Contact Lens Market Research - PowerPoint

Document Sample
Contact Lens Market Research - PowerPoint Powered By Docstoc
					2nd Quarter 2009 US Optical
Market Overview and Outlook
                                October 4th, 2009

Steve Kodey, Director of Industry Research
                        The Vision Council
  *Please note that the VisionWatch information in this
    presentation is for the sole use of Vision Council
 companies only and cannot be distributed in any form
 to non-members without consent from Jobson Optical
            Research or The Vision Council.
       VisionWatch
 Changes to the Program and
What It Means for SRD Members
                Changes to the Program
   January 2008:
       > Vendor Change Ocucom         TNS
       > Change to Questionnaire
       > Change to Income Sampling and Weighting
   June 2008:
       > Vendor Change TNS         Ocucom
       > Change to Price Edits and Allocations
       > Improved Data Processing Techniques
   June 2009:
       > Internalization of Report Writing (Faster Report Delivery)
       > Development of ―Up to $30‖ Plano Sunglass Report
   January 2010:
       > Possible Change of Sample Vendor (to improve quality of
         raw data)
       > Possible Improvement to the Method of Collecting Retailer
         Share Data

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
  Changes to the Price Edits and Retailer
                Allocation
 Prior to June of 2008:
    > Older system developed in the 1990s was used
    > Edits only applied at the channel level or brand level
    > Sometimes led to inconsistencies between retailers and
      channels.
 Now:
    > A detailed pricing mechanism looking at:
       » Retailer
       » Channel
       » Brand
       » Price
    > More interactive, more accurate, checking mechanism
 No Impact on Topline Unit Sales or Demographic
  Shares

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
       New Data vs. Old Data: Differences
 Shares by Channel of Trade (and Retailer):
    > Especially department stores, sunglass specialty stores,
      mass merchants, drug and grocery.
 Average Retail Selling Price:
    > Increased from $18-$20 per pair to $34-$36 per pair.
       » Result of newer more accurate price edit rules
 New Industry Dollar Volume (Annual Revenues):
    > Increased from $2.2 Billion to $3.5 Billion.
       » Result of higher average selling prices
 Change in Purchasing Patterns for Different Income
  Groups:
    > Minimal affect on topline purchasing activity, effect mostly
      individual retailer shares and demographic breakdowns


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
    Channel Unit Shares During the 12ME Period
        Mar.09 Under Different Guidelines
                     New Methodology New Methodology                     OLD Methodology
                       and New AHI     and OLD AHI    OLD Methodology      and OLD AHI
                         Weights         Weights     and New AHI Weights     Weights
Total                   100.0%            100.0%            100.0%                  100.0%

Optical
Independent              1.5%              1.4%              3.6%                    3.4%
Optical Chain            1.4%              1.3%
Sunglass specialty       7.9%              7.6%              8.0%                    7.8%
Sport                    2.5%              2.4%              7.1%                    6.8%
Better Dept &
Specialty Stores          3.9%             3.8%              5.3%                    5.0%
Warehouse Club            2.2%             2.0%              0.7%                    0.6%
Grocery                   0.9%             1.1%              7.0%                    7.3%
Drug                      8.8%             8.5%             10.2%                   10.6%
Mass                     30.0%            29.3%             27.0%                   27.8%
Flea Market               2.5%             2.6%              1.8%                    1.8%
Other                    38.4%            40.0%             29.3%                   28.9%


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of        The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
Channel Average Prices During the 12ME Period
      Mar.09 Under Different Guidelines
                     New Methodology New Methodology                     OLD Methodology
                       and New AHI     and OLD AHI    OLD Methodology      and OLD AHI
                         Weights         Weights     and New AHI Weights     Weights
Total                    $35.27           $34.22            $17.88                  $17.44

