhuizen@rbccm.com
                                                     Good Enough Demand – Bad Enough Supply
    Ben McEwen (Associate)
    +44-207-002-2100; ben.mcewen@rbccm.com           We believe the platinum group metals (PGM) market is lining up for an exceptional three
                                                     years as far as potential for higher metal prices are concerned.




                                                                                                                                           4
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
                                                                                                           UPCOMING EVENTS
                                                                                                                  Jan 13-Jan 19, 2011
    MARKETING / CONFERENCES / EVENTS
                Thursday   Friday                                    Monday               Tuesday                   Wednesday
                January 13 January 14                                January 17           January 18                January 19
    Toronto
                       s Torstar Corporation   s Communications &    s Mark Friesen        s Consumer
                       s EXFO Inc              Media                                       s Healthcare
                       s Energy                s Brian Jackson                             s Glenn Novarro
                       s Michael Harvey &      s Michael Harvey &                          s Michael Yee
                       Fergal Kelly            Fergal Kelly                                s Shibani Malhotra
                       s Gerard Cassidy        s Medoro Resources                          s Irene Nattel
                       s Jon Atkin             Ltd.                                        s Mark Friesen
                       s Jacques Rousseau      s David Bank/Ryan                           s Mining & Materials
                       s Rob Sluymer           Vineyard
                       s Geoffrey Kwan
                       s Ray Hanson
                       s Kurt Hallead/Victor
                       Marchon
                       s Scott Hanold
                       s Nathan Piper
                       s Mark Friesen
                       s Robert Kwan
    Montreal
                       s New Year Preview                            s New Year Preview    s New Year Preview
                       CMT                                           Mining                Industrial
                       s Mike Abramsky                               s Stephen Walker      s Walter Spracklin
                       s Amit Daryanani                              s Fraser Phillips     s Sara O'Brien
                       s Drew McReynolds                                                   s Steve Arthur
                                                                                           s Rama Bondada
    Western Canada
                                                                     s Myles Zyblock & Ray s Myles Zyblock & Ray
                                                                     Hanson                Hanson
                                                                                           s Drew McReynolds
    New York/Mid-Atlantic
                       s Rob Stallard and      s Rob Stallard and                          s Celtic Exploration      s Amit Daryanani
                       Rama Bondada            Rama Bondada                                Ltd.
                                                                                           s Amit Daryanani
                                                                                           s Jason Gere
                                                                                           s Champion Minerals
                                                                                           Inc.
                                                                                           s Jacques Rousseau
    Boston
                       s Jason Gere            s Champion Minerals                         s John Barnes             s John Barnes
                       s Medoro Resources      Inc                                         *Canceled                 *Canceled
                       Ltd.
    U.S. Mid West/West Coast/South East/South West
                       s Warren Resources      s Rich Moore & Mike                         s Shibani Malhotra        s Shibani Malhotra
                       s Rich Moore & Mike     Salinsky                                    s Bill Bonello
                       Salinsky                s Mahesh Sanganeria
                       s Jon Atkin & David
                       Coleman
                       s Mahesh Sanganeria




                                                                                                                                          5
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                              CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
    Europe
                             s Pan American Silver    s Pan American Silver    s Jonathan Guy           s Parkmead Group plc s Tim Huff & Des
                             Corp                     Corp                     s Andre-Philippe Hardy   s Resolution           Kilalea
                             s Jonathan Guy           s Jonathan Guy           s Windfarm               s Andre-Philippe Hardy
                             s Tim Huff & Des         s Tim Huff & Des         s Tim Huff & Des         s Tim Huff & Des
                             Kilalea                  Kilalea                  Kilalea                  Kilalea
                             s Des Kilalea            s Des Kilalea
                             s Tim Huff               s Tim Huff
    Australia/Asia
                                                      s Rialto

    Please contact your Sales Representative for additional information on the events listed above.




                                                                                                                                                6
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                     CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE

    Required Disclosures
    Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure
    Nelson Ng, Danny Hung, Tyler Bos, Michael Markidis, Michael O'Keefe, Andre-Philippe Hardy, Dave Mun, Jordan Hartkorn, Hamir
    Patel, Leon Esterhuizen, Ben McEwen, Albert Maierovits, Haran Posner, Tal Woolley and Valerie Blume (i) are not
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                                           Distribution of Ratings
                                     RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
                                                                               Investment Banking
                                                                                Serv./Past 12 Mos.
      Rating                                Count            Percent                Count         Percent

      BUY[TP/O]                                673              50.60                  194           28.83
      HOLD[SP]                                 598              45.00                  129           21.57
      SELL[U]                                   58               4.40                    9           15.52


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                                                                                                                                            7
jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                                                               CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
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jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY
    January 13, 2011                                                                   CANADIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE
                                              Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2011
                                                        All rights reserved




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jasbir.singh@thomsonreuters.com Jasbir Kehal 01/14/11 03:17:44 PM Reuters - Knowledge Sales Specialists Employee ID's ONLY

								
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