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					All Hands On Deck
Preparing For The 2010 Decennial
Census
Steve Barker
Program Manager
State Data Center
       2010 Census Update

     The Big Job Ahead
        Perspective
    Geographic Programs
      Census Outreach
Um, About Those Handhelds…
          Timeline
                                The Big Job Ahead
Between now and April 1, 2010 Census Bureau has to

•   Promote Decennial Census and American Community Survey
•   Ramp up ACS to replace Census long form in 2010
•   Verify 130 million addresses

•   Launch language assistance programs
•   Prepare for 40 million non-respondents
•   Update geographic boundaries

•   Acquire space for local Census offices
•   Process 3 million applicants for 750,000 temporary Census positions
•   Build local partnerships

•   Restore confidence and trust
•   Ensure every person is counted once
                                            Perspective - National
How well did the Census Bureau do in
  the past?                                                                  80%

• 2000 Census called “the most accurate                                      75%
  census” in US history*
                                                                             70%
• Mail response rates reversed a downward
  trend                                                                      65%
• Decennial budget had a surplus of $305
  million at end of FY2000**                                                 60%

                                                                             55%        1970   1980   1990   2000
* US Department of Commerce Secretary Donald Evans                    US Overall Mail   78%    75%    65%    67%
     http://www.commerce.gov/opa/press/Secretary_Evans/2001_Releases/ Response Rate
     March_06_Census.htm
** US Census Bureau Press Release CB00-CN.58
     http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2000/cb00cn58.html
                                     Perspective - Oklahoma
How did Oklahoma do?

• Statewide
      – 64% response rate in 2000
      – 63% response rate in 1990

• Counties
      –   10 met or exceeded national response rate
      –   26 met or exceeded 1990 response rate
      –   37 had response rates fall from 1990
      –   14 OK counties enumerated by hand delivery/in person interview,
          thus no 1990 response rate available
Sources: Census 2000 Final Response Rates as accessed at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/response/2000response.html
    on July 14, 2008 and Census 1990 Final Response Rates as accessed at
    http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/response/disp-mro.40 on July 14, 2008
                                     Perspective - Oklahoma
How did Oklahoma do?

• Cities and towns
      – 119 met or exceeded national response rate
      – 282 met or exceeded 1990 response rates
      – 308 had response rates fall from 1990


• Overall?
      – Oklahoma improved between 1990 and 2000, but remained slightly
        behind the national average
Sources: Census 2000 Final Response Rates as accessed at http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/response/2000response.html
    on July 14, 2008 and Census 1990 Final Response Rates as accessed at
    http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/response/disp-mro.40 on July 14, 2008
                                    Perspective – Financial

What do we get from an accurate Census?

• A wealth of information used by businesses, governments,
  nonprofits, and individuals for a variety of purposes
• An allocation guide for several governmental programs

Some Of The Programs Receiving Federal Formula Funds
   – Medical Assistance Programs
   – Highway Planning and Construction
   – Indian Housing Block Grants
   – National School Lunch Program
   – Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants, and Children
   – Community Development Block Grants
Source: US Census Bureau, Federal Assistance Award Data System
    http://www.census.gov/govs/www/faads.html
                                                                   Perspective – Financial

                 Federal Formula Funds In Oklahoma
           $6                                                                          1.300%

           $5                                                                          1.250%
                                                                                       1.200%
           $4
Millions




                                                                                       1.150%
           $3
                                                                                       1.100%
           $2
                                                                                       1.050%
           $1                                                                          1.000%
           $0                                                                          0.950%




                                                                                                1998

                                                                                                       1999

                                                                                                              2000

                                                                                                                     2001

                                                                                                                            2002

                                                                                                                                   2003

                                                                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                                                                 2005

                                                                                                                                                        2006

                                                                                                                                                               2007
                1998

                       1999

                               2000

                                      2001

                                             2002

                                                    2003

                                                           2004

                                                                  2005

                                                                         2006

                                                                                2007




                                Formula Dollars                                                           Percent of US Total
                              Received in Oklahoma                                                        Going to Oklahoma


   Source: US Census Bureau, Federal Assistance Award Data System
       http://www.census.gov/govs/www/faads.html
                           Perspective – Financial

    What does that mean in personal terms?