Optical
Independent             $127.81          $125.78            $97.86                  $96.42
Optical Chain           $180.47          $183.44            $97.86                  $96.42
Sunglass specialty      $154.82          $155.74            $89.79                  $89.75
Sport                    $54.30           $53.85            $16.78                  $16.17
Better Dept &
Specialty Stores         $99.89           $97.60            $19.08                  $18.71
Warehouse Club           $62.78           $60.08            $56.45                  $56.01
Grocery                  $14.34           $14.46             $9.87                   $9.83
Drug                     $16.67           $16.81             $8.29                   $8.35
Mass                     $14.50           $14.70             $7.00                   $6.96
Flea Market              $12.68           $11.72             $9.94                   $9.00
Other                    $14.21           $13.44             $7.68                   $7.36

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of        The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
      September Custom Slot Experiment
 VW Custom Slot Research Opportunities
    > Allows us to survey consumers each month about
      special topics and subjects.
 September 2009 Survey:
    > Will Interview 3,000 to 4,000 recent plano sunglass
      buyers
    > We‘ll ask buyers to type in the name of the retailer
      where they made their last purchase.
         > Could lead to a permanent change in the survey if results
           prove a change is worthwhile
    > We‘re also asking about:
         > Number of multiple pair purchases
         > Purchase motivation factors for sunglass buyers (past
           and future).


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
  New ―Up to $30‖ Plano Sunglass Report

 New Report That Was Released in June 2009
    > Examines plano sunglass sales priced at less than
      $30 per pair
 Includes:
    > Topline Unit and Dollar Sales Data Points
    > Demographic Composition of Purchases
         > Age, Gender, Region, Annual Household Income
    > Unit and Dollar Shares by Channel of Trade:
         > The same categories and groups used to look at the total
           sunglass market.




VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
Trends in Vision Correction:

  Is America Seeing Clearly?
Percentage of American Adults Using Any Form of Vision
       Correction within Gender and Age Groups
                                                               76.5%
  Total                                                       75.2%
                                                               75.0%


                                                              74.7%
   Male                                                      73.7%
                                                            72.1%
                                                                 78.1%
Female                                                          76.6%
                                                                 77.8%
                                                                            12ME Jun07
                                                61.3%                       12ME Jun08
18 to 34                                      58.8%
                                                61.0%
                                                    65.1%
                                                                            12ME Jun09
35 to 44                                          62.8%
                                                  62.9%
                                                                          87.0%
45 to 54                                                                85.2%
                                                                       83.7%
                                                                                94.8%
    55+                                                                       93.1%
                                                                            90.9%

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson     Annual Sample Size: 100,000
  Vision Correction Usage: June ‗08 and June ‗09
                                    In Millions of People
  193.2 196.9                                  •Categories: the number of US residents 18+ who
                                               use the vision correction alternative all or any
                                               part of the time
                    146.7146.7
                                               • Some people use more than 1 vision correction
                                               alternative

                                                                 12ME Jun08                12ME Jun09



                                       34.5 35.3
                                                         24.8 25.6
                                                                          11.9 12.4         8.7 9.7

   Plano    Eyeglasses                 Contact           Readers         'Squinters'        Surgery*
 Sunglasses                            Lenses
 ‗Squinters‘: US residents who say that they need vision correction, but do not use any
* Surgery is the sum of US residents having ever had refractive surgery; not counted as vision correction users


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of                The Vision Council & Jobson          Annual Sample Size: 100,000
Overall Market Performance By
         Market Sector
    Vision Care Products & Services – Total U.S. Market
                    Breakout—In Millions
           -1.2%
 -1.0%                   In Millions
             $9,612
                         All Retail*             12ME Jun07
     $8,417                                 Inflation not taken into consideration                             12ME Jun08
                                                                                                               12ME Jun09
                                                                                                   +6.4%
                                        +5.6%               -7.0%                                           $4,878
                                                                                                                      -29.6%
                                              $3,540               $3,526
                                                                                                                                 $2,118
                                                                                +6.5%
                                                                                         $629


Frames               Lenses         Contact Lenses         Sunglasses*         OTC Readers         Examinations** Refractive Surgery
*All retail includes dollars spent at all retail types at any retail location on the sale of either spectacle lenses (including Rx
sun), frames, contact lenses, sunglasses (plano), OTC readers, or revenue earned from refractive surgery (LASIK only) or
eye examinations. This number does not include sunglass clips and reflects the dollars spent only by those U.S. residents
18 and older. Does not include retail dollars spent by/for contact lenses and exams for those 17 years of age and younger.

