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CanadaWater C A Tool for Modeling Canadian Water Resources anemi

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CanadaWater C A Tool for Modeling Canadian Water Resources anemi Powered By Docstoc
					Systems Approach for Policy
Development

                   Slobodan P. Simonovic
             The University of Western Ontario
  The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Outline

 History and introduction
 Systems approach
 An example
   integrated global modeling of the society-
   biosphere-climate system
 Lessons learned


                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   2
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




History and introduction




                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   3
     CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Science policy dialogue
   Purpose
     Policy for science vs. science for policy
     (H. Brook)
     Not to speak truth to power but strive
     for ‘serviceable truth’

   Variety of formats
     Enhance public confidence by
     increasing communication
     Inherent uncertainty
     Corporate vs. consensus-based models



                     Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   4
          CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Science policy dialogue
Science                                 Policy
  Probability accepted                      Certainty desired
  Inequality is a fact                      Equality desired
  Anticipatory                              Time ends at next election
  Flexibility                               Rigidity
  Problem oriented                          Service oriented
  Discovery oriented                        Mission oriented
  Failure and risk accepted                 Failure and risk intolerable
  Innovation prized                         Innovation suspect

                                                            Crerar, 1988



                          Slobodan P. Simonovic     June 2010              5
       CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Science policy dialogue - Arctic
  Climate change - the most widely discussed
  and debated policy issue in modern times.
  The potential implications are bigger, and
  potentially more catastrophic.
  Issues – rapid ice melt, permafrost melt,
  methane release,…




                       Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   6
               CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Science policy dialogue - Canada
   In Canada, the federal, provincial and territorial governments all have a strong
   interest in climate change and in various proposals for taking action on the
   issue.
   At the federal level, the government and opposition parties have diverse
   perspectives on climate change.
   The positions of different provincial governments also vary tremendously.
   Other major players with well-developed positions and a strong interest in
   policies and management strategies for climate protection include:
        environmental public interest organizations,
        academic and scientific institutions,
        industry and business associations,
        labour and religious organizations,
        media,
        health and consumer groups,
        municipal governments and
        many individual corporations.

                                Slobodan P. Simonovic       June 2010                 7
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach




                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   8
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy
 Seeking to solve a problem we often make it
 worse.
 Every time we push at one point, it causes
 unexpected change elsewhere.
 Our decisions provoke reactions seeking to
 restore the balance.
 Counterintuitive system behaviour.
 Consequence: policy resistance, intervention
 delays, and defeat.
                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   9
       CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy
 Causes of policy resistance
   Interpretation of experience as a series of events
   Existence of feedbacks – systems reactions to
   imposed solutions
   Real world complexity exceeding our cognitive
   capacity
   Existence of delays




                       Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   10
         CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




 Systems approach for policy
Need for a new approach - the systems
approach
  Representation of system structure
  Capturing feedbacks and delays
  Addressing nonlinearities
  System behavior is a consequence of system
  structure, feedbacks and delays
  Simulation more significant than other systems
  tools
                         Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   11
       CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy
 The systems approach establishes the proper order
 of inquiry and helps in the selection of the best
 course of action that will accomplish a prescribed
 goal:
   by broadening the information base of the policy-
   maker;
   by providing a better understanding of the system, and
   the interrelatedness of its components; and
   by facilitating the prediction of the consequences of
   several alternative courses of action.


                       Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010    12
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy
 System dynamics simulation
   A rigorous method of system description,
   which facilitates feedback analysis usually
   via a simulation model of the effects of
   alternative system structure and control
   policies on system behavior.




                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   13
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy




      d
         S (t ) = u (t ) − q(t )
      dt

                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   14
             CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Systems approach for policy
 Feedback Processes:
     Two kinds only                                   200,000


                                                      150,000
                                                                                                   money




             Positive = reinforcing                   100,000

                                                       50,000


                                                                0
                                                                        0       10   20       30   40       50      60   70    80    90    100
                                                                                                        Time (Year)

                                                                                                         State
                                                            100




             Negative = balancing
                                                                75


                                                                50


                                                                25




     But they combine …
                                                                    0
                                                                            0    5   10       15   20     25      30     35   40    45    50
                                                                                                     Time (Second)




         1

                                                                                          1
     1
                          1   1                1
                                                                                                                   1
 1                                                     1




                              Slobodan P. Simonovic                             June 2010                                                        15
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




An example




                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   16
     CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Project
 An Integrated System Dynamics Model
 for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-
 Economic-Climatic System
 NSERC Strategic Research Grant
 2008 - 2010




                     Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   17
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Research goals

 Examine how climate change affects
 long-term sustainability
 Provide a tool to policy-makers
 Stress the importance of feedbacks




                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   18
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Research team
 Science - Expertise
   Systems modelling – engineering
   Climate Policy
   Economics
 Policy - Collaborators
   Environment Canada
   Natural Resources Canada
   Department of Finance
   Department of Fisheries and Oceans