                        In Oklahoma
2007 Federal Formula Funds (in thousands)*                 $5,034,889
2007 Population Estimate (July 1, 2007)**                   3,617,316
Resulting Oklahoma FFF Per Capita                           $1,392
* US Census Bureau, Federal Assistance Award Data System
     http://www.census.gov/govs/www/faads.html
 ** US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
     http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
                           Perspective - Financial
What difference does $1,392 make?

• $1,392 per year buys a personal computer and software to help a non-
  profit

• $116 per month allows one person access to personal health care
  insurance

• $7.95 per school day (assuming 175 days) helps 4 children have free
  school lunches

• $5.35 per week day lets 2 people have round trip travel to and from work
  based on Metro Tulsa Transit Authority fares

• $3.81 per calendar day lets one person enjoy a regular, daily visit from
  Meals on Wheels
                                 Perspective – Financial
                        Table P39. Population Substituted
        Census 2000 Summary File 1 – 100% Data; Universe: OK Total Population
Total                                                                            3,450,654
Not Substituted                                                                  3,426,312
 Substituted                                                                       24,342
 Noninterview                                                                      24,342
  Coverage Improvement Adjustment                                                       0


                  Table P40. Imputation of Population Items
 Census 2000 Summary File 1 – 100% Data; Universe: OK Population Not Substituted
Total                                                                            3,426,312
 No items allocated                                                              3,149,428
 One or more items allocated                                                      276,884

  To read the Census Bureau’s detailed accounting of the accuracy of the data:
  http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/doc/sf1chap8.pdf
             Perspective - Environmental
What has happened since the last Census?

• Conflict permeates the political environment
   – Life in a post-9/11 world
   – Immigration and other divisive topics
   – Economic uncertainty

• Traditional media outlets have become diluted
   – Market decline of network television
   – Expansion of niche cable channels
   – Exploding popularity of internet
            Perspective - Environmental
What else has happened since the last Census?

• Personal privacy concerns are up
   – Phishing scams
   – Identity theft
   – Accidental leaks from government and business

• Use of two forms risks “census confusion”
   – 2010 Census is short form only
   – American Community Survey replaces the long form
   – Some respondents will get the 2010 Census and ACS
So what’s at stake?
Geographic Programs
                           Geographic Programs

BAS – Boundary Annexation Survey
    – http://www.census.gov/geo/www/bas/bashome.html

• Voluntary annual survey
• Relevant to nearly all Bureau programs
• Keeps up with governmental annexations and deannexations
• Invitations sent to
   – Federally recognized American Indian areas
   – Counties
   – Incorporated municipalities
   – Minor civil divisions
• All responses received by May 31st will be incorporated in next
  year’s survey materials
                            Geographic Programs

LUCA – Local Update of Census Addresses
     – http://www.census.gov/geo/www/luca2010/luca.html

•   Voluntary program
•   Primarily related to Decennial Census and ACS
•   Indirectly impacts many other Bureau activities
•   Primary source of local input for Census Master Address File
•   Invitations sent to all active, functioning governments
•   Census still processing responses from across the country
•   Report on response rates not available until later this year
                              Geographic Programs
PSAP – Participant Statistical Areas Program
     – http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psap2010_main.html

•   Voluntary survey
•   Primarily related to Decennial Census and ACS
•   Indirectly impacts many other Bureau activities
•   Gathers local input for boundaries of
     – County based census tracts
     – Block groups
     – Census Designated Places
     – Census County Divisions
•   Invitations will be sent to local governments and organizations
•   Tribes encouraged to participate in both TSAP and PSAP
•   Qualifying criteria available at
    http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psapcriteria.html
•   Contact Kansas City Regional Office NOW to participate
                            Geographic Programs