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of                        The Vision Council & Jobson                Annual Sample Size: 100,000
Plano Sunglasses
  OTC Readers
                    Percentage of Adults Currently
                      Wearing Plano Sunglasses
                                                       84.7%
Total wearing                                        84.3%                   12ME Jun07
                                                        84.9%
 sunglasses                                                                  12ME Jun08
                                         81.8%
        Male                            81.6%                                12ME Jun09
                                             82.6%
                                                                    87.4%
     Female                                                      86.8%
                                                                  87.1%



                                                               86.3%
     18 to 34                                             85.3%
                                                                  86.9%
                                                                      87.8%
     35 to 44                                                         87.8%
                                                                       87.9%
                                                      84.7%
     45 to 54                                         84.6%
                                                      84.6%
                                   80.6%
         55+                        80.8%
                                      81.3%




 VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
                    Percentage of Adults Currently
                     Wearing Clip-on Sunglasses
                     11.5%
Total wearing       11.1%
                    10.6%
 Clip-ons

                       12.7%                                      12ME Jun07
        Male           12.4%
                     11.1%
                    10.4%                                         12ME Jun08
     Female         9.8%
                    10.1%
                                                                  12ME Jun09
                 6.6%
     18 to 34   5.9%
                5.5%
                    9.1%
     35 to 44      8.5%
                  7.3%
                         14.2%
     45 to 54          12.3%
                        13.0%
                            17.0%
         55+              15.7%
                          16.2%




VisionWatch: A Collaboration of     The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
      Plano Sunglass Retail Sales – Dollars & Units
                                                                     Units
Retail Dollars                              12ME Jun07                                          12ME Jun07
 (In Millions)                                                   (In Millions)
                                            12ME Jun08                                          12ME Jun08
                          $3,861.7          12ME Jun09                                          12ME Jun09
           $3,789.8
                                         $3,525.8

                                                                     112.2        113.8



                                                                                               101.2




                      -8.7% 2009 against 2008                          -11.1% 2009 against 2008
                      -7.0% 2009 against 2007                          -9.8% 2009 against 2007
Nominal $s – Not revised for Inflation


    VisionWatch: A Collaboration of                 The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
    US Plano Sunglass Retail Sales 12ME Jun.
           2009 By Channel (Millions)
                 Retail Value ($Millions)                   Units (Millions)
                                                                                         $1,174.1
     Sunglass specialty
                                    8.2

Grocery/Drug/Mass/Club
                                                                $602.9
                                                                   33.0

      Better Dept Store                            $380.8
                              3.7

          Optical Chain
                                          $246.8
                           1.5

    Optical Independent
                                     $201.0
                           1.5

                 Sport            $134.0
                            2.5

            Flea Market
                          $28.2
                            2.3

   VisionWatch: A Collaboration of             The Vision Council & Jobson     Annual Sample Size: 100,000
   High-End Designer Sunglass Sales as a
   Percentage of All Plano Sunglass Sales
                                                67.20%
                             Dollar Value
                             65.50%


                                                          62.80%
     62.10%      62.10%
                                                                                    61.80%




12ME Jun04    12ME Jun05   12ME Jun06    12ME Jun07      12ME Jun08          12ME Jun09

                              Units--Pairs
                                           14.70%
                             14.30%                        14.10%
                 13.30%
     12.90%

                                                                              13.00%



12ME Jun04    12ME Jun05   12ME Jun06    12ME Jun07      12ME Jun08          12ME Jun09

VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
                        Percentage of Adults Currently
                            Wearing OTC Readers
                            11.2%
Total wearing               10.8%
                            11.0%
OTC Readers

                             11.5%                                            12ME Jun07
        Male                 11.2%
                            10.8%
                            10.9%                                             12ME Jun08
     Female                 10.5%
                             11.3%
                                                                              12ME Jun09
                0.8%
     18 to 34   0.9%
                 1.7%
                   3.7%
     35 to 44      3.4%
                     5.0%
                                       23.4%
     45 to 54                        21.1%
                                    20.9%
                                    20.3%
         55+                      18.9%
                                 17.8%