                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   19
                                          CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




                ANEMI model
                                                           +
                          Land Use                     Carbon                   Atmospheric
                          Emissions
                                                                   +               CO2            Number of Model
      + Land Use
                          +                      −                 Industrial
                                                                                                  Elements:
                                 Economy
                                                                   emission                          740 variables
 Clearing
                                                     Temperature
                                                                                                     230 Stocks (many in
   and                                                                                               arrays)
                                                                                              +
 Burning
                                                Energy Demand                                        2300 total
               Consumption                                                           Climate
                                                                                                  600 equations
                                                   Intensity
               and Labour
                             GDP
                                                               +
                                                                   Energy
                              per
                             capita          Water use Intensity
                                                                                                     99 major equations
                      −                +                                                          Thousands of feedbacks
                             +                        Wastewater
Population
                                                       Reuse                                         Population: 4468 loops
                      Water Demand
  +                                                                Water Quality                     Water stress: 2756 loops
                  +                                   Wastewater
                             +                        Treatment
                                                                       −                             Economic output: 203
                                      Surface Water
                                       Availability                                                  loops
                    Water
      Water      Consumption                                Wastewater            Temperature        Industrial emissions: 47
      Stress                                               Treatment and                             loops
                                                               Reuse
                                      −                +
                                          Surface Flow
                                                               +
                                                                       Slobodan P. Simonovic          June 2010                 20
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Model use – policy support
 A policy is a prescription of alternative
 parameter values from the ‘business-as-
 usual’ case

 Policy changes represent scenarios
   Alternative simulations allow scenario analysis




                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   23
       CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Model use – policy support
 Simulation Set-up
   Set parameter values
        Oceanic parameters: w = m/yr, = 2 m /yr
   Change one or=more κin1890 runs…
        Climate sensitivity 4 W/m        2
                                                            2

          Atmosphere-Ocean mixing time = 1.5 yr
      Regular run called “Base Case”
          CO2 fertilization (β) = 0.5
          NPP partition, P[j][k] = 6 x 4 matrix
      Alternative is the “Policy” matrix
          Biomass residence time, τ(B ) = 6 x 4
                                             jk
                                                        Climate sensitivity = 4 W/m2
          Depreciation, δ(t) = 10%/yr             Oceanic parameters: w = m/yr, κ = 1890 m2/yr
          Savings rate = prescribed annual values Atmosphere-Ocean mixing time = 1.5 yr
                                                  CO2 fertilization (β) = 0.5
          Precipitation multiplier = 3.4%/ºC      NPP partition, P[j][k] = 6 x 4 matrix

 Example: Carbon Tax
          Stable runoff percentage = 37%          Biomass residence time, τ(Bjk) = 6 x 4 matrix
                                                  Depreciation, δ(t) = 10%/yr
          Annual irrigation expansion rate = prescribed
                                                  Case Selector = 0,1
                                                  , γ d, γ i
          Water Demand terms, DSWImin, ISWIminSavings rate = prescribed annual values
   Change one parameter
          And so on…                              Precipitation multiplier = 3.4%/ºC
                                                        Stable runoff percentage = 37%
                                                        Annual irrigation expansion rate = prescribed
                                                        Water Demand terms, DSWImin, ISWImin, γd, γi
                                                        And so on…
                                                                        Effect
                           Slobodan P. Simonovic                   June 2010                            24
        CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Model use – policy support
Biophysical results: Temperature 2100
       Results: GDP and Emissions
Direct Base Scenario vs. Optimal Tax inand CO2

      Abatement Cost                            = $150 B
      Environmental Benefit                     = $82 B
      Total Economic Cost                       = $68 B

      Averted Temperature Change:               0.14°C




                        Slobodan P. Simonovic       June 2010   25
       CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Model use – policy support
 Also assess effects of policies related to
   Water treatment levels
   Land-use change
   Wastewater reuse
   Biophysical uncertainties
   Energy subsidies and other investment
   strategies
   …

                       Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   26
    CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Lessons learned




                    Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   27
     CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Lessons learned
 Policy – science workshops
   Workshop 1 – identification of issues
   Workshop 2 – model demonstration
   Workshop 3 – discussion of model outputs




                     Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   28
      CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Lessons learned
 Direct interaction - transformation of
 issues into model scenarios:
     Carbon pricing
     Economic growth rate
     Water pricing
     North American water stress
     Irrigation
     Energy subsidies and pricing
     Land use changes

                      Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   29
     CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Lessons learned
Dialogue initiated by science
Policy input used for guiding scientific
work
  Addressing right questions
  Determining research boundaries
  Providing relevant information
Positive experience
Project as a dialogue
                     Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   30
     CMOS-CGU 2010 - Ottawa




Resources


  Download from
   www.slobodansimonovic.com
   >research >FIDS >project name




                     Slobodan P. Simonovic   June 2010   31

				
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