RP – Redistricting Program
    – http://www.census.gov/rdo/

• Voluntary program
• Primarily related to Decennial Census and ACS
• Impacts many other Bureau activities
• Currently in Phase 2 of 5 phase cycle
• Involves collection of voting district boundaries, updates to
  legislative districts, and block boundary suggestions
• Invitations sent to state liaisons, state legislative leadership, and
  state governors
• By law, redistricting results must be delivered to participating states
  no later than April 1, 2011
                           Geographic Programs

SDRP – School District Review Program
    – http://www.census.gov/geo/www/schdist/sch_dist.html

• New, voluntary program initiated every two years
• Primarily related to Decennial Census and ACS
• Impacts many other Bureau activities
• Allows state officials to review and update school district boundaries
• Invitations sent to Title 1 coordinators through the National Center
  for Education Statistics (NCES)
• Currently updating boundaries to reflect 2007-2008 school districts
  as they exist on July 1, 2008.
                             Geographic Programs
TSAP – Tribal Statistical Areas Program
     – http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tsap2010/tsap2010.html

•   Voluntary survey
•   Primarily related to Decennial Census and ACS
•   Indirectly impacts many other Bureau activities
•   Allows federally recognized tribes to offer input on boundaries for
     – Census Designated Places
     – Census Tracts
     – Census Block Groups
     – Census Blocks
•   OTSA boundaries remain unchanged for historic reasons
•   Invitations will soon be sent to all federally recognized tribes
•   Tribes encouraged to participate in both TSAP and PSAP
•   Contact Kansas City Regional Office NOW to participate
Census Outreach
         Census Outreach

 Target Marketing

   Partnerships

Language Assistance

Recruitment Efforts
        Census Outreach




Target Marketing
                                           Target Marketing
The Census Bureau’s 2010 planning database
   – Is based on actual behavior
   – Examines Census 2000 mail return rates at the tract level
   – Includes analysis of 12 “hard-to-count” scores


                 “Hard to Count” Criteria Per Census Bureau
   Vacant homes        Non-single family   Renter occupied    Crowded areas/high
                         residences          households            density
   Non-spousal            No phone         Households below    Receiving public
   households                                  poverty           assistance
   Unemployed            Low income        Sorry, we moved!    Less than a high
                                                               school education
                                         Target Marketing
The 2010 planning database and the “eight key clusters”

Cluster                               Mail Return Rate       % HUs
•   All around average I                      77.3%           35%
•   All around average II                     74.2%           16%
•   Econ. disadvantaged I                     66.5%            6%
•   Econ. disadvantaged II                    58.0%            3%
•   Ethnic enclave I                          69.8%            3%
•   Ethnic enclave II                         63.6%            2%
•   Single/unattached/mobiles                 67.1%            8%
•   Advantaged homeowners                     83.2%           26%

Average mail return rate is 75%, higher than mail response rate of 67%.

Return rate includes only occupied housing. Response rate includes vacant
   housing units, undeliverable addresses, and some addresses deleted during
   follow-up processing.
                                         Target Marketing

                         All Around Average I
Population               36%
Occupied Housing Units   35%
Hard to Count Score      Low
Mail Response Rate       2nd highest
Racial Mix               Below average mix
                         (9% Black; 7% Hispanic; 2% Asian/NHOPI; 1% AIAN)
Skew                     Towards older population; homeowners; large rural %
Media Usage              Above average TV; all other media moderate to low
Other Comments           Largest cluster; small % increase in response can yield
                         large increase in mail return
                                        Target Marketing

                         All Around Average II
Population               13%
Occupied Housing Units   16%
Hard to Count Score      Average
Mail Response Rate       Average
Racial Mix               Racially more diverse (12% Blacks; 11% Hispanic)
Skew                     Towards younger population; renters; more urban and
                         densely populated
Media Usage              Slightly above average media usage (including Spanish
                         language); strong internet (at work vs. home)
Other Comments           n/a
                                        Target Marketing