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of                The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
             OTC Readers Wearers & Purchases
      Ages 18+                      In millions

              Number of People Wearing                 Number of Pairs Sold
                                                       42.4                       42.6
                                40.1
             37.2


                         25.3                   24.8                      25.6
      23.6




      12ME Jun06        12ME Jun07             12ME Jun08                12ME Jun09
Repurchase Cycle
       0.63 years         0.63 years              0.58 years              0.60 years

  VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
     Retail Structure of Readers Market (Dollars)
                                                                               % change
                                                                                08/09 absolute #

           $590.8M                  $630.4M                        $629.3M             -0.2%
               4.8%                     4.5%                            4.6%          +2.0%
Independents
               6.9%                     7.1%                            7.0%           -1.6%

Chains


Grocery/ Drug/
Mass/          78.4%                   75.8%                           76.1%
Convenience                                                                          +0.2%
Other




               9.9%                    12.6%                           12.3%          -2.6%

           12ME Jun07               12ME Jun08                     12ME Jun09
VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
                                                                                                        2008 Annual Meeting  24


OTC Readers Dollar Sales Trends: Grocery / Drug /
             Mass / Convenience
                                                  12ME OTC Readers Sales (in Millions)
$500                                              Percentage of Industry Growth Attributable to Channel                      100%


                                                                                                                             80%


                                                                                                                             60%


$400                                                                                                                         40%


                                                                                                                             20%


                                                                                                                             0%


$300                                                                                                                         -20%
        04




                                            05




                                                                                06




                                                                                07




                                                                                08




                                                                                09
                 04




                                                     05




                                                                                 6




                                                                                 7




                                                                                 8




                                                                                 9
                          4

                                    4




                                                              5


                                                                                 5




                                                                                 6


                                                                                 6




                                                                                 7


                                                                                 7




                                                                                 8

                                                                                 8
                                  c0




                                                                              c0




                                                                              c0




                                                                              c0




                                                                              c0
                                                                              n0




                                                                              n0




                                                                              n0




                                                                              n0
                         p0




                                                             p0




                                                                             p0




                                                                             p0




                                                                             p0
        ar




                                         ar




                                                                             ar




                                                                             ar




                                                                             ar




                                                                             ar
                  n




                                                     n
                                De




                                                                           De




                                                                           De




                                                                           De




                                                                           De
                       Se




                                                           Se




                                                                           Se




                                                                           Se




                                                                           Se
               Ju




                                                  Ju




                                                                           Ju




                                                                           Ju




                                                                           Ju




                                                                           Ju
       M




                                        M




                                                                           M




                                                                           M




                                                                           M




                                                                           M
             E




                                                 E




                                                                         E




                                                                         E




                                                                         E




                                                                         E
                      E

                              E




                                                          E


                                                                  E




                                                                         E


                                                                         E




                                                                         E


                                                                         E




                                                                         E

                                                                         E
   E




                                        E




                                                                        E




                                                                        E




                                                                        E




                                                                        E
           M




                                              M




                                                                       M




                                                                       M




                                                                       M




                                                                       M
                   M

                            M




                                                       M


                                                                M




                                                                       M


                                                                       M




                                                                       M


                                                                       M




                                                                       M

                                                                       M
   M




                                    M




                                                                      M




                                                                      M




                                                                      M




                                                                      M
         12




                                            12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12
                 12

                          12




                                                     12


                                                              12




                                                                    12


                                                                    12




                                                                    12


                                                                    12




                                                                    12

                                                                    12
 12




                                  12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12




                                                                    12
  VisionWatch: A Collaboration of                                     The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
                                                                    2008 Annual Meeting  25



 Number of Readers Pairs Bought Per Purchase
                                              Grocery / Drug / Mass /
       All Retailers                              Convenience
    1.7 Pairs Per Purchase
                                                 2.2 Pairs Per Purchase


                                                                1 Pair,
                1 Pair,                                         42.1%
                53.4%
 3+
Pairs,                                       3+ Pairs,
17.2%                                         19.3%


                                                                          2 Pairs,
           2 Pairs,                                                        38.6%
            29.4%


VisionWatch: A Collaboration of   The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000
2009 / 2010 Outlook
       Key Points: Future Outlook
 A Slumping Economy, Jittery Consumers
  > Poor Economic Conditions Continue
     » Rising Unemployment, Layoffs, Bleak Employment
       Outlook
     » Fear of Inflation Returning as Gov. Spending Soars
     » Flat Productivity
     » Credit Crunch Refuses to Loosen
  > Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence Near
    All Time Lows
  > Housing Market Continues to Remain Shaky
 Optical Specific
  > Purchase Intent Down for Eyeglasses and Eyewear
  > Exam Intent is Flat Contributing to the Problem
  > Contact Lens Purchase Intent is Up, LASIK is Down
    Drastically
               The Silver Lining
 Government Spending Seems to Be Slowing the
  Recession
   > More Economic Stimulus Money Could Raise Consumer
     Spending and Consumer Confidence
 Leading Economic and Optical Specific Indicators
  Are Rising…From Very Low Levels
 Gas Prices Are Relatively Low…For Now
 Stock Market is Up; Feeling is that the Worst is
  Behind Us; Recession May be Over After Q3 2009
 The Optical Industry is Somewhat Insulated from
  Declines in General Retail Spending
$50+ Plano Sunglass Future Purchase Intent
                           Rolling 6 Month Averages
           An index based on likelihood to purchase in the next six months
               Each point is the average score for the six month period




       113                                   114
    109    111109                   109110110    111
                                                    106
                 104          103105
                        99 100                         100100100 99
                                                                                          94




VisionWatch: A Collaboration of    The Vision Council & Jobson   Annual Sample Size: 100,000   *
  Rate of change for general retail goods & eyewear
  purchases over the past year due to the economy.
                                    65.2%




                                            36.2%
                                28.5%                        26.5%


                                                    14.1%            14.4%

  4.1%            4.4%
         2.5%            3.2%                                                 0.3% 0.6%

Increased A Lot   Increased     No Change   Decreased       Decreased A Lot   No Answer
                   Slightly                  Slightly

                   General Retail Goods                        Eyewear

             Custom Research: April 2009 Economic Situation Study
    When you make your next purchase of plano
   sunglasses, which of the following might apply?
       35.7%
                     34.0%
                 32.3%
  28.3%
                                     Under 45 Years Old               Over 45 Years Old

                               23.2%
                                    19.2%                                              19.8%


                                                                         12.1%
                                                                                             11.8%
                                                                              9.4%
                                              6.4%
                                                     3.5%   3.7%
                                                                3.4%


    I will not   I will use my I will search I will use the I will buy     I will only I will spend
   change my        current    harder for the Internet to multiple pairs purchase one less than I
     buying       sunglasses    best value. buy my next of sunglasses        pair of   have in the
    behavior.     for a longer                  pair of      at once.     sunglasses    past when
                   period of                  sunglasses.                                 buying
                      time.                                                            sunglasses.

Custom Research: April 2009 Economic Situation Study
      When you make your next purchase of OTC
     Readers, which of the following might apply?
                      38.6%
     36.3%
                  30.8%                                      Men      Women
          28.3%

                                     20.5%
                                18.7%

                                                                        11.0%11.8%        11.0%
                                                               8.7%                   8.8%
                                                           6.6%
                                              1.1%2.4%

      I will not I will use my I will search I will use the I will buy   I will only I will spend
     change my      current   harder for the Internet to multiple pairspurchase one less than I
       buying    readers for a best value. buy my next of readers at       pair of   have in the
      behavior. longer period                    pair of      once.       readers.    past when
                    of time.                    readers.                                buying
                                                                                       readers.

Custom Research: April 2009 Economic Situation Study
QUESTIONS
           Steve Kodey
     The Vision Council

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: Contact Lens Market Research document sample