                      Economically Disadvantaged I
Population               6%
Occupied Housing Units   6%
Hard to Count Score      High % poverty, public assistance, unemployment, less
                         than high school education
Mail Response Rate       Low
Racial Mix               Largely Black (49%)
Skew                     Towards homeowner (less than ½ rent); urban
Media Usage              Strong cable TV; moderate/low use of other media; very
                         low online
Other Comments           High number of children (29% under 18)
                                          Target Marketing

                      Economically Disadvantaged II
Population                2%
Occupied Housing Units    3%
Hard to Count Score       Highest overall score; highest poverty, public
                          assistance, and unemployment scores
Mail Response Rate        Lowest mail return rate
Racial Mix                54% Black; 21% Hispanic
Skew                      Towards renters; ¾ non-spousal renters in urban multi-
                          units
Media Usage               Among heaviest users of all media types, with exception
                          of online
Other Comments            23% tracts will receive bi-lingual form
                                         Target Marketing

                              Ethnic Enclave I
Population               4%
Occupied Housing Units   3%
Hard to Count Score      Above average crowding, poverty, public assistance,
                         unemployment, and low education
Mail Response Rate       Low
Racial Mix               61% Hispanic; 8% Black; 5% Asian/NHOPI
Skew                     Towards homeowner; less urban and densely populated
Media Usage              Spanish language media dominates; low use of English
                         language media
Other Comments           80% of tracts will receive bi-lingual form; high number of
                         married with children, stable household
                                         Target Marketing

                              Ethnic Enclave II
Population               2%
Occupied Housing Units   2%
Hard to Count Score      High poverty, unemployment, public assistance
Mail Response Rate       Low
Racial Mix               59% Hispanic; 11% Asian/NHOPI; 9% Black; 1% AIAN
Skew                     Towards renters; 75% renters in exclusively urban,
                         crowded multi-unit structures; most densely populated
Media Usage              In-language media dominates; otherwise hard to reach
Other Comments           80% of tracts will get bi-lingual form; 31% of population
                         linguistically isolated; Spanish primary language in 79%
                         of HHs; Asian/NHOPI primary language in 74% of HHs
                                         Target Marketing

                      Single / Unattached / Mobiles
Population               5%
Occupied Housing Units   8%
Hard to Count Score      “Unique” HTC variables; highly mobile single renters in
                         multi-unit urban living quarters; very densely populated
Mail Response Rate
Racial Mix               Racially diverse; 17% Blacks; 7% Asian
Skew                     Towards younger population; renters
Media Usage              Very heavy online usage, Spanish language media
                         shows strong skews; average across other media types
Other Comments           Above average education; in school or just finished; first
                         job; many first time Census participants
                                          Target Marketing

                         Advantaged Homeowners
Population                30%
Occupied Housing Units    26%
Hard to Count Score       Lowest
Mail Response Rate        Highest
Racial Mix                Least racially diverse
Skew                      Stable, married homeowner
Media Usage               High use of media types (TV, radio, print, out of home)
Other Comments            Least densely populated
                                                    Target Marketing
    Race and Ethnicity Population Distribution Among the Clusters
Cluster   Cluster           Non-Hispanic   Black    Hispanic    Asian As    AIAN As    NHOPI As
Number    Name              White As %     As %     As %        %           %          %

    1     All Avg. I                39.9    25.4         19.0        20.8       35.6       29.5
    2     All Avg. II               14.6    13.8         14.0        19.6       14.0       19.6
    3     Econ. Dis. I               3.6    25.3          5.3         2.5       15.0        5.2
    4     Econ. Dis. II              0.8     11.9         5.6         2.3        2.5        2.6
    5     Ethnic Encl. I             1.4      2.8        22.0         5.7       12.2        8.1
    6     Ethnic Encl. II            0.8      2.3        14.8         8.8        3.4        5.9
    7     Single/Mobile/             5.3      8.3         7.1        13.1        5.0        9.1
          Unattached
    8     Advantage                 33.6    10.1         12.2        27.2       12.4       20.0
          Homeowner
          TOTAL                    100.0   100.0       100.0       100.0       100.0      100.0
Green circles highlight highest percentages for race and ethnicity (column)
Red squares highlight highest percentages for cluster (row)
Note All Around Average I and II categories are fairly equally distributed
Target Marketing
Target Marketing
                Target Marketing
Oklahoma City         Tulsa
      Census Outreach




Partnerships
                                              Partnerships
National, regional and local components

• Goal to mobilize community leaders in all eight clusters

• Emphasize partnerships among Hard-to-Count (HTC) populations
   – Single/Unattached/Mobiles
   – Ethnic Enclave I & II
   – Economically Disadvantaged I & II

• Want to increase early response rates by
  – Generating public awareness
  – Encouraging “ownership” of results
  – Overcoming fears through Awareness, Education, Motivation
    and Promotional events
                                              Partnerships
Partners encouraged to

• Form Complete Count Committees
• Hold local 2010 kick-off

• Motivate high-level community leaders to support census
• Design ways they can participate as Census Advocate

• Publicize at festivals, parades and special events
• Educate about importance of being counted

• Urge local constituents to apply for a census job
• Remind public that two programs exist – Census and ACS

• Identify appropriate local media outlets
• Develop local campaigns
                                              Partnerships
Three examples

State Data Center / Business and Industry Data Center and Affiliates
• Review Census Bureau’s 2010 Planning Database
• Help develop / distribute promotional material to be used “as is” or
   further customized
Tribal Liaison Program
• Establish government-to-government relationships
• Authenticate Census Bureau presence on tribal lands during 2010
   Census
Census in Schools
• Follow-up highly successful Census 2000 program with K-12; adult
  education; literacy programs
• Provide curriculum lesson plans, web presence, inroads to HTC
  groups
         Census Outreach




Language Assistance
                               Language Assistance
When people have difficulty speaking or reading English

•   In-person, operator, internet, or form based language assistance
     – Telephone Questionnaire Assistance (TQA)
     – Be Counted Centers (BCC)
     – Questionnaire Assistance Centers (QAC)
     – Language Assistance Guides (LAG)
     – Language Identification Flashcards (LIF)

•   Primary language assistance will be provided for
     English              Spanish            Chinese (simplified and formal)
     Russian              Korean                     Vietnamese

•   Further assistance will be provided in as many as 50 or more languages,
    depending on method of delivery
                            Language Assistance

Bilingual mailings

• Targeted mailing of 10 million bilingual Spanish/English questionnaires
  in 42 states plus D.C.
• Going to tracts with high concentration of "Spanish Assistance"
  households
   – Defined as those in which no person aged 15+ reports speaking
      English "very well"
• Questionnaires display both English and Spanish Telephone
  Questionnaire Assistance (TQA) telephone numbers
     Census Outreach




Recruitment
                                              Recruitment

A big need

• Two big recruitment drives
        • National Address Canvassing - October 2008 to April 2009
        • Non Response Follow Up - October 2009 to April 2010
• Need approximately 3 million applicants for a good applicant pool
• Hire 500,000 enumerators in 2010
• Toll-free Jobs Line
   – 1-888-340-7525
• Recruiting websites
   – http://www.census.gov/2010census/jobs/
   – http://www.census.gov/rokan/www/emply.html
• Multilingual applicants needed
             Local Census Offices

Early Local Census Offices (ELCO) Opening Fall 2008
• Oklahoma City
• Tulsa

Now hiring in Oklahoma
• Local Census Office Manager
• Assistant Manager for Administration
• Assistant Manager for Recruiting
• Assistant Manager for Field Operations
• Assistant Manager for Quality Assurance
• Assistant Manager for Technology
About Those Handhelds…
                              About Those Handhelds…

   Background

   •   $595 million contract with Harris Corp. awarded in 2006
   •   For delivery of over 525,000 handhelds for use in Census 2010
   •   To be used in Non Response Follow-Up (NRFU)
   •   Census expected the following benefits
        – Faster field communication with HQ
        – Instant GPS location verification
        – Electronic data transmission
        – Reduction of entry error
        – Reduction of multiple visits to non-responding households
        – Significant cost savings


Source: Netxgov http://www.nextgov.com/nextgov/ng_20080403_9574.php
                     About Those Handhelds…

What happened

• In April 2008, Census officially scrapped plans to use handheld
  devices during Non Response Follow Up process
   – Due to “…significant schedule, performance and cost issues.”
   – “A lack of effective communication with one of our key
      contractors has significantly contributed to the challenges.”
        Both from prepared statement by US Department of Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez


• Census is returning to paper based Non Response Follow Up

• Process will be similar to what was done under previous decennial
  operations
                  About Those Handhelds…

The fallout

• 2010 Census estimated to cost $11.5 billion before returning to
  paper
• Redesign adds an estimated $2.5 to $3 billion to overall cost
   – Could be at lower end if more people respond to initial mail-out
• Populations least likely to return complete Census forms among
  those most affected by the change
   – Minorities
   – Immigrants
   – Poor
• Census Bureau is seemingly under attack from all fronts
   – But they are responding quickly
   – And they need community involvement
Timeline
                                                        Timeline
2008 Geographic Programs

• Boundary Annexation Survey
   – Contact, training, registration, and material mail-out
   – Information returned by May 31st incorporated into 2009 BAS
• Local Update of Census Addresses
   – Census begins to receive and incorporate Master Address File
     and TIGER database updates
• Participant Statistical Areas Program & Tribal Statistical Areas
  Program
   – Initial contact, training, registration, and mail-out of materials
• Redistricting
   – Begin gathering voting district/block boundary suggestions
• School District Review Program
   – Review, update, and verify boundaries
                                                     Timeline
2008 Outreach

• Early Local Census Offices
   – Recruiting begins for paid staff positions
   – Offices open in Tulsa and Oklahoma City
• Marketing
   – Building regional and local partnerships
   – Dec. 08 Draftfcb will provide Census Bureau for their approval
     an idea of which media vehicles they would like to use for each
     target audience
• American Community Survey
   – Reporting 2007 results
       • Geographies of 65,000+ in August/September
       • Geographies of 20,000+ in December
   – Reporting three-year averages in December release
                                                       Timeline
2009 Geographic Programs

• Boundary Annexation Survey
   – Contact, training, registration, and material mail-out
• Local Update of Census Addresses
   – Feedback and appeal, depending on participation level
       • Option 1 or 2 participants yes
       • Option 3 participants no
   – Address canvassing in earnest
   – Group quarters validation
• Participant Statistical Areas Program & Tribal Statistical Areas
  Program
   – Review, update and verify boundaries
• Redistricting
   – Review, update and verify voting district/block boundaries
                                                     Timeline

2009 Outreach

• Marketing
   – Expand partnerships
   – Begin educational outreach to the “hard to count” populations
   – Launch “Census in Schools” program

• American Community Survey
   – Reporting 2008 data
      • Geographies of 65,000+ receive single year data
      • Geographies of 20,000+ receive three-year averages
                                                     Timeline

2010 The Big Show

• April 1st - Census Day!

• Geographic Programs
   – BAS, LUCA, PSAP, Redistricting, SDRP, TSAP
      • All programs are fully incorporated into the 2010 process

• Marketing
   – Mass Media launch, inviting and ethnic segment audiences to
     participate
   – All marketing activities peak with operational mailings
                                                   Timeline

2010 The Big Show

• American Community Survey
   – Reporting 2009 data
      • Geographies of 65,000+ receive single year data
      • Geographies of 20,000+ receive three-year averages

• Enumeration and Non-Response Follow Up

• Data due to the President no later than December 31, 2010
                                                  Timeline

2011 Data At Last

• Decennial Census
   – Census Bureau begins publishing results

• American Community Survey
   – Reporting 2010 data
      • Geographies of 65,000+ receive single year data
      • Geographies of 20,000+ receive three-year averages
      • Smaller Geographies receive five-year averages
                           Websites


Census Bureau’s 2010 Census website
 http://www.census.gov/2010census/

OK Department of Commerce website
 http://www.okcommerce.gov/data
Steve Barker
State Data Center Program Manager
steven_barker@okcommerce.gov
(405) 815-5182

				
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